Announcement

**Udog** · 12-25-2017, 10:16 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 16 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Cincinnati Bengals, +4.5 (558)- W

5) Tennessee Titans, +6.5 (559)- W

4) Dallas Cowboys, -4.5 (606)- L

3) New Orleans Saints, -5.5 (671)- W

2) Jacksonville Jaguars, -4.5 (694)- L

1) Los Angeles Rams, -6.5 (766)- L

Record of top 6 picks each week: 47-46–3

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Rams 27, Titans 23— On opponents’ opening drives this season, Rams forced 8 turnovers on 15 drives, which is an amazing stat. Todd Gurley was a beast in this game; 118 rushing yards, 158 receiving yards, two touchdowns. Rams clinch their first divisional title since 2003.

Tennessee lost its 3rd game in row, is in danger of missing the playoffs for 10th year in a row. Seven of Titans’ last nine games were decided by five or less points. If Tennessee loses next week, they could still make it playoffs if Bills/Chargers also lose.

Bengals 26, Lions 17— This loss KO’s Detroit from playoff contention and likely ends the tenure of Jim Caldwell as head coach. Matthew Stafford makes $27M a year; he is now 59-65 as an NFL starter, 0-3 in playoff games. Lions last won a playoff game in 1991.

Chargers 14, Jets 7— Chargers won five of their last six games; they play Oakland next week in what should be a weird game, given how popular the Raiders remain in the LA area. Bolts need a win and also Titans to lose and then either Buffalo or the Ravens to lose to make the playoffs. Under is 9-1 in Chargers’ last ten games.

Jets are 11-42 on 3rd down in last three games; they’re 2-8 in their last ten games. Not sure why Christian Hackenberg hasn’t played yet; its similar to the Davis Webb/Giants quandary.

Bears 20, Browns 3— Cleveland is 1-30 the last two years, 3-12 vs spread this year. Browns are -15 in turnovers their last six games. Does this mean Sam Darnold stays at USC? Sounds like he doesn’t want to live near Lake Erie.

Panthers 22, Buccaneers 19— Carolina hadn’t scored an offensive TD all day until they drove 59 yards for the game-winning score with 0:35 left— they’re in the playoffs now, but they can win the division if they win next week and the Saints lose at Tampa Bay. Carolina is +10 in turnovers in its last six games.

Bucs’ GM and coach were talking big on Hard Knocks this past summer; but now they’re 4-11 and you wonder if Jon Gruden wants to coach the Bucs again, will they hire him?

Saints 23, Falcons 13— New Orleans is in the playoffs after starting season 0-2; Atlanta can still make playoffs by beating Carolina next week- they won 34-31 in Seattle Nov 20, the game that gives them the tie-breaker over the Seahawks.

This was first time in five years these two divisional rivals split their season series; New Orleans has won seven home games in a row- if they win next week, they’ll get another home game in the first round of the playoffs.

Weird thing about handicapping football; 10 of last 13 Atlanta games stayed under the total. Last year, 12 of 16 Falcon games went over the total. Each season is a separate entity.

Redskins 27, Broncos 11— Denver has to make a move for a franchise QB this winter; they were 1-7 on road this year, 0-4 as road underdogs, with six road losses by 10+ points- they’re -16 in turnovers. Thats a nice way of saying they’re terrible.

Washington is 3-2 in its last five games, can finish .500 if they beat the Giants next week. Going to be lot of QB-related issues this winter; will Redskins keep Cousins? Will Giants get rid of Eli Manning? Who will the Giants hire to be coach and GM? Will Washington keep Jay Gruden?

Chiefs 29, Dolphins 13— Do yourself a favor and find the video of Andy Reid’s post-game press conference; he did it in full Santa Claus garb. It is tremendous.

Chiefs win the AFC West, are 32-15 the last three years- they’re in playoffs for 4th time in last five years, but they also have questions— will they trade Alex Smith to the Browns?

As for Miami, they paid Jay Cutler $10M to come in and go 6-9- they lost six of last eight games, went 2-6 on the road. Dolphins can ruin Buffalo’s season by beating the Bills next week.

Patriots 37, Bills 16— NFL should go to FOX TV’s Mike Pereira, ask him how much he wants to take over the league’s instant replay system and put him in charge of it- that would fix a lot of the indecisiveness that seems to plague the current system.

As for Bills’ coach Sean McDermott and other AFC East coaches, their job security is tied to how long Tom Brady decides to play, because as soon as #12 walks, the AFC East becomes a free-for-all. But if the Titans, Bills and Chargers all win next week, then Buffalo misses the playoffs in a tie-breaker with the Chargers, who beat them 54-24 when Nathan Peterman threw five INTs in a half in his first NFL start. Decisions like that are bad for a coach’s job security.

Home teams are 8-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season.

49ers 44, Jaguars 33— This was the first game in NFL history with a final score of 44-33; there are media members who already want Jimmy Garoppolo fitted for his gold Hall of Fame jacket. Garoppolo is 6-0 as an NFL starter and the 49ers will be a trendy pick to make the playoffs next year, but at this point, they’re passing tired horses.

Jacksonville clinched the AFC South when the Titans lost; Andrew Catalon on FOX was killing Blake Bortles in the third quarter of this game. Guy QB’s a 10-5 team and is getting crushed on TV. Four of last five Jacksonville games went over the total.

Cardinals 23, Giants 0— Arizona got its first shutout in 25 years, night after the Vikings got their first shutout in 24 years. If I was a Giants fan, I’d want to at least see Davis Webb play, to see if he has any ability, or any potential to at least bring back draft picks in a trade. Quarterbacks are valuable, I’m told.

Cardinals head to Seattle next week with a chance to finish .500; they’re an older team with an older coach— will Arians be back? Will Carson Palmer be back?

Seahawks 21, Cowboys 12— Dallas outgained Seattle 283-136, and lost by nine points. Brutal day for the Cowboys, which didn’t score a TD, then watched kicker Bailey miss two easy FG’s to get margin within a TD in 4th quarter. Last nine times Dallas had the ball, they turned ball over three times, kicked four FG’s, missed two other FG’s. Touchdowns win games.

Seattle needs the Falcons to lose at home to Carolina next week, and then to beat Arizona to make the playoffs. Seahawks have gained a TOTAL of 285 yards the last two weeks- their OL is terrible, but Russell Wilson’s big heart is keeping them alive.

If the playoffs started Christmas morning (they don’t), they would look like this:
AFC: Patriots-Steelers-Jaguars-Chiefs. Wild Cards: Ravens/Titans
NFC: Eagles-Vikings-Saints-Rams. Wild Cards: Panthers/Falcons

**Udog** · 12-25-2017, 10:52 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, December 25

Akron @ Davidson

Game 711-712
December 25, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
49.704
Davidson
61.818
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Davidson
by 12
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Davidson
by 9 1/2
148 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Davidson
(-9 1/2); Under

Princeton @ Hawaii

Game 713-714
December 25, 2017 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Princeton
58.322
Hawaii
54.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Princeton
by 4
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Princeton
by 1
134
Dunkel Pick:
Princeton
(-1); Over

USC @ New Mexico St

Game 715-716
December 25, 2017 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
63.212
New Mexico St
62.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 1
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 4 1/2
148 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(+4 1/2); Under

Middle Tennessee @ Miami-FL

Game 717-718
December 25, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Middle Tennessee
63.404
Miami-FL
66.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 3
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
136
Dunkel Pick:
Middle Tennessee
(+6); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, December 25

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AKRON (6 - 4) vs. DAVIDSON (4 - 6) - 12/25/2017, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PRINCETON (6 - 7) at HAWAII (8 - 3) - 12/25/2017, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PRINCETON is 78-51 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PRINCETON is 1-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 1-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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USC (8 - 4) vs. NEW MEXICO ST (11 - 2) - 12/25/2017, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIDDLE TENN ST (8 - 3) vs. MIAMI (10 - 1) - 12/25/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 139-106 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, December 25

Diamond Head Classic, Hawai’i- These 8 teams all had Sunday off
Akron-Davidson will fight like hell to avoid going 0-3 in Diamond Head Classic. Zips are 6-4 vs schedule #313; they’re 0-4 away from, with three of four losses by 10+ points. Akron lost by 31 to USC in their only top 100 game, a game that was tied early in 2nd half. Zips are experience team #323 with new coach- they’re turning ball over 21.4% of time. Davidson lot six of its last eight games; they have only 8 healthy scholarship players. Wildcats’ best win is over #245 Charlotte. A-14 favorites are 6-9 vs spread away from home; MAC underdogs are 24-20.

Princeton won four of its last five games; their last three games were all decided by either two points or in OT. Tigers are 6-7 vs schedule #64- they’re playing pace #336, and in their last five games, are shooting 41% on arc. Hawai’i won three of its last four games; they’re 2-3 vs teams in top 150, beating Utah Valley/Davidson—all three of their losses are by 13 points. Rainbows are shooting 26.1% on arc, 4th-worst in country, and turning ball over 20.7% of time. Ivy League favorites are 3-4 vs spread away from home; Big West underdogs are 30-20.

New Mexico State plays in WAC, doesn’t get on ESPN much; this is big for them. Aggies are 11-2 vs schedule #132- they’re #85 experience team that is 3-1 vs top 100 teams, losing at St Mary’s by 18- their last three wins are all vs top 100 teams (Illinois-Davidson-Miami). Aggies force turnovers 21.1% of time. USC scored 82+ points in its last six games; they’ve won four of last five games, are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with wins by 4-5 points over Vandy/Middle Tennessee. Pac-12 favorites are 6-13 vs spread away from home. Trojans are shooting 40% on the arc.

Middle Tennessee lost two of its last three games; five of their last six games were decided by six or less points. Blue Raiders split four top 100 games; they beat Vandy/Ole Miss, lost to USC by 5, to Auburn by 6. MTSU is #13 experience team; they’re another team that doesn’t get whole lot of national TV time. Miami lost its first game Saturday; they’re 10-1 vs schedule #276- their defensive eFG% is #2 in country. Hurricanes are #285 experience team. C-USA underdogs are 27-23 vs spread away from home; ACC favorites are 25-14.

NCAAB

Monday, December 25

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Trend Report
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AKRON @ DAVIDSON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games on the road
Akron is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Davidson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Davidson's last 8 games

PRINCETON @ HAWAII
Princeton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Princeton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

USC @ NEW MEXICO STATE
USC is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
USC is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
New Mexico State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

MIDDLE TENNESSEE @ MIAMI
Middle Tennessee is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Middle Tennessee's last 5 games
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

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Announcement

Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/25

Monday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 12/25

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