Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/13

[Udog]

Big Ten tournament Round 1 odds, predictions and NCAA basketball best bets

The Big Ten is considered one of the deepest conferences in college basketball and bettors will get a chance to wager on some of the dark horse teams as the first round of the Big Ten Tournament tips off Wednesday at the United Center in Chicago. We bring you the must-read betting notes to help you beat the odds for the opening round of NCAA Big Ten action.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Odds: Nebraska -1.5, 137
Start Time: 6:30 p.m ET, United Center, Chicago
Season Series: 1-0 (Rutgers), 1-0 ATS (Rutgers), 1-0 O/U

In the only matchup between these teams so far this season, Rutgers was an 8.5-point underdog at home. They responded with a seven-point upset win. Rutgers is 6-1-1 straight up and ATS in their last eight games while the Huskers are 3-11 ATS in their previous 14 contests.

Nebraska lost against the Scarlet Knights despite having their second leading scorer, Isaac Copeland Jr. in the lineup. Copeland suffered a season-ending knee injury in Nebraska's next game and the Huskers have won only three of 13 games in his absence - and one of those wins came in overtime while another came by just a single point.

We're taking Rutgers to pull off the upset again.

Northwestern Wildcats vs Illinois Fighting Illini

Odds: Illinois -1.5, 136.5 at BetAmerica
Start Time: 9:00 p.m ET, United Center, Chicago
Season Series: 1-1, 2-0 ATS (Illinois), 1-1 O/U

Northwestern and Illinois split the season series although Illinois covered both games. Northwestern lost nine of their last ten games to finish the regular season, while Illinois lost four of their previous five (with that lone win coming against the Wildcat).

This could be an ugly game, especially if you like offense. The Wildcats rank outside the top-300 of the country in shooting with a goddawful 40.5 percent, while the Illini aren't much better ranking 265th at a 42.8 percent clip.

The Wildcats also have a tough defense, holding opponents to 41.9 percent shooting from the field and just 29.2 percent from behind the 3-point line. When you combine that with the fact that they are towards the bottom of the country in pace and you have all the ingredients for a low-scoring game.

The Under has hit in five of the last six games between these two teams and we think it will cash again tonight.

[Udog]

Big 12 tournament Round 1 odds, predictions and NCAA basketball best bets
Patrick Everson

Oklahoma was a top-10 spread-covering outfit in the regular season, going 19-9-3 ATS. Meanwhile, West Virginia was a dismal 346th among 353 Division I teams, with a 10-20-1 ATS record.

The Big 12 tournament returns to the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., and Wednesday’s first round is a battle of the lesser lights – the bottom four seeds in the 10-team conference that still calls itself the Big 12. We have your must-read betting notes for both games.

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS VS. TEXAS CHRISTIAN HORNED FROGS

Odds: TCU -3.5, 137.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Start Time: 7 p.m. ET, Sprint Center, Kansas City, Mo.
Season Series: 1-1, OKST 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U

The falloff in the regular-season standings was precipitous in this conference, to say the least. Texas Christian (19-12 SU, 15-16 ATS) is the No. 8 seed, while Oklahoma State (12-19 SU, 13-18 ATS) is No. 9 heading. But a case could very well be made to bet on the bad team in this spot.

The Cowboys may have only covered 13 times all season, but five of those cashouts came in their last six games, including the final four of the regular season. And they won the last two games on the scoreboard, too – a road upset of No. 4 seed Baylor and a home win over league-worst West Virginia.

On the flip side, the Horned Frogs skidded to the regular-season finish line, going 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. That stretch included a 68-61 loss at Oklahoma State as 1-point favorites, as TCU failed to cash in either meeting with the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys are definitely worth a look against the number in this matchup.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS VS. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Odds: Oklahoma -6.5, 145.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Start Time: 9 p.m. ET, Sprint Center, Kansas City, Mo.
Season Series: 1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U

What happened to Bob Huggins and West Virginia? The Mountaineers had nine NCAA Tournament appearances over his first 11 years, but at 12-19 SU this year will miss the Big Dance, barring an incredibly unlikely run.

As is often said in the movie Airplane, though, that’s not important right now. What is important is covering the spread. And unfortunately, the 10th-seeded Mountaineers are even worse in that department, rating an abysmal 346th among the 353 Division I teams, at 10-20-1 ATS.

Almost exactly on the flip side is their opponent tonight. No. 7 Oklahoma (19-12 SU) is an outstanding 19-9-3 ATS, the ninth-best spread-covering mark in the nation. Consider riding the Sooner schooner ATS in this contest.

[Udog]

SEC tournament Round 1 odds, predictions and best NCAA basketball bets
Andrew Caley

The SEC tournament tips off Wednesday in Nashville with a pair of First Round matchups. All four of these teams will need nothing short of a miracle run if they want to go dancing once the Madness begins. We bring you the must-read betting notes to help you crack the odds for the opening round of the SEC tournament.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Missouri Tigers

Odds: Mizzu -3.5, 129.5 O/U @ Points Bet
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Season Series: MIZZU 1-0 SU/ATS, 0-1 O/U

No. 12 seed Missouri faces off against No. 13 Georgia in the opening game of the SEC tournament, in a matchup of teams who struggled mightily in conference play this season.

Talk about an ugly end to the season. The Bulldogs lost 11 of their last 12 games this season and scored 85 points combined in their final two contests. 85. That includes a 25-point beat down at home to Wednesday’s opponent, Missouri, in which they scored just 39 points. A big reason for the decline in scoring for the Bulldogs has been the loss of second-leading scorer Rayshaun Hammonds, who went down in Georgia’s third to last game of the season with a foot injury.

Missouri on the other hand, wasn’t much better down the stretch, dropping seven of its last 10 games. Senior guard Jordan Geist leads Missouri in scoring at 14 points per game and minutes played at 33.5 per contest, but its the play of the underclassman that has given Mizzu some hope about the future. Freshman guard Torrence Watson owns the school freshman 3-point record with 47, and in his past three games is averaging 17 points per game on 46.2 percent shooting from long range. As a result, the normally stagnant Tigers offense has gone up from an SEC worst 66.9 points per game to 70.

And with a matchup against a Georgia defense that allows an SEC worst 74 points per game, the Tigers should be able to do enough damage to send this Over their low team total of 66.5.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Texas A&M Aggies

Odds: Texas A&M -3.5, 133.5 O/U at Points Bet
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Season Series: TAM 1-0 SU/ATS, 0-1 O/U

The First Round of the SEC tournament is capped with a matchup between No. 11 seed Texas A&M and No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Commodores are looking for their first conference win of the season but will be in tough against an Aggies team that could be the one squad out of these first four teams that could make a little run.

The Aggies lost eight of their first nine SEC games before rattling off five wins in seven games, including a 64-57 home victory as 6.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt on March 2. They also notched an impressive win over No. 14 ranked Kansas State.

Meanwhile Vanderbilt, one of the youngest teams in the nation, went 0-18 in SEC play this season and just 6-12 ATS in those games. Vandy also won just one game away from home all season and there are only 14 teams in the country that scored fewer than the Commodores 60.2 points per game. Texas A&M on the other hand, scored more points on the road 71.9 per contest compared to 70.3 at home.

The Aggies have some weaknesses, but Vandy just isn’t the style of team that can take advantage of them. The Commodores are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country and won’t be able to hit enough shots against a stout A&M defense. Lay the points with the favorite here.

[Udog]

Big East tournament Round 1 odds, predictions and NCAA basketball best bets

The Big East Tournament begins Wednesday at Madison Square Garden, with both Butler and St. John's looking for revenge against conference foes that swept them during their regular season series. We bring you the must-read betting notes to help you beat the odds for the first round of NCAA Big East action.

Butler Bulldogs vs Providence Friars

Odds: Butler -1, 135.5 at BetAmerica
Start Time: 7:00 p.m ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Season Series: 2-0 (Providence), 2-0 ATS (Providence), 2-0 O/U

These two squads faced off just last weekend, with Providence winning 83-70 at home on the strength of a huge 48-point first half performance. Providence also won the first game of the regular season matchup, a contest in late February that went into overtime.

The Bulldogs are 5-1-1 to the Over in their last seven games (all against Big East competition). While the Friars are 5-2 to the Over in their previous seven, also all versus conference foes. The O/U was set at 135 for both games between these two teams this year, and both times the Over cashed although it took overtime for the first Over to hit.

Providence shared the ball much better than Butler in the head-to-head series with a 14-7 edge in assists the first time they played and a 18-7 edge last Saturday. We're leaning towards the Friars using that ball movement to find holes in the Bulldogs defense and once again put up major points in the first half. Take the Over on their 1H team total.

DePaul Blue Demons vs St. John's Red Storm

Odds: St. John's -5.5, 154 at BetAmerica
Start Time: 9:30 p.m ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Season Series: 2-0 (DePaul), 2-0 ATS (DePaul), 1-1 O/U

Marquette and Villanova have been the best teams in the conference all season, yet the Red Storm beat the Golden Eagles twice (including a 20-point rout on New Year's Day), and split the season series with 'Nova. DePaul lost all four of their games against Marquette and Villanova with an average scoring margin of -11.5.

Combine that with the fact that St. John's had five more wins in the regular season than DePaul and this supposedly neutral site in New York is more or less a home game for the Red Storm, you might assume that they are an easy cover as 5.5-point faves, don't be so sure.

DePaul beat St. Johns by eight points the first time they played against them, and then beat them by nine points in the rematch just last week. Teams that slow the pace down and pound the ball inside have given the Red Storm problems all season, and the Blue Demons do both very efficiently.

DePaul is 21st in the country with a rebounding percentage of 54 while St. John's sits outside of the top-300 by grabbing just 46 percent of available rebounds. In the two games in the regular season series between these teams, DePaul had a rebounding edge of 80-59. If DePaul bullies St. John's down low again they should have no problem keeping this close, if not outright winning. Back DePaul and the 5.5 points.

[Udog]

AAC tournament Round 1 odds, predictions and NCAA basketball best bets
Jason Logan

Four games are on the NCAA basketball betting board for the American Athletic Conference tournament, with the first round tipping off from the FedEx Forum in Memphis Tennessee Thursday. We size up these Round 1 matchups, the AAC betting odds and best bets for the tournament openers.

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES VS SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

Odds: UConn -1, 133 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Start time: 1 p.m. ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis
Season Series: 1-1 SU, USF 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Heading into Thursday’s tournament opener between No. 8 South Florida and No. 9 UConn, the Huskies are holding out hope that standout guard Alterique Gilbert is able to play. Gilbert, who averages almost 13 points per game, missed the season finale with an eye injury and concussion. Connecticut did return backcourt mate Jalen Adams in the finale but hasn’t had this duo healthy together since February 6 – which coincided with the start of a 2-7 SU slump (5-4 ATS) from the Huskies to end the year.

The Bulls could also be without a key contributor and AAC Defensive Player of the Year Laquincy Rideau, who sat the final two games of the regular season with a foot injury. Rideau is not only a solid stopper but scores 13 points and adds 5.5 assists per game.

With scoring power either missing or slowed by injury on both sides, the Under 133 in this AAC Championship opener holds value. Keep a close eye on their status and get the early Over/Under before sharps have their say.

TULANE GREEN WAVE VS MEMPHIS TIGERS

Odds: Memphis -16.5, 154 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Start Time: 3 p.m. ET FedEx Forum, Memphis
Season Series: MEM 2-0, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U

No. 5 Memphis will have the home-court edge over its opponents in the AAC tournament, and boy will it need it. After missing out on a first-round bye, the Tigers must win four straight games from Thursday to Sunday. That’s not to say this Memphis squad can’t run the table, but it will be an uphill climb.

With that in mind, the Tigers will want to come out strong in their opening-round matchup with No. 12 Tulane. Memphis is one of the most-skilled scoring teams in the country, putting up more than 81 points per game, and does the bulk of that damage in the second half. However, brace for an aggressive game plan right out of the gate in order to build a lead and offer the luxury to rest starters down the stretch.

Penny's guys hung almost 41 points per first half on the scoreboard inside the FedEx Forum this season and that makes Over on Memphis’ first-half team total an enticing play, even more so with the Green Wave ranked 313th in first-half points against in the country.

SMU MUSTANGS VS TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANES

Odds: SMU -1.5, 140.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Start Time: 8 p.m. ET FedEx Forum, Memphis
Season Series: SMU 1-0 SU, SMU 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U

It’s been a long and trying season for No. 10 Southern Methodist and head coach Tim Jankovich. Not only have the Mustangs been playing from behind since the beginning, due to NCAA sanctions, but injuries have thinned out the SMU roster.

The Mustangs closed the regular season on a positive note, knocking off South Florida despite really having just five healthy bodies. They played a near perfect game, shooting 58 percent from the field and limiting USF to just 35 percent from the floor, and snapped a four-game losing skid for just their second victory since January 30.

That season-ending road win is as good as it’s going to get for SMU, which will show the wear on its tires in a letdown spot in the AAC opener versus No. 7 Tulsa Thursday. Take the points with the Golden Hurricanes +1.5.

EAST CAROLINA PIRATES VS WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS

Odds: WSU -10.5, 139 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Start Time: 10 p.m. ET FedEx Forum, Memphis
Season Series: WSU 2-0 SU, WSU 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U

Remember when Wichita State opened the AAC schedule 1-6? Since that season-starting slide, the No. 6 seed Shockers are one of the hottest teams in college hoops, closing the 2019 campaign with a 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record in their final 11 games.

East Carolina was a victim to that red-hot run, losing 72-55 at WSU on March 5. The Pirates not only lost the game (and their shirts as 14-point underdogs) but also star forward Seth LeDay, who tore his ACL. East Carolina could also be down 6-foot-9 forward Rico Quinton, who sat out the season finale with injury. That left ECU with one available player standing above 6-foot-8.

Wichita State is a big physical team that hits the offensive glass hard, pulling down 10.2 offensive boards per outing and creating additional scoring chances. Those extra buckets will help Shockers bettors get over the -10.5 hump against Thursday’s pointspread.