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**Udog** · 05-13-2017, 08:35 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Some interesting pointspreads for NFL games this season:
— Week 14: Tennessee @ Arizona (-3)
— Week 14: Dallas (-1) @ NJ Giants
— Week 15: Falcons (-1.5) @ Buccaneers
— Week 15: Cardinals @ Redskins (-2)
— Week 16: Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)
— Week 16: Seahawks @ Cowboys (-3)

Giants beat Cincinnati 3-2 in 17 innings late last nite; game ended at 3:45am here in the east. Buster Posey caught 17 innings, then hit the walk-off HR.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Exit velocity is the new popular stat baseball announcers lean on after a batter hits a line drive. Giancarlo Stanton lined a single to left the other night that had a 115 mph exit velocity, which is why they call third base “the hot corner”.

12) We talked earlier this week about the Reds sending starting pitcher Amir Garrett to AAA to “manage his innings”; he threw 29 pitches in two innings in a brief AAA appearance Friday night. Am guessing he will be back in Cincinnati in 3-4 weeks.

Garrett threw 144 innings LY, meaning the Reds want to keep him to 173 or less this year. Teams don’t want young pitchers increasing their innings pitched by more than 20% in one year. He’s already thrown 36 innings for the Reds this year.

11) Freshman guard Frank Jackson is staying in the NBA Draft, even though he isn’t projected as a first round draft pick; if top recruit Trevon Duval doesn’t go to Duke, that means the kid they outrecruited Eastern Kentucky for might be the Blue Devils’ starting point guard next season.

Jackson started only 16 of Duke’s 36 games last year.

10) Brad Johnson, who won a Super Bowl as QB of the Tampa Bay Bucs, has a son in 9th grade who is a QB; he’s already gotten nine scholarship offers from D-I programs. Brad Johnson went to Florida State; Seminoles, Auburn, Georgia, LSU are among the schools to offer young Johnson.

9) Brewers 7, Mets 4– Matt Harvey allowed five runs in 5+ innings, giving up back/back homers to Eric Sogard/Orlando Arcia in the 6th inning. Harvey is very, very ordinary.

8) Good info from The Big Lead: Over last three NBA Drafts, an average of 15 foreign players were taken, with players from 32 different schools selected.

In 1986, the first 17 players drafted came from 17 different schools; from 1984-86, the first 60 picks in those three drafts came from 47 different colleges.

7) Sports Illustrated laid off college basketball writer Seth Davis this week, who also does studio work on CBS. ESPN laid off the great Andy Katz; tough spring for college hoop writers- those two had a combined 40 years in before they got laid off.

6) Random irrelevant fact: former FBI Director James Comey is 6-foot-8.

5) Seattle pitcher Chase DeJong threw five innings in Toronto Thursday, threw 88 pitches. Blue Jay batters swung at 30 of those 88 pitches, with no misses. Pretty sure that’s the most pitches I’ve seen thrown in a major league game with no swings/misses.

4) College football coaches are out on the road recruiting these days; Illinois defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson had an emergency appendectomy while recruiting in Jacksonville. I had one of those in 1993; scary thing. Hope he is feeling better soon.

3) Minnesota Twins have homered in 13 straight games, their longest such streak since 1988.

2) Wizards 92, Celtics 91- Onions!!! John Wall nailed a 3-pointer with 0:03.6 left to keep Washington alive; Game 7 is in Boston on Sunday. Home team is 6-0 in this series. This was a hard-fought game, first one in series decided by less than ten points.

1) Tip of the cap to Dick Vitale; Friday night was his annual gala down in Florida- he has raised over $100M over the years to fight cancer for the V Foundation. Good for him.

**Udog** · 05-13-2017, 08:51 AM

Four reasons why you should start betting on the WNBA

Basketball bettors who braved the WNBA last season found great value with underdogs and the Over. Will those two wagers continue to pay out in 2017?

The WNBA opens its 21st season to thunderous applause this weekend. Well, maybe not thunderous. And, maybe not applause. More like a slow sarcastic clap.

Most often, the league serves as a better punchline than entertainment but like all sports – popular or not – a little wager can quickly make you a die-hard fan. And as ridiculed as the WNBA is, it has quietly become the secret weapon of sharp bettors each summer.

Due to the lack of exposure and coverage, plenty of WNBA news, trends and tidbits fall on deaf ears, which means those with their head to the women’s hardwood have a distinct advantage over the public and even the sportsbooks.

Here are some good reasons why sports bettors should love the “Dub” and what to look for when handicapping lady hoops.

Study pays off

The bookmakers delegate their resources to the sports that generate the most betting. WNBA lines are generally softer than the odds you’ll find in college and NBA basketball. As a result, someone that invests the time and effort into their research can have a strong advantage betting on a sport that is off most people's radar.

The bottom line is that the cold, hard cash won betting on the WNBA is worth the same as money won betting on any other sport.

Lack of depth

“I essentially handicap the games same as I would any other sport, but find that because the public and oddsmakers aren't as up on it, that you can often find very advantageous lines,” says Covers Expert Power Sports. “One key difference between it and most men's leagues is that there is a real lack of depth as far as talent goes, so the top two and three teams end up being much better than the rest of the field.”

The 2016 WNBA season finished with only three teams above .600 in the standings: Minnesota at 28-6, Los Angeles at 26-8, and New York at 21-13. Those three clubs went a combined

Value on the dogs

Many WNBA die-hards stick strictly to underdogs during the season. The thought behind this tactic is that you get plenty of recreational bettors and action junkies coming out of the woodwork in the summer months, when the sports betting menu is thin. Those players blindly pound the favorites and can warrant line movement that opens up value on the underdog.

Betting the WNBA dogs proved profitable last season, with betting underdogs going 115-100-5 ATS (53.5 percent). Road teams getting the points were especially solid, with a 77-62-2 ATS mark on the year (55.4 percent).

Score more

The 2016 WNBA season was unlike any other. Scoring jumped from 150.29 combined points per game in 2015 to 163.76 combined points per game last year, and it showed in the Over/Under results. WNBA games finished 123-96-1 O/U – a 56.16 percent winning clip for the Over. So not only was the women's game more exciting but it also had a profitable totals trend as the cherry on top of the sundae.

There are a few factors contributing to this sudden uptick in point production: Average pace (points per possession) jumped from 74.5 in 2015 to 76.7 in 2016, 3-point shooting climbed a touch from 14.7 attempts per game in 2015 (32.5 3PT percentage) to 16 attempts in 2016 (33.6 3PT percentage), and teams got to the foul line more often (18.56 FTA in 2015 to 21.18 FTA in 2016).

However, one of the biggest differences last season (and perhaps the facilitator of those above statistics) was the new shot clock rule. The WNBA stayed with the 24-second shot clock, but reset to 14 seconds – rather than a full reset to 24 seconds – after an offensive rebound. That meant that teams couldn’t milk the clock for a full 24 seconds after pulling down the offensive glass, therefore quickening the pace of play.

Here’s a look at the WNBA futures heading into Saturday’s season opener:

Los Angeles Sparks +225
Minnesota Lynx +275
New York Liberty +500
Washington Mystics +500
Phoenix Mercury +900
Seattle Storm +1,000
Indiana Fever +1,500
Atlanta Dream +2,200
Connecticut Sun +2,200
Dallas Wings +2,800
Chicago Sky +3,000
San Antonio Silver Stars +3,000

**Udog** · 05-13-2017, 08:53 AM

Four need-to-know notes for betting the 2017 WNBA season

Candace Parker and the Los Angeles Sparks start their defense of their WNBA Saturday when they host the Seattle Storm.

The WNBA tips off season No. 21 Saturday afternoon and while the league doesn’t grab headlines, it can help bettors keep their bankroll growing over the summer. Here are some news and notes to help give you a head start handicapping the 2017 WNBA schedule:

Futures are bright

After winning the 2016 WNBA title in buzzer-beating fashion, the Los Angeles Sparks begin the defense of their title as +170 favorite to repeat. The Sparks bring back their dominating frontcourt of 2016 WNBA MVP Nneka Ogwumike and 2016 WNBA Finals MVP Candace Parker, along with most of their core pieces on the perimeter. The notable exception being sharp-shooting Kristi Toliver, who signed with the Washington Mystics in the offseason.

Those odds don’t mean things are going to be easy for WNBA champs, as the Minnesota Lynx want their title back. The Lynx have been an elite team in the WNBA in recent years, appearing in five of the last six WNBA finals, and winning three.

Minnesota is coming off a franchise-best 28 regular season wins and bring back their core of Maya Moore, Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus, Rebekkah Brunson and Sylvia Fowles. Brunson, Whalen and Augustus have all been in the league for over a decade and the memories of last season's heartbreaking Game 5 loss will only help motivate this veteran squad. The Lynx are currently sitting at +200 to win the title.

As far as upstarts go, the Mystics acquired arguably the best woman’s basketball player on the planet, Elena Delle Donne. As is with basketball, if you have the best player on the floor, you have a chance. Additions Kristi Toliver and No. 6 overall draft pick Shatori Walker-Kimbrough will add perimeter scoring. The Mystics open the season at +600 to win the title.

In the desert, the Phoenix Mercury blew up their roster, with 10 new players. The only remaining members of last year's team are superstars Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, which is a pretty solid foundation. Taurasi is heading into her 13th season and needs just 178 points to become the WNBA’s all-time scoring leader. The Mercury head into the season with the third-best odds to win the title at +300.

Buckets, buckets, buckets

Before the start of the 2016 WNBA season, the league introduced a new rule recommended by the Competition Committee. The 24-second shot clock would reset to 14 seconds when the offensive team maintained possession of the ball - offensive rebound or tip out of bounds. This by design, quickened the pace of play.

Scoring surged from 150.29 combined points per game in 2015 to 163.76 combined points per game last year. And books were slow to adjust, at the end of the season WNBA games finished 123-96 O/U, which is a 56 percent winning clip for Over backers.

Leading the way for Over profits were the Chicago Sky at 23-11 Over/Under (67.6 percent) followed by the Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics both at 22-12 O/U (64.7 percent). The 56 percent Over rate is up from 45.5 percent in 2015 and 46.5 percent in 2014.

WNBA is in the daily fantasy game

The WNBA announced Thursday that they are partnering with FanDuel, becoming the first women’s professional sports league to be available in one-day fantasy betting.

FanDuel will have the normal offerings of daily contests and offering free WNBA contests in which participants can win merchandise, courtside tickets, and other WNBA swag.

Dogs for days

The WNBA is essentially a summer job for many of its stars. Numerous women’s professional basketball players, play a full season in Europe and come stateside for the summer. Overseas playoffs and international responsibilities such as EuroBasket, FIBA Asia/America’s and 2018 World Cup qualifying are going to impact WNBA rosters at various points throughout the season. Keep an eye on which teams and players will be in and out due to these prior commitments.

During the summer months, recreational bettors target the WNBA to add beef to a parlay or chase a favorite, if only because it’s the only option on the sheet, and that often inflates the lines on favorites, opening up value on underdogs.

The top ATS team in 2016 was the Connecticut Sun going 20-12-2 ATS (59 percent) - 10-6-1 at home and 10-6-1 on the road. That ATS success didn’t translate to the standings as Connecticut finished fifth in the East and outside of the playoff picture. The San Antonio Stars finished at the bottom of the WNBA standings at 7-27 SU but went 18-15-1 ATS, including a 10-7 ATS (59 percent) record on the road.

Blinding betting the WNBA dogs proved profitable in 2016, with underdogs going 115-100-5 ATS (53.5 percent). Road teams getting the points were particularly profitable, hitting a 77-62-2 ATS mark on the year (55.4 percent).

**Udog** · 05-13-2017, 09:53 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, October 20

Atlanta @ Connecticut

Game 605-606
May 13, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
107.963
Connecticut
117.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Connecticut
by 10
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Connecticut
by 7
157 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(-7); Under

Seattle @ Los Angeles

Game 603-604
May 13, 2017 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
117.041
Los Angeles
115.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 6 1/2
147 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+6 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ New York

Game 601-602
May 13, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
103.266
New York
108.411
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New York
by 5
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York
by 8
152
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+8); Under

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 20

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SAN ANTONIO (0 - 0) at NEW YORK (0 - 0) - 5/13/2017, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 5-0 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (0 - 0) at LOS ANGELES (0 - 0) - 5/13/2017, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 6-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 6-1 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (0 - 0) at CONNECTICUT (0 - 0) - 5/13/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-4 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, October 20

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. NEW YORK
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

5:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Seattle
Los Angeles is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle

7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CONNECTICUT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Connecticut is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

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Announcement

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/13

Saturday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/13

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