The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

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NBA says referees missed LeBron goaltending call in Game 5
April 26, 2018

CLEVELAND (AP) The NBA said LeBron James' block in the closing seconds of Game 5 on Indiana's Victor Oladipo should have been called goaltending.

In the league's Last Two Minute Report posted Thursday, the NBA said the three officials missed the call with 5.1 seconds left. The league said the video shows James blocked Oladipo's shot ''after it makes contact with the backboard.''

Under league rules, the play could not be reviewed because it wasn't called on the floor. James then hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Cavaliers a 98-95 win and a 3-2 lead in the series.

The Pacers did not contest the block while on the floor, but later in their locker room they complained about the no-call.

The NBA's report also said the Pacers were incorrectly awarded the ball on a play with 27.6 seconds left. The ball went off Indiana's Thaddeus Young and went out of bounds, but the referees gave the ball to Indiana.

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Close-knit Pacers' bond gets tested with season on the line
April 26, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) The Indiana Pacers have been winning together, losing together and fighting together all season.

Now they need to demonstrate their resilience once more as they try to save their season by rebounding from an emotional loss to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

''Nobody thought we'd be in this situation,'' Victor Oladipo said, referring to the playoffs. ''It's important for us to stick together now because we've seen where it can go, where it can take us and it's great.''

The immediate problem is recent history doesn't bode well for the underdog Pacers, who trail 3-2 with Game 5 set for Friday in Indianapolis.

Cleveland swept Indiana in the first round last year, winning four games by a record low 16 total points. James has won 10 straight close-out games and has never lost a first-round series. Indiana, meanwhile, is trying to reach the conference semifinals for the first time since 2014.

But the Pacers don't care about stats, projections or conventional wisdom - as they've proven repeatedly this season.

Following last summer's Paul George trade, Indiana seemed bound for the draft lottery. Instead, general manager Kevin Pritchard cobbled together a rare combination of proven, often overlooked veterans, emerging stars, good shooters and willing defenders.

It turned out to be a perfect fit.

Indiana won 48 games, six more than it did with George last season, and is a win away from forcing the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs into a decisive seventh game.

Cleveland has learned one lesson the hard way: The fifth-seeded Pacers won't go away. They won 12 times after facing double-digit deficits and eight times after trailing by 15 or more during the regular season.

So perhaps it should come as no surprise Indiana has erased double-digit deficits in four straight game and wound up taking the lead or having a chance to win late in all four in this series.

''That team does not quit,'' James said, moments after his buzzer-beating 3-pointer gave Cleveland a 98-95 win to salvage a win Wednesday after Pacers wiped out a 12-point second half to deficit to tie the score in the final minute.

Playing hard until the final buzzer has become the norm for these Pacers.

And they're savoring every precious second, too.

Nate McMillan recently called this one of the most enjoyable seasons he's had as a head coach because he knows what he'll get every day - energy from Oladipo and Lance Stephenson, steadiness from Darren Collison and Corey Joseph, leadership from Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic and an eagerness to develop from Myles Turner and other young players.

With each player embracing their role, the Pacers have formed a cohesive bond.

Six players actually approached Pritchard before the trade deadline and pleaded with the GM not to make any moves because they wanted to close out this season together. Pritchard said it a first for him, and kept the team intact.

''It kind of is like a college team bond,'' said Young, one of the six players who approached Pritchard. ''Typically you have a lot of NBA teams that don't bond as well as you do in college when you're living with each other and you're around each other all the time. You know in the NBA, you spend time with your family, things like that.

''This team we all hang out together, we go to dinner together on the road. We do everything together.''

The difference has shown.

After enduring an early and sometimes uneven learning curve early this season, the Pacers finally got in sync in early January and played better than anyone, perhaps even McMillan or Pritchard could have anticipated.

From Jan. 6 through the end of the regular season, they went 29-15 and allowed 101.3 points per game and didn't lose more than two in a row.

They moved up three spots in the Eastern Conference postseason pecking order and headed into their latest round against James having won three of the four regular-season matchups. The Pacers even routed the Cavs on their home court in Game 1.

Since then, though, the series has been all-out slugfest and James has gotten the knockout blow in three times.

Now, with their season on the line, the Pacers need to provide a unified front one more time Friday night just to keep this season alive.

They're ready.

''Sure, we've still got something to prove. No one believes we can beat Cleveland,'' Bogdanovic said. ''It's about trust in what we've got in each other.''

[StarDust Bum]

Stephen Curry back in full practice mode for Warriors
April 26, 2018

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Stephen Curry resumed full practice with contact and could play for the defending champion Golden State Warriors as soon as Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals Saturday night against New Orleans.

Curry looked strong as he practiced Thursday wearing a protective brace over his sprained left knee, which has sidelined him since the injury March 23 - the same day he returned from a six-game absence because of a hurt right ankle.

Coach Steve Kerr is calling Curry questionable for Saturday. That could change if the two-time NBA MVP still feels fine Friday and is fine after one more day of full practice before the Pelicans visit Oracle Arena to begin the best-of-seven series.

''Steph practiced at 100 percent, he did everything, he looked good,'' Kerr said. ''What we have to do is see how his body responds the rest of the day, put him through another practice tomorrow. I think he needs to string together two good days but it was very positive today. ... I think it's been coming along pretty well. When we were in San Antonio and I was asked a question about how he was doing, I think I was able to give an answer, `He's doing great but we haven't ramped him up yet.' I think today was an important day because it's the first time he's actually gone live action and he was allowed to go through practice. And he appears fine.''

Curry went through his usual shooting work with Kevin Durant from various spots after practice, cutting and exhibiting his fancy footwork and dribbling skills. The Warriors have played well without their floor leader, eliminating the San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of the first-round series with a 99-91 win Tuesday night.

The Pelicans will present a different, faster pace for the Warriors, so getting Curry back to push the ball and direct the offense would be important. Andre Iguodala, the 2015 NBA Finals MVP, started in the first round in his place while Quinn Cook handled point guard duties late in the regular season with Curry out.

''We're excited. I know he's very eager to play,'' said Klay Thompson. ''He's a competitor, so sitting out I know kills him. We can't wait for him to get back whenever that is.''

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Tips
April 26, 2018

Eastern Conference – Game 6 (Raptors lead 3-2)
Toronto at Washington (NBATV, 7:05 p.m. ET)

-- Toronto (62-25 straight up, 46-40-1 against the spread) took a 3-2 series lead by capturing a 108-98 win as a seven-point home ‘chalk.’ The 206 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 216-point total. With 3:40 remaining, the Raptors went on a 12-0 run to extend their lead from one to 13 before Bradley Beal’s 3-pointer with 16.7 ticks left. Just like in a Game 1 loss, Washington went cold offensively at crunch time and its backers paid for it. In the series opener, gamblers on the Wizards merely saw what they thought was going to be a winner turn into a push. But on Thursday night, bettors on the underdog were six points ahead of the number with less than four minutes remaining and had to taste a defeat.

-- DeMar DeRozan was the catalyst for Toronto in the Game 5 triumph, producing 32 points and five assists. DeRozan hit 12-of-24 field-goal attempts and drained 3-of-4 launches from downtown. Delon Wright came off the bench and contributed 18 points, five rebounds, two steals and one blocked shot. Kyle Lowry added 17 points, three steals, two rebounds and 10 assists compared to only one turnover, while Jonas Valanciunas had a double-double with 14 points, 13 rebounds, two blocked shots and two assists without a turnover.

-- John Wall scored 26 points, grabbed nine rebounds, dished out nine assists and blocked three shots in Thursday’s losing effort. Beal finished with 20 points, four boards and three assists, while Kelly Oubre, Jr. had 14 points thanks to 7-of-7 shooting at the free-throw line. Marcin Gortat had 10 points, 12 boards, two assists and one blocked shot. The Wizards enjoyed a 50-35 rebounding advantage, crashing the glass for 14 offensive boards, but they were an abysmal 5-of-26 (19.2%) from 3-point land.

-- As of early Thursday night, most betting shops had Washington (45-42 SU, 39-47-1 ATS) installed as a two-point favorite for Friday’s Game 6 in D.C. The total was 214.5 points. For first-half wagers, the Wizards were favored by one point with the total at 109.5.

-- Scott Brooks’s squad is 25-18 SU and 18-24-1 ATS at home. However, Washington captured back-to-back home wins over Toronto both SU and ATS in Games 3 and 4. The Wizards won Game 3 by a 122-103 count as one-point home ‘chalk’ thanks to 28 points apiece from Beal and Wall, the former one-and-done player at Kentucky who tallied seven rebounds, four steals and handed out 14 helpers compared to just three turnovers. They won a 106-98 decision in Game 4 as 1.5-point home underdogs. Beal, who scored 31 points on 5-of-7 shooting from long distance, fouled out with 4:58 remaining. With Beal on the bench fuming (at first) and then joyously rooting his teammates on, Wall took over down the stretch and finished with 27 points, 14 assists, six rebounds and four steals.

-- Dwane Casey’s club is 25-18 SU and 22-21 ATS on the road this season.

-- Sportsbook.ag has the updated series price with Toronto as a -850 ‘chalk.’ The Wizards are +600 underdogs to rally and win the final two games of this best-of-seven set.

-- The ‘over’ hit in the first three games of this series, but the ‘under’ has now made back-to-back appearances in Games 4 and 5.

-- The ‘over’ is 44-42-1 overall for the Raptors, 23-19 in their road assignments.

-- The ‘under’ is 46-39-2 overall for the Wizards, 21-21-1 in their home outings.

-- Even though Washington has dominated at home in the playoffs recently, Chris David of VegasInsider.com is staying away from the side and focusing more on the total in Game 6.

He explained, “It’s hard to argue against Washington at home but I believe the better play is on the ‘under’ for Friday. The Wizards have won eight straight dating back to last year’s playoffs and while the offense gets most of the attention, the defense (98.8 PPG) has been exceptional. The ‘under’ has gone 5-3 during this stretch and the last two games in this series have only seen 204 combined points scored.”

“If you believe Toronto will close out the series in win Game 6, then I would tell you to press my lean on the ‘under’ again. Since the Raptors made a return to the playoffs in 2014, Toronto has gone 5-15 SU and 6- 14 ATS as a visitor and defense has been the key factor. In the five wins, the Raptors allowed 84 PPG while surrendering an eye-opening 107.9 PPG in the losses,” added David.

The team totals for both the Wizards and Raptors are sitting at 106 ½.

Eastern Conference – Game 6 (Cavaliers lead 3-2)
Cleveland at Indiana (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

-- Trailing this Eastern Conference first-round series 3-2, Indiana returns home Friday night to take on Cleveland in Game 6. As of early Thursday night, most books had the Pacers listed as one-point favorites with a total of 204.

-- Cleveland (53-34 SU, 33-53-1 ATS) won a 98-95 decision in Game 5 thanks to LeBron James’s game-winning buzzer beater in Wednesday’s Game 5 at Quicken Loans Arena. However, the Pacers covered the number as six-point underdogs. The 193 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 206-point total. The Cavaliers outscored Indiana 32-17 in the third quarter to take an 81-73 advantage after being down seven at intermission. James was nothing short of sensational, producing 44 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, one steal and one blocked shot. James buried 14-of-24 FGAs and all 15 of his free throws. Kyle Korver added 19 points by drilling 5-of-9 treys, while Kevin Love contributed 11 points and 10 rebounds. The Cavs made 26-of-27 FTAs.

-- Indiana (50-37 SU, 51-36 ATS) went on a 6-0 run at crunch time to pull even on a FT-line jumper from Domantas Sabonis with 33 seconds remaining. Then James committed a turnover with 26.3 ticks left to give the Pacers a chance to steal Game 5 on the road. Victor Oladipo drove hard to the rim but was rejected by James with three seconds left, or was he? Replays clearly showed that Oladipo’s shot hit the backboard first before James blocked it. This should’ve resulted in a goaltending call, but that didn’t happen and James hit the game winner after a timeout was called.

-- Sabonis scored a team-best 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field in the Game 5 setback. The son of Arvidas Sabonis, the legendary Russian player who had an outstanding run with the Portland Trail Blazers despite not getting to the NBA until he was in his 30s and on the downside of his career due to multiple knee surgeries, Domantas also had five rebounds, two assists and one steal. Thaddeus Young had 16 points and six boards, while Lance Stephenson finished with 12 points and four assists compared to only one turnover. Oladipo had 12 points, 12 rebounds and four assists, but he was an atrocious 2-of-15 from the field. Oladipo made just 5-of-20 FGAs in Game 4, so he’s due (or better start hitting some shots if his team is going to force a Game 7) to break out of his shooting slump Friday night.

-- Sportsbook.ag has the Cavs as -700 ‘chalk’ for the updated series price. The Pacers are +500 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $500).

-- Through the first five games of the series, James has carried his team by averaging 34.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocked shots per game. He has a 40/18 assist-to-turnover ratio and has knocked down 55.0 percent of his FGAs and 82.5 percent of his FTs.

-- The ‘under’ has been a winner in all five games in this series to date. Going back to the regular season, the ‘under’ is 7-0-1 in the past eight games in this rivalry.

-- The ‘under’ is 54-32-1 overall for the Pacers, 27-16 in their home games.

-- The ‘under’ is 46-39-2 overall for the Cavs, 22-21 in their road assignments.

-- VI’s David offered up his thoughts on the Game 6 total between the Pacers and Cavaliers: David said, Even though the ‘under’ has cashed in the first five games of this series and is 7-1-1 in the nine meetings between the pair this season, the ‘over’ did have chances in a couple of games in this series. The pace hasn’t been fast and that’s a key factor but the main reason for the ‘under’ tickets is shooting percentages, especially in the second-halves.”

David continued, “We’ve seen the pair average 89 combined points in the second-half of this series and that’s led to a 5-0 ‘under’ record for savvy bettors playing the low side in the final 24 minutes. Despite seeing the ‘under’ run, I would’ve expected the total to drop but it’s held steady and that makes me believe an ‘over’ winner wouldn’t be surprising. Plus, the possibility of facing elimination for the Pacers could have the game extended.”

Western Conference – Game 6 (Jazz lead 3-2)
Oklahoma City at Utah (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

-- Utah (51-36 SU, 46-41 ATS) allowed a 25-point third-quarter lead to get away in Wednesday’s Game 5 at Oklahoma City. Sparked by the remarkable play of Russell Westbrook and Paul Georgia, the Thunder rallied to not only win and extend its season, but to also take the money as a 2.5-point home favorite in a 107-99 win. The 206 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 207.5-point total.

-- Westbrook went nuts in the second half, fueling the comeback that had the home fans in a frenzy. The UCLA product produced 45 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists. Westbrook drained 5-of-9 attempts from 3-point land. George had 34 points, eight rebounds, two assists, two steals and one blocked shot. On the flip side, the rapidly aging Carmelo Anthony didn’t offer up much assistance. He scored seven points, pulled down five rebounds and had a pair of steals. Anthony, who is averaging 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.0 SPG in the series to date, has made only 36.9 percent of his FGAs and 21.4 percent of his 3-balls against the Jazz.

-- Utah had six players in double figures in the Game 5 defeat. Jae Crowder was sensational with 27 points, eight rebounds, three assists and one steal. The mid-season acquisition from the Celtics hit six 3-pointers to help his team to the monster lead that would go to waste. Donovan Mitchell, who has averaged 26.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.6 SPG in the series, had 23 points, five rebounds, three assists, three steals and one blocked shot. Joe Ingles finished with 16 points and Rudy Gobert tallied 11 points, 10 boards and a pair of rejections.

-- As of early Thursday night, most spots had Utah listed as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 206. The Thunder were available to win outright for a +220 payout (risk $100 to win $220).

-- Quin Snyder’s squad owns a 30-13 SU record and a 24-19 ATS mark at home this season.

-- OKC (50-37 SU, 36-50-1 ATS) is 21-21 SU and 18-24 ATS on the road.

-- Utah is the -450 favorite to win this best-of-seven series at Sportsbook.ag, leaving the Thunder at +355 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $355).

-- The ‘under’ cashed in all four regular-season meetings between these teams, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in this series to date.

-- The ‘under’ is 48-39 overall for OKC, 23-20 in its road outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 44-42-1 overall for the Jazz, 25-18 in its home games. However, the ‘over’ hit in Games 3 and 4 in Salt Lake City.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Best Bets
April 26, 2018

Friday NBA Playoffs Best Bets

We are reaching the end of the first round of the 2018 NBA playoffs and all three Game 6's that hit the floor on Friday night should be intriguing. Toronto, Cleveland, and Utah all have the opportunity to advance to Round 2 with a victory, and with the former two teams trying to do so on the road, the hostile atmospheres will be something tough for them to deal with.

Utah on the other hand has their own issues to deal with after blowing a 20+ point 3rd quarter lead in Game 5 as they sat back and watch Russell Westbrook and Paul George take over the game. Oklahoma City looked down and out, off-season travel plans in tow, but their comeback showed that at least some guys on that team weren't ready to be done. The Jazz are back at home for Game 6 and probably have to close it out in this game to move on, but how they respond to blowing that huge lead will be a huge storyline for Game 6.

So with three big games on tap, where should your money be going? Here is where mine will be:

Best Bet #1: Toronto +2 and ML (+110)

This is a series that's been dominated by the home team so far (home teams are 5-0 SU and ATS) which is a little surprising given it's the 1 vs 8 matchup. But this Toronto Raptors team has looked more like the one of year's past rather then the one that earned the #1 seed this year, as they've not put Washington away until late in the 4th quarter of their three wins, and they've looked like a team that simply can't win a playoff game on the road. Performing at a high level away from home in the playoffs has been one of the biggest knocks on this Toronto franchise the past few years and so far in Round 1 it looks like nothing has changed.

However, if Toronto does indeed want to get where they want to go in these playoffs, finding ways to win as visitors is a must and should they advance, it's only going to get harder the rest of the way. #1 seeds are supposed to put away a #8 seed in four or five games and Toronto just hasn't really looked the part. Granted, Washington may not be your typical #8 seed with a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal causing havoc, but they are only two guys. Toronto is a much deeper team then the Wizards and it's that depth that I'm counting on to end this thing in six games.

For one, Toronto's bench has been spoken highly of all year long (for good reason), but they are still a young group that hasn't got a ton of experience this time of year. They really struggled in Games 3 and 4 in Washington, but now that they've gone through that, I'm expecting a much bigger level of comfort to sweep over that unit in Game 6. The starters like DeRozan, Lowry, Ibaka etc, will do their part in containing and keeping pace with Wall and Beal, but it's been Toronto's bench play that has allowed the Raptors to pull away in their home games, and now it's time to do it on the road. G Fred VanFleet could be returning as well, which makes the rotations all the more familiar for Toronto's “bench mob” and it will be them that becomes the difference in Game 6 and sends Toronto onto Round 2.

Best Bet #2: Cleveland +1 and ML (-105)

Speaking of getting to Round 2, I'm looking for the Cleveland Cavaliers to get there as well after Friday night as they look to put the finishing touches on their series with the Pacers. Cleveland may not be the team they've been the past few years, but LeBron has no problem putting this team on his shoulders and carrying the workload. It doesn't hurt that he routinely gets the benefit of the doubt on calls/non-calls as he definitely goaltended Oladipo's layup late in Game 5, but he still hit a three to win it and without question he does not want to see a Game 7 in Round 1.

LeBron and the Cavs have negated Oladipo's scoring since Game 2, and by forcing others on the Pacers to beat them, the Cavs have turned this series around. Yes, all three of Cleveland's wins have been by four points or less and every game since Game 1 has been decided by that margin, but we've yet to see a complete game by Cleveland where LeBron gets plenty of help and when that comes, these close games will end.

The Pacers had to feel like they have blown multiple opportunities in this series to take a stranglehold on the proceedings (Game 4, up 7 at half in Game 5), and I'm not sure this young team who many did not expect to be in this situation at the beginning of the year have really much left in the tank, mentally or physically.

I look for LeBron to put the Cavs on his back early again in Game 6, get some guys going so that he can get some significant help, and put this series to bed.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs continues Friday night with a busy schedule of three Game 6s. The Wizards, Pacers, and Thunder all face elimination at the hands of the Raptors, Cavaliers, and Jazz respectively.

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (-2, 214.5)

The Washington Wizards are confident they can force a do-or-die Game 7 with the Toronto Raptors and they'll get a chance to do just that when they host Game 6 on Friday. "We love our chances," point guard John Wall told reporters of the eighth-seeded Wizards' quest to stave off elimination at home. "We're very confident."

Washington won games 3 and 4 at home before the Raptors seized a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday's 108-98 win in Toronto, but the Wizards are victorious in their last eight playoff games in the nation's capital. DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points and handed out five assists to lead the top-seeded Raptors in the critical Game 5 win. Delon Wright chipped in 18 points in 26 minutes off the bench in the win, eliciting some trash talk from Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. that should add some spice to what has been a contentious series at times. "The next game is a different story," Oubre told the media of Wright. "We're back at home. Just like Delon doesn't play well anywhere else, you know, other than at home. You can kind of chalk it up as the same story."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBATV, ESPNews, Sportsnet (Toronto), NBCS Washington

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Wizards opened as 1-point home favorites with their backs against the wall in Game 6. That number has been nudged up to -2 despite 53 percent of consensus wagers being on the Raptors. The total hit betting boards at 214.5 and has yet to move.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (62-25 SU, 46-40-1 ATS, 44-42-1 O/U): Coach Dwane Casey discovered something down the stretch in Game 5 with an odd grouping of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, C.J. Miles, center Jonas Valanciunas - who had yet to play in the fourth quarter this series - and Wright. "I thought Delon Wright did a good job down the stretch handling the ball," Casey told reporters. "It gave us an opportunity for Kyle and DeMar to get off the ball a little bit more and I thought that was the difference." Valanciunas is averaging 13.4 points on 61.4 percent shooting to go along with 8.8 rebounds in the series.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (45-42 SU, 39-47-1 ATS, 39-46-2 O/U): Oubre, who is 3-of-16 from 3-point range in the series, might gain a larger role if fellow forward Otto Porter Jr. is unable to go. Porter has been wrestling with a bone bruise in his left leg and will be reassessed Friday, and coach Scott Brooks knows he needs more from the Georgetown product, who averaged 14.7 points this season but has been held to single digits three times in the series. "We need Otto to be more than a 9-10 point scorer for us to win this series," Brooks told reporters.

INJURY REPORT:

Raptors - PG F. VanVleet (Questionable, Shoulder).

Wizards - SF O. Porter Jr. (Probable, Leg), SG J. Meeks (Out For Season, Suspension).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Raptors' last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-0 in Wizards' last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.




Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (-1, 204)

As long as LeBron James is on the floor, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to win. James, who beat the buzzer to give his team a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series on Wednesday, will try to lead the Cavaliers into the semifinals when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game 6 on Friday.

James capped off a 44-point, 10-rebound, eight-assist performance by nailing a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Cavaliers a 98-95 victory in Game 5 and their first lead of the series. "As a kid, you always have those 'three-two-one' moments, and being able to have one of those moments, that's what it kind of felt like," James told reporters of the last shot. "Felt like I was a kid all over again. Just playing basketball at my house, makeshift hoops and my socks as a basketball. Making the [swish] noise." James' buzzer-beater came after he swatted away a dunk attempt by Indiana's Victor Oladipo at the other end - a play the NBA declared on Thursday should have been called a goaltend. "It is what it is," Pacers center Myles Turner told reporters. "It was clearly a goaltend. They didn't review it. There's not anything you can say about it. It's frustrating. It doesn't change the fact that LeBron still hit that game-winning shot, but it's still a pivotal moment in the game that I feel does need a review."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS Ohio (Cleveland), FS Indiana

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Pacers opened as 1.5-point home favorites and we saw a little bit of reverse line movement early with the pointspread coming down to -1 despite 61 percent of consensus wagers being on the home favorites. The total hit betting boards at 204.5 and has dropped slightly to 204.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (53-34 SU, 33-53-1 ATS, 39-46-2 O/U): Kevin Love added a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds on Wednesday and felt confident that his teammate was the right person to take the final shot. "We wanted to free up 'Bron as best we could," Love told reporters. "He had to make a read whether to go low or high and caught the ball. He seems to shoot that shot a lot in practice as well as many others; but going to his left and rising without a pump-fake – he was in a good rhythm and hit an amazing shot. It was unbelievable." Kyle Korver was the only other player to score in double figures with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting for Cleveland.

ABOUT THE PACERS (50-37 SU, 51-36 ATS, 32-54-1 O/U): Indiana guard Victor Oladipo started out hot in the series but is struggling over the last three games and was just 2-of-15 from the floor while scoring 12 points on Wednesday. The All-Star is 12-of-50 over the last three contests after going 20-of-37 in the first two games. "The series ain't over," Oladipo told reporters. "You got to win four games for the series to be over, right? So, we got a chance to win on Friday. I don't think anybody is discouraged or upset."

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - PG G. Hill (Questionable, Back).

Pacers - PG J. Young (Questionable, Illness).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers' last 6 overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Pacers' last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings.




Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (-6, 206)

The Oklahoma City Thunder staged a comeback for the ages to avoid elimination and now attempt to tie the first-round series against the host Utah Jazz at three games apiece on Friday. Oklahoma City trailed by 25 points with 20 1/2 minutes to play in Wednesday's Game 5 before roaring back to record a 107-99 victory.

Point guard Russell Westbrook scored 33 of his 45 points and in the second half while Paul George tallied 21 of his 34 after halftime as the unexpected explosion kept the Thunder alive. "It was win or go home," Westbrook told reporters. "Regardless of what is going on in the game, you have to give yourself a chance to win, and I thought our guys did a good job of that. They did an amazing job of sticking together." The Jazz will need to put the epic collapse behind them after it looked like they were on their way to finishing off Oklahoma City in five games. "They made adjustments and we didn't make the right adjustments back," Utah guard Donovan Mitchell told reporters. "We will watch the film and figure out what went wrong, but from my analysis right after the game, we just stopped getting back in transition and they just fed off of that."

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS Oklahoma, AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain (Utah)

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Jazz opened as 5.5-point home favorites and that number has been pushed up slightly to -6 as of Thursday night. 54 percent of consensus early wagers have been on the desperate Thunder. The total hit betting boards at 206 and has yet to move.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (50-37 SU, 36-50-1 ATS, 39-48 O/U): Westbrook didn't even reach 20 points in two of the first four games of the series and was having a ho-hum Game 5 before erupting in MVP-caliber form. Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan was pleased with the reversal in caliber of play but he also made it clear he has no interest in finding himself in a similar situation in Game 6. "I don't look at it like we're carrying any momentum," Donovan told reporters. "We've got to go in there and we've got to play and play better. This is a team that had us down by 25 points. Now, I'm obviously thrilled with the comeback and it was a great job, but you get down 25 points on the road, that's hard to overcome."

ABOUT THE JAZZ (51-36 SU, 46-41 ATS, 42-44-1 O/U): The Utah collapse occurred during a time center Rudy Gobert picked up his fourth foul and then - after an 81-second return - his fifth foul and there was no recovering from the assault. "When Rudy went out, that impacted us. But that said, I thought our struggles on the offensive end impacted our defense too much," Utah coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "We've known during the year if we struggle offensively that our defense has to stay solid. But I thought when they did start making plays and Rudy went out, that we were fighting it, but we didn't execute as well as we needed to offensively." Gobert notched four straight double-doubles and is averaging 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds in the series.

INJURY REPORT:

Thunder - SG Andre Roberson (Out For Season, Knee).

Jazz - SF Thabo Sefolosha (Out For Season, Knee).

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Thunder are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Under is 13-6 in Thunder's last 19 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 12-4 in Jazz's last 16 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, April 27


Toronto @ Washington

Game 509-510
April 27, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
116.283
Washington
120.687
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 4 1/2
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Indiana

Game 511-512
April 27, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
117..302
Indiana
120.411
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 1
204
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-1); Over

Oklahoma City @ Utah

Game 515-516
April 27, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
120.340
Utah
130.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 10
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 6
206
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-6); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, April 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (62 - 25) at WASHINGTON (45 - 42) - 4/27/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 198-249 ATS (-75.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 38-47 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 408-476 ATS (-115.6 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 153-201 ATS (-68.1 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-7 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-5 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (53 - 34) at INDIANA (50 - 37) - 4/27/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
INDIANA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 221-166 ATS (+38.4 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
INDIANA is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 14-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 14-7 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA CITY (50 - 37) at UTAH (51 - 36) - 4/27/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-50 ATS (-20.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
UTAH is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 27

Raptors (3-2) @ Wizards


Home side won all five series games, three of which went over total. Washington is 5-10 in its last 15 games vs Toronto, but Raptors won/covered only once in their last four games in this arena. Toronto won 8 of last 11 games overall; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four away games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games, 6-4 in last ten Wizard games. Washington lost seven of last ten games overall, but they covered their last three home games. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Cavaliers (3-2) @ Pacers

Oladipo is 12-50 from floor in last three series games, after he was 20-37 in first two games. Home side won six of last eight series games; under is 7-0-1 in those games. Cleveland is 1-3 SU/ATS in last four games played here. Cleveland split its last four road games (3-1 vs spread); their last six games overall stayed under total. Indiana split its last four home games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. James had 44 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, 6 assists in Game 5; he needs some help (Smith/Love were 2-19 in Game 5).

Thunder @ Jazz (3-2)

Utah was up 25 in third quarter of Game 5 with chance to close series out, but Thunder stormed back to win game and stay alive. Westbrook/George scored 79 of their 107 points. OKC was -6 with Anthony on floor, +14 with him on bench. Thunder lost last two games in this arena by 17-13 points; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five road games overall. Jazz won nine of last 12 games overall; they won their last five home games, covered last four. Six of last nine series games stayed under.

Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214
Wsh 122-103, -1, O217.5
Wsh 106-98, +1.5, U217
Tor 108-97, -7, U216

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217
Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5
Phil 106-102, -4, U212.5
Phil 104-91, -10, U215.5
76ers win series, 4-1

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200
Mil 116-92, -5, O205.5
Mil 104-102, -5.5, O203.5
Bos 92-87, -4.5, U202.5
Mil 97-86, -4.5, U201.5

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5
Clev 100-97, -8, U209
Ind 92-90, -1.5, U209.5
Clev 104-100, -1.5, U206.5
Clev 98-95, -6.5, U206

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5
GState 116-101, -9 O205.5
GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5
SA 103-90, +5.5, U206.5
GState 99-91, -11, U204.5
Warriors win series, 4-1

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216
NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5
NO 131-123, -6.5, O217
Pelicans win series, 4-0

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205
Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5
Utah 115-102, -5, O209
Utah 113-96, -5, O208
OKC 107-99, -2.5, U207.5

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5
Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5
Minn 121-105, +6, O217
Hst 119-100, -6, O217
Hst 122-104, -12, O217
Rockets win series, 4-1




NBA

Friday, April 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Toronto is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Wizards
Washington is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto


Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Cleveland is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Indiana is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 11 games at home
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Indiana is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma City's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Oklahoma City's last 21 games when playing Utah
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Oklahoma City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Utah's last 16 games
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games at home
Utah is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Utah's last 21 games when playing Oklahoma City
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, APRIL 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at WAS 07:00 PM
WAS -1.5
O 214.5

CLE at IND 08:00 PM
IND -1.0
U 204.0

OKC at UTA 10:30 PM
UTA -6.5
O 207.5

[StarDust Bum]

Pelicans' Holiday playing with 'rage' after finding peace
April 27, 2018

NEW ORLEANS (AP) If it looks like the normally low-key Jrue Holiday has been having the time of his life in the NBA playoffs - from interacting with fans after big shots to, in one instance, mocking an opponent who'd been dunked on - the Pelicans' guard offers an explanation.

''I'm in a really good place. Everything in my life is pretty good - family, basketball, financially,'' Holiday began after practice this week, as the Pelicans prepared for a second-round playoff match-up with Golden State.

''I got a bonus this year, so that's awesome,'' Holiday added, drawing some chuckles as he referred to his whopping, five-year, $126 million contract last offseason. ''I mean, yeah. I feel pretty good.''

Once upon a time, Holiday was a young Eastern Conference All-Star guard with Philadelphia who seemed to possess a world of potential. A draft-day trade in 2013 paired him with emerging star big man Anthony Davis in New Orleans, but during the next four years, one thing or another conspired against him.

During his first season with the Pelicans, he developed a stress fracture in his lower leg that required surgery, but one of the screws used to repair the fracture became an irritant, forcing additional procedures. That wiped out much of his first two seasons. He returned on minute restrictions in his third season and showed promise, only to have that campaign cut short by a fluky eye injury caused by an inadvertent elbow to the head.

Holiday was finally healthy heading into his fourth season in New Orleans - but his wife, former U.S. Soccer star Lauren Holiday, was not. She was diagnosed with a brain tumor while pregnant with the couple's first child, and Holiday took an extended leave of absence to attend to family.

Now the 6-foot-4 Holiday looks reinvigorated by a recent convergence of positive trends in his life.

In addition to being content with his family life and career trajectory, he's also about as healthy as he's been in half a decade, and his team is in the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Now he can focus purely on winning and being as feisty as it takes to do so.

''I always feel like I'm aggressive, but (playoff) games are a little different where you can key in on a certain team and be able to study them for a long time because you know you have at least four games,'' Holiday explained. ''Mentally, just locking in to the matchup or the schemes or whatever it is, brings out a little more intensity.''

Holiday was a big reason the sixth-seeded Pelicans swept third-seeded Portland in the first round of the postseason. He scored 33 points in Game 2 and 41 points in the clinching Game 4. His performances have been dynamic. He's made big perimeter shots, such as his late 3-pointer in Game 4, and he's been a strong finisher at the rim. He shot about 57 percent for the series.

Defensively, he helped hold Portland All-Star guard Damian Lillard in check and came up with pivotal, late-game steals or blocks.

''I know what type of player he's been since he's been here, but I think this has been a great year for him,'' Davis said. ''People are really starting to notice.''

Davis and fellow teammates have been particularly amused by the transformation of Holiday's on-court persona, and won't say a word to discourage it.

Holiday has rarely been all that animated on the court or much of a trash talker. But against Portland his gesticulations - or his eagerness to sprint into scuffles after a hard foul- were impossible to miss.

''I have no idea where that came from, talking smack to the fans. I've never seen it,'' Davis said. ''I love it. If he can keep getting 40 for us then I'll make him mad every game.

On a more serious note, Davis added, ''I think everybody just recognized the type of team that we have and realized that we can be something special, so it just brings a lot out in everybody.''

Veteran guard Rajon Rondo, long known to exchange verbal barbs with opponents, grinned when he recalled Holiday pointing at Jusuf Nurkic after Davis had dunked on the Portland center in Game 3.

''It's just a different side of him. He's playing with a lot of rage,'' Rondo said. ''He's overlooked a lot. What he's doing now, the world's finally seeing the real Jrue Holiday and I love every minute of it.

''He's still a smooth player,'' Rondo continued. ''But when he has a mentality of attacking and no one can stay in front of him and he can score against anyone, I think that's when we're at our best.''

[StarDust Bum]

Oladipo, Pacers force Cavaliers to Game 7 with 121-87 rout
April 27, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Victor Oladipo scored 28 points and posted the first postseason triple-double of his career Friday night, leading the Indiana Pacers to a 121-87 blowout over the Cleveland Cavaliers to even the series at three.

Game 7 will be played Sunday in Cleveland.

The three-time defending Eastern Conference champs again were led by LeBron James with 22 points, seven assists and five rebounds despite sitting out the entire fourth quarter. Nobody else scored more than 13 points as the Cavaliers lost their first closeout game in 14 tries dating to 2009. James had won 11 consecutive closeout games and is 12-0 all-time in the first-round series.

Kevin Love hurt his left wrist on a hard fall midway through the second quarter and wound up scoring just seven points while shooting 3 of 10 from the field.

RAPTORS 102, WIZARDS 92

WASHINGTON (AP) - Toronto overcame a halftime deficit in a road playoff game for the first time in 24 tries, using 24 points from Kyle Lowry and a tremendous effort from its finally whole second unit to beat Washington in Game 6 and end the Eastern Conference first-round series.

Toronto trailed by as many as 12 points in the first quarter and was down 53-50 at the end of the second. The Raptors' first lead did not come until the third quarter, and they were back down by five points entering the final period.

But with star guards Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, who had a personal series-low 16 points, resting to begin the fourth, reserves led by point guard Fred VanVleet turned around the game. Bothered by a bad right shoulder, VanVleet had played a total of three minutes in the series until Friday, but he was just what Toronto needed in this game, with five points, four assists and four rebounds

John Wall had 23 points and eight assists in Game 6. Bradley Beal led Washington with 32 points. But the Wizards' run of eight home playoff wins in a row came to a close.

[StarDust Bum]

JAZZ 96 OKC 91


************************

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY APRIL 28, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:00 PM Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics TD Garden
10:30 PM New Orleans Pelicans Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena


**********************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/27/2018 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
04/26/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/25/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
04/24/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +9.00
04/23/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
04/22/2018 1-7-0 12.50% -33.50
04/21/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
04/20/2018 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/19/2018 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
04/18/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +900
04/16/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/15/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
04/14/2018 1-6-1 14.29% -28.00

TOTALS.........33-49-1........40.24%.....-99.00

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack

— Ole Miss transfer QB Shea Patterson is eligible to play at Michigan this fall.

— AL Central is 21-49 outside the division so far this season.

— Colorado Rockies won 1-0 in Miami Friday night, just their 20th-ever 1-0 win, which is the fewest in MLB since 1993.

— Steelers drafted Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph; is he Big Ben’s successor?

— New Pitt basketball coach Jeff Capel hired his brother Jeff as an assistant coach.

— Jason Witten will retire from the Cowboys and be the analyst on Monday Night Football this fall.

Quotes of the Day
“Hey Dallas! The last time you were in a Super Bowl, these draft picks weren’t BORN!”
Former Eagles kicker David Akers, at the NFL Draft in Dallas

Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jason Witten play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
Paul Tagliabue was commissioner of the NFL before Roger Goodell.

Thursday’s quiz
Cleveland Browns are 2-41 in their last 43 games; Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin III were the Browns’ starting QB’s in those two wins.


**********************


Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

13) Utah Jazz led Oklahoma City by 25 in Game 5 of their series before the Thunder came back and won Game 5 of their series.

A guy in Las Vegas had $4,000 on the Thunder (-2.5); he tossed the ticket in the trash when Utah got up by 25, and he had to do some mad scrambling thru the garbage to get the ticket back after OKC stormed back for the win/cover.

Luckily for him, a) the trash hadn’t been emptied and b) he found the ticket.

12) In the 6th inning Wednesday nite, Tampa Bay Rays put a lefty reliever named Jonny Venters in to face lefty slugger Chris Davis. No big deal; that stuff happens over and over all throughout baseball. Lefty vs lefty. One batter. Venters retired Davis on four pitches.

But this was different; Venters hadn’t appeared in a major league game in six years, or 2,008 games; he was 15-10, 2.25 in 230 games for the Braves from 2010-12.

Since then, Venters has had three Tommy John surgeries on his left elbow; the hours and hours of rehab he went through—- there had to be times he thought Wednesday night would never come, but now he is back in the major leagues. Good for him.

11) Carolina Panthers took WR DJ Moore with the 24th pick Thursday night; the kid had 8 QB’s in his three years playing WR at Maryland. Eight QB’s in three years is an awful lot.

Norv Turner is the Panthers’ new OC; Cam Newton will be a fascinating follow this season.

10) Eagles got an extra 2nd round pick in 2019 for dropping down 20 spots in this draft so the Ravens could take Lamar Jackson.

9) Cal-Riverside has a new basketball coach (David Patrick); one of the Highlanders’ new assistant coaches is Mike Magpayo, who at one time was the CEO of a multimillion dollar real estate firm in SoCal.

8) Seattle’s Jean Segura has come to bat with a man on 3rd base 10 times this season; he knocked that runner in all 10 times.

7) Players who have come to bat with most men on base this season (thru Thursday):
Khris Davis 94, Didi Gregorius 86, Giancarlo Stanton 85, Marcell Ozuna 84

6) Players who have driven in the highest %age of baserunners this season (min 50 PA):
Brad Miller 33.3%, David Peralta 32.4%, Preston Tucker 28.3%, Nick Ahmed, 27.8%

5) Portland Trailblazers had an excellent season, going 49-33, but now they’ve lost their last 10 playoff games so you hope it doesn’t cost coach Terry Stotts his job.

4) Dodgers/Kershaw were -$380 to beat the Marlins Wednesday night; they lost. Long time ago, I read something that said laying anything more than $-150 in baseball is a bad idea. Whether that is still true or not I’m not sure, but laying more than -$200 isn’t wise.

3) Miami Dolphins drafted TE Mike Gesicki in the 2nd round; for some reason. NFL Network showed highlights of Gesicki playing high school basketball— he scored over 1,800 points in HS, which is nice, but its a football draft.

2) It is April 28 and national baseball writers are already speculating on where stars on struggling teams or small market teams will be traded to. As an A’s fan, few things make my blood boil as quickly as this, like Oakland, Tampa Bay and the Orioles are bleepin’ farm clubs for the %$#@& rich teams.

1) Umpire Will Little worked home plate in April 21’s Toronto-New York game, the 8th time in last four years Little has done the plate in a Bronx Bomber game. Here is how those games went:

2015
Bronx W5-2 @ Baltimore +$123 U9

Bronx W3-1 @ Seattle -$115 U7

2016
Bronx W6-3 vs Tampa Bay +$103 O8
Bronx W7-3 vs Kansas City -$130 O8

2017
Bronx W3-2 vs St Louis +$123, U8

Bronx W3-2 vs Oakland -$145, U9.5
Bronx W7-4 @ Baltimore +$121, O9.5

2018
Bronx W9-1 vs Toronto -$148, O9

8-0, outscoring opponents 43-18, and they were an underdog four times. Not going to say another bleeping word except this: if you were a big league manager, would you want Will Little umping the plate in a game against the Bronx Bombers?

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Playoff Tips
April 27, 2018

Eastern Conference – Game 7 (Series Tied 3-3)
Milwaukee at Boston (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

The Celtics and Bucks will square off in a decisive Game 7 on Saturday night with the winner advancing the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The home team has won all of the first six encounters, which includes Milwaukee’s 97-86 victory over Boston in Game 6 on Thursday as a 4 ½-point favorite.

Even though the final margin was 11 points, this was a two-point game midway through the fourth quarter. The Celtics (37%) struggled again from the field and taking 36 shots from 3-point land was outside of their norm and certainly doomed them in the loss.

Giannis Antetokounmpo filled up the box score with 31 points and 14 rebounds for the Bucks and it was the first game in this series that Milwaukee won when he scored 30-plus points.

Another stat that could have you scratching your head is that the Bucks have shot better (50.4% to 42.7%) in five of the first six games in this series yet they’ve been beat on the glass and that’s led to more attempts for Boston. Another factor hurting Milwaukee is that the Celtics have shot much better at the free-throw stripe (77%) than the Bucks (67%) and that’s translated into a 115-81 edge in points.

Oddsmakers opened Boston as a 4 ½-point favorite for Game 7 and the number has held steady as of Friday evening. Including this series, the Celtics have gone 8-3 both straight up and against the spread in their last 11 home playoff games and the three losses were expected as they were ‘dogs to LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

Outside of Game 2 when the Celtics drilled 13 bombs from 3-point land, the other two games at TD Garden were close and the cover in Game 1’s overtime win was more than fortunate for Boston backers.

Numbers don’t lie and it’s hard to dismiss what the Bucks have done on the road this season and in their recent playoff matchups outside of the Bradley Center. As a road underdog this season, the club went 9-19 SU and they only managed to save face with just three covers in those losses (12-15-1 ATS). Also, Milwaukee has lost five straight playoff games on the road going back to 2017.

One of our NBA contributors believes that "Star Players" wins series and their Best Bet is on the underdog for Game 7.

The total for Game 7 opened at 197 and has dropped to 195, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ that we’ve seen posted in this year’s NBA Playoffs. Tony Mejia of VegasInsider.com offered his thoughts on the low total.

He explained, “After the first four games in the series all soared over the posted total, the last two have been grinders that have seen neither team reach the century mark. Books have adjusted in providing the lowest opening number of the series at 197, which still seems a bit high given that Game 7s are typically played even closer to the vest. The return of Marcus Smart and inclusion of Semi Ojeleye into the starting lineup have taken the bigs largely out of the equation, especially since Milwaukee has countered with perimeter-based 7-footer Thon Baker instead of more conventional centers John Henson and Tyler Zeller. I’d imagine this deciding game will also be a race to 95 or so.”

Mejia’s opinion is right on target as the last nine Game 7’s played saw an averaged combined score of 196.7 points per game with the ‘under’ going 5-4 in those contests.

Milwaukee hasn’t been to the second round of the playoffs since 2001 and a win on Saturday would end the NBA’s longest drought without a series win.

If you look at the history of Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs, it’s understandable why Boston is favored on Saturday. The home team has gone 102-26 (80%) all-time and that includes a 19-4 record by the Celtics in games played in their venue. However, make a note that a road team has won at least one Game 7 in five of the last six postseasons.

The Bucks are just 2-7 all-time in Game 7’s and they haven’t played on this stage since 2010. Milwaukee veteran Jason Terry is one of the few Bucks with Game 7 experience, playing in three and his teams have come out on top in all of those games.

The winner of this game will face the 76ers in the second round and that series will begin Monday or Tuesday in either Boston or Philadelphia.

Western Conference – Game 1
New Orleans at Golden State (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Warriors 3-1)
Apr. 7 Pelicans (+6) at Warriors 126-120 (Over 226)
Dec. 4 Warriors (-9) at Pelicans 125-115 (Over 228)
Nov. 25 Warriors (-10.5) vs. Pelicans 110-95 (Under 228)
Oct. 20 Warriors (-9) at Pelicans 128-120 (Over 221)

The second round of the NBA Playoffs will tip Saturday night when the Warriors and Pelicans begin their best-of-seven series from Oracle Arena. Oddsmakers at BookMaker.eu opened the defending champions as eight-point home favorites and the number has jumped to - 9 ½ as of Friday evening.

Mejia offered his best guess on why the line jumped two points and why he believes the value could be with the underdog based on the inflated speculation.

“Stephen Curry could make it back, but counting on him to be the difference maker when he has suited up once since leaving a March 8 win over San Antonio with an ankle injury wouldn’t be smart. He hurt his knee most recently, so look for the Warriors to be cautious with him for as long as possible in this series, making him more of an x-factor than primary catalyst,” said Mejia.

“Whatever he gives the Warriors is gravy, which means Andre Iguodala and Quinn Cook must continue to make valuable contributions against a Pelicans backcourt featuring guys that are all playing their best ball at the ideal time. With Draymond Green and Kevin Durant also forced to decipher how best to stop Anthony Davis, Game 1 might be a wake-up call. If Curry is cleared to play after being regarded as questionable, it seems inevitable that the spread could climb even closer to double-digits, making a lean towards New Orleans irresistible.”

Curry was upgraded from ‘doubtful’ to ‘questionable’ on Thursday afternoon and if he goes, it will be his first action since Mar. 23. The Warriors did struggle in the regular season without Curry, finishing 7-10 down the stretch but his absence wasn’t missing in the first round against San Antonio.

Golden State defeated San Antonio in five games and three of the four wins came by double digits. The Warriors went 3-2 ATS and it could’ve easily been 4-1 versus the number but they pumped the breaks in the fourth quarter of Game 5.

As Mejia mentioned the Warriors will be facing a much better offensive team in New Orleans, who embarrassed Portland in the first round with a four-game sweep. The Pelicans covered every matchup behind an offense that averaged 114.5 PPG while shooting 52 percent from the field, which included an eye-opening 40 percent from 3-point land.

Davis (33 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.8 BPG) couldn’t be stopped against Portland but Green and Golden State’s team defense won’t be as vulnerable. Along with Davis, guards Jrue Holiday (27.8 PPG) and Rajon Rondo (13.3 APG) surprised bettors and dominated the more heralded backcourt of the Trail Blazers.

Producing the same results against Golden State won’t be as easy, especially when Curry is 100 percent. Curry played in three games against the Pelicans this season and he averaged 28.7 PPG and 8.7 assists, which tells you how much of a boost he could be for this series.

The one player that could trouble Curry is Rondo, who has the most playoff experience on the Pelicans roster. People forget that while he was with Chicago last season, the Bulls led Boston 2-0 in the first round with Rondo before he went down with an injury. The result was a 4-2 series win for the Celtics.

Fast forward to this season and the Pelicans are unbeaten with Rondo in the playoffs and his numbers have been even better. Including the wins over Portland, the Pelicans winning streak is up to nine games entering Saturday. Even more impressive, five of those wins have come on the road and that’s not a fluke either. Going back to mid-February, New Orleans has gone 12-3 both SU and ATS in its last 15 road games and the three losses came to the Cavs (5), Rockets (23) and Spurs (5).

While New Orleans is definitely the hotter of the two teams, the ‘rust’ factor could come into play for Game 1 knowing the club hasn't played in over a week.

Plus, looking above you can see that the Warriors got the better of the Pelicans in the regular season and that’s been a constant trend in this series. Golden State has gone 26-4 SU and 17-12-1 ATS against New Orleans dating back to 2011 and that includes the first round sweep in the 2015 playoffs.

At Oakland, the Warriors have won 12 of the last 13 with the lone loss coming this past April in a game that Curry sat out.

VI NBA expert Kevin Rogers pointed out a solid playoff angle on the Warriors. He said, “Golden State owns a 13-1 record in its last 14 playoff series openers since 2014, but the Warriors have covered only eight times in this stretch.”

An 8-6 ATS mark isn’t great but it’s certainly not bad when you’re laying heavy numbers.

The total is hovering between 223 and 224 for Game and the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair. The Pelicans kept the Trail Blazers below their scoring (105.5 PPG) and shooting (45.8%) averages but will they be able to do the same against Golden State?

Golden State (-850) has been installed as a heavy series favorite while the takeback on New Orleans (+600) is generous. While those may seem high, make a note that the Warriors (-6000) were much higher when they met in the 2015 playoffs.

Game 2 is expected to take place either or Monday or Tuesday from Oracle Arena in Oakland.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bet
April 27, 2018

Saturday NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Milwaukee vs. Boston – Game 7 (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

While it's not certain we will have any more Game 7's in the first round of the NBA playoffs at the time of this writing, we've at least got one, as the Bucks look to knock of Boston on Saturday night and get the first road victory for any team in this series.

To not get by the first round for the second straight year would be a tough blow for this Milwaukee franchise, especially considering Boston is ravaged with injuries this year and likely have their sights set on title runs in the upcoming seasons.

That's not to say Boston's not going to try and go as far as they can this year, but for a Bucks team that is looking more and more like Giannis Antetokounmpo and nobody else (like they were a year ago), not taking advantage of this opportunity would sting.

Yet, the fact remains that no road team has won a game yet in this series, and only once have the visitor's covered the number (Boston in Game 4). Milwaukee is going to have to buck – no pun intended – all of that and some significant history to move on to the next round, and you always know that the ghosts of the Boston Garden may be lurking in a pivotal Game 7 like this.

So who wins?

Boston (-4.5); Total set at 195

During any round of the NBA playoffs in the history of the league, at least during seven-game series, home teams in Game 7 like Boston who have won the prior three home games and lost the three on the road have a 17-4 SU record overall. That's good for a .810 win percentage which makes that uphill climb Milwaukee has to do seem all the more difficult. The good news for the Bucks is that situation has home teams just 2-1 SU specifically in the first round of the NBA playoffs, although it was only fairly recently (2003) that the NBA went to a seven-game format for the first round.

History is something I always consider during the playoffs, and it's usually not something I like to go against, but each series is looked at on it's own case by case basis. And regarding this Bucks/Celtics series, I think history can be ignored a bit more here, simply because it's actually the Bucks who are the ones with the best player on the floor (Antetokounmpo), and in the NBA, that means a lot.

Game 5 was a big lesson for the Bucks as after the were in a similar position trying to win on the road and take control of the series. It was a brutal start for them (down 11 at half), but they put much of that burden on themselves by trying to let their supporting cast carry the bulk of the workload. Antetokounmpo was fourth on the team in shot attempts (10) as others like Middleton, Parker, and Bledsoe shot the ball more with much less success.

That's a solid formula for success at home, but on the road in the playoffs, you've got to ride or die with your superstars and hopefully for Bucks fans, their team learned that lesson after Game 5. I expect Antetokounmpo to be ultra-aggressive from the outset of Game 7 and if him getting going frees up more space for his supporting cast I've already mentioned, then the Bucks could have something on their hands.

Boston is a team that's gotten comfortable in finding W's at home, but I feel they are relying on home court way too much at times. They've yet to really face the Bucks at their best in any of the three games in Boston, and aside from a Game 2 blowout win, the Celtics have been lucky to survive. They've blown big leads in both Games 1 and 5 to either have Milwaukee tie the game or be within one possession, and playing with fire like that is eventually going to get them burned.

So while history may suggest this Game 7 is Boston's to lose, I would not be surprised to see that exactly be the case. Milwaukee has the best player on the floor and if they allow him to shine the brightest and let everyone come along for the ride, then it will be the Bucks who are still playing basketball next week.

A lack of execution late in Games 1 and 5, and Boston's ability to make Antentokounmpo uncomfortable down the stretch with their defense, forcing others on Milwaukee to hit a shot, has me tentative on taking Milwaukee outright, but I've got no problem grabbing these mufti-possession points as if Milwaukee doesn't win SU, they aren't going to lose this game by more than four.

Best Bet: Milwaukee +4.5

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Wager
April 27, 2018

Western Conference Semifinals - Game 1 (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 2 Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors vanquished the San Antonio Spurs easily in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs and will now aim to roll through another foe. Golden State will again be a heavy favorite when it takes on the No. 6 seed New Orleans Pelicans in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Everyone is expecting the Warriors to meet up with the Houston Rockets in the conference finals, and the Pelicans would need to play the series of their lives in order to have a shot at the upset. Golden State gets Game 1 at home, where it will be a sizable favorite to take care of business and pull out to an early lead.

The Pelicans made it to this point in stunningly easy fashion, knocking off the higher-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in four straight games. Many counted out New Orleans after it lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury during the regular season, but the Pelicans have played well since that loss.

They hope to keep the momentum rolling but that is much easier said than done when facing off against a team as talented as the Warriors in NBA basketball betting.

Game 1 of this NBA Playoff Series is on Saturday, April 28, 2018 at 10:30 p.m. ET Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The contest will be nationally televised on TNT.

We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

Odds Analysis

The Warriors are 8.5-point favorites for Game 1, as the spread has creeped up a half-point since its release. The Pelicans are getting about 72 percent of the action at this total and it figures to remain around here until tipoff.

The scoring total is listed at 223.5 points, which is up one point from where it began. The “under” is the more popular choice among gamblers as about 57 percent of the action is on that side of the scoring total. Golden State scored less than usual in its first-round series against the Spurs but should return to its high-flying ways against a Pelicans team more liable to push the pace.

Golden State is a -440 favorite on the moneyline, while the Pelicans are listed as the +344 underdogs. More than 76 percent of the action is on New Orleans to pull the unlikely road upset.

Injury Report

The spread is likely taking into account the belief Warriors superstar shooting guard Stephen Curry won’t play because of a sprained MCL. He missed the final portion of the regular season and the first round series against the Spurs due to the injury.

Curry has been seen on the court at practice and during pregame shootaround and looks like he might be close to making a return. He is getting re-evaluated and there may be an update on his status soon.

The team is stacked with stars Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson already so even if Curry has to miss a few more games, the Warriors would be fine. But his return would be a big boost and would certainly affect the spread.

Coaching Situation

Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry knows the Warriors well, as he was an assistant there under Steve Kerr a few years ago, winning a title with Golden State back in 2015.

Gentry worked as an associate head coach under Kerr in 2014 and 2015. The coaches are close off the court, but will now have to engage in a battle of wits. It will be intriguing to see if Gentry’s inside knowledge of the Warriors can help give New Orleans a small edge. However, extreme talent always has the advantage over coaching, so in the end Golden State should be able to overcome any wrinkles Gentry and the Pelicans try to employ.

Free NBA ATS Picks

The Pelicans are rolling right now and should come in feeling good. Even though the Warriors have four stars leading the way, New Orleans can counter with a dominant presence down low in Anthony Davis. A fantastic series from him is essential for the Pelicans to hang around, while point guard Jrue Holiday needs to keep playing well.

If Curry plays, the spread could go up as he would give the Warriors an unstoppable group. It seems more likely he sits for at least one more game. Durant, Thompson and Draymond Green will lead Golden State to the win, but the Pelicans are the pick to keep it close and cover the spread. Consider the “under” as Gentry may have a trick up his sleeve to slow down Golden State just a tad in NBA basketball gambling.

NBA Best Bet: Warriors 109, Pelicans 102