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**Udog** · 04-20-2019, 08:59 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Some early point spreads for NFL games this fall:

— Week 2: Browns (-2.5) @ Jets

— Week 4: Cowboys @ Saints (-.5.5)

— Week 7: Patriots (-6) @ Jets

— Week 8: Packers @ Chiefs (-6)

— Week 14: Chiefs @ Patriots (-2.5)

— Week 15: Colts @ Saints (-3.5)

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

13) Oakland Raiders sent their scouts home for the weekend; they’re not expected to be back before the draft next weekend. Supposedly, Raiders’ hierarchy (Gruden) doesn’t trust all his people, but doesn’t know exactly who he doesn’t trust. ��

Apparently this isn’t all that unusual; Gil Brandt told a story this week from 1987, where they told one scout about this LB they want to draft (they didn’t really want to). Two days later, a writer in Dallas posts this article about how the Cowboys are going to take the LB, which outed the scout as a leaker. He then became an ex-scout.

12) Other former front office guys have been saying on Twitter this week that the last 8-10 years, teams have been limiting access to a team’s draft board to only the top 3-4 football people.

11) Blue Jays are calling up top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr; he is expected to make his big league debut on Tuesday against the Giants.

10) College basketball is getting to the point where any returning player who scored double figures for a low-to-mid major is getting poached by bigger schools. Norfolk State’s leading scorer entered the transfer portal the week; it makes handicapping during the season that much harder. Will the new player fit in? How much does his departure hurt his former team?

Can’t be much fun for guys who coach in low/mid-majors.

9) Was reading something this week about how they’re using major league baseballs at the AAA level for the first time this year, and home runs have spiked early in the season. Homers in the International League are up 39%; in the Pacific Coast League, 32%.

Same thing hasn’t happened in AA or A ball, so it makes you wonder……

8) San Antonio Spurs’ Derrick White played three years of D-II ball at Colorado–Colorado Springs, transferred and played his senior year for the Colorado Buffaloes; he had zero D-I scholarship offers out of high school. None.

This year, he played 25.8 mpg for the Spurs, scored 9.9 ppg. He scored 36 points in the Spurs’ Game 3 win over Denver Thursday. Good for him.

7) Baseball transactions:
— Red Sox put IF Eduardo Núñez (back) on IL.
— Padres put OF Manuel Margot on the paternity list, called up Jose Pirela.
— Mets put Jacob deGrom (elbow) on the IL.

6) NCAA relaxed some transfer rules for freshmen: Incoming freshmen who enroll in summer school and receive financial aid can transfer and play immediately without a waiver if their coach leaves prior to the first day of fall classes.

This involves situations where a coach gets fired late in the spring or in summer, like couple years ago when Ohio State fired Thad Matta. It does not include football players who are early enrollees.

5) Not sure what the wisdom of the four outfielder shift is; seems like having four infielders would be a better idea. Lot of the guys you use the four OF shift with, if they hit it in the air to the outfield, it is going over the fence anyway.

4) Former UNLV coach Marvin Menzies signed on to be an assistant coach for Dan Majerle at Grand Canyon University in the WAC.

3) Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom will have an MRI on his elbow Monday, which is bad news for the Mets and worse news for my fantasy team.

I mentioned a few days ago how deGrom had trouble putting hitters away in his last two starts, and this is probably a big reason why.

2) Draft trivia; Kyler Murray’s father Kevin was the 11th player taken in the 1982 baseball draft, one spot after Bill Ripken (Cal’s brother).

1) Nick Saban will have hip replacement surgery on Monday; can’t imagine he’d be much fun to have as a patient in the hospital. Good luck to all the nurses……..

**Udog** · 04-20-2019, 09:02 AM

**Udog** · 04-20-2019, 09:04 AM

Saturday's Early Tips
Chris David

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 4 (76ers lead 2-1)

Philadelphia at Brooklyn (TNT, 3:05 p.m. ET)

The 76ers were humbled 111-102 in Game 1 to the Nets as 7 ½-point home favorites last Saturday and the frustration carried over to Game 2 this past Monday as Brooklyn was in striking distance again, trailing 65-64 after the first two quarters.

Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown reportedly gave a very motivated speech at halftime and whatever he said worked. The 76ers outscored the Nets 80-59 in the second-half and cruised to a 145-123 win in Game 2 to even the series. That spirited talk by Brown apparently carried over in Game 3 on Thursday as Philadelphia built a 32-24 lead over Brooklyn after the first quarter before leading 65-59 at halftime.

The club topped their first-half total with 66 points and ended with a 131-115 win over the Nets in Game 3 as 1 ½-point favorites. Philadelphia shot 48 percent from the field and finished 11-of-27 (41%) from 3-point land and it also filled it up from the free-throw line with a blistering 30-of-35 mark (86%).

They did all the damage without All-Star Joel Embiid, who rested his sore knee. His status was downgraded from ‘questionable’ to ‘doubtful’ for Game 4 on Friday evening. Including Thursday’s result, the team is now 9-10 this season without the big man in the lineup.

With or without Embiid, it's become apparent that Nets only chance of winning a game yet alone the series comes down to how poorly Philadelphia shoots from the field. Outside of All-Star D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn doesn’t have the depth or defense to compete with the Sixers roster of stars.

Oddsmakers had Philadelphia as a two-point favorite but the number dropped to -1 ½ after the Embiid alert was sent out. The total was slightly moved from 233 to 232.

Despite dominating Game 3, Kevin Rogers is still hesitant to lay the points with Philadelphia based on trends that we’ve seen from the club this season. However, he noted that Brooklyn’s recent tendencies haven’t been great either.

He explained, “The 76ers improved to 3-11 ATS this season as a favorite of less than 3 ½ points with Thursday’s blowout of the Nets. Obviously the better team now leads the series, 2-1, but Philadelphia owns a 3-8 ATS mark as a road favorite off a win this season, which includes the Game 3 victory. Since early February, the Nets have not been a reliable home underdog at 1-4 SU/ATS, with all four losses coming by double-digits.”

For what it’s worth, the Nets did trip up the 76ers in the early afternoon matchup last Saturday. Will history repeat itself at the Barclays Center? I delved into results for both clubs in day games (5:30 p.m. ET or earlier) and Brooklyn has gone 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS, which includes its Game 1 win in this series. Philadelphia hasn’t been shabby either, going 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS.

Even though the ‘under’ started out strong in the NBA Playoffs last weekend, we’re starting to see the offensive units come together. The ‘over’ has cashed easily in the last two games in this series and the high side is now 5-1 in the last six meetings between the pair. Without Embiid, the 76ers defense is vulnerable in the paint and the offense doesn’t suffer as much because his absence puts more shooters on the floor. I expect another back and forth contest and my lean would be to Brooklyn’s Team Total Over (115 ½).

Bettors still believing in Brooklyn to rally and win the series can receive 11/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $550) while the 76ers (-750) remain heavy favorites to advance.

Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday at the Wells Fargo Center from Philadelphia.

Western Conference First Round – Game 4 (Spurs lead 2-1)

Denver at San Antonio (TNT, 5:35 p.m. ET)

The only underdog to show up so far in this year’s playoffs has been San Antonio, who was listed at 9/4 odds (Bet $100 to win $225) to defeat Denver in this best-of-seven series. The short price on the Spurs certainly said a lot considering this was a 2-7 matchup but after watching three games, the oddsmakers lack of respect for the Nuggets has been provden.

As of Friday, San Antonio is now listed as high as a minus-185 favorite (Bet $100 to win $54) to advance while Denver is 8/5 (Bet $100 to win $60) to rebound. NBA expert Tony Mejia provides his thoughts on the series, which could easily be a 3-0 lead for the Spurs.

He said, “The Nuggets have largely been dominated for the better part of three games in this series, so head coach Mike Malone will have to find a way to change things up. The Spurs have seen Derrick White factor heavily in both wins and also have DeMar DeRozan plugged in after a slow start. Nikola Jokic had a game where he looked most like his usual self and Denver still couldn’t get a handle on a solid rhythm.”

Including the 118-108 loss in Game 3 at San Antonio on Thursday, Denver has gone 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games. All of those contests came against playoff teams and the defense has been lit up for 115.4 points per game in that span. During the season, the Nuggets were ranked sixth in scoring defense with 106.8 PPG surrendered.

Knowing the club has been troubled on that side of the court, Denver needs to find more offensive firepower and Mejia has singled out a couple Nuggets to step up on Saturday.

“Outside of that Game 2 fourth quarter where Jamal Murray went nuts and San Antonio’s offense looked unsettled and sloppy, Denver has been outclassed and will need to play its most complete game of the series to get back home even by snapping a 14-game losing streak at AT&T Center. That will require big games from Paul Millsap and Murray, x-factors who have come up empty too often thus far. He dominated down the stretch for a perfectly-timed flurry on Tuesday but has otherwise struggled. Take away his 8-for-9 fourth-quarter showing and he’s shooting 27 percent (10-for-37) for the series, which simply isn’t going to cut it with White shooting nearly 70 percent for the series and coming off a 36-point night. To bounce back, Murray will have to overcome the fact that he’s been decidedly more consistent at home than on the road, where he shot just 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from 3-point range, significantly below his averages,” Mejia said.

Even if Denver receives those contributions, are you willing to bet against one of the hottest home teams in the NBA. Mejia has been strong on San Antonio and he believes another win is very probable. “Denver is a sub-.500 team on the road, while San Antonio has won more home games than every other team besides the Bucks, Nuggets and Trail Blazers, who it would match by avoiding an upset here. I picked the Spurs in the series outright and expect them to be up 3-1 heading back to Colorado,” he added.

San Antonio opened as a 3 ½-point home favorite and the overnight line has held steady but the total was bet down and that’s been the theme in the first three games of this series. Even though the ‘over’ has cashed in the last two games, the number dropped from 211 to 208 for Saturday’s matchup.

Due to their aforementioned defensive lapses, Denver has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its last five away games. During its current 14-game home winning streak over the Nuggets, San Antonio is averaging 112.6 PPG but the total results are a stalemate (7-7) during this span.

The pair will meet in Game 5 from the Pepsi Center in Denver on Tuesday.

**Udog** · 04-20-2019, 09:09 AM

557Philadelphia -558 Brooklyn
PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) after a division game in the current season.

559Denver -560 San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days in the current season.

561Milwaukee -562 Detroit
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

563Houston -564 Utah
UTAH is 79-53 ATS (20.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 20

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PHILADELPHIA (53 - 32) at BROOKLYN (43 - 42) - 4/20/2019, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BROOKLYN is 92-74 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 142-116 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 77-56 ATS (+15.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 7-7 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 10-5 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (55 - 30) at SAN ANTONIO (50 - 35) - 4/20/2019, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1092-957 ATS (+39.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 861-735 ATS (+52.5 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 224-169 ATS (+38.1 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 197-145 ATS (+37.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (62 - 22) at DETROIT (41 - 43) - 4/20/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 158-201 ATS (-63.1 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
DETROIT is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DETROIT is 119-166 ATS (-63.6 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 7-5 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 11-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (55 - 29) at UTAH (50 - 34) - 4/20/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 11-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 13-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 20

76ers won Game 3 by 16 without Embiid (knee); they made 11-27 on the arc, after going 12-48 in first two games. Philly scored 80-66 points in 2nd half of last two games. Seven of 76ers’ last nine games went over. Both teams took 35 foul shots in Game 3, which was 65-59 at the half. Sixers are 4-5 in last nine games overall, 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Brooklyn’s bench was +74 in Game 1, -7 in both Game 2/3; Nets are 3-6 vs spread in last nine home games. Brooklyn was 8-39 on arc Thursday after going 26-62 in Games 1-2. Sixers won six of their last nine games with Brooklyn; four of last five series games went over.

Spurs outscored Denver 23-9 on foul line in 119-109 Game win Thursday; White scored 36 for San Antonio- they were +30 with him on court, -20 in 15:00 he was off floor. Home team has now won 12 of last 13 series games. Denver lost its last five visits (2-3 vs spread) to the Alamo. Nuggets are 7-8 in their last 15 games overall, are 1-6 vs spread in last seven road games; they were 15-29 on arc in Game 3, still lost by 10. Five of last seven series games stayed under the total. Spurs’ starters were +97, subs -47 in Game 3- SA bench is -81 in last two games.

Bucks won first two games of this series by 35-21 points; Detroit actually led Game 2 by point at the half, then got outscored 35-17 in 3rd quarter. Bucks won ten of last 12 games with Detroit; under is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Milwaukee won nine of last 12 games; seven of their last nine games went over; Bucks covered four of last six road games. Detroit lost six of its last eight games overall; they’re 9-2 vs spread in last 11 home games. Five of Pistons’ last seven games stayed under total. Seven of last nine Milwaukee games went over. Teams split last four series games played here (Pistons 2-1-1 vs spread).

Rockets won first two series games by 32-20 points, leading by 15-26 at the half while scoring 59-70 points. Houston is 32-83 on arc in series, Jazz is 15-65. Rockets won/covered eight of their last nine games overall; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road games. Houston won nine of its last 12 games with the Jazz; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Utah games. Jazz won its last eight home games; their last loss in SLC was March 11 to OKC. Rockets won/covered three of last four visits to Utah, winning last visit here by 28.

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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Trend Report
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Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Brooklyn is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Denver Nuggets
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 15 games on the road
Denver is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of San Antonio's last 24 games
San Antonio is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games
Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Milwaukee is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Milwaukee is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Detroit is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Detroit is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Houston Rockets
Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 22 games
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games on the road
Houston is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Utah
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Utah
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games at home
Utah is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

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**Udog** · 04-20-2019, 10:51 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 20

Philadelphia @ Brooklyn

Game 557-558
April 20, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
118.497
Brooklyn
120.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 2
237
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
232
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+1 1/2); Over

Denver @ San Antonio

Game 559-560
April 20, 2019 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
119.712
San Antonio
119.466
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
Even
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 3 1/2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3 1/2); Under

Milwaukee @ Detroit

Game 561-562
April 20, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
125.761
Detroit
112.607
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 13
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 8 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-8 1/2); Over

Houston @ Utah

Game 563-564
April 20, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
119.875
Utah
126.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 6 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 2 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-2 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 04-20-2019, 10:56 AM

Saturday's Late Tips
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 3

No. 1 Milwaukee at No. 8 Detroit (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET) -- Bucks lead 2-0

April 14 - Bucks (-15) 121 vs. Pistons 86 (Under 215.5)
April 17 – Bucks (-15.5) 120 vs. Pistons 99 (Over 215)

2018-19 Regular Season (Bucks 4-0, Under 2-1-1)
Dec. 5 - Bucks (-7.5) 115 vs. Pistons 92 (Under 225.5)
Dec. 17 – Bucks (-3) 107 at Pistons 104 (Under 225.5)
Jan. 1 – Bucks (-10) 121 at Pistons 98 (Push 219)
Jan. 29 – Bucks (-7) 115 at Pistons 105 (Over 216)

The Pistons are still playing the wait-and-see game with Blake Griffin, and if we are going to see him in the series, it figures to be here.

Although the organization would prefer he sit out after knee soreness foiled his finest season in the final stages of helping Detroit return to the playoffs, the 30-year-old franchise star is itching to play and hasn’t stopped rehabbing in an attempt to try and play.

The rumor mill has worked overtime regarding his return since he went from ruled out to nearly suiting up for Game 2, while conspiracy theorists believe the team was just trying to keep hope alive to ensure a sellout for the first playoff game in Little Caesar’s Arena history. Griffin wants to be a part of it and didn’t enjoy feeling powerless watching his teammates get largely destroyed in Milwaukee by the top-seeded Bucks.

The Pistons have been outscored by 56 points through the first two games and have only played one solid half out of four, surprisingly taking a 59-58 lead into halftime in Wednesday’s Game 2. The Bucks got busy coming out of the locker room to quickly take control and have imposed their will whenever they’ve needed to take control, doing so in the first few minutes to send a message in the opener and immediately after the break to squash all hope.

If he is, this series at least has a chance to be compelling.

Without Griffin, any lift the Pistons figure to get from a crowd that will get hyped up by star PA announcer Mason and the buzz of the playoffs being back in town figures to be short-lived. Luke Kennard has led Detroit in scoring, averaging 20 points per game while shooting 8-for-11 from 3-point range. The sniper the previous regime mistakenly took over Utah’s Donovan Mitchell with the No. 12 pick has started paying some dividends and caught fire down the stretch to help Detroit finish at .500 and reach the playoffs, but Kennard can’t be your leading scorer at this stage of the season.

If Griffin were able to come back and command some double-teams, the Pistons have gotten shooters Kennard, Wayne Ellington and Langston Galloway plenty of reps to try and gun their way to an upset. Without Griffin to worry about, the Bucks will be able to play straight up and utilize their depth to alter shots, trusting Brook Lopez to handle Andre Drummond’s limited post game one-on-one.

The Bucks are coasting by sharing the ball offensively. All five starters have scored at least eight points in both games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging a team-high 25 points but only played 30 minutes in Game 2 after playing less than half of the opener. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton have taken full advantage of their matchups and center Brook Lopez has led his team in plus-minus despite averaging just 11 points per game on 7-for-15 shooting.

Complacency is the only thing that’s going to keep the Bucks from sweeping the Pistons if Griffin stays away, and realistically, that’s pushing into dramatic territory. Even if Milwaukee doesn’t cover in Game 4, it would likely find a way to end the series so that it can start concentrating on the Celtics. The only way I can see Detroit pulling off a victory would be Griffin returning today and giving his team a solid 35 minutes, which I’m not sure is physically possible. A perfect combination of Griffin’s contributions and the infusion of energy a home crowd can boost the Pistons would have a chance of producing an upset if the Bucks lend a had with a poor shooting night. Milwaukee didn’t exactly shoot the lights out in the first two games in Fiserv Forum, finishing 26-for-69 from 3-point range (35 percent). In two visits to Little Caesar’s Arena this season, the Bucks shot 38.5 percent (22-for-57).

In other words, this could get uglier. Keep an eye on news out of Detroit throughout the day to see if there’s definitive word on Griffin, though I doubt we’ll see any until close to tip-off. The Bucks have some mental hurdles to overcome in getting up for the possibility of his presence in the series since their focus may crash if he isn’t cleared. They can’t afford something like that on the road, at least as far as them covering a sizeable spread is concerned. The Bucks matched the Warriors as the league’s top road team during the regular season, winning 27 of 41 away from home.

Only the Clippers (+10000) are a bigger underdog entering this first round than the Pistons (+2000) are against the Bucks, who were a 5-to-4 (+125) choice to win the East at the Westgate SuperBook even before the Raptors and 76ers blew their first-round Game 1s. Milwaukee entered the playoffs +600 to win the NBA title behind favored Golden State (-200) and led the NBA in wins and margin of victory all season while ranking in the top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Westgate tweaked their odds to win the East to even money and made them +500 to win the title as Golden State came down to -180.
Milwaukee has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in its last nine contests. The ‘under’ has prevailed in five of the last seven games involving Detroit.

Western Conference First Round – Game 3

No. 4 Houston at No. 5 Utah (ESPN, 10:35 p.m. ET) -- Rockets lead 2-0

April 14 – Rockets (-6.5) 122 vs. Jazz 90 (Under 212.5)
April 17 – Rockets (-6.5) 118 vs. Jazz 98 (Over 215)

2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 3-1)
Oct. 24 – Jazz (+1) 100 at Rockets 89 (Under 217)
Dec. 6 – Jazz (-1.5) 118 vs. Rockets 91 (Under 215.5)
Dec. 17 – Rockets (-5) 102 vs. Jazz 97 (Under 212)
Feb. 2 – Rockets (+7) 125 at Jazz 98 (Over 222)

The biggest disappointments we’ve seen so far in these playoffs have all been injury-related. Detroit’s Griffin being unable to play has made an entire series unwatchable. Golden State losing DeMarcus Cousins and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid’s being unable to shake his knee soreness have significantly affected our ability to watch history unfold. It would’ve been fun to see Boogie chase a title. We’re missing out on Embiid doing his thing after emerging as one of the most physically gifted players ever.

The biggest disappointment we’ve seen from a collective unit has come out of Utah. At least fellow No. 5-seed Indiana has no Victor Oladipo as an excuse for being down 3-0 to Boston, not to mention the fact it has actually been competitive and in every fourth quarter. The Jazz and Rockets have seen more garbage time this past week than most sanitation departments.

The Rockets finished off a 122-90 Game 1 win with a dominant performance in which the only mystery by game’s end came on the total, which failed to go ‘over’ by a half-point. Houston led by 28 points entering the fourth in Game 2 and combined to finish the deal for ‘over’ bettors with a productive final few minutes in which Isaiah Hartenstein saw the floor and contributed.

The Utah Jazz didn’t expect to see Hartenstein take the floor in this series. They probably didn’t expect to be throwing Ekpe Udoh out there at any point. The ugliness factor was unpredictable.

After putting away Sunday’s Game 1 by outscoring the Jazz 39-19 over the game’s final 12 minutes, the Rockets used a 39-19 first quarter to set the tone in Wednesday’s Game 2. The symmetry was impressive. Harden scored 25 first-half points while the Jazz opened by missing 13 of their first 14 3-point attempts. Donovan Mitchell is shooting 12-for-37 from the field in this series (32 percent) and said he and his teammates simply didn’t show up in Houston. Joe Ingles has shot 4-for-12 from the field and is just 2-for-9 from 3-point range. He looks disconnected.

James Harden has averaged 30.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 10 assists while easily managing to deal with Utah’s gimmick defense that has served to throw it completely out of rhythm.

Getting back home and having another two full days of preparation time afford the Jazz one last opportunity to try and salvage its season since a 3-0 hole would obviously be insurmountable considering two more games await in Houston.

Utah has won eight consecutive games at home, last losing on March 11. The Jazz were humbled by the Rockets the last time the teams squared off at Vivint Smart Home Arena, losing 125-98 on Feb. 2.

Each team won on the other’s home court once during the regular season and got blown out there as well. Rudy Gobert got ejected over a beef with the refs in the second meeting, a 27-point Jazz win, but he struggled with foul trouble in one of the games and finished with just 10 points in the 27-point loss in the most recent encounter back in February.

Between its guards struggling and Gobert being unable to impose his will as he’s typically able to, it’s no wonder Utah has looked so lost. Despite averaging 16.5 points and 12 rebounds in the series, Gobert is worst on the team in plus-minus at minus-43 thus far and has failed to significantly throw off either counterpart Clint Capela nor Harden on his drives.

After watching Houston cruise past Utah in each of the first two games at the Toyota Center, the Rockets are surprisingly listed as a road underdog for Game 3. NBA expert Chris David is among the masses confused by the number.

“As they say in boxing, styles make fights and Utah doesn’t have an answer for Houston on either end of the court. Outside of Donovan Mitchell, they don’t have anybody that can create a shot and if he’s off, the Jazz are done and that’s been the case so far,” David said. “Going back to last year’s conference semifinals matchup between the pair, Houston has won eight of the past 11 encounters and the Jazz needed to explode for 116 and 118 points in two of their wins. I just don’t see this year’s group turning it on, even at home. The late-season schedule was a joke and while they went 18-6 since the All-Star break, 14 wins came against non-playoff teams and that weak competition hasn’t prepared them for this series.”

The Jazz weren’t even as impressive at home this season as they have previously been, but they’re counting on the venue change and an opportunity to get their legs up under them as a way to get back in the series. The books labeling them the ‘favorite’ is odd since no one would’ve blinked to see the Rockets in that role or for this Game 3 to have been a pick’em, but the number budged only from 3 points to 2.5 as of Saturday morning. Many looking to bet this game will be factoring in their pre-series expectations of a long series in contrast with what we’ve seen thus far. VI’s David doesn’t face that problem.

“I expected this first round outcome to be a 4-0 sweep and I’ll press that prediction with a Rockets win on Saturday. Make a note that when catching points in this year’s regular season, the Rockets went 10-8 both SU and ATS and they didn’t cover in any of their losses. They have won four of their last five games in the underdog role, all against playoff clubs, and that includes the 27-point win at Utah in early February,” David explained. “Instead of taking the minimal points, I would suggest Houston on the money-line at +125 or get cute and play an adjusted number at a global book (5Dimes) on the Rockets at -1 ½ (+142), -3 ½ (+173) or -5 ½ (-235) with an even better return.”

The ‘over’ has prevailed in four of the last five Jazz games, but the late-season atmosphere might have had something to do with that. The ‘under’ had gone 14-6 from Feb. 27-April 5. The low-side in 15-6-1 over the Rockets’ last 22 contests since the beginning of March.

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