Announcement

**Udog** · 11-15-2018, 09:43 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to make the NFL playoffs this season:

Chicago Bears -350 (75.2%)

Carolina Panthers -260 (68.4%)

Baltimore Ravens +200 (31.6%)

Cincinnati Bengals +200 (31.6%)

Dallas Cowboys +200 (31.6%)

Atlanta Falcons +300 (23.8%)

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Lot of college basketball games in November are awful; mismatches and teams just scheduling easy wins, but Tuesday I was highly entertained by two excellent games.

Memphis-LSU was great entertainment; Penny Hardaway will build a power with the Tigers, and LSU has a strong young team, also. Both teams played fast and played well.

Georgetown-Illinois was fun to watch; Illini PG got a concussion during the afternoon walk-thru and didn’t play, which brings up a pet peeve of mine.

12) Some coaches are insane; they have these “walk-thrus” on game day but there are guys who turn them into practices— put it this way, you can’t get a concussion while walking. Having a practice on game day takes energy away from the game, which is all that matters. Getting your point guard hurt during a practice on game day is bleeping stupid.

Patrick Ewing’s team has upgraded its talent in his second year on the job, but they got a gift here when the other team’s point guard got hurt.

11) Draymond Green’s one-game suspension cost him $120,000, which is pocket change to Green, but the public nature of it makes it way more significant than that. Green has been the heart of this Warrior dynasty; the most important player isn’t always the best player.

10) Chiefs-Rams line is now 3.5, moving up from 2 or 2.5 when game was scheduled to be played in Mexico City. Total doesn’t seem to have moved, staying at 63.5, the highest NFL total ever.

9) Michigan 73, Villanova 46— Some alum gave Villanova so much money they named their gym after him, then they had FS1 interview him during the game. Too bad he couldn’t play; Michigan avenged (somewhat) their loss to Villanova in the national title game last April.

This game was 44-17 at halftime. Wow.

8) SEC decided to make Nashville the permanent home of its conference basketball tourney, signing a deal to keep the event in Music City thru 2035.

7) IUPUI 76, Boston College 69— Jaguars from the Horizon League were 16-point underdogs; a 6-3 guard named Camron Justice torched the Eagles for 29 points.

6) Magic 111, 76ers 106— Philly led by 16 early in 4th quarter, losing Jimmy Butler’s debut with the 76ers. Orlando is 7-8 and appears to be an improved team- their last winning season was seven years ago.

5) Timberwolves 107, Pelicans 100— Minnesota’s first game with Saric/Covington; from this point on, their record will be measured against Philly, because of the big trade.

4) Pistons 106, Raptors 104— Reggie Bullock scored on an out-of-bounds play at the buzzer as Dwane Casey won his return to Toronto after the Raptors fired him last spring, despite a regular season record of 320-238 (21-30 in playoffs).

3) Radford 63, Notre Dame 60— Not as big an upset as we’d think; Radford won the Big South LY, won a play-in game, then lost to Villanova in NCAA’s. Highlanders were only a 12.5-point underdog; they’re in top 20 nationally in experience, top 50 in minutes continuity and they play a slow tempo, so they’re hard to guard.

2) Singer Billy Idol became a US citizen this week; good to see people who are so happy when they become citizens. This country was built by immigrants, something we shouldn’t forget.

1) NFL flexed the Steelers-Raiders game out of the Sunday night slot on December 9 (Week 14) and instead will show Rams-Bears on NBC. Should be nice and balmy in Chicago for a night game on December 9th. Do they think of the fans in Chicago who pay to go to these games?

**Udog** · 11-15-2018, 09:48 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 15

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GOLDEN STATE (12 - 3) at HOUSTON (6 - 7) - 11/15/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 109-145 ATS (-50.5 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
HOUSTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-6 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 11) at DENVER (9 - 5) - 11/15/2018, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (7 - 6) at LA CLIPPERS (8 - 5) - 11/15/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1053-926 ATS (+34.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 341-281 ATS (+31.9 Units) in the first half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 218-154 ATS (+48.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 145-111 ATS (+22.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 4-3 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 15

Curry is out, Green is back for Warriors. Golden State split its last four games (1-3 vs spread); they’re 4-2 on road, 2-4 as AF. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Rockets won five of last seven games after a 1-5 start; Houston is 1-4 at home, 1-4 as HF. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Golden State/Houston split their last ten meetings; Warriors are 3-3 vs spread in their last six visits here. Seven of last eight series games stayed under the total.

Atlanta lost its last five games but covered four of last six games; Hawks are 1-7 on road, 4-4 as AU. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Nuggets lost their last four games after a 9-1 start; Denver is 6-3 at home, 4-4 as HF. Under is 9-4-1 in their games this season. Hawks won seven of last nine games with Denver; they covered four of last five visits here. Last three series games stayed under the total.

San Antonio lost four of its last five games; they’re 2-4 on road, 1-2 as AU. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Clippers won four of their last five games; they’re 6-1 at home, 3-0 vs spread as HF. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Clippers/Spurs split their last ten games; San Antonio is 1-3 vs spread in last four series games played here. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

NBA

Thursday, November 15

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Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Golden State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games at home
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Denver is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Atlanta

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games
San Antonio is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
San Antonio is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 9 games
LA Clippers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio

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**Udog** · 11-15-2018, 12:46 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 15

Golden State @ Houston

Game 501-502
November 15, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
125.679
Houston
119.515
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+3 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Denver

Game 503-504
November 15, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
109.980
Denver
120.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 10
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 13
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+13); Over

San Antonio @ LA Clippers

Game 505-506
November 15, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
111.828
LA Clippers
123.845
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 12
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-15-2018, 12:52 PM

Inside the Paint - Thursday
Chris David

Before we break down Thursday’s three-game card, let’s recap yesterday’s action and offer congratulations to bettors who took the points. Underdogs produced a 6-5 record both straight up and against the spread and those results included some healthy money-line tickets and improbable rallies.

Detroit (+425) trailed by as many as 19 points on Wednesday to Toronto but the club somehow found its stride and earned a 106-104 road win on a buzzer beater. Pistons head coach Dwane Casey was certainly satisfied to defeat his former team.

Another top contender in the East went down as well last night as Memphis (+450) caught Milwaukee, who was caught sleeping in its first game at home after a long road trip. The Grizzlies held on for a 116-113 decision and bettors on the ‘under’ (212 ½) probably weren’t happy as the pair combined for 136 points in the second-half after the game was tied 45-45 at halftime.

In the Western Conference, both the Mavericks (+5) and Suns (+6) captured victories as home ‘dogs over the Jazz and Spurs respectively. Also, the Jimmy Butler era in Philadelphia started with a loss as the Magic (+5 ½) rallied past the 76ers 111-106 by outscoring them 35-19 in the fourth quarter.

Total bettors watched the ‘under’ go 7-4.

(Straight Up – SU, Against the Spread – ATS)

Game of the Night (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Golden State (12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Houston (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

We haven’t even finished a quarter of the season and the NBA ‘drama’ level has already reached full capacity, especially with these West Coast clubs. NBA senior writer and handciapper Tony Mejia weighed in on the latest from Golden State.

Mejia said, "Word on the street is that the Warriors were going to ensure Kevin Durant and Draymond Green hashed things out on the flight from Oakland to Houston, so we’re going to see a fired up group take the floor for this first meeting with the Rockets since Game 7 of May’s Western Conference finals. Since Stephen Curry is going to be out for another 10 days, it’s going to be on Durant and Green to figure things out alongside Klay Thompson like they were managing the other night in a competitive, fiery game against the Clippers."

"Without Curry to spread the floor and quicken the pace, I think we’re likely to see more of a grinder since Steve Kerr is likely to start with Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell up front with his feuding forwards before working Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston in to match up with Houston likely to go small. The Rockets have held five of their last six opponents under 100 points and clearly have placed a premium on improving defensively following their slow start by re-hiring assistant Jeff Bzdelik and essentially firing Carmelo Anthony. The Warriors held Houston under 100 points in the last five games of last year’s playoff series after only doing so once in the previous nine meetings between the teams. I’m curious to see where this total opens and I anticipate it will likely be around 220 without Curry. Golden State’s lowest total of the season closed 218 at Utah (Oct. 19) while the last 11 Rockets’ totals have closed at 223 or lower."

Mejia was on target with the total of 220. For the side, oddsmakers opened the game pick ‘em but the early money has pushed Houston up to -3 over Golden State. The Warriors haven’t closed as underdogs this season and as bad as the drama appears, bettors focus on results and the Warriors remain slight profitable.

On the road, Golden State has gone 4-2 (2-4 ATS) and the two losses could’ve gone the other way as they dropped a 100-98 decision at Denver before last Monday’s 121-116 overtime loss to the Clippers at the Staples Center. Either way, Golden State is still a formidable opponent even without Curry.

Houston has been dealing with its own ‘in-house’ drama as well and a 6-7 start wasn’t expected, especially for a team coming off a 65-17 campaign last season. Despite the rough beginning, the Rockets have been in better form and have gone 5-2 (4-3 ATS) in their last seven games. What’s impressive about the recent run is six games were played on the road. At home, Houston started 0-4 but it captured its last outing at the Toyota Center with a 115-103 win over Indiana last Sunday.

In Golden State’s win over Houston in last year’s Western Conference Finals, the point-spread didn’t matter in any of the seven games. The Warriors went 2-2 both SU and ATS in their four trips to Houston in the series. The ‘under’ went 6-1 and the totals ranged from 227 to 208, the latter occurring in Game 7.

After this game, the Warriors will finish off their Texas road trip with games at Dallas and San Antonio this weekend. Meanwhile, Houston has a great chance to go on a run and it should be favored in its next six games.

Atlanta (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Denver (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Tough game to handicap and it’s hard to make a case for Denver, who has dropped four straight games yet its listed as a double-digit home favorite (-13). Will the Nuggets finally turn things around and run somebody? Knowing Denver heads on the road for three games against the Pelicans, Bucks and Timberwolves, this certainly needs to be a ‘get right’ game for the club.

Even though the Hawks have struggled to a 1-7 record away from home, they have shown some fight recently and they’ve covered three straight games as road underdogs, two of them coming on their current West Coast trip.

Surprisingly, the Nuggets own the best ‘under’ record (9-4-1) in the NBA but all four ‘over’ winners did come at home. Watching Denver this season, you can see that it hasn’t been able to fill the scoring void of Wilson Chandler (76ers) or Will Barton (injury) at this time. Atlanta started the season on a 6-3 ‘over’ run but the ‘under’ has connected in four of its last five and the offense (105.4 PPG) hasn’t been connecting during this recent span.

For what it’s worth, the Hawks have gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six encounters against the Nuggets. Atlanta has won its previous three games played at the Pepsi Center and it’s scored 119, 109 and 110 in those road victories.

San Antonio (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Los Angeles opened as a five-point home favorite for this contest and that’s the second largest number of points that it’s laying this season. I wouldn’t say the team has overachieved because it has a lot of “B” players on the squad, but recent overtime wins over Milwaukee (128-126) and Golden State (121-116) were impressive. Winning at home has been a large part of their success, with the Clippers going 6-1 both SU and ATS at home. They haven’t lost at the Staples Center since opening night and this will be the last home game before they head to the East Coast for three straight games.

San Antonio enters this game off back-to-back losses as road favorites, which includes an embarrassing 20-point setback (116-96) last night in Phoenix. Including that loss, the Spurs are 2-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season. This will be the second back-to-back spot that the Spurs will face this season. In the first situation with no rest, San Antonio dropped a 117-110 home decision to Orland on Nov. 4 as a 7 ½-point home favorite.

If you believe the Spurs will come to play and finish off their road trip with a solid effort, then a lean to the money-line (+185) might be better suited. The spread hasn’t mattered for either San Antonio as an underdog or Los Angeles as a favorite this season. When the Clippers win, they’ve covered and when the Spurs haven’t been able to sneak in a cover in any losses as ‘dogs.

Last season, the home team won all three meetings with San Antonio notching a pair of double-digit wins (120-107, 109-91) at the AT&T Center while Los Angeles captured a close call (113-110) from the Staples Center.

TNT will provide national coverage on this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.

**Udog** · 11-15-2018, 01:56 PM

Hoop Trends - Thursday
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Clippers are 8-0 ATS (+10.81 ppg) with rest off a game as a dog when they are at the end of a three game home stand and it is before the All-Star break.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Warriors are 0-18 ATS (-11.75 ppg) as a road dog with rest off a home game when the line is at least ten points higher than their last game and it is before the All-Star break.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

-- The Nuggets are 14-0 OU (+13.96 ppg) at home off a loss as a favorite facing an opponent averaging at least 15 turnovers per game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

-- The Rockets are 0-14 OU (-17.75 ppg) at home off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than five blocks per game.

**Udog** · 11-16-2018, 12:40 AM

By: Monty Andrews

Key players might be missing for Ole Miss

The Ole Miss Rebels could be without two of their top offensive weapons for Saturday's matchup with host Vanderbilt. Running back Scottie Phillips will be a game-time decision with an ankle injury; the junior standout has 927 rushing yards and 12 scores on the ground so far this season. Rebels wideout Braylon Sanders joins Phillips on the questionable list after missing Wednesday's practice with a bum ankle. Sanders has been inconsistent this season but erupted for 133 receiving yards and a touchdown on four catches in a Week 2 win over Southern Illinois.

With neither player expected to be 100 percent, Ole Miss' depth will be tested. Given that the Rebels are just 5-12 ATS in the past 17 meetings, we like the home team to cover the modest -3 spread.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/15

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/15

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