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**Udog** · 04-18-2019, 08:50 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Rays 8, Orioles 1— Tampa Bay has won 14 of its first 18 games.

— Cubs 6, Marlins 0— Miami is 4-15 and sinking fast.

— Indians 1, Mariners 0— Seattle started season 13-2, has now lost six in a row.

— A’s 2, Astros 1— Oakland beats its division rival for first time in five tries.

— Royals 4, White Sox 3 (10)— Tim Anderson homered, tossed his bat, then got drilled his next time up and the benches emptied. Go figure.

— Pacers (+7.5) were up 2 with 0:51 left in Boston, and not only lost….they didn’t cover the spread, losing 99-91.

Week 1 NFL spreads

Packers @ Bears (-3.5, 46)
Falcons @ Vikings (-4.5, 47.5)
Redskins @ Eagles (-8, 46.5)
Bills @ Jets (-3.5, 38.5)
Ravens (-3.5, 37) @ Dolphins
49ers @ Buccaneers (-2.5, 49)
Chiefs (-5.5, 52.5) @ Jaguars
Titans @ Browns (-5, 45)
Rams (-2.5, 51) @ Panthers
Lions @ Cardinals (even, 49)
Bengals @ Seahawks (-7.5, 43.5)
Colts @ Chargers (-3.5, 48)
Giants @ Cowboys (-7.5, 46.5)
Steelers @ Patriots (-6, 51.5)
Texans @ Saints (-7.5, 53.5)
Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5, 43)

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Quick comments on the 2019 NFL schedule

13) 100th season of the NFL starts with league’s oldest rivals (Packers/Bears) opening the season with a Thursday night game in Chicago September 5.

12) Monday night doubleheader in Week 1: Texans @ Saints, Broncos @ Raiders.

11) Cleveland Browns have four primetime games:
— Week 2, at Jets (Monday night)
— Week 3, Rams (Sunday night)
— Week 5, at 49ers (Monday night)
— Week 11, Steelers (Thursday night)

10) Reunion games:
— Bears @ Raiders, Week 5 (Khalil Mack against his old team)
— Redskins @ Vikings, Week 8 (Kirk Cousins against his old team)

9) Teams that open with two straight home games:
Panthers-Dolphins-Jets-Raiders

Teams that open with two straight road games:
Bills-Colts-Chiefs-49ers

8) Teams that finish with two straight home games:
Broncos-Vikings-Patriots-Seahawks-Buccaneers.

Teams that finish with two straight road games:
Cardinals-Packers-Saints-Raiders-Steelers.

7) Thanksgiving Day games:
Bears-Lions, Bills-Cowboys, Saints-Falcons

6) Pittsburgh plays five of its last seven games on road; they play Cleveland twice in three weeks, in Weeks 11, 13.

5) Teams with three straight weeks on road:
— Eagles, Week 6-8. This appears to be the only one in the whole league. Am guessing Philly brass won’t be happy with this.

4) Miami plays one road game in the first six weeks; they have four home games and a bye, with only road game in in Week 3 at Dallas.

3) Divisional games in Week 1:
Packers-Bears, Bills-Jets, Giants-Cowboys, Broncos-Raiders, Redskins-Eagles

2) Earliest byes: Jets, 49ers in Week 4.
Latest byes: Cardinals, Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings in Week 12.

1) No Thursday night game in Week 16-17.

**Udog** · 04-18-2019, 08:53 AM

**Udog** · 04-18-2019, 08:59 AM

543Philadelphia -544 Brooklyn
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) after a division game in the current season.

545Denver -546 San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days in the current season.

547Golden State -548 La Clippers
GOLDEN STATE is 87-59 ATS (22.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 18

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PHILADELPHIA (52 - 32) at BROOKLYN (43 - 41) - 4/18/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BROOKLYN is 46-38 ATS (+4.2 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 34-24 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
BROOKLYN is 66-52 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
BROOKLYN is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 141-116 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 159-124 ATS (+22.6 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 76-56 ATS (+14.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 7-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 9-5 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (55 - 29) at SAN ANTONIO (49 - 35) - 4/18/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1091-957 ATS (+38.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 860-735 ATS (+51.5 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 196-145 ATS (+36.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (58 - 26) at LA CLIPPERS (49 - 35) - 4/18/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-47 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-44 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-60 ATS (-20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 28-42 ATS (-18.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-37 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 61-45 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 137-101 ATS (+25.9 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 87-59 ATS (+22.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 176-220 ATS (-66.0 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 230-291 ATS (-90.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 18

76ers scored 80 points in 2nd half of Game 2 after leading by 1 at half; Brooklyn missed defensive ace Dudley, who was +16 in 28:00 in Game 1. Philly shot 56% from floor in Game 2 win; they’re 3-5 in last eight games overall, 2-5 vs spread in last seven road games. Brooklyn’s bench was +74 in Game 1, -7 in Game 2; Nets won four of last five games overall- they’re 35 vs spread in last eight home games. Four of their last six games stayed under. Six of 76ers’ last eight games went over. Sixers won five of their last eight games with Brooklyn; three of last four series games went over

Denver ended Game 2 on a 55-27 run, coming back from 19 down to win 114-105, evening series 1-1. Murray scored 24 points, 21 in 4th quarter, after going 8-24 in Game 1. Home team has now won 11 of last 12 series games. Nuggets split their last 14 games, are 1-5 vs spread in last six road games; they were 10-24 on arc in Game 2, after going 6-28 in Game 1. Denver lost its last four visits (2-2 vs spread) to the Alamo. Five of last six series games stayed under the total. Spurs’ four subs were +32 in Game 1, -34 in Game 2; they gave up 39 points in 4th quarter Tuesday. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09.

Golden State led by 23 at half, by 31 with 7:30 left in 3rd quarter, but lost Game 2 at home, biggest comeback win in NBA playoff history. Warriors had 69-73 points at halftime of first two games; they lost Cousins (quad) early in Game 2. Warriors won seven of its last nine games (under 5-3-1). Clippers lost four of last six games; over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games. Williams scored had 36 points off bench in Game 2. Warriors won nine of last 12 games with the Clippers, but LA covered five of last eight. Nine of last 12 series games went over. LA is 3-6 vs spread in its last nine games at Staples.

NBA

Thursday, April 18

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Trend Report
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Philadelphia 76ers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games
Brooklyn is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 7 games at home
Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Brooklyn's last 10 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 14 games on the road
Denver is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 13 games at home
San Antonio is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Golden State's last 23 games
Golden State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 11 games on the road
Golden State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Golden State's last 13 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Clippers is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
LA Clippers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Clippers's last 15 games
LA Clippers is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
LA Clippers is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 8 games at home
LA Clippers is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Clippers's last 13 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 04-18-2019, 10:40 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 18

Philadelphia @ Brooklyn

Game 543-544
April 18, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
119.667
Brooklyn
119.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
Even
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
227 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+3); Under

Denver @ San Antonio

Game 545-546
April 18, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
120.212
San Antonio
118.967
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 4
210
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+4); Over

Golden State @ LA Clippers

Game 547-548
April 18, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
126.276
LA Clippers
113.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 12 1/2
245
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8 1/2
237
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 04-18-2019, 11:23 AM

Thursday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 3

No. 3 Philadelphia at No. 6 Brooklyn (TNT, 8:10 p.m. ET) -- Series tied 1-1
Apr. 13 - Nets (+7.5) 111 at 76ers 102 (Under 228)
Apr. 15 - 76ers (-8.5) 145 vs. Nets 123 (Over 224.5)

2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Over 3-1)
Nov. 4 – Nets (+4) 122 vs. 76ers 97 (Under 224)
Nov. 25 – 76ers (-4.5) 127 at Nets 125 (Over 226)
Dec. 12 – Nets (+6) 127 at 76ers 123 (Over 224.5)
Mar. 28 - 76ers (-7) 123 vs. Nets 110 (Over 231.5)

The Nets got the split they coveted in Philadelphia and now hope that shooting on familiar rims at Barclays Center will help them take down a division rival in the Eastern Conference series that has seen the most bad blood develop. While bickering in Warriors-Clippers and Trail Blazers-Thunder has crossed the line at times, this series has seen the most hostile act of the playoffs to date.

Joel Embiid could have certainly been thrown out for swinging his elbow on a post move against Brooklyn center Jarrett Allen late in the second quarter. He caught Allen squarely, rocking him backward, and ended up receiving a Flagrant 1 that could’ve just as easily been determined as a Flagrant 2, which comes with an immediate ejection. Only the officials truly know why they pardoned Embiid, be it the fact that he’s an All-Star or that the game was being played in Philly, but there’s no question that if they would’ve been well within their rights to throw him out. It looked excessive. In my opinion, if it had happened in a regular-season game, he would’ve been gone.

After the game, Embiid and Ben Simmons broke up in laughter as he attempted a half-hearted apology for catching Allen so viciously, so there’s no question the Nets feel disrespected and a little slighted since the favorite caught a break and then proceeded to break off a 51-point third quarter to avoid falling in a potentially insurmountable hole in the series. The incident hovers as a factor that must be taken into account prior to tonight’s game since it’s likely to affect how the game is called early.

James Capers, Courtney Kirkland and Scott Wall are on the whistle for this one.

Embiid is once again listed as ’questionable’ due to his lingering knee issues but he appears more certain to play than he was before either of the two home games, where his availability won’t be determined until close to tip-off. If I were Nets coach Kenny Atkinson, I’d funnel the ball inside and see if I can’t get an early call or two on the 76ers star simply because officials are going to be on high alert to curb any potential nonsense immediately.

Embiid has made no secret of the fact that he’s playing through pain and soreness. He’s dealing with a minutes restriction that may ultimately be lifted if he continues to feel better but is expected to remain in place tonight. Boban Marjanovic has played a large role and should continue to be a major x-factor, particularly if Embiid lands in foul trouble. On the Brooklyn’s side, backup forward Ed Davis’ tremendous play off the bench was a major factor in the opener but he struggled to get going in Game 2.

After slowing Ben Simmons down in Game 1, his physical gifts proved to be too tough to stop on Monday night as he helped key a 14-0 run to open the second half, helping even the series. He notched his second career triple-double, so part of Brooklyn’s game plan will be to keep him from getting into the paint or in transition as easily as he did. Although the Nets were known as a high-tempo team throughout the regular-season, finishing 10th in pace, it might benefit them to slow the game down some since the 76ers have looked ordinary when being forced to employ their typical offense in halfcourt sets.

Phladelphia ranked eighth in pace this season and has been streaky shooting it early on in the series. On the road, that could certainly be an issue, which is why my lean would ordinarily favor the ‘under’ (59) in the first quarter, especially if officials throw off rotations by utilizing their whistles frequently early on. That could, however, lead to both teams getting into the penalty early, which could pose a concern since both lineups are filled with strong free-throw shooters outside of Simmons. Philadelphia shot 3-for-25 from 3-point range in Game 1 but finished 9-for-23 from beyond the arc on Wednesday.

The Nets are just 7-8 at home since February began and have played at Barclays only eight time since March 1 since they had to survive longest road trip of the season last month. At 23-18, Brooklyn had the worst home mark of any team that reached the postseason this season, so it isn’t exactly surprising to see them in an underdog role here. The 76ers finished 20-21 on the road and dropped three of their final four games in opposing gyms, losing to the likes of Dallas, Atlanta and Miami while winning only in Chicago.

Philadelphia was -800 to get out of this first round according to series prices set at the Westgate Superbook prior to Saturday’s start to the postseason but came all the way down to -220 after dropping the opener. The Nets were moved to +180 after opening at +550 prior to Game 1.

The over has prevailed in six of the last eight games involving Philadelphia, so I don’t think it’s a reach to expect them to push tempo whenever possible after their Game 2 exploits. Conversely, Brooklyn is 5-1 SU/ATS in games that have failed to surpass the posted total since March 22, which includes their Game 1 upset.

Jarrett Dudley, who missed Game 2 with calf soreness, is expected to return.

Western Conference First Round – Game 3

No. 2 Denver at No. 7 San Antonio (NBA TV, 9:10 p.m. ET) -- Seiries tied 1-1
Apr. 13 - Spurs (+5.5) 101 vs. Clippers 96 (Under 210.5)
Apr. 16 - Nuggets (-7) 114 vs. Clippers 105 (Over 210.5)

2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 4-0)
Dec. 26 – Spurs (-4) 111 vs. Nuggets 103 (Under 216)
Dec. 28 – Nuggets (-4.5) 102 at Raptors 99 (Under 216.5)
Mar. 4 – Spurs (-1.5) 104 vs. Nuggets 103 (Under 229.5)
Apr. 3 – Nuggets (-5) 113 at Spurs 85 (Under 214.5)

The Spurs were outscored by 16 points in the fourth quarter and only managed to beat Nuggets’ point guard Jamal Murray 23-21 in coughing up an opportunity to venture into this Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 lead.

Despite coughing up a 78-59 third-quarter lead in the most un-Spurs like fashion possible, getting sloppy and allowing a single player to find a rhythm and get to whatever shot he wanted, San Antonio remains in a position of strength. Gregg Popovich has a history of pressing the right buttons following a loss and has to take some blame since he failed to make the proper adjustments and drew an ill-timed technical foul to further aid Denver’s cause.

There’s also the fact that the Nuggets haven’t defeated the Spurs in a playoff series since 1985, dropping four straight, or that they haven’t won at the AT&T Center since March 4, 2012, carrying a 13-game losing streak in the building into Thursday’s Game 3. After stealing homecourt in a game where neither LaMarcus Aldridge or DeMar DeRozan played well, shooting 33 percent combined, San Antonio saw both improve in Game 2 as they combined for 55 points. Paul Millsap was much better for Denver after a dismal Game 1, so we’ll see what adjustments are made at both ends here.

After watching the ‘under’ connect in Game 1, the ‘over’ cashed in Game 2 on Tuesday and that was helped with 61 and 62-point efforts by the pair in the second and fourth quarter respectively. Chris David of VegasInsider.com weighed in on the total for Game 3 and offered up his handicap.

“Bettors continue to bet into the ‘under’ in this series and I can’t disagree with the lean based on the offensive form for Denver and San Antonio’s reluctance to shoot from 3-point land, which is a rarity in the NBA. Even though Nuggets ended up with 114 in Game 2, the offense only had 56 points in the first 30 minutes,” David said. “The stars aligned for ‘everybody’ and they put up 58 points in the final quarter and a half of action. Will that confidence and momentum travel to San Antonio? It certainly could but backing the high side seems iffy, especially knowing that Denver watched the ‘under’ go 25-16 outside of the Pepsi Center this season and that included a 9-4 mark to the low side in away games since the All-Star break.” The ‘under’ is on a 22-8 run over the past few months of Denver games and all five of the six meetings between these teams resulted in games that failed to eclipse the posted total, so trend-trackers are right to favor the low-side. The ‘under’ is 17-6 in the last 23 games involving San Antonio and likely wouldn’t have gotten there in Game 2 if it weren’t for Murray’s flurry. It’s worth wondering whether finding his stroke will lead to his team turning the corner and playing like the favorite in this series that they were expected to be or if his outburst was simply a band-aid masking how bad the Nuggets have otherwise been, not only against San Antonio but down the stretch as they seemed to fade some despite finishing as Northwest Division champs.

“Denver’s final six road games of the season all came against playoff teams. Not only did the team struggle to a 1-5 record in those contests, they allowed 115 PPG. Make a note that Denver had a 6.2 difference (103.6, 109.8 PPG) in its home and away defensive scoring numbers this season, which was ranked 28th in the league. Coincidentally, San Antonio was 30th in difference and the unit was much stronger at home (106 PPG),” VI’s David points out. “That defensive effort helped the Spurs close the season with a 16-4 mark at the AT&T Center and that included five straight wins against playoff teams. In those victories, they only allowed 105.4 PPG and the top two betting choices to win the NBA Finals (Bucks, Warriors) were in that group too. With all those numbers considered, I would lean to the Denver Team Total Under (104) on Thursday.”

There are no injury concerns for this one. Ed Malloy, David Guthrie and Mark Lindsay will be the NBA’s officials.

Western Conference First Round – Game 2

No. 1 Golden State at No. 8 L.A. Clippers (TNT, 10:40 p.m. ET) -- Series tied 1-1
Apr. 13 - Warriors (-13.5) 121 vs. Clippers 104 (Under 233)
Apr. 15 - Clippers (+13.5) 135 at Warriors 131 (Over 234)

2018-19 Regular Season (Warriors 3-1, Split 2-2)
Nov. 12 - Clippers (+3.5) 121 vs. Warriors 116 (Over 226.5)
Dec. 23 – Warriors (-11) 129 vs. Clippers 127 (Over 234)
Jan. 18 – Warriors (-7.5) 112 at Clippers 94 (Under 241.5)
Apr. 7 – Warriors (-11.5) 131 vs. Clippers 104 (Under 237.5)

Losing DeMarcus Cousins hurt the Warriors since it’s always painful to lose a teammate, especially a popular one, but his departure to a torn quad that will likely keep him out for the remainder of the postseason played absolutely no role in what transpired over the game’s final quarter-and-a-half. Cousins’ injury came in the first quarter, long before Golden State built a 31-point lead it would eventually blow as the Clippers engineered the biggest playoff comeback in league history.

Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell continued to have their way in the series, which is what Steve Kerr and his staff must find a way to neutralize most, but it’s hard to imagine this series against the eight-seed Clippers becoming too complicated for the two-time defending champs. Kevon Looney, who is in line to split time with Andrew Bogut in replacing Cousins inside, shot 6-for-6 and finished with a career-high 19 points, while Patrick Beverley’s pesky defense against Kevin Durant proved to be a nuisance but certainly wasn’t keeping the Warriors from executing in the manner they wanted to for the better part of three quarters. They simply took their foot off the gas, lost focus and were caught by a team that has one of the league’s most gifted playmakers and individual scorers in Sixth Man of the Year lock Lou Williams, not to mention a number of knock-down shooters in veteran Danilo Gallinari and rookie Landry Shamet, whose late 3-pointer gave the Clippers the stunning upset.

Oddsmakers stopped short of making the Warriors a double-digit favorite in L.A. but are expecting a high-scoring affair in placing this total at 237 as an opener – the highest figure we’ve seen to date throughout all eight matchups.

Can Golden State, embarrassed and angry at the fact they’ve guaranteed themselves at least another game in this first-round series, respond on the road better than they did at Oracle, where they followed up a 21-turnover Game 1 by committing 22 in Monday’s loss? Durant was the main culprit with nine miscues and fouled out of Game 2 after being ejected in Game 1, so it’s clear that Doc Rivers’ plan to have Beverley pester him for the entire time he’s on the floor has worked to take him out of his game.

Durant addressed the situation on Wednesday and vowed to be better, but stopped short of saying he’d look to shoot more or deviate in any way from his typical style.

Golden State opened the postseason as a 2-to-7 favorite (-350) at Westgate to win the West and 1-to-2 (-200) to win the NBA title, so we’ll see whether their odds decrease given Cousins’ injury and their erratic showing in this series. They still have more than enough to win a third straight title and become the first team in league history to participate in five straight Finals, but the contrast between how they’ve opened the postseason and how potential semifinal opponent Utah has handled their business has been glaring.

This first road game of the 2019 postseason thus becomes a statement game for the Warriors, so it’s no surprise to see bettors have jumped all over them pushing the number from its opener (7.5) up to 8.5 where it resides at most shops.

Scott Foster, Jason Phillips and Scott Twardoski are the officials for Game 3, which is worth knowing since Foster has a reputation for being pro-Warriors and Phillips is a noted ‘over’ ref. The high-side has prevailed in 11 of the last 15 games involving Golden State.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/18

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