Announcement

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:10 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds on teams to make the playoffs this season:

Washington Nationals: Yes -$700, No +$500

Toronto Blue Jays: Yes +$250, No -$310

Texas Rangers: Yes +$500, No -$700

Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +$800, No -$1,400

St Louis Cardinals: Yes even, No -$120

Seattle Mariners: Yes +$200, No -$250

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) I love numbers, but the analytics revolution in baseball is overdone. There is no way you can quantify a player’s value to the team with a single number— too many variables are involved that cannot be and never will be able to be measured. Here is one example that actually happened:

Two years ago, Player A and Player B were teammates; Player A was getting paid to wear a certain make of spikes, but he wasn’t wearing them. One day, while Player A was talking to the sales rep from the company that was paying him, Player B comes over and tells the sales rep that Player A isn’t wearing his company’s spikes. A fight ensues in the clubhouse.

Player B gets his ass kicked and goes on the DL; Player A gets suspended and the team suffers, since they weren’t very good to begin with and they were now without two decent hitters.

So, analytics people, quantify that for me; make that a part of WAR, when a guy is such a cruddy teammate that his teammate is provoked into kicking his butt!?!? These players live/travel together from March-September. Being a good teammate is an underrated variable.

12) March 22, 2014, the Astros released JD Martinez, just let him walk. He’s hit 128 HR’s in the four years since, and now makes $22M a year in Boston. Astros are now World Champs, despite giving away a player of Martinez’ ability- they’ve won 271 games the last three years. Go figure.

11) Pitt Panthers named Duke assistant Jeff Capel their new head basketball coach; he was previously head coach at VCU, Oklahoma before spending seven years as a Duke assistant. Capel was 79-41 as VCU’s coach (50-22 in conference), 83-69 at Oklahoma (33-43 in conference).

10) Detroit Lions team president Rod Wood said a main reason Detroit didn’t win its bid to host the NFL Draft this year was a date conflict at Ford Field with a robotics convention. Oy.

Detroit also has to start the 2018 season on the road because Ford Field is booked for a concert on September 9— Ed Sheeran, whose concert tour is messing with the first half of the NFL schedule in several cities.

9) When basketball Hall of Famer Bill Walton was in high school/college, he once went 5.5 years without losing a game. His HS team won its last 16 games his junior year and he didn’t lose again until the second half of his senior year at UCLA.

8) Las Vegas Golden Knights were 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup when their first NHL season started back in October. Now they’re 7-1 to win the Cup. Best expansion season ever in any of the four major sports.

St Louis Blues made the Stanley Cup finals in 1968, but that was when the league expanded from 6 to 12 teams and the six new teams were all in the West, so one of them had to make the finals.

7) Interesting quirk to this year’s baseball schedule; A’s visit San Francisco the last three games before the All-Star break, then the Giants visit Oakland the first three games after the break.

6) Louisville paid a search firm $150,000 to find its new athletic director- they wound up hiring the guy who was the interim AD. So they gave a search firm $150K to hire the guy who was already in the job. Something is amiss…….

5) Speaking of the Cardinals, Louisville hired Xavier coach Chris Mack as its new basketball coach, which is a kick in the teeth to the Big East. Mack is a Xavier alum who was a 2-year captain of the Musketeers, but as the saying goes, “Whenever you don’t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.”

Mack was making just under $1.7M a year at Xavier; he’s making $4M now. His wife is from Louisville, but the $4M was the deal-maker, for sure.

4) Does New Jersey Giants coach Pat Shurmur have special insight into college players in this year’s draft? His son Kyle is Vanderbilt’s quarterback, who played against NC State LB Bradley Chubb in the 2016 independence Bowl. Giants may very well draft Chubb next month.

3) Butler/Florida will play a home/home basketball series the next two years; the series was negotiated by the two head coaches……on Twitter. Welcome to 2018.

2) ESPN had a mike on Mookie Betts while he was playing right field for the Red Sox Tuesday; as a ball was hit over his head into the corner, he says, “I ain’t getting this one, boys.” They were talking to him in between pitches while the game was going on. Good TV, but one more example of how spring training might be a little too long.

1) Former major league catcher Paul Loduca was on TVG as a horse race handicapper; he likes gambling. Here are his over/under team win total picks for 2018:
Twins, over 83.5 wins
Red Sox, over 91.5 wins
Rockies, over 81.5 wins
Cardinals, under 86 wins

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:26 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 28

Home side won last seven Brooklyn-Orlando games; Nets are 2-2-1 vs spread in last five visits to the Magic Kingdom. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Nets lost six of their last eight games; they’re 0-1 as road favorites this year. Five of their last six games went over the total. Orlando lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as home underdogs. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Knicks lost their last three games with Philly; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five games in this building. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. New York lost seven of its last ten games; they’re 6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. 76ers won their last seven games, covered last five; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorites. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

Cavaliers won their last eight games with the Hornets (6-1-1 vs spread); Cleveland covered four of last five visits to Charlotte. Seven of last nine series games went over. Cavaliers won five of their last six games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Six of their last nine games went over total. Charlotte won its last three games; they’re 0-9 vs spread in last nine games as home underdogs. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Minnesota won four of its last five games with Atlanta; last four series games stayed under the total. Hawks are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to the Twin Cities. Atlanta lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under. Timberwolves lost four of their last six games; they’re 10-3 in last 13 games as home favorites. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Blazers won four of lat six games with Memphis; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six visits here. four of last five series games stayed under the total. Portland won 15 of its last 17 games; they’re 7-5 as road favorites this season. Three of their last four games went over the total. Grizzlies lost 23 of their last 25 games; they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdogs. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Celtics won seven of last ten games with the Jazz; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to SLC. Four of last five series games went over total. Boston won its last four games, covered five of its last seven; they’re 12-2 as road underdogs. Five of their last six games stayed under. Jazz won 11 of their last 13 games; they’re 5-4 in last nine games as home favorites. Four of their last five games went over the total.

Clippers won their last seven games with Phoenix (6-1 vs spread); over is 5-3 in last eight series games. LA is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to the desert. Clippers won three of their last four games; they’re 6-1 vs spread as road favorites. Clippers’ last three games stayed under the total.Suns lost their last 12 games; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as home underdogs. Last four Phoenix games stayed under.

Lakers lost eight of last ten games with Dallas; three of last four series games went over. Mavs are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games played here. Dallas lost five of its last six games; they’re 3-2 in last five games as road underdogs, 6-6 if they played night before. Four of their last five games went over. Lakers lost five of their last six games; they’re 6-5 as home favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under.

**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 08:26 AM

NBA

Wednesday, March 28

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Trend Report
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BROOKLYN @ ORLANDO
Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 7 games on the road
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 11 games

CLEVELAND @ CHARLOTTE
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA
New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New York's last 16 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

PORTLAND @ MEMPHIS
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games at home

ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games on the road
Minnesota is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

BOSTON @ UTAH
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
Utah is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

LA CLIPPERS @ PHOENIX
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games

DALLAS @ LA LAKERS
Dallas is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing LA Lakers
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 03-28-2018, 10:40 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 28

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BROOKLYN (23 - 51) at ORLANDO (22 - 51) - 3/28/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 41-32 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games this season.
BROOKLYN is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 66-86 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 23-38 ATS (-18.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-5 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (27 - 48) at PHILADELPHIA (43 - 30) - 3/28/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 42-31 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (44 - 30) at CHARLOTTE (34 - 41) - 3/28/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
CLEVELAND is 15-41 ATS (-30.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
CHARLOTTE is 31-40 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CHARLOTTE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 7-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 9-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (21 - 53) at MINNESOTA (42 - 33) - 3/28/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (46 - 28) at MEMPHIS (20 - 54) - 3/28/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 5-4 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (51 - 23) at UTAH (42 - 32) - 3/28/2018, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
BOSTON is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 143-107 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-2 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (40 - 34) at PHOENIX (19 - 56) - 3/28/2018, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (23 - 51) at LA LAKERS (32 - 41) - 3/28/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/28

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/28

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