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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 15
Day Games
Oklahoma is 4-11 in its last 15 games after starting season 14-2; they haven’t played since Wednesday. Sooners are #303 experience team with no senior starters. In their last three games, Oklahoma is 22-82 (26.8%) behind the arc. Rhode Island split its last eight games; they lost A-14 final on Sunday. Rams start four seniors; they’re 4-6 vs top 100 teams. URI forces turnovers 22.8% of time (#5). Over last five years, favorites are 12-8 vs spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games. Over last three years, Big X teams are 12-2 SU vs A-14 teams, 9-4 vs spread.
Tennessee is in NCAAs for 1st time since 2014; Barnes is in for 14th time in last 17 years, but first time since ’15- he is 9-4 in his last 13 1st-round games. Vols played SEC title game Sunday, now has early tip time on Thursday; pretty quick turnaround. Tennessee is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 10+. Wright State coach Nagy was 1-2 vs spread in 1st-round when he was at South Dakota St. Raiders finished 2nd in Horizon; their last game was March 6. Horizon League reps are 2-4 vs spread in 1st-round games the last six years.
Gonzaga will have big crowd support in this game in Boise; Zags won their last nine 1st-round games (5-4 vs spread). Gonzaga is #239 experience team that won its last 14 games; they lost national title game 71-65 LY, re-tooled, are 30-4 this year- they’re 8-4 vs top 100 teams, but aren’t great defending arc (#210 in 3-pt %age). NC-Greensboro lost by 12 to Virginia, by 6 to Wake Forest in its high-profile games; they get 40% of their points from arc (35.5% on 3’s). SoCon teams lost last nine 1st-round games, going 1-3 vs spread last four years.
Ivy League teams covered seven of last eight 1st-round games, going 3-2 SU in last five, with all five decided by 6 or fewer points, but this is first time since ’89 that Ivy League rep is a 16-seed. Penn lost 90-62 to Villanova, 60-51 to Temple in its top 100 games this year; Quakers are #135 experience team. Kansas is 3-5-1 vs spread in last one 1st-round games; Jayhawks are 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with five wins by 30+ points. Kansas makes 40.3% on arc; they won eight of last nine games. Penn opponents shot only 29.6% on arc this season.
Duke is 2-4 vs spread in its last six first round games; they’re 8-0 vs teams ranked lower than #100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Blue Devils are 2nd-least experienced team in country but they do have senior G in Allen. Iona is #26 experience team that is in NCAAs for third year in row- they lost 1st round games 93-77 (Oregon), 94-81 (Iowa St) last two years. Gaels finished 4th in MAAC this year; they lost 71-62 to Syracuse of ACC. Iona shoots 38.8% on arc. Over last six years, #2 seeds are 12-11-1 against the spread in 1st round games.
Last six years, ACC teams are 13-25 vs spread in 1st-round games. Loyola is in NCAAs for first time since 1985; Ramblers won at Florida- they lost 87-53 in Boise, 73-56 in Milwaukee in non-MVC games (9-2). MVC teams won last eight 1st-round games; 6 of 8 wins were Wichita/Creighton, who have moved on. Miami won five of last six 1st-round games; they’re experience team #307, starting two frosh and a soph. Miami is 11-1 outside ACC (#283 NC sked), losing to New Mexico St in Diamond Head. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.
South Dakota State is in NCAA’s for 5th time in seven years, going 2-2 vs spread in previous four 1st-round games. Jackrabbits are #49 experience team that turns ball over least of any team in country (13.8%)- they beat Big 14’s Iowa 80-72 in November. Ohio State is 24-8 but lost three of last five games; Holtmann won/covered his three 1st-round tourney games while at Butler. Buckeyes are 9-4 outside Big 14, with all four losses to top 30 teams. Summit teams are 1-14 SU in this round, 5-4 vs spread the last nine years, covering only two times they were a #12-seed.
Seton Hall is #55 experience team that lost six of last 10 games; three of their last four games were decided either by 1 point or in OT. Pirates are 10-2 outside ACC, losing to Louisville of ACC by a hoop. NC State is 5-4 in its last nine games; they start frosh/soph guards- they’re #179 experience team. State is in NCAAs for first time since ’15; Keatts is in for 3rd year in row, losing but covering his 1st-round game last two years for UNCW. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-12 SU vs ACC teams. Last five years, favorites are 11-8 vs spread in #8-9 seed games.
Night Games
Last nine years, 16-seeds who won their play-in game are 7-11 vs spread in their next game, vs a #1-seed. Radford played only two guys more than 26:00 Tuesday, in their 8th straight win; Highlanders are 0-4 vs top 100 games, losing by 10-12-27-15 points. Villanova won its last five games; they’re 13-0 outside the Big East, Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South; Wildcats are 11-0 vs teams outside top 100; three of their last six games went to OT. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.
Kentucky is least experienced team in country, starting four freshman, one soph; Wildcats won seven of last eight games- they’re 10-2 outside the SEC (NC sked #43), 7-9 vs top 50 teams, 4-7 vs spread in its last 11 first round games. Davidson won 8 of its last 9 games; they’re 5-6 outside A-14, 2-4 vs top 50 teams. Wildcats shoot 39.1% on arc, have #11 eFG% in country. Last three years, A-14 teams are 10-7–1 vs spread when getting points from an SEC squad. Last five years, A-14 teams are 7-5 vs spread when getting points in this round.
Houston is in NCAAs for first time since ’10; Cougars won 10 of last 12 games- they’re #48 experience team that is 10-2 outside AAC (#250 NC sked), 10-4 vs top 100 teams- they’ve got #9 eFG% defense in country. San Diego State won last nine games after PG Kell got healthy; Aztecs are 3-2 vs top 50 teams, 7-3 outside Mountain West- they’re in NCAA’s for first time since ’15, won last three first-round games. Last three years, AAC teams are 3-5 SU in this round, 2-3 vs spread when favored. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.
Texas Tech lost five of its last seven games; they had some players banged-up but they’re back now. Tech is 11-1 outside tough Big X, beating Abilene Christian of Southland 74-47 back in December. Red Raiders are 9-1 vs teams not ranked in top 100, with all nine wins by 18+ points. SF Austin is in tournament for 4th time in five years; they upset VCU, West Virginia in two of three 1st round games, lost other game by 7. Lumberjacks won 10 of last 11 games; they played three SEC teams this year (1-2), with three games decided by total of seven points.
Alabama lost six of last eight games, finished T9 in SEC, but upset Auburn in SEC tourney; they’re #348 experience team, 8-4 outside SEC (#84 NC sked). Crimson Tide shoots 32.4% on arc- their frosh PG Sexton is their best player. Virginia Tech is #156 experience team that finished 7th in ACC; Hokies beat Ole Miss by 3, lost by 7 at Kentucky in two SEC games. Bama is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012; Tech lost by 10 to Wisconsin LY, their first NCAA game in decade. Last three years, ACC teams are 32-23 SU vs SEC, 17-12 vs spread when favored.
Arizona won Pac-12 tourney last week, winning by 16-11ot-14 points; last two times Arizona won Pac-12 tourney, Wildcats won first NCAA tourney game by 21-18 points (1-0-1 vs spread)- Wildcats are 2-4-1 vs spread overall in last seven first round games. Arizona won seven of its last eight games; three of their last seven went to OT. Buffalo won 19 of its last 22 games; they’re 0-5 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 6-14-11-7-16 points. Bulls are in 3rd NCAA in four years, losing last two by 6-7 points. MAC teams are 6-3 vs spread in last nine NCAAs.
Big Sky teams haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2006; they’re 1-5-1 vs spread in first round last seven years. Montana is in for first time in five years; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five NCAA first round games. Griz won 19 of last 21 games; they’re 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-16-3-3 points- they lost 70-57 to Big 14’s Penn State. Michigan won its last four first round game (2-2 vs spread); they’ve won nine games in row, have been off for 10 days since winning Big 14 tourney. Wolverines are #202 experience team; they’re 18-2 vs teams outside top 50.
#11-seeds who win the play-in games are 8-6 vs spread in their next game. St Bonaventure finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they’re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G’s- they won 14 of last 15 games, are 11-2 outside A-14, 8-4 vs top 100 teams. Florida covered six of its last eight first round games; they’ve made Elite 8 in their last five NCAA’s. Gators make 37.5% of their 3’s; they take lot of them. Florida is 8-4 outside the SEC (#54 NC sked). Bonnies played four kids 35:00+ in their win over UCLA- they survived their best player Adams going 2-16 from floor. Florida beat St. Bonaventure 73-66 in November ’16.
Friday’s games
Day Games
Providence lost in Big East final Saturday; all three tournament games went to OT. Friars are #117 experience team, starting three seniors- they lost five of last six first round games in this tournament. Providence is 7-7 in last 14 games overall; they’re 9-4 outside Big East (#191 NC sked), 6-9 vs top 50 teams. Texas A&M is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re 11-1 outside SEC (NC sked #38) but were only 9-10 inside SEC. they’re #233 experience team. Over the last five years, favorites are 12-8 against the spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games.
Purdue won 15 of last 17 first round games, covering four of last six; Boilermakers start four seniors, are #52 experience team- they make 42% of their 3’s. Purdue is 13-2 outside Big 14 (#145 NC sked); they’re 12-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Cal State-Fullerton won eight of last ten games; they’ve got good guards, are #3 team in country in %age of their points scored on foul line. Titans are #235 experience team- they’re 5-5 outside Big West (#80 NC sked); they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams. Big West teams are 2-5 vs spread in this round the last seven years.
Dan D’Antoni is Marshall’s coach; his team plays fast (#6 pace), just like the Rockets. Marshall won 10 of its last 12 games; they’re #260 experience team that is 9-4 outside C-USA (NC sked #334). Thundering Herd makes 35.6% of its 3’s; 46% of their shots are 3’s. C-USA teams won their 1st round game four of last five years. Wichita State is 16-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100; Shockers are #13 experience team, but teams shoot 36.3% on arc against them (#247). Wichita’s last six wins are all by 8 or fewer points- they won last five first round games.
Cincinnati won its last seven games; they force turnovers 22.3% of time, have #2 eFG% defense in country. Bearcats are 11-2 outside AAC, vs NC schedule #295- they’re 11-4 vs top 100 teams. Cincy plays slow (#322 pace). Georgia State is #101 experience team; they make 39.1% of their 3’s, take lot of them. Panthers have great PG in Simonds, but have thin bench (#342 in bench minutes played); they beat Tulane of AAC 70-59 back in November. Last four years, #2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in 1st round games. Sun Belt teams covered three of last four 1st round games.
North Carolina split its last six games overall, went 11-2 vs #15 non-league schedule; they won their last 15 first round games, but are 5-7-1 vs spread in last 13. Tar Heels rebound 38.4% of their own misses, #2 in country; they’re 7-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Lipscomb is in NCAAs for first time; they won 12 of last 13 games, are 8-5 vs NC schedule #30, but are 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 22-23-10-32 points. Bisons get 22.3% of their points on foul line (#27). Atlantic Sun teams are 3-2 vs spread in first round the last five years.
Arkansas is #43 experience team that is 10-2 outside SEC (#135 NC sked), 6-8 vs top 50 teams; Razorbacks are in NCAAs for 3rd time in last four years- they won their last three first round games. Hogs are 8-3 in last 11 games; they start three seniors. Butler is #204 experience team that lost six of last nine games, with two OT losses; Bulldogs are 10-3 outside Big East (NC sked #157), 4-10 vs top 50 teams. Butler turns ball only 15.7% of time (#28); Arkansas forces TO’s 19.4% of time. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-7 vs SEC opponents.
West Virginia forces turnovers 23.4% of time; they’re #196 experience team that is 11-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50- they’re 11-1 outside Big X (#297 NC sked). Mountaineers won five of last seven games; they start pair of senior guards, are 3-4 vs spread in last seven 1st round games. Murray State is in NCAAs for first time in six years; they lost by 5 to Middle Tennessee, by 4 to Auburn in high-profile non-league games. Racers won their last 13 games, are #110 experience team- their PG Stark is a senior, but Murray isn’t deep (#304 in bench minutes).
Nevada has injury issues; PG Drew tore his achilles, Caroline is playing thru a broken finger, Martin is playing thru foot issues. Wolf Pack lost by 11 to Iowa St of Big X in first round LY; they lost twice to San Diego State in last two weeks, were down 30 at the half in their last game, but Musselman is an NBA coach and Nevada gets 35% of its point behind arc, which negates Texas shot blocker Bamba. Longhorns are #336 experience team with depth issues; they’re 4-6 in last 10 games. Last four years, Mountain West teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round.
Night Games
Creighton star Foster played his first two years of college ball at Kansas State, which makes this 8-9 game more interesting. Bluejays lost six of last nine games; they’re 6-7 since 6-9 Krampelj was lost for year. Creighton is #185 experience team that is 10-2 outside Big East (NC sked #291), but 4-7 vs top 50 teams- they shoot 37.6% on arc and take lot of them. K-State is #242 experience team that is 7-10 vs top 50 teams, 10-2 outside Big X (#321 NC sked). Wildcats start three sophs, two juniors. Last three years, Big X teams are 6-5 when playing Big East teams.
Bucknell (+13) lost 86-80 to West Virginia in 1st round LY, in a 4-13 game. Bison are #82 team in experience, starting three seniors- they suspended backup F Moore for this game; he didn’t play in Patriot tourney. Michigan State won only one tourney game last two years; Spartans are #281 experience team, starting four sophs and a freshman. Sparty opponents are shooting 38.4% inside arc this season. MSU makes 41.3% of its 3-pointers. Patriot League teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round last five years; Bucknell is 3-2 vs spread in this round.
Texas Southern started season 0-13 in a cash grab; son of school’s AD is on this team, which lost games by 7 at Clemson, 6 at Oregon, 6 at Wyoming- they also got smoked in several games, but they’ve won eight games in row. they shouldn’t be in awe; 11 of their 14 non-league opponents are top 120 teams. Xavier won 13 of last 15 games; they’re #123 experience team that plays pace #61. musketeers are 12-1 outside Big East; they’re 10-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 19+ points. SWAC teams covered three of last four games in this round.
Since 2009, CAA teams are 9-2 vs spread in first round games; Charleston is #60 experience team that won 14 of its last 15 games. Cougars took trip to Alaska in November, went 3-2 in OT games this year, are #1 team in country in Minutes Continuity, a KenPom stat that measures stability of a roster. Auburn lost four of last six games after starting season 23-3; Tigers are in NCAA for first time since 2003- they’re #308 experience team. None of eight guys in Auburn’s rotation are seniors. Charleston wants a slower pace (#323) than Auburn (#21) does.
UMBC’s coach is Ryan Odom, whose dad Dave was once an assistant at Virginia. Retrievers are in NCAAs for first time in 10 years; they’re #99 experience team that makes 38.2% of its 3’s, and they take lot of them. UMBC has two senior G’s; they won 8 of last 9 games, winning at Vermont in America East final, after having lost 23 in row to UVM. Virginia won its last eight games, is #162 experience team that plays pace #351, slowest in country. Cavaliers are 9-0 vs teams raked outside top 100. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.
Missouri senior F Barnett (DUI) is suspended for this game, didn’t travel with team; freshman star Porter plays his 2nd game of season after sitting out whole year with back injury- he took 17 shots in 23:00 in his debut in 62-60 loss to Georgia in SEC tourney. Tigers lost four of last six games; they’re likely to start three freshmen in first NCAA game in five years. Florida State won 83-66 at Florida of SEC; they’re 11-1 outside ACC, but vs NC sked #331. Seminoles are 4-6 in last ten games- they play pace #1, are 3-0 in OT games this season.
When he was coach at Pitt, Jamie Dixon won his last five games with Syracuse. Syracuse played all five starters 34:00+ in Wednesday’s win over Arizona St; two guys played whole 40:00- their bench plays least minutes in country. Orange made Final Four as 10-seed two years ago; they can’t be dismissed here- their trip to Detroit is a short one. Syracuse is #309 experience team; they’re 4-5 in last nine games. TCU is #74 experience team that is 12-0 outside Big X (NC sked #178); Frogs split their last 10 games- they shoot 40% on arc.
New Mexico State is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years under three head coaches; Aggies lost last nine 1st round games (3-6 vs spread); their last NCAA win was in 1993. State is experience team #76 that starts three seniors- they beat Miami 63-54 in Hawai’i so doubtful they’ll be awed by an ACC opponent. Clemson is in NCAA’s for first time in seven years; Tigers went 7-6 after losing big guy Grantham for year- they’re 15-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50. Clemson is #58 experience team; they play pace #296, Aggies play pace #173.
Other tournaments
Austin Peay is 8-4 in its last dozen games; they’re 3-7 outside OVC, beating Sun Belt’s Troy by hoop Dec 19. Governors force turnovers 22.2% of time (#12). UL-Monroe won seven of last ten games; they’re 4-5 outside Sun Belt, losing by 19 at Jacksonville State of OVC Dec 9. ULM is #68 experience team that plays pace #284- they get 40.9% of their points outside the arc.
Wofford got a bye in this tournament; they haven’t played in 12 days; Terriers are 6-4 outside SoCon, with a win in Chapel Hill over the Tar Heels. Wofford is #299 experience team that has made 39.9% of its 3’s (#18). Central Michigan won 94-89 in Ft Wayne Monday, using three starters 33:00+. Chippewas are 9-2 outside MAC, but their NC schedule is ranked #340.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 15
Day Games
Oklahoma is 4-11 in its last 15 games after starting season 14-2; they haven’t played since Wednesday. Sooners are #303 experience team with no senior starters. In their last three games, Oklahoma is 22-82 (26.8%) behind the arc. Rhode Island split its last eight games; they lost A-14 final on Sunday. Rams start four seniors; they’re 4-6 vs top 100 teams. URI forces turnovers 22.8% of time (#5). Over last five years, favorites are 12-8 vs spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games. Over last three years, Big X teams are 12-2 SU vs A-14 teams, 9-4 vs spread.
Tennessee is in NCAAs for 1st time since 2014; Barnes is in for 14th time in last 17 years, but first time since ’15- he is 9-4 in his last 13 1st-round games. Vols played SEC title game Sunday, now has early tip time on Thursday; pretty quick turnaround. Tennessee is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 10+. Wright State coach Nagy was 1-2 vs spread in 1st-round when he was at South Dakota St. Raiders finished 2nd in Horizon; their last game was March 6. Horizon League reps are 2-4 vs spread in 1st-round games the last six years.
Gonzaga will have big crowd support in this game in Boise; Zags won their last nine 1st-round games (5-4 vs spread). Gonzaga is #239 experience team that won its last 14 games; they lost national title game 71-65 LY, re-tooled, are 30-4 this year- they’re 8-4 vs top 100 teams, but aren’t great defending arc (#210 in 3-pt %age). NC-Greensboro lost by 12 to Virginia, by 6 to Wake Forest in its high-profile games; they get 40% of their points from arc (35.5% on 3’s). SoCon teams lost last nine 1st-round games, going 1-3 vs spread last four years.
Ivy League teams covered seven of last eight 1st-round games, going 3-2 SU in last five, with all five decided by 6 or fewer points, but this is first time since ’89 that Ivy League rep is a 16-seed. Penn lost 90-62 to Villanova, 60-51 to Temple in its top 100 games this year; Quakers are #135 experience team. Kansas is 3-5-1 vs spread in last one 1st-round games; Jayhawks are 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with five wins by 30+ points. Kansas makes 40.3% on arc; they won eight of last nine games. Penn opponents shot only 29.6% on arc this season.
Duke is 2-4 vs spread in its last six first round games; they’re 8-0 vs teams ranked lower than #100, with seven wins by 17+ points. Blue Devils are 2nd-least experienced team in country but they do have senior G in Allen. Iona is #26 experience team that is in NCAAs for third year in row- they lost 1st round games 93-77 (Oregon), 94-81 (Iowa St) last two years. Gaels finished 4th in MAAC this year; they lost 71-62 to Syracuse of ACC. Iona shoots 38.8% on arc. Over last six years, #2 seeds are 12-11-1 against the spread in 1st round games.
Last six years, ACC teams are 13-25 vs spread in 1st-round games. Loyola is in NCAAs for first time since 1985; Ramblers won at Florida- they lost 87-53 in Boise, 73-56 in Milwaukee in non-MVC games (9-2). MVC teams won last eight 1st-round games; 6 of 8 wins were Wichita/Creighton, who have moved on. Miami won five of last six 1st-round games; they’re experience team #307, starting two frosh and a soph. Miami is 11-1 outside ACC (#283 NC sked), losing to New Mexico St in Diamond Head. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.
South Dakota State is in NCAA’s for 5th time in seven years, going 2-2 vs spread in previous four 1st-round games. Jackrabbits are #49 experience team that turns ball over least of any team in country (13.8%)- they beat Big 14’s Iowa 80-72 in November. Ohio State is 24-8 but lost three of last five games; Holtmann won/covered his three 1st-round tourney games while at Butler. Buckeyes are 9-4 outside Big 14, with all four losses to top 30 teams. Summit teams are 1-14 SU in this round, 5-4 vs spread the last nine years, covering only two times they were a #12-seed.
Seton Hall is #55 experience team that lost six of last 10 games; three of their last four games were decided either by 1 point or in OT. Pirates are 10-2 outside ACC, losing to Louisville of ACC by a hoop. NC State is 5-4 in its last nine games; they start frosh/soph guards- they’re #179 experience team. State is in NCAAs for first time since ’15; Keatts is in for 3rd year in row, losing but covering his 1st-round game last two years for UNCW. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-12 SU vs ACC teams. Last five years, favorites are 11-8 vs spread in #8-9 seed games.
Night Games
Last nine years, 16-seeds who won their play-in game are 7-11 vs spread in their next game, vs a #1-seed. Radford played only two guys more than 26:00 Tuesday, in their 8th straight win; Highlanders are 0-4 vs top 100 games, losing by 10-12-27-15 points. Villanova won its last five games; they’re 13-0 outside the Big East, Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South; Wildcats are 11-0 vs teams outside top 100; three of their last six games went to OT. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.
Kentucky is least experienced team in country, starting four freshman, one soph; Wildcats won seven of last eight games- they’re 10-2 outside the SEC (NC sked #43), 7-9 vs top 50 teams, 4-7 vs spread in its last 11 first round games. Davidson won 8 of its last 9 games; they’re 5-6 outside A-14, 2-4 vs top 50 teams. Wildcats shoot 39.1% on arc, have #11 eFG% in country. Last three years, A-14 teams are 10-7–1 vs spread when getting points from an SEC squad. Last five years, A-14 teams are 7-5 vs spread when getting points in this round.
Houston is in NCAAs for first time since ’10; Cougars won 10 of last 12 games- they’re #48 experience team that is 10-2 outside AAC (#250 NC sked), 10-4 vs top 100 teams- they’ve got #9 eFG% defense in country. San Diego State won last nine games after PG Kell got healthy; Aztecs are 3-2 vs top 50 teams, 7-3 outside Mountain West- they’re in NCAA’s for first time since ’15, won last three first-round games. Last three years, AAC teams are 3-5 SU in this round, 2-3 vs spread when favored. Last 4 years, dogs are 9-7 vs spread in #6-11 seed games.
Texas Tech lost five of its last seven games; they had some players banged-up but they’re back now. Tech is 11-1 outside tough Big X, beating Abilene Christian of Southland 74-47 back in December. Red Raiders are 9-1 vs teams not ranked in top 100, with all nine wins by 18+ points. SF Austin is in tournament for 4th time in five years; they upset VCU, West Virginia in two of three 1st round games, lost other game by 7. Lumberjacks won 10 of last 11 games; they played three SEC teams this year (1-2), with three games decided by total of seven points.
Alabama lost six of last eight games, finished T9 in SEC, but upset Auburn in SEC tourney; they’re #348 experience team, 8-4 outside SEC (#84 NC sked). Crimson Tide shoots 32.4% on arc- their frosh PG Sexton is their best player. Virginia Tech is #156 experience team that finished 7th in ACC; Hokies beat Ole Miss by 3, lost by 7 at Kentucky in two SEC games. Bama is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012; Tech lost by 10 to Wisconsin LY, their first NCAA game in decade. Last three years, ACC teams are 32-23 SU vs SEC, 17-12 vs spread when favored.
Arizona won Pac-12 tourney last week, winning by 16-11ot-14 points; last two times Arizona won Pac-12 tourney, Wildcats won first NCAA tourney game by 21-18 points (1-0-1 vs spread)- Wildcats are 2-4-1 vs spread overall in last seven first round games. Arizona won seven of its last eight games; three of their last seven went to OT. Buffalo won 19 of its last 22 games; they’re 0-5 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 6-14-11-7-16 points. Bulls are in 3rd NCAA in four years, losing last two by 6-7 points. MAC teams are 6-3 vs spread in last nine NCAAs.
Big Sky teams haven’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2006; they’re 1-5-1 vs spread in first round last seven years. Montana is in for first time in five years; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five NCAA first round games. Griz won 19 of last 21 games; they’re 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-16-3-3 points- they lost 70-57 to Big 14’s Penn State. Michigan won its last four first round game (2-2 vs spread); they’ve won nine games in row, have been off for 10 days since winning Big 14 tourney. Wolverines are #202 experience team; they’re 18-2 vs teams outside top 50.
#11-seeds who win the play-in games are 8-6 vs spread in their next game. St Bonaventure finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they’re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G’s- they won 14 of last 15 games, are 11-2 outside A-14, 8-4 vs top 100 teams. Florida covered six of its last eight first round games; they’ve made Elite 8 in their last five NCAA’s. Gators make 37.5% of their 3’s; they take lot of them. Florida is 8-4 outside the SEC (#54 NC sked). Bonnies played four kids 35:00+ in their win over UCLA- they survived their best player Adams going 2-16 from floor. Florida beat St. Bonaventure 73-66 in November ’16.
Friday’s games
Day Games
Providence lost in Big East final Saturday; all three tournament games went to OT. Friars are #117 experience team, starting three seniors- they lost five of last six first round games in this tournament. Providence is 7-7 in last 14 games overall; they’re 9-4 outside Big East (#191 NC sked), 6-9 vs top 50 teams. Texas A&M is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re 11-1 outside SEC (NC sked #38) but were only 9-10 inside SEC. they’re #233 experience team. Over the last five years, favorites are 12-8 against the spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games.
Purdue won 15 of last 17 first round games, covering four of last six; Boilermakers start four seniors, are #52 experience team- they make 42% of their 3’s. Purdue is 13-2 outside Big 14 (#145 NC sked); they’re 12-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Cal State-Fullerton won eight of last ten games; they’ve got good guards, are #3 team in country in %age of their points scored on foul line. Titans are #235 experience team- they’re 5-5 outside Big West (#80 NC sked); they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams. Big West teams are 2-5 vs spread in this round the last seven years.
Dan D’Antoni is Marshall’s coach; his team plays fast (#6 pace), just like the Rockets. Marshall won 10 of its last 12 games; they’re #260 experience team that is 9-4 outside C-USA (NC sked #334). Thundering Herd makes 35.6% of its 3’s; 46% of their shots are 3’s. C-USA teams won their 1st round game four of last five years. Wichita State is 16-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100; Shockers are #13 experience team, but teams shoot 36.3% on arc against them (#247). Wichita’s last six wins are all by 8 or fewer points- they won last five first round games.
Cincinnati won its last seven games; they force turnovers 22.3% of time, have #2 eFG% defense in country. Bearcats are 11-2 outside AAC, vs NC schedule #295- they’re 11-4 vs top 100 teams. Cincy plays slow (#322 pace). Georgia State is #101 experience team; they make 39.1% of their 3’s, take lot of them. Panthers have great PG in Simonds, but have thin bench (#342 in bench minutes played); they beat Tulane of AAC 70-59 back in November. Last four years, #2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in 1st round games. Sun Belt teams covered three of last four 1st round games.
North Carolina split its last six games overall, went 11-2 vs #15 non-league schedule; they won their last 15 first round games, but are 5-7-1 vs spread in last 13. Tar Heels rebound 38.4% of their own misses, #2 in country; they’re 7-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Lipscomb is in NCAAs for first time; they won 12 of last 13 games, are 8-5 vs NC schedule #30, but are 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 22-23-10-32 points. Bisons get 22.3% of their points on foul line (#27). Atlantic Sun teams are 3-2 vs spread in first round the last five years.
Arkansas is #43 experience team that is 10-2 outside SEC (#135 NC sked), 6-8 vs top 50 teams; Razorbacks are in NCAAs for 3rd time in last four years- they won their last three first round games. Hogs are 8-3 in last 11 games; they start three seniors. Butler is #204 experience team that lost six of last nine games, with two OT losses; Bulldogs are 10-3 outside Big East (NC sked #157), 4-10 vs top 50 teams. Butler turns ball only 15.7% of time (#28); Arkansas forces TO’s 19.4% of time. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-7 vs SEC opponents.
West Virginia forces turnovers 23.4% of time; they’re #196 experience team that is 11-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50- they’re 11-1 outside Big X (#297 NC sked). Mountaineers won five of last seven games; they start pair of senior guards, are 3-4 vs spread in last seven 1st round games. Murray State is in NCAAs for first time in six years; they lost by 5 to Middle Tennessee, by 4 to Auburn in high-profile non-league games. Racers won their last 13 games, are #110 experience team- their PG Stark is a senior, but Murray isn’t deep (#304 in bench minutes).
Nevada has injury issues; PG Drew tore his achilles, Caroline is playing thru a broken finger, Martin is playing thru foot issues. Wolf Pack lost by 11 to Iowa St of Big X in first round LY; they lost twice to San Diego State in last two weeks, were down 30 at the half in their last game, but Musselman is an NBA coach and Nevada gets 35% of its point behind arc, which negates Texas shot blocker Bamba. Longhorns are #336 experience team with depth issues; they’re 4-6 in last 10 games. Last four years, Mountain West teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round.
Night Games
Creighton star Foster played his first two years of college ball at Kansas State, which makes this 8-9 game more interesting. Bluejays lost six of last nine games; they’re 6-7 since 6-9 Krampelj was lost for year. Creighton is #185 experience team that is 10-2 outside Big East (NC sked #291), but 4-7 vs top 50 teams- they shoot 37.6% on arc and take lot of them. K-State is #242 experience team that is 7-10 vs top 50 teams, 10-2 outside Big X (#321 NC sked). Wildcats start three sophs, two juniors. Last three years, Big X teams are 6-5 when playing Big East teams.
Bucknell (+13) lost 86-80 to West Virginia in 1st round LY, in a 4-13 game. Bison are #82 team in experience, starting three seniors- they suspended backup F Moore for this game; he didn’t play in Patriot tourney. Michigan State won only one tourney game last two years; Spartans are #281 experience team, starting four sophs and a freshman. Sparty opponents are shooting 38.4% inside arc this season. MSU makes 41.3% of its 3-pointers. Patriot League teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round last five years; Bucknell is 3-2 vs spread in this round.
Texas Southern started season 0-13 in a cash grab; son of school’s AD is on this team, which lost games by 7 at Clemson, 6 at Oregon, 6 at Wyoming- they also got smoked in several games, but they’ve won eight games in row. they shouldn’t be in awe; 11 of their 14 non-league opponents are top 120 teams. Xavier won 13 of last 15 games; they’re #123 experience team that plays pace #61. musketeers are 12-1 outside Big East; they’re 10-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 19+ points. SWAC teams covered three of last four games in this round.
Since 2009, CAA teams are 9-2 vs spread in first round games; Charleston is #60 experience team that won 14 of its last 15 games. Cougars took trip to Alaska in November, went 3-2 in OT games this year, are #1 team in country in Minutes Continuity, a KenPom stat that measures stability of a roster. Auburn lost four of last six games after starting season 23-3; Tigers are in NCAA for first time since 2003- they’re #308 experience team. None of eight guys in Auburn’s rotation are seniors. Charleston wants a slower pace (#323) than Auburn (#21) does.
UMBC’s coach is Ryan Odom, whose dad Dave was once an assistant at Virginia. Retrievers are in NCAAs for first time in 10 years; they’re #99 experience team that makes 38.2% of its 3’s, and they take lot of them. UMBC has two senior G’s; they won 8 of last 9 games, winning at Vermont in America East final, after having lost 23 in row to UVM. Virginia won its last eight games, is #162 experience team that plays pace #351, slowest in country. Cavaliers are 9-0 vs teams raked outside top 100. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.
Missouri senior F Barnett (DUI) is suspended for this game, didn’t travel with team; freshman star Porter plays his 2nd game of season after sitting out whole year with back injury- he took 17 shots in 23:00 in his debut in 62-60 loss to Georgia in SEC tourney. Tigers lost four of last six games; they’re likely to start three freshmen in first NCAA game in five years. Florida State won 83-66 at Florida of SEC; they’re 11-1 outside ACC, but vs NC sked #331. Seminoles are 4-6 in last ten games- they play pace #1, are 3-0 in OT games this season.
When he was coach at Pitt, Jamie Dixon won his last five games with Syracuse. Syracuse played all five starters 34:00+ in Wednesday’s win over Arizona St; two guys played whole 40:00- their bench plays least minutes in country. Orange made Final Four as 10-seed two years ago; they can’t be dismissed here- their trip to Detroit is a short one. Syracuse is #309 experience team; they’re 4-5 in last nine games. TCU is #74 experience team that is 12-0 outside Big X (NC sked #178); Frogs split their last 10 games- they shoot 40% on arc.
New Mexico State is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years under three head coaches; Aggies lost last nine 1st round games (3-6 vs spread); their last NCAA win was in 1993. State is experience team #76 that starts three seniors- they beat Miami 63-54 in Hawai’i so doubtful they’ll be awed by an ACC opponent. Clemson is in NCAA’s for first time in seven years; Tigers went 7-6 after losing big guy Grantham for year- they’re 15-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50. Clemson is #58 experience team; they play pace #296, Aggies play pace #173.
Other tournaments
Austin Peay is 8-4 in its last dozen games; they’re 3-7 outside OVC, beating Sun Belt’s Troy by hoop Dec 19. Governors force turnovers 22.2% of time (#12). UL-Monroe won seven of last ten games; they’re 4-5 outside Sun Belt, losing by 19 at Jacksonville State of OVC Dec 9. ULM is #68 experience team that plays pace #284- they get 40.9% of their points outside the arc.
Wofford got a bye in this tournament; they haven’t played in 12 days; Terriers are 6-4 outside SoCon, with a win in Chapel Hill over the Tar Heels. Wofford is #299 experience team that has made 39.9% of its 3’s (#18). Central Michigan won 94-89 in Ft Wayne Monday, using three starters 33:00+. Chippewas are 9-2 outside MAC, but their NC schedule is ranked #340.
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