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**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 08:06 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Current odds to win the college basketball national title:

3-1: Villanova

7-2: Duke

7-1: Gonzaga

8-1: Kansas, Kentucky

10-1: Michigan

12-1: Purdue

15-1: West Virginia

25-1: Clemson, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

40-1: Florida

50-1: Nevada, Kansas State, Loyola

60-1: Syracuse

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) Memphis Tigers were down to 4,000 season tickets this season; they claim their program lost $4.7M this year, which is why they named Penny Hardaway basketball coach Tuesday.

Not great being a struggling college team in a city where there is also an NBA franchise.

12) Shortly after that, the first domino fell: 4-star PG Alex Lomax got out of his commitment to Wichita State and signed on with Memphis— he played for Hardaway in high school.

If Penny Hardaway dominates recruiting in talent-rich Memphis, the Tigers will be back in the NCAAs soon. Hardaway won three state titles in his brief career as a high school coach.

11) Dodgers lost 3B Justin Turner with a broken left wrist, after he was hit by a pitch. That’ll put him out for 4-6 weeks. Will they move Logan Forsythe to 3B and platoon Taylor/Utley at 2B?

10) Alex Cobb signed a 4-year deal with the Orioles; lot of teams could’ve used him.

9) If you’re betting games in Las Vegas this week, go to SouthPoint Casino- they’re offering bets at -$105 instead of the normal $110, so if you go 7-5 on $100 bets, you win $175 instead of $150. Plus its a good casino with good pizza and a very good ice cream stand on the way out the door.

8) Ole Miss signed Middle Tennessee State coach Kermit Davis; his salary goes from $750K to $2.5M. Davis’ dad was the coach at Mississippi State a long time ago; he is very good.

7) Jacksonville State’s campus was hit hard by a tornado in Alabama Monday night; the Gamecocks’ hoop team is still playing- they’re at North Texas tonight.

6) ESPN signed former NFL coach John Fox as a studio analyst; will be interesting to see what he has to say. When he was coaching the Panthers, he got Carolina to the Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme as his quarterback.

5) Graduate transfer QB Gardner Minshaw moves from East Carolina to Washington State; he threw for 2,140 yards LY, with 16 TD’s, 7 INTs. Before he heads to Pullman, the young man is being tutored by Hal Mumme, the father of the Air Raid offense, who is OC at Jackson State these days. Playing for Mike Leach is good for a quarterback.

4) Shohei Ohtani is 3 for 28 batting in spring training— I started to call it hitting, but 3-28 isn’t hitting, it is batting. Angels may have been sold a bill of goods with Ohtani being a 2-way player- they gave CJ Cron away to Tampa Bay to make room for Ohtani’s bat.

3) On April 17, Oakland A’s are celebrating the 50th anniversary of their move to Oakland- they’re playing the White Sox that night, and admission is free. Team got 300,000 requests for tickets for that night.

In 1968, the A’s sold out their home opener; they had 5,700 fans the next night. Probably won’t be a whole lot different this year, on April 18.

2) Back in the early 70’s, Austin Peay (pronounced Pee) had a really good player named James (Fly) Williams; he played in the ABA for a season after that. Prolific scorer.

Austin Peay fans had a great chant: “The Fly is Open. Let’s go Peay!!!”

1— Underrated gambling day today; first round of the Match Play golf tournament, with 32 matches going on. Kind of like a country club version of March Madness. Kind of.

**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 08:13 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 21

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W KENTUCKY (26 - 10) at OKLAHOMA ST (21 - 14) - 3/21/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 119-87 ATS (+23.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 121-85 ATS (+27.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 51-26 ATS (+22.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UTAH (21 - 11) at ST MARYS-CA (30 - 5) - 3/21/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IL-CHICAGO (18 - 15) at AUSTIN PEAY (19 - 14) - 3/21/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N COLORADO (23 - 12) at SAN DIEGO (20 - 13) - 3/21/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
N COLORADO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N COLORADO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N COLORADO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N COLORADO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N COLORADO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
N COLORADO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE ST (23 - 12) at N TEXAS (17 - 17) - 3/21/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 21

Western Kentucky played four starters 32:00+ in Monday night’s 79-75 win at USC; now they fly halfway cross country for this game, 46 hours later. Hilltoppers are #156 experience team that is 9-5 outside C-USA, vs #67 NC schedule- they’re 7-5 vs top 100 teams this season. Oklahoma State won five of its last six games; they won last four home games. Cowboys played two guys more than 28:00 in a 71-65 home win Monday; they beat Charlotte by 18 in their only C-USA game this season.

If St Mary’s thinks they got screwed by NCAA, beating Pac-12 teams is good revenge. St Mary’s won six of its last seven games, holding on to beat Pac-12’s Washington 85-81 Monday after leading by 16 with 11:55 left. Gaels are 2-1 vs Pac-12 teams this season, losing at Wazzu, and beating Huskies/Cal- they’re 5-3 vs top 100 teams. Utah won eight of its last ten games they lost by 12 at BYU in only WCC game- they also crushed LSU Monday, leading 31-9 at one point.

Ill-Chicago lost three of last four games but won last six true road games; they’re 4-8 outside Horizon League (#196 non-conf schedule). Flames have #24 eFG% defense in country; they’re #286 experience team that plays pace #25. UIC turns ball over 20.9% of the time (#317). Austin Peay won four of its last six games; they’re #220 experience team that plays pace #126 and is 4-7 outside Horizon. UIC hasn’t played in a week; Governors last played Thursday.

Northern Colorado won six of its last eight games; they won by 2 at Pepperdine in only WCC game this season. Bears are 7-4 outside Big Sky, 3-5 vs teams ranked in top 125; they’re #129 experience team that plays pace #39. NC played three starters 36:00+ in Sunday’s 81-72 home win over Drake. San Diego is 10-3 outside WCC, winning first two games in this tournament by 16-3 points. Toreros are #124 experience team that plays pace #249- they’ve got #9 eFG% defense in country.

Jacksonville State’s campus was damaged by a tornado Monday night, during this road trip. Gamecocks played only two starters more than 26:00 in Monday’s 80-59 win at Central Arkansas- they led 42-30 at half. Jax State is#59 experience team that plays pace #278- they’re 10-4 outside the OVC. North Texas scored 90-96 points in winning first two tourney games; they’re 7-6 outside C-USA, just 2-3 in their last five home games.

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 21

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Trend Report
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UIC @ AUSTIN PEAY
UIC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
UIC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Austin Peay's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Austin Peay's last 5 games

JACKSONVILLE STATE @ NORTH TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville State's last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Texas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Texas's last 8 games

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ OKLAHOMA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Kentucky's last 6 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games

NORTHERN COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO
Northern Colorado is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Northern Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home

UTAH @ SAINT MARY'S-CALIFORNIA
Utah is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
Saint Mary's-California is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
Saint Mary's-California is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

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**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 09:27 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 21

Western Kentucky @ Oklahoma State

Game 765-766
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
63.718
Oklahoma State
70.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma State
by 7
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 4 1/2
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma State
(-4 1/2); Over

Utah @ St Mary's

Game 767-768
March 21, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
67.811
St Mary's
68.692
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St Mary's
by 1
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St Mary's
by 6 1/2
139 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+6 1/2); Over

Illinois-Chicago @ Austin Peay

Game 769-770
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois-Chicago
54.019
Austin Peay
54.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois-Chicago
Even
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Austin Peay
by 4
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois-Chicago
(+4); Under

Northern Colorado @ San Diego

Game 771-772
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Colorado
54.472
San Diego
58.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 4
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 2
146
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-2); Over

Jacksonville St @ North Texas

Game 777-778
March 21, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville St
56.542
North Texas
55.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville St
by 1
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 1 1/2
138
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville St
(+1 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 09:37 AM

NCAA Tournament opening weekend betting recap: Sorting out the madness
Ashton Grewal

Phew… what an opening weekend in the NCAA Tournament. Underdogs went 1-7 against the spread on Sunday with some big-name programs bowing out early and that wasn’t even the biggest story of the opening weekend.

For the first time ever a No. 16 upset a No. 1 and four days into the Big Dance two one-seeds, two two-seeds and two three-seeds all had their seasons ended. Virginia, North Carolina and Michigan State, all among the top favorites to win the national championship last week, are gone and so are other higher-seeded teams like Xavier, Cincinnati and Tennessee.

Here are the biggest betting takeaways from the play-in games and the opening rounds of the tournament:

Big upsets, big moneyline payouts:

Only two double-digit seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 but there were plenty of large, outright upsets in the Rounds of 64 and 32. The biggest, of course, was UMBC beating top overall seed Virginia by 20 points as a 20.5-point underdog. Many sportsbooks didn't offer moneyline odds on this game but those that did had the Retrievers at +2000. That means a $100 bet on UMBC would have paid $2100.

The Retrievers weren’t the only dogs paying at the betting window for bettors. Marshall won outright as a 13.5-point pup against Wichita State and sportbooks offered +858 pregame odds on the Conference USA champions to win.

A few others of note: Syracuse paid +512 in its upset over MSU, Nevada’s incredible comeback against Cincinnati equaled a +454 win for moneyline bettors (+2200 at their deepest deficit in-game) and Buffalo cashed at +445 in its Round of 64 upset over Arizona.

Under trend:

The Under went 31-21 (including the play-in games) with some ugly, low-scoring games. Loyola-Chicago, Syracuse, Michigan and Kansas State were the worst offenders; the Under went a combined 9-0 in their games.

Favorites not doing as bad as you’d think:

It’s been no cakewalk for chalk teams in the tournament but favorites haven’t been getting murdered against the number. In a weekend filled with upsets, the betting faves went 22-24-1 against the spread. The number excludes the Texas-Nevada game which closed as a pick ‘em.

Higher seeded teams went 13-3 straight up on Thursday and finished the first four days of March Madness with 33-15 outright record.

Bad Beats

There was bound to be plenty of bad beats with 48 college basketball games jammed crammed into a four-day window. Here’s a brief recap of some of the worst ones.

Kansas -4.5 vs. Seton Hall

Devonte’ Graham sinks two free throws to put the Jayhawks up 83-76 with only five seconds left. The Pirates have no chance to win the game trailing by seven points but Myles Powell heaves and hits a contested 3-pointer at the buzzer. Final score: Kansas 83, Seton Hall 79. An undeserved loss for Kansas backers like these people:

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Davidson

This game closed with Big Blue Nation favored by 4.5 but there were plenty of unfortunate souls who got John Calipari’s team at -5.5 or -5. UK led by 10 points with 23 seconds left but Davidson ended up covering thanks to a bunch of last-second craziness – which included a made 3-pointer with 0.6 seconds left to make the final score 78-73.

**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 09:47 AM

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16
Monty Andrews

After an absolutely wild March Madness opening weekend we are down to the Sweet 16. Monty Andrews is here to break down some of the underlying betting mismatches for the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule.

South Region

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (7) (-2, 143.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Nevada's sensational TO ratio

The NCAA Tournament's South Region is an absolute mess to bracket-busted casual fans and favorite bettors - and a sight to behold for those who took shots on some underdogs. Two of the tournament more intriguing teams face off Thursday night as the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tangle with the Nevada Wolfpack; the winner advances to the Elite Eight this weekend, and if it comes down to turnover play, the Ramblers are in serious danger of seeing their Cinderella story come to an end.

On the surface, you might not think the Ramblers have a turnover problem; after all, they finished the regular season with a plus-0.9 average turnover margin and were sensational in their tournament-opening victory over the Miami Hurricanes, finishing with a 16-10 advantage in forced turnovers. But Loyola-Chicago's 12.2 turnovers per game during the season came despite the team playing a slow, deliberate pace on offense - and it actually committed a turnover on 17.1 percent of plays, ranking 257th out of 351 teams.

Contrast that to the Wolf Pack, who took care of the ball like no other team in all of Division I. Nevada ranked fourth in the nation in fewest turnovers per game (9.6) and led the country in lowest turnover rate (11.9 percent). And the Wolf Pack have been even more meticulous with the basketball during March Madness, committing just nine turnovers through their first two games - including a scant two in their upset win over Cincinnati. All those extra possessions could mean big things for Nevada come Thursday.

West Region

Texas A&M Aggies (7) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-3, 134)

Texas A&M's 3-point problems vs. Michigan's stifling long-range D

There have been plenty of incredible performances against high seeds already in March Madness - and Texas A&M is on that list as the Aggies prepare for their Sweet 16 encounter with the Michigan Wolverines. After squeaking past Providence in Round 1, the Aggies put together their best showing of the season in a 21-point blowout win over North Carolina. But getting past the Wolverines and into the Elite Eight will require a much better showing from deep than they mustered in the regular season.

Texas A&M struggled from 3-point range during the year, shooting just 33.2 percent - ranking 269th out of 351 Division I schools in that category. And while the Aggies shot a blistering 41.7 percent from deep in their stunning victory over the Tar Heels, that showing came against a North Carolina team that ranks in the bottom 50 nationally in 3-point defense. This is not a good long-range shooting team - and in a game that is expected to be close, that deficiency could come back to haunt Texas A&M.

The Wolverines will do their best to make sure the Aggies don't repeat the long-range shooting success they had against North Carolina - and Michigan is well-equipped to do the job. The West Region's No. 3 seed limited opponents to just 5.5 made 3-pointers on 16.2 attempts per game - both ranking as the seventh-lowest marks in the country; the Wolverines also hold foes to a 34 percent success rate. If the Aggies do advance to the weekend, it probably won't be due to a newly-discovered 3-point shooting prowess.

East Region

West Virginia Mountaineers (5) vs. Villanova Wildcats (1) (-5, 153)

West Virginia's bad behavior vs. Villanova's foul aversion skills

West Virginia has enjoyed back-to-back laughers against low seeds - but things are about to get a whole lot more difficult for the No. 5 Mountaineers as they brace for an East Region third-round encounter with top-seeded Villanova. West Virginia defeated No. 12 Murray State and No. 13 Marshall by a combined 40 points, but will need to be on its best behaviour - literally - against a Wildcats team that can score at will at one end of the floor and doesn't give up many free-throw chances at the other.

Despite rolling past the Racers 85-68 and trouncing the Thundering Herd 94-71, West Virginia wasn't able to mask its deficiencies in the foul department. The Mountaineers committed 39 combined fouls in the two games, leading to 44 total free throws against - a sky-high number for a team that controlled both games. But that's common for a West Virginia team that ranked in the bottom 50 in free-throw makes and attempts against while averaging a whopping 21.4 fouls during the season, 13th-most in the nation.

That kind of infraction-happy defensive play just won't fly against the Wildcats, who have proven they can dominate without having to worry about being in foul trouble. Villanova ranked 44th in free-throw makes allowed (11.7) and 23rd in attempts surrendered (15.6), and their 16.0 personal fouls per game placed them in a tie for 36th in the country. That 5.4 fouls-per-game difference is significant no matter the opponent - but when it's Villanova with the edge, West Virginia could be in serious trouble Friday.

Midwest Region

Syracuse Orange (11) vs. Duke Blue Devils (2) (-11.5, 133)

Orange's dismal pass defense vs. Blue Devils' awesome ball distribution

Syracuse has the distinction of being one of only four double-digit seeds in the history of the NCAA Tournament to reach the Final Four - and the No. 11 Orange would love nothing more than to repeat the feat as they tangle with the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in third-round action Friday night. But it won't be an easy task for Syracuse, which comes in as a double-digit underdog that has already lost to Duke by 16 points this season - and it could have a major problem trying to slow down Duke's assist-heavy attack.

Good passing teams had a field day against Syracuse this past season; the Orange allowed opponents to average 16.1 assists per contest - good for 330th in the country - while the 0.761 assists per made field goal they surrendered ranked dead last in the country. Duke exposed Syracuse's shoddy pass defense in their Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season encounter back on Feb. 24, when the Blue Devils racked up 16 assists on just 22 made field goals en route to a 60-44 drubbing.

The Blue Devils' offense is dangerous in many areas, but passing efficiency is certainly near the top of that list. Duke averaged 17.8 assists per game during the season - tied for sixth-most in the country - while ranking 48th in assists per made field goal (0.58); that number has climbed to 0.68 through Duke's first two games of March Madness. If the Orange can't find a way to disrupt the passing lines, they might once again end up on the wrong end of a rout at the hands of the Blue Devils.

**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 01:55 PM

Florida State's pressure is a big problem for Gonzaga in Sweet 16
Jason Logan

Some may blame it on rust or opening-night jitters, but the No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs are lucky to be in the Sweet 16 after a 68-64 win over No. 13 NC-Greensboro as 13-point favorites in the Round of 64 last Thursday. That slim four-point victory may have set the blueprint for how to beat the Bulldogs, as they get ready to face No. 9 Florida State in the West Regional semifinals.

Gonzaga, which had a week off between winning the WCC tournament title and its NCAA opener, was thrown for a loop against the Spartans. NC-Greensboro battled the Bulldogs hard on both ends of the floor, but it was their full-court pressure defense that had the biggest effect on the Zags. And it’s the same style of defense the Seminoles will throw at Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, with oddsmakers pegging FSU as a 5.5-point underdog.

The Bulldogs, who had an easier time with Ohio State in the Round of 32, were constantly hounded by the Spartans’ pressure, with NC-Greensboro not necessarily looking to cause turnovers with the press but simply slow down the Zags' ball handlers and force them to chew up the shot clock before getting into their half-court offense.

It worked, with Gonzaga firing just 42 percent from the field, including 21.7 percent from 3-point range. The Bulldogs were forced into poor shot choices as the shot clock dwindled and that allowed NC-Greensboro to rebound and attack in transition, with the Spartans getting plenty of points at the rim and nearly pulling off the upset as +700 moneyline pups.

The Seminoles defense was the catalyst behind one of the biggest upsets of the tournament. After Florida State dropped Missouri in the Round of 64, it found itself down 12 points in the second half to No. 1 seed Xavier, but turned up the intensity on defense, forcing some bad turnovers from the Musketeers late in the game and punched its ticket to the Sweet 16 with a 75-70 win as a 5.5-point underdog.

“I tell you, the reason that we’re not moving on was turnovers on our part caused by a tremendous amount of pressure from Florida State,” Xavier head coach Chris Mack told reporters after the game.

The Noles forced 18 Xavier turnovers in that second-round tilt and squeezed 15 turnovers out of Missouri in the opening tournament game. On the season, Florida State averages 14.3 forced turnovers an outing – ranked 62nd in the country.

Fueling the FSU pressure is a long bench for head coach Leonard Hamilton. He went six deep into his backups against Xavier, getting a combined 111 minutes of work from those reserves. That bench depth allows the Seminoles to matchup full court and keep the pressure on opponents, without the fear of running their tank dry or letting up on the offensive end.

Florida State, coming out of the ACC, is no stranger to quality competition. It earned an at-large bid to the Big Dance thanks to wins over tournament teams Florida, North Carolina, Clemson, Syracuse, Miami, and Virginia Tech, and covered as an 11.5-point underdog at Cameron Indoor, falling to Duke 100-93 back in late December.

Gonzaga, for the most part, takes care of the basketball and averages just 11.3 turnovers per game on the season. In the NCAA tournament so far, the Zags posted 10 turnovers versus NC-Greensboro and 13 against Ohio State. However, in the Bulldogs’ three non-conference losses (they only lost four games all year), turnovers were a major issue.

Gonzaga had 14 turnovers in a loss to Florida (which lost to FSU) in the Phil Knight Invitational in November, coughed the ball up 19 times in a defeat to Villanova in the Jimmy V Classic in New York, and gave the ball up 16 times in the loss to San Diego State in late December. All three games resulted in ATS losses for Bulldogs backers. The spread for Thursday's game opened as high as Gonzaga -6.5 but early money on the Seminoles has trimmed an entire point off the board.

The total for Thursday’s Sweet 16 showdown between Gonzaga and Florida is set at 153.5 points, after opening at 154. Tipoff is set for 10:05 p.m. ET at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 02:00 PM

Minus Haas, one-dimensional Boilermakers could burn bettors vs. Texas Tech
Andrew Caley

Barring the Purdue engineering department building Isaac Haas a bionic arm in the next two days, it sounds like the school's star big man will miss Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup against Texas Tech (+1.5) with a fractured elbow and that could spell trouble for Boilermakers backers.

Purdue managed to gut out a 76-73 win over the bruising Butler Bulldogs in the Round of 32, coming up short as a 4-point favorite. It was the first game the Boilermakers played without Haas during his entire four-year college career and despite the win, his absence was felt from the boxscore to the betting window.

First, the Boilermakers failed to cover the spread again. They're just 2-12-1 against the spread in their previous 15 games and the two games they did cover were expected to be blowouts, cashing as -18.5 and 20-point faves. Oddsmakers consider Haas’ loss to be fairly significant, placing his value to Purdue's spread anywhere between two and 3.5 points.

Haas’ impact, or lack thereof, is just as noticeable on the court. Purdue was not a great rebounding team with its 7-foot-2 center in the lineup, pulling down just 35.1 per contest - ranked 187th In the country. Against Butler, it pulled down just 30 boards (Haas averages 5.7 rebounds per game).

With Haas out of the lineup, Purdue had to rely on what it does best: shooting the 3-ball. The Boilermakers rank second in the nation in 3-point percentage, hitting 42.1 percent on the season, taking nearly 23 attempts from beyond the arc per game. Purdue shot 24 3-pointers against Butler, hitting 11 (45.8), which seems normal on the surface.

However, Purdue’s best player and leading scorer, Carsen Edwards seemed to struggle without his big man. The sophomore guard went just 3 for 10 from deep against a Bulldogs team that was pretty abysmal at defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to shoot almost 38 percent from beyond the arc.

Enter the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Red Raiders' entire game plan revolves around making life miserable for opposing offenses. They rank 15th in both points allowed per game (64.6) and opponents field goal percentage (40.3) and limit opposing teams to just 32.7 percent from 3-point range. In the tournament, they've allowed opponents to shoot just 39 percent from the field and 31.5 percent from deep. Texas Tech will be licking its chops facing a one-dimensional Purdue team.

Throw in the fact the Red Raiders have not only the best point guard you’ve never heard of in Keenen Evans, but arguably the best point guard left in the tournament. When Texas Tech was struggling late in the season, Evens was dealing with a turf toe injury and missed four games. Texas Tech lost and failed to cover in all four games without Evans.

He looks healthy and is carrying this Red Raiders team once more. Evans is averaging 22.5 points per game in the tourney on 58.3 percent shooting and can be a difference-make in this matchup.

Purdue is currently a 1.5-point favorite in this Sweet 16 matchup, which is scheduled to tipoff at 9:57 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston.

**Udog** · 03-21-2018, 02:04 PM

Michigan's Wagner will make or break your Wolverines wagers vs. Texas A&M in Sweet 16
Jason Logan

The Michigan Wolverines’ greatest strength has possibly been their biggest weakness in the NCAA tournament. Versatile big man Moritz Wagner, who led the team in scoring with 14.2 points per game this season, has been invisible at times during the Big Dance. As invisible as a 6-foot-11 center can be.

Wagner, who has scored a total of just 17 points in the Wolverines’ first two NCAA games, is the key to neutralizing a big and physical Texas A&M squad in the Sweet 16. His ability to step beyond the foul line and draw bigger defenders away from the bucket will help Michigan open up the paint against one of the stingiest interior defenses left in the tournament.

That sounds simple enough. But as most basketball bettors know, nothing is simple during March Madness. Wagner’s quality of play has declined as the Wolverines’ overall success has skyrocketed. Michigan has won 11 straight games going into Thursday’s showdown in Los Angeles, covering the spread in nine of those contests.

All the while, Wagner’s minutes have decreased (24.8 mins per postseason game), along with it his production. It seems his only stat on the rise is fouls, for which he’s been whistled for 43 times during that winning streak – an average of 3.9 personal fouls per game.

That’s a rotten way to be trending when coming up against an Aggies team that thrives on physicality and has drawn 43 total fouls in tournament wins over Providence and North Carolina. The Wolverines as a squad, do a good job avoiding foul trouble - 15.8 personal fouls per game – but got whistled 22 times in the nail-biting win over Houston in the Round of 32, with the Cougars picking up 16-of-22 free throws.

“Obviously foul trouble is a pain in the butt,” Wagner told The Detroit News. “I think we just got to get better as unit. We had trouble (against Houston), all of us. We take ourselves out of rhythm offensively as well as defensively and put them on the line. We got to stop that stuff. You got to adjust to that."

Wagner isn’t alone in the paint for the Wolverines, who also boast 6-foot-10 bodies in Jon Teske and Austin Davis. But it is the German junior’s touch from mid-range and beyond the arc that could give Texas A&M a tough time.

Wagner made 56 3-pointers on better than 40 percent shooting from beyond the arc and played some his best games against another beefy interior team that owns the boards: Michigan State. Wagner scored 15 points – despite poor shooting – and grabbed eight rebounds in the win over MSU in the Big Ten tournament, and dropped 27 points (including three 3-pointers) on the Spartans in East Lansing in mid-January. The Wolverines won and covered in both of those rivalry meetings.

Michigan did face another top-rebounding team – actually the top rebounding team – in North Carolina, which Texas A&M stomped by 21 points in the Round of 32. The Wolverines' game with the Tar Heels came way back in November, with UM losing the battle of the boards (34-27) and on the scoreboard, 86-71 as a 9-point dog in Chapel Hill. Wagner went 9-for-13 shooting for 20 points and nine rebounds in that game. But a lot has changed with Michigan and Mo Wagner since that loss to UNC.

“My goal is always to bring something to the table even when it doesn’t work offensively. Whether that’s energy, leadership, that’s what you got to do, man. It doesn’t matter how much you score,” Wagner told reporters during this week's preparation for the Sweet 16.

And that could be true Thursday night. Wagner may not need to score a lot of points, but he will need to avoid foul trouble, stay in the game, and hit at least a couple shots from mid-range or longer to stretch this might Texas A&M defense.

The Aggies give up only 40.3 percent shooting from the field – 11th lowest in the country – and checked North Carolina to 33.3 percent in the second-round matchup. They’re ninth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating (93.4) and were just placed at No. 3 in the NCAA’s new Sweet 16 rankings, with Michigan coming in at No. 12.

The total for Thursday’s Sweet 16 game in L.A. opened at 134 points and has since been bet up 136. The Aggies and Wolverines – two of the top defensive teams among the Field of 68 - are a combined 1-3 Over/Under in the NCAA tournament.

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