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  • Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 2/5

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, February 5

    Good Luck on day # 36 of 2019!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    Matchup Links

    NCAAB SAGARIN RATINGS

    NCAAB Matchups

    NCAAB Hot and Not

    NCAAB Database


    SPORTS MATCHUPS

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • #2
    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    — Louisville 72, Virginia Tech 64— Hokies are hurting without senior G Robinson.

    — Montana State 69, Northern Colorado 66— Upset in the Big Sky Conference.

    — Penn State 59, Northwestern 52— Nittany Lions finally win a conference game.

    — Texas Tech 81, West Virginia 50— It is 1,467 miles from Morgantown to Lubbock; long way to go to get your butts kicked. Why is West Virginia in this league?

    — Baseball happenings: Francisco Liriano signed with the Pirates, and Jerry Blevins signed with the A’s.

    — Iowa State 75, Oklahoma 74— Sooners hit a 3 to cover, but it was after the horn and was not reviewed. Very bad beat for Cyclone backers.


    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

    13) Jeremiah Martin is a 6-3 senior at Memphis; he was scoreless in the first half Saturday at South Florida, when the Tigers fell behind USF 27-1; it was 38-13 at halftime.

    Then Martin scored 41 points in the second half. By himself.

    Martin made 7-9 on arc as Memphis made a run but fell short, losing 84-78 to the Bulls.

    12) Oakland Raiders will play next season at the SF Giants’ baseball park, before moving to Las Vegas in 2020. Two new NFL stadiums in ’20, Las Vegas and Los Angeles.

    11) Deondre Francois was dismissed from the Florida State football team on Sunday by coach Willie Taggart one day after a video was posted to Instagram by a woman — believed to be Francois’ girlfriend — where you could hear (but not see) a man making threats and admitting to various forms of physical and mental abuse.

    Francois is a pretty good QB; schools will be interested in him, despite all that.

    10) A new football league kicks off this Saturday, the AAF, with 8 teams playing a 10-game schedule. Most of the head coaches are well-known names, but coach of the Atlanta team is a guy named Kevin Coyle, a 63-year old football lifer. Here is his coaching resume:

    — 1978-79: U of Cincinnati, grad assistant
    — 1980: Arkansas, coaching assistant
    — 1981: Merchant Marine Academy, defensive coordinator
    — 1982-5: Holy Cross, assistant coach
    — 1986-90: Holy Cross, defensive coordinator
    — 1991-93: Syracuse, defensive coordinator
    — 1994-96: Maryland, defensive coordinator
    — 1997-2000: Fresno State, defensive coordinator
    — 2001-02: Cincinnati Bengals, cornerbacks’ coach
    — 2003-11: Cincinnati Bengals, defensive backs’ coach
    — 2012-15: Miami Dolphins, defensive coordinator
    — 2016-17: Cincinnati Bengals, defensive backs’ coach
    — 2018: LSU, defensive analyst

    Quite a career.

    9) All the AAF games will be televised this season, either on NFL Network, CBS Sports Network, Turner Sports or B-R Live (I’m not really sure what that is).

    8) Bill Walton told a great story on TV Saturday about way back in the mid-60’s, when freshmen were ineligible to play college basketball, so they had freshman teams.

    UCLA’s varsity had won the national title the year before, but now they had a freshman named Lew Alcindor; the freshman team beat the defending national champs by 20 in a preseason exhibition game. UCLA’s fans were stunned.

    After the game in the locker room, coach John Wooden looked at his current varsity and said, “Looks like we’ll have a pretty good team next year.”

    Bruins didn’t win that year (Texas Western did), but then they won the next seven national titles.

    7) Bob Valvano brought up an interesting point Sunday night; Super Bowl commercials aren’t funny anymore, because advertisers are terrified of offending someone in our more politically correct world. To be funny is to be edgy, but if you’re edgy SOMEONE will get offended, and then you lose that someone’s business. No one wants to lose business.

    Our society, to a large extent, has lost its sense of humor. Or, to paraphrase what Michael Jordan once said, “(Fill in demographic) buy sneakers, too.”

    6) Big East is a two-horse race this year:

    Villanova is 9-0, Marquette is 8-1 in conference games.

    No one else in the Big East is at .500 in conference; St John’s, Creighton, Georgetown are all 4-5 in league games. Butler, Seton Hall and DePaul are 4-6. Providence is 3-6, Xavier 3-7.

    Any game between teams in the bottom 8 is interesting; Marquette has more skilled shooters than anyone else. Villanova seems to be improving a lot as the season goes on.

    5) We have a minor league baseball team here in the Albany area, the Tri-City Valley Cats, who play games at Hudson Valley CC in a nice ballpark. Valley Cats’ manager this year will be Ozney Guillen, son of the former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen.

    Valley Cats are a Class A affiliate of the Astros, playing in the NY-Penn League.

    4) Wednesday of this week is National Signing Day for college football, then Thursday is the NBA trade deadline, so there will be lot of news this week made off the field/court.

    3) Nevada sportsbooks won $10,780,319 off of $145,939,025 worth of bets on the Super Bowl

    New Jersey sportsbooks lost $4.5M statewide on the Super Bowl off of $34.8M wagered

    2) Last year’s Final Four was the first one since 2005 where all three favorites covered the three Final Four games.

    1) So I go to the **** for lunch the other day, looking forward to some pizza and a Coke; I get there, and the freakin’ pizza place is boarded up, closed. How does a **** not have a pizza place?

    No bueno.

    Comment


    • #3
      Hot & Not Report

      Week of February 4th

      The left coast has some highly entertaining college basketball games going on in multiple conferences, and this week's piece is dedicated to that. There are some betting angles that we should be able to take advantage of later on this week in both Pac-12 and Big West action, so pack your bags and get on the highway, cause road teams are the focus here.

      Who's Hot

      Fading Pac-12 “weekend” road teams (not named Washington) straight up when playing two road games in the span of 3/4 days


      One of the most interesting things about Pac-12 basketball betting is how the conference schedules groups of teams to play consecutive games on the road in a week, spanning from Wednesday to Sunday. Scheduling games that way means that every program has to deal with a second consecutive road game either 48 or 72 hours after a first game in hostile territory, and essentially that's what creates plenty of parity within the conference. Winning on the road is extremely tough for any college basketball program across the nation, but give schools consecutive road games to deal with in such a short span every other week, and the results are rather predictable.

      Simply put, each of the conference's 12 teams have already had two separate occasions where they've had to play two straight on the road in short order (i.e. two games from a Wednesday to Sunday, Thursday/Sat etc). That's 24 happenings overall throughout the conference, and of those 24 occurrences, the road team has only swept the weekend road trip five times. Eliminate the perfect Washington Huskies from that equation, and Pac-12 road teams have only swept their weekend series three out of 22 tries.

      Conversely, these road teams have been swept (lost both games SU) on their weekend road trip nine times during those 24 opportunities, with Washington State an California going a perfect 0-4 SU in their two chances respectively.

      Three teams – Arizona State, UCLA, and Oregon – have established the same pattern in both of their weekend road trips, winning SU in the first game, and following that up with a loss in the 2nd game on the Saturday/Sunday. Utah is the only other school that's followed that pattern at least once as well, while USC, Stanford, and Colorado have each had one occurrence where they've lost the weekday road game and managed to bounce back with a SU win over the weekend.

      Now chances are we see 1st place Washington fall victim to this tough scheduling scenario sooner than later, and this weekend they've got trips to Arizona, and Arizona State on Thursday and Saturday respectively. This might be the week to look at adding a wager against the Washington Huskies in there, but there are five other teams in that same boat this week as well.

      Those teams are Washington State (at Arizona State, at Arizona), California (at Oregon, at Oregon State), Colorado (at UCLA, at USC), Stanford (at Oregon State, at Oregon), and Utah (at USC, at UCLA). Those five programs currently reside in five of the last six spots in the Pac-12 standings, so fading them outright on the ML may be quite chalky, but this is a trend that probably won't go away for the entire league for the rest of conference play this season.

      So if any one of these five teams – and even Washington this week – win outright in that first road game on Wed/Thursday, you'd better be prepared to look the other way in their second game on the weekend. That's because recent history suggests that these Pac-12 programs rarely return home after a perfect weekend road trip, and if you don't believe they've got a shot at an outright win, backing them ATS can be difficult to stomach.

      Who's Not

      Fading road teams in “mainland USA” games in Big West Conference play – 10-17 ATS


      Home court/field advantage arguably means more in college basketball than any other major sport in this country, and yet, if you're a basketball team in the Big West this year that isn't Hawaii, you aren't covering too many spreads at home in conference play. Hawaii's got a 4-1 ATS mark at home in Big West play so far, but all the other eight teams in the Big West Conference enter this week with a combined 10-17 ATS home record.

      Looking at the overall standings in the Big West, it's become clear that UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara are the class of the conference at 19-5 and 16-5 SU respectively, but in conference home games, those two programs are a combined 1-5 ATS so far. Throw 3rd place Cal State Fullerton into the mix, and the top three teams in this conference are sitting on a 2-8 ATS mark at home against their rivals this year.

      The poor home ATS numbers for those teams are likely more to do with some chalky spreads attached to their name that they can't quite cover, as those three are a combined 7-3 SU at home in Big West play. Going forward, it will be interesting to see if the point spreads start to get shaded down a notch and the results start to flip.

      I say that because with more than half of the conference (5 of 9 teams) having just a single SU road win on the entire season, road teams covering spreads in conference play at a 63% clip is quite astonishing. Those five teams with a single SU road win this year – Hawaii, UC Davis, Long Beach State, UC Riverside, and Cal Poly Slo – are a combined 9-6 ATS in mainland conference road games, once again proving that the point spread is still the great equalizer in this business.

      So if you are looking at Big West games later in the week – starting on Wednesday - have an eye to backing home teams.

      Comment


      • #4
        NCAAB
        Long Sheet

        Tuesday, February 5


        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        ST JOSEPHS (10 - 12) at LASALLE (6 - 14) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ST JOSEPHS is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) in all games this season.
        ST JOSEPHS is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
        ST JOSEPHS is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights since 1997.
        ST JOSEPHS is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        ST JOSEPHS is 3-1 against the spread versus LASALLE over the last 3 seasons
        LASALLE is 2-2 straight up against ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
        4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        MICHIGAN ST (18 - 4) at ILLINOIS (7 - 15) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        ILLINOIS is 84-60 ATS (+18.0 Units) in February games since 1997.
        MICHIGAN ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
        MICHIGAN ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
        MICHIGAN ST is 99-64 ATS (+28.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
        MICHIGAN ST is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
        MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
        MICHIGAN ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a conference game this season.
        MICHIGAN ST is 67-39 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        MICHIGAN ST is 2-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
        MICHIGAN ST is 2-1 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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        PITTSBURGH (12 - 10) at WAKE FOREST (8 - 13) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        WAKE FOREST is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 37-62 ATS (-31.2 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
        WAKE FOREST is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        WAKE FOREST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
        WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        BOSTON COLLEGE (11 - 9) at DUKE (19 - 2) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        DUKE is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        DUKE is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        DUKE is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
        DUKE is 141-96 ATS (+35.4 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points since 1997.
        DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
        DUKE is 225-166 ATS (+42.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
        BOSTON COLLEGE is 125-88 ATS (+28.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
        BOSTON COLLEGE is 125-88 ATS (+28.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
        BOSTON COLLEGE is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
        DUKE is 1-1 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        AKRON (13 - 8) at TOLEDO (18 - 4) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        AKRON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
        AKRON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        TOLEDO is 2-1 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
        TOLEDO is 2-1 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        MIAMI OHIO (12 - 10) at KENT ST (16 - 5) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        KENT ST is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1997.
        KENT ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        MIAMI OHIO is 2-1 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
        KENT ST is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        BOWLING GREEN (15 - 6) at W MICHIGAN (6 - 15) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        W MICHIGAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
        BOWLING GREEN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
        BOWLING GREEN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
        BOWLING GREEN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
        BOWLING GREEN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        BOWLING GREEN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
        W MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        BOWLING GREEN is 2-1 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
        BOWLING GREEN is 2-1 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        DRAKE (17 - 6) at LOYOLA-IL (14 - 9) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        LOYOLA-IL is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        LOYOLA-IL is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        LOYOLA-IL is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        LOYOLA-IL is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
        DRAKE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games this season.
        DRAKE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
        DRAKE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        LOYOLA-IL is 4-1 against the spread versus DRAKE over the last 3 seasons
        LOYOLA-IL is 4-1 straight up against DRAKE over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        S CAROLINA (11 - 10) at KENTUCKY (18 - 3) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        S CAROLINA is 65-98 ATS (-42.8 Units) in February games since 1997.
        KENTUCKY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
        S CAROLINA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
        S CAROLINA is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        KENTUCKY is 1-1 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
        KENTUCKY is 1-1 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        BALL ST (11 - 11) at N ILLINOIS (12 - 10) - 2/5/2019, 8:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        BALL ST is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        BALL ST is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        BALL ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
        BALL ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
        N ILLINOIS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        N ILLINOIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
        N ILLINOIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        N ILLINOIS is 3-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
        BALL ST is 3-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        VALPARAISO (12 - 11) at ILLINOIS ST (14 - 9) - 2/5/2019, 8:00 PM
        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        ILLINOIS ST is 2-1 against the spread versus VALPARAISO over the last 3 seasons
        VALPARAISO is 2-1 straight up against ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        ST JOHNS (16 - 6) at MARQUETTE (19 - 3) - 2/5/2019, 8:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MARQUETTE is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) in all games this season.
        MARQUETTE is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
        MARQUETTE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
        MARQUETTE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all home games this season.
        MARQUETTE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
        MARQUETTE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after a conference game this season.
        MARQUETTE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        ST JOHNS is 3-2 against the spread versus MARQUETTE over the last 3 seasons
        ST JOHNS is 3-2 straight up against MARQUETTE over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        MICHIGAN (20 - 2) at RUTGERS (11 - 10) - 2/5/2019, 8:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MICHIGAN is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        MICHIGAN is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        MICHIGAN is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        MICHIGAN is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        RUTGERS is 1-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
        MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
        1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        FLORIDA ST (16 - 5) at SYRACUSE (16 - 6) - 2/5/2019, 8:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        FLORIDA ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
        FLORIDA ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
        FLORIDA ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
        FLORIDA ST is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
        SYRACUSE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        SYRACUSE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
        SYRACUSE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
        FLORIDA ST is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        SYRACUSE is 1-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
        SYRACUSE is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        NC STATE (16 - 6) at N CAROLINA (17 - 4) - 2/5/2019, 8:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        N CAROLINA is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
        N CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
        N CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        N CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
        N CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        DAYTON (15 - 7) at SAINT LOUIS (14 - 8) - 2/5/2019, 9:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        DAYTON is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        DAYTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
        SAINT LOUIS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
        SAINT LOUIS is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in February games since 1997.
        SAINT LOUIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
        SAINT LOUIS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
        SAINT LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        SAINT LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus DAYTON over the last 3 seasons
        DAYTON is 3-1 straight up against SAINT LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        MISSOURI (11 - 9) at TENNESSEE (20 - 1) - 2/5/2019, 9:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        MISSOURI is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
        MISSOURI is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        TENNESSEE is 2-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
        TENNESSEE is 2-1 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        KANSAS (17 - 5) at KANSAS ST (16 - 5) - 2/5/2019, 9:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        KANSAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        KANSAS is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
        KANSAS is 5-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        VANDERBILT (9 - 12) at ARKANSAS (13 - 8) - 2/5/2019, 9:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        VANDERBILT is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        VANDERBILT is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        VANDERBILT is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        VANDERBILT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
        VANDERBILT is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        VANDERBILT is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        VANDERBILT is 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        ARKANSAS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
        ARKANSAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        ARKANSAS is 3-1 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
        ARKANSAS is 3-1 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
        4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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        FLORIDA (12 - 9) at AUBURN (15 - 6) - 2/5/2019, 9:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        FLORIDA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        FLORIDA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
        FLORIDA is 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.
        FLORIDA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
        FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
        1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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        UTAH ST (17 - 5) at FRESNO ST (16 - 5) - 2/5/2019, 10:30 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        UTAH ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        UTAH ST is 3-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
        UTAH ST is 3-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
        2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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        SAN DIEGO ST (13 - 8) at NEW MEXICO (9 - 12) - 2/5/2019, 11:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
        NEW MEXICO is 201-162 ATS (+22.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN DIEGO ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        NEW MEXICO is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
        NEW MEXICO is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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        RIDER (12 - 9) at MANHATTAN (6 - 16) - 2/5/2019, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        RIDER is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in all games this season.
        RIDER is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
        RIDER is 105-137 ATS (-45.7 Units) as a favorite since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        MANHATTAN is 4-2 against the spread versus RIDER over the last 3 seasons
        RIDER is 5-1 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
        3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Comment


        • #5
          NCAAB

          Tuesday, February 5


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Trend Report
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          Saint Joseph's @ La Salle
          Saint Joseph's
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saint Joseph's's last 5 games when playing La Salle
          The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saint Joseph's's last 13 games
          La Salle
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of La Salle's last 5 games when playing Saint Joseph's
          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of La Salle's last 11 games

          Miami-Ohio @ Kent State
          Miami-Ohio
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-Ohio's last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-Ohio's last 5 games
          Kent State
          Kent State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami-Ohio
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kent State's last 7 games when playing Miami-Ohio

          South Carolina @ Kentucky
          South Carolina
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 5 games
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 6 games on the road
          Kentucky
          Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

          Drake @ Loyola-Chicago
          Drake
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Drake's last 7 games
          Drake is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
          Loyola-Chicago
          Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Drake

          Michigan State @ Illinois
          Michigan State
          Michigan State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
          Michigan State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
          Illinois
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois's last 7 games when playing Michigan State
          The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Illinois's last 15 games when playing at home against Michigan State

          Boston College @ Duke
          Boston College
          Boston College is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games
          Duke
          Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
          Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston College

          Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest
          Pittsburgh
          The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games
          Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Wake Forest
          Wake Forest
          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Wake Forest's last 8 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wake Forest's last 7 games at home

          Akron @ Toledo
          Akron
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 5 games when playing Toledo
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 5 games
          Toledo
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 5 games at home
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 5 games when playing Akron

          Bowling Green @ Western Michigan
          Bowling Green
          Bowling Green is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
          Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
          Western Michigan
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Michigan's last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Michigan's last 5 games at home

          Rider @ Manhattan
          Rider
          Rider is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Manhattan
          Rider is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
          Manhattan
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Manhattan's last 7 games
          Manhattan is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Rider

          Valparaiso @ Illinois State
          Valparaiso
          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Valparaiso's last 8 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Valparaiso's last 6 games on the road
          Illinois State
          Illinois State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          Illinois State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

          Ball State @ Northern Illinois
          Ball State
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ball State's last 10 games when playing Northern Illinois
          Northern Illinois
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games at home
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games

          Michigan @ Rutgers
          Michigan
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan's last 5 games
          Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers
          Rutgers
          Rutgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games when playing Michigan

          North Carolina State @ North Carolina
          North Carolina State
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 6 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina State's last 8 games when playing on the road against North Carolina
          North Carolina
          North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
          North Carolina is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against North Carolina State

          Florida State @ Syracuse
          Florida State
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida State's last 6 games when playing Syracuse
          The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Florida State's last 11 games on the road
          Syracuse
          Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
          Syracuse is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

          St. John's @ Marquette
          St. John's
          St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Marquette
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. John's's last 8 games when playing Marquette
          Marquette
          Marquette is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
          Marquette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

          Missouri @ Tennessee
          Missouri
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Missouri's last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
          Tennessee
          Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

          Dayton @ Saint Louis
          Dayton
          Dayton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Saint Louis
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dayton's last 7 games on the road
          Saint Louis
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Louis's last 6 games at home
          Saint Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

          Vanderbilt @ Arkansas
          Vanderbilt
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 5 games when playing Arkansas
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 5 games
          Arkansas
          Arkansas is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Vanderbilt
          Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Vanderbilt

          Florida @ Auburn
          Florida
          Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Auburn
          Florida is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Auburn
          Auburn
          Auburn is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Auburn's last 7 games

          Kansas @ Kansas State
          Kansas
          Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State
          Kansas is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Kansas State
          Kansas State
          Kansas State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas State's last 9 games at home

          Utah State @ Fresno State
          Utah State
          Utah State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Fresno State
          Fresno State
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 6 games at home
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 6 games when playing at home against Utah State

          San Diego State @ New Mexico
          San Diego State
          San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
          San Diego State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
          New Mexico
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico's last 7 games when playing San Diego State
          The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Mexico's last 16 games when playing San Diego State


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          Comment


          • #6
            NCAAB
            Armadillo's Write-Up

            Tuesday, February 5


            Michigan State lost its last two games after an 18-2 start; they’re only playing seven guys with Langford out for year. Spartans are 5-1 on Big 14 road, winning by 11-9-15-6-15 points. Illinois split its last six games after a 4-12 start; they’re 2-2 in Big 14 true home games, losing by 10-12 points. MSU won four of last five games with Illinois, winning three of last four visits here, with wins by 16-7-20 points- they lost here two years ago. Spartans are 22-11 in its last 33 games as a road favorite, 5-1 this year; Illini is 8-6 in its last 14 games as a home underdog, 2-3 this year.

            Akron won four of its last five games; they’re 5-3 in MAC, 1-3 on road, with only win at Ohio- their road losses are by 2-17-7 points. Zips are shooting 26.6% on arc in MAC games. Toledo won six of its last seven games, is 6-3 in MAC, winning last three home games, by 12-23-4 points. MAC teams are shooting 45.4% inside arc against them. Toledo won six of last seven games with Akron, winning last three meetings here, by 17-14-2 points. Zips are 6-9 in last 15 games as a MAC road dog; Toledo is 17-23 in last 40 games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year.

            Drake won five of its last six games, is 6-4 in MVC, winning last three road games, by 17-11-6 points. Bulldogs are turning ball over 21.5% of time in Valley games. Loyola won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-3 in MVC, 5-0 at home, with three wins by 17+ points. Loyola is 7-3 vs Drake in MVC games, winning last three by 15-23-15 points; Bulldogs are 0-5 at Loyola, losing by 10-3-5-15-15 points. Drake is 6-4 in its last ten games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year; Loyola is 13-9 in its last 22 games as a home favorite, 3-2 this year.

            Marquette won its last eight games since an 89-69 loss at St John’s Jan 1, when Johnnies made 11-24 on arc, while Eagles were 6-21. Home side won last five series games; Red Storm lost last two visits to Milwaukee, by 22-12 points. SJU lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on big East road, with losses by 2-5-9 points. Marquette won all four of its Big East home games, with wins by 18-4-11-10 points. St John’s is 8-4 in its last dozen games as a road underdog, 3-1 this year; Marquette is 10-7-1 in its last 18 games as a home favorite, 2-1-1 this year.

            Michigan is 3-2 in its last five games after a 17-0 start; they lost two of last three road games, losing at Wisconsin/Iowa- their road wins are by 2-10-23 points. Rutgers won three of its last four games, beating Nebraska/Indiana in its last two home games. Michigan is 5-0 vs Rutgers in Big 14 play (2-3 vs spread), winning both meetings here by four points. Home side covered four of the five games. Wolverines are 4-8 in last dozen games as a road favorite, 2-3 this year; Rutgers is 11-9 in its last 20 games as a home underdog, 2-2 this year.

            North Carolina overcame 23 turnovers (-10), made 10-22 on arc in 90-82 win at NC State Jan 8; Tar Heels won 29 of last 33 series games, but Wolfpack won 95-91 (+13) here LY. State covered four of last five visits to Chapel Hill. Wolfpack scored 24 points in a home loss Saturday; they’re 3-5 in last eight games- they split four ACC road tilts. Tar Heels won its last five games, winning last three by 21-23-10 points. Wolfpack is 6-10 in last 16 games as an ACC road underdog, 0-1 this year; UNC is 12-8 in its last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year.

            Florida State won its last three games, by 9-10-12 points; they’re 1-3 in ACC road games, with win at Miami, losses by 13-13-5 points. Syracuse won nine of its last 11 games, is 7-2 in ACC, winning last two home games, by 11-20 points. Home side won five of last six FSU-Syracuse games; Seminoles are 0-3 in the Carrier Dome, losing by 13-13-12 points. FSU beat Syracuse 101-90 in double OT LY. Seminoles are 7-10 in last 17 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year; Syracuse is 11-4 in its last 15 games as a home favorite, 3-1 this year.

            Dayton won 10 of its last 12 games after a 5-5 start; Flyers are 7-2 in A-14, 3-1 on road, with only loss at VCU0— they allowed 60 ppg in winning last three games. Saint Louis lost its last four games after a 14-4 start; Billikens lost last two road games by total of four points, to Davidson/Richmond. SLU swept Dayton by 10-3 points LY, after losing previous seven series games; Flyers won four of last five visits here. Dayton is 0-5-1 in its last six games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year; Billikens are 8-4 in last 12 games as a home favorite, 2-3 this year.

            Kansas lost its last three road games, scoring 64-63-63 points; they shot 40%+ from arc in their last four wins. Jayhawks have almost no depth now. K-State won six of its last seven games; they are 6-2 in Big X, winning last three home games, by 2-10-13 points. Kansas won last eight games and 31 of last 36 games with Kansas State, winning last three visits to the Little Apple, by 9-3-14 points. Last five years, Jayhawks are 8-5 vs spread as a Big X road underdog, 0-1 this year; K-State covered seven of last nine games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year.

            Vanderbilt lost its last nine games, is 0-8 in SEC, losing road games by 19-9-10 points. SEC teams are shooting 55.6% inside arc vs Vandy- they’re 0-8 vs top 50 teams. Arkansas won three of last four games, is 4-4 in SEC, beating Missouri/Georgia in last two home games, by 12-10 points. Hogs are forcing turnovers 21.8% of time in SEC tilts. Arkansas won six of last seven games with Vanderbilt, winning five of last six meetings here. Under Drew, Vandy is 12-7 in its last 19 games as a road dog; Hogs are 15-11 in last 26 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year.

            Florida won its last 11 games with Auburn, covering last four and winning last seven visits to the Plains. Gators is 4-5 in its last nine games- they’re 2-1 in SEC road games, losing at Miss State by 3, winning at Arkansas/Georgia. Florida is forcing turnovers 24.5% of time in SEC games. Auburn won its last two games by 34-21 points; they’re 3-1 in SEC home games, winning by 15-34-21, with a loss to Kentucky. Gators are 11-7-2 in last 20 games as a road underdog, 0-0-1 this year; Auburn is 9-4 in its last 13 games as a home favorite, 3-1 this year.

            Fresno State won 78-77 at Utah State Jan 9, after trailing by 9 with 8:19 left; Bulldogs made 15-31 on the arc that night. USU won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four visits to Fresno- they won here 65-62 LY. USU won its last six games, is 7-2 in MW, winning last three road games. Fresno is also 7-2 in MW, 3-1 at home, with wins by 11-4-12 points, with a loss by 10 to Nevada. Aggies are 7-16 in last 23 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year; Fresno is 4-7 vs spread in its last 11 games as a home favorite, 0-3 this year.

            San Diego State drilled New Mexico 97-77 at home Jan 15, scoring 1.31 ppp; Lobos made 13-32 on arc and still lost by 20. Aztecs lost their last two games in the Pit, by 5-4 points. San Diego St won its last three games, is 5-3 in MW, 1-3 on road, with lone win at San Jose. New Mexico lost six of its last seven games, is 3-6 in MW, splitting their four home games, with losses to UNLV by 11, Utah St by 2- they beat Nevada here. Under Dutcher, San Diego State is 4-9 vs spread on Mountain West road; under Weir, Lobos are 10-3 vs spread in MW home games, 3-1 this year.

            Comment


            • #7
              Tuesday's SEC Tips
              Brian Edwards

              Let’s get you updated on SEC hoops, something that finally exists again after a decade in the toilet -- outside of Florida and Kentucky – but is back on the map nationally the last two years.

              Tennessee’s dream season continues and the Volunteers are now alone at the top of the conference standings after Arkansas went into Baton Rouge and handed LSU its first SEC defeat. Rick Barnes’s team (12-7 against the spread) is 20-1 and perfect through eight league contests.

              UT will take a 16-game winning streak into tonight’s showdown vs. Missouri. As of early this morning, most books had the Vols installed as a 17-point home favorites against the Tigers, who are 1-4 both straight up and ATS. Tennessee is undefeated in 12 home games with a 5-5-1 spread ledger.

              Since needing overtime win at Vanderbilt on Jan. 23, UT has covered the number in three straight games. The Vols downed West Virginia 83-66 before winning 92-70 at South Carolina and 93-76 at Texas A&M. Grant Williams torched the Aggies for 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting from the field. He also had 10 rebounds, four assists, two blocked shots and one steal.

              Jordan Bone produced 18 points and five rebounds with a 10/2 assist-to-turnover ratio. Bone buried all of seven of his FGAs and went 4-of-4 from beyond the arc. Lamont Turner added 19 points, three steals, two boards and seven assists compared to merely one turnover.

              This game marks Cuonzo Martin’s return to Thompson-Boling Arena for the first time since serving as UT’s head coach by replacing the ultra-popular Bruce Pearl, who was forced out by former AD Mike Hamilton after misleading the NCAA during an investigation into the school’s basketball program. Martin led the Vols to the Sweet 16 in the final season of his three-year tenure, but left Knoxville to take the head-coaching job at Cal before eventually exiting for Mizzou.

              Missouri (11-9 SU, 8-11-1 ATS) is 2-6 in SEC play after losing its best player, Jontay Porter, to a season-ending ACL tear in October. Mark Smith, the Tigers’ second-leading scorer (12.6 points per game, 5.5 RPG), has missed three games in a row (sprained ankle) since scoring 22 points and seven rebounds in a Jan. 23 loss at Arkansas. Smith is ‘questionable’ tonight vs. UT. Missouri is mired in a 2-6 ATS slump.

              This game will tip at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

              As of early this morning, most books had Auburn (15-6 SU, 10-9 ATS) listed as a 7.5-point favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Florida. The total was 137.5 points.

              Pearl’s team is 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS at home following Saturday’s 84-63 win over Alabama as a 10-point ‘chalk.’ A 6-0 ‘over’ run for the Tigers came to a halt when the 147 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 152-point tally. Bryce Brown led the winners with 23 points on 5-of-7 shooting from 3-point range.

              UF saw its three-game SEC winning streak snapped Saturday when it allowed an 11-point second-half lead to get away in a 65-54 loss to Kentucky as a four-point home underdog. The 119 combined points fell ‘under’ the 132-point total. The Gators led 42-31 with 13 minutes left, only to score only six points in the next 11-pluls minutes.

              UK’s Tyler Herro scored a game-high 19 points by burying 6-of-8 field-goal attempts, 3-of-4 shots from 3-point territory and all four of his FTAs. P.J. Washington added 15 points and 12 rebounds.

              UF’s Andrew Nembhard scored 12 points and had three assists and two steals. KeVaughn Allen and Jalen Hudson scored 11 points apiece for the Gators, who are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in five road assignments.

              Florida has failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games. UF is winless SU and 1-5 ATS in six games as an underdog this year. This is the Gators’ richest spot as underdogs.

              Florida has an 11-game winning streak over Auburn and has won 21 of the last 22 head-to-head meetings. AU’s last win over UF came at the 2009 SEC Tournament.

              The ‘under’ is 13-8 overall for Florida, 4-1 in its five road games. Going back further, the ‘under’ has cashed at a 12-2 clip in the Gators’ past 14 road contests. The ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run for Auburn to improve to 12-8 overall and 7-4 in its home outings.

              Tip-off on ESPNU is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

              Kentucky (18-3 SU, 12-9 ATS) returns home to Rupp Arena tonight to face South Carolina as a 16-point favorite. The total was 146.5 points as of early this morning. The SEC Network will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

              Since losing its league opener at Alabama, John Calipari’s club has won eight games in a row and covered the spread in six straight. However, the Wildcats are 4-6 ATS as double-digit ‘chalk’ and 0-2 ATS in a pair of such spots against SEC competition.

              UK and LSU are tied for the second place in the SEC with identical 7-1 conference records. South Carolina (11-10 SU, 8-12 ATS) is in fourth place with a 6-2 mark in SEC action.

              Frank Martin’s team went into Athens on Saturday and beat Georgia by an 86-80 count as a 2.5-point road underdog. The ‘over’ (149) was an easy winner to hit in a fifth straight USC game. The ‘over’ is on a 9-1 run for the Gamecocks, who have seen the ‘over’ go 15-4 overall and 5-2 in their road games.

              Chris Silva scored 19 points and grabbed six rebounds at UGA. A.J. Lawson finished with 19 points and seven boards, while Hassani Gravett and Keyshawn Bryant were also in double figures with 13 and 11 points, respectively.

              South Carolina is 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS in seven road assignments. The Gamecocks are 6-6 ATS with five outright wins in 12 games as underdogs. They’re 2-0 ATS in a pair of games as double-digit underdogs, winning outright at UF as 11-point ‘dogs and losing 89-78 at Michigan as 17-point puppies.

              UK had won four in a row both SU and ATS over South Carolina into going to Columbia last year. That’s when the Gamecocks beat the ‘Cats 76-68 as one-point home underdogs. The ‘over’ hit for the third straight time in this rivalry. In fact, the ‘over’ is 22-10 in the past 32 UK-USC meetings and 10-4 in the last 14 times they’ve collided at Rupp.

              Another SEC game on tap tonight is Vanderbilt at Arkansas. The Razorbacks were eight-point home favorites this morning with the total at 147.5. The SEC Network will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

              Arkansas is in a six-way tie for fifth place in the SEC standings. Mike Anderson’s team shared as 4-4 league record along with Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Vandy is the only team still looking for its first SEC win with a 0-8 conference record.

              Arkansas (13-8 SU, 11-10 ATS) has won back-to-back games and three of its last four while going 4-0 ATS. The Razorbacks won 90-89 at LSU as 10-point underdogs Saturday night at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Daniel Gafford led the way with 23 points, eight rebounds and two blocked shots. Isaiah Joe added 18 points and Keyshawn Embery-Simpson had 16 points in 22 minutes off the bench.

              Vandy is 2-7 ATS during its current nine-game losing streak. Six of its nine losses have come by double-digit margins and seven have come by at least nine points. The Commodores lost 77-66 at Missouri on Saturday night despite Smith’s absence for the Tigers.

              The ‘under’ is 15-6 overall for the Hogs, 10-3 in their home games. However, the ‘over’ has cashed in four consecutive Vandy games.

              Arkansas is 6-1 both SU and ATS in its last seven games against Vandy. The ‘under’ has prevailed in the past four games of this rivalry.

              **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

              -- Penn State ended its eight-game losing streak last night by winning 59-52 at Northwestern as a 3.5-point road underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a +145 return (paid $145 on $100 wagers). The 111 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 131.5-point total. Lamar Stevens led PSU with 18 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two blocked shots.

              -- Louisville was a live underdog last night, too, capturing a 72-64 win at Va. Tech as a five-point underdog. Gamblers on U of L to win outright cashed a +180 money-line ticket. The 136 combined points inched ‘over’ the 135-point total. Ryan McMahon scored 17 points in 16 minutes of playing time from off the bench. McMahon drained 4-of-5 launches from downtown and all five of his FTAs.

              -- Kansas State (16-5 SU, 11-10 ATS) was favored by two early this morning for tonight’s home game vs. Kansas. The total was 130 points. The Wildcats have won six straight conference games with a non-conference loss at Texas A&M on Jan. 26. They bounced back from the loss to the Aggies and avoided the look-ahead situation in Saturday’s 75-57 win at Oklahoma State. as 2.5-point road favorites. The ‘under’ is 14-7 overall for KSU, 9-1 in its home games. Bruce Weber’s bunch is 9-1 SU but just 3-7 ATS at home. Kansas is an abysmal 1-5 both SU and ATS in six road assignments. KU had failed to cover the spread in five straight games until beating Texas Tech 79-63 on Saturday as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Marcus Garrett (7.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG & 2.4 APG) is ‘questionable’ at KSU (ankle). The Jayhawks have won eight in a row over K-State while going 5-2-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the past four head-to-head meetings. Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

              -- As of early this morning, Syracuse was a 2.5 or three-point home favorite for tonight’s home game vs. FSU on the ACC Network at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The Orange is 9-2 both SU and ATS in its last 11 games. The Seminoles are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in five road outings. They’ve bounced back from a three-game losing streak to win three in a row and improve to 4-4 in ACC action.

              Comment


              • #8
                NCAAB
                Dunkel

                Tuesday, February 5



                San Diego St @ New Mexico

                Game 643-644
                February 5, 2019 @ 11:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                San Diego St
                50.643
                New Mexico
                52.284
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                New Mexico
                by 1 1/2
                145
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                San Diego St
                by 2
                148 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                New Mexico
                (+2); Under

                Utah State @ Fresno State

                Game 641-642
                February 5, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Utah State
                60.362
                Fresno State
                61.194
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Fresno State
                by 1
                139
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Utah State
                by 1
                141
                Dunkel Pick:
                Fresno State
                (+1); Under

                Florida @ Auburn

                Game 639-640
                February 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Florida
                66.067
                Auburn
                75.610
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Auburn
                by 9 1/2
                131
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Auburn
                by 7
                136 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Auburn
                (-7); Under

                Vanderbilt @ Arkansas

                Game 637-638
                February 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Vanderbilt
                56.070
                Arkansas
                67.654
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Arkansas
                by 11 1/2
                143
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Arkansas
                by 8
                147
                Dunkel Pick:
                Arkansas
                (-8); Under

                Kansas @ Kansas State

                Game 635-636
                February 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Kansas
                71.698
                Kansas State
                71.402
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Kansas
                Even
                126
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Kansas State
                by 2 1/2
                131
                Dunkel Pick:
                Kansas
                (+2 1/2); Under

                Missouri @ Tennessee

                Game 633-634
                February 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Missouri
                62.439
                Tennessee
                76.772
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Tennessee
                by 14 1/2
                143
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Tennessee
                by 17
                141 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Missouri
                (+17); Over

                Dayton @ St Louis

                Game 631-632
                February 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Dayton
                56.273
                St Louis
                63.960
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                St Louis
                by 7 1/2
                131
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                St Louis
                by 1
                131 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                St Louis
                (-1); Under

                NC State @ North Carolina

                Game 629-630
                February 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                NC State
                66.222
                North Carolina
                79.121
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                North Carolina
                by 13
                168
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                North Carolina
                by 10 1/2
                163
                Dunkel Pick:
                North Carolina
                (-10 1/2); Over

                Florida State @ Syracuse

                Game 627-628
                February 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Florida State
                68.833
                Syracuse
                67.463
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Florida State
                by 1 1/2
                140
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Syracuse
                by 3
                137
                Dunkel Pick:
                Florida State
                (+3); Over

                Michigan @ Rutgers

                Game 625-626
                February 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Michigan
                70.053
                Rutgers
                61.854
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Michigan
                by 8
                124
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Michigan
                by 10
                125 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Rutgers
                (+10); Under

                St John's @ Marquette

                Game 623-624
                February 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                St John's
                64.070
                Marquette
                72.232
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Marquette
                by 8
                152
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Marquette
                by 6
                154
                Dunkel Pick:
                Marquette
                (-6); Under

                Valparaiso @ Illinois State

                Game 621-622
                February 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Valparaiso
                49.661
                Illinois State
                60.176
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Illinois State
                by 10 1/2
                129
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Illinois State
                by 7
                132
                Dunkel Pick:
                Illinois State
                (-7); Under

                Ball State @ Northern Illinois

                Game 619-620
                February 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Ball State
                54.132
                Northern Illinois
                47.691
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Ball State
                by 6 1/2
                151
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Northern Illinois
                by 2
                150 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Ball State
                (+2); Over

                Stetson @ Liberty

                Game 1493-1494
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Stetson
                35.163
                Liberty
                64.197
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Liberty
                by 29
                130
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Liberty
                by 23
                135 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Liberty
                (-23); Under

                Rider @ Manhattan

                Game 645-646
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Rider
                53.013
                Manhattan
                39.651
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Rider
                by 13 1/2
                143
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Rider
                by 6 1/2
                131
                Dunkel Pick:
                Rider
                (-6 1/2); Over

                South Carolina @ Kentucky

                Game 617-618
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                South Carolina
                63.890
                Kentucky
                77.876
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Kentucky
                by 14
                156
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Kentucky
                by 16
                146 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                South Carolina
                (+16); Over

                Drake @ Loyola-Chicago

                Game 615-616
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Drake
                47.222
                Loyola-Chicago
                58.690
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Loyola-Chicago
                by 11 1/2
                131
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Loyola-Chicago
                by 5 1/2
                129
                Dunkel Pick:
                Loyola-Chicago
                (-5 1/2); Over

                Bowling Green @ Western Michigan

                Game 613-614
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Bowling Green
                59.447
                Western Michigan
                44.630
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Bowling Green
                by 15
                150
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Bowling Green
                by 5 1/2
                147 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Bowling Green
                (-5 1/2); Over

                Miami-OH @ Kent State

                Game 611-612
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Miami-OH
                58.065
                Kent State
                59.141
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Kent State
                by 1
                156
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Kent State
                by 3 1/2
                142 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Miami-OH
                (+3 1/2); Over

                Akron @ Toledo

                Game 609-610
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Akron
                55.603
                Toledo
                61.230
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Toledo
                by 5 1/2
                127
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Toledo
                by 7 1/2
                132 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Akron
                (+7 1/2); Under

                Boston College @ Duke

                Game 607-608
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Boston College
                59.295
                Duke
                84.853
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Duke
                by 25 1/2
                162
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Duke
                by 23 1/2
                156 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Duke
                (-23 1/2); Over

                Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest

                Game 605-606
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Pittsburgh
                59.267
                Wake Forest
                54.441
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Pittsburgh
                by 7 1/2
                133
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Pittsburgh
                by 2 1/2
                138 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Pittsburgh
                (-2 1/2); Under

                Michigan State @ Illinois

                Game 603-604
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Michigan State
                74.372
                Illinois
                66.050
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Michigan State
                by 8 1/2
                146
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                Michigan State
                by 10
                148
                Dunkel Pick:
                Illinois
                (+10); Under

                St Joseph's @ LaSalle

                Game 601-602
                February 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                St Joseph's
                54.744
                LaSalle
                47.565
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                St Joseph's
                by 7
                145
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                LaSalle
                by 2
                141 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                St Joseph's
                (+2); Over

                Comment


                • #9
                  Top 25 Betting Recap
                  Joe Williams

                  Each week until March Madness we'll take a look at how the Top 25 fared from college basketball, but straight up and against the number, while also taking a look at their upcoming schedule.

                  North Carolina State (16-6 SU, 13-9 ATS) had a difficult week, and it wrapped up with one of the most ugly performances in recent memory. The Wolfpack actually hung with Virginia (20-1 SU, 16-5 ATS), falling 66-65 in overtime at PNC Arena in Raleigh. Perhaps the emotional letdown was too much for the young Wolfpack, as they absolutely laid an egg against Virginia Tech (18-3 SU, 12-8 ATS) on Saturday. The Hokies do rank sixth in the nation, allowing just 60.2 points per game (PPG), and that likely bumped up even further after the took care of the Wolfpack by a 47-24 score which resembled more of a football score than today's era of high-scoring basketball. The Pack scored just 14 points in the first half, and 10 in the second, hitting just 9-of-54 (16.7 percent) from the field to set a new school low. It was also the lowest point total in the shot-clock era, which dates back to 1985-86.

                  Buffalo (19-3 SU, 13-7-1 ATS) had been in the Top 25 rankings for a good chunk of the season, but the Bulls are likely to fall out of the rankings. In fact, they're not even in first place in the East Division of the Mid-American Conference. That's because the Bulls lost a crucial battle for first place against Bowling Green (15-6 SU, 13-6 ATS) to fall a half-game back of the Falcons. The Bulls are now 2-2 SU over the past four games, and 2-4 ATS across the past six outings.

                  Kansas State (16-5 SU, 11-10 ATS) and Baylor (15-6 SU, 14-7 ATS) currently sit atop the Big 12 Conference at 6-2, a half-game ahead of Iowa State (17-5 SU, 13-7-2 ATS) and Kansas (17-5 SU, 9-13 ATS), and one and a half games ahead of Texas Tech (17-5 SU, 7-14-1 ATS). Like football, these teams continue to beat on each other and it might cost them heading into March Madness. However, while the team is not currently projected to have anyone on the one-line, they might have several high seeds which will head into March battle tested. Kansas is on a major slide, going 2-3 SU and just 1-5 ATS over the past six outings. They'll look to turn things around against rival K-State. The Wildcats are a solid 5-1 ATS over the past six contests.

                  North Carolina (17-4 SU, 13-6-2 ATS) avenged a loss a couple of weeks ago against Louisville (16-6 SU, 12-8-2 ATS), beating the Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center by a 79-69 score as 1 1/2-point favorites. Since that wake-up call from the Cards on Jan. 12, the Tar Heels have won five in a row and they have covered four straight. Total bettors have liked the Heels for their 'under' results, too, as the total has gone under in 9-2 across the past 11 outings. For the Cardinals, the loss snapped a six-game win streak and a four-game cover streak.

                  Tennessee (20-1 SU, 12-7-1 ATS) will likely remain atop the rankings at No. 1 after doing nothing to hurt their standing. They won two road games this past week, and the Vols have covered three in a row, and eight of the past 10. Gonzaga (21-2 SU, 16-7 ATS), a team Tennessee beat back on Dec. 9, has won 12 in a row since mid-December, and they're 9-3 ATS during the span. The 'under' is also a frequent happening for the Zags, hitting in nine of the past 12, too.

                  Auburn (15-6 SU, 10-9-1 ATS) could be poised for a return to the Top 25 after beating Missouri (11-9 SU, 8-11-1 ATS) and rival Alabama (13-8 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) by a combined 55 points to cover double-digit spreads in both instances. The 'under' ended up cashing in Saturday's game against 'Bama, snapping a six-game 'over' run. Washington (18-4 SU, 13-8-1 ATS) continues to sit atop the Pac-12, and they're likely set to make a return to the rankings this week, too. The Huskies have also covered nine in a row, while the 'under' is 4-1 over the past five, so they're a friend to bettors for sure.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Florida State hopes to ride defense to road win at Syracuse, and this week's NCAA basketball odds and analysis

                    Is 50 the magic number for a cover-deficient Florida State team? That question will be answered this week as the Seminoles take on the Syracuse Orange in one of the marquee games on the early-week college basketball schedule. Other notable matchups include Duke in prime position to reverse its long home Under trend against Boston College, and LSU and Mississippi State set for a mid-week shootout. Here are the top games, betting trends and tips to monitor for this week's NCAA hoops action.

                    Nifty Fifty

                    The Florida State Seminoles are clinging to a Top 25 spot and they have some work to do if they hope to stay there. FSU visits Syracuse on Tuesday night, and could be in tough at +2.5 with the home team having covered each of the previous five meetings between the schools. But something about a solid defensive effort brings out the best in the Seminoles, who are a sizzling 19-4-1 ATS in their past 24 games after allowing 50 or fewer points in their previous game. That's a welcome sight to bettors who have seen Florida State go just 5-11-1 ATS in its past 17 games.

                    Blue Devils Bucking a Trend?

                    The Cameron Crazies have seen more than their share of lower-scoring affairs of late – but things could be quite different Tuesday night as the second-ranked Blue Devils host the Boston College Eagles. Bettors have made a healthy profit from betting Duke Unders at home, with the Blue Devils having gone 19-7-1 to the under in their last 27 games at Cameron Indoor Stadium. But Duke and Boston College have exceeded the total in each of their previous six meetings, and have combined for more than 170 points in their previous two encounters.

                    Point Parade

                    LSU and Mississippi State saw a brief reversal of their lengthy Over trend – but they're back on the O train, so to speak, as they renew acquaintances Wednesday night at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville. The Tigers and Bulldogs are 11-2 to the Over in their previous 13 meetings, including an 80-77 Mississippi State triumph in their last encounter March 8; they've also crossed the 155-point threshold in five of their past seven meetings. And both sides come in riding hot Over trends: LSU is 13-3 O/U in its past 16 road games, while Mississippi State has surpassed the number in four straight home outings.

                    Don't Fear the Spread

                    Whatever spread the Gonzaga Bulldogs will encounter for Thursday's home contest against San Francisco, bettors should feel comfortable giving the points away. The Bulldogs, who sit fourth in the Associated Press Top 25 Rankings, have gone 4-1 ATS in their previous five home games against the Dons despite being favored by at least 14.5 points in each game. Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points four times over that span, while holding San Francisco to 61 or fewer points on four different occasions. And the Dons have just two covers in seven road games this season.

                    Mid-Major to Watch: Lipscomb Bison (18-4 SU, 13-7 ATS, 10-10 O/U)

                    The Atlantic Sun Conference is shaping up to be a two-team race between Lipscomb and Liberty – and for the time being, at least, the Bison have the upper hand. And while the SU record is something to marvel at, bettors will be more interested to know that Lipscomb has gone 5-3 ATS in its past five games, including three straight away from Allen Arena. That bodes well for a Bisons team that hits the road for a Wednesday encounter with North Florida.

                    Lipscomb have done it with offense this season, entering the week ranked eighth in the nation in scoring at 85.5 points per game. The Bisons are also tied with Michigan State for 11th in field-goal shooting (49.4 percent) – but it isn't just their offensive prowess that has this team ranked in the top 10 among mid-major schools. Lipscomb is limiting opponents to a 40.7-percent success rate from the field, the 42nd-best mark in the country.

                    National Title Odds

                    The top teams remain largely unchanged, with the Blue Devils leading the way at +225 and Gonzaga and Virginia next in line at +1,000. One dark horse team to monitor: The sixth-ranked Nevada Wolf Pack, who are an unbelievable 21-1 SU coming into Tuesday and carry +1,800 odds of capturing the national championship.

                    Betting Trends

                    It was a sensational week for road underdogs – at least, relative to their ATS performance on the season. Away 'dogs converted more than 28 percent of the time over the previous seven days worth of games, a significant improvement on the 21.4-percent season-to-date success rate. Road teams won 41 percent of the time SU over the seven-day span.

                    Totals bettors have seen an uptick in Under results over the past week, with games sliding below the number nearly 53 percent of the time. That raises the 30-day under share to 51.8 percent, with 54.1 percent of non-overtime games coming in under the total during that span. Unders have converted 51.9 percent of the time so far this season.

                    Is good defense the key to a successful cover? It would appear so, at least through the first two-thirds of the college hoops season. Of the 10 teams with the best ATS records entering Tuesday, nine have more Unders than Overs. The only exception? East Tennessee State, which has a 16-6 ATS record and a 13-9 O/U mark.

                    Comment

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