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**Udog** · 04-26-2019, 08:26 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Odds to win the two North Divisions in the NFL this year:

NFC North:
8-5: Chicago Bears
2-1: Minnesota Vikings
2-1: Green Bay Packers
14-1: Detroit Lions

AFC North:
5-4: Cleveland Browns
8-5: Pittsburgh Steelers
3-1: Baltimore Ravens
25-1: Cincinnati Bengals

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Notes from watching the NFL Draft

13) Washington Redskins stayed at pick #15 and got QB Dwayne Haskins without trading up; Haskins is from Maryland, but grew up in New Jersey and was a Giant fan. Most people didn’t think Haskins would drop to the 15th pick; the Giants-Redskins games for the next decade should be pretty interesting.

This pretty much clinches fact that Case Keenum won’t be a Redskin in 2020; Washington will be his 4th team in four years this season, and 2020 figures to make it five teams in five years.

12) Bruce Snyder bought the Redskins in 1999. Here is how many head coaches each NFC East team has had since then:
— Washington 7
— Dallas 4
— NJ Giants 4
— Philadelphia 3

When I think of a team with a coach on the hot seat taking a rookie QB, I think of Jeff Fisher getting canned during Jared Goff’s rookie year. Keenum was the Rams’ starting QB before Goff took over in Game 10. You wonder if this is good news for Jay Gruden.

11) New Jersey Giants took Duke QB Daniel Jones with the 6th pick in the draft. Here is what the Giants have done with drafting QB’s the last three years:

2017: Davis Webb, California, 3rd round
2018: Kyle Lauletta, Richmond, 4th round
2019: Daniel Jones, Duke, 1st round

Meanwhile, they keep starting 38-year old Eli Manning, who had the same college coach as Jones (David Cutcliffe). Most draft pundits liked Haskins better than Jones.

Last six years, Giants are 38-59, 0-1 in playoff games. Hard to get better when you waste 3rd and 4th round draft picks on guys you never use.

10) Pittsburgh Steelers traded with Denver to move up ten spots, from #20 to #10 in the first round; this is something the Steelers rarely do. Pittsburgh took LB Devin Bush from Michigan.

Steelers switched 1st round picks with Denver, and also gave the Broncos a 2nd-round and a 3rd-round pick, so it was expensive- they really wanted/needed a linebacker.

9) Last three years, the draft averaged six first-round trades per year; there were seven trades during Thursday’s first round.

— Green Bay traded with Seattle to move up seven spots, from #28 to #21.
— Eagles traded a 4th and 6th-round pick to Baltimore to move up from 25th to 22nd.
— Washington traded to the Colts to move up to the 26th pick.
— Chiefs acquired DE Frank Clark from Seattle, send the Seahawks the 29th pick, plus a couple of other picks.
— Giants acquired the 30th pick in the draft from Seattle so they could take CB Deandre Baker from Georgia.
— Rams traded the 31st pick to Atlanta so the Falcons could take T Kaleb McGary from Washington.

8) Only six of 22 Seahawks starters remain from when Seattle lost the Super Bowl to New England four years ago.

7) Only twice in the common draft era (1990, 2008) had the first round ended with no WR’s taken. This was almost the third time. Iowa had two tight ends taken in the first round. Baltimore finally took Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown with the 25th pick.

This is the longest any NFL Draft has gone with neither a WR or a RB being taken. Oakland took RB Josh Jacobs from Alabama with the 24th pick.

6) Seven of the top ten players taken were defensive players.

5) As of 1:00 Thursday afternoon, 18 of 32 teams had already traded their 7th-round pick in this draft. Three picks were traded twice; one was dealt three times. 7th-round picks are throw-ins in lot of trades.

Then again, Marques Colston, Adam Timmerman, Shannon Sharpe and Gary Anderson (the kicker) were all 7th-round picks.

4) Bengals still have 37 of their own draft picks on their roster, most in NFL, six more than any other team; Buffalo has only 12 of its draft picks, least in the league.

3) People gamble on the NFL Draft, which makes me a little queasy, but thats their business. Haskins was a -$155 favorite to get drafted before Missouri QB Drew Lock.

Speaking of gambling, a guy on ESPN’s Daily Wager Thursday picked Starlin Castro to homer at 8-1 odds in the Marlins’ game in Philly, and sure enough, Castro homered in the 10th inning. Damn good call.

2) Not sure why ESPN and NFL Network both broadcast the draft, but they do. Mel Kiper Jr is worth listening to, and Louis Riddick is very good on ESPN. My man Kurt Warner is on NFL Network, but I prefer Trey Wingo to Rich Eisen as a host, so spent most of my time on ESPN.

The player interviews are generally all terrible, so if one is happening, automatically change to the other station or to a baseball game.

1) Looked like it might’ve been a good night to be a pickpocket in the streets of Nashville; thousands and thousands of people packed in the streets, lot of jostling. I’m just sayin’…….

**Udog** · 04-26-2019, 08:26 AM

**Udog** · 04-26-2019, 09:04 AM

551Boston -552 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the last 3 seasons.

553Philadelphia -554 Toronto
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after a division game in the current season.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, April 26

Golden State @ LA Clippers

Game 533-534
April 26, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
126.307
LA Clippers
113.647
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 12 1/2
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 10
233
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-10); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, April 26

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GOLDEN STATE (60 - 27) at LA CLIPPERS (50 - 37) - 4/26/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-49 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-62 ATS (-21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-44 ATS (-19.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 48-38 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-33 ATS (+4.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 63-46 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 138-103 ATS (+24.7 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 177-221 ATS (-66.1 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 232-292 ATS (-89.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-8 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 26

Road team is 4-1 in this series; Clippers shot 56%/54% from floor in their two series wins, 42.5% or less in their three losses. Average total of first half in these games: 124.8. Golden State won nine of its last 12 games overall; they won 11 of last 15 games with the Clippers, but LA is 7-4 vs spread in last 11 series games. Warriors’ bench was just 7-23 from floor in Game 5; they were -10 in the 7:00 Durant was off floor. Clippers lost six of last nine games overall; over is 13-4-1 in their last 18 games. Golden State was +40 on boards in first four series games, but LA was +3 in Game 5, winning boards for first time in series.

NBA

Friday, April 26

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Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Golden State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Golden State's last 25 games
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 13 games on the road
Golden State is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Golden State's last 16 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Golden State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Clippers is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
LA Clippers is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of LA Clippers's last 18 games
LA Clippers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
LA Clippers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 12 of LA Clippers's last 16 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 04-26-2019, 10:47 AM

Friday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Western Conference First Round – Game 6

No. 1 Golden State at No. 8 L.A. Clippers (ESPN, 10:05 p.m. ET) -- Warriors lead 3-2

Apr. 13 - Warriors (-13.5) 121 vs. Clippers 104 (Under 233)
Apr. 15 - Clippers (+13.5) 135 at Warriors 131 (Over 234)
Apr. 18 - Warriors (-9.5) 132 at Clippers 105 (Over 234)
Apr. 21 - Warriors (-9.5) 113 at Clippers 105 (Under 236)
Apr. 24 - Clippers (+14.5) 129 at Warriors 121 (Over 232.5)

Watching Game 5 of the first-round series between the Warriors and Clippers bordered on surreal. Even if you don’t watch over a thousand games a year like some of us around these parts, you’ve seen enough basketball to know that the best teams always make a run late. It’s what makes engineering an upset so special.

What we saw on Wednesday at Oracle Arena brought back memories of Duke-Louisville this season. If you’re not as up on the college game, a Blue Devils team that featured three players who will be selected in the top half of the lottery found themselves down 23 points with less than 10 minutes to play against a Cardinals team no one really expected much from in 2018-19. Like the Clippers, brighter days are ahead for the ‘Ville, but they were just out there for the participant ribbon over the past season. Zion Williamson and Co. forced a meltdown, finishing up the largest comeback of Mike Krzyzewski’s career with a 71-69 win.

The hunters, when great, typically chase down the hunted in this sport.

The Warriors, at home, were expected to rally past the Clippers on Wednesday night, which is undoubtedly what many were counting on in what had to be an unfortunately memorable night for those backing the champs’ comeback efforts via in-game betting.

We’ve seen Golden State come back on better teams than these heart-and-hustle Clippers, so even though they were down double-digits for most of the third quarter, it’s no surprise many felt compelled to get in on the Warriors as a pick’em or even getting points as the game progressed deeper into the night. The Warriors pulled within 97-94 with 1:23 left in the third quarter before L.A. scored the final seven points to space the lead out to 10 entering the fourth.

Another uphill climb saw the Warriors catch the Clippers at 117 on a Kevin Durant dunk with 3:29 left. Even those who don’t care for the polarizing superstar had to cheer him then. By the time winning time rolled around in Game 5, only Golden State in-game bettors wanted to see them complete the comeback, but my understanding is that there were a lot of you watching the final minutes with covers over your eyes and an account balance on the brain.

Those who had taken a side pre-game already had the outcome decided. The ‘over’ was coming in. The Clippers weren’t going to lose by 15 points. They weren’t going out like that. The better question ended up being whether they would be going out at all.

A Durant dunk with 2:40 left put the Warriors up 118-117, getting them back the lead for the first time since early second-quarter.

The Clippers’ melt had been completed. What happened next was most unexpected.

Lou Williams outscored Golden State 8-0 over the next two minutes, getting half of them on a four-point play that gave L.A. the lead back for the final time just seconds after falling behind. Durant fouled him. He couldn’t help it. The Warriors turned the ball over twice and struggled to get off quality looks. Ironically, every member of their “Hamptons Five” lineup besides Draymond Green missed a shot or committed an error. Four All-Stars and Andre Iguodala couldn’t manage to score a basket when it mattered most until Stephen Curry hit a long 3-pointer with less than 30 seconds left to trim a deficit that had grown to nine points down in size.

It was too late. There would be no last-gasp miracle. A lot of in-game bets fell victim to an incredible upset in what has been the biggest treat the first round of the NBA playoffs has had to offer. Is it an indictment of Golden State, proof that this group lacks the special formula that delivered consecutive titles?

I’m going to pass on being overly dramatic, though I wouldn’t blame those who dropped a chunk on a monumental letdown from feeling that way.

The Warriors look more vulnerable than they did when the postseason began, having lost DeMarcus Cousins to a quad injury that will likely sideline him for the remainder of the playoffs. You best believe he would’ve been an asset to keep Montrezl Harrell from getting as comfortable as he’s looked in the paint throughout the series. Andrew Bogut and Kevon Looney are getting used to playing the increased minutes they’ll be tasked with over the next few weeks in teaming to replace Cousins, so maybe this time against the Clippers will prove beneficial.

Spoiler alert, the Warriors aren’t going to lose this series. No matter how much of your investment they lost on Wednesday night, they’re still the best bet to yield a return on winning it all. The issue is that like the Clippers, other teams have now seen enough of what they can do that the element of fear is no longer present.

Pat Beverley has gone from overlooked pest to primary antagonist, somehow finishing with 14 rebounds while shooting 5-for-11 from 3-point range when that’s never been a strength. He’s proven he’s willing to do whatever it takes and is testing Golden State’s will. Lou Williams is one of the silkiest scorers we’ve ever seen, gifted beyond belief and in the conversation as one of the top sixth-man in league history. Harrell has raised his level to unprecedented heights in terms of consistency. Rookies Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Landry Shamet and Jerome Robinson haven’t blinked.

Take your hat off to the Clippers for what they’ve done. They’ve dented the Warriors enough that their championship odds have come all the way down from -200 to -150 at Westgate Superbook. They were -350 to win the West when the series began and are now -300. That will be part of the legacy for L.A.’s group of overachievers, at least until we see whether their exploits have gotten the attention of a Durant, Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler enough to want to come play for Steve Ballmer. All that remains to be seen.

NBA expert Chris David didn’t expect this series to reach Game 5 yet alone Game 6 and he certainly doesn’t believe Game 7 will happen. He’s fading the Clippers on Friday night due to their inconsistent offense.

“Los Angeles has been a fun team to watch all season and seeing them explode on Wednesday wasn’t surprising considering the offensive firepower they have. Unfortunately for Doc Rivers, his troops haven’t been able to duplicate the production on a night-to-night basis,” David said. “Including the result in Game 5, the Clippers have scored 129 points or more 10 times this season. In the first nine contests following those hot-shooting nights, Los Angeles has averaged 113.4 PPG and while the drop-off doesn’t seem alarming, it’s translated into a 3-6 record. Delving into those numbers further, the three wins came against non-playoff teams and five of the six losses were against playoff teams and they came by average of 17 PPG. That includes the Game 3 loss at home to the Warriors by 27 points in this series.”

Green is dealing with a wrist injury and missed both of his 3-pointers in Game 5, but he had punished the Clips for playing entirely off him earlier in the series. Curry has had issues getting off but shot for 4-for-5 from beyond the arc on Wednesday, which makes you wonder why he wasn’t more aggressive. Durant scored 45 points as the offense ran through him after he was criticized for being too passive earlier in the series, so it’s clear that the Warriors haven’t found the right balance in this series. Credit Rivers and the Clippers for a little of that.

Golden State has struggled mightily on the defensive end to add to its helping of blame pie for why they had to make a return trip to Staples after going up 3-1 on Sunday. The Clippers have scored 105 points twice and 104 once in their three losses but have averaged 132 points in their victories. The pick-and-roll combination of Williams and Harrell has proven unstoppable in those games, so it’s on Kerr to have a counter that makes life more difficult for that elite bench tandem. The Warriors have averaged 123.6 points per game in the series, so keep that in mind when considering the total (233), especially since Rivers is going small at the onset of games with JaMychal Green having replaced Ivica Zubac in the starting five. L.A. is more perimeter oriented as a result and is employing a faster pace.

Expect Golden State to finally get out of the series and on to their highly anticipated matchup with the Rockets tonight. Even though L.A. is going off at over +400 on the money line, resist that temptation. The question thus becomes whether you have enough faith in the Warriors to lay double-digits. Have you seen enough to believe that these Clippers have too much heart to go quietly?

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Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/26

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/26

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