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**Udog** · 03-24-2018, 07:37 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Since 1987, eight lowest-seeded teams to make the Final Four:

2006– #11-seed George Mason

2011– #11-seed VCU

2016— #10-seed Syracuse

2013— #9-seed Wichita State

2000— #8-seed Wisconsin

2000— #8-seed North Carolina

2011— #8-seed Butler

2014— #8-seed Kentucky

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Wrapping up the Sweet 16

13) Here is our Elite 8: Both #1-seeds won Friday, are now 10-1-1 vs spread in this round the last four years. Rest of the Elite 8? Two #9-seeds, an 11-seed, two 3-seeds and 2-seed Duke.

12) Duke 69, Syracuse 65— Duke won first meeting 60-44; teams combined to go 8-43 in that game. This game snuck over total; teams combined to go 9-39 on arc, but Duke was 20-28 on foul line as they held on at the end.

Turns out that Jim Boeheim’s last game as a Syracuse player was a 91-81 loss to Duke in the NCAA tournament back when the game were televised in black-and-white. Boeheim played at Syracuse with the great Dave Bing, who was a really good player with the Detroit Pistons.

11) Villanova 90, West Virginia 78— Mountaineers went 7-28 on the arc; they lost seven of last nine games this season when shooting less than 35% on the arc. Villanova plays better defense than you’d think. And they have multiple guys who make 3-pointers- they were 13-24 here.

10) Kansas 80, Clemson 76— If you had the Jayhawks (-5), this was brutal. Clemson rallied back from a 62-42 deficit with 11:00 left and cut lead to 4 with 0:04.5 left, called timeout, but never fouled after Kansas inbounded the ball. Very bad beat for Kansas backers.

Bill Self is 8-2 in Sweet 16 games at Kansas; he is 2-5 in regional finals.

9) Texas Tech 78, Purdue 65— Teams that make the Final Four sometimes make it because they get lucky; Purdue big man Haas couldn’t play because he broke his elbow last week, which made the Boilermakers a far less formidable opponent.

Purdue made 11-24 on arc when they beat Butler without Haas; they were 7-18 in this game, and took only six foul shots the whole game.

8) How #11-seeds (or lower) have done in regional finals:
2017— Xavier (+8.5) L83-59 vs Gonzaga
2014— Dayton (+10.5) L52-62 vs Florida
2011— VCU (+11.5) W71-61 over Kansas
2006— George Mason (+8) W86-84 over UConn
2002— #12-seed Missouri (+6.5) L75-81 vs Oklahoma
2001— Temple (+6.5) L62-69 vs Michigan State
1990— LMU (+5) L131-101 vs UNLV

4-3 vs spread, all as underdogs, with two SU wins.

7) Random trend; over last 20 years, in the West Region final, underdogs are 16-4 against the spread. Michigan is -4.5 over Florida State in Staples Center tonight.

6) Generally, if an 8 or 9-seed gets this far, they had to beat the #1-seed to get here, but not this year because UMBC pulled their upset. Here is how #8 or #9-seeds have done in the Elite 8:
2014: Kentucky (-2.5) W75-72 vs Michigan
2013: Wichita State (+6) W70-66 vs Ohio State
2011: Butler (+3.5) W74-71 Florida OT
2004: Alabama (+8.5) L87-71 vs UConn
2000: North Carolina (+2.5) W59-55 vs Tulsa
2000: Wisconsin (+1) W64-60 vs Purdue
1998: Rhode Island (+4.5) L79-77 vs Stanford
1994: Boston College (+1.5) L74-66 vs Florida

6-2 vs spread, 5-3 SU

5) Dayton Flyers went 14-17 this season, its first losing season in 12 years; they had only one senior, but since the season ended, five other players have left the program, two to explore pro possibilities, three others to transfer to other schools.

Next season’s Flyers will be very young, and will take time to get to know each other.

4) Took the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins 25 years to get 100 points in a season; Las Vegas Golden Knights have done it in their first year in the NHL, a tremendous accomplishment.

3) As you know if you read this space at all, I watch a ton of sports on TV, but one thing I’ve lost my appetite for is pre and post-game shows and halftime shows. Mostly they just exist to amuse the people who are on the show, and usually, there are too many people on them anyway.

Highlight shows late at night? Still enjoy them.

2) Traded Marcell Ozuna for Madison Bumgarner in my fantasy baseball league this winter; Bumgarner broke his left pinkie Friday when he was hit by a line drive. Bleepin’ awesome.

Of course, guy who hit the ball that broke his finger is on my team, too. No bueno.

1) On a happier note, Sunday night is the last Sunday night in 2018 without football or baseball, so thats a good thing.

**Udog** · 03-24-2018, 07:43 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 24

Loyola-Chicago @ Kansas State

Game 513-514
March 24, 2018 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
67.229
Kansas State
70.428
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas State
by 3
120
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas State
by 1 1/2
127
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas State
(-1 1/2); Under

Florida State @ Michigan

Game 515-516
March 24, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida State
71.055
Michigan
79.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 8 1/2
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 4
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-4); Under

Central Michigan @ Liberty

Game 517-518
March 24, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
56.274
Liberty
52.246
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Michigan
by 4
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 2 1/2
141 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+2 1/2); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 24

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LOYOLA-IL (31 - 5) vs. KANSAS ST (25 - 11) - 3/24/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-IL is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FLORIDA ST (23 - 11) vs. MICHIGAN (31 - 7) - 3/24/2018, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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C MICHIGAN (21 - 14) at LIBERTY (21 - 14) - 3/24/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
C MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 24

Loyola, Chi won its first three tourney games by total of 4 points; they’ve won their last 13 games- since Jan 4th, they’re 20-1. Ramblers are #142 experience team that plays pace #319- they make 39.9% of their 3’s (#15). Loyola is 3-1 vs top 100 teams, with loss at Boise State. Kansas State allowed only 53.3 ppg in winning its first three tourney games; Wildcats are #242 experience team that plays pace #307. K-State is 13-2 outside Big X (NC sked #324); their opponents shoot 32.6% on arc (#40). #11 or lower seeds are 4-3 vs spread in this round, 2-5 SU.

Michigan won its last 12 games; they made 14-24 on arc in rout of Texas A&M Thursday. Wolverines lost by 15 at North Carolina in their only ACC game this year; Michigan is 14-2 outside Big 14, albeit vs #300 NC sked. Florida State played 12 guys in first half Thursday; they’re very deep and very athletic. Seminoles are 14-1 outside ACC, with only loss by point to Oklahoma State (#330 NC sked). FSU won by 5 at Rutgers in their only Big 14 game this year. Over last 20 years, underdogs are 16-4 vs spread in West Region final.

Other tournaments
Liberty hasn’t played in 12 days; they’re #306 experience team that is 6-4 outside Big South- they also had four non-D-I wins. Flames are #306 experience team that plays pace #343- they lost Big South title game at buzzer at Radford, are 6-8 vs top 200 teams, with win at Wake Forest. Central Michigan scored 94-98 points in winning first two games of this tournament; they haven’t played in eight days. Chippewas are 10-2 outside MAC with three non-D-I wins, vs NC schedule #340. CMU won four of its last seven true road games.

NCAAB

Saturday, March 24

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Trend Report
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CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ LIBERTY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 5 games on the road

LOYOLA-CHICAGO @ KANSAS STATE
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games

FLORIDA STATE @ MICHIGAN
Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

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**Udog** · 03-24-2018, 07:48 AM

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Florida State vs. Michigan

The West Region wraps up Saturday night with Michigan taking on Florida State with a trip to the Final Four on the line. The Wolverines haven't lost a game in more than a month, winning 12 straight and covering in 10 of those wins.

(9) Florida State Seminoles vs (3) Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, 143.5)

Third-seeded Michigan looks to stay on course for its second Final Four appearance in six years when it faces No. 9 seed Florida State in the West Regional Final on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Wolverines set a new NCAA Tournament single-game record as eight players made at least one 3-pointer in the impressive 99-72 win against seventh-seeded Texas A&M on Thursday to advance to the Elite 8 for the third time in their last five tournament appearances.

Michigan, which is coming off its most points scored in an NCAA Tournament game since 1992, has won 12 straight games, including nine in a row away from home, and can set a single-season program record with their 32nd victory at the Staples Center. Florida State overpowered No. 4 seed Gonzaga 75-60 to reach the Elite 8 for the first time since 1993. The Seminoles, who had one player finish in double figures against the Bulldogs, blocked nine shots while holding Gonzaga to 33.9 percent shooting from the floor en route to the upset and hope to put the defensive clamps on the hot-shooting Wolverines to reach their first Final Four in 46 years. "We're a team that operates with the philosophy that we have to win games by committee," Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "They're all able to contribute offensively and defensively because of that philosophy."

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 4.5-point favorites and heading into game day the line remains at the opening number. The total hit betting boards at 143 and has been bet up slightly to 143.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE: Terance Mann led the way with 18 points to go along with five rebounds despite being hampered by a groin injury while Braian Angola and C.J. Walker each added nine points in the win against Gonzaga. Trent Forrest provided a big spark off the bench with seven points, six rebounds and six assists while fellow reserve Mfiondu Kabengele was an intimidating force in the paint as he registered a game-high four blocks against the Bulldogs. "It feels great," Forrest told reporters. "We're a team that from the beginning of the season knew that we could make it as far as we wanted to."

ABOUT MICHIGAN: Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman scored 16 of his team-leading 24 points in the second half and dished out seven assists against Texas A&M after shooting a combined 7-of-26 from the floor in his previous two NCAA Tournament games. Moritz Wagner bounced back from two pedestrian performances as he tallied 14 of his 21 points in the first half to set the offensive tone as the Wolverines finished 14-of-24 from 3-point range against the Aggies. Charles Matthews continued his stellar play in the tournament by adding 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting while Zavier Simpson contributed 11 points, six steals and five assists.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Under is 7-1 in Florid State's last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Michigan's last five games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 68 percent of bettors taking the chalk from Michigan, while 70 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

**Udog** · 03-24-2018, 07:51 AM

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Loyola-Chicago vs. Kansas State

The bracket busting South Region wraps up Saturday with Loyola-Chicago taking on Kansas State with a ticket to the Final Four on the line. Neither team was projected to make it out of the first weekend and the Ramblers have won three NCAA tournament games by a combined four points.

(11) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs (9) Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5, 126.5)

An unlikely trip to the Final Four wouldn’t mark uncharted territory for Loyola Chicago or Kansas State, but neither team has advanced that far in more than five decades. The teams that busted up the NCAA Tournament’s South Regional bracket - the ninth-seeded Wildcats and the 11th-seeded Ramblers - square off Saturday in Atlanta with a long-awaited return to the Final Four on the line.

Kansas State is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010, but the Wildcats lost the last six times they had a chance to advance to the Final Four. Their last trip came in 1964 - one year after Loyola claimed the national title in their only Final Four trip. The Ramblers were a power in the 1960s but hadn’t been in the NCAA Tournament since 1985 before this year’s Cinderella run in which the Ramblers have won three games by a total of four points, including a 69-68 win over No. 7 seed Nevada on Thursday. Kansas State, which overcame foul trouble to escape with a 61-58 win over No. 5 seed Kentucky on Thursday, will be the lowest-seeded team Loyola has faced thus far after beating the Nos. 6, 3, and 7 seeds.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Kansas State as 1-point chalk and heading into game day they have been bet up to -1.5 at most books. The total hit betting boards at 127 and has dropped slightly to 126.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT LOYOLA CHICAGO: The Ramblers have won 13 straight - the longest streak in the nation - and 20 of their last 21. They closed out the win over Nevada by shooting 75 percent in the second half, as Marques Townes (11.2 points) and Aundre Jackson (11.2 points) made key 3-pointers down the stretch. Five players averaged double-digit scoring with Clayton Custer (13.4) - the hero of the Tennessee win - leading the way.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE: Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the Wildcats’ run through the tournament - which was aided by No. 16 seed Maryland-Baltimore County knocking off overall No. 1 seed Virginia - is the fact they’ve done it with very little contribution from leading scorer and rebounder Dean Wade (16.2 points, 6.2 rebounds). The 6-10 center missed the first two games with a foot injury and was limited to eight minutes against Kentucky. Point guard Barry Brown (16 points, 3.3 assists) and swingman Xavier Sneed (11 points, 5.1 rebounds) have stepped up to carry the load in his absence.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Under is 8-0 in Loyola-Chicago's last eight games following a straight up win.
* Under is 7-0 in Loyola-Chicago's last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 6-1 in Kansas State's last seven neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 54 percent of bettors taking the favorites from Kansas State, while 53 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

Announcement

Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/24

Saturday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/24

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