Announcement

**Udog** · 11-16-2017, 07:56 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 11 approaching……

— Tennessee is 7-15 vs spread in its last 22 games as a road underdog.

— Washington covered once in its last six games.

— Dolphins are 2-10-2 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— New England is 17-8 vs spread in its last 25 games.

— Philadelphia covered its last six games.

— Seattle is 3-7-1 vs spread in its last eleven games

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) UCLA had a news conference Wednesday, with the three geniuses who got caught stealing stuff from Chinese stores last week. Public relations spins at their finest. Kids read statements that were written for them, they were contrite, and it all went well enough.

How long is “indefinite”? When Duke really needed Grayson Allen a couple of years ago, his “indefinite suspension” was one whole game. One of these kids was expected to start, another to be a key guy off the bench. That shouldn’t matter, but fact of the matter is, it probably will.

I’m guessing the three players will be back Dec 19, when the Bruins host South Dakota. UCLA plays Kentucky on Dec 23, then Pac-12 plays the week after that. I’m guessing they’ll want all this BS behind them before conference plays begins.

12) Weasel agent Scott Boras was whining this week because teams like the Mets, Marlins plan on reducing payroll his winter. it does suck for the sport, but it sucks worse for an agent, who rakes in 3% of his client’s salary. Curious to see who Boras suckers into signing Eric Hosmer, the overpriced free agent 1B from Kansas City.

Also curious to see how many of the Marlins’ stars get traded this winter.

11) A’s traded 1B/3B Ryon Healy to the Mariners for a minor league SS and a rookie reliever; Healy figures to play 1B in Seattle. Emergence of Matt Olson in Oakland made Healy expendable.

10) Buffalo Bills will start rookie QB Nathan Peterman Sunday in Carson against the Chargers. Reading on the Interweb, Bills weren’t thrilled with how slowly previous starter Tyrod Taylor was going thru his progressions, causing him to miss some open receivers.

9) Only fifteen major league pitchers threw 200+ innings this past year; as recently as five years ago, 31 pitchers threw 200+ innings.

8) They broke ground on the Raiders’ new stadium in Las Vegas this week, a stadium that will house the Raiders and UNLV football. I’m saying UNLV moves up to the Big X once they get their fancy new domed stadium, probably with BYU joining them.

7) Davidson Wildcats are 39-86 outside the arc in their first two games; they were an astounding 26-53 on 3-pointers in their opener vs Charleston Southern. Wildcats scored 110-108 points in their first two games; curious to see if they keep playing this fast as their competition improves, and then when conference play starts.

6) In the NFL, forcing an opponent to go 3/out improves your field position and keeps other team’s defense on field longer- here are teams who’ve forced highest %age of 3/outs:
Steelers 38.3%, Cardinals 37.5%, Saints 37.4%, Seahawks 37.1%,

Teams who have forced the lowest %age of 3/outs:
Packers 21.8%, Giants 23.2%, Patriots/Chiefs 24.4%

5) Likewise, avoiding 3/outs on offense takes stress off your defense, improves field position:
Teams with lowest %age of 3/outs:
Steelers 21.3%, Patriots 21.7%, Saints 23.0%, Rams 23.5%

Teams who’ve gone 3/out the most this season:
Colts 41.6%, Titans 39.8%, Raiders 35.9%, Jets 35.7%

4) Seton Hall 84, Indiana 68— Pirates shot 59% inside arc, 9-17 outside arc. Indiana is off to a rough start, also losing to Indiana State at home.

3) Maryland 79, Butler 65— Bulldogs are on their 4th head coach in six seasons, which is weird for a Big East team that usually does well- they’re 38-34 in Big East conference games.

2) Creighton 92, Northwestern 88— If you like good defense, you would’ve switched channels to a different game, but this was entertaining. Bluejays push ball very well. Wildcats’ bench was 0-6 from floor in this game, a red flag.

1) I flip back and forth between college/NBA games a lot and the difference in skill level is drastic; you watch NBA Summer League games in July and you see guys who were really good college players who wind up playing in Europe or the G-League. It is tough to make an NBA roster.

Too many kids leave college for the pros too soon— work on your games, so when you leave for the NBA, you’re ready.

**Udog** · 11-16-2017, 08:59 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 16

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GOLDEN STATE (11 - 3) at BOSTON (13 - 2) - 11/16/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (11 - 4) at PHOENIX (5 - 10) - 11/16/2017, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 16

Celtics won their last 13 games after an 0-2 start; they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Golden State won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); three of their last four games stayed under. Warriors are 4-2 vs spread as a road favorite. Road team won last five Warrior-Celtic games; Golden State won its last four visits to Boston, by 20-5-5-16 points. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Mike D’Antoni returns to Phoenix with his 11-4 Rockets, who are 7-1 on road, 4-2 as a road favorite. Houston won six of its last seven games- over is 6-2 in their last eight. Houston won six of last seven series games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six visits to the desert. Over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Phoenix lost six of its last seven games; they’re 3-3 as a home underdog. Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

NBA

Thursday, November 16

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Trend Report
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GOLDEN STATE @ BOSTON
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Golden State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

HOUSTON @ PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing at home against Houston

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**Udog** · 11-16-2017, 12:12 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 16

Golden State @ Boston

Game 501-502
November 16, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
137.671
Boston
122.294
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 15 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-7 1/2); Over

Houston @ Phoenix

Game 501-502
November 16, 2017 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
127.787
Phoenix
109.853
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 18
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 11 1/2
228 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-11 1/2); Under

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/16

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 11/16

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