Thursday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 8/23

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, August 23

Good Luck on day #235 of 2018!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

From Covers, least profitable starting pitchers this year, based on $100/start:

320. Homer Bailey (1-16) $-1,448

319. Justin Verlander (15-12) $-1,283

318. Clayton Kershaw (9-10) $-1,152

317. Kenta Maeda (8-12) $-1,117

316. Kyle Hendricks (12-14) $-1,106

315. Alex Cobb (5-18) $-1,06

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Quality TV from the Mets’ crew Tuesday night when roving reporter Steve Gelbs asked pitcher Zach Wheeler if it bugs him when he gives up a hit that wouldn’t be a hit if the team hadn’t shifted, and Wheeler quickly replied “100%”

There are people online who keep track of “runs saved” with the shift; I mean, lot of hard drives up the middle are now caught by infielders, so the shift is useful, too, but there is a plus/minus that exists, and you just know it drives some guys nuts when the shift fails.

12) Tampa Bay Rays were -$210 against the Royals Monday, which says a lot about how awful Kansas City is. Pretty interesting wagering quandary.

How can you lay $210 with a team, when you know the starting pitcher is going to get only four or five outs before he is removed, and you’re not totally sure who his replacement will be?

Rays won the game easily; the “opener” has changed baseball though, to a small degree.

11) 2019 baseball season starts on March 28, except A’s/Mariners, who play two games over in Japan March 20-21. MLB decided to schedule some 2-game interleague series on weekends, so there will be teams who have Fridays off, which is weird. A’s have two Fridays off in August.

When they expand to 32 teams, and they will soon, scheduling will become much easier.

10) Ever see American Restoration on the History Channel? Guy in Las Vegas who has a place that refurbishes old stuff (cars, Coke machines, wagons, motorcycles) and makes them look like new again. They do excellent work.

Saw an episode last night where they worked on one of Billy Joel’s motorcycles, then they delivered the finished bike to a shop Joel owns in Oyster Bay, Long Island. Pretty cool stuff.

9) Random musical opinions:

— Favorite Billy Joel song: Piano Man
— Favorite Bob Seger song: Turn the Page
— Favorite Van Morrison song: Into the Mystic

8) Buster Posey is likely going to have season-ending hip surgery, which will probably also end his career as a catcher. Does that mean the Giants will trade Brandon Belt this winter?

7) Nationals’ TV analyst FP Santangelo told a story on air Tuesday night about when he was playing and his best friend on the team got traded, and Santangelo went 0-20 right after that, as it became painfully obvious to him that baseball is indeed a business.

I’m trying to remember what old-time player told this next story, I want to say Al Kaline, but I’m not 100% sure. Anyway, when the young player first came up to the majors, one of the established stars of the team came up to him and said, “…..they cut our friend to bring you up” and then walked away from the young guy, and they weren’t nice to him until he established himself as a really good player. Nowadays, young players get treated a lot better.

6) Washington didn’t trade Bryce Harper to the Dodgers (who claimed him on waivers) because they know they can get a first-round draft pick if he bolts in free agency this winter.

5) There are some people on Twitter pushing for an 8-team college football playoff, which would involve getting rid of conference championship games, and playing the first round of the playoff tournament at campus sites. Not a bad idea.

4) Former Arizona Cardinals’ coach Bruce Arians will work for CBS on NFL games this fall, along with Greg Gumbel and Trent Green. Curious to hear Arians analyze games.

3) Major league All-Star Game was later than normal this year; it is earlier than normal (July 9) next summer, in Cleveland.

2) From Covers, most profitable starting pitchers this year, based on $100/start:

1. Mike Fiers (16-8) $1,467
2. Mike Leake (17-8) $1,256
3. Jhoulys Chacin (19-8) $1,164
4. Eduardo Rodriguez (16-3) $1,160
5. David Price (18-6) $1,094
6. Aaron Nola (18-7) $1,039
7. Yovani Gallardo (9-2) $951

1) Worlds colliding; You know I love college basketball and Seth Davis is a college basketball analyst for CBS and writes for The Athletic. It is just odd to me that Davis’ father is Lanny Davis, Michael Cohen’s lawyer, who is on national TV about every 90 seconds this week.

[Udog]

Cheat Sheet - Second Round

The WNBA playoffs field is down to six teams as the first round concluded on Tuesday. In those games, the home teams went 2-0 both straight up and against the spread as Phoenix and Los Angeles captured wins and covers against Dallas and Minnesota respectively.

The Mercury and Sparks will now face the task of playing of travelling to the East Coast on one day of rest for the second round.

The Future Odds have been updated for the final six teams remaining in this year’s postseason with Seattle and Atlanta listed as the top choices. Those two clubs will meet the winner of Thursday’s games on Sunday in the semifinals, which are best-of-five matchups.

Odds to win 2018 WNBA Finals
Seattle Storm 7/5
Atlanta Dream 9/2
Los Angeles Sparks 11/2
Washington Mystics 11/2
Connecticut Sun 13/2
Phoenix Mercury 13/2

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

No. 6 Los Angeles at No. 3 Washington (ESPN2, 6:35 p.m. ET)

Regular Season Meetings
June 15 – Los Angeles (+4) 97 at Washington 86 (Over 159.5)
July 7 – Washington (+6.5) 83 at Los Angeles 74 (Under 160)
Aug. 17 – Washington (-4) 69 vs. Los Angeles 67 (Under 158.5)

-- The Mystics captured two of the three encounters against the Sparks this year, which included their regular season finale last Friday at the Charles E. Smith Center from Washington D.C.

-- Los Angeles defeated Minnesota 75-68 on Tuesday as a six-point home favorite in the first round. The combined 143 points never threatened the closing total of 150.

-- The win comes at the right time since the Sparks were 1-4 in their previous five games and all four of those losses came on the road.

-- L.A. did win its previous three road games before that four-game skid but the victories came against three non-playoff teams.

-- Washington closed its regular season last Sunday with an 88-83 loss at Minnesota. Prior to that setback, the Mystics had ripped off seven straight victories.

-- Washington posted an 11-5 SU and 7-9 ATS record at home this season and it’s going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four from the nation’s capital.

-- The Sparks led the WNBA in scoring defense, allowing 77 points per game. Washington allowed 81.4 and that number dipped to 79.1 PPG at home.

-- Both Los Angeles (21-14) and Washington (18-15) leaned to the ‘under’ this season. However, the Sparks were a solid ‘over’ look on the road with an 11-6 record.

-- The Mystics went 10-8 against the Western Conference this season while Los Angeles shared the same record (10-8) versus the Eastern Conference. Washington was 8-10 ATS in those games while LA produced a 9-8 ATS mark.

-- Washington went 2-3 in the 2017 WNBA playoffs, winning the first two elimination games before getting swept 3-0 by the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals.

-- The Sparks have reached the WNBA Finals each of the last two seasons and are 1-0 in elimination games, which took place on Tuesday.


No. 5 Phoenix at No. 4 Connecticut (ESPN2, 8:35 p.m. ET)

Regular Season Meetings
June 16 - Phoenix (-5.5) 89 vs. Connecticut 72 (Under, 172.5)
July 5 – Phoenix (-6.5) 84 vs. Connecticut 77 (Under 170)
July 12 – Connecticut (-5) 91 vs. Phoenix 87 (Over 169)

-- The home team went 3-0 in the three encounters between Connecticut and Phoenix this season with the last meeting taking place on July 12. The Sun captured the lone contest at Mohegan Sun Arena but failed to cover as a home favorite.

-- The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the meetings with the only ‘over’ ticket connecting in Connecticut’s home win.

-- The Mercury captured a wire-to-wire 101-83 victory over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday as seven-point home favorites.

-- Including that win, Phoenix has won five straight games and they’re 4-1 ATS during this span. The club has gone 6-3 since the All-Star break.

-- The offense has averaged 94.3 PPG in their last nine games and that’s led to an 8-1-1 ‘over’ record.

-- Phoenix was one of two teams in the WNBA to post more wins on the road than at home this season. The Mercury went 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS away from home.

-- The Sun closed the regular season with four straight wins and has gone 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

-- The defense has been very solid during this span, holding seven teams to under 80 points.

-- At home, the Sun went 13-4 this season but were just 9-8 ATS. They closed the year with seven straight wins at home, winning by an average of 16.8 PPG.

-- Connecticut led the league in scoring at 87.6 PPG and it also averaged 90.8 PPG at home this season, which was ranked first as well.

-- The Mercury averaged 84.6 PPG on the road, which was ranked third in the league.

-- The Sun and Mercury both went 12-6 in non-conference games this season. Connecticut was 10-8 ATS versus the West while Phoenix was 12-6 ATS.

-- If the game is tight, Phoenix has a decisive advantage at the charity stripe. The Mercury shot 84.9 percent from the free throw line in the regular season while Connecticut was the second worst in the league at 74.8 percent.

-- Connecticut has watched the ‘under’ go 18-16 this season while Phoenix leaned to the ‘over’ (20-15).

-- Since the WNBA created the first and second round elimination matchups in 2016, the Mercury have now gone 5-0 in those games.

[Udog]

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, August 23


Los Angeles @ Washington

Game 309-310
August 23, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
111.647
Washington
113.967
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 4 1/2
156
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+4 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Connecticut

Game 311-312
August 23, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
113.806
Connecticut
115.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Connecticut
by 2
183
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Connecticut
by 4 1/2
177
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+4 1/2); Over




WNBA

Thursday, August 23

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Trend Report
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Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games on the road
Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Los Angeles is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Washington
Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Mystics
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home
Washington is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Los Angeles
Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against Los Angeles


Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Connecticut
Phoenix is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Connecticut is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Connecticut's last 8 games
Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games at home
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Connecticut is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Connecticut is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix


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