Announcement

**Udog** · 02-05-2018, 09:11 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Odds to win the 2018 World Series

5-1— Bronx Bombers

11-2— Houston Astros

6-1— Los Angeles Dodgers

15-2— Cleveland Indians

9-1— Chicago Cubs

10-1— Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a super Sunday

13) Eagles 41, Patriots 33— Before this season, Nick Foles was 20-16 as an NFL starting QB; he has never started more than 11 games in a season. Now he is a Philadelphia legend.

Foles was 28-43 for 373 yards and three TD’s, ending an improbable story where he took over for an injured Carson Wentz and led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl title and 4th NFL title, their first one since 1960.

I completely whiffed on this game; didn’t think a backup QB could hang 41 in a Super Bowl, so the next question is, does Foles go back to being a backup next year, or do the Eagles trade him, and if so, where do they trade him?

12) This game broke the Super Bowl record for most total yards before the third quarter was over.

11) So the Eagles score their first TD to make score 9-3; before they can try the PAT (which they missed), my DirecTV goes out, so I have to go downstairs, retrieve a stepladder and go out to sweep the inch or so of snow off the satellite dish. No bueno.

Also had my 2017 tax return done by halftime, making it the most productive 90 minutes of my 2018, by far. Muy bueno.

10) What does ESPN show during the Super Bowl?
ESPN2— World Series of Poker
ESPNU— College gymnastics
ESPN— 30 for 30 on wrestler Ric Flair

9) New England’s field goal on their first drive were first 1st-quarter points they’ve scored in the eight Super Bowls Brady has played in.

This was first Super Bowl where both starting QB’s threw for 100+ yards each in first quarter.

8) Over/under on numbers of players to throw a pass was 2.5, with the over +$180. Four guys threw passes in the first half.

7) Home underdogs in college basketball were 0-6 vs spread Sunday; that doesn’t happen much.

6) Gary Woodland shot a 64 Sunday and won the Phoenix Open. Best shot of the day was on the 16th hole, when Matt Kuchar damn near aced the popular par-3.

5) How many football coaches around the country will put that trick play in that the Eagles used to score their second TD? That will be a popular 2-point play in high school games next fall.

When Eagles’ TE Trey Burton went to college at Florida, he thought he would be Tim Tebow’s replacement at QB, but that never worked out. Funny how eight years later he throws a TD pass in a Super Bowl.

4) First half total yardage was 350-323, Patriots; both teams averaged over nine yards per play.

How would you like to be a Lions’ fan and see that stat? One DC (Jim Schwartz) used to be the Lions’ coach; the other (Matt Patricia) is the Lions’ next head coach.

3) There had never been a sack-less Super Bowl; Graham’s sack/fumble with 2:10 left was the first sack of the game. Pretty good time for it.

2) Friend of mine had two squares in a $1,000 per square pool; I’m guessing the guy who had 2-2 was cursing the fates…….until halftime, when the score was 22-12. Cha-ching!!!

1- I’m guessing this Super Bowl got tremendous TV ratings; it was a terrific, fun game, with a dramatic finish. Next year’s Super Bowl is in Atlanta’s new stadium. Who will be in it?

**Udog** · 02-05-2018, 09:34 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, February 5

Pistons won their last four games with Portland; over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Blazers are 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to Detroit. Portland lost its last two games after a 7-1 run; they’re 11-6-1 as road underdogs. Under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Detroit won its last three games; they’re 7-11 as home favorites. Pistons’ last five games went over the total.

Washington won its last three games with the Pacers; they covered their last five visits to Indiana. Eight of last ten series games went over total. Wizards are 4-0 since John Wall had his knee scoped; they’re 9-3 as road underdogs. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Pacers won six of their last eight games; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as home favorites. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

Miami/Orlando split their last 10 meetings; underdogs covered five of last seven. Magic are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Miami. Seven of last nine series games went over. Orlando lost four of its last five games; they covered last six tries as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over the total. Heat lost its last three games, all on road; they’re 4-11-1 as home favorites. Six of their last seven games stayed under.

Jazz won five of last six games with New Orleans; they’re 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to Bourbon Street. Five of last seven series games went over. Utah won its last five games; they’re 5-1 vs spread in last six road games. Six of their last nine games went over total. Pelicans lost three of their last four games; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. Four of their last six games stayed under.

Nuggets lost seven of last nine games with Charlotte; eight of those games stayed under the total. Hornets covered three of their last four visits to Denver. Charlotte won its last three games; they’re 7-9-2 as road underdogs, 2-0 vs spread on road if they played night before. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Denver won five of its last seven games; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Three of their last four games went over.

Chicago won five of its last six games with the Kings; seven of last nine series games went under the total. Bulls are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Sacramento. Chicago lost its last six games; they’re 13-10-1 as road underdogs. Six of their last eight games stayed under the total. Kings lost seven of their last ten games; they’re 0-3 as home favorites. Three of their last four games went over the total.

Clippers won five of last eight games with Dallas; under is 5-3 in those games. Mavericks 1-3-1 vs spread in last five series games played in Staples. Dallas lost eight of its last ten games; they covered eight of last nine games as road underdogs. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Clippers won three of their last four games; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as home favorites. LA’s last four games stayed under the total.

**Udog** · 02-05-2018, 09:36 AM

NBA

Monday, February 5

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Trend Report
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PORTLAND @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Portland

WASHINGTON @ INDIANA
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indiana's last 11 games when playing Washington

ORLANDO @ MIAMI
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

UTAH @ NEW ORLEANS
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 13 of New Orleans's last 16 games at home

CHARLOTTE @ DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Charlotte

CHICAGO @ SACRAMENTO
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Sacramento's last 9 games when playing Chicago

DALLAS @ LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Clippers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 02-05-2018, 11:29 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, February 5

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PORTLAND (29 - 24) at DETROIT (25 - 26) - 2/5/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (30 - 22) at INDIANA (30 - 24) - 2/5/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 19-38 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game since 1996.
INDIANA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (15 - 36) at MIAMI (29 - 24) - 2/5/2018, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 6-5 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (24 - 28) at NEW ORLEANS (28 - 24) - 2/5/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (23 - 29) at DENVER (28 - 25) - 2/5/2018, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (18 - 34) at SACRAMENTO (16 - 36) - 2/5/2018, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (17 - 36) at LA CLIPPERS (26 - 25) - 2/5/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
DALLAS is 400-327 ATS (+40.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 496-416 ATS (+38.4 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 110-143 ATS (-47.3 Units) in February games since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-05-2018, 12:07 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, February 5

Portland @ Detroit

Game 701-702
February 5, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
116.225
Detroit
121.732
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 5 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2
210 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2); Under

Washington @ Indiana

Game 703-704
February 5, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
117.214
Indiana
121.445
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 4
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-2); Under

Orlando @ Miami

Game 705-706
February 5, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
116.409
Miami
120.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 4 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 7
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(+7); Over

Utah @ New Orleans

Game 707-708
February 5, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
119.807
New Orleans
118.227
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+2); Over

Charlotte @ Denver

Game 709-710
February 5, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
114.731
Denver
121.809
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Sacramento

Game 711-712
February 5, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
112.731
Sacramento
117.348
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 4 1/2
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 1
211
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(-1); Over

Dallas @ LA Clippers

Game 713-714
February 5, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
116.298
LA Clippers
120.313
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 4
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 6 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+6 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 02-05-2018, 07:51 PM

NBA Betting Road Map: Bucks playing under the total with new coach
Al McMordie

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are playing better defense with a new bench boss. The Bucks are allowing 95.7 points over their last six games and the under is 13-2 in their last 15.

The Boston Celtics made a big move last week when they signed Greg Monroe after he was bought out by the Phoenix Suns. And the East's top-seeded team might have more players in its sight as GM Danny Ainge refuses to stand pat with his roster. The trade deadline is on Thursday, so the next four days will be significant for the playoff contenders.

Spread Watch

The Utah Jazz enter the week as one of the league's hottest team with a 5-0 mark straight up and against the spread in their last five contests. The Jazz, who are one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA, are averaging 126 points for over their last three games. And they’re filling the hoop against good teams like the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs.

The Jazz have road games at New Orleans (Monday), Memphis (Wednesday) and Portland (Sunday), along with a home date vs. Charlotte, on Friday. The one game I have circled to fade them is Monday's against the Pelicans.

First, the Jazz might be without rookie Donovan Mitchell, who also missed Saturday's win in San Antonio. And teams have been poor on the road off five straight wins and covers when they're matched up against a rested opponent off a straight-up loss. Since 1990 NBA clubs are 80-104-10 ATS (43.4 percent win rate). Take the Pelicans over the Jazz on Monday.

Total Watch

The Milwaukee Bucks were 23-22 straight up and 18-23-4 ATS and the over was when they fired head coach Jason Kidd two weeks ago. And they had gone over the total in 27 of their 45 games. The Bucks have gone 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS and 7-0 under the total since interim coach Joe Purnty took charge.

And Prunty also filled in as head coach for a game vs. the Wizards, on November 20, and that game went under the total as well.

The coaching change and under trend is one coincidence because Milwaukee is playing much better defense. The Bucks have held five of their last seven opponents under 100 points – something they’d only done 12 times in their first 45 games of the season.

Prunty has moved his team away from Kidd's high-pressure, trapping style on defense, and that's paid big off.

On offense, Prunty has emphasized the movement of the ball from side to side. Will Milwaukee's string of unders continue this week? They'll hit the road with games at New York, Miami and Orlando. Certainly, the first two games are good candidates to be low scoring: The under is 5-0 in the Knicks’ last five games and 6-1 in Miami’s last seven.

Of the two, the Friday night game against the Heat looks to be the best to play the under. The Heat and Bucks have played over the total in just three of the last 11 meetings at Miami.

Injury Watch

When it rains, it pours. Cleveland Cavaliers All-Star Kevin Love is out for an extended period with a non-displaced fracture in his left hand. And Love has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for Cleveland, as he's averaging 17.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per game with a 22.88 PER (Player Efficiency Rating).

Coach Ty Lue changed his rotations two games prior, and the Cavaliers won and covered both of those games (just the second time all season the Cavs won and covered two straight games). But Cleveland is 0-3 ATS since and is 14-36-1 ATS on the season -- the NBA's worst point spread record through 50 or more games in the last 28 years.

This week, Cleveland will try to right its sinking ship with games against Orlando, Minnesota and Atlanta. I will be looking to play on Cleveland in certain situations over the next few months because I believe they will be undervalued, given their horrific ATS record.

Cleveland's game in Orlando on Tuesday is one I've circled to play on LeBron James & Co. Cleveland has dominated Orlando, with a 19-2 SU and 16-5 ATS record over the past six seasons.

The Cavs will also play that game with two days' rest while the Magic will be coming off a game the previous night in Miami. Take the Cavaliers minus the points.

Schedule Watch

The San Antonio Spurs haven't caught many breaks this season. Their best player, Kawhi Leonard, has suited up for just nine games this season and remains out indefinitely and key free agent signee Rudy Gay remains sidelined. It's not too surprising the Spurs are flirting with their worst season record since 1996-97.

This week, the Spurs will attempt to snap their two-game losing streak (and three-game ATS losing streak) with games at Phoenix and Golden State. I love San Antonio vs. the Suns on Wednesday because Phoenix will not be rested and the Spurs will have had the previous three days off.

And San Antonio is 84-53-2 ATS vs. unrested foes and 34-13-1 ATS as a road favorite in the regular season off three (or more) ATS defeats.

Take the Spurs on Wednesday.

Announcement

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/5

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/5

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