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**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 10:27 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds on some longshots to win the college basketball national title next April:

200-1– St Mary’s Gaels

300-1— UConn Huskies

500-1— Colorado Buffaloes

1,000-1— Richmond Spiders

2,000-1— Montana Grizzlies

5,000-1— Cal State-Fullerton Titans

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) I usually have a great time sitting in the sportsbook here at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas; usually find lot of interesting people to talk to. Comfortable chairs, big screens to watch the games on. Had great fun watching games Monday, but last night……..

I’m sitting there last night, and this guy sits in the chair next to me, on my right; within 90 seconds, he starts in by criticizing every team he has bet on. For the next two hours, I heard in loud and obscene terms:

— Washington Caps pass too much in the offensive zone.
— Mike Matheny doesn’t know how to make a lineup.
— Matt Carpenter shouldn’t bat 2nd.
— The Flaherty kid pitching for St Louis should be in AAA.
— Matt Chapman sucks as a third baseman.
— Matt Carpenter shouldn’t be playing.
— Daniel Mengden can’t field his position. And on and on………..

12) Now two of those guys play for the Oakland A’s, and if you know me, you know I’ve been an A’s fan since 1965, when Phil Roof was the A’s catcher and Jose Tartabull played the outfield. I love the freakin’ A’s. I’m biting my tongue so hard with this guy it hurts.

He bet the Cardinals and A’s in the first five innings; both bets win, but he doesn’t say one positive word about either team. He loses his NHL wager. I am considering whether he has Tourette’s syndrome or is just a degenerative gambler without any filter at all.

11) He blurts out “Winner, winner, chicken dinner” as the 5th inning ends in the A’s game, and goes to cash his ticket. I say to him “Mengden won the game for you” and he protests with a profanity (“He can’t field his (bleep)ing position”) as he storms off, never to be seen again.

Should’ve said something about an hour earlier…….

10) Robinson Cano gets an 80-game suspension for failing a drug test; weird timing, since he broke his hand Sunday, and the suspension/injury will be served at same time. Cano will be eligible again in late August, but if Seattle makes the playoffs, he is ineligible to play in them.

Cano loses roughly $11.85M with the suspension; Mariners can use that money to try and replace him, or fortify their team somewhere else. Seattle is 24-17 with roughly 25% off the season gone; they’re half-game out of the 2nd Wild Card spot.

9) David Tepper, a billionaire hedge-fund manager who owned a small part of the Steelers, will buy the Carolina Panthers for $2.2B or so and keep the team in Charlotte. Mr Tepper is said to be paying cash to buy the team. 2.2 billion dollars. In cash.

I can barely afford a team in my fantasy league. Good for him.

8) Supreme Court has opened the door for states other than Nevada to start taking bets on sports; New Jersey is already rumored to be starting on Memorial Day.

7) New York-Washington baseball game was suspended in the middle of the 6th inning last night, with game 3-3; it’ll be resumed at 5:05 ET today, and then the regularly-scheduled game will be played.

Orioles-Phillies got rained out last night; that game will be made up July 12.

6) Guy named Tom Haberstroh is a better man than I am; he counted how many times each team dribbled in the Rockets-Warriors game Monday. Houston 1,105, Warriors 812.

Point being that part of Golden State’s greatness is that they get great spacing and they find open men quickly with passes, the way basketball should be played. Plus the open men they find can all shoot, otherwise it would be pointless to get them the ball.

5) Phoenix Suns won the NBA Lottery, so they get the first pick in the draft; seeing as they already hired a foreign-born coach who was once coached international prospect Luka Doncic on a national team, you’d think he’ll be the choice, yes?

But Deandre Ayton played one season for the Arizona Wildcats; most people seem to think he is the best player in the draft. We’ll see what the Suns do.

Sacramento/Atlanta pulled upsets and moved up to the 2nd and 3rd spots in the draft.

4) Arizona Diamondbacks lost star CF AJ Pollock (broken wrist) for 4-6 weeks.

3) You can wager on what color hat the Queen of England will be wearing at the royal wedding this weekend. Green is the current favorite, bet down to even money.

2) So you bet the Astros-Angels game last night; maybe you bet the game because Fielden Culbreth was the home plate ump, but Culbreth got drilled in the mask by a foul ball in the 3rd inning and was replaced by CB Bucknor, who is more of a pitcher’s umpire.

Sometimes stuff happens during a game and it either helps you or hurts you from a gambling perspective; when you’re hot, things fall your way. When you’re cold, you lose replay challenges and guys drop fly balls on you. Part of what makes gambling so challenging.

1) I made a wager on the Dodgers-Marlins game last night, forgetting that they can’t show Dodger games here in Las Vegas unless they’re on national TV. Las Vegas for some stupid reason, is considered part of the LA market, so their games get blacked out.

Think I realized all this about 30 seconds before the talkative gambler sat next to me and brightened up my world. Today will be a better day!!!!

**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 10:33 AM

NBA Western Conference Final Game 2 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Rockets

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-1.5, 224.5)

Warriors lead series 1-0.

The Golden State Warriors flashed supreme form in the opener of the Western Conference finals and look to take a 2-0 lead when they visit the Houston Rockets on Wednesday. The Warriors outscored the Rockets by 13 points in the second half while recording a 119-106 win in Game 1.

Forward Kevin Durant scored 37 points and shooting guard Klay Thompson added 28 as second-seeded Golden State was in top form while outclassing James Harden and the top-seeded Rockets. "I don't know if we're at our peak," Durant told reporters. "I think we could be better. I mean, the stakes are high. We're playing the Western Conference finals against the best team in the league, the No. 1 seed, an MVP on their team. So I think everybody just wants to enjoy this time." Harden recorded 41 points and seven assists in the opener but didn't receive enough help from the supporting cast. "We're all in this together," Harden told reporters. "It doesn't matter who has a bad game or who is missing shots. ... Keep shooting your shot and being aggressive. We got this far doing that and having that mindset, so we're just going to continue it."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened as 2.5-point home favorites for Game 2 after being thoroughly dominated in the opener. The early action was steady on the Warriors and books were forced to move that number down to 1.5 by Tuesday afternoon. The total hit betting boards at 225.5 and has been dropped slightly to 224.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The world figures to line up on the top-seeded Rockets in a bounce back tonight but it should be noted that Golden State is 21-5 SU the last twenty-six games in this series, including 6-0 both SU and ATS as an underdog. It’s hard to argue with numbers like those." - Marc Lawrence.

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - SG P. McCaw (Early June, Back), SF C. Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).

Rockets - No injuries to report.

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (67-26 SU, 40-52-1 ATS, 43-49-1 O/U): Durant was 14-of-27 shooting in Game 1 as Golden State repeatedly isolated him to take advantage of mismatches with Houston defenders. "We want to keep the ball moving, but obviously Kevin is the ultimate luxury because a play can break down and you just throw him the ball," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "He can get you a bucket as well as anybody on Earth. This is why anybody would want him on their team. You think about a couple years ago, and we're in the Finals and we couldn't quite get over the hump. Kevin is the guy that puts you over the hump." Point guard Stephen Curry was solid all-around with 18 points, eight assists and six rebounds as his team's third-leading scorer for the contest.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (73-20 SU, 47-45-1 ATS, 38-54-1 O/U): Harden reached 40 points for the third time this season and coach Mike D'Antoni joked after Game 1 that he might need to ask Harden to score 55 in Game 2. He broke out a 3-point shooting funk by making 5-of-9 attempts after being just 6-of-32 over the final four contests of the second-round series against the Utah Jazz. Point guard Chris Paul had 23 points and 11 rebounds in the opener but only had three assists as the Rockets were unable to crisply moving the ball in the halfcourt offense.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.
* Rockets are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Under is 4-0 in Warriors' last 4 road games.
* Under is 11-0 in Rockets' last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.

CONSENSUS:

There are 51 percent of pointspread bets on the favored Rockets while 66 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 10:41 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 16

Golden State @ Houston

Game 501-502
May 16, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
128.905
Houston
126.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 2
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
225
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+2); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 16

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GOLDEN STATE (67 - 26) at HOUSTON (73 - 20) - 5/16/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-51 ATS (-17.1 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-40 ATS (+18.0 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 40-54 ATS (-19.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, May 16

Golden State (1-0) @ Houston
Golden State is 25-3 in playoff games since they signed Durant. Houston’s five subs were combined -35 in 79:00 in Game 1. Harden had 41 points Monday but Durant/Thompson combined for 65. Road team won three of four series games this year; Warriors won/covered five of their last seven visits to Houston. Under is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Golden State is 9-2 in these playoffs, 3-2 on road- under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Houston is 8-3 in playoffs, 3-4 vs spread in last seven home games. Over is 5-4 in their last nine games.

Conference finals
Cavaliers-Celtics
Bos 108-83, +1, U204.5
Bos 107-94, +1, U205.5

Warriors-Rockets
GState 119-106, -1.5, U225.5

NBA

Wednesday, May 16

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Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Houston's last 19 games
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Houston is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 21 games at home
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State

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**Udog** · 05-16-2018, 12:59 PM

The Celtics continue to get no respect from oddmakers, currently 6.5-point underdogs for Game 3.

Here are NBA playoffs betting stats thus far:

Home Teams:
48-19 Straight Up
37-29-1 ATS (55.38%)

Favorites:
50-17 Straight Up
38-28-1 ATS (58.46%)

Over-Under: 32-35 (0-3 in conference finals)

**redheron** · 05-16-2018, 08:40 PM

Thanks for your post! I follow daily and appreciate the info

**Udog** · 05-17-2018, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by redheron View Post

Thanks for your post! I follow daily and appreciate the info

You're sure welcome, redheron! I hope it helps a little.

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Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/16

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/16

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