Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/26

[Udog]

Sagarin links have all been fixed.

[Udog]

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/26

Trends and Indexes

Monday, March 26

Good Luck on day #85 of 2018!

NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

How low-seeded teams have done in national semi-finals:

2006: George Mason (11-seed) lost 73-58 to Florida (-6)

2011: VCU (11-seed) lost 70-62 to Butler (-2.5)

2016: Syracuse (10-seed) lost 83-66 to North Carolina (-9.5)

2013; Wichita St (9-seed) lost 72-68 to Louisville (-10)

2000: Wisconsin (8-seed) lost 53-41 to Michigan St (-8)

2000: North Carolina (8-seed) lost 71-59 to Florida (-5)

2011: Butler (8-seed) beat VCU 70-62 (-2.5)

2014: Kentucky (8-seed) beat Wisconsin 74-73 (+1)


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend

13) Kansas 85, Duke 81 OT— Jayhawks were 13-36 on arc in this game, 17-33 inside the arc; Newman scored 32 points and Kansas is headed to the Alamo for the Final Four.

Grayson Allen went 3-13 in his last college game; Mavin Bagley was 5-9 in 44:00- if you’re coaching Duke, you’re sick that Bagley got only nine shots in a game this close, especially since he’ll never play for Duke again.

12) Villanova 71, Texas Tech 59— Wildcats were 29-35 on foul line; Tech was 14-18 in game where teams combined to go 9-44 on arc. Villanova is in Final Four for second time in three years; they’re 11-1 in last 12 NCAA tournament games.

11) Final Four pointspreads:
Michigan (-5.5) over Loyola-Chicago
Villanova (-5) over Kansas

10) Since 1987, when two #1-seeds play in the national semifinals, the underdogs are 8-2 against the spread.

9) Was thinking about Gonzaga’s potential move to the Mountain West; I have no idea why they would do that. Gonzaga doesn’t have football, so their TV deal for basketball would only net them an additional $375,000 a year— not much at all.

Mountain West is a better league, but hardly a power league; only reason they got two teams in the NCAA’s this year is because Nevada got beat in the conference tournament. Gonzaga is the king of the WCC; its good to be the king- they’re like UNLV was in the Big West during the peak years of Jerry Tarkanian’s coaching tenure in Las Vegas.

To me, adding Gonzaga would really help the Mountain West, not sure how it helps Gonzaga.

8) Saturday night, Florida State was down 58-54 in the last 0:15; they missed a 3-pointer, then didn’t foul in the last 10 or 11 seconds, and Michigan ran out the clock.

The non-foul occurred right in front of the FSU bench; it seemed like someone on the bench told the Seminole player not to foul, so they let the game end, despite a foul giving them a (very small) chance to win the game. A small chance is still a chance; it happens. Ask Louisville.

As you know, I spend a ridiculous amount of time watching college basketball; can’t remember a situation like this happening before, especially a team whose season ends with a loss. Why give up?

Leonard Hamilton wasn’t happy when he was asked about it after the game. If I was the AD at Florida State, I’d be asking him about it again when we met back in Tallahassee.

7) Duke was down five with 0:11 left in OT Sunday; unlike Florida State, they fouled.

6) Atlanta Braves cut P Scott Kazmir, eating $16M he is owed this year. Kazmir had a rough outing Saturday, blamed it on a 90-100 bullpen session he threw Wednesday, saying he didn’t know he’d be pitching Saturday. Now he is out of a job, though he still gets paid.

5) Phillies gave 2B prospect Scott Kingery a 6-year, $24M contract, which eliminates service time as an issue in making Kingery a major leaguer right now.

Lot of teams delay bringing their prospects up to the majors, to delay their arbitration years from kicking in.

4) Then there is Arizona, which sent OF Yasmany Tomas down to AAA, despite owing him $46M over the next three years. RF Stephen Souza is on the DL and they still sent Tomas down, which tells us they’re pretty sour on him.

3) Twins’ coach Howard Johnson, the old Mets’ 3B, broke bones in his face this weekend when he was hit by a foul ball in the Minnesota dugout. Hope he is feeling better soon.

2) I’m still wondering why the Red Sox fired Terry Francona; Boston averaged 93 wins a year under Francona, winning two World Series with no losing seasons- they were 90-72 his last year, albeit with some off-field hijinx that had people saying Francona ran too loose a ship.

They’ve won one World Series in six years since he left and now have an entry-level manager in Alex Cora. Curious decision.

1— Mets manager Mickey Callaway is the 49th major league pitcher who later became a major league manager. Pitching is obviously the most essential element of baseball; you’d think more former pitchers would’ve become managers.

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, March 26


LA Lakers @ Detroit

Game 731-732
March 26, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
117.854
Detroit
119.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 4 1/2
215
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+4 1/2); Under

New York @ Charlotte

Game 733-734
March 26, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
114.428
Charlotte
117.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 3
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 11 1/2
222
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+11 1/2); Over

Denver @ Philadelphia

Game 735-736
March 26, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
117.845
Philadelphia
125.923
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Minnesota

Game 737-738
March 26, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
00.000
Minnesota
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis

Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
( );

Boston @ Phoenix

Game 739-740
March 26, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
00.000
Phoenix
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston

Dunkel Pick:
Boston
( );




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, March 26

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LA LAKERS (32 - 40) at DETROIT (33 - 40) - 3/26/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 144-184 ATS (-58.4 Units) in March games since 1996.
DETROIT is 114-162 ATS (-64.2 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (27 - 47) at CHARLOTTE (33 - 41) - 3/26/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 7-3 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 5-5 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (40 - 33) at PHILADELPHIA (42 - 30) - 3/26/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-31 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-6 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (19 - 54) at MINNESOTA (42 - 32) - 3/26/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 6-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (50 - 23) at PHOENIX (19 - 55) - 3/26/2018, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 26

Lakers lost three of last four games with Detroit; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to the Motor City. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Lakers lost four of their last five games; they’re 0-4 in last four games as road underdogs. Five of their last six games stayed under the total. Pistons won three of their last four games; they’re 4-3 in last seven games as home faves. Six of their last eight games stayed under.

Home side won nine of last ten Knick-Hornet games; New York is 2-2 vs spread in last four trips to Charlotte. Six of last seven series games went over. Knicks won three of last five games; they are 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as road underdogs. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Charlotte won/covered its last three games; they’re 6-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Road team won seven of last nine Denver-Philly games; Nuggets are 2-1-1 vs spread in last four visits to Philly. Three of last four series games stayed under. Denver is 5-3 in its last eight games; they’re 4-2 in last six games as road underdogs. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. 76ers won last six games, covered last four; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Five of their last six games went over.

Grizzlies won four of last five games with Minnesota; Memphis is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Twin Cities. Three of last four series games stayed under. Grizzlies lost 23 of their last 24 games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games went over total. Timberwolves lost three of their last five games; they’re 10-2 in last dozen games as a home favorite. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Celtics won five of their last six games with Phoenix; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to the desert. Five of last seven series games went over. Boston won four of its last five games; they covered last six games as road favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under. Suns lost their last ten games; they’re 2-10 in last 12 games as a home underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under.




NBA

Monday, March 26

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Trend Report
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LA LAKERS @ DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games
LA Lakers is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games

NEW YORK @ CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing Charlotte
New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games at home

DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Denver's last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home

MEMPHIS @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home

BOSTON @ PHOENIX
Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, March 26


Memphis @ Minnesota

Game 737-738
March 26, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
103.096
Minnesota
119.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 16
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 14
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-14); Over

Boston @ Phoenix

Game 739-740
March 26, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
121.822
Phoenix
101.607
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 20
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 9
210
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-9); Under

[Udog]

Leon Wood is the NBA's top UNDER referee at 32-17 and he is working tonight's game between Celtics and Suns. Wood is working with Jason Phillips (16-9) and Ben Taylor (29-26), for a combined crew UNDER record of 77-52 (59.69%).
BOS/PHO Total: 210