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**Udog** · 04-21-2019, 08:47 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

More spreads on NFL games this season:

— Week 2: Saints @ Rams (-3)

— Week 3: Rams (-2) @ Browns

— Week 8: Browns @ Patriots (-6.5)

— Week 12: Cowboys @ Patriots (-5.5)

— Week 14: Cowboys @ Bears (-2.5)

— Week 15: Colts @ Saints (-3.5)

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

13) Twins-Orioles broadcast Saturday was great; Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven were the analysts and it was educational. Play-by-play guy described the action on the field then got out of the way and let the two experts talk. Good stuff.

Kaat was saying how much harder batters work now before the game, and he referenced Aaron Judge going on the IL Saturday with an oblique strain. It is possible to overtrain.

12) Auburn’s Chuma Okeke tore his ACL during the NCAA tournament, but he is entering the NBA Draft anyway, not really sure why. You’d think he’d stay in school, use the school’s facilities to strenghten/rehab his knee, then go into the ’20 draft. We’ll see how this works out for him.

11) Advice from Bucky Brooks, former NFL player and scout:

“If you’re a HS football player who isn’t playing baseball in the Spring, you SHOULD run track for your school. Speed is such an important part of being a top-notch football player. Learning how to run and compete on the track carries over onto the field.. Dare to be great..”

10) Interesting trivia on this year’s NFL schedule:
— NFL’s Senior VP of broadcasting Howard Katz is one of the people who makes the NFL schedule every year.
— Philadelphia Eagles are only NFL team that plays three straight weeks on road this year.
— Katz and Eagles’ coach Doug Pedersen are next-door neighbors.

Part of the reason the Eagles are on road for three straight weeks in October is that the Phillies are expected to be World Series contenders, and the NFL didn’t want any conflicts between Eagle/Phillies games, seeing how they share parking areas.

9) Miami Marlins fired hitting coach Mike Pagliarulo after 20 games; it ain’t his fault Miami has a bad team. Marlins fired hitting coach Frank Menechino after last season; what they need to do is find an owner who is willing to spend money on ballplayers.

Two years ago, Miami’s outfield was Yelich-Ozuna-Stanton, then the team was sold and the new geniuses who are in charge traded the three of them for three piles of crap. No bueno.

8) Keldon Johnson scored 13.5 ppg this year as a freshman at Kentucky; he is projected by one draft guru to be picked 17th in June’s NBA Draft.

Johnson was seen in Hollywood this week driving a $300,000 McLaren 720S Spider; until watching a Showtime special a few weeks ago, I had no idea that there were cars that cost so much money. Wish the young man well in his NBA career, but someone might want to teach him money management skills before it is too late.

Last year’s NBA rookie salary scale paid the #17 pick a total of $6,358,500 for his first three years in the league. Taxes eat half of that, agent takes another 3%, so he’s down to $2,988,495 before he starts.

Donte DiVincenzo was the #17 pick LY; he played 15.2 mpg, scored 4.9 ppg, so he’s no lock for a second contract in the league when the time comes. The second contract is the key; thats where guys establish themselves in the NBA. Then they can buy the $300,000 car.

7) Baseball injuries:
— New York put Aaron Judge (oblique) on IL.
— Red Sox put P Nathan Eovaldi (elbow) on IL.
— Pirates put 2B Erik Gonzalez (clavicle), CF Starling Marte (abdomen) on IL.
— Phillies put SS Jean Segura (hamstring), P Victor Arano (elbow) on IL.

6) Former Georgia/Miami football coach Mark Richt will be an analyst on the new ACC Network starting this fall.

5) There is a high school football stadium in Jacksonville, TX called the Tomato Bowl.

4) On April 12, CG Technology took these two futures bets:
— Jaguars for $4,000 at 45-1, to win $180,000
— Titans for $2,000 at 85-1, to win $170,000

Long time to let the books hold your money; will odds change that much between now and before the preseason games start this summer?

3) Giants have apparently talked about trading for Arizona QB Josh Rosen, but don’t want to give up either one of their first round picks (6th, 17th picks) in this draft.

Rosen was the 2nd player taken in last year’s draft, so if you won’t give up a first round pick for him now, then you really don’t want him.

2) From Henry Schulman: Since 1912, the longest a team has gone to start a season without scoring a first-inning run is 28 games. Giants are at 22 games and counting thru Saturday.

1) 76ers 112 (-3.5), Nets 108— Philly hit two foul shots with 0:06 left to cover the spread; if you had Brooklyn +3.5, this was a bad beat. Embiid had 31 points, 16 rebounds for Philly.

**Udog** · 04-21-2019, 08:49 AM

**Udog** · 04-21-2019, 09:11 AM

Sunday's Early Tips
Kevin Rogers

Game 4 - Celtics (-2 ½, 204) at Pacers – 1:00 PM EST – ABC

Boston leads series, 3-0

The Pacers entered the playoffs without their top scorer in Victor Oladipo and faced a team that was one victory away from the NBA Finals last season. However, Indiana led Boston at halftime in the series opener, held a double-digit advantage heading into the fourth quarter in Game 2, and erased an early 15-point deficit to own a halftime lead in Game 3 at home.

Unfortunately, the Pacers have nothing to show for those second half leads as Indiana sits in a 3-0 hole and needs to save its season with a victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Sunday. Rewinding back to Friday’s Game 3, the Celtics jumped out to a seemingly commanding 40-25 first quarter cushion before the Pacers clawed back for a 61-59 halftime edge. Indiana put together its second horrible third quarter in three games by getting outscored, 21-12 as the Celtics held off the Pacers, 104-96 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs.

Brad Stevens’ team put together a horrible 1-7 mark away from TD Garden in the 2018 postseason, but the Celtics knocked down 15 three-pointers, including four treys from Jaylen Brown, who led Boston with 23 points. Kyrie Irving scored 19 points, highlighted by several big baskets late to give the Celtics breathing room and their sixth consecutive win over the Pacers since losing at Indiana by one in November.

Dating back to 1993, the Pacers have been swept only once in the playoffs, which came two seasons ago against Cleveland in the opening round. Since the start of the 2017 postseason, road teams seeking a sweep in Game 4 own a solid 6-3 SU/ATS record, although Boston suffered one of those losses at Philadelphia in last season’s second round.

NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on this pivotal Game 4 for the Pacers, “Indiana has had an opportunity to win every game in this series if it had just made plays in the fourth quarter but has been unable to make big shots when it has had to have them most. We’ll see if the Pacers are able to respond with the pressure essentially off of them, but if you believe they’ll play with pride to avoid being swept at home, the high-side may be the way to go.”

“The Pacers have only scored 105 points after halftime through the first three games, so you can expect Nate McMillan to utilize different personnel to try and find a better flow, likely employing more of Tyreke Evans and potentially utilizing guys like Doug McDermott and Kyle O’Quinn more. We’ve yet to see an ‘over’ in this series, but I expect to see a game eclipse 200 points for the first time and consider that more likely than the Pacers forcing a return trip to Boston,” Mejia notes.

Game 4 – Warriors (-8 ½, 235 ½) at Clippers – 3:35 PM EST – ABC

Golden State leads series, 2-1

After the Clippers shocked the Warriors in Game 2 at Oracle Arena by erasing an insurmountable 31-point deficit, Golden State bounced back with a blowout in Los Angeles in Game 3. The two-time defending champions jumped out to a 17-point lead after one quarter as the Warriors cruised to a 132-105 victory to easily cash as 9 ½-point favorites and take back the series lead.

Kevin Durant torched the Clippers for 27 first half points as he finished with 38 points, while Stephen Curry shot an efficient 7-of-11 from the floor for 21 points. Golden State drilled 15 three-pointers, while limiting Los Angeles to 7-of-32 shooting from downtown. Only one Clippers’ starter finished in double-figures as Ivica Zubac posted 18 points and 15 rebounds, while three players off the L.A. bench put up at least 15 points in the loss.

The Clippers fell to 1-6 ATS the last seven games as the only cover came in the Game 2 miracle comeback in Oakland. Each of the past three losses at Staples Center as an underdog have come by 21, 32, and 27 points, which certainly doesn’t bode well to make this a competitive series.

Chris David believes this series will be over in two games but this scheduling spot could bring out the best in the Clippers. He explained, “The hierarchy at the Staples Center has been clear-cut since it’s opened with the Lakers always receiving preferential treatment, then the NHL Kings and lastly the Clippers and I’m sure Steve Ballmer’s team has been bumped for ‘Disney on Ice’ or a ‘Scientology’ seminar over the years as well. With all that being said, Los Angeles is forced into playing many afternoon games at the venue and while the late-arriving crowds create empty seats at times, Doc Rivers' club has flourished in these spots this season.”

“The Clippers have played eight games at the Staples Center which started at 12:30 p.m. PT this season and they went 7-1 both straight up and against the spread. Five of the wins came by double digits and four matchups were against playoff teams. The offense averaged 120.5 PPG, which helped the ‘over’ go 5-2-1 and the lone loss came to Detroit, who received a monster effort from Blake Griffin as he stuck it to his former team. Golden State is clearly the more talented team and I expect them to be up 3-1 after Sunday’s result. However, it’s going to need a big effort and my top lean would be to the Clippers Team Total Over (113 ½) and I would also buy Los Angeles in the first quarter (+3) and first half (+5) in the day matinee as well.”

**BettorsChat** · 04-21-2019, 09:18 AM

567 GOLDEN STATE -568 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

569 TORONTO -570 ORLANDO
ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents in the current season.

571 PORTLAND -572 OKLAHOMA CITY
PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

**Udog** · 04-21-2019, 09:19 AM

567Golden State -568 La Clippers
LA CLIPPERS are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

569Toronto -570 Orlando
ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents in the current season.

571Portland -572 Oklahoma City
PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, April 21

Boston @ Indiana

Game 565-566
April 21, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
122.291
Indiana
115.685
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 6 1/2
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 2 1/2
204
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-2 1/2); Over

Golden State @ LA Clippers

Game 567-568
April 21, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
127.678
LA Clippers
112.276
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 15 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8 1/2
235 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8 1/2); Under

Toronto @ Orlando

Game 569-570
April 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
126.488
Orlando
122.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 4
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 5 1/2
207
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(+5 1/2); Under

Portland @ Oklahoma City

Game 571-572
April 21, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
124.253
Oklahoma City
122.105
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 2
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 6
223 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+6); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, April 21

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BOSTON (52 - 33) at INDIANA (48 - 37) - 4/21/2019, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 101-79 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 77-58 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 53-39 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 71-54 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (59 - 26) at LA CLIPPERS (49 - 36) - 4/21/2019, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-47 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-44 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-42 ATS (-17.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-38 ATS (+4.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 61-46 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 138-101 ATS (+26.9 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 70-45 ATS (+20.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 88-59 ATS (+23.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 176-221 ATS (-67.1 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 235-288 ATS (-81.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 230-292 ATS (-91.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (60 - 25) at ORLANDO (43 - 42) - 4/21/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 207-263 ATS (-82.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
ORLANDO is 46-36 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 38-28 ATS (+7.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 38-27 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 8-6 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 9-5 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (55 - 30) at OKLAHOMA CITY (50 - 35) - 4/21/2019, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 47-38 ATS (+5.2 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
PORTLAND is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 57-76 ATS (-26.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) on Sunday games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-6 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 9-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, April 21

Celtics are up 3-0 in series; they’ve been outscored by 7 points in first half of games, but in 2nd half, they outscored Indiana by 33 points. Boston won its last six games overall vs Indiana. Pacers scored 29-41-35 points in 2nd half, as absence of Oladipo becomes glaring. Pacers lost 11 of last 16 games overall, four of last five at home. Celtics won nine of their last 11 games overall; they won/covered five of last six road games. Five of their last seven games stayed under. All three games in this series stayed under total.

Golden State led first three games in this series by 13-23-21 points at halftime; they scored 121-131-132 points, and led by 31 in only series game they’ve lost. Warriors won eight of their last ten games overall. Golden State won ten of last 13 games with the Clippers, but LA covered five of last nine. Warriors shot 55% from floor in Game 3; Durant scored 38 points in 30:00. Clippers lost five of last seven games overall; over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games. LA covered only three of its last ten games at Staples. Golden State turned ball over 43 times in Games 1-2, only 12 times in Game 3.

Orlando took 44 3-pointers, 36 2-point shots in 98-93 home loss in Game 3; Magic shot 37/36% in last two games; they shot 40% (14-29 on arc) in their one win. Orlando won 12 of its last 16 games, eight of last nine at home. Toronto won nine of its last 11 games overall; they covered five of last seven road games. Toronto won eight of its last 11 games with the Magic; eight of last ten series games stayed under. Lowry was +8 in Game 3, is +49 in series. All three games in this series stayed under the total.

Oklahoma City made 15-29 on arc in Game 3, after going 10-61 on arc in losing Games 1-2 in Portland; Westbrook was 11-22 in Game 3, 4-6 on arc. Thunder also was 31-39 on foul line Friday, outscored Trailblazers by 13 points there. OKC won/covered their last four home games. Nine of last 13 OKC games stayed under. Blazers won 17 of their last 21 games overall; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Blazers are 7-5 in last 12 series games; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six visits to Oklahoma. Six of last nine series games stayed under.

NBA

Sunday, April 21

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Trend Report
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Boston Celtics
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Indiana
Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 16 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games at home
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
Indiana is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indiana's last 16 games when playing at home against Boston

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Golden State's last 24 games
Golden State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games on the road
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Golden State's last 14 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Golden State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Clippers is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
LA Clippers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 12 games
LA Clippers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Clippers's last 9 games at home
LA Clippers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Clippers's last 14 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Toronto is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando Magic
Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Orlando is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 10 games
Orlando is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Orlando is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Portland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Portland's last 25 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Portland
Oklahoma City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Oklahoma City's last 25 games when playing at home against Portland

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**Udog** · 04-21-2019, 09:49 AM

Sunday's Late Tips
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 4

No. 2 Toronto at No. 7 Orlando (TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET) -- Raptors lead 2-1

April 13 - Magic (+9.5) 104 at Raptors 101 (Under 212.5)
April 16 – Raptors (-11) 111 vs. Magic 82 (Under 212.5)
April 19 – Raptors (-5.5) 98 at Magic 93 (Under 211)

The Magic lost its first home playoff game since 2012 but were able to generate some confidence through a late run that helped them flirt with an epic comeback. Kyle Lowry saved the Raptors by getting to a loose ball faster than a pair of Orlando players, helping produce a pair of free-throws that put the game away and set the table for Sunday night’s fourth installment.

Toronto forwards Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam have each had excellent showings in the series, while Magic All-Star center Nikola Vucevic has been bottled up and forwards Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac have put both their brilliant potential and inconsistency on display.

Orlando was able to steal the series opener as D.J. Augustin put together one of the best games of his career as Lowry struggled mightily, finishing scoreless in 34 minutes after missing all seven of his shots. Augustin has shot 4-for-13 since his 25-point Game 1 outburst, averaging just eight points over the last two contests. All five starters and top reserves Terrence Ross and Michael Carter-Williams scored in double-figures in the opener, but only Gordon and Ross have been able to score in double-figures in every game of the series. The Raptors have demonstrated an ability to clamp down more than the Magic have been able to despite Orlando being the nation’s top defensive team since the All-Star break.

Leonard comes off his worst game in the series, shooting 5-for-19 after shooting 60 percent (25-for-40) in the first two games in Toronto. He’s just as likely to play decoy so that Siakam and Marc Gasol can do damage inside, especially since Isaac’s length has been a major factor in the paint and getting into passing lanes.

The Magic finally got Nikola Vucevic to settle in and deliver his usual production in Game 3, which is something head coach Steve Clifford was thrilled to see considering there was little he could say to help the All-Star settle down and be sharper in dealing with the various coverage looks and double-teams he’s seen. Gasol and Serge Ibaka each got four fouls whistled against them throughout the course of Game 3, so their ability to avoid early trouble will be a key here. Another point of contention will be the play of Ross off the Magic’s bench since he’s the player most capable of delivering a scoring flurry. After shooting 2-for-11 in the win, he’s averaged 19.5 points over the last two contests, shooting 8-for-20 (40 percent) from 3-point range. Keeping him from getting going will be important for the Raptors to pull off another road win.

After watching the ‘under’ go 3-0 in the first three games of this series, oddsmakers sent out a total of 207 for Game 4 and Chris David believes the number could be lower but the better investment on Sunday night is on a Team Total.

He explained, “the Raptors and Magic have proven themselves as very solid defensive teams and their size and athleticism have taken away plenty of easy baskets in this series. Fortunately for Toronto, it has more offensive firepower and that’s been the difference. Rather than mess around with the game total, I’m going to ride a solid playoff trend on Toronto. Since the NBA’s club from Canada has returned to the postseason in 2014, they’ve played 25 road games and they’ve been held to less than 100 in 19 of them. When you add in new names like Leonard and Gasol who come from teams (Spurs, Grizzlies) that grinded out wins in the playoffs with defense, I certainly believe that their footprints have carried over to this squad. I’m going to lean Toronto’s Team Total (106) Under and stick with the probabilities.”

Western Conference First Round – Game 4

No. 3 Portland at No. 6 Oklahoma City (TNT, 9:35 p.m. ET) -- Blazers lead 2-1

April 14 – Blazers (+3) 104 vs. Thunder 99 (Under 224.5)
April 16 – Blazers (-1) 114 vs. Thunder 94 (Under 224.5)
April 19 – Thunder (-7.5) 120 vs. Blazers 108 (Over 221.5)

This series has been a wild ride so far.

Center Enes Kanter dominated Game 1 and ended up being the reason the Trail Blazers were able to survive blowing a massive first-half lead. Guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum combined for 62 points in a Game 2 blowout, but the overwhelming takeaway from the first two games of this series was that the Thunder’s season-long Achilles’ heel was ultimately going to spell their downfall. Oklahoma City shot 10-for-61 from 3-point range in the first two games. The main issue that had kept them from a top-four finish in the Western Conference had kept them from gaining a split in Portland.

The buzzards were circling on Friday, having descended on Oklahoma’s capital city to pick at the carcass of Russell Westbrook if the Thunder would’ve fallen behind 3-0 to place themselves one loss from a third straight first-round exit.

The predatory bird posse is still in town since Portland can still head home with a vice grip on the series, but the Thunder have to be encouraged after shooting 15-for-29 from 3-point range in holding serve in Game 3. Although Paul George continued to struggle in shooting 2-for-7 from beyond the arc, teammates Westbrook, Jerami Grant, Terrance Ferguson and Dennis Schroder combined to knock down 13 of 18 (72.2 percent). That same foursome shot 3-for-33 over the course of the first two games.

Although Westbrook’s matchup with Lillard is getting the most attention, this series is going to boil down to whether the Thunder can knock down enough shots to impose their will. This definitely has the potential to be one of those series where the home team wins every matchup, but the Thunder opened the series as the betting favorite despite being the higher seed and actually closed as road chalk in Game 1, not to mention laying multiple possessions at home.

Portland has had wild fluctuations in its offensive efficiency, getting stifled in two of three second-quarters as OKC has been able to lock in defensively. The Trail Blazers own a 39-point first quarter in Game 1 and scored 37 in the third in Game 2 and 43 in Game 3, so they’ve been able to find a rhythm and knock the Thunder off their heels enough to invest in taking the points given what we’ve seen thus far. The Blazers offense finished only behind the Warriors, Rockets and Bucks during the regular season in efficiency and is facing a statistical peer on the boards in OKC, but they have to be encouraged that they’ve been able to maintain without center Jusuf Nurkic, who they lost late in the season. It now remains to be seen if they have the stamina to continue pulling the rope.

The emotional fire should certainly be present since these teams genuinely dislike one another outside of Kanter and Steven Adams, who were good buddies as teammates on the Thunder. Lillard and Westbrook won’t back down from one another, while George ruffled Portland’s feathers by dunking unnecessarily at the end of Game 4. The points didn’t even end up counting, but the Trail Blazers took it as a sign of disrespect.

Lillard has averaged 30.3 points in the series, while McCollum has also been incredibly impressive and shot 5-for-8 from 3-point range in quickly adapting to the sight lines at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Seth Curry, Rodney Hood and Evan Turner combined for just six points on 1-for-6 shooting and had nowhere near the impact they enjoyed in Portland, so getting significant improvements from the bench is yet another way the Blazers can steal this game.

George and Westbrook can no longer be counted on to consistently hit from the perimeter, but we’ll see if they’re able to get to the line and hold serve to ensure a return trip to Oklahoma City.

David touched on the lack of playoff success that Portland has had with Lillard running the show in his piece on Friday and he’s not sure if the Trail Blazers can flip the switch but another competitive game is likely.

“Including Friday’s Game 3 loss, Portland is now 1-17 SU and 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 road playoff games and the lone victory has an asterisk next to it because the Clippers were hobbled in the 2016 postseason. The game on Friday was closer than the final margin and we’ve seen the Blazers play well away from home, especially since the All-Star break,” David said. “During this span, the team closed 11-5 on the road and that included a respectable 4-4 mark versus playoff teams. However, a 2-5 record in its last seven games as a road underdog doesn’t give me much confidence. Portland has gone 20-9 off a loss this season and with the line dropping for Game 4, you can see what the oddsmakers are thinking. I’m expecting OKC to even-up the series on Sunday but it won’t be easy and this contest will be decided by single-digits.”

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