Announcement

**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 08:25 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Betting props for the Masters:

— Will Eldrick Woods make the cut? Yes -$170, No +$140

— Will Jordan Spieth hit a ball in water on 12th hole this week? Yes +$140, No -$190

— Most strokes recorded on any hole by any player: 8 Yes/No both -$115

— Lowest round by any player in any round: 65.5 Over/under both -$115

— Highest round by any player in any round: 82.5 Over/under both -$115

— Will there be a playoff in The Masters? Yes +$235, No —$285

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) One of the basic truths of life: Baseball players get hurt a lot. Season started with 113 players on the disabled list, little less than four players per team.

12) There were 925 sacrifice bunts in the major leagues LY, fewest of any season since 1900.

11) When Ichiro Suzuki gets inducted into the Hall of Fame someday, it’ll a proud day for retired P Ryan Vogelsong. Ichiro was 0-15 in his career against Vogelsong.

10) New England now has four of the first 63 picks in the NFL Draft in three weeks. This is the first time since 1998 the Patriots have two 1st-round picks and two 2nd-round picks in a draft.

9) 80-year old Jim Harrick, who won a national title at UCLA in 1995, will be on Mark Gottfried’s staff at Cal-Northridge next winter. Gottfried was an assistant on that UCLA staff in ’95, with Lorenzo Romar and Steve Lavin.

8) Most NCAA tournament wins since 2000:
Kansas 49, North Carolina 48, Duke 46, Mich State/Kentucky 42

7) Dodgers pitchers allowed 8 bases-loaded walks all of last season; they issued three in the 7th inning alone Tuesday night in Arizona.

6) They had the par-3 tournament at Augusta National Wednesday; guys can have whoever they want caddy for them, and Jack Nicklaus had one of his grandsons caddy for him. They let the caddies hit a few shots, and the 15-year old grandson gets a hole-in-one, his first ever. Wow.

5) Pro golfer Tony Finau also got a hole-in-one Wednesday, but he dislocated his ankle while he was celebrating the ace. He put the ankle back in place and finished his round. Was odd to see; he just reached down and put the ankle back in place.

4) Thursday, Baltimore Ravens’ GM/coach Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh will be questioned under oath as part of the Colin Kaepernick collusion grievance.

Wednesday, the Ravens gave QB Robert Griffin III a one-year, $1M contract for 2018.

Maybe I watch too many movies, but I’m thinking this isn’t a coincidence.

3) College basketball coaching carousel:
— St Peter’s coach John Donne stays in the MAAC, but moves to Marist.
— Rhode Island promoted assistant David Cox to head coach.
— East Carolina signed Florida Gulf Coast coach Joe Dooley as its new coach.
— South Dakota hired Grand Canyon assistant Todd Lee as its new coach.

2) Cardinals led off Tuesday’s game with back/back homers off of Chase Anderson; last time the Redbirds started a game that way was when Curt Flood and Gene Freese led off with home runs off a guy named Sandy Koufax, on August 17, 1958.

1— Colorado Rockies gave Charlie Blackmon a 6-year, $108M contract, so he is staying in the friendly confines of Coors Field and will never, ever get traded in our fantasy league.

**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 08:40 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 5

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GOLDEN STATE (57 - 21) at INDIANA (46 - 32) - 4/5/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-43 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 45-33 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 128-92 ATS (+26.8 Units) in April games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (48 - 30) at HOUSTON (63 - 15) - 4/5/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 5-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (42 - 36) at CLEVELAND (48 - 30) - 4/5/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 34-42 ATS (-12.2 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 30-47 ATS (-21.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 18-41 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (25 - 53) at MILWAUKEE (42 - 36) - 4/5/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 43-34 ATS (+5.6 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 35-26 ATS (+6.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
BROOKLYN is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games this season.
BROOKLYN is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BROOKLYN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 72-89 ATS (-25.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 86-118 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-0 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (42 - 36) at UTAH (45 - 33) - 4/5/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 221-276 ATS (-82.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
UTAH is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 9-8 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-8 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (44 - 34) at DENVER (43 - 35) - 4/5/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 71-86 ATS (-23.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 32-46 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 368-436 ATS (-111.6 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
DENVER is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-5 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 08:41 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 5

Golden State won six of last eight games with Indiana; Warriors are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Under is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Golden State won its last three games; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as road favorites. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Pacers won five of their last six games; they’re 5-6 as home underdogs. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Rockets won six of last seven games with Portland; over is 7-1 in last eight series games. Blazers 2-2 vs spread in last four games in Houston. Portland won four of its last six games; they’re 5-0 vs spread in last five games as road underdogs. Over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Houston won nine of its last ten games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under.

Road team won last six Washington-Cleveland games; Wizards covered three of their last four visits to Ohio (under 3-1). Wizards lost six of their last eight games; they’re 11-5 as road underdogs. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Cavaliers won nine of their last ten games; they covered last three games as home favorites. Last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Bucks won their last ten games with Brooklyn (7-3 vs spread); Nets are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Milwaukee. Four of last five series games stayed under. Brooklyn lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 in last six games as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under. Bucks won five of their last seven games; they’re 0-10 vs spread in last 10 games as home favorites. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games.

Clippers lost five of last seven games with the Jazz; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Utah. Three of last four series games went over. Clippers won four of their last six games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Utah won four of its last five games; they’re 0-5 vs spread in last five games as home favorites. Six of last seven Jazz games went over.

Minnesota won its last four games with the Nuggets; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Timberwolves are 4-5 in their last nine games; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as road underdogs. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nuggets won their last three games by total of 7 points; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as home favorites. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 08:45 AM

NBA

Thursday, April 5

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Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Golden State is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Golden State's last 17 games
Golden State is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Golden State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Golden State is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Golden State is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indiana's last 18 games
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Indiana is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
Indiana is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing at home against Golden State

Washington Wizards
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Washington is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 12 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Cleveland is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing at home against Washington

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 13-3-2 ATS in its last 18 games
Portland is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 9 games
Portland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Portland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Portland's last 15 games on the road
Portland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games when playing Houston
Portland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 15 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Portland
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Portland
Houston is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Portland

Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Brooklyn is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Brooklyn's last 10 games on the road
Brooklyn is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Brooklyn's last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
Brooklyn is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 13 games
Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 15 games when playing Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games
LA Clippers is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Utah
LA Clippers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Utah
LA Clippers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
LA Clippers is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Utah
LA Clippers is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Utah's last 13 games at home
Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
Utah is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
Utah is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Clippers
Utah is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Minnesota's last 23 games
Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Minnesota is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 11 games at home
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Denver is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 09:59 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 5

Boston @ Toronto

Game 501-502
April 4, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
117.734
Toronto
127.619
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 10
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7 1/2
206
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-7 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Detroit

Game 503-504
April 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
127.096
Detroit
121.401
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-1 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Orlando

Game 505-506
April 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
114.089
Orlando
115.125
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 1
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
202 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(+1 1/2); Over

Miami @ Atlanta

Game 507-508
April 4, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
118.502
Atlanta
112.447
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 8 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+8 1/2); Over

Memphis @ New Orleans

Game 509-510
April 4, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
107.645
New Orleans
122.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 15
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 12
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-12); Under

San Antonio @ LA Lakers

Game 511-512
April 4, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
124.462
LA Lakers
116.895
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 7 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 6
208
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-6); Over

**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 02:04 PM

NBA

Thursday, April 5

Total Streaks

*The Under is 34-16-1 in the Pacers’ last 51 games.
*The Under is 5-0 in the Cavs’ last five games.
*The Over is 21-5 in the last 26 games between the Rockets and Blazers.
*The Over is 13-3 in the Bucks’ last 16 games.
*The Over is 6-1 in Utah’s last seven games.
*The Over is 9-2 in the Nuggets’ last 11 home games.
*The Over is 17-6 in the Wolves’ last 23 games.

Injury of Note

Damian Lillard is out for the Blazers tonight at Houston because of a bad ankle. The All-Start point guard is averaging 26.7 points and 6.6 assists this season. He missed a game last week because of the birth of his child and the Blazers lost to the lowly Memphis Grizzlies without him. Portland is 4-2-1 ATS without Lillard in the lineup this season and is a 10.5-point underdog against the Rockets tonight.

Trends

*The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against East opponents.
*The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Cavs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
*The Bucks are 8-21-3 ATS in their last 32 home games.
*The Wolves are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games.

**Udog** · 04-05-2018, 02:07 PM

Three-year, late-season Under trend a boom for NBA bettors
Ashton Grewal

The Sacramento Kings are running out the corpse of Vince Carter in their starting lineup. The lack of offensive talent on the floor late in the season could be one reason for all the Unders in the league.

It takes a special type of sports bettor to wager on NFL games in August and a dedicated NBA fan to bet on pro hoops in late March and early April. But just like NFL preseason, there are opportunities to exploit the books even with unpredictable lineups and team motivation.

The Under is 33-25 in NBA games over the last eight days and it's not an isolated incident. The Under is 494-423-26 in March and April games since 2016. There are a few reasons for the three-year trend.

The schedule this time of year is a little more condensed with heavier doses of teams playing on back-to-back nights. Nine of the 12 teams in action on Wednesday had played the previous night.

The New Orleans Pelicans had a stretch last month when they played five games in six nights. The Under is 4-0 in their games since completing that congested portion of their sked. It’s a long season and a crappy time to pile playing days on the tired legs of the players.

This is also a time when you see more bench warmers and fringe players see heavier floor time. Teams like the Houston Rockets have nothing left to play for and lottery-bound sides are looking to improve their odds with additional losses.

We all remember the Mark Madsen game back in 2006. Giving the green light to shoot to a big man who can't isn't going to help an offense. Teams are finding new ways to decrease their chances of winning in the new collective bargaining agreement according to Dunc’d On podcast host Nate Duncan.

It makes sense than that fewer points will be scored in games with G-League level talent. Check out the crunch-time lineups the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic used on Wednesday night.

So we know the reasons games are going Under the total late in the NBA regular season. Now let’s take a look at the best Under bets in the league right now. All Over/Under records are since the beginning March 1st.

Indiana Pacers

Over/Under: 4-13

The Pacers, somewhat ironically, are playing with the slowest tempo in the league over the last 15 games. They’re offensive ranks 20th in the league and they like to shoot a lot of long 2-pointers instead of a couples steps back behind the arc. They attempted the second fewest triples per game last month.

Sacramento Kings

Over/Under: 5-13

The Kings were competing with the Cavaliers for the worst defense in the league for much of the first half of the season, but things have improved. Sacramento’s defense ranked 17th in the Association in March and is allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions in the last 15 games.

Sac-Town doesn’t have to do anything special to trot out Washington General-level of hoopers. The Kings started 41-year-old Vince Carter on Tuesday against the Phoenix Suns.

Orlando Magic

Over/Under: 5-12

The Magic were averaging 105.5 points per game before the All-Star break and 98.8 since. Over the last 15 games, they’re averaging a league-worst 95.2 points per game. The problem with Orlando is that its best player Aaron Gordon is like Shawn Marion. Both great athletes but best suited to be paired with a skilled point guard to get the best out of them. Gordon doesn’t have that in D.J. Augustin.

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/5

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/5

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