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**Udog** · 04-04-2019, 09:53 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some more very early NFL over/under win totals:

— Cincinnati 6, over -$115

— Cleveland 9, over +$120

— Dallas 8.5, 0ver -$135

— Denver 7, over -$115

— Detroit, 7

— Green Bay 9, 0ver -$125

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Was looking at an old picture of Ebbets Field in Brooklyn tonight; the dugouts there were a lot closer to the area behind home plate than they are now. I’m guessing dugouts were also much smaller then than they are now.

Which reminded me of an old story back when the Astros played in the Astrodome; someone told Houston’s owner that he could charge more money for seats behind the dugout, so that season, the Astrodome had the longest dugouts in major league history. Go figure.

12) Brewers 1, Reds 0— Memo to the Milwaukee analytics geniuses: This one is simple. Every time Freddy Peralta pitches, Manny Pina catches. Every time.

In 15 games with Pina behind the plate, batters have hit .168 vs Peralta.
In three games with other catchers, batters have hit .245 against him.

11) Nationals 9, Phillies 8— Jake Noll walked with the bases loaded to force in the winning run, handing the Phils their first loss, but he was sent to the minor leagues after the game, because Howie Kendrick comes off the DL tomorrow.

10) Last time the Phillies started a season 4-0? How about 1915. Wow.

9) Nuggets 113, Spurs 85— I’ve thought about picking NBA games on this site, but there are a lot of reasons why I don’t want to. Players taking games off when they’re not hurt is a big one.

Gregg Popovich got thrown out of this game 1:03 after it started, so obviously, the game didn’t mean much to him. Since the Spurs clinched a playoff spot last week, Popovich has been ejected twice in the Spurs’ last three games.

8) Coaching carousel:
— Texas A&M hired Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams
— Fairfield hired Rutgers assistant Jay Young as its new coach.

7) Fred Hoiberg is the new basketball coach at Nebraska; he was born in Lincoln.

His grandfather Jerry Bush coached the Cornhuskers in the late 50’s. Hoiberg’s other grandfather was a Sociology professor at Nebraska.

6) There are two basketball Hall of Fames; there is the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield, MA which includes all of basketball, and there is the College Basketball Hall of Fame in Kansas City.

No idea what goes into the selection process for either, but this is odd:
— Jerry Tarkanian is in the Naismith HOF, but not the college basketball HOF.
— Eddie Sutton is in the college basketball HOF, but not the Naismith HOF.

5) Virginia coach Tony Bennett banked a $250K bonus when the Cavaliers won their Sweet 16 game, and another $250K when Virginia made it to the Final Four.

4) Fantasy baseball is funny sometimes; guy in our league cut Hunter Renfroe this week, and rightfully so, he had only started one game this season, but same night Renfroe got cut, he gets the start against Arizona and hits two homers off of Zack Greinke. Go figure.

3) Colorado Rockies signed P German Marquez to a five-year, $43M contract extension.

Cubs signed IF David Bote to a 5-year, $15M extension.

2) Average salary for an NFL referee this season is scheduled to be $205,000. Pretty good part-time job.

1) Advance planning: Chicago White Sox’ home opener for Thursday afternoon was postponed at roughly noon Wednesday; it’ll be played Friday instead.

Likewise, the Cardinals’ home opener with San Diego today was also moved to Friday.

**Udog** · 04-04-2019, 09:57 AM

**Udog** · 04-04-2019, 09:59 AM

NIT Championship Betting Preview

Lipscomb vs. Texas (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Two programs who found themselves on the wrong end of the NCAA Tournament bubble have managed to put that disappointment aside to reach the title game of the NIT Tournament on Thursday night and it should be an intriguing matchup.

Lipscomb was probably never going to get an at-large bid coming out of the Atlantic Sun after losing that tournament's title game to Liberty. However, if you were to ask the guys on Lipscomb now would they prefer a chance at some NIT hardware over what would have likely been a one or two-game run in the NCAA Tournament, a few of them would be hard-pressed not to take the opportunity they've got in front of them on Thursday night.

Texas stumbled in the latter half of their Big 12 slate to essentially play themselves out of NCAA Tournament consideration, but getting someone like Kerwin Roach reinstated for post-season basketball has helped this team forget about that rough stretch. The Longhorns were able to knock off hated rival TCU for the first time in three tries to get to this NIT championship, and they come into this meeting with mid-major Lipscomb as a slight favorite.

With the sights, sounds, and nerves of playing at MSG gone out the window for both teams after their semi-final wins, which program gets to add some hardware to their trophy case on campus this year?

Odds: Texas (-1.5); Total set at 143

Right off the bat, bettors following the market will see that the 'under' in this game got hit pretty hard upon opening in the high 140's here at BetOnline.ag, but it's settled around in at 143 since then. Title games in any sport tend to get 'under' love regardless, so I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in such a significant move, but it's one to make note of for sure if you are considering a play on either side of this total. That's not something I'm interested in here though, as it's the side (and outright winner) I'm looking to back.

Texas is going to get some love here given they are the more known program in this spot and have dealt with better competition all year long, but I don't believe they should be the ones laying points here. Yes, it's been on the strength of the Longhorns defensive play that has gotten them here – holding Colorado to 55 points and TCU to 44 points the last two rounds was impressive – but for as solid as those results were, the Buffaloes and Horned Frogs were 124th and 128th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Enter Lipscomb, who ranks 32nd in the nation in that regard, scoring 83.6 points per game on the year, and have reached this point having played all of their NIT games either on the road or at a neutral site. And even still, Lipscomb has averaged 14.25 points more per game in the NIT than Texas has (85 vs 70.75) and the Longhorns have actually played a full five more minutes as well. Sometimes it's as simple as you need more points than the other team to win games, and in that respect, it's hard not to like Lipscomb's chances here.

Half of the Longhorns losses this year (8 of 16) have come when they closed as a favorite of any number this year, and there are some contests with them laying significant chalk as well. A 2-5 ATS run coming into this game isn't confidence building either, and with the overall youth this Longhorns team has in general, a championship game of any kind may still be too big of a moment for these guys.

Lipscomb has made a point during this NIT run that the level of play in these smaller mid-major conferences is improving every year, and having already taken out on Power 5 conference bubble team in NC State on this NIT run, the Bison get their first Division I basketball championship in school history on Thursday night.

**Udog** · 04-04-2019, 10:09 AM

**Udog** · 04-04-2019, 10:15 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, April 4

Green Bay @ Marshall

Game 733-734
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
53.099
Marshall
61.256
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 8
175
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 5 1/2
167
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(-5 1/2); Over

Lipscomb @ Texas

Game 727-728
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Lipscomb
67.988
Texas
66.532
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Lipscomb
by 1 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
by 1
143
Dunkel Pick:
Lipscomb
(+1); Over

727Lipscomb -728 Texas
LIPSCOMB is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game in the current season.

727Lipscomb -728 Texas
TEXAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite in the current season.

727Lipscomb -728 Texas
LIPSCOMB is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins in the current season.

733Wi Green Bay -734 Marshall
MARSHALL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games in the current season.

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 4

Green Bay scored 91.8 ppg in winning first four games in this event; Phoenix is experience team #105 that plays tempo #12- they’re 8-7 outside Horizon (NC sked #10). Green Bay lost three of its last four road games. Green Bay won in OT Tuesday; they used three starters 31:00+ that game, with Cohen playing 43:00. Phoenix starts three juniors and a senior. Marshall won nine of its last ten games, winning last six home games; Thundering Herd is 10-6 outside C-USA; they play 5th-fastest tempo in country, are experience team #143 (#26 in MC). Marshall outscored Hampton 11-6 over last 4:25 to edge Pirates 80-78 Tuesday; only two guys played more than 28:00.

NIT, New York City
Lipscomb is #48 experience team whose eFG% is #48 in country; they start three seniors, two juniors. Bisons won at TCU this year, lost by 4 at Louisville; they beat NC State 94-93 in Raleigh LW, beat Wichita here Tuesday, so they won’t be awed- this is probably the biggest game in school history. Texas is experience team #280 that plays tempo #322; Longhorns allowed 55-44 points in winning their last two games. Texas starts a freshman and three sophs; they don’t defend the arc that well (35.5%, #244). Lipscomb shoots 37.7% on arc (#36).

NCAAB

Thursday, April 4

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Trend Report
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Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin-Green Bay's last 5 games
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin-Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Marshall is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Marshall is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Marshall's last 7 games

Texas Longhorns
Texas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games

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Announcement

Thursday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/4

Thursday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 4/4

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