Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/26

[Udog]

Sagarin links have all been fixed.

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Monday, March 26

Good Luck on day #85 of 2018!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup Links

NCAAB SAGARIN RATINGS

NCAAB Matchups

NCAAB Hot and Not

NCAAB Database


SPORTS MATCHUPS

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

How low-seeded teams have done in national semi-finals:

2006: George Mason (11-seed) lost 73-58 to Florida (-6)

2011: VCU (11-seed) lost 70-62 to Butler (-2.5)

2016: Syracuse (10-seed) lost 83-66 to North Carolina (-9.5)

2013; Wichita St (9-seed) lost 72-68 to Louisville (-10)

2000: Wisconsin (8-seed) lost 53-41 to Michigan St (-8)

2000: North Carolina (8-seed) lost 71-59 to Florida (-5)

2011: Butler (8-seed) beat VCU 70-62 (-2.5)

2014: Kentucky (8-seed) beat Wisconsin 74-73 (+1)


**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend

13) Kansas 85, Duke 81 OT— Jayhawks were 13-36 on arc in this game, 17-33 inside the arc; Newman scored 32 points and Kansas is headed to the Alamo for the Final Four.

Grayson Allen went 3-13 in his last college game; Mavin Bagley was 5-9 in 44:00- if you’re coaching Duke, you’re sick that Bagley got only nine shots in a game this close, especially since he’ll never play for Duke again.

12) Villanova 71, Texas Tech 59— Wildcats were 29-35 on foul line; Tech was 14-18 in game where teams combined to go 9-44 on arc. Villanova is in Final Four for second time in three years; they’re 11-1 in last 12 NCAA tournament games.

11) Final Four pointspreads:
Michigan (-5.5) over Loyola-Chicago
Villanova (-5) over Kansas

10) Since 1987, when two #1-seeds play in the national semifinals, the underdogs are 8-2 against the spread.

9) Was thinking about Gonzaga’s potential move to the Mountain West; I have no idea why they would do that. Gonzaga doesn’t have football, so their TV deal for basketball would only net them an additional $375,000 a year— not much at all.

Mountain West is a better league, but hardly a power league; only reason they got two teams in the NCAA’s this year is because Nevada got beat in the conference tournament. Gonzaga is the king of the WCC; its good to be the king- they’re like UNLV was in the Big West during the peak years of Jerry Tarkanian’s coaching tenure in Las Vegas.

To me, adding Gonzaga would really help the Mountain West, not sure how it helps Gonzaga.

8) Saturday night, Florida State was down 58-54 in the last 0:15; they missed a 3-pointer, then didn’t foul in the last 10 or 11 seconds, and Michigan ran out the clock.

The non-foul occurred right in front of the FSU bench; it seemed like someone on the bench told the Seminole player not to foul, so they let the game end, despite a foul giving them a (very small) chance to win the game. A small chance is still a chance; it happens. Ask Louisville.

As you know, I spend a ridiculous amount of time watching college basketball; can’t remember a situation like this happening before, especially a team whose season ends with a loss. Why give up?

Leonard Hamilton wasn’t happy when he was asked about it after the game. If I was the AD at Florida State, I’d be asking him about it again when we met back in Tallahassee.

7) Duke was down five with 0:11 left in OT Sunday; unlike Florida State, they fouled.

6) Atlanta Braves cut P Scott Kazmir, eating $16M he is owed this year. Kazmir had a rough outing Saturday, blamed it on a 90-100 bullpen session he threw Wednesday, saying he didn’t know he’d be pitching Saturday. Now he is out of a job, though he still gets paid.

5) Phillies gave 2B prospect Scott Kingery a 6-year, $24M contract, which eliminates service time as an issue in making Kingery a major leaguer right now.

Lot of teams delay bringing their prospects up to the majors, to delay their arbitration years from kicking in.

4) Then there is Arizona, which sent OF Yasmany Tomas down to AAA, despite owing him $46M over the next three years. RF Stephen Souza is on the DL and they still sent Tomas down, which tells us they’re pretty sour on him.

3) Twins’ coach Howard Johnson, the old Mets’ 3B, broke bones in his face this weekend when he was hit by a foul ball in the Minnesota dugout. Hope he is feeling better soon.

2) I’m still wondering why the Red Sox fired Terry Francona; Boston averaged 93 wins a year under Francona, winning two World Series with no losing seasons- they were 90-72 his last year, albeit with some off-field hijinx that had people saying Francona ran too loose a ship.

They’ve won one World Series in six years since he left and now have an entry-level manager in Alex Cora. Curious decision.

1— Mets manager Mickey Callaway is the 49th major league pitcher who later became a major league manager. Pitching is obviously the most essential element of baseball; you’d think more former pitchers would’ve become managers.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, March 26


North Texas @ San Francisco

Game 741-742
March 26, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Texas
54.238
San Francisco
60.784
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 6 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
137 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-3 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, March 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N TEXAS (18 - 17) at SAN FRANCISCO (21 - 15) - 3/26/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N TEXAS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
N TEXAS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games this season.
N TEXAS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
N TEXAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N TEXAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N TEXAS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 90-129 ATS (-51.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-128 ATS (-52.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-81 ATS (-32.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 26

Game 1, best-of-3 series
North Texas scored 92 ppg in winning its first three tourney games, after losing seven of last eight C-USA games; Mean Green is #285 experience team that plays pace #211- they’re 8-6 outside C-USA, with an OT win at San Diego of WCC Dec 16. UNT lost three of last four road games, with win at South Dakota. San Francisco won seven of last nine games; they were 0-2 vs San Diego this year, losing by 10-3 points. Dons won first three tourney games by 4-5-3 points. USF is #265 experience team that plays pace #242- they won eight of their last nine home tilts.




NCAAB

Monday, March 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTH TEXAS @ SAN FRANCISCO
North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of North Texas's last 15 games on the road
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Early Final Four bettors hammering Ramblers, driving line down
Patrick Everson

"Early bettors – including sharps – jumped on Loyola +6.5, driving the number down to Michigan as 5-point chalk."

We’re down to four on the floor in the NCAA Tournament, and the talk of the town is not basketball royalty, but rather the common-man underdog run of an upstart No. 11 seed. We check in on the opening lines and early action for next Saturday’s Final Four, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-6.5)

Loyola-Chicago is the flavor of the year in the Big Dance, running off a string of four straight outright victories to win the South Region. The Ramblers (32-5 SU, 23-9-1 ATS), now the No. 1 pointspread team in the nation, rumbled over No. 9 seed Kansas State 78-62 as a 1-point pup Saturday to run their winning streak to 14 games (11-3 ATS).

Not to be outdone, Michigan heads to San Antonio on a 13-game tear, going 10-2-1 ATS in that stretch. The Wolverines (32-7 SU, 24-12-2 ATS) held off No. 9 seed Florida State 58-54 to push as a 4-point chalk in Saturday’s West Region final.

“Having covered its last six games, Loyola is now a money-making 23-9-1 ATS on the season,” Mason said. “Early bettors – including sharps – jumped on Loyola +6.5, driving the number down to Michigan as 5-point chalk. Since the move, more Michigan cash is coming in, but 59 percent of the money is still on Loyola and the points.”

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-4)

Kansas had to win a big-time battle of the blue bloods Sunday to claim the Midwest Region and reach the Final Four for the first time since 2012. The Jayhawks (31-7 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) went overtime against Duke, thanks to a late 3-pointer tying the score at 72, then went on to an 85-81 victory as a 3.5-point underdog.

Villanova returns to the Final Four seeking its second national championship in three years, having beaten North Carolina for the title to cap the 2015-16 season. The Wildcats (34-4 SU, 26-12 ATS) have four double-digit wins and covers thus far in the tournament, topping No. 3 seed Texas Tech 71-59 as a 6-point fave in Sunday’s East Region final.

“Loyal Villanova bettors have made a fortune over the last month, as the Wildcats have racked up a 7-1 ATS record over their last eight games,” Mason said. “Despite Villanova’s recent covering trend, 64 percent of early bettors are on Kansas and the points. However, the Jayhawks have moved from 4-point ‘dogs to getting 5, thanks to sharps taking ‘Nova minus the points.”

[BettorsChat]

NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN VS. SAN FRANCISCO DONS
The North Texas Mean Green and the San Francisco Dons will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at War Memorial Gymnasium.

Oddsmakers opened the Dons as -6-point favorites versus the Mean Green, while the game's total opened at 137.

San Francisco won its last outing, a 65-62 result against Camels on March 22. They failed to cover in that game as a -9-point favorite.

North Texas was a 90-68 winner in its last match at home against Gamecocks. They covered the +1-point spread as underdogs.

North Texas:
Team record: 18-17 SU,19-10 ATS
Current Streak: won 3 straight games.
North Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
North Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Texas's last 9 games

San Francisco:
Team record: 21-15 SU,14-21 ATS
Current Streak: won 3 straight games.
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next up:
North Texas home to San Francisco Wednesday, March 28