Announcement

**Udog** · 03-27-2018, 08:24 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds on teams to make the playoffs this season:

Chicago Cubs: Yes -$310, No +$280

Boston Red Sox: Yes -$310, No +$250

Arizona Diamondbacks: Yes +$115, No -$135

Cleveland Indians: Yes -$1,100, No +$700

Los Angeles Angels: Yes +$145, No -$170

Miami Marlins: Yes +4,000, No -$20,000

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) Allow me to start today with a rant……

Texas-Arlington’s basketball team went 72-33 the last three years, 37-19 in conference games, but they didn’t win the Sun Belt tourney in the last 10 years- their only NCAA appearance was in 2008, which was the second year as head coach for Scott Cross, a UTA alum.

Tex-Arlington fired Cross Monday, after a 21-13 season when the Mavericks had the most experienced team in America, starting five seniors. Why?

Firing a mid-major coach who is an alumnus and is an honest guy (the school’s statement went out of its way to say so) and who won 72 games the last three years? No bueno.

You wonder why coaches break the rules so they can win? Stuff like that is why……

12) Whoever the next coach is at Arlington has a full rebuild on his hands; of the eight players who played in the Sun Belt final vs Georgia State, seven were seniors.

11) I saw this on Twitter Monday night and I’m borrowing (stealing) it. The only seven players who hit 2+ homers in an Opening Day game more than once:

Adam Dunn, Juan Gonzalez, Eddie Mathews, Raul Mondesi, Xavier Nady, Albert Pujols, Joe Torre.

10) Bronx 1B Greg Bird is out 6-8 weeks because of an ankle injury that requires surgery; they could move Neil Walker to 1B and play young Tyler Wade at 2B.

9) I’m watching Billions on Showtime (a great show) Sunday night and one of the characters goes into a New York City deli and orders an egg cream, which looks like a milkshake but I have no idea what it really is. It looked good, so I did some research.

Several people I asked had no idea what I was talking about, but my cousin hooked me up with some knowledge: 1/2 cup of whole milk, one cup of seltzer, two tablespoons of chocolate syrup.

I’ll report back when I have one of these and let you know if they’re any good. My cousin says they’re great.

8) There are 32 NFL teams, two coordinators per team. Of those 64 high-paying jobs, 31 of them have changed hands since last season ended. Football coaches are nomads.

7) Los Angeles Rams signed Ndamukong Suh to a 1-year, $14M deal; Rams had 6th-most cap space in the league before this signing- their defensive line should be really good.

6) ESPN’s Chris Mortensen predicts the college QB’s will be drafted in this order next month:

“Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Rosen”

Surprising to me that Mayfield passed Rosen, since Rosen is considered the best pure passer of the rookie QB’s right now. As always, the draft will be interesting.

5) NASCAR race got snowed out in Virginia Sunday; weird having a car race live on TV at 2:00 on a Monday afternoon.

4) RIP Wayne Huizenga, 80; he founded three Fortune 500 companies (Waste Management , Blockbuster and AutoNation), and also owned the Dolphins-Marlins-Florida Panthers.

RIP Zeke Upshaw 26, a player in the G-League who collapsed during a game last week and later passed away, apparently due to heart failure.

3) Sounds like Tubby Smith will surface as the coach at High Point, his alma mater. Panthers fired former North Carolina player Scott Cherry after nine years as coach, despite his going 68-36 in Big South games the last six years.

2) According to the Associated Press, the average salary in major league baseball is on track to be around the same as last year’s $4.45 million, maybe slightly higher.

1— Daytime television is horrendous, except for March, when MLB Network shows spring training games every day. With baseball season starting Thursday, that’ll be the end of good daytime TV for 11 months. Unless you like politics, but I’m not one of those people.

**Udog** · 03-27-2018, 08:29 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 27

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W KENTUCKY (27 - 10) vs. UTAH (22 - 11) - 3/27/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 61-33 ATS (+24.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 52-26 ATS (+23.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
W KENTUCKY is 61-33 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
W KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSISSIPPI ST (25 - 11) vs. PENN ST (24 - 13) - 3/27/2018, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 27

Tuesday’s NIT games (New York City)
Western Kentucky/Utah are both long way from home; Hilltoppers won games at Oklahoma State/USC last week to get here- they’re #155 experience team that plays pace #143 and is 10-5 outside C-USA. WKU won 11 of its last 14 games; they won by 4 at USC (playing without Metu) in only Pac-12 game this season. Utah is 11-3 outside Pac-12; they won in OT at St Mary’s in last game to get here. Utes won nine of last 11 games; they’re #33 experience team that plays pace #299. Utah gets 37.8% of its points behind arc; WKU opponents shot 36.1% behind arc to this point (#237).

Penn State figures to have large crowd edge playing in NYC; Nittany Lions won five of last six games, winning last two games at Notre Dame/Marquette to get here. Penn St is making third trip to NYC this season- they lost 98-87 to Texas A&M in Brooklyn in only SEC game this year, won two of three in Big 14 tourney on this floor earlier this month. Lions are #244 experience team that plays pace #211. Mississippi State won games at Baylor/Louisville to get here; they’re #325 experience team that plays pace #214. Bulldogs beat Nebraska at home by 7 in only Big 14 game this season.

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 27

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Trend Report
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WESTERN KENTUCKY @ UTAH
Western Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

MISSISSIPPI STATE @ PENN STATE
Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

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**Udog** · 03-27-2018, 08:51 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 27

Western Kentucky @ Utah

Game 777-778
March 27, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
67.869
Utah
68.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 2
142
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+2); Under

Mississippi State @ Penn State

Game 779-780
March 27, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi State
71.096
Penn State
69.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi State
by 1 1/2
129
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 3
137
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi State
(+3); Under

**Udog** · 03-27-2018, 11:21 AM

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
Monty Andrews

You won't find many weaknesses on the Villanova Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-5, 128.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Wolverines' elite ball security

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were staring at insurmountable odds to reach the Final Four heading into the NCAA Tournament - and yet, here they are, just two wins away from the most improbable collegiate title in history. But the Ramblers still have work to do as they take on the favored Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night in San Antonio. Loyola-Chicago will need to do plenty right to advance to Monday's title game - starting with taking extra-good care of the basketball.

Hot shooting and timely defense has been the trademark of the Ramblers' run to the Final Four in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in more than three decades - but those proficiencies have also masked significant struggles when it comes to turnovers. Loyola-Chicago upended Kansas State 78-62 in Elite Eight action despite losing the turnover battle 15-6 - an extension of its regular-season woes, when it finished outside the top 250 nationally in percentage of possessions leading to a TO (17.3).

It isn't enough that the Wolverines boast one of the top scoring defenses in the nation (63.1 points per game against, eighth-fewest in the country). Michigan also takes care of the ball as well as any team in Division I. The Wolverines commit an average of 9.2 turnovers per contest; only Virginia (8.5) has been better. Michigan will be content to play a plodding, slow-paced game and take advantage of the Ramblers' turnovers - and given past history, there could be a lot of them.

Ramblers' dynamic discipline vs. Wolverines' free-throw aversion

Loyola-Chicago is one of only four No. 11 seeds to reach the Final Four - and the South Region champions don't intend to stop there. But oddsmakers aren't so sure the tournament Cinderella has much magic left in it; Bet365 has the Ramblers installed as a +900 longshot to win the championship. That said, all four teams have played well enough to win the title - including Loyola-Chicago, which can prevail against the imposing Wolverines if it continues to be one of the country's most disciplined teams.

It's hard enough to boast a top-five scoring defense as the Ramblers do (62.4 ppg against) - but to do so without sending opponents to the free-throw line is truly impressive. Loyola-Chicago is one of only three NCAA teams to limit opponents to fewer than 10 made free throws per game, and its 13.9 attempts surrendered per game are sixth-fewest in the country. And that stinginess has extended to the NCAA Tournament, with the Ramblers allowing an average of 11.3 free-throw attempts in their first four games.

That number probably won't climb much - if at all - against a Wolverines team that was positively dreadful at getting to the foul line during the season, averaging just 11.5 makes (312th overall) on 17.4 attempts (271st). And even if Michigan can find a way to draw fouls against the Ramblers, there's no guarantee it will capitalize; the Wolverines have shot an abysmal 66.2 percent from the free-throw line so far this season, good for 321st overall. If this one comes down to free throws, Loyola-Chicago has the edge.

Villanova Wildcats (1) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (1) (+5, 155.5)

Villanova's free-throw bonanza vs. Jayhawks' foul-shot foibles

While the left side of the NCAA Tournament bracket was full of stunning upsets and unpredictable finishes, the right side played out exactly as the bracketeers imagined - with the top seeds prevailing in the East and Midwest Regions, respectively, to set up a 1-vs.-1 Final Four matchup Saturday in San Antonio. But oddsmakers consider the Villanova Wildcats more worthy of a No. 1 seed, making them a comfortable fave vs. the Kansas Jayhawks thanks in some part to a considerable edge at the free-throw line.

You won't find many weaknesses on the Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game while ranking sixth in field-goal percentage (49.9) and 19th in 3-point success rate (40 percent). The Wildcats are also as automatic as they come when it comes to free throws, converting at a 78-percent clip through 38 games - good for eighth in the country. If Kansas puts Villanova on the line, the result could be devastating.

The same most certainly cannot be said for the Jayhawks, who have been a below-average free-throw-shooting team for most of the season (70.5 percent, 215th overall) - and it nearly derailed their national title hopes twice, as they shot just 69.2 percent in a four-point win over Seton Hall and 63.6 percent in a four-point triumph over Clemson. They can ill afford a similar showing Saturday against a Villanova team that has proven to be one of the top-shooting teams in the nation.

Wildcats' mediocre assist prevention vs. Jayhawks' sensational ball distribution

Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are the oddsmakers' choice to claim the national championship, installed at -105 on Bet365; Michigan is next at +260, while the Jayhawks sit third at +350 despite being the top seed in the Midwest Region. But while Villanova is far and away the top remaining team in the tournament, it's not perfect - and if the Jayhawks can take advantage of the edge they have in the ball distribution department, they might be in line for the upset.

It might seem like nit-picking, but the Wildcats have not been great at defending opposing passers. Villanova surrenders 13.6 assists per game - ranking 189th overall - and surrenders an assist on 53.1 percent of opposing shots made, placing it outside the top 200 in that category. And good passing was the key to beating the Wildcats during the regular season; Villanova surrendered an average of 16.5 assists while allowing a helper on 56.4 percent of opponents' made shots in their four losses.

If Jayhawks bettors are looking for reason for optimism, this is the place to start. The Jayhawks average a whopping 16.9 assists per contest, the 13th-best mark in the country. And while their 0.564 assists per made field goal ranks just 77th overall, they're a top-20 team in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.43). And that sensational ball movement is heating up as the tournament goes on, with Kansas recording 52 assists over its past three games. Look for the Jayhawks to spread the ball around at will Saturday night.

**BettorsChat** · 03-27-2018, 12:52 PM

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Western Kentucky's last 13 games

Utah Utes
Utah is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 7 games

Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games

Announcement

Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/27

Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/27

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