Announcement

**Udog** · 01-24-2018, 08:23 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Patriots’ Super Bowls in Brady/Belichick era (underdogs 5-2 vs spread):

2001: W20-17 vs Rams +14

2003: W32-29 vs Carolina -7

2004: W24-21 vs Philadelphia -7

2007: L14-17 vs NJ Giants -12

2011: L17-21 vs NJ Giants -3

2014: W28-24 vs Seattle -1

2016: W34-28 vs Atlanta OT -3

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: some college knowledge……

Some college basketball notes for a winter Wednesday (thru Monday’s games)
13) Most experienced teams in country:
1) Tex-Arlington (13-8)
3) Idaho (13-6)
4) Tennessee Tech (13-8)
5) Missouri State (15-6)

12) Teams with best defensive eFG%:
1) Michigan State
2) Virginia
4) Cincinnati
5) Purdue
6) San Diego

11) Teams that force the highest %age of turnovers:
1) Stephen F Austin 28.5%
2) West Virginia 26.1%
3) St John’s 24.5%
5) Portland State 24.1%

10) San Diego State is only 11-7 in Brian Dutcher’s first year as coach; they’re 3-4 in Mountain West games, after going 152-56 the previous 12 years under Steve Fisher. How is it different?

— Aztecs are playing faster; pace #116- they were under 300th the last four years
— Teams are shooting 40.1% on arc vs San Diego State; their defensive rating is lowest it has been since 2006. Their offensive numbers are actually slightly better than usual this year.
— Aztecs lost last three games, by 3-4-4 points; their point guard play could be better.

9) Best 3-point shooting teams in country:
1) Purdue 43.7%
2) Wofford 42.6%
3) Wm&Mary 42.5%
4) Idaho 42.5%

8) Teams that get highest %age of their points on 3-pointers:
1) Washington State 47.5%
2) Belmont 45.4%
3) Elon 43.4%
4) Davidson 42.7%

7) Best free throws shooting teams:
1) Wm&Mary 80.8%
2) Central Michigan 80.2%
5) Marquette 79.3%
6) Oregon 79%

6) Teams that get highest %age of their points on free throws:
1) Cal-Fullerton 26.7%
2) Northern Arizona 25.4%
T3) South Carolina/Wyoming 24.6%

5) The Big X is totally loaded; Baylor/Iowa State are the lowest teams and they’re good. Kansas is 6-1 in Big X, with zero wins by more than six points.

4) Only five of the first 37 Big East conference games were decided by 4 or less points.

3) Home teams are only 20-19 SU in Mountain West games so far this season.

2) Top teams vs spread this season:
1) South Alabama 13-3
2) Belmont 14-5
3) Montana 13-4
4) East Tennessee State 12-3-1

1— Worst 3-point shooters in country:
351) Sacred Heart 27.2%
349) East Carolina 27.5%
346) Fordham 28.2%
344) Memphis 29.1%

**Udog** · 01-24-2018, 08:36 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, January 24

76ers lost nine of last ten games with Chicago (over 8-2). Bulls are 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to Philly. Chicago won four of last six games; they’re 10-1 vs spread in last 11 tries as road underdogs. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Sixers won seven of their last nine games; they’re 9-6 vs spread as home favorites. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

Home side won seven of last eight Pelican-Hornet games; New Orleans is 1-3-1 vs spread in last five visits to Charlotte. Nine of last ten series games went over total. Pelicans won four of their last six games; three of their last four wins were in OT. NO is 7-7 vs spread as road underdogs. Five of their last six games went over total. Charlotte won three of its last four games; 11-7 as home favorites.

Jazz won seven of last ten games with Detroit; Utah is 4-1 vs spread in last five visits to the Motor City. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Jazz lost seven of last ten games; they’re 6-12 as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over. Pistons lost their last five games; they’re 1-6 in last seven games as home favorites. Four of their last six home games stayed under the total.

Pacers won four of last five games with Phoenix; road team won last four series games. Suns covered three of last four visits here. Six of last eight series games stayed under. Phoenix lost four of their last five games; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as road underdogs. Six of their last seven games stayed under total. Indiana won six of its last nine games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as home favorites. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games.

Raptors won seven of last ten games with Atlanta; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here- four of those games stayed under total. Toronto is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as road favorites. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Atlanta won three of last four games; they covered last five tries as a home underdog. Hawks’ last four games stayed under the total.

Spurs won eight of their last ten games with Memphis; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Tennessee. Five of last six series games went over total. San Antonio split their last ten games; they’re 1-5 vs spread on road if they played night before. Six of their last seven games stayed under total. Grizzlies won four of their last five games; they’re 10-14 vs spread at home. Four of their last five games went over total.

Rockets won eight of last ten games with Dallas; they covered three of last four games in this building. Five of last six series games stayed under total. Houston won six of its last seven games; they’re 11-8 as road favorites- their last five games stayed under the total. Mavericks lost six of last nine games; they covered last five games as home underdogs. Five of their last seven games stayed under total.

Minnesota won three of last four games with Portland; home side won last five series games. Wolves are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oregon. Three of last four series games went over the total. Timberwolves won seven of last nine games; they’re 6-7 as road underdogs. Four of their last six games went over. Portland won three of last four games; they’re 4-3 in last seven games as home favorites. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Clippers won six of last eight games with Boston; home side won last four. Celtics are 2-3 vs spread in last five series games played here. Under is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Boston lost its last four games, by 8-9-1-3 points; under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Celtics are 13-8 vs spread on road, 3-5 if they played night before. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Clippers lost last two games after a 6-game win streak; over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

**Udog** · 01-24-2018, 08:36 AM

NBA

Wednesday, January 24

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Trend Report
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UTAH @ DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Utah is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah

PHOENIX @ INDIANA
Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games at home

NEW ORLEANS @ CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games

CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

TORONTO @ ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

HOUSTON @ DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

SAN ANTONIO @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

MINNESOTA @ PORTLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Portland is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Minnesota

BOSTON @ LA CLIPPERS
Boston is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 11 games

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**Udog** · 01-24-2018, 09:39 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, January 24

Chicago @ Philadelphia

Game 701-702
January 24, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
115.404
Philadelphia
124.518
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
218
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5); Over

New Orleans @ Charlotte

Game 703-704
January 24, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
116.732
Charlotte
121.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 5
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 1 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(-1 1/2); Over

Utah @ Detroit

Game 705-706
January 24, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
117.896
Detroit
116.442
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1 1/2
197
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
201 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+3); Under

Phoenix @ Indiana

Game 707-708
January 24, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
115.734
Indiana
119.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 4
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 8
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+8); Under

Toronto @ Atlanta

Game 709-710
January 24, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
120.404
Atlanta
116.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 4
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6
214
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+6); Over

San Antonio @ Memphis

Game 711-712
January 24, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
118.702
Memphis
121.338
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 2 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
N/A

Houston @ Dallas

Game 713-714
January 24, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.742
Dallas
117.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 9 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-5 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Portland

Game 715-716
January 24, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
121.492
Portland
118.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A

Boston @ LA Clippers

Game 717-718
January 24, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
119.209
LA Clippers
122.421
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 3
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
No Line
N/a
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
N/A

**Udog** · 01-24-2018, 09:43 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, January 24

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CHICAGO (18 - 29) at PHILADELPHIA (22 - 21) - 1/24/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 73-51 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHICAGO is 89-52 ATS (+31.8 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (25 - 21) at CHARLOTTE (19 - 26) - 1/24/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 71-43 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 53-67 ATS (-20.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 48-79 ATS (-38.9 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH (19 - 28) at DETROIT (22 - 23) - 1/24/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DETROIT is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (17 - 30) at INDIANA (25 - 22) - 1/24/2018, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (31 - 14) at ATLANTA (14 - 32) - 1/24/2018, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-3 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (31 - 18) at MEMPHIS (17 - 29) - 1/24/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 11-8 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 16-4 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (33 - 12) at DALLAS (16 - 31) - 1/24/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 399-324 ATS (+42.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 250-200 ATS (+30.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 114-84 ATS (+21.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (31 - 18) at PORTLAND (25 - 22) - 1/24/2018, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (34 - 14) at LA CLIPPERS (23 - 23) - 1/24/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 2-2 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-24-2018, 03:42 PM

NBA Betting Roadmap: Cavaliers on pace to be worst bet of all time
Al McMordie

The NBA All-Stars were announced on Tuesday an, per usual, there were several snubs. The biggest of all the snubs was Detroit's Andre Drummond, who is averaging 14.3 points, 15 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. But, given the way the league's current players treat the All-Star game (run-and-gun with zero defense), Drummond's strengths wouldn't even be brought to bear in the game, so it's not worth shedding a tear. Let's take a look around the league.

Spread Watch

In one way, the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing worse than any NBA team of the past 28 seasons. Yes, they have a 27-19 record, but they're just 12-33-1 (.266) ATS in those 46 games. That's by far the worst point spread win percentage of any team through 46-plus games in the last 28 years. To put it into further context, let's take a look at the next five worst marks.

In the 2013-14 season, the Bucks were 15-31 (.326) ATS, in 2008-09, the Grizzlies were 15-30-1 (.333) ATS, as were the Cavaliers in 2010-11. Then, in 1994-95, the Warriors were 15-29-2 (.340) ATS, while the Timberwolves equaled that record in 2004-05. So, the Cavaliers' ATS win percentage is a whopping .060 worse than the second worst record. That may not seem like a big margin, but it's absolutely huge. Indeed, consider that the difference between the Cavaliers and the second worst-ranked Bucks (.060) is equal to the difference between the 2nd worst-ranked Bucks (.326) and the 35th worst-ranked teams (there were seven teams tied for 35th place with a 18-28 (.386) ATS record).

On Tuesday, the Cavaliers were upset, 114-102, by the San Antonio Spurs and that was the ninth straight point spread defeat for LeBron James & Co. This week, the Cavs will attempt to cash a ticket in Las Vegas with two home games against the Pacers (Friday) and Pistons (Sunday), before a re-match with the Pistons in the Motor City on Tuesday. Of these games, expect Cleveland to blow out Indiana. It's true that the Pacers have already defeated the Cavaliers in the season's first two meeting, but NBA favorites, playing with double-revenge from two losses earlier in the season, are a solid 127-93 (58 percent ATS) in the regular season since 1990, if they're also off an upset loss in their previous game. Take the Cavaliers on Friday.

Total Watch

The San Antonio Spurs have been among the most injury-riddled teams this season. In their last game -- a 114-102 win over Cleveland -- no less than four rotation players (Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili) were sidelined. Indeed, the TNT Television announcing team joked that the Spurs had a better team out with injury than the starting five in the game (LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis Bertans, Dejounte Murray, Kyle Anderson and Danny Green).

The hardest thing for the Spurs right now is scoring the basketball, as Aldridge is their only consistent offensive weapon. Not surprisingly, six of the Spurs' last seven games have gone Under the total (with just the game against the defensively-challenged Cavaliers sailing Over).

This week, the Spurs will visitthe Grizzlies on Wednesday, before returning home to take on Philly and Sacramento. Like the Spurs, Memphis has also been going Under the total this season (26-18 Under). Wednesday should produce a relatively low-scoring game, as the Spurs have gone 19-5 Under the total when playing without rest after a home win the previous night.

Injury Watch

The Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the last two games (vs. Philadelphia and Phoenix), as he is suffering from soreness in his left knee. He also sat out games on Nov. 22 and Dec. 23 with the same ailment. Without their superstar in the lineup, the Bucks went 1-3 SU and ATS in those four games.

The good news is that Antetokounmpo is scheduled to play Friday, at home vs. Brooklyn and he will have had a full eight days' of rest going into that game, which will (hopefully) have alleviated his soreness. With their All-Star back in the lineup, pull the trigger on the Bucks vs. the Nets, as Milwaukee is 23-6 SU and 21-7-1 ATS vs. the Nets in the last 29 meetings, including 16-4 ATS as a favorite.

Schedule Watch

On Sunday, the Philadelphia 76ers will travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder and what's most noteworthy about this game, is that the Thunder own the longest current win streak versus an opponent, as they've defeated the 76ers 17 straight times (12-5 ATS) since 2009.

The knee-jerk reaction might be to play OKC this game, but consider that teams on a 16-game (or worse) losing streak have actually done quite well over the years, as they're 49-22 ATS in the regular season since 1997. Take Philadelphia plus the points on Sunday.

Announcement

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/24

Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/24

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