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Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, March 24
Virginia was down 14 in first half Friday, cut it to 6 by half, won going away; Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games- they played four starters 36:00 Friday. Starting C Salt tweaked an ankle Friday, but says he’ll play here. Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games overall, are experience team #203 that plays slowest tempo in country. Cavaliers have #5 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma is 5-8 in its last 13 games; they raced out to 12-0 lead vs Ole Miss Friday, jogged to an easy win. Sooners played nine guys 10:00+ Friday; they’re experience team #45. Oklahoma beat Notre Dame by 5 in December, its only ACC game this season. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.
Duke was only up 4 at half over North Dakota State Friday, then ran away in 2nd half; they used three guys 30:00+. Blue Devils covered four of their last five second round games. Duke is 13-1 outside ACC, with only loss to Gonzaga at Maui Classic. Blue Devils are shooting only 30.5% on arc; how will they attack 7-6 center Fall? UCF played three guys 35:00+ in surprisingly easy win over VCU Friday; Knights didn’t score for first 6:35, then made 10 shots in row after that. UCF is experience team #21 that plays slow (#309) tempo- they’ve won 11 of 13 games outside AAC. Knights are #20 experience team that has #13 defensive eFG%. UCF coach Dawkins played/coached at Duke.
Iowa fell behind Cincinnati 18-5 Friday, then scored 48 points in 2nd half of its 79-72 win. Hawkeyes are just 3-6 in their last nine games; they played three guys 32:00+ Friday, but made 11-22 on arc and shot 58% inside arc. Iowa is 12-0 outside Big 14, but against NC schedule #330. Iowa gets 22.6% of its points on foul line (#18). Tennessee is just 7-4 in its last 11 games after starting season 23-1; Vols are experience team #53 (#3 in MC); that shoots 55.7% inside arc- their eFG% is #21 on offense, #39 on defense. Tennessee was down a hoop to Colgate with 10:52 left Friday, won by 7. Red Raiders made made 15-29 on arc. Since 2011, #10-seeds who win their first round game are 9-1 vs spread in 2nd round.
North Carolina was down 38-33 at half to Iona Friday; is that a red flag? UNC won nine of its last ten games; they start three seniors and play #5 pace. Carolina played three starters 31:00+ in Friday’s win. Tar Heels split their last six 2nd round games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight. UNC is 2-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year, beating Stanford by 18, UCLA by 16. Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 22-5; Huskies are experience team #43 (#1 in MC) that forces turnovers 24.3% of time- they spanked Utah State Friday, forcing 21 turnovers (+6) and making 10-17 on arc- they played three guys 30:00+. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.
Texas Tech won 10 of its last 11 games; Red Raiders are #105 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time, and has #2 defensive eFG% in country. Tech played four starters 31:00+ in Friday’s 72-57 win over Northern Kentucky- they led by 4 at half. Red Raiders are 13-1 outside Big X, but vs NC schedule #320. Buffalo whacked their old coach when they beat Arizona State by 17 Friday; Bulls scored 1.23 ppp vs ASU- they won their last 13 games, are 13-1 outside MAC (#116 NC sked), with only loss to Marquette. Bulls won in OT at West Virginia in their only Big X game. Buffalo is experience team #14 that is 6-1 vs top 100 teams this season. Since 2010, when #3-6 seeds play in second round, teams are both 6-6 vs spread.
Ohio State lost seven of its last 11 games; they’re experience team #252 that started season 12-1, mainly because they played #245 non-conference schedule. Buckeyes played two guys 39/40:00 in Friday’s 62-59 win over Iowa State. OSU opened season with win over Cincinnati of AAC. Houston is 32-3 after losing AAC title game last week; Cougars are experience team #145 that has best defensive eFG% in country. Houston waxed Georgia St by 29 Friday; only one of their guys played more than 28:00. Cougars are experience team #145 ; they’re 12-3 vs top 100 teams this season. Of last 11 #11-seeds who won first round game, six of them covered in 2nd round- only team that didn’t cover was favored.
This will be 13th 2nd round game with 13-seed vs 12-seed. Favorite was 9-3 vs spread in first 12. Cal-Irvine won its last 16 games; they’re experience team #44 that plays pace #296- they start three juniors, two seniors. Anteaters are 3-3 vs top 100 teams; Friday was their first-ever NCAA tourney win. Irvine played eight guys 11:00+ Friday; no one played more than 31:00. Oregon won its last nine games after being 15-12 at one point this season; they held five of their last six opponents under 55 points. Oregon’s defensive eFG% is #21 in country; they held eight of last nine opponents to 61 or fewer points. Ducks are #304 experience team whose best player hasn’t played since Dec 12.
Last five years, when a #4-seed plays a #12-seed in this round, favorite is 5-1 vs spread. Virginia Tech’s star PG Robinson played 28:00 in Friday’s win over Saint Louis; he looked gimpy at end of game. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games after starting season 16-3; they’re shooting 39.4% on arc this season (#9). Tech played two guys 36:00 in Friday’s win; they forced 18 turnovers and outscored VCU 22-10 on foul line. Liberty beat UCLA by 15, Georgia State by 26; they lost by 10 at Georgetown. Flames won 19 of their last 21 games; they’re experience team #122 (#30 in MC) that makes 56.7% of its 2’s, has #12 eFG% in country. Liberty made 12-25 on arc in its upset of Miss State Friday, playing three guys 33:00+; they also made 12-25 on arc.
Sunday’s other tournament games
Wichita State is only 8-5 outside AAC; they won 76-70 at Furman Wednesday, with 43-26 edge on boards. Shockers won 12 of their last 15 games; they’re experience team #274 that shoots 31% on arc (#324). Clemson won five of its last seven games; they’re 11-3 outside the ACC, are experience team #31 that starts three seniors, two sophs. Tigers are 2-7 this season in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Harvard lost by 20 in Chapel Hill in January, their only ACC game; Crimson won 13 of its last 17 games- they won by 3 at Georgetown Wednesday, after losing Ivy title game to arch-rival Yale on Sunday. Harvard is experience team that turns ball over 22.5% of time (#334). NC State forces turnovers 21.7% of time (#27); they’re 7-4 in last 11 games, 13-2 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Wolfpack is experience team #157; they beat Hofstra by six on Tuesday.
Xavier won eight of its last ten games; they’re experience team #120 that is 9-5 outside Big East- they beat Toledo by 14 Tuesday. Musketeers plays slow (#308) pace; they’re 1-7 vs teams ranked in top 50. Texas lost five of its last seven games; they held South Dakota State off 79-73 in last game, after blowing an early 19-0 lead. Longhorns start a freshman, three sophomores; they lost by 6 at home to Providence, in their one Big East game.
Nebraska won four of its last five games, beating Butler by 4 in last game; they lost to Wisconsin by 4 in Big 14 tourney. Huskers are 11-1 outside Big 14, vs NC seed #165. Nebraska played only six guys Wednesday; three of them played the whole 40:00. TCU won three of its last four games; Horned Frogs are 12-1 outside the Big X, vs NC schedule #185. TCU lost four of its last six home games.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, March 24
Virginia was down 14 in first half Friday, cut it to 6 by half, won going away; Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games- they played four starters 36:00 Friday. Starting C Salt tweaked an ankle Friday, but says he’ll play here. Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games overall, are experience team #203 that plays slowest tempo in country. Cavaliers have #5 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma is 5-8 in its last 13 games; they raced out to 12-0 lead vs Ole Miss Friday, jogged to an easy win. Sooners played nine guys 10:00+ Friday; they’re experience team #45. Oklahoma beat Notre Dame by 5 in December, its only ACC game this season. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.
Duke was only up 4 at half over North Dakota State Friday, then ran away in 2nd half; they used three guys 30:00+. Blue Devils covered four of their last five second round games. Duke is 13-1 outside ACC, with only loss to Gonzaga at Maui Classic. Blue Devils are shooting only 30.5% on arc; how will they attack 7-6 center Fall? UCF played three guys 35:00+ in surprisingly easy win over VCU Friday; Knights didn’t score for first 6:35, then made 10 shots in row after that. UCF is experience team #21 that plays slow (#309) tempo- they’ve won 11 of 13 games outside AAC. Knights are #20 experience team that has #13 defensive eFG%. UCF coach Dawkins played/coached at Duke.
Iowa fell behind Cincinnati 18-5 Friday, then scored 48 points in 2nd half of its 79-72 win. Hawkeyes are just 3-6 in their last nine games; they played three guys 32:00+ Friday, but made 11-22 on arc and shot 58% inside arc. Iowa is 12-0 outside Big 14, but against NC schedule #330. Iowa gets 22.6% of its points on foul line (#18). Tennessee is just 7-4 in its last 11 games after starting season 23-1; Vols are experience team #53 (#3 in MC); that shoots 55.7% inside arc- their eFG% is #21 on offense, #39 on defense. Tennessee was down a hoop to Colgate with 10:52 left Friday, won by 7. Red Raiders made made 15-29 on arc. Since 2011, #10-seeds who win their first round game are 9-1 vs spread in 2nd round.
North Carolina was down 38-33 at half to Iona Friday; is that a red flag? UNC won nine of its last ten games; they start three seniors and play #5 pace. Carolina played three starters 31:00+ in Friday’s win. Tar Heels split their last six 2nd round games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight. UNC is 2-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year, beating Stanford by 18, UCLA by 16. Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 22-5; Huskies are experience team #43 (#1 in MC) that forces turnovers 24.3% of time- they spanked Utah State Friday, forcing 21 turnovers (+6) and making 10-17 on arc- they played three guys 30:00+. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.
Texas Tech won 10 of its last 11 games; Red Raiders are #105 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time, and has #2 defensive eFG% in country. Tech played four starters 31:00+ in Friday’s 72-57 win over Northern Kentucky- they led by 4 at half. Red Raiders are 13-1 outside Big X, but vs NC schedule #320. Buffalo whacked their old coach when they beat Arizona State by 17 Friday; Bulls scored 1.23 ppp vs ASU- they won their last 13 games, are 13-1 outside MAC (#116 NC sked), with only loss to Marquette. Bulls won in OT at West Virginia in their only Big X game. Buffalo is experience team #14 that is 6-1 vs top 100 teams this season. Since 2010, when #3-6 seeds play in second round, teams are both 6-6 vs spread.
Ohio State lost seven of its last 11 games; they’re experience team #252 that started season 12-1, mainly because they played #245 non-conference schedule. Buckeyes played two guys 39/40:00 in Friday’s 62-59 win over Iowa State. OSU opened season with win over Cincinnati of AAC. Houston is 32-3 after losing AAC title game last week; Cougars are experience team #145 that has best defensive eFG% in country. Houston waxed Georgia St by 29 Friday; only one of their guys played more than 28:00. Cougars are experience team #145 ; they’re 12-3 vs top 100 teams this season. Of last 11 #11-seeds who won first round game, six of them covered in 2nd round- only team that didn’t cover was favored.
This will be 13th 2nd round game with 13-seed vs 12-seed. Favorite was 9-3 vs spread in first 12. Cal-Irvine won its last 16 games; they’re experience team #44 that plays pace #296- they start three juniors, two seniors. Anteaters are 3-3 vs top 100 teams; Friday was their first-ever NCAA tourney win. Irvine played eight guys 11:00+ Friday; no one played more than 31:00. Oregon won its last nine games after being 15-12 at one point this season; they held five of their last six opponents under 55 points. Oregon’s defensive eFG% is #21 in country; they held eight of last nine opponents to 61 or fewer points. Ducks are #304 experience team whose best player hasn’t played since Dec 12.
Last five years, when a #4-seed plays a #12-seed in this round, favorite is 5-1 vs spread. Virginia Tech’s star PG Robinson played 28:00 in Friday’s win over Saint Louis; he looked gimpy at end of game. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games after starting season 16-3; they’re shooting 39.4% on arc this season (#9). Tech played two guys 36:00 in Friday’s win; they forced 18 turnovers and outscored VCU 22-10 on foul line. Liberty beat UCLA by 15, Georgia State by 26; they lost by 10 at Georgetown. Flames won 19 of their last 21 games; they’re experience team #122 (#30 in MC) that makes 56.7% of its 2’s, has #12 eFG% in country. Liberty made 12-25 on arc in its upset of Miss State Friday, playing three guys 33:00+; they also made 12-25 on arc.
Sunday’s other tournament games
Wichita State is only 8-5 outside AAC; they won 76-70 at Furman Wednesday, with 43-26 edge on boards. Shockers won 12 of their last 15 games; they’re experience team #274 that shoots 31% on arc (#324). Clemson won five of its last seven games; they’re 11-3 outside the ACC, are experience team #31 that starts three seniors, two sophs. Tigers are 2-7 this season in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Harvard lost by 20 in Chapel Hill in January, their only ACC game; Crimson won 13 of its last 17 games- they won by 3 at Georgetown Wednesday, after losing Ivy title game to arch-rival Yale on Sunday. Harvard is experience team that turns ball over 22.5% of time (#334). NC State forces turnovers 21.7% of time (#27); they’re 7-4 in last 11 games, 13-2 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Wolfpack is experience team #157; they beat Hofstra by six on Tuesday.
Xavier won eight of its last ten games; they’re experience team #120 that is 9-5 outside Big East- they beat Toledo by 14 Tuesday. Musketeers plays slow (#308) pace; they’re 1-7 vs teams ranked in top 50. Texas lost five of its last seven games; they held South Dakota State off 79-73 in last game, after blowing an early 19-0 lead. Longhorns start a freshman, three sophomores; they lost by 6 at home to Providence, in their one Big East game.
Nebraska won four of its last five games, beating Butler by 4 in last game; they lost to Wisconsin by 4 in Big 14 tourney. Huskers are 11-1 outside Big 14, vs NC seed #165. Nebraska played only six guys Wednesday; three of them played the whole 40:00. TCU won three of its last four games; Horned Frogs are 12-1 outside the Big X, vs NC schedule #185. TCU lost four of its last six home games.
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