Announcement

**Udog** · 04-27-2019, 08:33 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

— Arizona traded QB Josh Rosen to Miami for a 2nd round draft pick.

— Warriors 129, Clippers 110— Durant had 38 points at halftime.

— Bronx 7, Giants 3— SF scored its first 1st-inning run this season.

— There were 18 trades made at the NFL Draft Friday.

— 12 of 14 SEC teams had a player taken in rounds 1-3 of the draft; only Arkansas/Tennessee didn’t- Baylor WR Jalen Hurd started his career as a RB at Tennessee.

— Virginia’s national championship basketball team declined an invitation to visit the White House.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Last winter, Texas Tech fired its football coach; just a few weeks ago, Arkansas fired its basketball coach. How did both of these guys wind up with better jobs?

Kliff Kingsbury is now head coach of the Arizona Cardinals; Mike Anderson jumps from the Razorbacks of the SEC to St John’s in the Big East.

Life can be strange.

12) This week, the governors of Indiana, Iowa, Montana all had sports betting bills on their desks; New Jersey has a thriving sports betting business going. Meanwhile, here in the state I live in, the state of New York (some say I live in a state of confusion, but they mean something else) is dragging its feet on sports betting. God forbid some of us have fun here.

11) Tuesday night, Damian Lillard hit a 30-footer to send Oklahoma City home for the summer; Paul George called it “…..a bad shot.” But was it?

Research shows that this season, Lillard is 20-54 (37%) from that distance, which is an unusually high %age for such a long shot (30-40 feet). I’m guessing Billy Donovan was happy enough with his defense when Lillard launched the shot, but then it went in and it was game over for the Thunder.

If you double-team Lillard and force him to pass, he’ll find the open man, but would you rather have that open (lesser shooter) person take the shot?

10) Portland’s Enes Kanter after the Trailblazers beat Oklahoma City: “First I would like to definitely thank the Knicks for waiving me.” Wow.

9) There is NOTHING in sports as dramatic as overtime in Game 7 of an NHL playoff series, and it really isn’t very close.

8) Eight teams left in NHL playoffs, but once again, no Canadian franchise will win the Stanley Cup. Last time a Canadian franchise won the Cup? Montreal in 1993.

7) From Howard Balzer: “Word is that small hands (9 inches) behind absence of QB Drew Lock from first round of the draft. Used smaller ball at Missouri. Hand size of Kyler Murray, 9 1/2; Dwayne Haskins 9 5/8; Daniel Jones 9 3/4.”

Jared Goff also has 9” hands, and he’s doing pretty well in the NFL.

6) Tampa Bay Rays’ utility guy Joey Wendle hit .300 LY with 61 RBI; he was a valuable guy. He had already missed 17 games this year with a hamstring injury, then he got hit with a pitch and broke his wrist Wednesday. Tough start to this season for him.

5) Blake Griffin played 28:00 in Game 4 of the Pistons’ playoff loss to Milwaukee Monday nite; less than 48 hours later, he had his knee scoped in Los Angeles.

4) Former Houston Texans’ QB David Carr was on NFL Network the other night, ranking the QB’s from this year’s draft AND last year’s draft. He ranked Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson 8th out of the nine QB’s ranked, which seems ridiculous to me.

Jackson started seven NFL games last year and was 6-1 as a starter; he may not be a great passer, but he started seven games and won six for a team that was 4-5 with Joe Flacco starting; Jackson ran for 95+ yards in three games. His talent is unique to the league; there is no bleeping way a college kid is better than he is right now.

3) Blue Jays’ 1B Justin Smoak was in the lineup last night when Vladimir Guerrero Jr made his MLB debut. When Smoak made his MLB debut for Texas in 2010, the Rangers’ DH that night was Vladimir Guerrero Sr.

2) Missouri, Oklahoma, Wichita State all offered QB Drew Lock basketball scholarships; he went to Missouri and played football, and last night Denver picked him in the second round.

1) Happy birthday to the great Al Pacino, who turned 79 this week. My three favorite Pacino movies: 1) Any Given Sunday 2) Heat 3) Frankie and Johnnie

**Udog** · 04-27-2019, 08:37 AM

**Udog** · 04-27-2019, 09:31 AM

Saturday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Eastern Conference Second Round – Game 1

No. 3 Philadelphia at No. 2 Toronto (TNT, 7:35 p.m. ET)

2018-19 Regular Season (Raptors 3-1, Over 2-2)
Oct. 30 - Raptors (-6) 129 vs. 76ers 112 (Over 227.5)
Dec. 5 – Raptors (-6.5) 113 vs. 76ers 102 (Under 229)
Dec. 22 – 76ers (-7) 126 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 221)
Feb. 5 – Raptors (+2) 119 at 76ers 107 (Under 230)

Both the Raptors and 76ers were expected to make the second round of the playoffs, but nobody predicted each of these Atlantic division squads would lose their postseason opener. Toronto and Philadelphia each overcame early upsets to win four consecutive games and advance to the conference semifinals for the second straight season.

The Raptors were tripped up by the Magic on a last-second three-pointer in Game 1, but Toronto roared back with four wins in a row, including three by double-digits. Toronto’s defense clamped down after allowing 104 points in the series opener as the Raptors yielded 82, 93, 85, and 96 points to move onto the second round of the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.

Kawhi Leonard stepped up in his first postseason in a Raptors’ uniform by averaging 27.8 points per game, including a 37-point performance in a Game 2 blowout of Orlando. Forward Pascal Siakam averaged 16.9 ppg in the regular season, but was a force in the opening round by scoring 22.6 ppg, including racking up a pair of double-doubles.

The 76ers fell behind early in Game 1 against the Nets and couldn’t recover in a 111-102 defeat as 7 ½-point home favorites. Philadelphia rebounded nicely in Game 2 by dropping 145 points on Brooklyn, including a monster 51-point output in the third quarter of a 145-123 blowout. Six 76ers scored at least 15 points and that group didn’t include Jimmy Butler, who was limited to seven points.

The Sixers traveled to Barclays Center for Game 3 and played without star center Joel Embiid, but Philadelphia rolled to a 131-115 victory behind 31 points from Ben Simmons on 11-of-13 shooting from the floor. Embiid showed no signs of rust in Game 4 as the Sixers rallied past the Nets, 112-108 as Philadelphia improved to 4-0 on the road in the first round the last two postseasons. The Sixers finished off the series in Game 5 after jumping out to a 23-2 lead in a 122-100 blowout as nine-point favorites.

Toronto captured three of four regular season meetings, including both matchups at Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors rolled past the Sixers in late October, 129-112 to cash as six-point favorites, led by Leonard’s 31 points. Toronto beat Philadelphia again at home in early December, 113-102 as Leonard and Butler went back and forth scoring. Leonard finished with 36 points, while Butler posted 38 points in his first matchup with Toronto after getting dealt by Minnesota.

Philadelphia broke through against Toronto in the third matchup, 126-101 at Wells Fargo Center as the Sixers outscored the Raptors by 19 points in the second half. Leonard didn’t suit up for Toronto, while Embiid posted a double-double with 27 points and 11 rebounds. The Raptors won the final meeting in Philadelphia, 119-107 as Toronto went into halftime owning a 17-point halftime edge. Leonard was limited to 3-of-11 shooting from the floor, but hit 16 free throws to lead Toronto with 24 points.

After losing to the Magic in their first-round opener at home, the Raptors dropped to 2-14 all-time in postseason Game 1s. Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes that record is factored into the opening number of this series, which is the Raptors -5.

He explained, “As a bettor, it’s tough to trust Toronto as a home favorite in the playoffs. Since the 2014 postseason, the club has gone 15-10 SU and 9-15-1 ATS. However, The Raptors did trounce the Magic by double digits in Game 2 and 5 behind an offense that averaged 113 PPG. In three wins and covers in last year’s playoffs versus the Wizards, the attack posted 117.3 PPG.”

David feels that the poor ATS playoff records for Toronto at home could be overlooked by its recent domination of Philadelphia. He added, “This Philadelphia squad is certainly more talented than Orlando and Washington but it’s had plenty of trouble against Toronto. Ignoring the fact that the Raptors have gone 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight encounters with the 76ers would be foolish. Toronto has big advantages in three key categories – defense, 3-point shooting and depth. Knowing Philadelphia hasn’t won in Canada since 2012 makes it tough to trust the ‘dog come Saturday but the oddsmakers have me scratching my head. Since Philly became competitive again, it was getting 6 to 9 points in its last four trips to Toronto. Now the line is five?”

Game 7 – Spurs at Nuggets – 10:05 PM EST – TNT

Series tied at 3-3

The lone Game 7 to take place in this season’s chalk-heavy playoffs is between a #2 and #7 seed. Denver and San Antonio were separated by six games in the regular season, so the Spurs forcing a seventh game shouldn’t be a huge shocker. However, the last four contests in this series have been decided by double-digits, while San Antonio has lost two games after squandering leads of 19 in Game 2 and 12 in Game 4.

The Spurs gave up another double-digit advantage in Game 6 after leading 34-24 following one quarter. Denver rallied to go in front in the second quarter, but the Spurs closed out strong to lead by four at halftime. San Antonio pulled away in the fourth quarter to grab a crucial 120-103 victory and reach a seventh game for the first time since the 2015 first round against the Clippers.

The key to San Antonio’s success in Game 6 was shooting extremely well as the Spurs knocked down 57% of their shots from the floor, including an efficient 12-of-16 performance from DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs’ guard scored 25 points, while LaMarcus Aldridge paced San Antonio with 26 points and veteran Rudy Gay dropped in 19 points off the bench. The Nuggets’ bench produced only 13 points, while Nikola Jokic carried the load for Denver with a career-high 43 points.

The OVER has hit in four of six games in this series as the two UNDERS have come at Pepsi Center in Games 1 and 5. In four of five meetings in Denver this season, the Spurs and Nuggets have seen the UNDER cash as the totals in this series have fluctuated between 208 and 210 ½ (Saturday’s total sits at 209).

Last season, four series reached a Game 7 as the home team went 2-2 in those contests. In the conference finals, both road teams (Cleveland and Golden State) captured victories on their way to the NBA Finals. San Antonio last picked up a Game 7 win in the opening round of the 2014 playoffs against Dallas as that Spurs’ squad eventually won the NBA title. Denver hasn’t won a Game 7 in the postseason since the 1978 semifinals against Milwaukee, while falling to the Lakers in its previous Game 7 appearance in the 2012 opening round.

**Udog** · 04-27-2019, 09:36 AM

541San Antonio -542 Denver
SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 ATS (16.5 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

553Philadelphia -554 Toronto
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after a division game in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 27

Philadelphia @ Toronto

Game 553-554
April 27, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
120.889
Toronto
130.328
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 9 1/2
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-6 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ Denver

Game 541-542
April 27, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
115.838
Denver
123.341
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 27

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SAN ANTONIO (51 - 37) at DENVER (57 - 31) - 4/27/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1093-959 ATS (+38.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-7 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-7 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (55 - 32) at TORONTO (62 - 25) - 4/27/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 144-116 ATS (+16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 64-46 ATS (+13.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-19 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-57 ATS (+16.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-56 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 208-263 ATS (-81.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 9-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 27

76ers/Raptors both won first round series in five games; both should be well-rested. Philly lost three of four games with Toronto this season, losing by 17-11 points in their two visits to Canada. Three of four series games stayed under the total. Raptors won 11 of last 13 games overall; they covered four of last five home games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. 76ers won six of their last eight games; they covered three of their last four road games. 13 of their last 19 games went over the total.

Home side won 14 of last 16 San Antonio-Denver games. Spurs outscored Denver 30-18 in 4th quarter Thursday, shot 57% from floor and won by 17 to even series 3-3. Home team is 4-2 in this series, with two of three games in this building staying under total. Nuggets were 6-24 on arc in Game 6, after going 44-93 in Games 3-5. SA was +18 in 20:00 with Belinelli on floor in Game 6; Gay scored 19 points in 28:00, as Spurs’ bench played big role in win. Seven of last ten series games stayed under the total.

NBA

Saturday, April 27

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Trend Report
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Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 14 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio's last 12 games on the road
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games at home
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

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**Udog** · 04-27-2019, 09:50 AM

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 132 Game 7’s in playoff history

-- The home team is 104-28 (79%) in those games

-- The 2018 NBA playoffs has had four Game 7's and road teams captured two wins.

Eastern Conference First Round - Cleveland 105 vs. Indiana 101
Eastern Conference First Round - Boston 112 vs. Milwaukee 96
Eastern Conference Finals - Cleveland 87 at Boston 79
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 101 at Houston 92

-- The 2017 NBA playoffs only had two Game 7's and the results were split with the Jazz capturing a rare road victory.

Western Conference First Round - Utah 104 at L.A. Clippers 91
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Boston 115 vs. Washington 105

-- The 2016 NBA playoffs had five Game 7's played and the home team won four games (3-2 ATS), two of the victories coming by double digits.

Eastern Conference First Round - Miami 106 vs. Charlotte 73
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 96 vs. Oklahoma City 88
NBA Finals - Cleveland 93 at Golden State 89

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.

San Antonio Game 7 Recent History

The Spurs have played in 10 Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 4-6 in those contests, losing their last encounter in the 2015 playoffs on the road.

2015 First Round
San Antonio 109 at L.A. Clippers 111

2014 First Round
San Antonio 119 vs. Dallas 96

2013 Finals
San Antonio 88 at Miami 95

Denver Game 7 Recent History

The Nuggets have only played in three Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 1-2 in those games with the last matchup coming in 2012.

2012 First Round
Denver 87 at L.A. Lakers 96

Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/27

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/27

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