The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets/Trends/ News Thru The Madness !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's NIT Semifinals
March 26, 2018

The NIT Men’s Basketball Tournament heads to Madison Square Garden in New York City on Tuesday for the two semifinals matchups leading to Thursday night’s championship game.

Action on the right side of the bracket gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET with No. 4 Western Kentucky taking on No. 2 Utah before No. 4 Mississippi State and No. 4 Penn State finish off the festivities from MSG at 9:00 p.m. ET.

No. 4 Western Kentucky vs. No. 2 Utah (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Hilltoppers -1, Total 142

NIT BETTING RESULTS

Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 13 Western Kentucky (-4) vs. Boston College 79-62 Favorite-Under (159)
Mar. 19 USC vs. Western Kentucky (+4.5, ML +190) 79-75 Underdog-Over (152)
Mar. 21 Western Kentucky (+6, +240) vs. Oklahoma State 92-84 Underdog-Over (150.5)

Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 14 Utah (-12.5) vs. UC Davis 69-59 Underdog-Under (139)
Mar. 19 LSU vs. Utah (-5) 95-71 Favorite-Over (148.5)
Mar. 21 Utah (+6, +250) vs. St. Mary's 67-58 Underdog-Under (140.5)

Betting Matchup

The Hilltoppers lost to Marshall 67-66 in the Conference USA Tournament title game as 5 ½-point favorites, but they have made the most of their NIT bid with a three-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread as the No. 4 seed in Region 3. After rolling over Boston College by 17 points as a four-point home favorite, Western Kentucky went on the road to get past No. 1 USC and No. 2 Oklahoma State as underdogs. The total went OVER in those two road games and it has gone OVER in six of its last nine games overall.

In last Wednesday’s 92-84 victory against the Cowboys as 6 ½-point underdogs, the Hilltoppers got a huge effort from freshman guard Taveion Hollingsworth. His 30 points and eight rebounds led the way among five starters in double figures. Western Kentucky averaged 78.8 points per game this season and it has met or exceeded that average in all three NIT games.

Utah led a host of Pac-12 teams in the NIT this season as the No. 2 seed in Region 4. After failing to cover in a 10-point victory against UC Davis as 12 ½-point home favorite in their first tournament matchup, the Utes lived up to lofty expectations with a 95-71 romp over LSU as five-point favorites at home.

Heading on the road for the quarterfinals, they stunned No. 1 St. Mary’s 67-58 in overtime as six-point underdogs. The total stayed UNDER 141 points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in nine of Utah’s last 12 games.

Junior guard Sedrick Barefield scored three of the Utes’ four three-point buckets in overtime against St. Mary’s as part of his 19 points in last Wednesday’s win. Senior guard Justin Bibbins has been Utah’s leading scorer this season with 14.7 PPG and he started this tournament by scoring 21 points in the opening round. The Utes are averaging 73.8 PPG overall while allowing 68.2 points on defense.

Betting Trends

-- The Hilltoppers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight neutral-site games.

-- The Utes have failed to cover in five of their last six games played at a neutral site and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five games against a team from C-USA.

-- This will be the first meeting between the two.

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No. 4 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Penn State (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Nitanny Lions -2 ½, 134 ½

NIT BETTING RESULTS

Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 14 Mississippi State (-4.5) vs. Nebraska 66-59 Favorite-Under (142.5)
Mar. 18 Baylor vs. Mississippi State (+5.5, ML +200) 78-77 Underdog-Over (133.5)
Mar. 20 Mississippi State (+6, ML +230) vs. Louisville 79-56 Underdog-Under (144)

Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 14 Penn State (-9.5) vs. Temple 63-57 Underdog-Under (144.5)
Mar. 17 Notre Dame vs. Penn State (+5.5, ML +210) 73-63 Undedog-Under (154.5)
Mar. 20 Penn State (+3, ML +140) vs. Marquette 85-80 Underdog-Over (151)

Betting Matchup

The Bulldogs are the pride of the SEC as the only team in that conference still playing basketball this week. Going back to a SU SEC Tournament win against LSU as 2 ½-point favorites, they have covered in each of their last five games. Mississippi State won its last two NIT games as a road underdog including a big 79-56 romp against Louisville as a six-point underdog. The total has stayed UNDER in five of its last seven games.

Mississippi State’s defense put the clamps on the Cardinals in the second half of last Tuesday’s win by holding Louisville to 28 points. On the other side of the ball, junior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon responded with 19 points and 14 rebounds, while going 6-for-10 from the field. He has led the Bulldogs in scoring this season with an average of 14.7 PPG.

Penn State has won its last four games SU when closing as an underdog. Following a six-point win at home against Temple as 9 ½-point favorites in the NIT opener, the Lions beat Notre Dame by 10 points and Marquette by five points as road underdogs in the next two rounds. The total went OVER 151 points against the Golden Eagles last Tuesday after it had stayed UNDER in four of their previous five contests.

Sophomore forward Lamar Stevens is a big reason why Penn State is playing at MSG on Tuesday night after pouring in a game-high 30 points in the win against Marquette. He went 14-for-22 from the field in that game. Sophomore guard Tony Carr remains the Lions’ leading scorer this season with 19.7 PPG and he added 25 points in Tuesday’s winning effort.

Betting Trends

-- The Bulldogs have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games closing as underdogs.

-- The Lions have posted a 0-4-1 record ATS in their last five games against the SEC and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six nonconference games.

-- The only time these two teams played one another was back in 1997 with Mississippi State squeezing out a slight 58-57 win.

[StarDust Bum]

Vols, Barnes believe Loyola can win out
March 26, 2018

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Tennessee coach Rick Barnes believes Loyola-Chicago has a realistic possibility of capping its improbable postseason run with a title.

''I think they have as good a chance as anybody to win the national championship,'' Barnes said Monday.

Barnes is all too familiar with Loyola after his third-seeded Volunteers lost 63-62 to the 11th-seeded Ramblers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Loyola (32-5) followed up that upset by knocking off Nevada and Kansas State to win the East Region in its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1985.

Loyola faces Michigan (32-7) and Villanova (34-4) meets Kansas (31-7) in Saturday's NCAA semifinals at San Antonio.

''When you watch them play, every game, they're a really high-efficient offensive team, a very, very good defensive team,'' Barnes said. ''So they've got as good a chance as anybody.''

Tennessee was 0-2 against Final Four participants, as it lost 85-76 to Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis at Paradise Island, Bahamas, before falling to Loyola in the NCAA Tournament. Last season, Tennessee faced each of the teams that ended up in the Final Four .

Loyola ended Tennessee's season in heartbreaking fashion. Tennessee had gone on a late 8-0 run to take a one-point lead before Loyola's Clayton Custer hit a jumper with 3.6 seconds left that bounced high off the rim and hit the glass before falling through.

The close call should give Tennessee plenty of offseason incentive as it returns the nucleus of its team and pursues the program's first Final Four berth.

''Last year when we got knocked out of the SEC Tournament , there was a week there where you're angry, you're mad because you always feel like you could do more,'' Barnes said. ''The question is how long does it take you to get the fire to want to get back at it. This year it took about a week to get over, but a couple of days ago I told my wife (that) I know I'm ready because I'm already thinking about how we can get better.''

The only departing senior from Tennessee's 2017-18 roster is reserve guard James Daniel III, though Barnes didn't rule out the possibility that other players could opt to transfer. At this point, Tennessee has one available scholarship remaining.

''Our No. 1 priority would be to sign a guard, a point guard,'' Barnes said. ''A high school player would probably be our preference first. ... That position is someone we want to come in here and make an immediate impact.''

Tennessee's veteran roster could be facing an in-state rival that's been missing from the Vols' schedule the last few years.

Barnes said a series with Memphis is in the works. The Volunteers and Tigers are expected to meet in Memphis in 2018-19, followed by matchups in Knoxville in 2019-20 and Nashville in 2020-21.

''We would like to make it a big day of basketball in Nashville with not just us, but bringing in other teams within the state and make it a day to really promote basketball,'' Barnes said. ''That's the reason we're going there. ... I would imagine if it goes the way we want, it won't just be us playing that day when we go to Nashville. It would be like having some kind of jamboree or extravaganza that will really promote basketball in the state of Tennessee.''

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 27

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W KENTUCKY (27 - 10) vs. UTAH (22 - 11) - 3/27/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 61-33 ATS (+24.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 52-26 ATS (+23.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
W KENTUCKY is 61-33 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
W KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
W KENTUCKY is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSISSIPPI ST (25 - 11) vs. PENN ST (24 - 13) - 3/27/2018, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 27

Tuesday’s NIT games (New York City)
Western Kentucky/Utah are both long way from home; Hilltoppers won games at Oklahoma State/USC last week to get here- they’re #155 experience team that plays pace #143 and is 10-5 outside C-USA. WKU won 11 of its last 14 games; they won by 4 at USC (playing without Metu) in only Pac-12 game this season. Utah is 11-3 outside Pac-12; they won in OT at St Mary’s in last game to get here. Utes won nine of last 11 games; they’re #33 experience team that plays pace #299. Utah gets 37.8% of its points behind arc; WKU opponents shot 36.1% behind arc to this point (#237).

Penn State figures to have large crowd edge playing in NYC; Nittany Lions won five of last six games, winning last two games at Notre Dame/Marquette to get here. Penn St is making third trip to NYC this season- they lost 98-87 to Texas A&M in Brooklyn in only SEC game this year, won two of three in Big 14 tourney on this floor earlier this month. Lions are #244 experience team that plays pace #211. Mississippi State won games at Baylor/Louisville to get here; they’re #325 experience team that plays pace #214. Bulldogs beat Nebraska at home by 7 in only Big 14 game this season.




NCAAB

Tuesday, March 27

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Trend Report
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WESTERN KENTUCKY @ UTAH
Western Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

MISSISSIPPI STATE @ PENN STATE
Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 27


Western Kentucky @ Utah

Game 777-778
March 27, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
67.869
Utah
68.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 2
142
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+2); Under

Mississippi State @ Penn State

Game 779-780
March 27, 2018 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi State
71.096
Penn State
69.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi State
by 1 1/2
129
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 3
137
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi State
(+3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
Monty Andrews

You won't find many weaknesses on the Villanova Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (11) vs. Michigan Wolverines (3) (-5, 128.5)

Loyola-Chicago's turnover troubles vs. Wolverines' elite ball security

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were staring at insurmountable odds to reach the Final Four heading into the NCAA Tournament - and yet, here they are, just two wins away from the most improbable collegiate title in history. But the Ramblers still have work to do as they take on the favored Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night in San Antonio. Loyola-Chicago will need to do plenty right to advance to Monday's title game - starting with taking extra-good care of the basketball.

Hot shooting and timely defense has been the trademark of the Ramblers' run to the Final Four in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in more than three decades - but those proficiencies have also masked significant struggles when it comes to turnovers. Loyola-Chicago upended Kansas State 78-62 in Elite Eight action despite losing the turnover battle 15-6 - an extension of its regular-season woes, when it finished outside the top 250 nationally in percentage of possessions leading to a TO (17.3).

It isn't enough that the Wolverines boast one of the top scoring defenses in the nation (63.1 points per game against, eighth-fewest in the country). Michigan also takes care of the ball as well as any team in Division I. The Wolverines commit an average of 9.2 turnovers per contest; only Virginia (8.5) has been better. Michigan will be content to play a plodding, slow-paced game and take advantage of the Ramblers' turnovers - and given past history, there could be a lot of them.

Ramblers' dynamic discipline vs. Wolverines' free-throw aversion

Loyola-Chicago is one of only four No. 11 seeds to reach the Final Four - and the South Region champions don't intend to stop there. But oddsmakers aren't so sure the tournament Cinderella has much magic left in it; Bet365 has the Ramblers installed as a +900 longshot to win the championship. That said, all four teams have played well enough to win the title - including Loyola-Chicago, which can prevail against the imposing Wolverines if it continues to be one of the country's most disciplined teams.

It's hard enough to boast a top-five scoring defense as the Ramblers do (62.4 ppg against) - but to do so without sending opponents to the free-throw line is truly impressive. Loyola-Chicago is one of only three NCAA teams to limit opponents to fewer than 10 made free throws per game, and its 13.9 attempts surrendered per game are sixth-fewest in the country. And that stinginess has extended to the NCAA Tournament, with the Ramblers allowing an average of 11.3 free-throw attempts in their first four games.

That number probably won't climb much - if at all - against a Wolverines team that was positively dreadful at getting to the foul line during the season, averaging just 11.5 makes (312th overall) on 17.4 attempts (271st). And even if Michigan can find a way to draw fouls against the Ramblers, there's no guarantee it will capitalize; the Wolverines have shot an abysmal 66.2 percent from the free-throw line so far this season, good for 321st overall. If this one comes down to free throws, Loyola-Chicago has the edge.

Villanova Wildcats (1) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (1) (+5, 155.5)

Villanova's free-throw bonanza vs. Jayhawks' foul-shot foibles

While the left side of the NCAA Tournament bracket was full of stunning upsets and unpredictable finishes, the right side played out exactly as the bracketeers imagined - with the top seeds prevailing in the East and Midwest Regions, respectively, to set up a 1-vs.-1 Final Four matchup Saturday in San Antonio. But oddsmakers consider the Villanova Wildcats more worthy of a No. 1 seed, making them a comfortable fave vs. the Kansas Jayhawks thanks in some part to a considerable edge at the free-throw line.

You won't find many weaknesses on the Wildcats' roster - particularly on the offensive end, where Villanova boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring offense at 86.6 points per game while ranking sixth in field-goal percentage (49.9) and 19th in 3-point success rate (40 percent). The Wildcats are also as automatic as they come when it comes to free throws, converting at a 78-percent clip through 38 games - good for eighth in the country. If Kansas puts Villanova on the line, the result could be devastating.

The same most certainly cannot be said for the Jayhawks, who have been a below-average free-throw-shooting team for most of the season (70.5 percent, 215th overall) - and it nearly derailed their national title hopes twice, as they shot just 69.2 percent in a four-point win over Seton Hall and 63.6 percent in a four-point triumph over Clemson. They can ill afford a similar showing Saturday against a Villanova team that has proven to be one of the top-shooting teams in the nation.

Wildcats' mediocre assist prevention vs. Jayhawks' sensational ball distribution

Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are the oddsmakers' choice to claim the national championship, installed at -105 on Bet365; Michigan is next at +260, while the Jayhawks sit third at +350 despite being the top seed in the Midwest Region. But while Villanova is far and away the top remaining team in the tournament, it's not perfect - and if the Jayhawks can take advantage of the edge they have in the ball distribution department, they might be in line for the upset.

It might seem like nit-picking, but the Wildcats have not been great at defending opposing passers. Villanova surrenders 13.6 assists per game - ranking 189th overall - and surrenders an assist on 53.1 percent of opposing shots made, placing it outside the top 200 in that category. And good passing was the key to beating the Wildcats during the regular season; Villanova surrendered an average of 16.5 assists while allowing a helper on 56.4 percent of opponents' made shots in their four losses.

If Jayhawks bettors are looking for reason for optimism, this is the place to start. The Jayhawks average a whopping 16.9 assists per contest, the 13th-best mark in the country. And while their 0.564 assists per made field goal ranks just 77th overall, they're a top-20 team in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.43). And that sensational ball movement is heating up as the tournament goes on, with Kansas recording 52 assists over its past three games. Look for the Jayhawks to spread the ball around at will Saturday night.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, MARCH 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WKU at UTAH 07:00 PM
WKU -2.0
O 139.5

PSU at MSST 09:30 PM
MSST +2.5
O 135.5

[StarDust Bum]

Penn State routs Mississippi State 75-60 to reach NIT final
March 27, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) Tony Carr scored 21 points, Shep Garner added 18 while breaking a school record for career 3-pointers and Penn State routed Mississippi State 75-60 in the National Invitation Tournament semifinals Tuesday night.

The fourth-seeded Nittany Lions (25-13) will play No. 2 seed Utah for the championship Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.

After the score was tied 9-all, Penn State ended the first quarter on a 9-2 run. From there, the Nittany Lions opened the second with a 19-0 spurt capped by Garner's 3 off an assist from Carr to make it 37-11.

Penn State was up 42-23 at halftime and led by as many as 27.

Mississippi State (25-12) wasn't able to get within 20 until there was 7:56 left in the game. Abdul Ado's dunk made it 65-47, but that was the closest the fourth-seeded Bulldogs got before the waning moments.

Mississippi State was led by Tyson Carter's 19 points off the bench. Ado had 13 points and seven rebounds.

Lamar Stevens scored 17 points for Penn State. Carr had six assists and five rebounds.

BIG PICTURE

Penn State: While the Nittany Lions would have preferred to play in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011, they made the NIT for the first time under seventh-year coach Pat Chambers. Penn State is back in the NIT title game for the first time since 2009, which it beat Baylor for the crown. The school's only other appearance in the final was a loss to Minnesota in 1998.

Mississippi State: With just one senior on the roster, the Bulldogs will return most of their team and have something positive to build off as they try to move up the rankings in the rugged SEC next season.

UP NEXT

Penn State: Will try to win the second NIT championship in school history. Utah (23-11) beat Western Kentucky 69-64 in the first semifinal.

Mississippi State: Starts preparing for a promising 2018-19 season.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Odds on teams to make the playoffs this season:

Washington Nationals: Yes -$700, No +$500

Toronto Blue Jays: Yes +$250, No -$310

Texas Rangers: Yes +$500, No -$700

Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +$800, No -$1,400

St Louis Cardinals: Yes even, No -$120

Seattle Mariners: Yes +$200, No -$250

Quote of the Day
“Whenever you don’t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.”
Former New Jersey Giants GM George Young

Wednesday’s quiz
What was the last college basketball team to repeat as national champs?

Tuesday’s quiz
Loyola is the only college in Illinois that has won the college basketball national championship.

Monday’s quiz
Klay Thompson played his college basketball at Washington State.

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Wednesday’s List of 13; Mid-week musings……

13) I love numbers, but the analytics revolution in baseball is overdone. There is no way you can quantify a player’s value to the team with a single number— too many variables are involved that cannot be and never will be able to be measured. Here is one example that actually happened:

Two years ago, Player A and Player B were teammates; Player A was getting paid to wear a certain make of spikes, but he wasn’t wearing them. One day, while Player A was talking to the sales rep from the company that was paying him, Player B comes over and tells the sales rep that Player A isn’t wearing his company’s spikes. A fight ensues in the clubhouse.

Player B gets his ass kicked and goes on the DL; Player A gets suspended and the team suffers, since they weren’t very good to begin with and they were now without two decent hitters.

So, analytics people, quantify that for me; make that a part of WAR, when a guy is such a cruddy teammate that his teammate is provoked into kicking his butt!?!? These players live/travel together from March-September. Being a good teammate is an underrated variable.

12) March 22, 2014, the Astros released JD Martinez, just let him walk. He’s hit 128 HR’s in the four years since, and now makes $22M a year in Boston. Astros are now World Champs, despite giving away a player of Martinez’ ability- they’ve won 271 games the last three years. Go figure.

11) Pitt Panthers named Duke assistant Jeff Capel their new head basketball coach; he was previously head coach at VCU, Oklahoma before spending seven years as a Duke assistant. Capel was 79-41 as VCU’s coach (50-22 in conference), 83-69 at Oklahoma (33-43 in conference).

10) Detroit Lions team president Rod Wood said a main reason Detroit didn’t win its bid to host the NFL Draft this year was a date conflict at Ford Field with a robotics convention. Oy.

Detroit also has to start the 2018 season on the road because Ford Field is booked for a concert on September 9— Ed Sheeran, whose concert tour is messing with the first half of the NFL schedule in several cities.

9) When basketball Hall of Famer Bill Walton was in high school/college, he once went 5.5 years without losing a game. His HS team won its last 16 games his junior year and he didn’t lose again until the second half of his senior year at UCLA.

8) Las Vegas Golden Knights were 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup when their first NHL season started back in October. Now they’re 7-1 to win the Cup. Best expansion season ever in any of the four major sports.

St Louis Blues made the Stanley Cup finals in 1968, but that was when the league expanded from 6 to 12 teams and the six new teams were all in the West, so one of them had to make the finals.

7) Interesting quirk to this year’s baseball schedule; A’s visit San Francisco the last three games before the All-Star break, then the Giants visit Oakland the first three games after the break.

6) Louisville paid a search firm $150,000 to find its new athletic director- they wound up hiring the guy who was the interim AD. So they gave a search firm $150K to hire the guy who was already in the job. Something is amiss…….

5) Speaking of the Cardinals, Louisville hired Xavier coach Chris Mack as its new basketball coach, which is a kick in the teeth to the Big East. Mack is a Xavier alum who was a 2-year captain of the Musketeers, but as the saying goes, “Whenever you don’t think its about the money, remember: Its always about the money.”

Mack was making just under $1.7M a year at Xavier; he’s making $4M now. His wife is from Louisville, but the $4M was the deal-maker, for sure.

4) Does New Jersey Giants coach Pat Shurmur have special insight into college players in this year’s draft? His son Kyle is Vanderbilt’s quarterback, who played against NC State LB Bradley Chubb in the 2016 independence Bowl. Giants may very well draft Chubb next month.

3) Butler/Florida will play a home/home basketball series the next two years; the series was negotiated by the two head coaches……on Twitter. Welcome to 2018.

2) ESPN had a mike on Mookie Betts while he was playing right field for the Red Sox Tuesday; as a ball was hit over his head into the corner, he says, “I ain’t getting this one, boys.” They were talking to him in between pitches while the game was going on. Good TV, but one more example of how spring training might be a little too long.

1) Former major league catcher Paul Loduca was on TVG as a horse race handicapper; he likes gambling. Here are his over/under team win total picks for 2018:
Twins, over 83.5 wins
Red Sox, over 91.5 wins
Rockies, over 81.5 wins
Cardinals, under 86 wins

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 28


Illinois-Chicago @ Liberty

Game 723-724
March 28, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois-Chicago
53.483
Liberty
54.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 1
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 6 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois-Chicago
(+6 1/2); Under

Sam Houston St @ Northern Colorado

Game 725-726
March 28, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sam Houston St
53.683
Northern Colorado
58.783
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Colorado
by 5
157
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Colorado
by 10 1/2
149
Dunkel Pick:
Sam Houston St
(+10 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ North Texas

Game 517-518
March 28, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
55.056
North Texas
61.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Texas
by 6 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 3
141
Dunkel Pick:
North Texas
(-3); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 28

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SAN FRANCISCO (22 - 15) at N TEXAS (18 - 18) - 3/28/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IL-CHICAGO (19 - 15) at LIBERTY (22 - 14) - 3/28/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IL-CHICAGO is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAM HOUSTON ST (21 - 14) at N COLORADO (24 - 12) - 3/28/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N COLORADO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games this season.
N COLORADO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N COLORADO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
N COLORADO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
N COLORADO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
N COLORADO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
N COLORADO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
N COLORADO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 28

Game 2, best-of-3 series (USF leads, 1-0)
San Francisco made 14-33 on arc in 72-62 home win over North Texas Monday; Dons won 8 of last 10 games- they won last four games overall, by 4-5-3-10 points. USF played four starters 35:00+ Monday; they’re #264 experience team that plays pace #234. UNT lost 8 of its last 12 games; they played three starters 36:00+ in game they trailed 46-30 at halftime. Mean Green is #287 experience team that plays pace #201- they’re 8-7 outside C-USA. North Texas lost its last seven games that they scored less than 80 points in- they won three of last four at home. USF lost four of its last six road games; this is their first true road game since Feb 10. Gonzaga (2), Long Beach State are only teams to score 80+ vs USF this season.

Ill-Chicago and Liberty are both the Flames. UIC is 11-4 in its last 15 games, winning last seven true road games; they’re 5-8 outside Horizon League, 2-12 vs teams ranked in top 200, beating Oakland/Austin Peay. UIC is #286 experience team that plays pace #21- they turn ball over 20.8% of time. Liberty lost Big South title game at buzzer, their only loss in last six games; they won five of last six home games. Liberty is 9-4 outside Big South; they’re #306 experience team that plays slow pace (#343). Liberty is 8-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200.

Sam Houston State won three of its last four games overall, three of last five on road; they’re #20 experience team that plays pace ##242. Bearkats are 5-7 vs D-I teams outside Southland Conference- they also had four wins vs non-D-I teams. State isn’t a good offensive team (#290 eFG%); they shoot 47% inside arc, 33.5% outside arc- they lost by 9 at Idaho in only Big Sky game this season. Northern Colorado won eight of its last ten games overall, four in row on road. Bears are 8-4 outside Big Sky, winning last game at San Diego- they’re #129 experience team that plays pace #33.




NCAAB

Wednesday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UIC @ LIBERTY
UIC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
UIC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

SAN FRANCISCO @ NORTH TEXAS
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of North Texas's last 10 games
North Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

SAM HOUSTON STATE @ NORTHERN COLORADO
Northern Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northern Colorado is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 31


Loyola-Chicago @ Michigan

Game 811-812
March 31, 2018 @ 6:06 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
69.813
Michigan
79.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 9 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 5
128 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-5); Over

Kansas @ Villanova

Game 813-814
March 31, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas
74.546
Villanova
71.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 5
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-5); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOYOLA-IL (32 - 5) vs. MICHIGAN (32 - 7) - 3/31/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (31 - 7) vs. VILLANOVA (34 - 4) - 3/31/2018, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 113-79 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
KANSAS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 58-30 ATS (+25.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
KANSAS is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VILLANOVA is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win next week’s Masters:

10-1: Woods, Johnson, Thomas, McIlroy

12-1: Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose

14-1: Bubba Watson

16-1: Jason Day, Phil Mickelson

18-1: Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm

25-1: Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: 13 of my favorite sports movies…….

I do this list once a year or so; feel free to make your own list.

13) Major League— Still maintain that Bob Uecker should’ve won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal of Harry Doyle, the Indians’ radio announcer. To this day, when a pitcher throws a really terrible pitch to the backstop, chances are the TV guy will say “….juuuust a biiiit outside…” like Harry Doyle did when Wild Thing Vaughn was on the mound.

12) He Got Game— The only Spike Lee movie I’ve ever seen; its a good one, with Denzel Washington getting released from prison by warden Ned Beatty, on one condition— that he can get his son (Ray Allen) to play basketball at the warden’s alma mater, Big State.

Anyone who was surprised by Louisville’s problems last year didn’t see this movie.

11) Rocky— If only they hadn’t made all those awful sequels. Rocky is a classic; a fighter down on his luck gets a once-in-a-lifetime shot to fight for the heavyweight title back when boxing was a big thing. If you’re at a game in Philly now and they cue up the Rocky music, people still get fired up— its pretty cool.

10) Hoosiers— I’ve had this argument with a friend of mine for years, that Norman Dale was a horrible coach saved only by Jimmy Chitwood not missing a shot in the whole damn movie. Hickory High finished the first game he coached with four guys on the court; even his assistant coach, who wound up in alcohol rehab, knew enough to always give Jimmy the ball when it mattered. They did nail the scene at the end when Hickory wins the state title.

9) Any Given Sunday— Lawrence Taylor and Jim Brown as actors? Yes!!! Al Pacino coaches his Miami Sharks against four teams, all coached by NFL Hall of Famers.

8) Moneyball— The good guys lose in the end, but not before they win 20 games in a row and surprisingly make the playoffs. I won’t embarrass myself by telling you how many times I’ve seen this movie, but if you guess, chances are your guess is too low.

7) Bull Durham— Pitching coach Robert Wuhl delivered this inspirational piece of advice on a visit to the mound:

“……candlesticks always make a nice gift, and uh, maybe you could find out where she’s registered and maybe a place-setting or maybe a silverware pattern. Okay, let’s get two!”

6) Friday Night Lights— Of all the sports movies, Billy Bob Thornton does the best job of portraying a coach, in this case a west Texas high school football coach who gets his best player KO’d for the season by leaving him in a blowout too long. The townspeople aren’t pleased.

5) Blue Chips— Nick Nolte did his research for this by hanging out with Bob Knight’s Indiana Hoosiers for a year, so the thrown chairs and punted balls make more sense. Jerry Tarkanian’s cameo and Bob Cousy’s portrayal of the school’s AD are the underrated parts of this movie.

4) Invincible— True story about Vince Papale, who was a 30-year old bartender that tried out for and wound up playing special teams for the Eagles for three years in the 70’s. Mark Wahlberg plays Papale; Greg Kinnear plays Dick Vermeil.

3) Fast Break— Gabe Kaplan’s character quits his job in a New York City deli to become the basketball coach at a small Nevada college. The team he puts together is interesting- Bernard King and Michael Warren are two of the players.

2) One on One— Robby Benson plays a flashy small school point guard who gets recruited by a big time college program, but once he gets on campus, the coach thinks he made a mistake and tries to run him off the team.

1— For Love of the Game— Kevin Costner pitches for the Tigers, but is at the end of his career. JK Simmons is his manager; John C O’Reilly his catcher, Kelly Preston his girlfriend. Vin Scully is in effect the narrator of the movie.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 29


Penn State @ Utah

Game 711-712
March 29, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
71.209
Utah
70.138
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 1
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 4 1/2
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+4 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN ST (25 - 13) at UTAH (23 - 11) - 3/29/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 29

NIT Championship, NYC
Penn State figures to have large crowd edge playing in NYC; Nittany Lions won six of last seven games- they’re 3-1 on this floor this season, between NIT and Big 14 tourney. PSU had fairly easy win Tuesday but their guards still played 37-40 minutes. Lions are 14-3 outside Big 14 this year- they’re #244 experience team that plays pace #211; Utah is #33 experience team that plays pace #299. Utes won 10 of its last 12 games; they’re 12-3 outside the Pac-12. Utah played four starters 33:00+ in 69-64 win over WKU Tuesday, surviving a -7 (13-6) turnover ratio in their win.




NCAAB

Thursday, March 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN STATE @ UTAH
Penn State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Penn State's last 7 games

Utah Utes
Utah is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, MARCH 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PSU at UTAH 07:00 PM
PSU -3.5
U 134.5

[StarDust Bum]

Believe the hype! Penn State tops Utah for NIT championship
March 29, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) Flavor Flav had his red cap flipped backward as he pulled out his iPhone on the Madison Square Garden court. Flav held the camera steady and recorded cousin Shep Garner clip the final strands of the championship net and wave it toward the Penn State die-hards.

Flav's T-shirt at the NIT said it all for the Nittany Lions: Believe the hype!

Garner hit the 3-pointer that brought rapper and reality star Flavor Flav to his feet and helped send Penn State on its way to an NIT title in an 82-66 victory over Utah on Thursday night.

The fourth-seeded Nittany Lions (26-13) also knocked off No. 1 seed Notre Dame in the tournament en route to winning their first NIT title since 2009.

''This means the whole world to me right now ,'' Flavor Flav said.

They were pretty pumped in Happy Valley, too.

''I think we set the standard,'' Garner said. ''We preach defense and rebounding, but now we have something we can always go to. We won something. We're champions.''

Flavor Flav, member of the seminal `80s rap group Public Enemy, sang along to ''Fight the Power'' as it blasted in the Garden and had the PSU student section chanting ''Flav! Flav! Flav!'' as the Nittany Lions pulled away for a program-defining championship under coach Pat Chambers.

Lamar Stevens scored 28 points, Josh Reaves had 18 and Tony Carr had 15 points and 14 assists for Penn State.

Penn State's Bryce Jordan Center has a long-standing reputation as one of the dreariest arenas in college basketball. Penn State fans, from rappers to silver-haired alumni, packed the Garden all the way to the last row of the upper deck.

Penn State football coach James Franklin, who led the program to a Pinstripe Bowl victory in 2014, was in the house. Flavor Flav stole the show a few rows behind the PSU bench. Wearing a T-shirt that read ''33 Shep Garner,'' Flavor Flav danced all night in his seat. Flavor Flav popped his T-shirt and raised the roof in the same arena where Public Enemy once tore down the house.

''I think we've proven to teams across the country that Penn State basketball is here to stay,'' Chambers said.

The clutch moment came in the third quarter when Garner - who became Penn State's career 3-point leader in the tournament run - hit a 3 for his first basket of the game and a 49-41 lead that had the fans going wild.

''To see my cousin break records, win trophies, all that, he deserves it,'' Flavor Flav said. ''The whole team deserves it.''

Reaves hit a crashing layup on a three-point play that stretched the lead to 11 and Stevens wagged his tongue toward the PSU fans on a jumper that helped blow open the game.

Flavor Flav raised an arm in the air when Garner sank a 3 early in the fourth for a 68-49 edge that all but put this one away.

The final minutes certainly put some flava in your ear - half the MSG crowd chanted ''We Are!'' and the other half bellowed ''Penn State!''

Yeah, boy!

Sedrick Barefield hit six 3s and scored 22 points for second-seeded Utah (23-12).

''You're always kind of watching the NIT and maybe you think of it as the consolation prize or whatever,'' Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak said. ''They have no idea how cool this was for us.''

BIG PICTURE:

Utah: David Collette, Justin Bibbins and Tyler Rawson are among the seniors moving on. ... Bibbins scored 15 points.

Penn State: Stevens reached 1,000 career points was named most outstanding player. ... Chambers, a former assistant coach under Jay Wright at Villanova, took over in 2011 and has struggled to find any kind of regular success. The Nittany Lions have never made the NCAA Tournament under Chambers and they'll have just their second winning record in seven seasons. But Penn State's 26 wins are second-highest in program history. The Nittany Lions won a record 27 games in 2008-09.

BIG CROWD

The 11,175 fans at MSG were the most for an NIT final since 2005.

''And you say we're a football school,'' Chambers cracked.

SOMETHING DIFFERENT

The NIT was a bit of a mad scientist in the college basketball lab. The game featured four 10-minute quarters. The tournament also implemented the FIBA 3-point line (22 feet, 1.75 inches), NBA-width lane of 16 inches, and a 20-second shot clock following offensive rebounds.