The Bum's 2018 NBA Trends/Stats/Best Bets Thru The Playoffs !

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Durant travels with Warriors to Toronto
May 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Kevin Durant is traveling with the Golden State Warriors to Toronto for the first two games of the NBA Finals, leaving open the chance he could be ready to return from a strained right calf in time for Game 2.

Durant, the two-time reigning Finals MVP who has missed the past five games since getting hurt in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals against Houston, has already been ruled out for Game 1 on Thursday night.

As of Tuesday, when Golden State held an optional practice before flying, he had yet to do any full-speed work on the court. He has done some shooting, coach Steve Kerr said.

''If he did anything on the court, it would have been pretty light,'' Kerr said.

Warriors spokesman Raymond Ridder confirmed Durant was on the two-time defending champions' team plane that took off early afternoon West Coast time and landed late in Canada.

There will be two full days off before Game 2 on Sunday, giving Durant time to get further on-court work done that the Warriors would need to see before he is medically cleared.

''We'll see where it goes from here,'' Kerr said Monday. ''This is where the fact that there's a lot of days in between games during the finals helps us, so we'll see.''

Durant didn't travel to Houston for Game 6 of that round or to Portland for the two road games against the Trail Blazers in the Western Conference finals. He remained in the Bay Area to rehab, and the Warriors are unbeaten without him.

An impending free agent this summer, he was hurt May 8 when he landed awkwardly on his right foot following a baseline jumper late in the third quarter of a 104-99 victory over the Rockets at Oracle Arena. Durant is averaging 34.2 points per game this postseason.

Kerr said Durant has been spending countless hours rehabbing to recover - hoping to get back soon to what he loves most.

''You get that fear of missing out on stuff, like practices and shootarounds and new game plans and stuff like that. That's what I miss the most, obviously, grinding on the court individually and with my team. But that's out of my hands. Out of my control,'' Durant said Friday.

''My task is to try to conquer this, and I think that's the journey (we're) on as basketball players. So I'm pretty much down for anything but I'm excited that I'm making progress.''

Center DeMarcus Cousins, out with a torn left quadriceps muscle he injured in Game 2 of the first round against the Clippers, hadn't been ruled out for Game 1 though Kerr mentioned the magnitude of coming back on the finals stage after so much missed time.

Cousins - in his first career postseason - scrimmaged Saturday and again Monday, a sign of progress he is closer to being ready.

''I feel better each and every day. That's my whole goal, to make sure I get better with each day that comes,'' Cousins said last week. ''Hopefully, that opportunity comes, and I'm able to get on the floor and help my teammates and try to help them win a championship.''

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Game 1 Props - Best Bets
May 29, 2019
By VI News

Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals tips off Thursday and bettors will have plenty of opportunities to cash tickets on the best-of-seven series between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors.

Along with your basic side and total wagers, all sportsbooks are offering up “Proposition Wagers” or “Props” for each game of the series.

Similar to our predictions for each round, our trio of NBA experts will be offering up their Best Prop Bets for each game.

Based on a five-unit bankroll for each game, their top plays are listed below for the opener between Toronto and Golden State.

Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag

Chris David

2 Units - Over Kyle Lowry Total Assists 6.5 (+100)

Lowry averaged 8.7 assists in the regular season and that number has dropped to 6.4 assists in the postseason, which isn’t surprising since the pace isn’t as fast. His assists average has been pushed up to 6.7 in 10 home playoff games as the point guard has become more of a distributor. I expect him to take on that role again in the opener and get his teammates going. Make a note that in the two games against Golden State in the regular season, Lowry averaged 12 assists in those wins as Toronto averaged 122 points per game.

2 Units - Under Klay Thompson Total 3 Point Field Goals 3.5 (-145)

Depite not earning a spot on any of this year's all-NBA team this season, you can certainly see Thompson's worth to the Warriors in the playoffs. In four postseason losses, he averaged 16.5 points per game and only connected on eight 3-pointers in those games. In the 12 wins, he put up 19.9 PPG and hit 38 bombs from distance for an average of 3.2 per game. While Klay has the ability to hit this ‘over’ within minutes, I’m leaning to Toronto in the opener and in losses this season, Thompson is only shooting 35 percent from 3-point land. For what it’s worth, in two games versus the Raptors, he was 3-of-14 (21%) from distance.

1 Units - Under Marc Gasol Total Points 9.5 (-130)

The former Memphis Grizzlies standout will get his first taste of the NBA Finals and unfortunately for the veteran, I don’t believe he’ll be a factor in this series because the Warriors tend to go small and he would be exposed defensively. He received plenty of minutes vs. the big men of the 76ers (Embiid) and Bucks (Lopez) but against an athletic Orlando team, he was limited and only scored double figures in one of five games versus the Magic. Barring a hot shooting night, I don’t see the veteran cracking double digits on Thursday.

Kevin Rogers

3 Units - Over Draymond Green Total Rebounds 9.5 (-165)

For nine consecutive games, Green has pulled down at least 10 rebounds, including a total of 27 rebounds in the final two wins of the Portland series. Green didn't grab double-digit rebounds for the first five games of the opening round against the Clippers, but has grabbed nine boards or more in 11 straight games. Green has amassed at least eight rebounds in six consecutive playoff series openers, so laying the juice here for him to compile at least 10 rebounds isn't far-fetched.

2 Units - Under Kawhi Leonard Total Points 30.5 (-115)

Leonard has carried the Raptors to their first ever NBA Finals appearance, but the Toronto forward has scored 19 and 27 points in his last two home games. Golden State's defense has been solid in series openers this postseason by allowing 104 points or less in each victory as the Warriors will try to limit Leonard's production. Leonard's road scoring numbers in the playoffs have been higher than at home so we'll take the opportunity to back the 'under' here.

Tony Mejia

3 Units - Over Draymond Green Points, Rebounds and assists 30.5 (-110)

With Kevin Durant still out and DeMarcus Cousins likely to be worked into the mix slowly, my NBA Finals MVP pick will have a heavy workload ahead of him if he's gong to help the Warriors pick up at least a split of the action in Toronto. He's not going to look to score much, but should do enough to pick up a triple-double in Game 1, eclipsing this number rather easily. My one concern is his landing in early foul trouble, but he's done a nice job of controlling his temper and stepping up and staying on the floor since Durant went down.

2 Units - Over Marc Gasol Total Assists 3.5 (+110)

Although the Bucks often wound up double-teaming Kawhi Leonard using his defender, the Warriors aren't likely to leave him wide open in this series opener. A willing passer, look for Gasol to try and get teammates off whenever possible in this Game 1, which will lead to him picking up at least four dimes by finding teammates at the rim or for open 3-pointers.

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Raptors' Anunoby hopes to return
May 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

TORONTO (AP) Toronto Raptors reserve OG Anunoby hopes to return during the NBA Finals after missing almost seven weeks because of an emergency appendectomy.

Anunoby had surgery April 11, two days before the Raptors opened the first round of the playoffs against Orlando. Over the past few days, he has been taking shots and handling light contact, but he has not yet returned to full practice.

He's been upgraded to questionable for Thursday's series opener against Golden State. On Monday, Raptors coach Nick Nurse said Anunoby was approximately 10 days away from a return.

The forward played in 67 games this season, his second in the NBA. He averaged 7.0 points and 2.9 rebounds.

Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Anunoby said his appendix burst before his surgery, leading to complications because of an infection and slowing his recovery.

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Finals Game 1 - Warriors at Raptors
May 29, 2019
By Tony Mejia

NBA Finals – Game 1
Golden State at Toronto (-1/213.5), ABC, 9:07 p.m. ET

2018-19 Head-to-Head Meetings
Dec. 12 – Raptors (+8) 113 at Warriors 93 (Under 226.5)
Nov. 29 – Raptors (-9.5) 131 vs. Warriors 128, OT (Over 223)

The Warriors are used to taking down the East’s best player in June, having done so three of the past four years against LeBron James.

They’ll now look to handle Kawhi Leonard, who has revenge on his mind and a solid defensive team behind him.

These NBA Finals are expected to wrap up with Golden State celebrating a threepeat and its fourth title in five years, but how we get there remains to be seen. There are variables everywhere, starting with when and if Kevin Durant will return from a calf injury to make a run at a third straight Finals MVP.

As of Wednesday afternoon, betting the Raptors to dethrone the Warriors would yield a return of +250 at the Westgate Superbook and William Hill shops, while Golden State is -300 practically everywhere, with the Golden Nugget still offering -280. The odds would certainly improve if the Raptors are able to hold serve on Thursday night, but if you see this series as a mismatch, those odds may be the best you’ll get the rest of the way if the Warriors are able to win another big playoff game without Durant.

With him officially ruled out of the series opener, the Warriors went from 1-point favorites to 1-points underdogs for a Game 1 that’s essentially a pick’em. On the road without Durant, Golden State appears vulnerable.

The Warriors will have fresher legs since they swept Portland and haven’t taken the court for a taxing game since May 20, but there’s certainly a chance that they’re rusty and struggle to adjust in a building they don’t often visit. The atmosphere is certain to be raucous, but Golden State is certainly accustomed to quieting excited crowds. They’re just not very experienced at having to do so in a series opener, which VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out.

“For only the second time since Steve Kerr took over as head coach of the Warriors in 2014, Golden State will begin a playoff series on the road. The Warriors traveled to Houston to open the Western Conference Finals in 2018 and not only won the opener by 13 points, but closed out the series with a road win in Game 7,” Rogers said. “Golden State owns a perfect 4-0 record in NBA Finals openers the last four seasons, although two of those victories came in overtime. The Raptors have struggled in franchise history in home Game 1’s by compiling a dreadful 2-7 SU/ATS record since 2014, but one of those victories came in the second round this season against Philadelphia.”

The Warriors last played in Toronto back on November 29, losing 131-128 in overtime without Stephen Curry, who missed that game with a groin injury. Durant scored 51 points in the loss, which was one of those early-season games that set the stage for things to come. Curry was back for the blowout loss suffered 13 days later in Oakland but scored just 10 points, so he’s going to need to catch an early rhythm against pesky defenders in Kyle Lowry, Danny Green and Leonard.

Although Toronto swept the season series despite not having the services of Marc Gasol, it had lost 16 of the previous 18 meetings against the Warriors over the previous decade. Golden State hadn’t lost at ScotiaBank Arena (formerly the Air Canada Centre) since 2014 before this season’s meeting, and they’ll be looking to run their road playoff winning streak to four games here.

Without Durant available and DeMarcus Cousins unlikely to play a major role if he does return since he’s had such limited practice time, Draymond Green must stay out of foul trouble in Game 1 since he’ll be counted on to help defend Leonard while also rebounding and leading the break, serving as the point forward to help get Curry and Klay Thompson quality looks from the perimeter. One of the most crucial factors set to unfold in this opener is seeing how he controls his temper considering there are plenty of agitators available in Serge Ibaka, Gasol and Pascal Siakam who will be baiting him in a hostile atmosphere.

The Warriors are going to need the likes of Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell to continue helping Green out in the post, but he’s going to need to be the most productive guy out there. Green has been masterful against Houston and Portland with Durant sidelined, playing the role of conduit to make Golden State tick over thee past few years and must do so again, which makes him my pick for Finals MVP. He’s getting 10-to-1 odds at Sportsbook.ag. Curry is listed as the favorite considering how dominant he was in closing out the Rockets and Trail Blazers, but there’s just not much value in backing the favorite on this type of bet. I’d ride the other Splash Brother over Curry with Klay Thompson yielding a 20-to-1 payout.

If you’re all in on the Raptors, you’re banking on Leonard’s quad and knee holding up, not to mention Siakam’s health continuing to improve. Leonard has been brilliant despite playing through a quad injury that has limited his explosiveness, but avoiding a Game 7 and a return trip to Milwaukee has helped matters and he’s saying all the right things about feeling healthy entering this series. Siakam, Gasol, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Ibaka all stepped up significantly to help put away the Bucks and will be counted on to continue playing well at home in order to get off to a strong start and make this a competitive NBA Finals.

On paper, there’s no reason they shouldn’t hold up against a Durant-less Warriors team if everyone plays to their potential. The pick’em is fair and not a trap line. If Leonard is healthy, he’ll have Green exhausted by game’s end. There’s no question the Toronto frontcourt is deeper and more talented. Can the guards make enough shots and get enough stops against one of the most prolific backcourts the NBA has ever seen? How will the feeling-out process come into play?

The total for Game 1 opened at 215 and the number has dropped to 213 as of Wednesday. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the series opener.

“Total bettors could be scratching their heads in Game 1 since we’ve seen conflicting trends for both clubs in the postseason,” said David. “Golden State has watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 in the playoffs and that includes a 6-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ has gone 12-6 (67%) in 18 postseason games and ten of those contests were played at Scotiabank Arena where the low side went 6-4.

“In the two regular season encounters between the pair, the totals ranged from 223 to 226 ½ and both games had key starters missing and that trend will continue on Thursday with KD out for Golden State. Durant’s absence is worth a few points to the total but it’s apparent that the oddsmakers are respecting the Raptors defense after watching the unit stifle Milwaukee in the East Finals. We’re going to find out very quickly if the inept production from the Bucks was based on the Raptors defense or just poor shooting.”

Pace will play a huge role since Curry and Thompson will let the 3-ball fly whenever they have clean looks to avoid bogging down against the Raptors’ halfcourt defense, but they’re not likely to get away with coming down and consistently launch 30-footers. It will also be interesting to see who comes off utilizing a traditional center first since Andrew Bogut and Damian Jones are available for Steve Kerr to throw out there against Gasol, but both teams will likely employ small-ball looks throughout most of the series. Ibaka was incredibly productive off the bench and was an x-factor in beating the Bucks, while Green, Looney and Bell are all capable of holding down the five-spot to get more shooting on the floor.

“Golden State was ranked first in scoring offense (117.5) on the road this season and that average jumped to 118.8 PPG in eight playoff tilts away from home. In 15 road games versus the East this season, the Warriors averaged 114.8 PPG but they did lay some eggs against playoff teams in losses to the Magic (103-96) and Pistons (111-102),” said David. “Scoring on the Raptors won’t be easy and they’ve been great defensively at home (95.8 PPG) in the postseason albeit against less explosive teams. I believe Toronto will strike first in this series and it’s going to do so with defense, which makes me lean to the ‘under’ in Game 1.”

The Raptors have won five consecutive home games and are 8-2 in Toronto this postseason after going 32-9 during the regular season, the third-best mark in the league. Golden State tied the Bucks for the regular-season’s top road mark and are 6-2 in opposing gyms in these playoffs, beating all of their foes at least once. That’s all it’s going to take to significantly alter this series since it would steal away homecourt advantage with Durant likely to join the party.

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NBA Finals road goes to Canada
May 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

TORONTO (AP) Dynasty versus dinosaurs.

The Golden State Warriors' road to a fifth straight NBA Finals has detoured to a new destination - and this one requires a passport.

The Toronto Raptors, a team that arrived in the NBA 24 years ago as the dinosaur-logoed basketball franchise in a hockey-loving country, have finally made it to the championship round and will host Game 1 on Thursday night.

It's the first time the finals will be played outside the U.S., a refreshing change after a record four straight seasons of the same matchup.

''Different for us obviously, having been in Cleveland four straight years, but this is more the rule. That was the exception,'' Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. ''You're not supposed to go to the finals four straight years and you're definitely not, if you're lucky enough to do that, you're not supposed to play the same team four straight years.

''This is more what the finals normally feel like, where you're going against a team you frankly don't know that well and that you haven't seen that often over the previous few years.''

Stephen Curry lived in Toronto when his father Dell played for the Raptors at the end of his career, but otherwise it's a new feeling even for these Warriors, who are one of the most championship-experienced teams in NBA history.

They joined the Boston Celtics from 1957-66 as the only teams to reach five straight NBA Finals, and are trying to become the first team to win three consecutive titles since the Los Angeles Lakers of 2000-02.

Besides facing a different opponent for the first time during their run, the Warriors won't have the luxury of starting the series at home for the first time. They also won't have Kevin Durant for at least one more game, though none of that rattles a team that has played in 22 finals games in the last four years.

''We have been here before,'' Curry said. ''We understand the hoopla and the pandemonium around the finals and how different things are when it comes to just the schedule and the vibe. So we have seen a lot and we'll be ready for it.''

The Raptors are new to this stage, but their players aren't. Kawhi Leonard was MVP of the 2014 NBA Finals, when he and Danny Green won a title with San Antonio. Serge Ibaka made it to the finals with Oklahoma City in 2012, and even players such as Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol have played in Olympic finals.

''It's just the same basketball game,'' Leonard said. ''It's 5-on-5. It's still two hoops. So you just go out there and play hard and live with the results.''

The Raptors had already moved away from their purple uniforms with the red dinosaur, and their reputation as a loser is extinct, too. They have won 50 games in four straight seasons and have the best record in the East over the last seven, but couldn't get over the hump until this year, thanks largely to the acquisition of Leonard last summer.

He hit the winning shot in Game 7 of the second round and then led Toronto's charge back from a 2-0 deficit against Milwaukee in the conference finals to win four straight against the team with the NBA's best record.

They made history just by bringing the finals to Canada and the doorstep of their rowdy fans in Jurassic Park . But Lowry has more in mind.

''For me it's all about winning, and when you get to the point where you make it to the NBA Finals, you won but you still got more to do,'' he said. ''So getting here doesn't do anything but getting here. We still want to try to win this.''

Some other things to know abou the NBA Finals:

WOUNDED WARRIORS

DeMarcus Cousins (torn left quadriceps) may be ready to return but it could be a little longer for Durant (strained right calf). Kerr said the two-time NBA Finals MVP, already ruled out for Game 1, hasn't practiced and would have to do so before returning.

STRONG STARTERS

Golden State has won 12 straight Game 1s, including all four in the NBA Finals since 2015, and Gasol was asked for Toronto's key to getting the series off to a good start.

''Every possession from the jump ball,'' he said, ''competing, communicating, solving issues as we face them. Do not overreact to whatever.''

ROOKIE RUNS

Kerr won a championship four years ago in his first season as an NBA head coach and now Nick Nurse can do the same. He was promoted last year after the Raptors fired Dwane Casey, and earlier in his career had been a head coach in both the NBA Development League and the British Basketball League.

THREE-PEAT FOR NO. 3?

Another title would be the Warriors' seventh and move them into third place in NBA history behind only the Celtics (17) and Lakers (16).

100 PERCENT

Curry, already the career leading in NBA Finals 3-pointers, needs two more to reach the century mark.

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Thursday’s 6-pack

Matchups for the Gavitt Games this fall:

— Villanova at Ohio State

— Michigan State at Seton Hall

— Creighton at Michigan

— Purdue at Marquette

— Providence at Northwestern

— Penn State at Georgetown

— Minnesota at Butler

— DePaul at Iowa

Quote of the Day
“Courage is not the absence of fear, but the capacity to act despite our fears.”
John McCain

Thursday’s quiz
Which state is known as the Granite State?

Wednesday’s quiz
Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Joe Theismann won Super Bowls playing for Joe Gibbs.

Tuesday’s quiz
Jacob deGrom is a really good pitcher, but the Mets are 16-25 in his last 41 starts.

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Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) One important thing in baseball now is for your starting pitchers to go deeper into games, to take stress off your bullpen. Over the course of a 162-game schedule, you can wear out your bullpen if they get used too much— after all, the starting pitchers are the better pitchers.

So far this season, Angels have only had 10 games where their starter went 6+ innings, but they use the opener a decent amount. John Means lasted six innings Wednesday; it was only the 11th game that Baltimore’s starters lasted 6+ innings

12) Pirates 7, Reds 2— These teams don’t like each other; since 2014, 72 Pirates have been hit by Cincinnati pitchers, 64 Reds have been hit by Pittsburgh hurlers. Six players were hit in the 5-4 Pirates’ win Wednesday.

Eugenio Suarez got drilled on the hand in 8th inning; x-rays came back negative, but Suarez had some words for pitcher Clay Holmes on his way to first base.

11) Cubs starting pitchers gave up 6+ runs four games in a row Saturday-Tuesday, first time they’ve done that since August of 2006.

10) Foul poles at Safeco Field in Seattle are 92 feet high. In case you were wondering.

9) Toronto will host a college basketball tripleheader Nov 16;
— Tennessee-Washington
— Buffalo-Harvard
— Rutgers-St Bonaventure

8) College basketball transfer portal:
— Coppin State transfer Justin Steers bolts to Rider.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Astros put SS Carlos Correa (broken rib) on IL.

6) Houston now has Altuve, Springer, Correa, Diaz all on the IL. Tough times for their training staff. Correa got hurt during a home massage; he broke a rib getting massaged.

5) Top five starting pitchers, if you bet on all their starts:
1. Lucas Giolito CWS (8-2) +$855
2. Clayton Kershaw LA (8-0) +$800
3. Jordan Lyles Pitt (8-2) +$777
4. Matt Shoemaker Tor (5-0) +$673
5. Jose Berrios Minn (9-2) +$671

4) Seven of Notre Dame’s football opponents this fall have a bye week the week before they play the Fighting Irish, first time that has happened to anyone in the last 30 years.

3) Former Bengals’ coach Marvin Lewis has joined Arizona State’s football staff as a special advisor to head coach Herm Edwards. Too bad; Lewis was good on TV doing AAF games and would’ve been a solid TV analyst for NFL games.

2) Blue Jays’ CF Jonathan Davis made one of the best catches you’ll ever see to end the first inning in Tampa Bay last night- it saved two runs, cost Avisail Garcia two RBI.

1) Random thing I learned today: singer Ariana Grande is allergic to tomatoes- she cancelled two shows after having an allergic reaction this week. No pizza for her.

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Trends to Watch - Game 1

-- The home team has gone 19-3 straight up in Game 1 of the last 22 NBA Finals.

-- Twelve of the last 15 victories have come by double digits.

-- The ‘under’ has gone 10-4-1 in the last 15 openers and is 14-7-1 in the previous 22.

-- In the last 22 years, we've only seen both teams score triple digits three times in Game 1 and all of those games went to overtime.

-- Toronto has gone 1-2 both straight up and against the spread in Game 1 of this year's playoffs, with two of the games played at Scotiabank Arena.

-- The Raptors are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread at home in this year's playoffs.

-- Golden State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in series openers, all decisions coming at home. In the first road game of a series in this year's playoffs, it has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS.

-- Overall, the Warriors have gone 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road in this year's postseason.

Listed below are the past 22 openers in the NBA Finals, with total results.

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NBA Finals: Warriors vs Raptors series preview, odds and best bets
Rohit Ponnaiya

Kawhi Leonard has led the Toronto Raptors to their first NBA Finals appearance but they're +230 underdogs to win the title against the Golden State Warriors.

The Golden State Warriors shoot for their third championship in a row as they head to Toronto to play the Raptors in Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals.

The Warriors will need to get through at least the first few games of the series without the Finals MVP of the last two years in Kevin Durant. The Raptors are making their first finals appearance, have an entire nation rooting for them and are led by 2014 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard.

We break down the series odds and give you in-depth trends and notes so you can make the best bets for this best-of-seven battle.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS TORONTO RAPTORS

Series Winner Odds: Golden State -304/Toronto +230

Regular Season Head to Head: Toronto 2-0

Game 1: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON - Thursday, May 30, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 2: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON - Sunday, June 2, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 3: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA - Wednesday, June 5, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 4: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA - Friday, June 7, 9:00 p.m. ET
*Game 5: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON - Mon, June 10, 9:00 p.m. ET
*Game 6: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA - Thur, June 13, 9:00 p.m. ET
*Game 7: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON Sun, June 16, 8:00 p.m. ET

* If Necessary

BACKGROUND

The Raptors won both games in the head-to-head during the regular season but don't expect that to count for much this series, the Warriors have been notoriously laid back during the regular season for the past few years before turning their intensity up for the playoffs. On top of that, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green missed the first game while Leonard sat out the second.

The Warriors are coming off a four game sweep of the Blazers in the Western Conference Finals, after being taken to six games by the Clippers and Rockets. They will be without Kevin Durant for at least the first game of the series and possibly longer than that. KD has been the Finals MVP for the last two years and was leading the Warriors in scoring with 34.2 ppg in the playoffs before a calf injury against the Rockets. However, in his absence Golden State has gone 6-0 while Curry and Green have dominated with the ball in their hands more often.

Many counted out the Raptors when they fell behind two games to nothing against the Bucks after getting clobbered by 22 points in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Raps came back to win four in a row and book their first trip to the finals. They also had a close call in the second round, winning a tight series against the 76ers with a last-second Leonard shot that will go down in history. Toronto finished one game ahead of Golden State in the regular season standings which will give them home-court advantage in this series.

ROAD WARRIORS

That home-court advantage could prove crucial for a Raptors squad that is 40-11 at Scotiabank Arena this season, including 8-2 during the playoffs. Toronto has outstanding scoring margin of plus-12.1 at home in the postseason.

However the Warriors have been excellent on the road with a league-best 33-16 record, including 6-2 in the playoffs. Their road playoff scoring margin of plus-7.9 is almost 11 points better than the Raptors scoring margin away from Toronto (minus-3).

DEFENSE VS OFFENSE

This could be a classic battle of two teams with different styles. Golden State has improved on their already potent offense from the regular season, scoring 116.4 points per 100 possessions while shooting 48.7 percent from the field during the playoffs. The Raptors have stepped up on the defensive end of the floor, holding postseason opponents to 102.4 points per 100 possessions.

However the Warriors have shown flaws on the defensive end of the court, allowing 110.2 points per 100 possessions. When the Raptors have scored at least 104 points per 100 possessions during this playoffs they are 10-0.

FALLING BEHIND EARLY

Both teams had a bad habit of falling behind early during their conference finals matchups. Although Golden State swept Portland they trailed at halftime in each of the last three games, while Toronto trailed Milwaukee after 24 minutes in three of their last five games.

Golden State looks to have the edge in the early going, leading the league in 1Q scoring margin with plus-3.1. Toronto is plus-1.6 in the first 12 minutes, including a terrible minus-7.3 in the first quarter of their last three games. Taking the Warriors on the 1Q spread could be a good option.

Falling behind early will be far more costly for Toronto in this series given how well Golden State has closed out games.

TIGHTENING UP IN THE FOURTH

Both the Raptors and Warriors step up their defensive intensity in the fourth quarter while slowing down their offenses. The Warriors allow just 26.1 ppg in the fourth quarter and that number has been an incredible 19.3 pgg over their last three games. While the Raptors give up 26.3 ppg in the fourth, improving to 21 ppg over their previous three contests.

On offense, Golden State puts up 26.5 ppg in the final quarter, while Toronto averages 26 ppg. Live bettors should keep those trends in mind when betting on the total late in game.

THE KING IN THE NORTH

Kawhi Leonard has carried the Raptors throughout the playoffs, averaging 31.2 ppg while shooting 51/39/88. The Raptors need Leonard on the floor if they want their offense to click, They average 111.7 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi on the court and just 85.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. Expect him to log big minutes and take plenty of shots.

In his lone game against the Warriors during the regular season, Leonard scored 37 points on 14 of 24 shooting from the floor. The O/U for Leonard's ppg in the series is set at 30.5

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NBA Finals Predictions

The 2019 NBA Finals begins on Thursday May 30 from Scotiabank Arena as Toronto and Golden State will square off for the championship. The Warriors have won three of the last four titles and the oddsmakers have installed them as series favorites over the Raptors despite not having homecourt advantage in the best-of-seven battle.

Toronto finished the regular season at 58-24 and was the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference while Golden State earned the top spot in the Western Conference with a 57-25 mark.

The best-of-seven series will be played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format with a possible Game 7 taking place on Sunday June 16 from Canada.

In this year's regular season, Toronto and Golden State played each other within a two-week span in late November and early December. The Raptors earned a 131-128 victory at home on Nov. 29 and completed the sweep with a 113-93 win at Oracle Arena on Dec. 12. In the wild shootout from Canada, Warriors All-Star Stephen Curry sat out due to a groin injury. He was available in the second encounter and the Raptors still earned the win and they did so without their best player Kawhi Leonard, who was nursing a hip injury.

Throughout the 2019 playoffs our trio of NBA experts listed below have offered up their fearless predictions on every series and their records are listed below (Exact Games).

Kevin Rogers: 10-4 (3)
Chris David: 10-4 (4)
Tony Mejia: 11-3 (3)

Below are each of their predictions for the 2019 NBA Finals between the Raptors and Warriors which includes their analysis as well.



Analysis - Kevin Rogers

In a strange twist, the Raptors go from not owning home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals to now possessing it in the NBA Finals against the Warriors. Golden State is in familiar territory by making its fifth consecutive NBA Finals, but two things are different this time around. The Warriors don’t have to worry about containing LeBron James and Golden State will be on the road for the first two games and a potential Game 7.

Two games into the Eastern Conference Finals, it looked like Milwaukee would be heading to the NBA Finals, but four straight victories by Toronto has the Raptors vying for their first ever championship. No LeBron this time around, but Kawhi Leonard has put together a fantastic postseason by averaging 31.2 ppg, which is nearly five points higher than his regular season average.

Kevin Durant’s status is up in the air for Golden State after missing the Western Conference Finals with a calf injury. The big question heading into this series for the Warriors (besides the availability of KD) is if all those holes Portland dug for Golden State to climb out of was a sign to things to come or just poor starts for the Warriors.

Toronto swept the season series, including a blowout win at Oracle Arena without Leonard. Stephen Curry didn’t suit up in an overtime loss at Toronto, as Durant lit up the Raptors for 51 points. If Durant doesn’t play and the Warriors owned home-court advantage, then Golden State should be alright. But with Durant out to start the series and the Warriors have to travel early, that could spell problems for the champs.

Analysis - Chris David

In the 2008 NBA Finals, the L.A. Lakers (-180) met the Celtics (+160) in the finals without homecourt advantage and that was the last time we saw a club with the venue disadvantage listed as favorites in the series. Boston won the matchup in six games and while the extra home matches played a factor in that series, it’s not always the telling factor. Since that best-of-seven battle, we’ve seen three teams in the Mavericks (2011), Heat (2012) and Cavaliers (2016) win the finals without homecourt advantage.

While I believe Toronto will be much more competitive than last year’s LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers in the finals, I can’t see the Raptors sustaining their defense against this well-tuned Warriors squad. Holding the Bucks to 102, 99 and 94 points in the last three games of the East Finals was very impressive but Milwaukee helped that cause by only hitting 31 percent from 3-point land in the series. Outside of the Game 4 win at home, every contest was tight and they’re now facing a group that is better than anybody in finishing games.

The Raptors have a slight edge in the frontcourt due to the uncertain status of Golden State forward Kevin Durant. If he was healthy, the Warriors would likely be -500 favorites knowing how much success he’s had against Toronto. He averaged 40.5 points per game in the two losses to the Raptors this season and his career numbers (27.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.2 APG) versus the Canadian club are off the charts as well. Without KD, the Warriors are 5-0 in the postseason and his absence has helped give minutes and confidence to Steve Kerr’s reserves. If Durant returns and possibly DeMarcus Cousins too, the added talent should only create more issues for the Raptors.

I expect Toronto to win at least one, possibly two games at home in this series and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout as well since we’ve seen this Golden State team get run plenty of times this season. However, the Warriors have been very solid off losses and their playoff record at home is ridiculous. Golden State in six games (9/4) is the top choice for Exact Game Odds and that’s my lean in the finals.

Analysis - Tony Mejia

It's difficult to look ahead in this series since we don't know when Kevin Durant will return to alter the dynamic, but I'm of the belief we'll see him by the time the series returns to Oakland. The Warriors can theoretically win this series without him but will certainly be able to use his services to help make life more difficult for Kawhi Leonard. It's hard to imagine Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet staying as hot as they were late in the Eastern Conference finals, which means it's going to be tough to hang with the Splash Brothers, especially since Danny Green is mired in such an awful slump. Golden State will need Draymond Green to stay out of foul trouble and Andre Iguodala's calf to hold up but should win a third straight title, breaking Canadian hearts in spoiling Toronto's first Finals.

[StarDust Bum]

521Golden State -522 Toronto
GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent in the current season.


NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 30

Golden State @ Toronto

Game 521-522
May 30, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
130.705
Toronto
128.382
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 2 1/2
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
215
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+1); Over


NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (69 - 29) at TORONTO (70 - 30) - 5/30/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-54 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-67 ATS (-21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-49 ATS (-19.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 215-269 ATS (-80.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 30

Warriors are in Finals for 5th year in row; Raptors are in Finals for first time. Toronto is 2-0 vs Golden State this season, winning in OT in Oakland in November, by 20 at home 13 days later, after Warriors had won previous eight meetings. Six of last eight series games went over the total. Golden State will be without Durant/Cousins; they won their last six games- their last losses were Games 2-3 in Houston. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. Toronto won/covered its last four games; they won last five home games (4-1 vs spread). Over is 3-2 in last five Raptor home games.


NBA

Thursday, May 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Toronto
Golden State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Toronto
Golden State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Toronto's last 19 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
Toronto is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing Golden State
Toronto is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Golden State
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, MAY 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GS at TOR 09:00 PM

TOR -1.5

U 213.5

[StarDust Bum]

Raptors take Finals opener, beat Warriors
May 30, 2019
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TORONTO (AP) Pascal Siakam scored a playoff career-high 32 points and the Toronto Raptors won the first NBA Finals game played outside the U.S., beating the Golden State Warriors 118-109 on Thursday night.

The Raptors hardly looked like newcomers to the NBA's biggest stage, controlling the action most of the way against a Golden State team beginning its fifth straight NBA Finals appearance.

Kawhi Leonard added 23 points and Marc Gasol had 20 for the Raptors.

Stephen Curry scored 34 points and Klay Thompson had 21 for the Warriors, who had won all four Game 1s in the last four years. All those had come at home, but this time Golden State doesn't have home-court advantage.

Game 2 is Sunday in Toronto.


*********************************

Warriors sputter at times, fall in Game 1
May 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

TORONTO (AP) Maybe it was the rust. Maybe it was the Raptors.

Either way, Golden State's offense was not at its usual high-octane level on Thursday night in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and for the first time in this era of Warriors basketball, they face a 1-0 deficit in the title series.

The Warriors shot 44 percent, turned the ball over 17 times and fell to the Toronto Raptors 118-109 in the series opener. Going back to the 1975 finals, the Warriors had won Game 1 of the title matchup in each of their last five appearances in the series. The last time Golden State lost a Game 1 of the finals was 1967.

Golden State was playing for the first time in 10 days, and trailed for nearly 43 of the game's 48 minutes. The Warriors trailed by 10 at the half, marking the fourth consecutive game where Golden State faced a double-digit deficit at some point.

In the last three of those contests, Golden State rallied to beat Portland.

Toronto didn't fold and let this one slip away.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 16 field goals; the rest of the Warriors combined for only 18. Draymond Green, who did have a triple-double, shot 2 for 9. Andre Iguodala was 3 for 7, missing all four of his tries from 3-point range.

This is a matchup of offense vs. defense, the freewheeling Warriors against a Toronto team that has now peeled off five consecutive wins since falling behind Milwaukee 2-0 in the Eastern Conference finals. The Raptors turned that series around by clamping down at the defensive end, particularly against Bucks star and likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.

This time, it was against everyone.

Golden State's two-time reigning NBA Finals MVP in Kevin Durant isn't expected back for Game 2, either. The Warriors have said he won't play until he can return to a full-fledged practice, and earlier Thursday coach Steve Kerr said it was unlikely that Durant participates in a practice before the team heads home to the Bay Area to prepare for Game 3 on Wednesday night.

So if something is going to change on Sunday when the finals resume in Toronto, it won't be with Durant aiding the cause.

[StarDust Bum]

nba championship picks and best bets!


05/30/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -50


total.............. 1-1-0 50.00% -50


best bets

date.................ats.................units.... ..................o/u...................units...............total


05/30/2019........1 - 0..............+5.00......................0 - 1...................-5.50...............-0.50


total................1 - 0..............+5.00......................0 - 1...................-5.50...............-0.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Triples-doubles in Game 1 of an NBA Finals:

— Wilt Chamberlain (Apr. 14, 1967)

— Walt Frazier (Apr. 26, 1972)

— Dave Cowens (May 23, 1976)

— Magic Johnson (June 2, 1991)

— Jason Kidd (June 5, 2002

— LeBron James (June 6, 2013)

Quotes of the Day
Part 1
“I’m extremely disappointed about not being on the field with my teammates. I sustained the rib fracture during a massage at my home on Tuesday. To sustain an injury in such an unusual way makes it even more frustrating. However, I will work hard to get back on the field as quickly as possible to help our team achieve our goal of winning another championship.”
Carlos Correa, who needs a new masseuse

Part 2
“Are you f—-ing blind?!?!?!”
Female fan at the Oakland Coliseum Wednesday, yelling at the home plate ump after a called strike. Her voice was captured by the field mike.

Friday’s quiz
Which NBA head coach was born in Lebanon?

Thursday’s quiz
New Hampshire is known as the Granite State.

Wednesday’s quiz
Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Joe Theismann won Super Bowls playing for Joe Gibbs.

*********************

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….

13) Oh Canada is one of my favorite songs; when I got married many, many years ago, we had to pay the organist $75, whether she played at the wedding or not. This was 1992, $75 was a decent payday. The $75 annoyed me a great deal; it really irritated me. I don’t even think the priest got $75. Organists must have a good union.

Anyway, we’re sitting there on the altar after Communion and the organist is earning her $75 and all of a sudden, I’m hearing her play Oh Canada, and there are murmurs in the church. I had no idea this was going to happen. Murmurs turned to laughter. She played it well.

The marriage didn’t go very well, but that was definitely the highlight of the wedding. Got a text reminding me of that during that national anthem in Toronto last night. Still makes me laugh.

12) Raptors 118, Warriors 109— Siakam shot 14-17 from floor, scored 32 points with five assists for Raptors. Green/Bell/Iguodala shot combined 6-18 from floor as Toronto takes 1-0 series lead on its home floor.

Dell Curry played the last three years of his 16-year career for Toronto, so of course Drake shows up for this game wearing a Dell Curry Raptors’ jersey.

12) Weird stat of the day from The Sporting News: This is the 36th consecutive NBA Finals series with at least one former teammate of Shaquille O’Neal. Danny Green and Shaq were teammates on the Cavaliers nine years ago.

10) Back in January, when the St Louis Blues were floundering near the bottom of the NHL, a courageous bettor wagered $400 on the Blues (250-1) to win the Stanley Cup. He is three wins away from a big payday. Notable that he didn’t hedge his bet before the finals to guarantee a profit. Finals series is tied, 1-1.

9) You can’t make this stuff up: A Jacksonville couple was arrested this week on charges of animal cruelty after a police officer rescued a pig from the couple’s steaming hot Lexus that was parked in a **** parking lot. Temperatures were in the high 90’s at the time.

I mean, not only do you have a pig in a car, but you have a damn Lexus. Why?

8) All-time record for home runs in a month:
— 1,119 in August 2017
— 1,101 in June 2017

So far this May, entering Thursday’s games, there have been 1,069 homers hit.

7) Baseball stuff:
— Detroit optioned OF Victor Reyes back to AAA.
— Red Sox put P Hector Velasquez (back) on the IL.
— Cincinnati optioned P Lucas Sims back to AAA.
— Marlins optioned P Elieser Hernandez back to AAA.

Jake Odorizzi’s last six starts for Minnesota:
— 35.2 IP, allowed 3 runs, 39 baserunners, Twins won all six games.

6) Cleveland Indians didn’t hit a triple in their first 54 games; they hit three of them Wednesday, in their 55th game.

5) MLB Network couldn’t wait to show Boston-New York games Thursday/Friday, but horrible weather postponed Thursday’s game in the Bronx- it’ll be made up August 3rd as part of a doubleheader. I’m guessing that twinbill will be on national TV.

National TV outlets should try showing more Astros’ games; they have a dome. No rainouts.

4) This didn’t sound right when I heard it, but apparently, Los Angeles County has more voters than 42 of the other 49 states; they have voters who speak 13 different languages.

3) Lakers-Nets are playing two preseason games in China in October.

2) College basketball transfer portal:
— South Carolina poached 6-9 Micaiah Henry from Tennessee Tech.
— Brad Calipari (John’s son) entered the transfer portal; guess he wants playing time.
— KJ Lawson bolts from Kansas to Tulane; another guy who wants to play.

1) In case you were wondering, people in Finland prefer silence to casual conversation.

Schools and tutors in Finland are now offering courses in casual conversation; ‘It does not come naturally to Finns.’ Some Finns have begun to take lessons, in classrooms or even from private tutors, so they can make conversation in their international business dealings.

Says one Finnish small talk tutor: “Lower your standards; not every conversation you have has to be clever. You can comment on food, any music that is playing, even the weather.”

Who knew that could be a job? Go figure.