Announcement

**Udog** · 12-31-2018, 07:51 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks for Week 17 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest:

1) Colts, -3 (972)- W

2) Browns, +6 (904)- W

3) Bills, -3.5 (847)- W

4) Eagles, -6.5 (800)- W

5) Vikings, -4.5 (758)- L

6) Texans, -6.5 (670)- W

Final season record: 56-45-3

**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Cowboys 36, Giants 35— Not sure why Dallas played QB Prescott whole game, but they did and WR Beasley made a great catch with 1:12 left to win this game. Cowboys host Seattle next week; they’re in playoffs for only third time in last nine years.

Giants split their last eight games, scoring 27+ points in four of last five; six of those eight games were decided by four of fewer points. Big Blue lost nine of its last 11 games with Dallas.

Ravens 26, Browns 24— Baltimore was 4-5 and everyone assumed John Harbaugh was history, but they started rookie QB Jackson after their bye week and went on a 6-1 run that won them a division title. Ravens led this game 20-7 at halftime, then hung on for dear life; Browns had ball on their 40-yard line in last 1:20, but couldn’t get in field goal range.

Cleveland finished 7-8-1, their best record in 11 years; Mayfield is entrenched as their QB, and if you watched Hard Knocks this past summer, that probably surprises you. Good for them, but it sounds like Cleveland is going hire Mike McCarthy as head coach, instead of Gregg Williams.

Ravens host Chargers in playoffs next week; they upset Bolts 22-10 in Carson last week.

There was huge call in Ravens’ favor in last 2:00 of first half; Jackson fumbled near goal line, but whistle blew while Browns were running ball back for TD. That call may have kept Steelers out of the playoffs.

Colts 33, Titans 17— Colts bounced back from 1-5 start to make playoffs for first time in four years. Indy visits Houston next week; they split a pair of 3-point decisions with the Texans this season. In second half of season, Colts were 4-0 in games decided by 3 or fewer points.

Mariota didn’t play, Titans didn’t win; Tennessee finished 9-7 for third year in row; they fired Mike Mularkey after he made playoffs LY, but Vrabel didn’t make playoffs this year, despite winning four of last five games.

Patriots 38, Jets 3— Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ coach since 2000; Jets fired Todd Bowles after the game. Patriots are #2 seed in AFC; as for rest of AFC East since 2000……..

— Buffalo coaches: Phillips, Williams, Mularkey, Jauron, Gailey, Marrone, Ryan, McDermott
— Miami coaches: Wannstedt, Saban, Cameron, Sparano, Philbin, Gase.
— Jets coaches: Groh, Edwards, Mangini, Ryan, Bowles.

Eagles 24, Redskins 0— Philly outgained Redskins 360-89, held Washington to 8 first downs, 0-9 on third down plays. Eagles made playoffs when the Bears won in Minnesota; they visit Chicago in first round game next week. Foles re-injured his ribs, didn’t finish this game, but defending Super Bowl champs won five of their last six games.

Redskins started season 5-2, but were ravaged by injuries; they scored 16 or fewer points in their last five games, starting four QB’s in their last seven games.

Bears 24, Vikings 10— Chicago won/covered nine of last ten games; in their last four games, they allowed only two offensive TD’s on 41 drives. Bears host Philly in playoffs next week.

Since 2004, Minnesota has had 11 different QB’s; Zimmer fired his OC during the season this year. Vikings are 47-32-1 under Zimmer, but he needs to get his offense in order next year.

Texans 20, Jaguars 3— Houston won 11 of last 13 games; they host Colts in playoffs next week. Texans are in playoffs for fifth time in last eight years.

Jacksonville went 10-6 LY and made playoffs for first time in decade; they lost 3-9 in last 12 games, scoring 17 or fewer points in last five games. Kyler Murray would look very good in a Jacksonville uniform next fall.

Falcons 34, Buccaneers 32— Atlanta swept the Bucs this year, scoring 34 points in both games; Falcons showed some grit, winning last three games after a 4-9 start. Average total in last six games in this series is 59.2.

Tampa Bay fired Dirk Koetter after the game; kind of unfair to keep the GM and fire the coach when the QB is the guy who got suspended for off-field hijinx which threw the Bucs’ offense into disarray. Buccaneers haven’t made the playoffs since 2007- they were -18 in turnovers TY.

Bills 42, Dolphins 17— Miami went 4-9 after starting season 3-0; they lost their last seven road games, and were 2-6 as road underdogs this year. Dolphins converted 10 of last 50 plays on third down; I’m really not sure why they’re so committed to Tannehill as their QB.

Buffalo is 8-4 in its last dozen games with Miami, winning six of last seven series games played here; they outgained Dolphins 796-400 in two meetings this season, but split the games.

Steelers 16, Bengals 13— Pittsburgh misses playoff for first time in five years; they lost four of their last six games- four of their last five games were decided by exactly three points.

Bengals were one of six teams not to score an offensive TD this week; Cincy lost nine of its last 11 games, missing playoffs for third year in row. Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.

Chargers 23, Broncos 9— 12-4 Chargers didn’t win AFC West, so they’re going to Baltimore for first-round playoff game this week; they were upset 22-10 at home by Ravens in Week 16. LA won five of its last six games overall. Chargers are 7-0 outside of LA this season.

Denver finishes with consecutive losing season for first time since 70’s; have to think they’re going to be changing head coaches this winter.

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24— Seahawks won six of last seven games, will visit Dallas in most interesting of the four playoff games next week; their last seven games with Arizona were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Cardinals had won their last three visits to Seattle.

There are rumors that Arizona will fire HC Wilks after only one year; would be second year in row that the coach QB Josh Rosen played for got fired— his coach at UCLA (Jim Mora) got the boot after last season. Redbirds should hire a QB guru to tutor young Rosen.

Arizona gets the #1 pick in drat for first time since 1958, when they were based in Chicago; that year, Redbirds took QB King Hill with first pick- he started only 29 games in 12 years, and most of those were for the Eagles.

Rams 48, 49ers 32— 49ers turned ball over on their first three drives; on their first two drives, Rams started on SF 7 and SF 13-yard line, scoring TD’s both times. 49ers went 0-8 on road this year for first time since 1979, the year the Rams made Super Bowl for the first time.

LA gets a first-round bye and will host a playoff game on January 12th, a Saturday night.

Lions 31, Packers 0— Six highest-paid QB’s in the NFL missed playoffs this year:
— Aaron Rodgers: $33.5M
— Matt Ryan: $30M
— Kirk Cousins: $28M
— Jimmy Garoppolo: $27.5M
— Matthew Stafford: $27M
— Derek Carr: $25M

Chiefs 35, Raiders 3— Oakland was 12-4 only two years ago, but things change quickly in the NFL- they went 10-22 the last two seasons. If I was paying a coach $100M over ten years, I’d have expected more than a 4-12 first season. Here is the draft order for April’s draft:

1) Cardinals
2) 49ers
3) Jets
4) Raiders
5) Buccaneers
6) Giants

Panthers 33, Saints 14— The game meant nothing for New Orleans and it showed, since Drew Brees was in street clothes. Teddy Bridgewater is a free agent this winter, so the game meant a lot to him; have feeling he’ll be a starter somewhere in NFL next season.

Carolina snapped a 7-game skid here; Ron Rivera will return as coach next season. Had they lost this game, Panthers would’ve been first team ever to finish season 6-10 after having been 6-2.

**Udog** · 12-31-2018, 07:57 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, December 31

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MARSHALL (7 - 5) at VIRGINIA (11 - 0) - 12/31/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) in road games since 1997.
MARSHALL is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CREIGHTON (9 - 4) at PROVIDENCE (10 - 3) - 12/31/2018, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CREIGHTON is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PROVIDENCE is 3-3 against the spread versus CREIGHTON over the last 3 seasons
PROVIDENCE is 3-3 straight up against CREIGHTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MONMOUTH (0 - 12) at PENNSYLVANIA (10 - 3) - 12/31/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENNSYLVANIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MONMOUTH is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 102-136 ATS (-47.6 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 102-136 ATS (-47.6 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENNSYLVANIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MONMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
PENNSYLVANIA is 1-0 straight up against MONMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MONTANA ST (4 - 7) at N ARIZONA (2 - 9) - 12/31/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTANA ST is 132-168 ATS (-52.8 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
MONTANA ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1997.
N ARIZONA is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
N ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against MONTANA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WEBER ST (7 - 5) at IDAHO (3 - 9) - 12/31/2018, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
IDAHO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 2-1 against the spread versus WEBER ST over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO is 2-1 straight up against WEBER ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IDAHO ST (5 - 5) at E WASHINGTON (2 - 10) - 12/31/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO ST is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
E WASHINGTON is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
E WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
E WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
E WASHINGTON is 39-67 ATS (-34.7 Units) in December games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
E WASHINGTON is 2-1 against the spread versus IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
E WASHINGTON is 3-0 straight up against IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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N COLORADO (7 - 5) at PORTLAND ST (5 - 6) - 12/31/2018, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N COLORADO is 3-0 against the spread versus PORTLAND ST over the last 3 seasons
N COLORADO is 3-0 straight up against PORTLAND ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MONTANA (8 - 4) at SOUTHERN UTAH (5 - 5) - 12/31/2018, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN UTAH is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTANA is 3-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN UTAH over the last 3 seasons
MONTANA is 3-0 straight up against SOUTHERN UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-31-2018, 08:01 AM

NCAAB

Monday, December 31

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Marshall @ Virginia
Marshall
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marshall's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marshall's last 7 games on the road
Virginia
Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monmouth @ Pennsylvania
Monmouth
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Monmouth's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Monmouth's last 6 games on the road
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Pennsylvania is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Centenary (NJ) @ UMBC
Centenary (NJ)
No trends to report
UMBC
No trends to report

Hartford @ Boston College
Hartford
No trends to report
Boston College
Boston College is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Boston College is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Chestnut Hill @ Maryland-Eastern Shore
Chestnut Hill
No trends to report
Maryland-Eastern Shore
No trends to report

NJIT @ Duquesne
NJIT
No trends to report
Duquesne
Duquesne is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Duquesne is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Oberlin @ Kent State
Oberlin
No trends to report
Kent State

Kent State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kent State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

North Greenville @ South Carolina
North Greenville
No trends to report
South Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of South Carolina's last 10 games

UNC Asheville @ Vanderbilt
UNC Asheville
No trends to report
Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 5 games
Vanderbilt is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Montana State @ Northern Arizona
Montana State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montana State's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montana State's last 7 games on the road
Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Montana State
Northern Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montana State

Texas Lutheran @ Sam Houston State
Texas Lutheran
No trends to report
Sam Houston State
No trends to report

Albany @ Niagara
Albany
No trends to report
Niagara
Niagara is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Niagara is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Creighton @ Providence
Creighton
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Creighton's last 8 games when playing Providence
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Creighton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Providence
Providence
Providence is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Providence's last 8 games when playing Creighton

Weber State @ Idaho
Weber State
Weber State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Weber State's last 13 games on the road
Idaho
Idaho is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Weber State
Idaho is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Weber State

Idaho State @ Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Idaho State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Eastern Washingto
Idaho State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Eastern Washington
Eastern Washington is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Idaho State
Eastern Washington is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Idaho State

Northern Colorado @ Portland State
Northern Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Colorado's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland State
Portland State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland State's last 5 games when playing at home against Northern Colorado
Portland State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

Alabama A&M @ Pepperdine
Alabama A&M
No trends to report
Pepperdine
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pepperdine's last 5 games
Pepperdine is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Montana @ Southern Utah
Montana
Montana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Southern Utah
Montana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern Utah
Southern Utah
Southern Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 6 games when playing Montana

Cal State-Bakersfield @ Gonzaga
Cal State-Bakersfield
Cal State-Bakersfield is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cal State-Bakersfield is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Gonzaga is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-31-2018, 08:21 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, December 31

Monmouth @ Pennsylvania

Game 755-756
December 31, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Monmouth
41.180
Pennsylvania
58.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pennsylvania
by 17 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pennsylvania
by 14
134
Dunkel Pick:
Pennsylvania
(-14); Over

Marshall @ Virginia

Game 751-752
December 31, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
50.639
Virginia
66.582
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia
by 16
124
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia
by 20
136
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(+20); Under

Montana State @ Northern Arizona

Game 757-758
December 31, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana State
41.183
Northern Arizona
39.706
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montana State
by 1 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Arizona
by 1
158 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montana State
(+1); Under

Creighton @ Providence

Game 753-754
December 31, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Creighton
64.240
Providence
61.899
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Creighton
by 2 1/2
128
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Providence
by 1
151 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Creighton
(+1); Under

Idaho State @ East Washington

Game 761-762
December 31, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Idaho State
44.791
East Washington
56.562
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
East Washington
by 12
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
East Washington
by 2 1/2
146
Dunkel Pick:
East Washington
(-2 1/2); Over

Weber State @ Idaho

Game 759-760
December 31, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Weber State
48.725
Idaho
47.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Weber State
by 1
134
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Weber State
by 6 1/2
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Idaho
(+6 1/2); Under

Northern Colorado @ Portland St

Game 763-764
December 31, 2018 @ 5:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Colorado
53.112
Portland St
47.967
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Colorado
by 5
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Colorado
by 2 1/2
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northern Colorado
(-2 1/2); Under

Montana @ Southern Utah

Game 765-766
December 31, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana
53.994
Southern Utah
47.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montana
by 6
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montana
by 9 1/2
140
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Utah
(+9 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 12-31-2018, 08:37 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 31

Marshall lost four of its last six games, is 7-5 vs schedule #152- they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 37-1-24 points and 76-72 home win vs #84 Hofstra. Thundering Herd is experience team #151 that is playing pace #7- they force turnovers 23.9% of time (#18), but their defensive eFG% is #213. Virginia plays slowest tempo in country, is 11-0 vs schedule #270; Cavaliers are experience team #209 that has #7 eFG% defense- teams are shooting only 24.4% on arc against them, worst in country. Virginia held its last four opponents to 52 or fewer points.

Providence is 9-4 vs Creighton in Big East play; teams split last six meetings, trading wins in last two Big East tourneys. Bluejays are 1-4 at Providence, with losses by 13-12-4-14 points. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. Creighton is 2-3 in its last five games; Bluejays are experience team #293 that is 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with best wins over Clemson/ETSU- they’re shooting 43.1% on arc (#5), have best eFG% (60.9%) in country. Friars won seven of last eight games but hasn’t played in 10 days; they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by 19 to Michigan.

Penn beat Monmouth 101-96 in 4 OT’s LY, in epic game where both teams took 50+ FT’s and Penn blew 15-point 2nd half lead (Hawks led by 5 in 4th OT). Quakers got crushed 77-45 at Toledo Saturday, snapping their 5-game win streak; Penn is 9-3 vs schedule #141- they’re experience team #79 that already has wins over Miami, Villanova. Monmouth is 0-12 vs #46 schedule; they’ve scored 60+ points only once in last six games. Hawks are experience team #259 that is shooting 24.5% on arc (#351), turning ball over 22.8% of time (#327).

Montana State/Northern Arizona split their last ten meetings; Bobcats are 2-3 in last five visits to Flagstaff. MSU won three of last four games after an 0-6 start vs D-I teams; Bobcats are #55 experience team that won its Big Sky opener by 30 at So Utah Saturday, making 13-26 on arc in its first win in six true road games. State scored 81+ points in all three of its D-I wins. NAU lost its last eight games, is 2-9 vs schedule #157- Lumberjacks are experience team #322 that is 2-4 vs teams ranked outside top 200- their last win was November 14 at Omaha.

Idaho is 4-2 vs Weber State in Big Sky play, winning all three meetings in Moscow, by 2-4-5 points- home side won five of the six meetings. Wildcats are 5-5 vs schedule #165, winning Big Sky opener by 12 at EWU; Weber is 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, winning by 8-14-12 points. Idaho lost its last five games, is 1-5 vs schedule #287; Vandals are experience team #341 that forces fewest turnovers in country (12.7% of time). Idaho is 6-34 on arc in its last couple games; they lost conference opener by 17 at home to Idaho State Saturday.

Eastern Washington won 14 of last 16 games with Idaho State, winning last three by 7-12-5 points; Bengals lost 13 of last 14 visits to EWU, winning 75-71 (+10) here three years ago. ISU is 3-5 vs schedule #55; they’re experience team #71 that won its Big Sky opener by 17 at Idaho on Saturday. State is 3-4 in true road games, with wins at Boise State/Santa Clara. EWU is 1-10 vs schedule #20; Eagles lost last seven D-I games, are shooting 29.7% outside arc (#305), 44.4% inside arc (#312). EWU is experience team #238 whose only D-I win was Nov 17.

Northern Colorado won its last three games vs Portland State, by 14-3-7 points; Bears are 3-2 in last five visits here, winning 73-59/85-78 in last two. NCU lost four of last five games, but won Big Sky opener by 5 in Sacramento Saturday; Bears are experience team #262 that doesn’t sub a lot (bench minutes #331)- are 5-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with only loss on a neutral floor to SIU-E last week. Portland State lost its last three games, by 19-27-5 points; they haven’t played in 11 days. Vikings are 0-6 vs top 200 teams, are shooting 21.4% on arc, worst in country.

Montana is 10-0 vs Southern Utah last six years, winning all five visits here, by 12-8-17-15-30 points. Grizzlies are 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, winning by 7-27-7-13 points; they’re experience team #13 that is 6-4 vs schedule #70- they’re playing slow (#302) tempo so far this season. SUU lost five of last six D-I games, losing last two games by 42-30 points- they’re #232 experience team that is turning ball over 20.2% of time, shooting only 58.1% on foul line (#349). Thunderbirds have been without UNLV transfer Morgan the last eight games.

**Udog** · 12-31-2018, 05:43 PM

Hot & Not Report
YouWager

After skipping last week's piece for the holidays, I'm back with one more final Hot or Not piece for 2018. I would like to wish all of you a Happy New Year out there, but a flip of the calendar means college basketball conference play has arrived. I thought it would be best to take another look at the CBB landscape one final time for 2018 before these teams get locked into two months of conference play and rivalry angles etc coming into play.

So here is a look at a few of the current Top 25 ranked teams that have been great on or against bets during the non-conference slate of their schedule. Will these teams stay on these streaks now that conference play has arrived?

Who's Hot

Top 25 teams from the ACC – Combined 45-23-3 ATS

To have the best teams from the ACC cashing at such a high rate in non-conference play is somewhat expected as it tends to be the deepest conference every year, but it's also a run that I can assure you won't last now that conference games are here.

The ACC currently has six teams in the AP Top 25 – Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and NC State – and only FSU enters the new year with a losing ATS record (5-6-1 ATS). Four of the other five schools -everyone but North Carolina – have at least eight ATS victories and are cashing at least 66% of the time. That's rather impressive when you think about it, because it's the Duke's of the world that get saddled with inflated spreads to cover more often than not, and the Blue Devils are up there amongst the leaders at 8-4 ATS.

However, the issue here now becomes the fact that with many of these top ACC teams covering the spreads at a high rate, handicapping ACC games when these schools are up against each other becomes that much tougher. Spreads will be tougher to decipher in a Duke/Virginia game and it may be all about situational analysis and who's coming off what, or have so-and-so on deck.

There still might be a clear class distinction within the ACC Conference between these teams currently ranked and those currently not – six of nine non-ranked ACC programs have losing ATS records overall – but it's those games between powerhouses from this conference where you'll really want to make sure you do your homework going into them.

Who's Not

Top 25 teams from the SEC are basically a coin-flip at 24-22-2 ATS

It appears as though the conference that's getting hit the hardest as being a victim of their own success in the betting markets is the SEC. Their four teams ranked in the Top 25 – Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, and Mississippi State are basically no better than a coin-flip against the spread, and that's with a few of them already being involved in big time matchups so far.

It's been those high profile matchups that have made these SEC teams tough to trust because whether it's during, right before, or right after these games, there tends to be an inexplicable loss mixed in as well.

That hasn't been the case for Tennessee who's only SU defeat came in OT on a neutral floor vs Kansas, so nothing to worry about there. The Volunteers have had their ATS trouble by failing to cover as big favorites – 0-3-1 ATS when favored by 19 or more – as they get those inflated numbers attached to them and can't come through.

For Kentucky it was that embarrassing route at the hands of Duke to open the year that soured many on their early season prognostications, as most of their ATS losses have come as heavy chalk as well. They did manage to beat UNC outright as a small underdog, and with all the talent the Wildcats have from top to bottom, you've got to like their chances of improving their ATS mark significantly over these next two months, especially if the general perception of them is still rather low.

The SEC is a conference that I'd expect to see perhaps double the amount of ranked teams they've got now (4) get invited to the NCAA Tournament come March, so conference play should be where we get to see the overall depth of this conference. That may make for some more ATS losses for these Top 25 teams within the conference, but with Auburn and Mississippi State there as well, I'll be looking to play on these top caliber squads more often than not.

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Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/31

Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/31

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