Tweet
Sunday's Best Bet
March 3, 2018
Sunday College Basketball Best Bet
Cincinnati Bearcats at Wichita State Shockers
While there are a few conference tournament championship games on Sunday, it's a battle for regular season supremacy that's got me intrigued as the Bearcats and Shockers meet for the second and final time this regular season.
Wichita State took the first meeting 76-72 in Cincinnati as 6-point road underdogs, and with a win on their home court on Sunday they'll be tied with the Bearcats atop the AAC standings but will own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Those kind of stakes mean we should see a playoff-type atmosphere in this game as it should be a great season-finale contest in the AAC.
Odds: Wichita State -1.5, Total 143.5
If Cincinnati wants to maintain their top spot, win the conference title and earn a season split with Wichita State, they'll have to improve drastically on defense compared to the first meeting. Wichita State shot 52.9% from the field in that first meeting, went 8-for-18 from 3-point land, and hit one fewer free throw then the Bearcats in the four-point win. All in all it was a disastrous performance defensively for the Bearcats, but thankfully there is plenty of good news in that regard for the return meeting.
Improving on defense shouldn't be too hard for a Cincinnati team that enters the weekend 2nd in the country in terms of FG percentage allowed (36.9%). The Bearcats have relied on their strong defensive play all year long and the 57.2 points allowed per game ranks 2nd in the country as well.
The loss to the Shockers earlier this year was more of an outlier than the norm for this Bearcats defense, and given what's on the line for both teams here, look for that Cincinnati defense to step up and have one of their better outings of the year.
Wichita State would prefer to push the pace when they can, but they've got to know that Cincinnati will look to bog this game down every chance they get. The Shockers aren't likely to shoot 50+% again against the #2 ranked defense in the land, so Wichita is going to have to rely on their own defense to hold down the fort as well. That unit could have done better in Cincinnati too, as the Bearcats shot 48.1% from the field themselves, and considering Cincinnati averages just 45.8% from the floor on the whole.
Cincinnati really is an average offensive team, and the Bearcats flaws on that end of the court do tend to show up in big games. Cincinnati's two losses in conference play came against this Shockers team and the Houston Cougars - #2 and #3 in AAC standings – and when the Bearcats are out in hostile territory it's almost always the defense that leads them to success rather than the offense lighting it up.
So with that in mind and this game likely too close to call, I'm looking at this total as being a shade too high for this contest given the magnitude of the situation and defensive skill on the floor. Yes, the first game went 'over' the number, but even with those tremendous shooting percentages form both sides, it still was only seven points above the closing total of 141. Drop both teams shooting percentages dramatically here, even to just their season averages, and this total will have a tough time being reached.
Outside of their road game @ Houston (which did cash an 'under' ticket by the way), the Bearcats have allowed 49, 51, 57, 48, 38, 55, and 53 points in all of their conference road games this year. Even Houston only managed 67 points in a home win over the Bearcats in a game that stayed 'under' the total after the first meeting in Cincinnati easily surpassed the total. Sound familiar?
If the Bearcats are able to keep that trend going of holding AAC opponents to less than 60 points on their own floor, I don't see how this game sails 'over' the number without an overtime period or two. That's always going to be a concern given the battle these two could find themselves in, but with Wichita State's 10-0 O/U run currently propping up this total a bit higher than it should be, I've got no problem going the other way in a defensive-minded, tournament-type atmosphere, slugfest game between these two.
Best Bet: Under 143.5
March 3, 2018
Sunday College Basketball Best Bet
Cincinnati Bearcats at Wichita State Shockers
While there are a few conference tournament championship games on Sunday, it's a battle for regular season supremacy that's got me intrigued as the Bearcats and Shockers meet for the second and final time this regular season.
Wichita State took the first meeting 76-72 in Cincinnati as 6-point road underdogs, and with a win on their home court on Sunday they'll be tied with the Bearcats atop the AAC standings but will own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Those kind of stakes mean we should see a playoff-type atmosphere in this game as it should be a great season-finale contest in the AAC.
Odds: Wichita State -1.5, Total 143.5
If Cincinnati wants to maintain their top spot, win the conference title and earn a season split with Wichita State, they'll have to improve drastically on defense compared to the first meeting. Wichita State shot 52.9% from the field in that first meeting, went 8-for-18 from 3-point land, and hit one fewer free throw then the Bearcats in the four-point win. All in all it was a disastrous performance defensively for the Bearcats, but thankfully there is plenty of good news in that regard for the return meeting.
Improving on defense shouldn't be too hard for a Cincinnati team that enters the weekend 2nd in the country in terms of FG percentage allowed (36.9%). The Bearcats have relied on their strong defensive play all year long and the 57.2 points allowed per game ranks 2nd in the country as well.
The loss to the Shockers earlier this year was more of an outlier than the norm for this Bearcats defense, and given what's on the line for both teams here, look for that Cincinnati defense to step up and have one of their better outings of the year.
Wichita State would prefer to push the pace when they can, but they've got to know that Cincinnati will look to bog this game down every chance they get. The Shockers aren't likely to shoot 50+% again against the #2 ranked defense in the land, so Wichita is going to have to rely on their own defense to hold down the fort as well. That unit could have done better in Cincinnati too, as the Bearcats shot 48.1% from the field themselves, and considering Cincinnati averages just 45.8% from the floor on the whole.
Cincinnati really is an average offensive team, and the Bearcats flaws on that end of the court do tend to show up in big games. Cincinnati's two losses in conference play came against this Shockers team and the Houston Cougars - #2 and #3 in AAC standings – and when the Bearcats are out in hostile territory it's almost always the defense that leads them to success rather than the offense lighting it up.
So with that in mind and this game likely too close to call, I'm looking at this total as being a shade too high for this contest given the magnitude of the situation and defensive skill on the floor. Yes, the first game went 'over' the number, but even with those tremendous shooting percentages form both sides, it still was only seven points above the closing total of 141. Drop both teams shooting percentages dramatically here, even to just their season averages, and this total will have a tough time being reached.
Outside of their road game @ Houston (which did cash an 'under' ticket by the way), the Bearcats have allowed 49, 51, 57, 48, 38, 55, and 53 points in all of their conference road games this year. Even Houston only managed 67 points in a home win over the Bearcats in a game that stayed 'under' the total after the first meeting in Cincinnati easily surpassed the total. Sound familiar?
If the Bearcats are able to keep that trend going of holding AAC opponents to less than 60 points on their own floor, I don't see how this game sails 'over' the number without an overtime period or two. That's always going to be a concern given the battle these two could find themselves in, but with Wichita State's 10-0 O/U run currently propping up this total a bit higher than it should be, I've got no problem going the other way in a defensive-minded, tournament-type atmosphere, slugfest game between these two.
Best Bet: Under 143.5
Comment