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**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 07:25 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Over/under win totals for baseball season

— Philadelphia Phillies, 77.5

— Texas Rangers 76.5

— San Diego Padres 73.5

— Tampa Bay Rays 73.5

— Cincinnati Reds 73.5

— Kansas City Royals 67.5

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) It is likely that three NFL teams will start their 6th different Opening Day QB in six years when they open the season in September.

Vikings will be starting newly-signed Kirk Cousins; Houston and Cleveland have dealt away their Week 1 starting QB from last year, so Deshaun Watson will go for Houston if healthy and who knows what the Browns will do at QB, but it’ll be someone new.

It is really hard to win when you have no continuity; Vikings are strong at every other position, but their decision to let Case Keenum walk after he played so well LY will be highly scrutinized. Houston seems set at QB for the next decade if they can keep Watson healthy.

12) Dodgers won 40 more games than the Giants last year, which is eye-opening. San Francisco adds Longoria/McCutchen this year, but neither one of them pitches, although Bumgarner was not healthy last year, and now he is, so that’ll help.

Once your nucleus of talent gets old, it is tough to re-boot and stay a contender without a total rebuild. Will be interesting to follow the Giants this season.

11) Damn, the Red Sox hit only 168 homers last year, least in the AL. My A’s hit 234 and they were a bad baseball team. Will JD Martinez help that correct their power shortage?

10) Speaking of Boston, they’ve got $30M of dead money on their payroll this year, most in the major leagues— Rusney Castillo and Pablo Sandoval account for all of that.

9) Three NFL teams proposed a rule that would limit the amount of early games a western team can play during the regular season. Under the proposal, no team would be scheduled “to play more than three away games with a scheduled kickoff time prior to 1:00 p.m. in the time zone of their home stadium (without consent).”

For instance, during the 2017 season, the 49ers played five road games that kicked off at 1pm ET, which feels like a 10am game to them. Couple years ago, the Rams played a 9:30am game in England, which is a 6:30am start if you’re on West Coast time.

8) Cubs’ 1B Anthony Rizzo has been hit with 70 pitches the last three years, seven more than anyone else in the major leagues during that time.

7) Graceland 83, LSU-Alexandria 80— NAIA national title game drew 6,377 fans in Kansas City, as Graceland, from Lamoni, IA won the championship. Tough loss for Alexandria, which lost in the national semifinals by a basket last year.

6) Louisville sent interim basketball coach David Padgett packing; he’ll be fine eventually, but where do the Cardinals go from here?

If you’re Chris Mack, do you really leave your alma mater (Xavier) for a job where the team is likely to go on probation? Louisville might be a lucrative job, but the fanbase is spoiled and the chances of winning right away are almost nil, which won’t please the fanbase.

5) Western Kentucky 92, Oklahoma State 84– Hilltoppers are headed to New York City for the NIT semifinals next week- they won at USC, then 46 hours later, won in Stillwater, OK. Not an easy thing to do.

4) This made me feel old; Bobby Orr turned 70 this week.

For my 9th birthday, friend of my parents gave me a subscription to Sports Illustrated; the first issue that came in the mail had Bobby Orr on the cover and I became a huge Bruins fan- their loss in OT in Game 7 of the ’79 Stanley Cup semifinals remains one of my saddest moments as a sports fan.

Got to meet Bobby Orr at a minor league baseball game in the mid-80’s; nice man with really bad knees. He was playing in a celebrity softball game and he purposely hit fly balls so he didn’t have to run.

Do a search on Bobby Orr rushing the puck and you’ll see a guy who revolutionized the sport; he was so exciting to watch. Hard to believe he is 70 years old; to me, he’ll always be the guy flying thru the air after scoring the game-winning goal in the 1970 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Happy birthday!!!!

3) There are no instant replays in spring training baseball games; I’m pretty sure the umpires have adopted a “When in doubt, call him out!!” mentality.

2) Since 2004, the defending national champ is 8-19 vs spread in NCAA tournament, and Florida went 4-2 when they repeated in 2007, so it is 4-17 without the ’07 Gators.

1— Combined seeds for the teams in the Sweet 16 this year is 85, the highest total since 2000.

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 07:27 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 22

Kansas State @ Kentucky

Game 813-814
March 22, 2018 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas State
68.951
Kentucky
76.294
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 7 1/2
131
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 5
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-5); Under

Loyola-Chicago @ Nevada

Game 815-816
March 22, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
67.396
Nevada
64.728
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Loyola-Chicago
by 2 1/2
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 2 1/2
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Loyola-Chicago
(+2 1/2); Over

Texas A&M @ Michigan

Game 817-818
March 22, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas A&M
70.758
Michigan
77.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 7
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 2 1/2
136 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-2 1/2); Under

Florida State @ Gonzaga

Game 819-820
March 22, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida State
68.450
Gonzaga
71.681
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 3
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 5 1/2
155
Dunkel Pick:
Florida State
(+5 1/2); Under

Sam Houston St @ TX-San Antonio

Game 821-822
March 22, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sam Houston St
51.905
TX-San Antonio
53.225
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TX-San Antonio
by 1 1/2
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TX-San Antonio
by 4
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sam Houston St
(+4); Over

Campbell @ San Francisco

Game 825-826
March 22, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Campbell
49.543
San Francisco
56.331
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 7
143
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 9
146 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Campbell
(+9); Under

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 07:29 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS ST (24 - 11) vs. KENTUCKY (26 - 10) - 3/22/2018, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
KENTUCKY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOYOLA-IL (30 - 5) vs. NEVADA (29 - 7) - 3/22/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEVADA is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEVADA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS A&M (22 - 12) vs. MICHIGAN (30 - 7) - 3/22/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA ST (22 - 11) vs. GONZAGA (32 - 4) - 3/22/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
FLORIDA ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAM HOUSTON ST (20 - 14) at TX-SAN ANTONIO (20 - 14) - 3/22/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TX-SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAMPBELL (18 - 15) at SAN FRANCISCO (20 - 15) - 3/22/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 90-128 ATS (-50.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-127 ATS (-51.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 07:30 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 22

Kentucky won/covered its last six Sweet 16 games, and they were underdog in three of those; Wildcats are 13-2 outside the SEC- 8 of those 15 games were against top 100 teams, with 65-61 loss to Kansas, 83-76 win over West Va. Kentucky won nine of its last ten games; they’re least experienced team in country that has #17 eFG% defense. Kansas State won four of its last five games, allowing 53 ppg in first two tourney games; they’re 2-0 vs SEC teams, beating Vandy/Georgia, both by 5 points. Last five years, Big X teams are only 3-8 in Sweet 16 games.

Nevada played only six guys last weekend; they trailed Texas by 14, Cincinnati by 22, but won both games without playing one possession of zone defense. Wolf Pack are 2-0 vs MVC teams this season, beating Illinois St by 30, so Illinois by 22- they’re 13-3 outside Mountain West- they start three juniors, two seniors (#42 experience team). Loyola won its two games last weekend by total of 3 points; they won last 12 games. Ramblers lost by 34 at Boise State in their only MW game this season. Oddly, Loyola is #14 in country at shooting 3’s (40%); Nevada is #14 in county at defending the 3-pointer (31.6%).

Last 10 years, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread when #’s 3-7 seeds meet in Sweet 16. Texas A&M won five of its last games; they’re 13-1 outside SEC, with only loss by 3 to Arizona in Phoenix. Aggies are #235 experience team that started season in Germany with win over West Va- they beat Penn State by 11 in only Big 14 game. A&M starts three juniors- their bench plays #62 minutes in country, so they’ve got depth. Michigan won last 11 games but needed last second 3-pointer to nip Houston and get here; Wolverines lost 77-75 to LSU in only SEC game- they won two of last three Sweet 16 games, losing 69-68 to Oregon LY.

Gonzaga is in Sweet 16 for 4th year in row, winning in this round two of last three years- they’ve won their last 16 games, winning last weekend by 4-6 points. Zags are #241 experience team that is 12-3 outside WCC (#80 NC sked). Florida State was down 14 to Xavier Sunday but KO’d #1-seed Xavier; since 2005, #8-9 seeds are 3-3 vs spread in Sweet 16 games, after they had KO’d the #1 seed. Seminoles are experience team #222; they’re 13-1 outside ACC (NC sked #329), losing 71-70 to Oklahoma St. This is Florida State’s first Sweet 16 since 2011.

Thursday’s other tournaments
Sam Houston State is only 3-7 outside Southland Conference; they also had four non-D-I wins- they played #51 non-conference schedule. Bearkats start four juniors and a senior; they played four starters 31:00+ in Monday’s home win over Eastern Michigan. Sam Houston is experience team #21 that plays pace #241- they force turnovers 20.2% of time (#71)- they lost four of last six true road games. UTSA is 9-3 in its last 12 games; they won by 14-16-7 points in their three games vs Southland foes this season. Roadrunners start three sophomores, two juniors.

Campbell Camels lost four of last five true road games; their last one was Feb 22. Camels are 6-6 outside Big South (#338 NC schedule)- they make 38.5% of their 3’s. Campbell’s best player is a 5-9 guard; they start two sophs, two juniors (experience team #199), and played three starters 31:00+ in Monday’s home win over New Orleans. San Francisco is 8-3 in its last 11 games; they won seven of last eight home games. Dons are #266 experience team that plays pace #244- they beat Big South champ Radford by 11 at home in December.

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 07:33 AM

NCAAB

Thursday, March 22

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Trend Report
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LOYOLA-CHICAGO @ NEVADA
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Loyola-Chicago's last 5 games
Nevada is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nevada's last 7 games

TEXAS A&M @ MICHIGAN
Texas A&M is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games

SAM HOUSTON STATE @ UTSA
UTSA is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
UTSA is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

KANSAS STATE @ KENTUCKY
Kansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Kansas State's last 19 games
Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

FLORIDA STATE @ GONZAGA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games
Florida State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Gonzaga's last 7 games

CAMPBELL @ SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 07:47 AM

Thursday's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting preview: South Region

Games to be played at Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

(11) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs (7) Nevada Wolf Pack (-1, 143.5)

March Madness Betting Breakdown: No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago
No. 7 Nevada is a 1.5-point favorite facing No. 11 Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament.

Neither Loyola Chicago nor Nevada was supposed to be here, and that was before a miraculous bounce and a historic comeback put them into the Sweet 16. Two of the teams who helped shake up the NCAA Tournament South Regional square off Thursday in Atlanta, and one will become an unlikely entry into the last eight teams standing.

Nevada lived on the edge last weekend in Nashville, overcoming a 14-point second-half deficit in an 87-83 overtime win over Texas before rallying from a 22-point hole to knock off No. 2 seed Cincinnati in the second-largest comeback in NCAA Tournament history. The seventh-seeded Wolfpack have matched the school record for wins and are in the Sweet 16 for just the second time. Loyola nearly squandered a late lead against No. 3 seed Tennessee on Saturday before Clayton Custer’s jumper bounced around the rim and in for a 63-62 win. The 11th-seeded Ramblers haven’t lost in nearly two months, winning 12 straight since a 69-67 loss at Bradley on Jan. 31 and 19 of their last 20.

TV: 7:07 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Nevada opened the betting week as 2.5-point favorites, however a steady flow of money on the underdog Ramblers has pushed that number down to Nevada -1 by Wednesday evening. The total hit betting boards at 143.5 and remains on that opening figure.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT LOYOLA: The Ramblers are disciplined on defense, ranking fifth in the nation in scoring defense (62.2 points per game) while committing the second-fewest fouls per contest. But they also have plenty of offensive prowess, with five players averaging double-digit scoring. Custer (13.3 points, 4.2 assists) leads the way, but forward Aundre Jackson (11.1 points) averaged a team-high 14 points in the first two games of the tournament.

ABOUT NEVADA: The Wolfpack are the rare team that can push the pace – they average 83 points per game – without getting careless, as their 9.6 turnovers per game are the fourth-fewest in the nation. Forwards Caleb Martin (18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds) and Cody Martin (13.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists) and swingman Jordan Caroline (17.7 points, 8.7 rebounds) are the team’s most productive trio, but reserve guard Josh Hall (6.8 points) was huge last weekend, averaging 14.5 points and six rebounds. Guard Kendall Stephens (13.4 points) is a prolific 3-point shooter, hitting 44.4 percent from behind the arc.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Ramblers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
* Wolf Pack are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-0 in Ramblers' last 7 overall.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Wolf Pack's last 5 games following a straight up win.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 62 percent of bettors taking the favorites from Nevada, while 56 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

(9) Kansas State Wildcats vs (5) Kentucky Wildcats (-5.5, 137.5)

March Madness Betting Breakdown: No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Kansas State
No. 5 Kentucky is a 5.5-point favorite facing No. 9 Kansas State in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament.

Stars are made during the NCAA Tournament, and nobody is shining brighter than Kentucky freshman Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 6-6 point guard looks to continue his stellar play Thursday as the fifth-seeded Wildcats face ninth-seeded Kansas State in a South Region semifinal at Philips Arena in Atlanta.

Gilgeous-Alexander had 27 points, six rebounds and six assists in Kentucky’s 95-75 second-round NCAA Tournament win over Buffalo and is averaging 21.8 points, 6.6 assists and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 57 percent from the floor in five postseason games including the SEC tournament. “He gives other teams hell,” teammate Jarred Vanderbilt told reporters. “When he has the ball, he finishes well, and when they collapse on him, he’s finding us for open shots, layups, dunks. He’s turned into a great leader for us.” The Wildcats have won nine of their last 10 games and enter as prohibitive favorites against a Kansas State team that hopes to have leading scorer Dean Wade back after the junior forward missed the last three games due to a foot injury. A first-team All-Big 12 selection, the 6-10 Wade averages 16.5 points and 6.3 rebounds for Kansas State, which relied on its defense to open the NCAA Tournament with wins over Creighton (69-59) and UMBC (50-43).

TV: 9:37 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened as 5-point favorites for this Sweet 16 matchup and as of Wednesday evening that number is up slightly to -5.5. The total hit betting boards at 138.5 and has been bet down to 137.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT KANSAS STATE: Guard Barry Brown averages 16.1 points for the Wildcats, who defeated UMBC despite shooting 1-of-12 from the 3-point line and committing 18 turnovers. Making its first appearance in the Sweet 16 since 2010, Kansas State allows an average of 66.9 points per game behind a tenacious defense led by Wade, who was optimistic about returning to action after practicing Wednesday. If Kentucky turns the game into a shootout, sophomore guard Xavier Sneed (10.7 points) could play a key role from beyond the arc.

ABOUT KENTUCKY: The highest remaining seed in the South Region, Kentucky opened the NCAA Tournament with a 78-73 win over No. 12 seed Davidson before shooting 56.3 percent in a 20-point win over 13th-seeded Buffalo. Expect Kansas State to slow the pace in an effort to contain Gilgeous-Alexander and forward Kevin Knox, who averages a team-high 15.6 points and scored 25 in the win over Davidson. Kentucky held both Davidson and Buffalo to under 40 percent shooting from the field and could receive a boost from Vanderbilt, who has missed the last five games due to injury but hopes to return Thursday.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
* Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Kansas State's last 6 neutral site games.
* Over is 10-1 in Kentucky's last 11 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 71 percent of bettors taking the chalk with Kentucky, while 59 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 08:54 AM

Thursday's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting preview: West Region

Games to be played at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California.

(7) Texas A&M Aggies vs (3) Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 136.5)

Third-seeded Michigan looks to build on one of its most memorable wins in the NCAA Tournament when it faces No. 7 seed Texas A&M on Thursday in Los Angeles. Jordan Poole buried a deep 3-pointer as time expired against Houston on Saturday to help the Wolverines, who are the highest seed remaining in the West Region, make their fourth Sweet 16 appearance in six years while reaching 30 victories for the fourth time in program history.

Michigan coach John Beilein set a school record for NCAA Tournament wins with 15 following the 64-63 victory against the Cougars and aims to lead the Wolverines to the Elite Eight for the third time in their last five postseason appearances. Texas A&M jumped all over second-seeded North Carolina midway through the first half and never looked back en route to an 86-65 victory Sunday over the reigning national champions. The Aggies, who were ranked as high as fifth nationally during the regular season, boast three key contributors that are 6-10 and hope to ride their size advantage to their first Elite 8 appearance in program history. "It's an absolutely great feeling to keep dancing," Texas A&M center Tonny Trocha-Morelos told reporters. "It means a lot because this is my senior year and I wanted to do something like this for the younger guys."

TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 3.5-point favorites and as of Wednesday evening that number has been bet down to -2.5. The total hit betting boards at 134 and has been bet all the way up to 136.5. Check out the complete line history here.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT TEXAS A&M: TJ Starks led the way with 21 points and five assists against North Carolina to move within one assist of breaking David Goff's school record of 13 during the 1980 NCAA Tournament. Tyler Davis flirted with a double-double as he added 18 points and nine rebounds to move past Jeff Overhouse (739) for 11th place on the Aggies' all-time rebounding list with 745. D.J. Hogg produced 14 points and Robert Williams grabbed 13 rebounds as Texas A&M won the battle of the boards 50-36 against one of the nation's best rebounding teams.

ABOUT MICHIGAN: Moritz Wagner overcame a sluggish start to score 10 of his 12 points in the second half and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman also tallied 12 points to lift the Wolverines past Houston despite shooting a season-low 35.6 percent from the field. Charles Matthews and Duncan Robinson each added 11 points while Poole finished with eight, including the game-winning shot from 28 feet away. "Jordan does that all the time in practice," Beilein told reporters. "The guy has an overdose of swag and he's got everything you could ask for as he dreams of those shots and lives for those shots."

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
* Wolverines are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 5-1 in Aggies' last 6 vs. Big Ten.
* Under is 5-1 in Wolverines' last 6 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 52 percent of bettors taking the favorites from Michigan, while 52 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

(9) Florida State Seminoles vs (4) Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5.5, 152.5)

Fourth-seeded Gonzaga is in the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive season but the Bulldogs have higher aspirations as they face ninth-seeded Florida State in Thursday's NCAA Tournament West Region contest in Los Angeles. Gonzaga, which has won 16 straight games, played in last season's NCAA title game and its odds of returning have been helped by the slew of March Madness upsets.

The Seminoles are in the Sweet 16 for the fifth time in school history and are fresh off a shocking 75-70 upset of top-seeded Xavier, which caught the attention of Bulldogs coach Mark Few. "Physically, probably easily the most physically imposing and athletically gifted team we've faced maybe in the 20 years I've been head coach, I would say," Few said of Florida State at Wednesday's press conference. "Just the bodies, the size, the length, and the athleticism is really impressive." Seminoles coach Leonard Hamilton may have gushed even more about the long-time success of the Gonzaga program and the challenge his team faces. "I'm just extremely impressed with how well they play together," Hamilton said of the Bulldogs at his team's Wednesday press conference. "They're confident in what they do. They've got a little bit of a confident edge about who they are and what they represent."

TV: 10:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Gonzaga opened as 6.5-point favorites and as of Wednesday evening that number has been bet down to -5.5. The total hit betting boards at 154 and has been dropped to 152.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE: Junior guard Terance Mann wasn't expected to play against Xavier due to a groin injury before choosing to go just prior to game time but now is closer to full health after having three days in which to recuperate. Mann ranks third on the squad in scoring (12.7) and is averaging a team-best 5.5 rebounds on a deep team that typically plays 10 players. Senior forward Phil Cofer (12.9 points, five rebounds per game) and senior guard Braian Angola (12.8, team-best 63 3-pointers) share the bulk of the scoring with Mann, while sophomore guard Trent Forrest is a highly valuable contributor averaging eight points and leading the Seminoles in assists (4.1) and steals (50).

ABOUT GONZAGA: The emergence of freshman guard Zach Norvell Jr. (12.7 average, 74 3-pointers) has been a big reason why the Bulldogs were able to reload this season and he established season highs of 28 points, 12 rebounds and six 3-pointers in the 90-84 second-round win over Ohio State. "He's got a persona that we really need in our program right now, quite frankly," Few told reporters. "We have an overabundance of introverts and that's one thing he's not. So I call him our spiritual leader." The Zags feature four other double-digit scorers in senior power forward Johnathan Williams (team best averages of 13.6 points and 8.4 rebounds), sophomore forward Killian Tillie (12.9), junior point guard Josh Perkins (12.4 points, team bests of 5.3 assists and 82 3-pointers) and sophomore reserve forward Rui Hachimura (11.4).

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 6-1 in Seminoles' last 7 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-0 in Bulldogs' last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 62 percent of bettors taking the chalk with Gonzaga, while 55 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 09:03 AM

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16
Monty Andrews

After an absolutely wild March Madness opening weekend we are down to the Sweet 16. Monty Andrews is here to break down some of the underlying betting mismatches for the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule.

South Region

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (7) (-2, 143.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Nevada's sensational TO ratio

The NCAA Tournament's South Region is an absolute mess to bracket-busted casual fans and favorite bettors - and a sight to behold for those who took shots on some underdogs. Two of the tournament more intriguing teams face off Thursday night as the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tangle with the Nevada Wolfpack; the winner advances to the Elite Eight this weekend, and if it comes down to turnover play, the Ramblers are in serious danger of seeing their Cinderella story come to an end.

On the surface, you might not think the Ramblers have a turnover problem; after all, they finished the regular season with a plus-0.9 average turnover margin and were sensational in their tournament-opening victory over the Miami Hurricanes, finishing with a 16-10 advantage in forced turnovers. But Loyola-Chicago's 12.2 turnovers per game during the season came despite the team playing a slow, deliberate pace on offense - and it actually committed a turnover on 17.1 percent of plays, ranking 257th out of 351 teams.

Contrast that to the Wolf Pack, who took care of the ball like no other team in all of Division I. Nevada ranked fourth in the nation in fewest turnovers per game (9.6) and led the country in lowest turnover rate (11.9 percent). And the Wolf Pack have been even more meticulous with the basketball during March Madness, committing just nine turnovers through their first two games - including a scant two in their upset win over Cincinnati. All those extra possessions could mean big things for Nevada come Thursday.

West Region

Texas A&M Aggies (7) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-3, 134)

Texas A&M's 3-point problems vs. Michigan's stifling long-range D

There have been plenty of incredible performances against high seeds already in March Madness - and Texas A&M is on that list as the Aggies prepare for their Sweet 16 encounter with the Michigan Wolverines. After squeaking past Providence in Round 1, the Aggies put together their best showing of the season in a 21-point blowout win over North Carolina. But getting past the Wolverines and into the Elite Eight will require a much better showing from deep than they mustered in the regular season.

Texas A&M struggled from 3-point range during the year, shooting just 33.2 percent - ranking 269th out of 351 Division I schools in that category. And while the Aggies shot a blistering 41.7 percent from deep in their stunning victory over the Tar Heels, that showing came against a North Carolina team that ranks in the bottom 50 nationally in 3-point defense. This is not a good long-range shooting team - and in a game that is expected to be close, that deficiency could come back to haunt Texas A&M.

The Wolverines will do their best to make sure the Aggies don't repeat the long-range shooting success they had against North Carolina - and Michigan is well-equipped to do the job. The West Region's No. 3 seed limited opponents to just 5.5 made 3-pointers on 16.2 attempts per game - both ranking as the seventh-lowest marks in the country; the Wolverines also hold foes to a 34 percent success rate. If the Aggies do advance to the weekend, it probably won't be due to a newly-discovered 3-point shooting prowess.

East Region

West Virginia Mountaineers (5) vs. Villanova Wildcats (1) (-5, 153)

West Virginia's bad behavior vs. Villanova's foul aversion skills

West Virginia has enjoyed back-to-back laughers against low seeds - but things are about to get a whole lot more difficult for the No. 5 Mountaineers as they brace for an East Region third-round encounter with top-seeded Villanova. West Virginia defeated No. 12 Murray State and No. 13 Marshall by a combined 40 points, but will need to be on its best behaviour - literally - against a Wildcats team that can score at will at one end of the floor and doesn't give up many free-throw chances at the other.

Despite rolling past the Racers 85-68 and trouncing the Thundering Herd 94-71, West Virginia wasn't able to mask its deficiencies in the foul department. The Mountaineers committed 39 combined fouls in the two games, leading to 44 total free throws against - a sky-high number for a team that controlled both games. But that's common for a West Virginia team that ranked in the bottom 50 in free-throw makes and attempts against while averaging a whopping 21.4 fouls during the season, 13th-most in the nation.

That kind of infraction-happy defensive play just won't fly against the Wildcats, who have proven they can dominate without having to worry about being in foul trouble. Villanova ranked 44th in free-throw makes allowed (11.7) and 23rd in attempts surrendered (15.6), and their 16.0 personal fouls per game placed them in a tie for 36th in the country. That 5.4 fouls-per-game difference is significant no matter the opponent - but when it's Villanova with the edge, West Virginia could be in serious trouble Friday.

Midwest Region

Syracuse Orange (11) vs. Duke Blue Devils (2) (-11.5, 133)

Orange's dismal pass defense vs. Blue Devils' awesome ball distribution

Syracuse has the distinction of being one of only four double-digit seeds in the history of the NCAA Tournament to reach the Final Four - and the No. 11 Orange would love nothing more than to repeat the feat as they tangle with the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in third-round action Friday night. But it won't be an easy task for Syracuse, which comes in as a double-digit underdog that has already lost to Duke by 16 points this season - and it could have a major problem trying to slow down Duke's assist-heavy attack.

Good passing teams had a field day against Syracuse this past season; the Orange allowed opponents to average 16.1 assists per contest - good for 330th in the country - while the 0.761 assists per made field goal they surrendered ranked dead last in the country. Duke exposed Syracuse's shoddy pass defense in their Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season encounter back on Feb. 24, when the Blue Devils racked up 16 assists on just 22 made field goals en route to a 60-44 drubbing.

The Blue Devils' offense is dangerous in many areas, but passing efficiency is certainly near the top of that list. Duke averaged 17.8 assists per game during the season - tied for sixth-most in the country - while ranking 48th in assists per made field goal (0.58); that number has climbed to 0.68 through Duke's first two games of March Madness. If the Orange can't find a way to disrupt the passing lines, they might once again end up on the wrong end of a rout at the hands of the Blue Devils.

**Udog** · 03-22-2018, 09:39 AM

Slow-paced teams like Loyola-Chicago a bad bet in Sweet 16
Ashton Grewal

Virginia's early ousting from March Madness is not just a judgement against Wahoo basketball but also a vote against slow-tempo teams in the NCAA Tournament. More and more college hoops coaches want to push the pace and score buckets making UVA doppelgangers a rarer specimen.

College basketball bettors need look no further than the same region the Cavaliers were unceremoniously booted from to find the new champion of crawl-ball. The same Tony Bennett principles that made it impossible for Virginia to come back from a 10-point second half deficit against UMBC are the ones that have lifted Loyola-Chicago into the Sweet 16.

The Ramblers rank 340th out of 351 Division I college basketball teams in offensive possessions per game and only three teams (Virginia, Cincinnati and Central Florida) allowed fewer points per game. Loyola-Chicago is an Under bettor’s dream team as its 12-19-1 Over/Under record indicates.

But the Missouri Valley champions needed two Lonnie Walker brain farts and a miracle 3-pointer to get by Miami in the Round of 64, and a contested Clayton Custer 15-footer that touched every part of the rim before dropping with five seconds left to slip past Tennessee in the next round. They easily covered the spread in both games but moneyline bettors were on the edge of their seats riding the Ramblers in the first weekend of the tournament.

Despite Virginia’s habit of making a mess in March, there have been instances over the last decade of snail-paced teams going deep in the Big Dance. The Wisconsin Badgers made it to the national championship game in 2015 with the sixth slowest pace in the country, and the Butler Bulldogs did the same thing in 2010 with the 41st fewest offensive possessions per game in the nation.

Can the formula work for Loyola-Chicago on Thursday against the Nevada Wolf Pack (-1)? The Ramblers’ margin of error is slimmer than a high-scoring team like a Duke or Villanova side. Even Nevada was able to overcome a 22-point deficit to Cincinnati in the Round of 32 thanks to its potent offense.

Teams that play with a pace as slow as the Ramblers (or slower) are 4-6 straight up and 4-5-1 against the spread in the Sweet 16 since 2010.

Bettors need to remember as well, the 2015 Badgers' team was really damn good. They made it to the Final Four the previous season and had two soon-to-be pros in Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky on the roster. Hell, even the 2010 Butler team had two future NBA players (Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack) and its head coach would make the jump to the Association too.

Loyola-Chicago’s biggest weapon is Cluster, a 6-foot-1 junior guard who’s averaging 13.3 points per game and is about as likely to play at the next level as your mom’s friend Carol.

Wisconsin owned a +14.8 point differential playing in the Big Ten back in 2015. The Ramblers possess a +9.2 point differential thanks to their big wins against the likes of Drake, Missouri State and other mediocre mid majors from the Missouri Valley Conference.

There’s no doubting Loyola-Chicago has a good chance to win outright Thursday against Nevada. The odds suggest it’s close to a 50-50 proposition. Most sportsbooks opened with the Wolf Pack as 2.5-point faves but the spread has dropped to a single point.

The problem for the Ramblers is – just like Bennett’s Virginia side – if things sour, they don’t have a Plan B to fall back on. Nevada has proven it might not be the best first half bet, but it can make adjustments to battle back from a large hole.

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