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**Udog** · 04-19-2019, 09:11 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

— Tampa Bay Rays have outscored opponents 22-3 in first inning.

— A’s signed DH Khris Davis to a 2-year, $33.5 contract extension.

— Kyle Freeland has made 33 career starts at Coors Field; under is 27-6.

— Mariners 11, Angels 10— Seattle blew a 10-2 lead, won in 9th inning.

— Golden St 132, Clippers 105— Warriors led 73-52 at halftime.

— St Louis 3, Winnipeg 2— Blues trailed 2-0 after second period.

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) St John’s struggled with hiring a basketball coach; apparently there was an internal divide about who the school should go after. St John’s is located in Jamaica, Queens, which is part of New York City. You’d think it would be a prime job.

The basketball coach at Loyola-Chicago interviewed for the St John’s job, was offered an 8-year contract that doubled his salary, and turned it down. Not many people turn down $2M a year.

Loyola is in the Missouri Valley Conference, the 15th-rated league in America. Ramblers have been in the MVC for six years, going 27-9 the last two years, after going 27-45 in their first four years, when Wichita State was in the Valley and it was a tougher league (#10 league in 2017).

12) Porter Moser is the Loyola coach who turned St John’s down; he’s been a head coach for 15 years at three schools. Here is his breakdown:

2001-03, Ark-Little Rock: 48-34 overall, 25-19 in Sun Belt games. No trips to NCAA’s.
2004-07, Illinois State: 51-67 overall, 22-50 in MVC games, when both Creighton/Wichita were in the league. No trips to NCAA’s.
2012-present, Loyola: 141-125 overall, 6-28 in Horizon games, then 54-54 in MVC. One trip to NCAA’s.

11) 15 years as a head coach, one time in the NCAA tournament, but it was one great time, An 11-seed in 2018, Loyola made it to the Final Four, with three of their four wins in NCAA’s that year by either one or two points.

Big East was the #5 league this season, after being #2 or #3 the previous four years.

10) Then there is Iona coach Tim Cluess, who is 199-108 in nine years as coach at Iona, which is in New Rochelle. According to Mapquest, Iona/St John’s are 19.1 miles apart. Under Cluess, Iona is 124-46 in MAAC games; they’ve made the NCAA tournament the last four years and six of last eight years.

Cluess also coached D-II ball at CW Post (now LIU Post) for four years, going 98-23.

Cluess played at St John’s from 1979-81; three of his brothers also played at St John’s; he knows the NYC/New Jersey area. Not sure why St John’s didn’t hire him, but Cluess took his name out of the running Thursday.

Update: St John’s hired former UAB/Missouri/Arkansas coach Mike Anderson. His teams will play hard and play fast. He’s never had a losing season (two 16-16 seasons) and won 20+ games in 11 of 17 seasons as a head coach.

Elsewhere in the world……..
9) Chargers are going to wear their powder blue jerseys as their home uniform for the 2019 season, which is a smart decision. I’m wondering how many fans come up from San Diego to Carson for Charger home games now; they move into the Inglewood dome in 2020.

8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers might not be too happy with their 2019 schedule; they go seven weeks without playing a home game, and during those 49 days, they’ll travel a total of 20,378 miles to play in Los Angeles, New Orleans, London, Nashville and Seattle.

They play the Giants at home in Week 3, and then not again until Week 10.

7) USC has already added three grad transfers for next season, all kids who can shoot the 3; they shot 37-40-45% from the arc last year, at Akron-Columbia-San Jose State. Trojans have couple of highly-touted freshman big men coming in- they should be a lot better next season.

6) First seven games at the new ballpark in Las Vegas was 9,744, which amounts to seven sellouts. AAA Aviators are the Oakland A’s farm club.

Old ballpark was downtown, next to the Cashman Center; terrific park to watch a game. New park is in Summerlin, right near the Red Rock Hotel, roughly 14 miles from downtown.

5) LSU told athletic director Joe Alleva take a hike; not sure what this means for basketball coach Will Wade, who was suspended by Alleva but was reinstated last week.

4) Baseball injuries:
— A’s put P Marco Estrada (back) on the IL.
— Phillies put OF Odubel Herrera (hamstring) in the IL.

3) In 2015, there were 104 complete games pitched in the major leagues, only 42 last year.

2) Joey Votto popped out to the first baseman Wednesday night, for the first time in his 6,828 major league plate appearances. He still has never popped out to the catcher or the pitcher.

1) New Jersey Jets do not leave the eastern time zone at all during the 2019 season; they even have three home games in preseason, seeing how the Jets-Giants game is a Giants “home” game.

By way of contrast, LA Rams play four games in eastern time zone, a preseason game in Hawai’i and a regular season game in London. Lot of travel for them.

**Udog** · 04-19-2019, 09:14 AM

**Udog** · 04-19-2019, 09:25 AM

551Toronto -552 Orlando
ORLANDO is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts in the last 3 seasons.

553Boston -554 Indiana
BOSTON is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

555Portland -556 Oklahoma City
PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, April 19

Toronto @ Orlando

Game 551-552
April 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
127.757
Orlando
120.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 7
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-4 1/2); Over

Boston @ Indiana

Game 553-554
April 19, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
121.846
Indiana
115.931
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 6
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3
203 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-3); Under

Portland @ Oklahoma City

Game 555-556
April 19, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
125.461
Oklahoma City
120.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 4 1/2
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 7 1/2
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+7 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, April 19

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TORONTO (59 - 25) at ORLANDO (43 - 41) - 4/19/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 207-262 ATS (-81.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
ORLANDO is 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 126-163 ATS (-53.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 7-6 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-5 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (51 - 33) at INDIANA (48 - 36) - 4/19/2019, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 231-171 ATS (+42.9 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
INDIANA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 100-79 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 52-39 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 70-54 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (55 - 29) at OKLAHOMA CITY (49 - 35) - 4/19/2019, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 47-37 ATS (+6.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
PORTLAND is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 78-92 ATS (-23.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 56-76 ATS (-27.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a division game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-49 ATS (-20.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 9-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 19

Orlando won 12 of its last 15 games, eight in row at home; they lost by 29 in Canada Tuesday; Magic was 9-34 on arc in Game 2, after going 14-29 in first game. Raptors won three of last five visits to Orlando (1-4 vs spread). Six of last eight series games stayed under. Lowry scored 22 points in Game 2, after going scoreless in Game 11; he is +41 in 72:00 on floor in this series. Toronto won eight of its last ten games overall; they covered five of last six road games. Toronto won seven of its last ten games with the Magic; seven of last nine series games stayed under. Seven of last nine Orlando games went over the total.

Celtics outscored Indiana 10-0 over final 0:52 to pull out Game 2, grab 2-0 series lead; they outscored Pacers 93-70 in 2nd half of those games. Indiana’s bench was -52 in Game 2. Pacers lost 10 of last 15 games overall; they’ve lost three of last four road games. Over is 11-7 in their last 18 games. Celtics won eight of their last ten games; they won/covered four of last five road games. Four of their last six games stayed under. Both games in this series stayed under total. Tatum/Irving combined for 63 points in Game 2; other three Boston starters scored 15 points. Celtics won their last five games with the Pacers.

Oklahoma City was 10-61 on arc in losing Games 1-2 in Portland; Thunder won/covered their last three home games. Westbrook is 13-37 from floor in series, 1-10 on arc. Nine of last 12 OKC games stayed under. Trailblazers won 17 of their last 20 games overall; they’re 3-4 vs spread in last seven road games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. Blazers are 7-4 in last 11 series games; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Oklahoma. Six of last eight series games stayed under. Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years.

NBA

Friday, April 19

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Trend Report
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Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Toronto is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando Magic
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 9 games
Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Orlando is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Orlando is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 18 games
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 15 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indiana's last 15 games when playing at home against Boston

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Portland is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games on the road
Portland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 8 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Portland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Portland's last 25 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oklahoma City's last 13 games at home
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Portland
Oklahoma City is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Oklahoma City's last 25 games when playing at home against Portland

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**Udog** · 04-19-2019, 11:01 AM

Friday's Tip Sheet
Chris David

The NBA Playoffs began last Saturday and underdogs came out firing with a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread. Since those results, favorites have struck back with an eye-opening 14-1 run and the ‘chalk’ has covered in every win, which tells you that the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of the first 19 games played this postseason. The ‘under’ owns an 11-7-1 record so far and that includes three ‘over’ winners last night.

Friday’s card has three intriguing Game 3’s on tap and all of these series will meet again in Game 4 matchups on Sunday. With the help of experts Kevin Rogers and Tony Mejia, below is our quick handicap of tonight’s action.

Eastern Conference First Round Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)

Toronto at Orlando (ESPN, 7:05 p.m. ET)

This series has played out accordingly based on Toronto’s recent playoff history – lose Game 1, win Game 2. That’s what happened in Canada and now the Raptors will look to build off their dominating 111-82 victory over the Magic on Tuesday.

Oddsmakers opened Toronto as a 4 ½-point road favorite and a handful of books are holding -5 as of Friday morning. Kevin Rogers offered up his thoughts on Game 3. He noted, “It’s been a minute since the Magic have hosted a playoff game (2012) and a little longer since they were last victorious at Amway Center in the postseason (Game 5 of the 2011 first round). However, Orlando has maintained a strong home-court advantage down the stretch this season by winning nine straight and 13 of the past 14 games in central Florida. The Magic covered in both home contests against the Raptors this season as an underdog, including a 116-87 blowout in late December.”

Orlando finished the season 25-16 SU and 23-17-1 ATS at home and as Rogers mentioned, plenty of those wins came down the stretch. As a home ‘dog, the Magic were hit or miss this season (9-9 SU, 10-7-1 ATS).

The Raptors definitely came to play on the road this season (26-15 SU, 19-21-1 ATS) and they went 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games as an away favorite. However, Rogers dug up an angle that could make you hesitant to lay the points tonight.

He explained, “Since Toronto won all three Game 3’s in the 2016 playoffs, the Raptors have dropped four consecutive Game 3’s over the last two postseasons. In the last two seasons in Game 3’s of the first round, the Raptors were blown out at Milwaukee in Game 3 in 2016 by a 104-77 count, while the Wizards ripped up the Raptors, 122-103 in 2017. However, Toronto came back and won both of the series on the road and clinched in Game 6.”

The ’under’ went 2-0 in the first two games and the number closed 212 ½ in each matchup. Friday’s number is hovering between 209 ½ and 210. Toronto averaged 113.7 points per game on the road this season and it leaned to the ‘over’ (23-18) but for this ‘over’ to cash, you’ll need Orlando to produce and it hasn’t been consistent offensively (107 PPG) all season.

Eastern Conference First Round Game 3 (Celtics lead 2-0)

Boston at Indiana (ABC, 8:35 p.m. ET)

We’ve all seen plenty of “Bad Beats” in sports betting in our time but last Wednesday’s Game 2 finish between the Pacers and Celtics was tough to stomach for any bettor who had Indiana +7 ½ points. Boston trailed 91-89 with less than a minute left in the fourth quarter and bettors taking the points were ready to light up the cigar and celebrate. Some newbies may’ve been worried about a potential loss in overtime and that’s fair but Indiana looked golden. Sure enough, Boston closed the game on a 10-0 run and seven of those points came in the final 12 seconds. Pacers head coach Nate McMillan called it the worst minute of basketball he's seen in a long time. The play-by-play doesn’t do the final minute justice and I would suggest catching up when you can with the video.

Fast forward to Friday and Indiana is listed as a three-point home favorite over Boston. I personally don’t like backing teams off bad losses yet alone two poor outings.

I understand that Indiana was in both games but a bad quarter in each contest at TD Garden turned out to be the difference. At the end of the day, losses are losses and the facts are that the Pacers are now 8-16 since the All-Star break and they have nobody that can measure up to Boston’s stars due to the leg injury of Victor Oladipo.

The Pacers have a crafty group of veterans and they’re now led by Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young, two solid players but not All-Stars. What wins in the playoffs, All-Stars! It’s been reported that Oladipo is expected to attend Game 3 on Friday, marking his first public appearance in Bankers Life Fieldhouse since his injury. His presence will likely get the squad going in the first quarter and half but can Indiana put forth a 48-minute performance against a more talented team?

By the way, oddsmakers have already juiced up both 1st quarter (-2 ½) and 1st half (-3) numbers on the Pacers. Backing a playoff home team down 0-2 in Game 3 in the first 24 minutes was a well-known system that turned out some great profits over the years, close to 90 percent. But it tapered off last year (5-5 ATS) and you can see that the books took the value out of the angle with these numbers. OKC is also in play and its Game 3 numbers (quarter, half) are even more inflated.

The Celtics are listed as high as plus-130 (Bet $100 to win $130) on the money-line tonight. Brad Stevens team was much better on the road last season (28-13) compared to the current campaign (21-20). As a road ‘dog, the club went 6-8 SU and 8-6 ATS. In last year’s playoff run without a full healthy squad, Boston went 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. Indiana went 2-1 at home in its first round series loss to Cleveland last season.

The ‘under’ connected easily in each of the first two games and tonight’s total is 204. Neither team has broken 100 points in the playoffs and if the Pacers post another quarter of 8 or 12 points, it’s hard to imagine them getting over the century mark again.

Western Conference First Round Game 3 (Trail Blazers lead 2-0)

Portland at Oklahoma City (ESPN, 9:35 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers are expecting Oklahoma City (-7 ½) to come out firing at Chesapeake Energy Arena on Friday in Game 3 even after getting humbled in two straight games at Portland.

Tony Mejia provided his handicap on the must-win spot for the Thunder. “I’m looking for the Thunder to not bother with the pleasantries as they host this must-win Game 3. There can’t be a feeling-out process. There’s no time for Paul George to find a rhythm with his shoulder issue or for Russell Westbrook’s jump shot to magically return. Oklahoma City must impose its will on the defensive end, something it failed to accomplish in Portland in letting C.J. McCollum and Enes Kanter immediately establish themselves in the opening quarter to provide support for Damian Lillard. McCollum is averaging 28.5 points per game in the series, so keeping him from becoming a factor early has to be a major point of emphasis,” said Mejia.

As Mejia noted, George hasn’t been George in this series but he’s encouraging his teammates to keep firing. ''Keep shooting,'' George said after Wednesday’s loss. ''We're going to make shots. Keep shooting. We missed shots, so what? Keep shooting.''

Those following OKC this season know that it’s not a great 3-point shooting team outside of George and if they play like they did in Portland, another loss seems inevitable. This season, the Thunder have gone 2-14 when shooting 41 percent or less from the field. OKC shot 39.8 percent in Game 1 and 40.7 percent in Game 2 while going a combined 10-of-61 (16%) from 3-point land.

Mejia believes we’ll see the Thunder be more aggressive on defense and that sets up a potential first-quarter wager. He explained, “The Blazers held off OKC at home on the strength of a brilliant first 12 minutes in Game 1 and a dominant Game 2 third quarter. If the Thunder are going to turn things around, they must physically impose their will on the defensive end. Since the venue change will naturally have Portland on its heels as it seeks out a comfort zone, capturing the first quarter is a must for the Thunder. Riding Oklahoma City -3.5 is appealing. Backing under 54 is a play I highly recommend. The threat of the Blazers eventually finding a rhythm exists since they have the shooters to hunt down the Thunder if they suffer through one of their stretches where points are hard to come by, so the safest bet on OKC is probably one that capitalizes on its hunger early.”

Portland lost both of its visits to Oklahoma City this season (123-114, 120-111) and its defense was diced up in each matchup. The Trail Blazers have always been a better home team but they’ve been great as visitors down the stretch. Since losing at OKC on Feb. 11, Portland closed the season with an 11-5 record both SU and ATS on the road. The five setbacks came by an average of 6.8 PPG and that’s in the same average of tonight’s spread.

Trail Blazers All-Star Damian Lillard has stepped up in this series (29.5 PPG, 5 APG) and some pundits now believe he’s better than Russell Westbrook. In 15 head-to-head matchups, Lillard’s team holds a slight 13-12 edge so the argument has some substance. I’m a fan of both players and if Lillard really wants to grab the torch, then he needs to produce on the road in the playoffs.

Portland won its first two road playoff games with Lillard in the 2013-14 postseason, Game 1 and 2 at Houston. Since those victories, the Trail Blazers have gone 1-16 SU and 3-13-1 ATS with the lone win coming against a hobbled Clippers team missing two All-Stars (Paul, Griffin). You want respect “Dame” from bettors? Cashing a 5/2 money-line ticket as a live road ‘dog would certainly get it.

Since Kevin Durant departed the Thunder, the team has gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home in the playoffs.

Announcement

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/19

Friday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/19

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