Announcement

**Udog** · 07-21-2018, 09:33 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Odds to win the Big X football championship:

4-5— Oklahoma Sooners

5-2— Texas Longhorns

6-1— TCU, West Virginia

8-1— Oklahoma State Cowboys

25-1— Iowa State Cyclones

30-1— Kansas State Wildcats

**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here

13) Lot of nights while you’re sleeping, I’m watching movies, listening to music and researching obscure facts/trends that I can use in this space. Sometimes the stuff I find is useful, sometimes it is useless, you never know- the research is what makes it interesting.

Other night I was thinking about how NFL coaches in their first year with a team do in their first game with that team, so I spent a few hours looking it up.

12) Biggest trend I could find is that those teams with new head coaches went under the total 55.6% of the time (74-59-3) since 1998. Eliminate Dallas (over 5-0) and the Rams (over 4-1) and under becomes 73-50-3 (59.3%).

11) Teams with new coaches went 68-60-8 vs spread, 47-40-6 as underdogs. Nothing huge there. My thought in looking this up is that you have to examine the situation each team is in.

Last year, the Rams opened at home against Indianapolis; only a fool would’ve laid points with a Rams’ squad that had been pointspread poison for several years, but the Colts were starting Scott Tolzien at QB and he shouldn’t be a starter in the Canadian League.

Rams won 46-9. Sometimes life is simple. Most times it isn’t.

10) For the record, there are seven NFL teams this season with new coaches: Cardinals, Bears, Lions, Colts, Giants, Raiders and Titans.

Of those seven, three are favored in Week 1: Lions, Titans, Colts.

9) Clemson signed defensive coordinator Brent Venables a 5-year contract for $11.6M, the biggest contract ever given to a college football assistant coach.

$2,320,000 a year for a defensive coordinator? They better have a damn good defense.

8) There is an actor named Marc Blucas who has been in 64 movies/TV shows, including a starring role in USA Network’s Necessary Roughness and guest shots on Arli$$, CSI and Blue Bloods.

When he was in college, Blucas played basketball at Wake Forest, where one of his teammates was a guy named Tim Duncan.

7) In 2015, the White Sox had a payroll of $118,619,378; this year, their payroll is $71,217,000 so of course they’re still terrible, Jose Abreu is their best player and he will be 32 when next season starts. There aren’t any prized pitching prospects on the horizon, unless you count Michael Kopech, who has walked 57 batters in 88.1 IP this year in AAA— not good.

6) Five years ago, the Astros had a payroll of $26,105,600 and were an awful team- five short years later, they’re World Champs and their payroll is $160,393,900— it figures to swell even further with McCullers, Bregman and Correa all making less than $3M a year this season.

5) Then there are the Mets, a dreadful team with a payroll of $150,558,894.

Jay Bruce, David Wright and AJ Ramos are getting paid a combined $40M this season. Yoenis Cespedes is making $29M; Friday was his first game since May 13.

4) Yogi Ferrell backed out of a contract agreement with the Dallas Mavericks, after agreeing to a two-year, $5.3M deal earlier this week. His agent said: “We felt uncomfortable and will weigh our options.” He must have some better options than $2.65M a year.

3) St Louis 1B Matt Carpenter was 5-5 with three homers, two doubles Friday; his 16 total bases was only three bases shy of the all-time record. They took him out in the 6th inning; teams play a twin bill Saturday, plus the Cubs had position players pitching at that point. In his career, by the way, Carpenter is 22 for 42 with the bases loaded.

Reminds me that a very underrated baseball record is most total bases in one game, held by Shawn Green, who had 19 total bases in a game. Tough to do; four HR’s still leaves you short.

2) Jameis Winston is out for the Buccaneers’ first three games, so how will Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter dispense playing time in exhibition games this summer?

Have to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick, because if he gets hurt then Tampa Bay is really screwed in Weeks 1-3, but he needs work to get ready, too. Winston also needs work, so that he isn’t too rusty when he comes back in Week 4. Maybe Winston plays more in the 4th exhibition game, when starters usually rest?

1) Here’s a solid stat to close with today: over the last 15 years, the Super Bowl loser is 2-13 vs spread in their first game the following season, 2-10 when favored.

**Udog** · 07-21-2018, 09:36 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Saturday, July 21

Washington @ New York

Game 601-602
July 21, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
108.437
New York
105.942
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
169
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 4 1/2
164
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+4 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Phoenix

Game 603-604
July 21, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
109.821
Phoenix
108.303
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
169
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 1 1/2
160 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+1 1/2); Over

WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, July 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (13 - 10) at NEW YORK (7 - 16) - 7/21/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 323-382 ATS (-97.2 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1997.
NEW YORK is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
NEW YORK is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (13 - 10) at PHOENIX (15 - 9) - 7/21/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 9-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 11-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WNBA

Saturday, July 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Mystics
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing New York
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New York
Washington is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York Liberty
New York is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
New York is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
New York is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games when playing Washington
New York is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
New York is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Minnesota is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Phoenix
Minnesota is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing Phoenix
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
Phoenix is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Phoenix is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

Saturday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/21

Saturday's WNBA Trends and Indexes - 7/21

Comment

Comment