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FWIW – This is the time of year that teams start to take steps to preserve the legs of their starters for the long haul. You will see more and more game-time starter scratches, reduced starter minutes, and slack-D play (where underdogs, suddenly unguarded, have a field day beyond the arc), all which throws lines and over/under totals into a last minute tizzy (to say nothing of ruining statistical projections based on past performance). Not quite tanking season, but projected blowouts become closer games, and closing lines can drop 5-10 points in the blink of an eye. When I used to play fantasy, after 50 games in I used the twitter feeds of a couple dozen team watchers – but it takes constant monitoring to stay ahead of changes, and I finally got too old to stay the course and finally called it quits.
Naturally, it gets more difficult to win at Spreads and Over/Under wagering; and, with only about 30 games left for teams to play, bad teams will start to obviously tank, and good teams will, just as obviously, play less robustly (especially on defense) – so the betting atmosphere becomes ever cloudier. Statistical projections – at best – can only reliably give you the straight-up winners, but margins of victory become less and less certain; and only if you stay right on top of specific teams to watch, can you wager successfully using the model’s numbers.
I’ll continue to post until it gets ridiculous, then pick it up again come the playoffs.
GLTA
Naturally, it gets more difficult to win at Spreads and Over/Under wagering; and, with only about 30 games left for teams to play, bad teams will start to obviously tank, and good teams will, just as obviously, play less robustly (especially on defense) – so the betting atmosphere becomes ever cloudier. Statistical projections – at best – can only reliably give you the straight-up winners, but margins of victory become less and less certain; and only if you stay right on top of specific teams to watch, can you wager successfully using the model’s numbers.
I’ll continue to post until it gets ridiculous, then pick it up again come the playoffs.
GLTA
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