Announcement

**Udog** · 05-28-2017, 10:23 AM

Armadillo: Sunday Extra: Trying not to get aggravated…….

I tried not to get aggravated Saturday when the A’s lost 3-2 in the Bronx; the home plate ump tossed Jed Lowrie, tossed Bob Melvin. Let’s put it this way; a friend of mine who is a New York fan texted me during the game to tell me how bad home plate umpire Will Little is.

Late Saturday night, got an e-mail from another friend, asking what I thought of Little’s performance Saturday. So I went to my umpire records and looked up how New York has done with Little behind the plate the last three years. Here are the facts from 2015-17:

2015
Bronx W5-2 @ Baltimore +$123 U9
Bronx W3-1 @ Seattle -$115 U7

2016
Bronx W6-3 vs Tampa Bay +$103 O8
Bronx W7-3 vs Kansas City -$130 O8

2017
Bronx W3-2 vs St Louis +$123, U8
Bronx W3-2 vs Oakland -$145, U9.5

Not going to say another bleeping word except this: if you were a big league manager, would you want Will Little umping the plate in a road game in the Bronx?

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Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Odds on some long shots to win the US Open golf tourney next month:

— Ernie Els, Angel Cabrera 300-1

— Harris English, Danny Lee 250-1

— Ian Poulter, Luke Donald 200-1

— Webb Simpson, Ryan Palmer 150-1

— Graeme McDowell, Tony Finau 125-1

— Jim Furyk, Kevin Kisner 100-1

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

13) The last four times umpire Alan Porter worked home plate, there have been a total of 41 walks (11-11-11-10); this is only the second such streak in 2016-17 in the major leagues- David Rackley had a 4-game streak with 10+ walks LY, but three of his four games went extra innings, including a 13-inning and a 17-inning game. None of Porter’s games went extra frames.

If you care about such things, over is 5-1-1 in Porter’s last seven games behind the plate.

12) Aaron Rodgers gave his offensive linemen $20,000 ATV’s for presents this week; have to take care of the people who protect you.

11) This is the first time ever the Colorado Rockies have had both a winning April and a winning May to start the season.

10) Marlins were down 2-1 in bottom of 5th, had bases loaded and Giancarlo Stanton up, so of course, Dee Gordon gets picked off first by the catcher to end the inning. Do we have a metric for stupidity? Can the numbers guys quantify how deflating something like this is? I didn’t think so……

9) Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood hasn’t allowed a run in his last 25.2 IP; in his last six starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.31 RA. Pretty important guy for a team whose pitchers have been injury-plagued.

8) On July 2, 2013, Jake Arrieta was traded by the Orioles with Pedro Strop and cash to the Cubs for Steve Clevinger and Scott Feldman. Looking back on the trade, it was a huge blunder by the Orioles.

But Arrieta’s career turned around after the trade, when he saw a Pilates studio while walking around Chicago with his wife; he got into a class, he got himself into much better shape and his career took off from there.

About 10-12 years ago, I actually tried Pilates for a couple of weeks (stop laughing); it was really, really hard and I quit (it was hard and I am soft). Sitting on the couch is way more fun.

7) Toronto Blue Jays got Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson back from injuries this weekend; would expect them to go on a roll soon.

6) I have an odd fascination with actors’ resumes, and the roles they’ve played.

Finally saw the Tom Hanks movie about the pilot Sully who landed a commercial airliner in the Hudson River, with no fatalities; his co-pilot in the movie is the same guy who was Al Pacino’s offensive coordinator in Any Given Sunday.

Aaron Eckhart is the guy; very good actor. He also played Texas Longhorns’ coaching legend Darrell Royal in a movie about the Longhorns.

5) A junior high teacher in Houston gave out certificates to students, included one given to a student that said “Most likely to become a terrorist.” Apparently, the teacher wasn’t kidding.

What would inspire someone to actually do that? Do they want to get fired? If you don’t like your students, fine; just keep it to yourself.

4) Found a new bad TV show to watch late at night; Second Wives’ Club, on E! about these young women who married rich, older men who had all been married at least once before. Not sure why I enjoy watching it, but the people in it are so repulsive it is hard to turn it off.

3) White Sox 3, Tigers 1— Chicago pitchers walked nine, struck out 15 as Tyler Danish won his first major league start. Very unusual for a team to walk 9+ guys in a game and win, much less toss a shutout. Detroit left 12 men on base, in the first game of a twinbill.

Detroit’s Michael Fulmer threw 96 pitches in his 8-inning complete game. White Sox pitchers threw a total of 185 pitches in nine innings. Weird game.

2) Red Sox 6, Mariners 0— Seattle lost six of last seven games; they’re 1-7 in last eight road tilts. In their first two games at Fenway this weekend, Mariners didn’t scored a run.

1) RIP to Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning 85, who pitched 17 years in the big leagues, tossed a perfect game, and later served 24 years in Congress. Thats a full life. RIP, sir.

**Udog** · 05-28-2017, 10:30 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 28

San Antonio @ Minnesota

Game 625-626
May 28, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
106.393
Minnesota
115.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 9
158
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 12 1/2
155 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+12 1/2); Over

Indiana @ Seattle

Game 623-624
May 28, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
107.607
Seattle
116.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9
164
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5 1/2
161 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5 1/2); Over

Connecticut @ Chicago

Game 621-622
May 28, 2017 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
105.812
Chicago
115.738
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 10
164
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 4
158 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-4); Over

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 28

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CONNECTICUT (0 - 4) at CHICAGO (1 - 4) - 5/28/2017, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 5-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-4 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (2 - 2) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 5/28/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1997.
INDIANA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 0) - 5/28/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 7-0 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Sunday, May 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:00 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. CHICAGO
Connecticut is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Connecticut is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 12 games at home

7:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MINNESOTA
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 11 of San Antonio's last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
INDIANA vs. SEATTLE
Indiana is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Indiana is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Seattle is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games

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**Udog** · 05-28-2017, 10:53 AM

NBA

Sunday, May 28

Flip-Flop Finals trends: Faves 17-9 ATS in Gm 1 of NBA Finals since 1991 (65%). Underdogs 16-9-1 ATS in Gm 2 (64%) in that same 26-year span

**Udog** · 05-28-2017, 11:04 AM

Favorites dominate Game 1 of the NBA Finals, betting underdogs bite back in Game 2

Heading into Thursday’s championship series opener, the favorite is 17-9 ATS in Game 1 since 1991 (65 percent) – including red-hot runs of 14-4 ATS since 1999 (78 percent) and 11-1 ATS since 2005 (92 percent).

The NBA Playoffs have been about as predictable as an episode of Scooby-Doo, with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors meeting in the finals for the third straight year. And it would seem betting the NBA Finals is just as easy to foresee, given the ATS results for Games 1 and 2 over the past 26 years of postseason basketball.

Heading into Thursday’s championship series opener, the favorite is 17-9 ATS in Game 1 since 1991 (65 percent) – including red-hot runs of 14-4 ATS since 1999 (78 percent) and 11-1 ATS since 2005 (92 percent).

The Warriors, who are 7-point home chalk for Game 1 Thursday, have covered in each of the last two Game 1 meetings with the Cavs in the NBA Finals: winning 108-100 as 6-point Game 1 favorites in 2015 and 104-89 as 6-point Game 1 favorites in 2016.

NBA Finals Game 1 favorites have given their opponents an average of -6.25 points per game since 1991, which is pretty much on par with the Warriors’ Game 1 line. Those faves have edged their finals foes by an average score of 97-88.8 in that 26-year stretch, covering by 1.95 points per game.

The predictability doesn’t stop with Game 1. The second installment of the NBA Finals series has seen that above Game 1 betting trend flipped on its ear, with underdogs bouncing back with a stronger performance in Game 2. That’s left Game 2 favorites to go just 9-16-1 ATS (36 percent) the previous 26 postseasons, including a 2-7 ATS mark since 2008.

While spreads haven’t varied too much between Games 1 and 2 - -6 in Game 2 since 1991 – favorites are only winning by an average score of 98.11-92.92, an edge of just 5.19 points per game. Shrinking that down over the past nine postseasons, that final score tightens to 98.67-95.11 with an average spread of -5.39. Perhaps even more shocking is the fact the underdog has won Game 2 outright a dozen times in the past 26 seasons.

Now, the Warriors did manage to cover the 6.5-point spread in Game 2 versus the Cavaliers last season, winning a 110-77 rout, but fell ATS in Game 2 of the 2015 finals, losing 95-93 to LeBron James & Co. as 7.5-point home chalk. Game 2 of the 2017 NBA Finals is scheduled for Sunday, June 4.

As for Games 3 and 4, which we know will happen regardless of results, betting favorites are 10-14-1 ATS (with one pick’em in 2004 finals) and 12-12-1 ATS in Game 4 (with one pick’em in 2004 finals). As you can see, these trends start to balance out as the series goes on.

Looking past the given four games, Game 5 chalk is 11-11 ATS since 1991 postseason, Game 6 faves are 6-10 ATS, and Game 7 favorites are 3-2 ATS in those deciding contests the past 26 seasons.

The 2017 Warriors and Cavaliers have been cash cows for basketball bettors riding them through the postseason. Cleveland enters the finals with an 8-4-1 ATS mark while Golden State is 8-4 ATS – a combined 67 percent win rate against the spread during the NBA Playoffs.

**Udog** · 05-28-2017, 11:06 AM

Oddsmakers set a record-high total for Game 1 of Cavaliers-Warriors NBA Finals

The Cavaliers and Warriors have produced a 4-7-2 Over/Under record in their previous two NBA Finals meetings. Can they top a record-high total in Game 1 Thursday?

If “defense wins championships”, the world must also be flat and photographs steal your soul. That popular sports cliché is about as truthful as a dating profile, especially with oddsmakers setting a record-high betting total for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Sportsbooks opened the Game 1 Over/Under at 225.5 points, with both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors possessing a surplus of offensive weaponry. That Over/Under number is the largest total in the Covers database (1990-91-2017) and easily eclipses the previous high of 214 points, which was set for Game 3 of the 1995 NBA Finals between the Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets.

The Cavaliers are averaging 116.8 points per game this postseason while the Warriors are putting up 118.3 ppg, and the two conference champs have combined for an 18-7 Over/Under count in the playoffs. That’s a 72 percent winning clip if you blindly bet the Over in each of their postseason games.

Looking back at the biggest totals in NBA Finals history, there have been just 21 championship series games with a number of 200 or more points since 1991. Those contests finished 8-12-1 Over/Under, staying below the total 60 percent of the time. There have been four finals games with totals of 211 or more points in that span, and those have split 2-2 O/U. Those previous 21 NBA Finals games, with totals of 200 or more points, saw an average of 200.9 points scored.

With this being the third installment of the Cleveland-Golden State finals saga, basketball bettors do have some history to weigh these totals trend against. In 2015, the Cavs and Dubs combined for a 2-3-1 O/U record in the NBA Finals (194.16 ppg vs. 196.7 ave total), and last year they finished 2-4-1 O/U in the finals (200.28 ppg vs. 207.93 ave total).

Overall, the NBA Finals is a breeding ground for low-scoring basketball. Going back to the 1990-91 season, NBA Finals games have a 54-80-5 Over/Under record (59.7 percent Unders) with an average combined score of 187.18 points versus an average closing total of 189.81. And since 2000, the NBA Finals has pumped out a 36-48-5 O/U count (57 percent Unders).

Focusing specifically on Game 1 of the NBA Finals over the past 25 years, the Under has been a profitable 9-15-1 O/U since 1991 with an average combined score of 185.56 points versus an average closing total of 191.56. That Game 1 trend is 3-9-1 O/U since the 2004 finals.

And, breaking it down by spread, there have been 24 NBA Finals games with favorites of seven or more points the last 25 postseasons. Those contests finished 9-14-1 Over/Under – a 61 percent winning clip for the Under.

Golden State opened as a 7-point home favorite versus Cleveland for Game 1 of the NBA Finals Thursday night.

**Udog** · 05-28-2017, 11:08 AM

Your betting preparations for the NBA Finals should include this smart wager

This season for the Golden State Warriors isn’t about accolades, awards or records. It’s about one thing and one thing only - redemption.

The build-up to this year’s iteration of the NBA Finals will — assuming Cleveland handles its business in Boston Thursday night — more closely resemble our annual approach to the Super Bowl than what we’ve experienced in previous professional hoops seasons.

Why? Unlike last year, when the championship series between the Cavaliers and Warriors commenced just three days after Golden State edged Oklahoma City in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, this year’s battle for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy will likely endure a lull of approximately one week in between the final two series of the season.

This additional time away from NBA betting can serve a refreshing purpose, as gamblers will have the opportunity to casually enjoy the holiday weekend free from sweating last-second free throws, catch up on Major League Baseball and clear their minds in preparation for the final contests of basketball season.

The downside, however, is the risk of suffering paralysis by analysis.

We’ve all been there before, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl. You’ve got those initial feelings on game flow, scoring and other elements as it pertains to the biggest game of the season. But with two weeks in between the Conference Championship round and the Super Bowl, you may indulge a bit too much when it comes to research, thereby thoroughly twisting your mind into one of those famous Philadelphia soft pretzels.

Today, our goal is very simple: Isolate one element from the upcoming Golden State-Cleveland showdown and establish a position we can support when this trilogy finally gets underway in Oakland.

The element in question, you ask? That would be none other than a Game 1 first half side.

Let’s begin with the fact that offshore shop Bookmaker.eu recently posted an NBA Finals Game 1 point spread that featured the Golden State Warriors listed as 7.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers, with a total of 225 points.

Given that first half point spreads generally tend to land in the neighborhood of half of the full-game point spread, we’ll operate under the assumption that the Warriors will open as a 3.5 or 4-point favorite for the first half of Game 1.

And if that’s the case, I can tell you right now that you’ll be able to find me casually striding up to the counter with the intention of laying the points with the Dubs.

Our rationale begins with a look at how Golden State has performed in the first half of Game 1 of each playoff series the franchise has participated in over the last three seasons. Take note that “+” indicates the amount of points the Warriors led by at halftime, while “-“ indicates the amount of points the Warriors trailed by at halftime:

2015: Game 1 vs. New Orleans: +18 (won game)
2015: Game 1 vs. Memphis: +9 (won game)
2015: Game 1 vs. Houston: +3 (won game)
2015: Game 1 vs. Cleveland: -3 (won game)

2016: Game 1 vs. Houston: +27 (won game)
2016: Game 1 vs. Portland: +14 (won game)
2016: Game 1 vs. Oklahoma City: +13 (lost game)
2016: Game 1 vs. Cleveland: +9 (won game)

2017: Game 1 vs. Portland: 0 (won game)
2017: Game 1 vs. Utah: +12 (won game)
2017: Game 1 vs. San Antonio: -20 (won game)

11 games with a +82 overall scoring differential and a +7.45 per first half scoring differential. Not too shabby.

Granted, the 2015 Pelicans and 2016 Rockets are nowhere near the class of the 2017 Cavaliers. But in two showdowns between the league’s best teams this season, the Warriors outscored the Cavaliers by three points in the first half in Cleveland on Christmas Day and by 29 points in Oakland on January 16. Further, here’s how the first half of each Golden State home game during last year’s NBA Finals against the Cavaliers shook down:

Game 1: +9
Game 2: +8
Game 5: 0
Game 7: +7

And that’s before the team added four-time scoring champion and 2014 MVP Kevin Durant to the roster.

In addition to the above date, I’ll leave you with this thought: I host the morning sports talk show on the Warriors’ flagship station in the Bay Area. I’ve been around this team for each of the last three seasons. This isn’t the exuberant Cinderella run from 2015 or the 73-win campaign from last spring in which the team took its eyes off the prize. This season isn’t about accolades, awards or records. It’s about one thing and one thing only.

Redemption.

Redemption for the team from last year’s 3-1 choke job, redemption for Kevin Durant for all the trash he’s had to hear since signing with the Dubs.

Expect this team to come out blazing hot in Game 1 on Thursday, June 1.

Announcement

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/28

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/28

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