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**Udog** · 04-24-2019, 08:56 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win next February’s Super Bowl (from Westgate SuperBook)

6-1: Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots

8-1: New Orleans Saints

10-1: Los Angeles Rams

12-1: Indianapolis Colts

14-1: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns

20-1: Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) Never really thought about this much, but Ross Tucker wrote an article in The Athletic this week about how a lot of active pro football players despise watching the NFL Draft, because he might be watching his employer select a player who will then take his job this summer.

Welcome to Case Keenum’s world; when he suits up for the Redskins this fall he’ll be on his fifth team in six years, at the most visible position in all of sports. No pressure there. But there are rumors that Washington will trade for Josh Rosen or draft a QB, which means that in 2020, it would likely be six teams in seven years.

12) Thru Monday, there were 1.34 home runs hit per game in major league games, ahead of 2017’s pace of 1.26 HR’s/game, which is the all-time record.

11) One member of Georgia’s football recruiting office has been fired and another suspended for 30 days without pay. No one is saying why, but it can’t be good.

10) 49ers’ kicker Robbie Gould told the team that he will not negotiate or sign a long-term deal with them— he requested a trade. Gould is 36; he was the Bears’ kicker for 11 years.

9) Seattle Seahawks traded DE Frank Clark to the Chiefs for a 1st-round pick this year and a 2nd-round pick next year. Teams also exchanged 3rd round picks this year.

8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers have no games in Tampa between Sept. 22 and Nov. 10; they’re not happy about it.

7) Angels’ Peter Bourjos had played in 1,454 professional games in 14 seasons before Monday’s game. In the 13th inning, he made his first-ever appearance in the infield, playing 2B, and made a great diving stop going to his left to rob a batter of a hit.

Halos used P Felix Pena as a pinch-runner in that game; last time the Angels used a pitcher as a pinch-runner had been Steve Sparks vs Arizona on June 13, 1999.

6) Arizona poached G Max Hazzard as a grad transfer from Cal-Irvine; Hazzard’s brother was a walk-on at Arizona from 2012-16. Funny thing, Cal-Irvine was better than Arizona last year, when Hazzard scored 12.5 ppg for the Anteaters- he is the grandson of former UCLA coach Walt Hazzard.

Idaho State has two kids transferring out of the program, which is never a good sign; one is a 6-11 center who scored 10 points a game, the other a sub who played 19 minutes/game.

5) North Carolina had a big recruiting day, signing two hoop prospects; Cole Anthony (Greg Anthony’s son) and Anthony Harris, a couple of talented guards.

4) Blue Jays SS prospect Bo Bichette broke his left hand when he was hit by a pitch in Monday night’s game; Bichette plays for the AAA Buffalo Bisons.

3) This will be the first time ever that the Texas Longhorns will go four years in a row without a first round pick in the NFL Draft.

2) NBA said Tuesday that 233 players — 175 players from colleges/other schools and 58 international players — filed as early entry candidates for the 2019 NBA Draft.

Seeing how only 60 players get taken in the draft, going to be some disappointed people.

1) College football rules change starting this fall: If game reaches a 5th OT, teams will begin to run alternating 2-point plays rather than offensive possessions starting at 25-yard line. There were concerns about players being injured/getting exhausted with a couple games going six or seven OT’s in recent years.

**Udog** · 04-24-2019, 08:57 AM

**Udog** · 04-24-2019, 09:00 AM

515La Clippers -516 Golden State
GOLDEN STATE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the current season.

517Utah -518 Houston
HOUSTON is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 24

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LA CLIPPERS (49 - 37) at GOLDEN STATE (60 - 26) - 4/24/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 231-292 ATS (-90.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 138-102 ATS (+25.8 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 70-46 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 88-60 ATS (+22.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 47-38 ATS (+5.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 62-46 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-48 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-45 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-54 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-61 ATS (-20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-43 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 13-3 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (51 - 35) at HOUSTON (56 - 30) - 4/24/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
HOUSTON is 127-95 ATS (+22.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 41-30 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 12-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 14-6 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 24

Golden State led first four games in this series by 13-23-21-8 points at halftime; they scored 121-131-132-113 points, and led by 31 in only series game they’ve lost. Warriors won nine of their last 11 games overall. Golden State won 11 of last 14 games with the Clippers, but LA covered six of last ten. Warriors shot 55% from floor in Game 3; they shot 27-66 on arc in Games 3-4 in LA. Thompson scored 27 in first half Sunday. Clippers lost six of last eight games overall; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games. Golden State turned ball over 43 times in Games 1-2, only 12 times in Game 3, 13 in Game 4.

Houston won last seven home games, covered last six; Harden was 11-39 in last two games. In their last three games, Rockets took 133 3-pointers, 112 2-point shots. Jazz stayed alive with its win Monday; they lost Games 1-2 here by 32-20 points, after they had covered five of last seven regular season road games. Mitchell scored 31 for Utah Monday, which was +17 on boards. Houston won 11 of its last 14 games with the Jazz; under is 8-2-1 in last 11 series games (3-0-1 in this series). Rockets won/covered nine of their last 11 games overall.

NBA

Wednesday, April 24

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Trend Report
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Utah Jazz
Utah is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Utah is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 8 games when playing Houston
Utah is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Houston
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Utah
Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Utah
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah

Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Clippers is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
LA Clippers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of LA Clippers's last 17 games
LA Clippers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of LA Clippers's last 25 games on the road
LA Clippers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Clippers's last 15 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Clippers is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Golden State's last 25 games
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Golden State's last 15 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Golden State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

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**Udog** · 04-24-2019, 10:49 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 24

Utah @ Houston

Game 517-518
April 24, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
122.386
Houston
132.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 8
213
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-8); Under

LA Clippers @ Golden State

Game 515-516
April 24, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
109.425
Golden State
130.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 21
238
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 14
234
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-14); Over

**Udog** · 04-24-2019, 11:00 AM

Wednesday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Western Conference First Round – Game 5

No. 5 Utah at No. 4 Houston (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET) -- Rockets lead 3-1

April 14 – Rockets (-6.5) 122 vs. Jazz 90 (Under 212.5)
April 17 – Rockets (-6.5) 118 vs. Jazz 98 (Over 215.5)
April 20 – Rockets (+2) 104 at Jazz 101 (Under 215.5)
April 22 – Jazz (+2) 107 vs. Rockets 91 (Under 215)

Donovan Mitchell wasn’t allowing the Rockets to sweep the Jazz out of the playoffs in Salt Lake City.

The second-year guard scored 19 of his 31 points in the game-deciding fourth quarter and Utah’s defense held Houston to a playoff-low scoring output in a 107-91 win that allowed them to stave off elimination for at least a few more days, forcing them back on a long flight back to Texas’ largest city.

While it remains to be seen whether the Jazz simply postponed the inevitable, their fourth-quarter dominance featured exactly what they need in order to stunningly win four straight and pull a second consecutive first-round upset. Utah defended extremely well at the rim, altering shots and controlling the boards, winning that battle by a 52-35 count while outscoring Houston 52-22 in the paint. For the Rockets, it marked their first game being held under 100 points since a loss in Milwaukee on March 26. It was the team’s lowest scoring output since Nov. 10 and only the fourth time in 2019 that they failed to reach the century mark.

If he is, this series at least has a chance to be compelling.

Mitchell played closer after a slow start and demonstrated a fabulous will to win that served as a driving force, but the Jazz probably would’ve won Game 4 if he hadn’t exploded. What will ultimately decide whether this first-round series can be extended again is whether their strong defense can travel. Houston averaged 120 points in convincingly winning the first two games of the series, winning by a combined margin of 52 points. Center Rudy Gobert and power forward Derrick Favors must again control the paint and Jae Crowder has to serve as an asset at both ends, which will be far more difficult to manage on the road. Counting the playoffs, the Jazz are now 21-22 outside Salt Lake City. Houston’s 33-10 mark at home is better than all teams except the Bucks, Nuggets, Raptors and Trail Blazers.

The Rockets’ x-factor is the health of center Clint Capela, whose lack of activity was glaring and allowed Utah’s bigs to settle in and impose their will in the manner they did. Capela, who averaged 11.3 points and 12 rebounds over the first three wins, managed just four points and seven boards in Game 4, missing five of his six field goal attempts. He revealed he’s been diagnosed with a pair of viruses (adenovirus and kiebsiella for those medically-inclined) that has really sapped his energy and are guaranteed to keep him from being 100 percent over the next few games. I’m sure there’s no one who wants to get back on another flight to Utah less than Capela would be if he’s feeling ill, but he’s up against a difficult matchup and will need teammates to bail him out given that he’s operating at a diminished capacity. Expect Kenneth Faried to get more minutes if Capela remains as ineffective as he was in Game 4.

NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out that while the Rockets have had a solid run in home series-clinchers, they haven’t been reliable against the number.

“The Rockets have won three of the last four close-out games in the playoffs at home since 2017 with the lone defeat coming to the Warriors in last season’s conference finals. However, Houston owns a 1-3 ATS mark in these games, which includes a non-cover against Utah in last season’s Game 5 of the second round as 11 ½-point favorites in a 112-102 victory,” said Rogers. “Although it’s a small sample size, the Jazz have posted a perfect 2-0 ATS record when facing elimination on the road in the playoffs under Quin Snyder, and this is the biggest number Utah is receiving as an underdog in this series.”

The Rockets finished off a 122-90 Game 1 win with a dominant fourth quarter and led by 28 points entering the final 12 minutes of Game 2, so the Jazz haven’t had many stretches of success at the Toyota Center in this postseason. Each team won on the other’s home court once during the regular season and got blown out there as well, but most of this Utah roster has had limited success in the Rockets’ building and found themselves eliminated there in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals last year (112-102).

The low-side in 17-6-1 over the Rockets’ last 24 contests since the beginning of March and has gone 3-1 in the series. The Rockets must find a way to limit offensive boards after being outscored 17-3 on second-chance points in Game 4. Harden is averaging 28.8 points in the series after leading the NBA with a scoring clip of 36.1 during the regular season and is shooting just 37 percent from the field over the four games, so we’ll see if he can put together a big game to close things out. The Jazz covered in all three games where they were an underdog of 7.5 points or more this season.

Western Conference First Round – Game 5

No. 8 L.A. Clippers at No. 1 Golden State (TNT, 10:40 p.m. ET) -- Warriors lead 3-1

Apr. 13 - Warriors (-13.5) 121 vs. Clippers 104 (Under 233)
Apr. 15 - Clippers (+13.5) 135 at Warriors 131 (Over 234)
Apr. 18 - Warriors (-9.5) 132 at Clippers 105 (Over 234)
Apr. 21 - Warriors (-9.5) 113 at Clippers 105 (Under 236)

It’s been an eventful first-round series for the Warriors, who have unexpectedly lost a game, lost their starting center and on occasion, lost their tempers in attempting to dispose of the pesky eighth-seeded Clippers. While many of the team’s players call Los Angeles home, no Golden State player or coach wants a return trip there for a Game 6. It’s time to start concentrating on the next round, especially with the Rockets on the brink of clinching against the Jazz.

The Warriors have largely dominated the series against L.A. outside of a remarkable Game 2 second-collapse that saw them blow a 31-point lead, evening things up at a game apiece. They’ve since taken control of the series, but Klay Thompson indicated that the team is aggravated that it let anyone walk out of Oracle Arena with a victory, something they’re looking to ensure doesn’t become a common occurrence during this three-peat bid.

For whatever reason, the Warriors didn’t look sharp to open the playoffs, following up a 21-turnover Game 1 by committing 22 in the Game 2 setback as Kevin Durant racked up nine. After fouling out of Game 2 following a Game 1 ejection, he found his game at Staples Center, dominating out-sized guard Patrick Beverley, who has been in a pest role against him all series. DeMarcus Cousins is likely done for the rest of the playoffs, Stephen Curry has struggled with his shot and Klay Thompson has been hit-or-miss, so the team’s most consistent All-Star thus far has actually been Draymond Green.

It would be silly to write that the Warriors need to acquire confidence from a close-out game in this series given all that they’ve accomplished, but it would be nice to see multiple guys find a groove in the same game, especially if you’re up for laying the points here. As a favorite of 13.5 points or more this calendar year, Golden State is 8-3 SU but just 6-5 against the number. Each of their losses in that situation has occurred since March 10, including the Game 2 loss to the Clippers.

Golden State opened the postseason as a 2-to-7 favorite (-350) at Westgate to win the West and 1-to-2 (-200) to win the NBA title and have had their odds adjusted to 1-to-3 to win the West (-300) and 5-to-8 (-160) to win it all, so we’re reaching the point where you’re unlikely to find better odds on the defending two-time champs unless they fall behind early in any of their upcoming series. They were made a heavy favorite (-360) in a potential series with the Rockets by Westgate, who have Houston at +280.

Like many other pundits, Chris David of VegasInsider.com expects Golden State to advance but laying two touchdowns in Game 5 looks like a toss-up based what we’ve seen from this season’s Warriors squad.

He explained, “Including the first two games of this series, Golden State has gone 21-4 at home this season as a double-digit home favorite. For our purposes, Steve Kerr’s team has gone 12-13 ATS while the ‘under’ has produced a 15-10 record. Since the Warriors started making noise in the playoffs in 2015, the team has been favored by 10-plus points 22 times in the postseason. Golden State has only lost two of those games and that includes the recent Game 2 stunner to the Clippers. While their regular season ATS numbers were basically a stalemate, Golden State is just 8-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs.”

“In last year’s playoffs, the Warriors won their close-out games by an average of 12.3 PPG and that number was inflated a bit by their 23-point win over the Cavaliers in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. They only averaged 105.3 PPG and that lack of production helped the ‘under’ go 4-0. While that was the trend last season, two years prior was a much different story and their first run with Kevin Durant was explosive in 2017. In those four close-out games, the Warriors averaged 126.7 PPG and won by an average of 18.5 PPG.”

Golden State has lost just three of the last 20 games it has played against the Clippers at Oracle since 2012 and is 28-12 overall against them in that span, which includes a 17-3 run since ’15.

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Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/24

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/24

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