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**Udog** · 05-07-2017, 10:20 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Odds to win the Big 14 football title this coming fall:
9-5 Ohio State
12-5: Michigan
13-5: Wisconsin, Penn State
15-1: Northwestern Nebraska
7-1: West Virginia
16-1: Michigan State
20-1: Iowa
40-1: Minnesota
60-1: Indiana
125-1: Illinois, Maryland, Purdue
200-1: Rutgers

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Random stuff for a soggy Sunday……

13) Busy day today; finally had enough with the keyboard on my MacBook Pro, took it back to the Apple Store and it is in the shop for a week or so—we’ll make do with our backup laptop until then.

It is nice to be able to type the letter “t” without wanting to throw something.

12) Should go buy Apple stock; when are their stores not crowded? They make a ton of money and their products aren’t even that durable.

11) One of the guys who owns Always Dreaming, the horse who won the Kentucky Derby, also owns the NHL’s Florida Panthers.

10) Adrian Gonzalez has played in 1,833 major league games over 14 years; this is the first time he has gone on the disabled list.

9) Michael Ynoa threw six scoreless innings of relief for the Orioles Friday, the first pitcher to throw 100+ pitches in relief and not allow a run since Randy Johnson in 2001- the Big Unit struck 17 batters that day.

8) Way of the world now: 67 players will attend the NBA Draft Combine; only 18 of them are college seniors.

7) Matt Albers got a save for Washington Friday in his 461st major league game, the 103rd one he has finished- that was the 2nd most games finished without ever saving a game. Now he has one.

6) Quick Albers story: April 2011, I’m in Las Vegas and Albers is on the Red Sox. He comes into a game in Kansas City in relief of Daniel Bard, who Bobby Valentine was trying to make into a starter—I had added Bard on my fantasy team.

This was one of Bard’s best starts for Boston (he didn’t have many); I’m supposed to be across the street at Battista’s meeting friends for dinner, but I wait to see if Albers can get out of this inning- I needed Bard to become a decent starter.

Nope. Billy Butler hit a ball off Albers that might still be going; by the time it landed over the fountains, I was already halfway across the street, headed to dinner. Totally unsure how Albers is still in the big leagues, but there he is and on a good team.

5) Texas Rangers TV analyst Tom Grieve was saying this weekend that the quality of the wood in bats has to be much worse now than when he played in the 70’s. Couple of bats in the Texas-Seattle game Friday splintered into pieces, making Grieve laugh.

4) 30 Cuban players played in the major leagues last year; so far in five weeks this year, 20 Cubans have already appeared in the big leagues.

3) Miami Marlins’ pitching staff is in shambles; they’re starting a reliever Sunday- their spot starter Saturday, Odrisamer Despaigne, allowed six runs in the first inning and Miami never even had a reliever warming up.

2) I’m curious as to how many people have played the President of the United States in a movie; has to be a pretty high number.

1) A 5-star recruit named Kevin Knox chose Kentucky Saturday over a bunch of schools, including Florida State, his father’s alma mater. You can make the argument that John Calipari is the best recruiter………ever.

**Udog** · 05-07-2017, 10:27 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 7

San Antonio @ Houston

Game 515-516
May 7, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
121.422
Houston
122.580
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
212
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+6); Under

Boston @ Washington

Game 513-514
May 7, 2017 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
121.503
Washington
128.010
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 6 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 4 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-4 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 511-512
May 7, 2017 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
128.414
Toronto
116.076
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 12 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 7
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-7); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 7

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CLEVELAND (58 - 31) at TORONTO (55 - 36) - 5/7/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 188-233 ATS (-68.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 12-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 14-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (59 - 32) at WASHINGTON (54 - 37) - 5/7/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 10-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-5 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (67 - 24) at HOUSTON (60 - 30) - 5/7/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1002-874 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 37-51 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 11-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 7

Main thing here is this: do Raptors even want to keep playing? Win here and they have to go back to Ohio. Cleveland won first three series games by 11-22-21 points, can end things here; Cavaliers won their last four games in Toronto. Over is 4-2 in last six series games. Cleveland is 7-0 in playoffs, covering its last five games; they’ll get a long rest if they win here, with Celtic-Wizard series looking like a long one. NBA teams are 0-123 in series when down 3-0 in games. Raptors split their last four home games. Over is 7-3 in last ten Cleveland games. Cavs’ bench outscored Toronto’s 30-9 in Game 3.

Washington held Thomas to 13 points in Game 3 win, after he torched them for 53 in Game 2. Home side won all three Celtic-Wizard games in this series and last seven meetings overall; Boston lost its last three games in this arena, by 25-15-27 points. Four of last six series games went over- favorites are 8-2 vs spread in last ten meetings. Wizards’ Game 3 win ended Boston’s 6-game win streak, both SU/ATS. Wizards won last four home games (3-1 vs spread); three of their last four games went over. Celtics shot 35.1% from floor last game.

Houston went 22-50 on arc in Game 1 upset in San Antonio; they’re 20-63 on arc in two games since, as Spurs’ defense has improved. Spurs won Game 3 without injured PG Parker (out for year); they’re 8-2 in last 10 games with the Rockets, winning last four games in Houston, by 10-6-2-11 points. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Game 3 loss snapped a 4-game home win streak for the Rockets. Harden scored 43 points in Game 3; other four Rocket starters scored 39- obviously they need more balance. Mills played 30:00 off bench to offset Parker’s absence.

Second round playoff series:
Boston-Washington
Bos 123-111, -4.5, O216
Bos 129-119 O, -5, O218.5
Wash 116-89, -5.5, U218

Cleveland-Toronto
Clev 116-105, -7, O211
Clev 125-103, -7, O214.5
Clev 115-94, -3, U215

San Antonio-Houston
Hst 126-99, +6, O215.5
SA 121-96, -5.5, O215
SA 103-92, +5.5, U215

Golden State-Utah
GState 106-94, -13, U206.5
GState 115-104, -13.5, O206
GState 102-91, -7, U209

Favorites 8-4 (28-26-1)
Over 7-5 (29-26)

NBA

Sunday, May 7

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Trend Report
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3:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Toronto's last 25 games when playing at home against Cleveland

6:30 PM
BOSTON vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Boston

9:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games on the road
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

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**Udog** · 05-07-2017, 10:30 AM

Sunday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+6, 214.5)

Cavs lead series 3-0

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (58-31 SU, 41-45-3 ATS, 52-36-1 O/U): LeBron James has operated at will against the Raptors by averaging 36.3 points and shooting 60.4 percent from the field in the three victories. He has been superb overall in seven games this postseason with averages of 34.3 points, nine rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.4 steals. "We just want to try to get better every game," James said after the victory. "We did that once again. We knew we were coming into a hostile environment. We knew they were going to give us everything they had no matter who was in the lineup and we just had to weather the storm."

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-36 SU, 48-42-1 ATS, 48-43-0 O/U): Kyle Lowry averaged 20 points and eight assists in the first two games but injured his ankle in Game 2 and his Saturday comments paint him as highly unlikely to see the court on Sunday. Not having Lowry would be a burden under any circumstance but was magnified even more when backup Cory Joseph was unable to step up and had just four points (on 2-of-12 shooting) and six assists in 33 minutes. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan registered a career playoff-best 37 points in Game 3 after he tallied just five points on 2-of-11 shooting in Game 2.

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 6-point home pups for Game 4 and the number has been bumped up to 6.5 with Kyle Lowry calling himself ‘doubtful’. The total hit the betting board at 214 and came down a full point to 213 Saturday afternoon.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - PG Kay Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).

Raptors - PG Kyle Lowry (Questionable, ankle).

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Toronto.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards (-4.5, 216)

Celtics lead series 2-1

ABOUT THE CELTICS (59-32 SU, 46-43-2 ATS, 44-43-4 O/U): Boston start point guard Isaiah Thomas went off for 53 points in Game 2 but was limited to 13 in 29 minutes in Game 3 and did not start the second half while staying in the locker room undergoing dental work. Thomas, who lost a tooth and suffered damage to others after running into Otto Porter's elbow in Game 1, is dealing with temporary teeth and bridge work that won't be made permanent until after the season ends but is fighting through the issue and looking for ways to attack the Washington defense. "We'll make the adjustments as a team, I'll watch film, I'll make the adjustments myself and see where I can pick them apart," Thomas told reporters after the loss. "They did a really good job (Thursday), though. On both ends of the floor they set the tone."

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (54-37 SU, 46-44-1 ATS, 56-34-1 O/U): The tension between the teams goes back to the regular season, and shooting guard Bradley Beal is trying to keep his Washington teammates under control. “We know that they’re going to be chippy," Beal told reporters. "We know they want to talk trash, get us out of our game a little bit, be physical with it. We did a good job just keeping our poise." Beal is trying to find his own game while shooting 37 percent from the floor in the series and slumping to a playoff-low 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting in Game 3.

LINE HISTORY: The Wizards opened as 4.5-point home chalk for Game 4 and hasn’t moved off that opening number. As for the total, it hit the board at 215 and was quickly bet up to 216.

INJURY REPORT:

Celtics - Isaiah Thomas (Probable, mouth).

Wizards - SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (Questionable, possible suspension).

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 13-3-2 in Celtics last 18 road games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-5.5, 212)

Spurs lead series 2-1

ABOUT THE SPURS (67-24 SU, 47-42-2 ATS, 50-39-2 O/U): Small forward Kawhi Leonard was solid in Game 3 with 26 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists but the bigger development was power forward LaMarcus Aldridge emerging from his two-game funk. Aldridge scored 26 points on 12-of-20 shooting in Game 3 after averaging just 9.5 points on 8-of-22 shooting over the first two games of the series. "This was his best game, obviously," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters of Aldridge. "He felt good. He was loose as far as his physical nature, his legs and everything. He wasn't too stiff, and it showed. He moved up and down the court well, he was able to push off on the block, he felt good shooting the ball."

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (60-30 SU, 46-44-0 ATS, 45-44-1 O/U): James Harden broke loose for the first time in the series with a 43-point effort in Game 3 after averaging 16.5 on 9-of-30 shooting over the first two games. Even with his big effort, the Houston offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders as only forward Trevor Ariza (17 points) and center Clint Capela (12 points, 16 rebounds) joined Harden in double figures. "We've got to drive it," Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters, referencing the Spurs keeping the Rockets off the 3-point line. "We've got to make an extra pass. We've got to get it to the next guy. We've got to move the ball a little bit better. It's been easy all year. The first shot's there - now it might be like the third pass, and we've got to do a better job moving it."

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened 5.5-point home favorites in a must-win Game 4 and that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 211.5 and was bet up slightly to an even 212.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - Tony Parker (Out For Season, Quadricep).

Rockets - No injuries to report.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Spurs last seven overall.
* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Houston.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

**Udog** · 05-07-2017, 10:33 AM

LeBron shines for bettors in close-out games
By: Andrew Caley

Sorry Raptors fans, but this isn't going to be your year. It was going to take Toronto playing almost perfect basketball to beat the Cavaliers in this series, but that hasn't happened and now they're down three games to none. To make matters worse, LeBron James has run through the Raps like a freight train and unfortunately, when LeBron smells blood, he attacks.

More specifically, when LeBron gets the chance to end a playoff series, he usually does. Plus he usually puts cash in his backers pockets at the same time.

James has won 10 consecutive close-out games (games in which teams have three wins and can end a series with a victory) straight up, going 7-3 against the spread. Over the course of his entire career James is 30-9 SU (76.9 percent) and a very profitable 25-13-1 ATS (64.1 percent).

It may be stating the obvious, but James certainly leads by example in these games, averaging 27.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game and the truth is he has been even more dominant in these games since returning to Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are a perfect 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in close-out playoffs since James came home to Cleveland and while his points may be down at 25.8 points per game, he has been much more efficient and is almost averaging a triple double, with 9.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game.

Just to make it a little tougher on the Raptors, James also likes to finish a series quick when he has the chance.

LeBron led teams have won seven consecutive games straight up when attempting to sweep a series, going 5-2 against the spread. So while, it's not over until it's over, James usually makes sure its over.

Announcement

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/7

Sunday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 5/7

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