Announcement

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:11 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds on teams to make the playoffs this season:

Washington Nationals: Yes -$700, No +$500

Toronto Blue Jays: Yes +$250, No -$310

Texas Rangers: Yes +$500, No -$700

Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +$800, No -$1,400

St Louis Cardinals: Yes even, No -$120

Seattle Mariners: Yes +$200, No -$250

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) I love numbers, but the analytics revolution in baseball is overdone. There is no way you can quantify a player’s value to the team with a single number— too many variables are involved that cannot be and never will be able to be measured. Here is one example that actually happened:

Two years ago, Player A and Player B were teammates; Player A was getting paid to wear a certain make of spikes, but he wasn’t wearing them. One day, while Player A was talking to the sales rep from the company that was paying him, Player B comes over and tells the sales rep that Player A isn’t wearing his company’s spikes. A fight ensues in the clubhouse.

Player B gets his ass kicked and goes on the DL; Player A gets suspended and the team suffers, since they weren’t very good to begin with and they were now without two decent hitters.

So, analytics people, quantify that for me; make that a part of WAR, when a guy is such a cruddy teammate that his teammate is provoked into kicking his butt!?!? These players live/travel together from March-September. Being a good teammate is an underrated variable.

12) March 22, 2014, the Astros released JD Martinez, just let him walk. He’s hit 128 HR’s in the four years since, and now makes $22M a year in Boston. Astros are now World Champs, despite giving away a player of Martinez’ ability- they’ve won 271 games the last three years. Go figure.

11) Pitt Panthers named Duke assistant Jeff Capel their new head basketball coach; he was previously head coach at VCU, Oklahoma before spending seven years as a Duke assistant. Capel was 79-41 as VCU’s coach (50-22 in conference), 83-69 at Oklahoma (33-43 in conference).

10) Detroit Lions team president Rod Wood said a main reason Detroit didn’t win its bid to host the NFL Draft this year was a date conflict at Ford Field with a robotics convention. Oy.

Detroit also has to start the 2018 season on the road because Ford Field is booked for a concert on September 9— Ed Sheeran, whose concert tour is messing with the first half of the NFL schedule in several cities.

9) When basketball Hall of Famer Bill Walton was in high school/college, he once went 5.5 years without losing a game. His HS team won its last 16 games his junior year and he didn’t lose again until the second half of his senior year at UCLA.

8) Las Vegas Golden Knights were 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup when their first NHL season started back in October. Now they’re 7-1 to win the Cup. Best expansion season ever in any of the four major sports.

St Louis Blues made the Stanley Cup finals in 1968, but that was when the league expanded from 6 to 12 teams and the six new teams were all in the West, so one of them had to make the finals.

7) Interesting quirk to this year’s baseball schedule; A’s visit San Francisco the last three games before the All-Star break, then the Giants visit Oakland the first three games after the break.

6) Louisville paid a search firm $150,000 to find its new athletic director- they wound up hiring the guy who was the interim AD. So they gave a search firm $150K to hire the guy who was already in the job. Something is amiss…….

5) Speaking of the Cardinals, Louisville hired Xavier coach Chris Mack as its new basketball coach, which is a kick in the teeth to the Big East. Mack is a Xavier alum who was a 2-year captain of the Musketeers, but as the saying goes, “Whenever you don’t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.”

Mack was making just under $1.7M a year at Xavier; he’s making $4M now. His wife is from Louisville, but the $4M was the deal-maker, for sure.

4) Does New Jersey Giants coach Pat Shurmur have special insight into college players in this year’s draft? His son Kyle is Vanderbilt’s quarterback, who played against NC State LB Bradley Chubb in the 2016 independence Bowl. Giants may very well draft Chubb next month.

3) Butler/Florida will play a home/home basketball series the next two years; the series was negotiated by the two head coaches……on Twitter. Welcome to 2018.

2) ESPN had a mike on Mookie Betts while he was playing right field for the Red Sox Tuesday; as a ball was hit over his head into the corner, he says, “I ain’t getting this one, boys.” They were talking to him in between pitches while the game was going on. Good TV, but one more example of how spring training might be a little too long.

1) Former major league catcher Paul Loduca was on TVG as a horse race handicapper; he likes gambling. Here are his over/under team win total picks for 2018:
Twins, over 83.5 wins
Red Sox, over 91.5 wins
Rockies, over 81.5 wins
Cardinals, under 86 wins

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:19 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 28

Illinois-Chicago @ Liberty

Game 723-724
March 28, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois-Chicago
53.483
Liberty
54.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 1
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 6 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois-Chicago
(+6 1/2); Under

Sam Houston St @ Northern Colorado

Game 725-726
March 28, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sam Houston St
53.683
Northern Colorado
58.783
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Colorado
by 5
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Colorado
by 10 1/2
149
Dunkel Pick:
Sam Houston St
(+10 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ North Texas

Game 517-518
March 28, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
55.056
North Texas
61.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Texas
by 6 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 3
141
Dunkel Pick:
North Texas
(-3); Over

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 28

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SAN FRANCISCO (22 - 15) at N TEXAS (18 - 18) - 3/28/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IL-CHICAGO (19 - 15) at LIBERTY (22 - 14) - 3/28/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IL-CHICAGO is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAM HOUSTON ST (21 - 14) at N COLORADO (24 - 12) - 3/28/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games this season.
N COLORADO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N COLORADO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
N COLORADO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N COLORADO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N COLORADO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N COLORADO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
N COLORADO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 28

Game 2, best-of-3 series (USF leads, 1-0)
San Francisco made 14-33 on arc in 72-62 home win over North Texas Monday; Dons won 8 of last 10 games- they won last four games overall, by 4-5-3-10 points. USF played four starters 35:00+ Monday; they’re #264 experience team that plays pace #234. UNT lost 8 of its last 12 games; they played three starters 36:00+ in game they trailed 46-30 at halftime. Mean Green is #287 experience team that plays pace #201- they’re 8-7 outside C-USA. North Texas lost its last seven games that they scored less than 80 points in- they won three of last four at home. USF lost four of its last six road games; this is their first true road game since Feb 10. Gonzaga (2), Long Beach State are only teams to score 80+ vs USF this season.

Ill-Chicago and Liberty are both the Flames. UIC is 11-4 in its last 15 games, winning last seven true road games; they’re 5-8 outside Horizon League, 2-12 vs teams ranked in top 200, beating Oakland/Austin Peay. UIC is #286 experience team that plays pace #21- they turn ball over 20.8% of time. Liberty lost Big South title game at buzzer, their only loss in last six games; they won five of last six home games. Liberty is 9-4 outside Big South; they’re #306 experience team that plays slow pace (#343). Liberty is 8-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200.

Sam Houston State won three of its last four games overall, three of last five on road; they’re #20 experience team that plays pace ##242. Bearkats are 5-7 vs D-I teams outside Southland Conference- they also had four wins vs non-D-I teams. State isn’t a good offensive team (#290 eFG%); they shoot 47% inside arc, 33.5% outside arc- they lost by 9 at Idaho in only Big Sky game this season. Northern Colorado won eight of its last ten games overall, four in row on road. Bears are 8-4 outside Big Sky, winning last game at San Diego- they’re #129 experience team that plays pace #33.

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 28

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Trend Report
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UIC @ LIBERTY
UIC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
UIC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

SAN FRANCISCO @ NORTH TEXAS
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of North Texas's last 10 games
North Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

SAM HOUSTON STATE @ NORTHERN COLORADO
Northern Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northern Colorado is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

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**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 10:49 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 31

Loyola-Chicago @ Michigan

Game 811-812
March 31, 2018 @ 6:06 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
69.813
Michigan
79.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 9 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 5
128 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-5); Over

Kansas @ Villanova

Game 813-814
March 31, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas
74.546
Villanova
71.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 5
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-5); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 31

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LOYOLA-IL (32 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN (32 - 7) - 3/31/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (31 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (34 - 4) - 3/31/2018, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 113-79 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
KANSAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 58-30 ATS (+25.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
KANSAS is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Announcement

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/28

Wednesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/28

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