Announcement

**Udog** · 03-25-2018, 07:40 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Over/under totals for pitching wins this year:

16.5 Max Scherzer

15.5 Justin Verlander

14.5 David Price

13.5 Kyle Hendricks

13.5 Noah Syndergaard

12.5 Johnny Cueto

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Random weekend stuff…..

13) Loyola, Chi 79, Kansas State 62— Much like #11-seeds George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011, who both came from the CAA, Ramblers come from the relative obscurity of the MVC to make the Final Four. No one saw this coming.

Not only has Loyola won four NCAA tourney games, they had to win the MVC tournament or they would’ve been playing in the NIT.

Ramblers didn’t have to play #2-seed Cincinnati after the Bearcats blew a 22-point lead to Nevada. #1-seed Virginia lost to a damn #16-seed, and Loyola took advantage of all that.

Loyola’s first three NCAA tournament wins were by total of four points:
— Ramblers were down 60-55 with 2:46 left in first round vs Miami.
— Loyola needed a lucky bounce on a jumper with 0:03.6 left to nip Tennessee, 63-62
— Loyola was down 20-8 early against Nevada, hung on at the end of its 69-68 win.

12) By way of comparison, two of George Mason’s four NCAA tourney wins in 2011 were by double figures- they were an underdog in three of the four games.

VCU had to win an additional play-in game, but four of their five NCAA tourney wins were by double figure margins- they were an underdog in all five of those wins.

11) A final question on the George Mason/VCU thing; does Porter Moser jump for bigger money? He’ll be in demand. Neither coach at Mason/VCU bolted right away.

In 2006, Jim Larranaga was coach at George Mason; he went 107-59 at Mason the next five years, then jumped to Miami, the ACC and a lot more money.

In 2011, Shaka Smart was VCU’s coach; he went 109-35 the next four years before going to Texas and the big $$$ of the Big X.

10) Michigan 58, Florida State 54— Seminoles went 8:00 without a basket down stretch, then made some questionable decisions on who to foul in last 1:30.

Unusual stat; in the West Region final the last 21 years, underdogs are 17-4 vs spread.

9) I love a good coincidence; USC just hired an assistant basketball coach who has two sons, both of whom are 6-10 or taller and are both in high school. Go figure.

Trojans hired Eric Mobley, an AAU coach for the last 11 years. From ESPN.com:

“His oldest son, Isaiah, is a 6-foot-10 high school junior and the No. 44-ranked prospect in the Class of 2019, while his youngest son, Evan, is 6-foot-10 and considered one of the top players in the country in the Class of 2020.”

I wonder where they’ll go to college?

8) Steph Curry is out with Grade 2 MCL sprain; he might be back for the start of the playoffs.

7) Ferris State 71, Northern State 69— Fun game to watch, for the D2 national title.

Ferris State’s president played the clarinet in the school band during this game. I’m guessing the university president at Kentucky or Duke doesn’t still play in the school band.

Ferris State’s mascot is a bulldog; I’m disappointed they’re not the Ferris Wheels.

6) Dustin Johnson hit a golf ball 489 yards Friday; seriously, he was on a 573-yard par-5 and was 84 yards from the hole for his second shot.

5) It bothers me when baseball teams shift and leave third base totally uncovered; they’re just giving up a base hit to anyone with the basic ability to bunt.

I can see doing it against powerful lefties like Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman, but against guys who aren’t so great, to me it is just overthinking something that is fairly simple. Maybe the analytics people are trying to justify their position by micromanaging too much.

4) Apparently it costs $30 to park at A’s games this season; for their four home games with the Giants, it’ll cost $50 to park unless you say “Go A’s!!!” at the gate. Trolling Giants’ fans seems a little immature. Paying $30 to park seems a bit excessive.

3) There are rumors around that Gonzaga will be jumping from the WCC to the Mountain West as early as next season, which would give the MW an even dozen teams. Gonzaga is supposed to announce their decision in the next two weeks.

2) #1-seed Kansas is an underdog to Duke today; the previous nine #1-seeds who got points in the regional final went 2-7 SU, 3-6 against the spread.

1) Few years ago, I was at an AAU basketball tournament at Bishop Gorman HS in Las Vegas; I’m sitting in bleachers watching this game when one of the coaches takes his cellphone out while play was going on, looks at a text message, then glares at the couple sitting in front of me and says:

“If you text me again, he’ll never get in!!!!”

Can’t make stuff like that up.

**Udog** · 03-25-2018, 07:46 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 25

Texas Tech @ Villanova

Game 719-720
March 25, 2018 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
73.650
Villanova
77.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 4 1/2
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 6 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas Tech
(+6 1/2); Under

Duke @ Kansas

Game 721-722
March 25, 2018 @ 5:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Duke
76.830
Kansas
75.289
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 1 1/2
161
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 3 1/2
155
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas
(+3 1/2); Over

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (27 - 9) vs. VILLANOVA (33 - 4) - 3/25/2018, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 136-181 ATS (-63.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against Big East conference opponents since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
VILLANOVA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
VILLANOVA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DUKE (29 - 7) vs. KANSAS (30 - 7) - 3/25/2018, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
DUKE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
DUKE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 1-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 25

Villanova won its last eight games; they played four starters 31:00+ in Friday’s win over West Virginia. Wildcats are 16-0 outside Big East this season; they won first three NCAA games by 26-23-12 points, making 44-92 (47.8%) behind the arc. Texas Tech won five of its last six games; they’re 15-1 outside Big X, losing by 10 to Seton Hall in Brooklyn, their only Big East game this season. Only one Red Raider played more than 27:00 in Friday’s win over Purdue. Over last 8+ years, underdogs are 21-12-1 vs spread in regional final games, 8-5 the last 13 times they were getting 6+ points.

Bill Self is only 2-5 in regional finals at Kansas; #1-seeds who are underdogs in regional finals are 2-7 SU, 3-6 vs spread. Kansas beat Duke 77-75 in NYC last season; Graham played whole 40:00 for Jayhawks, but Duke had a whole different team then. Jayhawks are 14-2 outside Big X this season (#71 NC sked); they played four starters 35:00+ when they held on to beat Clemson Friday- they led by 20 with 11:40 left, won by 4. Duke won its first three tourney games by 22-25-4 points; they played three starters 39:00+ in snails-pace 61-possessions win vs Syracuse Friday. Blue Devils are 15-1 outside the ACC this year- they lost to St John’s.

NCAAB

Sunday, March 25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH @ VILLANOVA
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 9 games
Villanova is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Villanova is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

DUKE @ KANSAS
Duke is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games when playing Kansas
Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas's last 5 games when playing Duke

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 03-25-2018, 08:07 AM

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Texas Tech vs. Villanova

The East Region wraps up Sunday afternoon with top seeded Villanova taking on Texas Tech. Villanova looks to advance to their second Final Four in three seasons, while Texas Tech is in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history.

(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs (1) Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 144.5)

Villanova appears determined to shoot its way to the Final Four, while Texas Tech is employing an alternative strategy. The top-seeded Wildcats can secure their second Final Four berth in three seasons Sunday when they take on the third-seeded Red Raiders in the East Regional final in Boston.

The Wildcats shot 13-of-24 from 3-point range in Friday's 12-point win over West Virginia, improving the team to 47.8 percent from the arc in their three tournament wins. "The deeper you go, the better the teams are going to be," star guard Jalen Brunson said. "For us, most importantly, nothing changes no matter who we play, where we play, what time we play. We play every game like it's our last." While the Wildcats have made 44 3-pointers through three tournament games, the Red Raiders only have made 15 and are shooting just 31.3 percent from long range in this event, but will that percentage rate be enough against Villanova? "They've been the No. 1 team the whole season and are great all-around," Texas Tech guard Keenan Evans said after Friday's 78-65 win over Purdue in the Sweet 16. "They have a great point guard and great bigs that can shoot the ball, so we will just have to get back in the film room and study up on them and get some rest."

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Villanova opened as 6.5-point favorites and heading into game day the line remained at the opening number. The total hit betting boards at 143 and was quickly up to 144.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT TEXAS TECH: The Red Raiders rode a combined 45 points from Evans to first- and second-round wins, but the senior guard was limited to three field goals against Purdue, although he still scored 16 points to lead the team. Zach Smith added 14 points off the bench and is shooting 15-of-19 over the last four games, while freshman Zhaire Smith has registered double-digit points in all three Big Dance contests. Texas Tech, which is playing in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history, would love another big effort out of Justin Gray, who pitched in 12 points against Purdue, matching his second-highest total of the season.

ABOUT VILLANOVA: Brunson led the Wildcats with 27 points versus West Virginia, while freshman Omari Spellman registered 18 points and eight rebounds, not to mention three assists, three blocks and two steals. Brunson has made at least half his shots in six of the last seven games, while Mikal Bridges has done so in 11 of his last 12 games, and Bridges also carries a seven-game streak of draining at least 50 percent of his 3-pointers. Phil Booth, one of the stars from Villanova's national championship game victory two years ago, is just 2-of-11 from the field over the last two games and 5-of-20 over the last four contests.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Texas Tech 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East.
* Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
* Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 12-3 in Wildcats last 15 games following a straight up win.

**Udog** · 03-25-2018, 08:13 AM

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Duke vs. Kansas

The Midwest Region wraps up Sunday to decide the last member of the 2018 Final Four. No surprises here as two of college basketball's biggest brands and the regions top seeded teams do battle.

(2) Duke Blue Devils vs (1) Kansas Jayhawks (+3, 154.5)

A wild NCAA Tournament gets back to normalcy on Sunday when two of college basketball's true blue bloods, Duke and Kansas, meet in the Midwest Regional final in Omaha, Neb. The No. 2 seeded Blue Devils and top-seeded Jayhawks have combined to win eight NCAA titles, including three of the last 10, and are two of the top four winningest programs in NCAA history.

After extending its record Big 12 regular-season title streak to 14, Kansas has advanced to the Elite Eight for the third straight year, jumping out to a 20-point lead early in the second half before holding off Clemson, 80-76, on Friday night. "I wanted to get back to this game so bad because I've been here the last two years, and hopefully we can get over the hump," said Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham referring to losses to eventual NCAA champion Villanova in 2016 (64-59) and Oregon (74-60 last year that denied the Jayhawks a 15th Final Four berth.) Duke will be trying to advance to the Final Four for the 17th time after grinding out a 69-65 victory over Syracuse and is back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015 when the Blue Devils went on to win their fifth NCAA championship. "I thought we were young for a lot of today," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said after the Blue Devils shot just 39.3 percent, including 5-of-26 from 3-point range, and were outrebounded, 37-33, by the Orange. "We were so good in Pittsburgh (in the first two rounds), and hopefully what we did under pressure today will help us on Sunday against a great Kansas team."

TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened as 4-point favorites and money coming in on the Jayhawks saw that line drop to Blue Devils -3 heading into game day. The total hit the board at 155.5 and has been bet down slightly to 154.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT DUKE: The Blue Devils are young, starting four freshmen, but don't feel too sorry for old Krzyzewski, who picked up his 1,100th career coaching victory and 94th career tournament win against Syracuse, both NCAA records. Two of the freshmen, 6-11 forward Marvin Bagley III (21.2 ppg, 11.1 rpg), who garnered ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year honors, and 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. (13.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg) are both both projected as top 10 draft picks, while guards Gary Trent Jr. (14.4 ppg) and Trevon Duval (10.0 ppg, 5.6 apg) are also considered potential first rounders. Senior guard Grayson Allen had 15 points and eight assists to lead Duke in Friday night's win but was just 3-of-14 from 3-point range and is also rated as a potential first round pick.

ABOUT KANSAS: The Jayhawks have made it this far despite the loss of five-star recruit Billy Preston to eligibility issues and 7-foot center Udoka Azubuike playing with a left knee brace to help support a MCL injury suffered in a March 6 practice that forced him to sit out the Big 12 Tournament and play just three minutes in a 76-60 opening-round win over Pennsylvania. The explosive Azubuike has averaged 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in the last two games while connecting on 11-of-14 shots despite limping noticeably at times, and his presence inside will be a key factor in trying to defend the imposing Duke front line of Bagley and Carter. The Jayhawks have the edge in the backcourt, however, led by Graham (17.3 ppg, 7.4 apg), senior Svi Mykhailiuk (14.8 ppg), sophomore Malik Newman (13.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and junior Lagerald Vick (12.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg), all excellent 3-point shooters who will test Duke's 2-3 zone.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 12-2 in Blue Devils last 14 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Jayhawks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 54 percent of bettors taking the underdog from Kansas Jayhawks, while 60 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

**Udog** · 03-25-2018, 08:41 AM

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Elite Eight
Monty Andrews

What could be the difference in the Midwest final between Kansas and Duke? Free Throws. Teams average just 10.3 made foul shots on 14.2 attempts against the Blue Devils - both top-10 in the nation.

East Region

No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 144.5)

Texas Tech's weak outside game vs. Villanova's insane 3-point attack

Texas Tech is in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history - but getting one round further will be a daunting task as the third-seeded Red Raiders face the No. 1 Villanova Wildcats in the East Region final Sunday night at TD Garden in Boston. The Red Raiders earned their first-ever trip to the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament despite struggling from beyond the arc in a 78-65 win over Purdue on Friday - and a similar performance from 3-point range Sunday will almost certainly mean defeat.

It isn't that Texas Tech is a poor shooting team from long distance; the Red Raiders rank just outside the top 100 nationally in 3-point success rate at 36.2 percent. But the Red Raiders just don't take that many 3s - their 18.9 attempts per game ranks just inside the top 300 in Division I, while their 6.9 makes per contest are good for 247th overall. And those numbers are actually lower so far in the tournament, with Texas Tech averaging just five made 3-pointers on 16 attempts through its first three games.

The Red Raiders will have a difficult time keeping pace with the ever-dangerous Wildcats if that shooting trend continues. Villanova enters the weekend ranked 10th in the nation in 3-point success rate at 40.5 percent - and loves to launch those long-range shots, having taken the third-most shots from distance of any team in the country (1,067). And the Wildcats are heating up from 3, hitting 13-of-24 attempts last time out against West Virginia. Look for Villanova to exploit this mismatch all night long.

Midwest Region

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (+3.5, 155.5)

Duke's aversion to fouls vs. Kansas's infrequent visits to the line

The Midwest Region boasts the only 1-vs.-2 Elite Eight matchup - and oddsmakers are leaning toward the lower seed as the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils tangle with the top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks. It's hard to argue with the odds, given that the Blue Devils were so dominant through the opening two rounds before holding on to beat a plucky Syracuse team Friday. And they have a significant edge over the Jayhawks when it comes to limiting trips to the free-throw line - an advantage that could decide this one.

The Blue Devils are a dangerous team, evidenced by the fact that they beat Iona and Rhode Island by a combined 47 points over the opening weekend of March Madness. But they showed what makes them a true title threat in their 69-65 win over the Orange, a game in which they were outshot by nearly 10 percent from the field but held Syracuse to 11 free-throw makes on 17 attempts (Duke went 20-for-28 from the line.) Teams average just 10.3 made foul shots on 14.2 attempts - both top-10 in the nation.

The last two victories didn't come easy for the Jayhawks, who roll into the Elite Eight following four-point wins over No. 8 Seton Hall and No. 5 Clemson. And they prevailed despite shooting below 70 percent from the free-throw line in both. While Kansas hasn't had much trouble getting to the line in the tournament, it averages just 11.5 makes on 16.3 attempts to date - both ranking outside the top 300 nationally. And with Duke so stingy when it comes to allowing free throws, the Jayhawks have some work to do.

Announcement

Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/25

Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/25

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment