The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets/Trends/ News Thru The Madness !

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Games:

WVU at KU
WVU -1.5
O 148.5

TOL at BUFF 07:00 PM
BUFF -6.5
U 158.5

PROV at VILL 07:30 PM
VILL -13.0
O 144.0

EWU at MONT 09:00 PM
EWU +4.5

UNC at UVA 09:30 PM
UVA -3.5
O 125.5

MRSH at WKU 09:30 PM
MRSH +5.5
U 159.5

SFA at SELA 10:00 PM
SFA -7.0

USC at ARIZ 11:00 PM
USC +3.5

GRC at NMSU 11:00 PM
GRC +4.5

[StarDust Bum]

No. 1 Virginia tops UNC, finishes historic run through ACC
March 10, 2018

NEW YORK (AP) Kyle Guy, Devon Hall and No. 1 Virginia completed one of the most successful seasons in the storied history of Atlantic Coast Conference basketball, beating No. 12 North Carolina 71-63 in the tournament championship game Saturday night to finish 20-1 against league competition.

The top-seeded Cavaliers (31-2) set a school record for victories and won the ACC Tournament for the second time in five seasons under coach Tony Bennett, and third time overall. With plenty of their fans packing Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the Cavaliers beat sixth-seeded North Carolina (25-10) for the second time this season and snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Tar Heels in ACC Tournament play.

Guy, the tournament MVP, scored 11 of his 16 points in the second half and Hall added 15 points, five rebounds and four assists. Ty Jerome had 12 points, six assists and six rebounds for Virginia, which will certainly enter the NCAA Tournament as the top overall seed.

Not bad for a bunch that started the season unranked and was picked to finish sixth in the ACC.

Luke Maye led North Carolina with 20 points.

NO. 2 VILLANOVA 76, PROVIDENCE 66

NEW YORK (AP) - Mikal Bridges scored 25 points and hit two 3-pointers in overtime to lift Villanova over Providence in the Big East Tournament championship game.

The Wildcats (30-4) won their second straight Big East Tournament and third in four years (losing in the 2016 final). They put the bow on a fantastic season that should have them earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova had rolled to a pair of dominant victories in the tourney and held off a pesky Providence team that played its third straight overtime game.

The fifth-seeded Friars (21-13) rallied in the second half from yet another double-digit hole and seemed set to pull off one more upset and earn the automatic NCAA berth. Providence erased a 17-point hole in the second half to beat top-seeded Xavier to reach the final. With one stunning rally on its resume, Providence nearly made it two. But the Friars ran out of gas in OT.

NO. 8 CINCINNATI 70, MEMPHIS 60

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Jarron Cumberland scored 18 points and Gary Clark had 17 points and 12 rebounds to rally Cincinnati past Memphis in the semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament.

Kyle Washington added 11 for the Bearcats (29-4), who advanced to meet No. 21 Houston in Sunday's final.

Jamal Johnson led Memphis with 17 points but didn't score in the second half, when the Tigers squandered a 13-point lead. Kyvon Davenport had 12 points and 11 rebounds for Memphis (21-13), which is hoping for an invitation to the NIT.

NO. 9 KANSAS 81, NO. 18 WEST VIRGINIA 70

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Devonte Graham piled up 18 points and 13 assists, Silvio De Sousa came up big in place of Udoka Azubuike and Kansas proved its toughness down the stretch to beat West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament title game.

De Sousa had 16 points on 8 of 8 shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds, and Malik Newman added 20 points to cap a phenomenal tournament, lifting the Jayhawks (27-7) to their 11th tournament title and a likely No. 1 seed when the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed Sunday.

It was the second time in three years they've beaten West Virginia (24-10) in the title game.

Svi Mykhailiuk also had 16 points for the Jayhawks, who scrapped their way through three games in three days without their 7-foot anchor. Azubuike hurt a ligament in his left knee in practice early in the week and spent the weekend on the bench, though he's expected to return next week.

Daxter Miles Jr. finished with 25 points, and Jevon Carter had 17 points and nine assists for the Mountaineers, who have lost three straight Big 12 Tournament championship games.

NO. 21 HOUSTON 77, NO. 11 WICHITA STATE 74

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Rob Gray had a key steal and scored 33 points, including two free throws with 5 seconds remaining, as Houston held off Wichita State in an American Athletic Conference Tournament semifinal.

Corey Davis Jr. scored 19 points for the Cougars (26-6), who advanced to play No. 8 Cincinnati in the championship game.

Houston led by as many as nine points in the first half before the lead changed hands or was tied eight times in the final seven minutes.

With the Cougars trailing 74-73, Gray intercepted a pass near midcourt and drove to the basket, handing off to Galen Robinson for a layup with 1:27 remaining. Houston sealed the victory when Robinson intercepted an in-bounds pass with 5 seconds left and a foul by the Shockers sent Gray to the free-throw line.

Landry Shamet led Wichita State (25-7) with 19 points while Shaquille Morris had 12, including 10 in the final seven minutes to keep the game close.

NO. 13 TENNESSEE 84, ARKANSAS 66

ST. LOUIS (AP) - Jordan Bone scored 19 points to help spark a hot-shooting first half for Tennessee, which beat Arkansas in the Southeastern Conference Tournament semifinals.

The win is the sixth straight and 13th in the last 15 games for the second-seeded Volunteers (25-7), who will try to win their first SEC Tournament championship in almost 40 years when they face Kentucky on Sunday.

Bone scored 17 of his points in the first half, hitting 7 of 7 from the field and all three of his 3-point attempts. Admiral Schofield added 16 points for Tennessee, while Grant Williams, Kyle Alexander and James Daniel III finished with 12 points apiece.

Daryl Macon scored 19 points to lead the sixth-seeded Razorbacks (23-11), who had won eight of their previous 10 games.

NO. 25 RHODE ISLAND 80, SAINT JOSEPH'S 87

WASHINGTON (AP) - Andre Berry scored 18 points, Fatts Russell made two crucial 3-pointers in the final six minutes and Rhode Island rallied past Saint Joseph's in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament semifinals.

The Rams (25-6) are the first No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 to reach the conference championship game since Saint Louis in 2013.

Jeff Dowtin added 16 points and 10 assists for Rhode Island, Russell scored 14 points and E.C. Matthews had 11 of his 14 points in the second half for the defending tournament champions.

Shavar Newkirk had 18 points, eight rebounds and six assists for the fourth-seeded Hawks (16-16), who drubbed Rhode Island 78-48 last week. Saint Joseph's appeared poised to deliver another upset while trying to extend its season, building an 11-point lead early in the second half.

[StarDust Bum]

March CBB Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/10/2018 23-18-0 56.10% +16.00
03/09/2018 24-28-1 46.15% -34.00
03/08/2018 39-37-3 51.32% -8.50
03/07/2018 20-21-1 48.78% -15.50
03/06/2018 13-16-0 44.44% -23.00
03/05/2018 13-8-0 61.90% +16.00
03/04/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
03/03/2018 52-56-1 48.15% -48.00
03/02/2018 13-16-0 44.83% -23.00
03/01/2018 20-24-1 45.45% -32.00

Totals..........222 - 227 -2....49.44%.....-134.50

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Over last two years, best 3-point shooters in NBA:

6) Seth Curry, 137-322, 42.5%

5) Darren Collison, 145-339, 42.8%

4) Klay Thompson, 471-1101, 42.8%

3) Otto Porter Jr, 257-595, 34.2%

2) Kyle Korver, 307-698, 44.0%

1) Joe Ingles, 289-649, 44.5%


**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Basketball trivia: a regulation hoop is exactly two basketballs wide. Its a pretty good coaching point to show that to kids- the hoop looks smaller because it is ten feet up in the air, but if you show kids that two basketballs can fit in a rim, it can help their confidence.

12) Arizona 75, USC 61— If you made me tell you who the best team in the country is, I’d tell you Arizona, though Virginia is close. All the chaos at Arizona this season may help them this month, since they’re used to the limelight- it may have brought the team closer together.

Pac-12 will have an interesting day, with UCLA/Arizona State on the bubble. It is possible that the AAC gets more teams in the tournament than the Pac-12.

11) UMBC 65, Vermont 62— Retrievers win the America East title- this was a great game. This league has found a niche with the 11am Saturday slot in Champ Week. No matter where their championship game is played, the gym is always packed.

Senior guard Jairus Lyles drained a straight-away 3-pointer with 0:00.6 left to give UMBC its first NCAA berth since 2008. This was UMBC’s first win over Vermont in their last 24 meetings.

Ryan Odom is UMBC’s coach; his dad is Dave Odom, who was Tim Duncan’s coach at Wake Forest.

10) How great was Pistol Pete Maravich? He played at LSU from 1967-70, long time ago, but there are still eight college gyms in this country where Maravich holds the scoring record for a visiting player. Pistol Pete scored 44.2 ppg in his three-year varsity career, and that was before 3-pointers were in the game.

9) Marshall 67, Western Kentucky 66- Thundering Herd is in NCAAs for first time since 1987; they’re coached by Dan D’Antoni, Mike’s brother.

8) LIU won the NEC tournament this week; they’re 18-16 this year, against the #335 schedule in the country (out of 351). Only 5 of their 34 games were against teams ranked in the top 200.

7) Coaching carousel: UConn fired Kevin Ollie, Georgia fired Mark Fox.

UConn won the national championship four years ago, but in this “What have you done for me lately?” world, they’re 30-35 the last two years, so Ollie was told to take a hike.

Georgia is 58-50 in SEC games the last six years, but Dawgs only made the NCAAs twice in nine years under Fox. Some smart mid-major team will hire Fox and will be glad they did.

Also being rumored that Fresno State coach Rodney Terry will be leaving for the UTEP job, which I am told pays better than Fresno.

6) Mookie Betts started out spring training 0-16; I’ve always wondered if players get stressed out over spring training slumps. When Betts got his first hit of the spring the other day, an infield hit, he smiled and pointed to the skies, so apparently, the 0-16 start stressed him out.

5) Cal-Fullerton 71, Cal-Irvine 55— Big West has nine teams in it; the last eight years, 8 of those 9 teams won the Big West tournament once each, which may help explain why Cal-Riverside will be hiring a new coach this spring.

4) Houston 77, Wichita State 74— AAC semifinal was a terrific game; dawned me during second half that Jim Nantz went to college at Houston, but you’d never know it listening to him call the game. Nantz, Raftery and Grant Hill make a good broadcasting team.

3) Villanova 76, Providence 66 OT— Bubble teams everywhere exhale; Friars would’ve been a bid-stealer. Internet pundits keep speculating about Chris Mack or Ed Cooley leaving for other schools, but why would you leave a Big East job?

Not only is the Big East a really good league, there is no football involved at those schools, so your team is king at your school, and thats a big thing.

2) Every bubble team in the country will be rooting for Rhode Island against Davidson today; if Davidson wins, it knocks another team off the bubble. Nevada losing in the Mountain West already knocked one bubble team off.

1— Today is one of the longer days of the year, and not because we turned the clocks ahead an hour last night; NCAA brackets come out at 6:00 tonight. Once the brackets come out, then it is a full night of research and handicapping. Sleepy day, very busy night.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 11


Pennsylvania @ Harvard

Game 819-820
March 11, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pennsylvania
58.924
Harvard
54.447
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pennsylvania
by 4 1/2
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pennsylvania
by 2
132
Dunkel Pick:
Pennsylvania
(-2); Over

Davidson @ Rhode Island

Game 821-822
March 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Davidson
63.326
Rhode Island
68.867
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Rhode Island
by 5 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Rhode Island
by 2
139 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Rhode Island
(-2); Over

Kentucky @ Tennessee

Game 823-824
March 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kentucky
72.339
Tennessee
71.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 1
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1
140
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(+1); Under

TX-Arlington @ Georgia State

Game 825-826
March 11, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TX-Arlington
56.545
Georgia State
55.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TX-Arlington
by 1
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia State
by 1 1/2
150
Dunkel Pick:
TX-Arlington
(+1 1/2); Under

Houston @ Cincinnati

Game 827-828
March 11, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
68.785
Cincinnati
76.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 7 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 4 1/2
127 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-4 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 11

Ivy League tournament, Philadelphia
Penn/Harvard split pair of games this year, with home side winning both meetings. Harvard is 7-3 in last ten series games; teams split last six. Quakers are playing this on their home court; they’re 8-0 in Ivy home games this season. Crimson lost last three visits here, by 10-3-3 points, though they did win here yesterday, beating Cornell by 19. Only two Harvard guys played more than 30:00. Penn has easy time in their semi-final game; they’re 11-2 in last 13 games, with a win over St Joe’s in there. No Quaker played more than 29:00 yesterday.

Atlantic 14 tourney, Washington DC
Davidson/Rhode Island split pair of games this year; home side won both. Rams won first meeting Feb 9, then lost rematch 63-61 in Charlotte March 2, when URI was just 6-24 on arc, 5-11 on foul line. Rams are 4-3 in A-14 meetings with Davidson, beating Wildcats 84-60 in this event LY. URI is 4-3 in its last seven games overall; they made 14-31 on arc, rallied back from down 11 in 2nd half in 90-87 win over St Joe’s yesterday. Wildcats won 10 of last 12 games; they played three starters 38:00+ in 82-70 win over St Bonaventure yesterday, pulling away late.

SEC tournament, St Louis
Tennessee beat Kentucky twice this season, 76-65 in Knoxville Jan 6, then 61-59 in Rupp Arena Feb 6, when Volunteers outscored Kentucky 9-4 over last 2:53 of game. Tennessee won its last six games; they drubbed Arkansas by 18 yesterday- no Hog played more than 29:00. Kentucky won six of its last seven games, winning last two days by 13-23 points; three of their guys still played 31:00+ Saturday. Wildcats won last three SEC tournaments; they’re 21-3 in last 24 SEC tourney games. Vols are in SEC final for first time since ’09, when they lost to Miss State by 3.

Sun Belt tournament, New Orleans
Tex-Arlington won five in row, eight of last ten games- they played only seven guys yesterday, three of them 35:00+ in upset win over top-seed ULL. UTA is most experienced team in nation; six of seven guys who played yesterday are seniors. Georgia State/Tex-Arlington split pair of games this year, with home side winning both; State is 5-4 overall in Sun Belt meetings with UTA. Panthers played three guys 30:00+ in 73-67 win yesterday; they held on to win after PG Simonds got in foul trouble- they led by 18 in 1st half. State won 14 of its last 18 games.

AAC tournament, Orlando
Cincinnati is 29-4 this year, but they split pair with Houston, losing 67-62 in Texas Feb 15; Bearcats are 8-2 in AAC meetings wth Houston. Cincy won its last six games, but they were down 13 at half to Memphis yesterday before storming back to win 70-60. Three Bearcats played 31:00+. Houston won 10 of its last 11 games, with only loss at Memphis; Cougars won 10 of last 11 games, winning tough 77-74 game with Wichita Saturday. Three Houston kids played 30:00+ yesterday. Both of these teams are in NCAA’s, so they’re just playing for a trophy here.




NCAAB

Sunday, March 11

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Trend Report
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PENNSYLVANIA @ HARVARD
Pennsylvania is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Pennsylvania is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Harvard is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Harvard is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

KENTUCKY @ TENNESSEE
Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kentucky

DAVIDSON @ RHODE ISLAND
Davidson is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Davidson is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Rhode Island is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
Rhode Island is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Davidson

TEXAS-ARLINGTON @ GEORGIA STATE
Texas-Arlington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas-Arlington's last 7 games when playing Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia State's last 7 games when playing Texas-Arlington
Georgia State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Houston

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 11

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PENNSYLVANIA (23 - 8) vs. HARVARD (18 - 12) - 3/11/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HARVARD is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
HARVARD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
HARVARD is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
HARVARD is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HARVARD is 4-2 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 3-3 straight up against PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DAVIDSON (20 - 11) vs. RHODE ISLAND (25 - 6) - 3/11/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
RHODE ISLAND is 3-3 against the spread versus DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
RHODE ISLAND is 4-2 straight up against DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (23 - 10) vs. TENNESSEE (25 - 7) - 3/11/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 5-1 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-2 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TX-ARLINGTON (21 - 12) vs. GEORGIA ST (23 - 10) - 3/11/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TX-ARLINGTON is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 51-25 ATS (+23.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TX-ARLINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
TX-ARLINGTON is 4-1 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (26 - 6) vs. CINCINNATI (29 - 4) - 3/11/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 119-160 ATS (-57.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

AAC Championship betting preview and odds: Houston vs. Cincinnati

Houston Cougars vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-4.5, 127.5)

Game to be played at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida

No. 8 Cincinnati can make its final statement toward earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday when the top-seeded Bearcats face third-seeded Houston in the American Athletic Conference Tournament final in Orlando. Cincinnati has won six in a row and, with only four losses all season, is certainly in the mix to be on the top line when the Field of 68 is announced Sunday, while 21st-ranked Houston is comfortably in the field, as well.

The Bearcats have defeated SMU (61-51) and Memphis (70-60) in their first two games of this event as Gary Clark has averaged 14.5 points and 11.5 rebounds. Jarron Cumberland added 18 points versus Memphis after going scoreless against SMU, giving Houston one more weapon to worry about in the championship game. The Cougars rode Rob Gray's 33 points to a 77-74 win over Wichita State on Saturday, earning a trip to the AAC title game for the first time. Houston knows it can beat Cincinnati, as it did as recently as Feb. 15 when it snapped the Bearcats' national-best winning streak at 16 games.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

If you're in the market for an online sportsbook, check out in-depth reviews of the best books and sign-up bonuses at OddsShark.com.

BETTING STATS:



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Bearcats opened as 4.5-point chalk and that number has yet to move. The total hit the board at 131 and money coming in on the under has driven that number quickly down to 127.5.

MATCHUP CHART:



ABOUT HOUSTON: The Cougars only had seven turnovers in Saturday's win and that proved to be the difference, along with 7-of-15 combined 3-point shooting by Gray and Corey Davis Jr. The other three starters for Houston combined for only 13 points, although Nura Zanna did register a team-high nine rebounds off the bench. Gray has reached the 30-point plateau in two of his last three games and is averaging 24.7 points over his last six outings.

ABOUT CINCINNATI: The Bearcats committed only three turnovers against Memphis, which was critical because the team shot barely above 40 percent from the field for the second straight game. Kyle Washington contributed double-digit points for the fourth straight game but missed both of his 3-pointers, dropping him to 2-of-12 from outside the arc over the last four games. Jacob Evans is 1-of-11 from long distance over the last two outings and has made only 4-of-17 shots during that span, totaling nine points - four below his season average.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-1 in Cougars last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 6-1 in Bearcats last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

TIP-INS:

* The Bearcats have previously won 30 games in a season twice - in 2001-02 and in 2016-17.
* Houston starting F Breaon Brady has gone 10 straight games without attempting more than three shots.
* Davis is 9-of-12 from 3-point range against Cincinnati this season.

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Trends and Angles
March 11, 2018

Venue: Scottrade Center - St. Louis, Missouri

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 4-6-2 ATS
Over/Under: 7-5

Sunday, March 11
FINALS
Matchup Records Skinny Projection

No. 2 Tennessee
Overall: 25-7 SU, 18-12 ATS
Totals: 12-18 O/U

No. 4 Kentucky
Overall: 23-10 SU, 16-17 ATS
Totals: 16-15 O/U

No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 4 Kentucky (ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Volunteers were the best SEC team remaining after the dust cleared Friday, and they looked the part on Saturday when dusting Arkansas. They made quick work of the Hogs, 84-66, in the semis, and will now face their rivals from Lexington in the final. These teams met twice during the regular season, with the Vols sweeping the season series. Tennessee won the most recent meeting 61-59 at Rupp Arena on Feb. 6, and they took a 76-65 decision in Knoxville back on Jan. 6, covering both affairs while the 'under' also cashed in each. This will be Tennessee's first trip to the title game since 2009. They haven't won the tournament since 1979.

The Wildcats are no stranger to Championship Sunday in the SEC, as this is their fifth consecutive appearance, and they are aiming for their fourth consecutive title, too. These teams haven't met for the SEC title since 1979 at BJCC Coliseum in Birmingham when the Vols edged the Wildcats 75-69 in overtime. As mentioned, Kentucky was swept by Tennessee in regular season, but lately they have been cover kings. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games with the 'over' also going 6-1 during the span. On a neutral-site floor, Kentucky is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in five games this season.

Tennessee 79
Kentucky 82

[StarDust Bum]

Rambling on: Loyola up for first NCAA tourney in 33 years
March 11, 2018

CHICAGO (AP) Loyola of Chicago coach Porter Moser recalled dinners with Rick Majerus.

Whether they went to a fancy restaurant or a greasy spoon, it was always a local joint and never some middle-of-the-road national chain. There was no such thing as a quick bite, either, even if his boss insisted they were going for just that.

''He liked a big group. He liked to talk ball. He liked to talk movies, politics. But it was an event,'' Moser said. ''It was a three-hour event.''

The late Majerus would have plenty to chew on with Loyola heading to the NCAA Tournament. After all, they're in it for the first time in 33 years and his former assistant is leading the way.

The Ramblers bring a 28-5 record after dominating the Missouri Valley during the regular season and securing their spot by winning the conference tournament. They sure have come a long way in Moser's seven years, and in a city where they're often overlooked, they're suddenly a big story.

''We've been getting a lot of love around the area and people reaching out through social media,'' senior Ben Richardson said. ''I felt like there was a dormant fan base that's kind of coming alive in Chicago.''

The Ramblers drew their first sellout since 2003 for the regular-season finale against Illinois State and beat the Redbirds in the conference final. That sent them to the NCAA tourney for the first time since a loss to Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in the 1985 Sweet 16. And no other team from the area is going.

''It's cool that we're the only Chicago team that's gonna be in the NCAA,'' guard Clayton Custer said. ''Having the support from the whole city is a cool thing for us. Obviously, we want to go out there and try to win some games, and hopefully the excitement will grow even more.''

Northwestern stumbled badly after making the NCAA for the first time, dropping its final seven games to finish 15-17. The Wildcats were 6-12 in the Big Ten despite having most of the top players back. But instead of another run, the school that hosted the first Final Four finds itself back in a familiar position - on the outside at tournament time.

DePaul moved from Rosemont to a gleaming new arena on Chicago's Near South Side, and the new digs were about the only thing shining for a once-proud program. The Blue Demons went 11-20 for their 11th straight losing season and finished last in the Big East for the eighth time in 10 years.

DePaul has made 22 NCAAs - but just two in 26 years. And the most recent appearance was during coach Dave Leitao's first tenure in 2004.

UIC last reached it that same year, and Chicago State has never been to the tournament. Northern Illinois - about 65 miles from downtown Chicago - has three appearances and none since 1996.

''Chicago has a great history of basketball,'' said Loyola forward Donte Ingram, who played at Simeon Career Academy - the South Side powerhouse that produced Derrick Rose and Jabari Parker. ''I wouldn't necessarily say we're carrying the flag right now. We're just representing the city the best way we can.''

The Jesuit school of about 16,000 along the lakefront on Chicago's far North Side has a big spot in NCAA history with a championship in 1963 that is a benchmark for civil rights. Loyola started four black players and brought home what remains the only title for an Illinois school.

But the years following the run in 1985 weren't easy.

Loyola had a string of 14 seasons without a winning record. That ended in 2002.

In the four years before Moser's arrival in 2011, the Ramblers finished with losing marks three times. And in his first three seasons, they won seven, 15 and 10 games before breaking through with a 24-13 record and a College Basketball Invitational championship in 2015.

A move from the Horizon League to the Valley in 2013 with powerhouse Wichita State then in the conference didn't make the job easier. But Moser was no stranger to rebuilding.

He took on big jobs at Arkansas-Little Rock and Illinois State, where he was let go in 2007 after four seasons. The four years he then spent with Majerus at Saint Louis reinforced that Moser had the right approach - to stay patient rather than go for quick fixes.

The way Majerus coached his players and developed game plans also stood out.

''He'd have eight, 10 teaching points on how to hedge a ball screen,'' Moser said. ''The accumulation and the emphasis on all the little things added up. Sitting in a boardroom game-planning with him, to listen to his mind work on `how we're going to take the two, three things they do best away from them?'

''To sit there for four years for 30-something games a year - and many, many meals - and listen to him (and see) how his mind worked on how he wanted to stop a team or game planning against a team, you can't put a price tag on what spending that time with him meant to me.''

[StarDust Bum]

BUBBLE WATCH: Davidson takes best shot; 'Bama, USC wait
March 11, 2018

A barrage of 3-pointers gave Davidson a shot to make the NCAA Tournament.

Another accurate day from the arc for the Wildcats could burst the hopes of bubble teams across the country.

The Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament final on Sunday between Davidson and top-seeded Rhode Island may be must-see viewing at Arizona State, Louisville, Syracuse and any other school on precarious NCAA tourney footing.

Win and the Wildcats snatch the A-10's automatic NCAA bid away from top-seeded Rhode Island. But the 25th-ranked Rams (25-6, 14 RPI) have a good enough resume to claim a precious at-large bid even if they lose.

Davidson (20-11, 74 RPI) is no lock if it loses. The Wildcats are 3-6 against Quadrant 1 teams and ranked 108th in strength of schedule.

Quadrant 1 wins are defined as victories in home games against teams with RPIs in the top 30, neutral-court wins against teams in the top 50 or road wins against teams in the top 75.

Still, bubble teams might have reason to worry. The Wildcats' stock is rising thanks to all those 3s: 16 in an 82-70 win over St. Bonaventure in the A-10 semifinals on Saturday to snap the Bonnies' 13-game winning streak.

''I think it's just us sticking to our game plan and sticking to what we do best, which is move the ball, attack appropriately, find the open man, throw to the next one,'' said guard Kellan Grady, who scored 23 points.

In the Big 12, Oklahoma remains one of the more interesting teams on the bubble. The Sooners (18-13, 48 RPI) stumbled in February and finished 8-10 in the Big 12. They were booted from their conference tournament in their first game by Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma also has six Quadrant 1 wins, including a victory in January over Kansas, which beat West Virginia to win the Big 12 tourney on Saturday. The Big 12 is one of the strongest conferences in the country this season.

The brackets are scheduled to be announced Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, after the American Athletic final between Houston and Cincinnati wraps up conference tournament season. But those two teams ranked in the AP Top 25 appear to be safely in the tourney no matter what happens.

Tennessee and Kentucky also have good enough NCAA resumes regardless of which team wins the Southeastern Conference Tournament final on Sunday.

For bubble teams, that makes the Atlantic 10 final in Washington the most important game to watch on Selection Sunday.

ON THE RISE

Alabama: A 23-point loss to Kentucky in the SEC semifinals in St. Louis on Saturday isn't the ideal lasting impression to leave on the NCAA selection committee. But the Crimson Tide (19-15, 36 RPI) may have still done enough to make the NCAAs after beating No. 16 Auburn by 18 on Friday.

''When we got on the plane to come to St. Louis, there are a lot of unknowns about kind of our future, especially in the NCAA Tournament,'' Crimson Tide coach Avery Johnson said. ''But the perseverance that they've showed this year and especially over the last 48, 72 hours ... we've played ourselves hopefully (into) the tournament.''

Southern California: A run to the Pac-12 Tournament final against Arizona may have put the Trojans (23-11, 33 RPI) on firmer footing and made Saturday night more about an opportunity to improve NCAA seeding.

Butler: ''On the rise'' might be pushing it for the Bulldogs after getting blown out by Villanova in the Big East tourney semifinals. But Butler (20-13, 40 RPI) has an important Quadrant 1 win in the regular season over the Wildcats on its resume. Villanova beat Providence to win the conference tourney on Saturday.

FADING HOPES

St. Bonaventure: Coach Mark Schmidt plans to pray on Selection Sunday. The resume looks impressive with nonconference wins over Syracuse and Maryland. But the loss to Davidson deprived the Bonnies (25-7, 21 RPI) a chance to cement their NCAA tourney hopes.

''I don't know if we could have done any better,'' Schmidt said about building the Bonnies' resume. ''So I think we're going to have a good day tomorrow. Those guys deserve it ... so let's pray that we do.''

Middle Tennessee: A threat to win a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament - if it gets in. But the Blue Raiders (23-7, 34 RPI) must rely on getting an at-large berth after getting upset by Southern Mississippi in the first round of the Conference USA Tournament.

Big Ten teams: Remember Nebraska and Penn State? When the NCAA selection committee unveils the bracket on Sunday, more than a week will have passed since the last time the Cornhuskers (22-10, 57 RPI) and Nittany Lions (21-13, 78 RPI) played in the Big Ten tourney. They're probably NIT-bound.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, MARCH 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DAV at URI 02:00 PM
DAV +3.0
U 138.0

UK at TENN 02:00 PM
TENN -2.0
O 137.0

UTA at GSU 02:00 PM
GSU -2.0
O 143.5

HOU at CIN 03:30 PM
CIN -4.5
O 128.0

[StarDust Bum]

No. 8 Cincinnati beats No. 21 Houston 56-55 in AAC final
March 11, 2018

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) Gary Clark put Cincinnati ahead for good with a free throw with 4.3 seconds remaining and the eight-ranked Bearcats held for a 56-55 victory over No. 21 Houston on Sunday in the American Athletic Conference championship.

Clark finished with 20 points and the league regular-season champions rescued themselves for the second straight day with a stellar second-half performance, limiting Houston to 20 percent shooting and 18 points after halftime.

Cincinnati (30-4) earned the AAC's automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament with its first conference tournament championship since the Bearcats won Conference USA in 2004.

Houston (26-7), which split a pair of games against Cincinnati during the regular season, lost for just the third time in its last 15 games and is headed to the NCAA Tournament, too.

Rob Gray led the Cougars with 17 points but missed a long 3-pointer in the closing seconds, then had a turnover that cost Houston a chance to try to win the game after Clark made one of two free throws after rebounding Gray's miss.

KENTUCKY 77, No. 13 TENNESSEE 72

ST. LOUIS (AP) - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 29 points to lead Kentucky to its fourth straight Southeastern Conference Tournament championship.

The championship is the 31st in tournament history for the fourth-seeded Wildcats (24-10), who have won seven of their past eight games since a four-game losing streak last month. It was their first victory in three tries this season against the No. 2 seed Volunteers (25-8).

Gilgeous-Alexander was 10 of 16 from the field and added seven rebounds and a pair of steals, and he hit the clinching free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining. His 29 points were one off his career high of 30. Kevin Knox added 18 points and Quade Green had 10 for the Wildcats.

Admiral Schofield had 22 points and 10 rebounds to lead Tennessee, which was attempting to win its first tournament championship since 1979.

DAVIDSON 58, No. 25 RHODE ISLAND 57

WASHINGTON (AP) - Still looking for its first victory in the NCAA Tournament since Stephen Curry led the way, Davidson is goin' dancin' as the Atlantic 10 champion after edging Rhode Island in the conference final behind Kellan Grady's 17 points.

Bubble teams across the land could not have been pleased to see Davidson (21-11) pull through, because the Wildcats were not going to get to join in the March Madness fun with a loss. The top-seeded Rams (25-7), though, were an at-large selection in the bracket.

Davidson won despite going nearly 13 minutes in the second half without making a field goal, a 0-for-11 drought that somehow did not prevent it from celebrating at game's end. The Wildcats haven't been to the NCAAs since 2015 - and haven't won a March Madness game since the Curry-led 2008 squad pulled off victories over Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin before bowing out against Kansas in the Elite Eight.

E.C. Matthews led the way with 20 points and eight rebounds for Rhode Island, which was trying to win a second consecutive conference tournament title.

[StarDust Bum]

March CBB Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/11/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
03/10/2018 23-18-0 56.10% +16.00
03/09/2018 24-28-1 46.15% -34.00
03/08/2018 39-37-3 51.32% -8.50
03/07/2018 20-21-1 48.78% -15.50
03/06/2018 13-16-0 44.44% -23.00
03/05/2018 13-8-0 61.90% +16.00
03/04/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
03/03/2018 52-56-1 48.15% -48.00
03/02/2018 13-16-0 44.83% -23.00
03/01/2018 20-24-1 45.45% -32.00

Totals..........226 - 231 -2....49.45%.....-136.50

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six interesting first round pointspreads:

— Kentucky -6 vs Davidson

— Clemson -5.5 vs New Mexico State

— Tennessee -13 vs Wright State

— Kansas -15.5 vs Penn— Lowest spread in 1-16 game since UNC-Vermont in 2012.

— Seton Hall -2 vs NC State

— Michigan -11.5 vs Montana


**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Initial thoughts on the field of 68

13) When I first saw the brackets, it upset me that USC was left out; they’re a very good team and surely deserved to get in, right? Same with Oklahoma State and to a lesser extent, Louisville.

Then I read something Pat Forde of Yahoo! Sports posted on Twitter:

“Louisville out. USC out. Oklahoma State out. What do they have in common? Part of the federal investigation of college hoops.”

That actually made me feel better, that there was a reason those teams got left out, but still don’t think Syracuse belonged in, but they are in, so we move on despite that.

12) Turns out Davidson’s win over Rhode Island knocked Notre Dame out of the field of 68.

11) Middle Tennessee State won Conference USA, the #12 league in country, but lost in their conference tournament; the Blue Raiders played #13 non-conference schedule in the country, losing to USC by 5, Miami by 3- they beat Vandy, Ole Miss, Murray State, but they get left home.

10) Texas Southern deserves special mention; coached by Mike Davis, who replaced Bob Knight at Indiana, the Tigers won the SWAC tourney, after starting this season 0-13.

In November/December, Texas Southern played guarantee games at:
Gonzaga-Ohio St-Syracuse-Kansas-Clemson-Oregon-Baylor-Wyoming-TCU-BYU

Texas Southern may not be a great team, but their players probably pack really well, and their accountants are really happy, because all those guarantee games pay a lot of bills.

9) Something to ponder when the Sweet 16 rolls around: looking back over the last 12 NCAA tournaments, the eventual national champ went 21-3 vs spread on the first weekend, so look for teams who were impressive on the first weekend to maintain that momentum.

8) Since 2006, 46 of 52 #1-seeds got to the Sweet 16, so if you’re filling out a bracket and are tempted to predict an early out for a #1 seed, please don’t do it. For your own good.

7) Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 vs spread in the first round.
Last four years, #2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in the first round.
Last three years, #3-seeds are 4-8 vs spread in the first round.

6) Penn is a 16-seed, the first time since at least 2002 the Ivy League champ is a 16-seed; they were a 15-seed only once in last 15 tournaments, back in ’06.

Over the last eight years, Ivy League teams are 7-1 vs spread in NCAA first round games.

5) Since 2003, only 8 of 60 Final Four teams lost their first conference tourney game: Here are those teams:

2003— Marquette, Texas
2005— Michigan State
2007— UCLA
2009— UConn
2010— Michigan State (only team to do it twice)
2016— Syracuse
2017— South Carolina

4) Over the last 15 years, of the 60 teams who made the Final Four, 26 won their conference tournament. Over last six years, only 7 of 24 Final Four teams won their conference tourney; from 2004-11, 19 of 32 Final Four teams did.

7 of the last 15 national champs won their conference tourney, but only one of the last six.

3) Since the NCAA tournament went to 64, and then 68 teams, #2 seeds are 124-8 in their first round tournament games; here are the eight #2 seeds who lost in the first round:

1990— Richmond (+9) 73, Syracuse 69
1993— Santa Clara (+20) 64, Arizona 61
1997— Coppin State (+17) 78, South Carolina 65
2001— Hampton (+17.5) 58, Iowa State 57
2012— Lehigh (+12) 75, Duke 70
2012— Norfolk State (+21.5) 86, Missouri 84
2013— Florida Gulf Coast (+13.5) 78, Georgetown 68
2016— Middle Tennessee State (+18) 90, Michigan State 81

2) First Four point spreads for Tuesday/Wednesday games:

Tuesday: Radford -3.5 vs LIU; UCLA -3 vs St Bonaventure
Wednesday: Texas Southern -4.5 vs NC Central; Arizona State -1 vs Syracuse

1— Must be nice to have lot of money: Michigan State’s basketball team spent couple of days in Chicago last week, practiced in the Chicago Bulls’ practice facility, just to get away from campus.

Big 14 teams have extra time to prepare for the NCAA’s this year, because the Big 14 tournament was a week earlier than usual. Lot of people think the layoff will make those teams fresher.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 12

Central Michigan was 9-2 in pre-conference games (schedule #340); Chippewas won three of last four games overall- they’re 4-10 vs teams ranked in top 200. Fort Wayne lost four of its last six games; they’re 7-6 in non-MAC games, and are also 4-10 vs teams in top 200. Last three years, MAC teams are 9-9 vs Summit League teams. CMU last played Thursday; Mastodons last played eight days ago.

Drake is #7 experience team in country that starts four seniors; they lost last three games, by 8-5-2 points. Bulldogs are 6-7 in non-conference games this year; they’re 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Drake hasn’t played in 10 days. Abilene Christian hasn’t played in nine days; they lost four of last five games, are 4-5 in non-league games. Wildcats are 0-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200. ACU is #79 experience team- they turn ball over 20.3% of time.

Tuesday
Radford (-4) vs LIU
LIU won its last five games, Radford won its last seven; Blackbirds finished T4 in NEC- they want to play fast (#39 pace). Radford plays slow (#346 pace); they finished T2 in Big South. LIU is 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 200; their SOS is #317- both their guards are sophomores. Radford was last in NCAA in ’09; their G’s are frosh/senior. Blackbirds were in NCAAs in 2011-13, going 0-3. Radford was last in NCAA’s in ’09. Last seven years, underdogs are 8-4-1 vs spread in 16-seed play-in games. NEC teams are 3-2 in play-in games; Big South teams are 2-1.

UCLA (-3.5) vs St Bonaventure
St Bonaventure played in this arena Jan 3, losing by 10 to the Dayton Flyers; they’re in NCAA’s for first time since ’12. Bonnies finished 2nd in A-14 this year; they’re #32 experience team, with pair of senior G’s- they won 13 of last 14 games, are 10-2 outside A-14, 7-4 vs top 100 teams. UCLA is #263 experience team; they play pace #57, and finished 3rd in Pac-12. Bruins lost three of last five games; they’re 9-3 outside Pac-12, 12-9 vs top 100 teams- they shoot 38.3% on arc and take lot of them. UCLA’s PG is a junior. Favorites are 7-7 vs spread in 11-seed play-in games, 4-0 the last two years.

Wednesday
Texas Southern (-4) vs North Carolina Central
Texas Southern started this season 0-13 with a ridiculous streak of guarantee games against big-name teams; 11 of the 13 teams are ranked in top 120. Tigers are in NCAA’s for 4th time in five years; they’re coached by former Indiana coach Davis, start frosh/soph G’s. TSU won its last seven games, North Carolina Central won its last five. NCC finished 6th in MEAC; they play slow (#320) pace, TSU plays fast (#35). Eagles start two freshman G’s. NCC is 16-11 vs teams ranked below #200- they beat SWAC’s Southern 80-67. MEAC teams are 3-4 in play-in games; SWAC teams are 1-7.

Arizona State (-1) vs Syracuse
Syracuse won its first NCAA tourney game last seven times they were in, with last first-round loss in ’06 to Texas A&M, but they were usually a very high seed. Orange did get to Final Four as a 10-seed two years ago. Syracuse finished T10 in ACC this year; they play slow (#342) pace, are 3-5 in last eight games- their bench plays fewest minutes in country- they have no senior starters. Arizona State went 8-11 in Pac-12 after being 12-0 at Christmas; they lost five of last six games, start three seniors. Sun Devils play fast (#36) pace. ASU is 10-9 vs top 100 teams; Syracuse is 5-9 vs top 50 teams.




NCAAB

Monday, March 12

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Trend Report
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CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ IPFW
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Central Michigan's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Central Michigan's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games

ABILENE CHRISTIAN @ DRAKE
Drake is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
Drake is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home


HARTFORD @ SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games