Announcement

**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 08:20 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Florida 90, Ole Miss 86 OT— Gators hit a 3 with 0:02 left to tie game.

— Rutgers 66, Indiana 58— Hoosiers have lost seven games in a row.

— St John’s 83, Creighton 67— Red Storm’s guards are just too quick for Creighton.

— Michigan State’s Joshua Langford will miss rest of the season with a left foot injury.

— Campbell 68, Redford 67— Camels upset the 1st-place team in Big South on a buzzer beater by 5-9 Clemons, who had 39 points.

— Villanova/Marquette are a combined 16-1 in Big East games; no one else is over .500 in conference play.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) It was so cold in Chicago, work crews had to set fire to commuter rail tracks to keep the trains moving smoothly. That doesn’t sound that safe, but in the midwest this week, it is colder than in some parts of Antartica.

It was 35 below zero in Winnipeg Tuesday night, minus-49 with the wind. Yuk.

12) In his first eight years in the NBA, all with the Nets, Milwaukee Bucks’ center Brook Lopez was a combined 3-31 shooting behind the arc, while scoring around 17 points/game. He just didn’t shoot from the outside, it wasn’t a part of his game.

The last three years, playing for three different teams (Nets-Lakers-Bucks), Lopez has made 371 of 1,032 three-pointers (35.9%), an amazing transformation of his game.

Goes to show you that if you work at your game, you can improve drastically.

11) Roger Goodell makes around $32M a year to be the NFL’s commissioner; his one-hour press conference during Super Bowl week is probably the worst hour of that year every year. ��

10) Part of being a good coach is making in-season adjustments. Missouri State’s new coach is Dana Ford, who came over from Tennessee State; he wanted his Bears to play fast, but then Missouri State started the season 8-11, 2-4 in conference. Changes were made.

In their last three games, Missouri State played a much slower tempo, with fewer than 60 possessions in regulation of all three games, which the Bears won. Its easier to recruit when you play fast, but its easier to keep your job when you win, and once he recruits some more of his players into the program, Ford’s team will play fast again. Just not this year.

9) After standing in front of the Hard Rock Cafe for 28 years, the guitar-shaped sign that welcomed people to the Hard Rock has come down and can now be seen at the Neon Museum in downtown Las Vegas, where they have lot of cool old signs from Las Vegas’ past.

8) Arizona Diamondbacks gave manager Torey Lovullo a contract extension thru 2022; team traded Paul Goldschmidt this winter, they’re going to re-boot/rebuild which means they’re probably going to suck this year, so they gave the manager more job security.

7) When you hear an NBA announcer say: “Player A ‘Eurosteps’ to the hoop” thats a euphemism for “He walked, but they don’t call those kind of walks in the NBA.”

6) ESPN’s Adrian Branch said on air Tuesday night that Tennessee’s Grant Williams reminds him of former NBA star Adrian Dantley. Seeing how Dantley scored 23,177 points in his career, averaging 24.3 ppg, thats a pretty big compliment.

5) Florida Atlantic football coach Lane Kiffin made an unusual recruiting stop Wednesday; he stopped by the maternity ward of a hospital in north central Florida to visit a prospect who had recently become a father.

When you coach a mid-major team, you do what you have to do to get players.

4) Lincoln Riley got a contract extension from Oklahoma, will now make $6M a year.

3) Oklahoma State’s football team hired Princeton’s Sean Gleeson as offensive coordinator; Gleeson’s offense at Princeton scored 470 points LY, an Ivy League record. Tigers averaged 36.9 ppg during Gleeson’s six seasons on staff.

2) Happy 89th birthday to the great actor Gene Hackman, even though in Hoosiers, his character (coach Norman Dale) didn’t know enough to give Jimmy Chitwood the ball every time Hickory High needed a basket. My favorite Hackman movies:
a) Hoosiers, b) Runaway Jury c) The Replacements

1) Someone on Twitter suggested replacing the Pro Bowl with a game between the two worst teams in the NFL playing, with the winner getting the first pick in the draft. Only problem with that is if a draft pick is traded, and the team holding that pick is a playoff team. Then what?

**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 08:24 AM

NBA

Thursday, January 31

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Trend Report
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Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Indiana is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indiana's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
Indiana is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Orlando
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando Magic
Orlando is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 9 games
Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indiana
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 13 games
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
Detroit is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing at home against Dallas

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 14 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Toronto is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Brooklyn is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Brooklyn is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 8 games on the road
Brooklyn is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Brooklyn's last 10 games when playing San Antonio
Brooklyn is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games
San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games
San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games at home
San Antonio is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
San Antonio is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Brooklyn
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio's last 10 games when playing Brooklyn
San Antonio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

Los Angeles Lakers
LA Lakers is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Lakers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 12 games
LA Lakers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Lakers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Lakers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Lakers's last 16 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Clippers's last 15 games
LA Clippers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Clippers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Clippers's last 16 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Golden State
Philadelphia is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 9 games
Golden State is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Golden State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Golden State is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

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**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 08:25 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, January 31

Pacers are 0-3 since Oladipo got hurt, losing by 3-32-18 points; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Indy is 6-2 vs spread if they played night before. Orlando lost seven of its last eight games; they’re 0-4 vs spread in last four home games. Seven of their last nine games went over the total. Indiana won its last eight games with the Magic (7-1 vs spread); Pacers covered their last five trips to Orlando (under 3-2).

Mavericks won three of their last four games, are 4-1 vs spread in last five road games. Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Detroit lost four of its last five games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight home games. Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Pistons won five of last eight games with Dallas; six of last eight series games stayed under the total. Mavericks are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Detroit.

Bucks won seven of their last eight games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five road games. Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Toronto won 11 of its last 14 games; they covered five of their last seven home games. 10 of their last 13 games went over. Road teams won six of last nine Milwaukee-Toronto games; Bucks covered three of last four visits to Canada. Five of last six series games went over the total.

Nets won six of their last eight games; they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven road games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. San Antonio won five of its last seven games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in its last four home games. Over is 11-5 in their last 16 games. Spurs won/covered their last six games with Brooklyn; under is 8-1-1 in last ten series games. Nets are 0-4 vs spread in their last four visits to the Alamo.

76ers won six of their last eight games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six games as an underdog. Four of their last six games stayed under. Warriors won their last 11 games (8-3 vs spread); they covered their last three home games. Over is 10-3 inn their last 13 games. Golden State won its last ten games vs Philly, but 76ers covered six of last seven; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Sixers are 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Oakland.

Lakers lost four of their last five games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six Staples games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Clippers won four of their last six games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six Staples games. Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Clippers won seven of their last eight games with the Lakers (6-2 vs spread); under is 5-4-1 in last ten series games.

**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 09:49 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, January 31

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INDIANA (32 - 18) at ORLANDO (20 - 31) - 1/31/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 76-61 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 93-116 ATS (-34.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 27-43 ATS (-20.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 7-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 8-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (23 - 27) at DETROIT (21 - 28) - 1/31/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
DALLAS is 516-436 ATS (+36.4 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 191-144 ATS (+32.6 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DALLAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
DETROIT is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
DETROIT is 117-164 ATS (-63.4 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (36 - 13) at TORONTO (37 - 15) - 1/31/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 138-104 ATS (+23.6 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
TORONTO is 202-254 ATS (-77.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-8 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-6 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (28 - 24) at SAN ANTONIO (30 - 22) - 1/31/2019, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 851-723 ATS (+55.7 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 357-292 ATS (+35.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 192-143 ATS (+34.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BROOKLYN is 75-58 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 56-43 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-0 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-0 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (33 - 18) at GOLDEN STATE (36 - 14) - 1/31/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 75-44 ATS (+26.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 126-98 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (26 - 25) at LA CLIPPERS (28 - 23) - 1/31/2019, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 10:50 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, January 31

Indiana @ Orlando

Game 569-570
January 31, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
116.473
Orlando
116.881
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
Even
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 3
209
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+3); Over

Dallas @ Detroit

Game 571-572
January 31, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
115.135
Detroit
118.679
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2); Under

Milwaukee @ Toronto

Game 573-574
January 31, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
122.992
Toronto
122.210
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 1
235
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 3
230
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+3); Over

Brooklyn @ San Antonio

Game 575-576
January 31, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
113.860
San Antonio
123.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 9 1/2
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 7 1/2
227
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-7 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Golden State

Game 577-578
January 31, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
114.141
Golden State
126.360
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 12
244
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 9 1/2
240
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-9 1/2); Over

LA Lakers @ LA Clippers

Game 579-580
January 31, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
115.240
LA Clippers
122.149
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 7
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5 1/2
228
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-5 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 10:55 AM

Inside the Paint - Thursday
Chris David

Milwaukee (36-13 SU, 27-20-2 ATS) at Toronto (37-15 SU, 22-29-1 ATS)

The TNT double-header (8:05 p.m. ET) begins Thursday with a possible preview of this year’s Eastern Conference Finals as the Bucks and Raptors meet for the fourth and final time in the regular season. The latest futures market has Toronto (2/1) and Milwaukee (3/1) as the top contenders to win the East along with Boston (2/1) and Philadelphia (6/1).

Toronto holds a one-game over Milwaukee for the top seed in the Eastern Conference and the sense of urgency should be with the home squad. The Bucks won and covered their first two encounters against the Raptors this season, a 124-109 decision at home on Oct. 29 before a 104-99 road win on Dec. 9.

Toronto avenged those losses with a 123-116 win over Milwaukee as a 5 ½-point road underdog on Jan. 5 and it will need to claim Thursday’s win to salvage a season split.

The Raptors didn’t have Kawhi Leonard available for the loss in Milwaukee at the end of October but he did post 30 points on the Bucks in early January. Make a note that Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo also missed the first meeting of the regular season between the two teams but the Greek product posted 43 points in the recent setback to the Raptors. Unfortunately, Milwaukee’s supporting cast couldn’t buy a shot and that’s been an issue on the road.

The Bucks are ranked first in scoring offense at home with 120 points per game but that number drops to 114.1 on the road. Expecting a high-scoring game could be wishful thinking knowing the Toronto is holding opponents to 106.7 PPG at home.

That defensive effort has helped Toronto go 21-4 at home but it hasn’t been profitable (12-13 ATS) for bettors. Keep in mind that 11 of the 13 non-covers occurred in straight up wins when the team was laying 8 ½ points or more.

BookMaker sent out Toronto as a 2 ½-point home favorite for this installment, which is a drop-off from the spread (Raptors -5) in their first encounter from Scotiabank Arena in December. Since Milwaukee won that game at Toronto, the Raptors have ripped off 10 straight wins at home.

The adjustment from +5 to +2 ½ on the Bucks certainly shows how much respect Milwaukee has earned from the oddsmakers this season. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has been able to pull the right strings and he also has one of the deepest teams in the league. He’s surrounded Antetokounmpo with a ton of shooters and they’re not afraid to hoist from distance. The Bucks are ranked second in the league with 37.7 attempts from 3-point land, only behind Houston. When those bombs are connecting, 40-point quarters become the norm for Milwaukee.

The Bucks have only been listed as underdogs five times this season and they’ve gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in those games while the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 as well. The lone loss was a four-point setback (117-113) at Boston on Nov. 1, which was a highly competitive game.

Only four teams in the East owning winning records on the road and Milwaukee (14-9 SU, 11-10-2 ATS) is one of them. The Bucks enter this game with a 4-1 record in their last five away games, which includes Tuesday’s 115-105 win at Detroit as a seven-point favorite.

Toronto hasn’t played since Sunday when it snapped a two-game losing skid at Dallas with a 123-120 win as a 4 ½-point road favorite. The Raptors have gone 2-0 (0-2 ATS) this season when playing on three days or rest or more and the ‘over’ has cashed in both those games.

The total on this game opened 230 ½ and the early money has pushed the number to 232 as of Thursday morning. The ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run in this series and that includes a 2-1 mark in the last three games play in Canada.

Philadelphia (33-18 SU, 24-27 ATS) at Golden State (36-14 SU, 23-26-1 ATS)

The Warriors and 76ers will wrap up the TNT double-header at 10:35 p.m. ET in a quality non-conference matchup. Oddsmakers sent out Golden State as an 8 ½-point home favorite and the number has been nudged up to -9 ½ as of Thursday morning.

The Warriors have been on a roll, winners in 11 straight games and they’ve produced a 6-4-1 ATS mark during the streak. The team is 5-0 since DeMarcus Cousins suited up on Jan. 18 and the defense (106.8 PPG) has actually dropped from their season average (111.8 PPG).

This will be the first game back at Oracle Arena after winning five straight on the road and getting up for the first contest back at home is never easy. Plus, the 76ers are no slouch and they’re starting to click on all cylinders as well.

Philadelphia has gone 10-4 in 2019 and while a couple of the losses were embarrassing (Wizards, Hawks), they’ve posted some quality wins recently over the Pacers, Rockets and Spurs.

After losing at Denver 126-110 on Saturday with a short-handed squad, Philadelphia bounced back on Tuesday with a wire-to-wire 121-105 blowout over the L.A. Lakers from the Staples Center. The 76ers have won seven of their last nine games against the Western Conference and the offense is averaging 120.4 PPG in those games.

Philly is going to need hit that average and perhaps more on Thursday because Golden State’s offense has been lights out. During its 11-game winning streak, the Warriors are averaging 128.9 PPG and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 8-3.

Along with its current winning streak, Golden State has also won 10 in a row against Philadelphia. The 76ers have saved some face and turned profits for bettors during this run by going 6-1- ATS in the last seven meetings and they were catching some heavy digits.

Last season in the Bay Area, the Warriors ran the 76ers by 21 points (135-114) at home as 13 ½-point favorites.

Versus the East this season, Golden State has gone 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS. Two of those non-conference losses did come at home to the clubs (Bucks, Raptors) playing in the first game on TNT tonight. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Philadelphia join the duo and the money-line (+380) does seem tempting, especially knowing that the 76ers have gone 13-5 against the West this season. Make a note that a lot of those wins came against the cellar dwellers in that conference and they’re just 4-4 away from home.

Anytime I see a total listed in the 230s, my initial instinct is to play the ‘over’ and Thursday’s opener was sent out at 240 ½.

Golden State (28-22) and Philadelphia (28-23) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season but most of the high side tickets for the Warriors have come on the road (17-9) as opposed to home (11-13).

The Warriors have had six totals this season close in the 240s and the ‘over/under’ went 3-3 in those games. Philadelphia has never been in that totals neighborhood but it has had 10 numbers close in the 230s and the ‘under’ is 7-3.

If there is one flaw in the 76ers game this season, it’s their defense. The unit is ranked 22nd in scoring, surrendering 112.1 PPG and that’s a big jump from 105.3 PPG last season.

The pair will meet again on Mar. 2 from Philadelphia in a Saturday night showdown.

Along with the nationally televised games on TNT, we’ve got four other contests set for Thursday.

Indiana at Orlando: Since Victor Oladipo (quad) went down for the season, the Pacers have dropped three straight games and that includes last night’s 107-89 loss at Washington. Indiana has been solid on no rest (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) but it looks mentally shook right now. While I’m not sold on the Pacers, it’s hard to back the Magic as home favorites. They’ve gone 4-6 SAU and 3-7 ATS when laying points at home and none of those wins came against a team with a winning record.

Dallas at Detroit: Quick rematch game here as the Mavericks defeated the Pistons 106-101 last Friday as five-point favorites. The game pushed and the total pushed (207) as well. For the rematch, Detroit (-2) is listed as a short favorite and they’re catching Dallas on no rest. This has been an issue for the Mavericks, who have gone 1-7 SU and 4-4 ATS when facing back-to-back sets.

Brooklyn at San Antonio: DeMar DeRozan (knee) is expected to be back tonight but this line seems a little short with San Antonio only laying seven points. The Spurs have won six straight against the Nets and they’ve gone 4-0-2 ATS during this run while the ‘under’ is 5-1. San Antonio has been a solid investment at home recently, going 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS. The spread only mattered in one of those games, which took place on Tuesday as the Spurs defeated the Suns 126-124 but failed to cover as 13 ½-point home favorites.

L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers: LeBron James (groin) has been ruled ‘out’ for this game and the Clippers opened as home favorites (-5 ½) over the Lakers. The pair recently played in late December and the Clippers captured a 118-107 over the Lakers as seven-point road favorites. The Clippers have been solid as home favorites, going 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS.

**Udog** · 01-31-2019, 12:25 PM

Hoop Trends - Thursday
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS (+7.88 ppg) on the road off a win as a road favorite in which they scored at least 32% of their points from threes.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Raptors are 0-13 ATS (-6.08 ppg) as a favorite with rest when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

-- The Raptors are 12-0 OU (+19.71 ppg) at home off a win as a road favorite in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

-- The Magic are 0-18 OU (-11.42 ppg) at home off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs their opponent and it is before the All-Star break.

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Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/31

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/31

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