Wednesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 4/5

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Wednesday, April 5

Good Luck on day #94 of 2017!
NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Individual betting matchups for the Masters this week:

— Paul Casey -$145 vs Bubba Watson +$125

— Daniel Berger -$140 vs Patrick Reed

— Justin Rose -$130 vs Jon Rahm +$110

— Lee Westwood -$125 vs Jimmy Walker +$105

— Charley Hoffman -$155 vs Danny Willett +$135

— Bill Haas -$125 vs JB Holmes +$105

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Happy Hump Day, America…….

13) Tony Romo retired Tuesday and will now work on CBS with Jim Nantz on their #1 NFL broadcasting team. There are rumors he will also do some work on CBS golf telecasts, seeing as how he is a scratch golfer.

12) North Carolina Tar Heels got zero #1 votes in the preseason Top 25 poll- they won the national championship. Wonder if they’ll get any #1 votes next preseason.

11) Washington Wizards are 47-31, most games they’ve won since 1979. Good for Scott Brooks, who got a bum deal in Oklahoma City.

10) Minnesota Timberwolves’ star Karl Anthony Towns is younger than all ten players who started in the Gonzaga-UNC game Monday night.

9) I don’t give a rat’s ass about who wins MVP in any sport; it does not matter. You listen to some people talk about the NBA, and they talk more about individuals than teams. Winning and losing are all that truly matter; that and effort. Too much talk about individuals.

8) San Diego Padres have a payroll of roughly $71M this season, but over half of that is to players who are now on other teams.

7) Portland/Denver are tied in loss column for #8 playoff spot in the West. Celtics/Cavaliers are tied for first in the Eastern Conference. Miami trails Indiana by a half-game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.

6) College basketball coaching changes:
a) Joe Pasternack (Arizona ass’t) takes over at Cal-Santa Barbara.
b) Lamont Paris (Wisconsin ass’t) takes over at Chattanooga.
c) CB McGrath (North Carolina ass’t) takes over at NC-Wilmington.
d) Matt Figger (South Carolina ass’t) takes over at Austin Peay.

5) It is funny that Georgetown paid a search firm to find their new basketball coach; Patrick Ewing is the best player in Georgetown history- couldn’t have been that difficult to identify him.

4) NHL players are unhappy that the league won’t set time aside for players to compete in the Olympics next winter.

3) Quote of the Day, part 2, from Klay Thompson, a great “outside” shooter:
“I’d probably say the weather’s gotten better. The sunshine has been so good to me. … It just puts me in a great mood to come to the gym every day, get my work in, go home, enjoy it — the outdoors. The Bay Area is beautiful. That’s a big part of it — not even kidding.”

2) If the NBA playoffs started this morning (they do not), matchups would be:
East
Indiana/Cleveland, Chicago/Boston, Atlanta/Toronto, Milwaukee/Washington

West
Portland/Golden State, Memphis/San Antonio, Oklahoma City/Houston, Clippers/Utah.

1— Tony Romo earned $127,422,458 in salary during his NFL career; curious to see how he does behind a microphone. I know he’ll like announcing better on Monday mornings, when he wakes up and isn’t sore all over from getting hit all day Sunday.

[Udog]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 5

Miami lost four of its last six games; they’re 3-1-1 vs spread in last five road games. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Charlotte won three of last four games, is 6-4 vs spread in last ten home games. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Hornets are 5-3 in their last eight games with Miami; seven of last eight series games stayed under total. Heat won/covered once in last four visits to Charlotte.

Raptors won eight of last ten games; they’re 3-1 vs spread in last four road games. Four of their last five games went over total. Detroit lost nine of last 11 games; they’re 13-5 vs spread in last 18 home games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Toronto won four of last six games with the Pistons; they won three of last five games in Motor City. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Cavaliers won their last three games; they’re 1-5 against the spread in last six road games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Celtics won nine of last 11 games, are 0-4 vs spread in last four games at home. Four of their last six games went over the total. Cleveland won eight of last ten games with Boston; they won three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games went over.

Denver is 8-5 in its last 13 games; they won last two games, by three points each. Nuggets are 7-2 vs spread in last nine road games. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Houston lost three of last four games; three of their last four games stayed under total. Rockets won last three games with Denver, but Nuggets covered four of last six series games. Three of last four series games went over. Nuggets lost three of last four visits here (2-2 against spread).

Oklahoma City is 9-4 in its last 13 games; they’re 3-1-1 vs spread in last five road tilts. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Memphis won/covered last four home games; they’ve lost six of last eight games overall. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Home side won eight of last nine Thunder-Grizzlies games; OKC lost four of last five games in Memphis. Four of last six series games went over.

Lakers lost four of last five games, are 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. San Antonio won eight of last nine games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight home games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Spurs won their last eight games with the Lakers (4-3-1 vs spread); LA lost its last four visits to the Alamo (1-2-1 vs spread). Last seven series games went over total.

Golden State won its last 12 games, covered last six; they’re 6-1 vs spread in last seven home games. Under is 18-3 in their last 21 games (0-2 in last two). Suns lost their last 12 games, are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven home games. Six of their last seven games went over. Golden State won its last ten games with Phoenix, but Suns covered four of last five. Warriors won last four games in the desert (2-2 vs spread). Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Dallas lost five of last six games; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 road games. Six of their last eight games stayed under. Clippers won seven of last nine games, are 6-7 vs spread in last 13 games at Staples. Four of their last six games stayed under. Clippers are 6-4 in last ten games with Dallas, but Mavericks won last two meetings by a basket each. Dallas won/covered once in last four visits here. Four of last five series games went under the total.




NBA

Wednesday, April 5

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CHARLOTTE
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Charlotte is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. DETROIT
Toronto is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Toronto is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Toronto
Detroit is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Toronto

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. MEMPHIS
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games at home
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
DENVER vs. HOUSTON
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BOSTON
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

8:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. SAN ANTONIO
LA Lakers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games
LA Lakers are 3-18 SU in their last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
San Antonio is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

10:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Phoenix
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games

10:30 PM
DALLAS vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 24 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
LA Clippers are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of the LA Clippers last 15 games when playing Dallas


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 5


Cleveland @ Boston

Game 505-506
April 5, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
118.807
Boston
128.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 9 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-3 1/2); Under

Oklahoma City @ Memphis

Game 509-510
April 5, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
119.920
Memphis
124.829
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 5
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 1 1/2
202
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-1 1/2); Over

Denver @ Houston

Game 507-508
April 5, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.118
Houston
123.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
247
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 8 1/2
241
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+8 1/2); Over

Dallas @ LA Clippers

Game 515-516
April 5, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
119.593
LA Clippers
124.656
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 5
198
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 12
203 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+12); Under

Golden State @ Phoenix

Game 513-514
April 5, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
128.441
Phoenix
110.660
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 18
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-7 1/2); Under

LA Lakers @ San Antonio

Game 511-512
April 5, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
108.176
San Antonio
131.620
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 23 1/2
197
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 11
204
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-11); Under

Toronto @ Detroit

Game 503-504
April 5, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
119.307
Detroit
122.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
193
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
198
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+1 1/2); Under

Miami @ Charlotte

Game 501-502
April 5, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
118.263
Charlotte
123.656
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 5 1/2
198
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 1 1/2
206 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(-1 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 5

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MIAMI (37 - 40) at CHARLOTTE (36 - 42) - 4/5/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
MIAMI is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MIAMI is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 9-9 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 9-9 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (47 - 31) at DETROIT (35 - 42) - 4/5/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 111-157 ATS (-61.7 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-4 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (50 - 27) at BOSTON (50 - 27) - 4/5/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-6 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 10-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (37 - 40) at HOUSTON (52 - 25) - 4/5/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (44 - 33) at MEMPHIS (42 - 36) - 4/5/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-4 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (22 - 55) at SAN ANTONIO (60 - 17) - 4/5/2017, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (64 - 14) at PHOENIX (22 - 56) - 4/5/2017, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-5 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (32 - 45) at LA CLIPPERS (47 - 31) - 4/5/2017, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NBA

Wednesday, April 5

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Wednesday’s NBA Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Celtics
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LeBron James has recorded two straight triple-doubles after producing 18 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists against Orlando on Tuesday night.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-4, 219)

The race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference takes center stage Wednesday night when the Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers won 122-102 at home against Orlando on Tuesday to pull into a tie with the Celtics with five games to play for both teams.

It was the third straight win for Cleveland, which has lost seven of its last 10 road games and dropped a 103-99 decision at Boston on March 1. The Celtics have won two in a row and nine of their last 11 following a 110-94 victory over the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, reaching the 50-win mark for the first time in six years. "It was definitely an individual goal of mine coming into the season, to win 50 games," guard Isaiah Thomas told reporters. "I'm just glad we got to that, but, like I keep saying, we still got a lot more work to do." Thomas has scored at least 30 points in all three meetings with Cleveland this season, although Boston has lost two of those encounters.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), CSN New England (Boston)

LINE HISTORY: In a late-arriving betting line, the Celtics opened at -3.5 and the total hit the board at 219. The spread was bumped up to -4 after only an hour on the board.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - SG K. Korver (Probable, foot).

Celtics - SG A. Bradley (Probable, illness), SF J. Crowder (Questionable, elbow).

POWER RANKINGS: Cavaliers (-5.8) - Celtics (-6.1) + home court (-3) = Celtics -3.3

CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES:

Cavaliers +375
Celtics +1600

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (50-27 SU, 34-40-3 ATS, 44-32-1 O/U): LeBron James has recorded two straight triple-doubles after producing 18 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists against Orlando. Cleveland made 18-of-36 from 3-point range and shot 53.7 percent from the floor overall en route to its third straight game with at least 122 points. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving combined for 52 points while sharpshooter Kyle Korver returned from a foot injury to produce 11 points in 12 minutes.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (50-27 SU, 38-37-2 ATS, 37-37-3 O/U): Forward Jae Crowder required an MRI on his left elbow after experiencing some issues during Sunday's win, but there was no structural damage and he is questionable for this one. Thomas shot at least 50 percent in four of his last five games and has four efforts with at least 30 points in that span. Guard Avery Bradley (illness) has missed two consecutive contests but is expected to return and face the Cavaliers.

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
* Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Boston.


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[Udog]

NBA Betting Road Map: Playoff races provide plenty of betting value

Can the Celtics supplant the Cavaliers and claim the East's top seed this season? Meanwhile the Cavs' struggles has been a boon for Over bettors.

With just nine days left in the NBA's regular season, there are several story lines that still need an ending written. While the biggest one is whether Boston can supplant Cleveland as the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed for this year's playoffs, all eight of the Eastern Conference's seeds and five of the Western Conference's seeds remain unsettled, as of Tuesday morning.

Al McCordie takes a look at the upcoming week of NBA action and breaks down the betting angles of all the moving pieces.

Spread Watch

The Golden State Warriors are on an 11-game win streak and have covered nine of 10, including their last five in a row. This point spread hot streak reversed a stretch where the Warriors lost 10 of 11 against the spread. For the season, Golden State's ATS record is just 38-37-2, but what bodes well for it in the playoffs is that it's excelled against the better teams in the league.

The Warriors are 28-12-2 ATS when facing clubs with a .460 or better winning percentage and are 12-3 ATS versus foes that have won more than 63 percent of their game. This week however, the Warriors will face off against the Timberwolves, Suns and Pelicans. Of those games, Golden State's match on Tuesday against Minnesota looks to be the most troublesome, as the Warriors are a poor 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two teams and have lost two of the last four straight-up.

Totals Watch

The Cleveland Cavaliers' defense has been abysmal since the All-Star Break, ranking next-to-last in efficiency over that span. This spate of awful play has sent Cleveland's season defensive efficiency rating all the way down to No. 22 (1.11 points per possession). In contrast, the league's two best teams -- the Spurs and Warriors -- have the two best defensive efficiency ratings (around 1.04 ppp).

This doesn't bode well for the Cavaliers in the Playoffs, as one has to go all the way back to 2006 to find a champion (Miami Heat) which ranked outside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. In conjunction with poor defensive play, has been a propensity to go Over the total. The Cavaliers have gone Over in six of their last eight games and Tuesday's game looks to be another great opportunity to play the Over, as the line has been installed at 221.5 points. This season, when the Over/Under line has been at least 209 points, the Cavs have gone Over in 39 of 58 games, so look for a relatively high-scoring game on Tuesday.

Injury Watch

The Portland Trail Blazers have been on a serious roll since acquiring center Jusuf Nurkic from the Denver Nuggets in mid-February. Indeed, the team had just won its 13th game of 16 when it was discovered that Nurkic had sustained a non-displaced fibular fracture in his right leg. It's possible that he will be able to return in the playoffs, but Portland will be without him for the rest of the regular season.

The Trail Blazers have gone 1-1 straight-up, but 2-0 ATS in their two games since he was sidelined and have covered seven straight games, overall. However, Don't expect the Blazers' good fortune lasting much longer. This week, the Blazers face the Jazz twice, sandwiched around a home game versus the Timberwolves. Tuesday's road game at Utah is a great situation to fade Portland, given the Trail Blazers will be unrested following a road game in Minnesota. Since 1990, road underdogs playing their second game in as many nights have covered just 32.3 percent off seven (or more) point spread wins.

Schedule Watch

For over two years, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been horrid on the road when playing without rest. Dating back to February 6, 2015, they're 7-20 straight up and 6-20-1 ATS in this situation, including 1-9 SU/ATS this season. This week, the Cavaliers will play their biggest game of the season at Boston, on Wednesday, following a home game the previous night vs. Orlando. The winner will have the inside track to get the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston is 22-4 its last 26 home games and will have the added benefit of playing with two days rest. However, Cleveland has won eight of the previous 10 meetings, straight-up.

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, April 5

Miami at Charlotte, 7:05 PM ET
Miami: 24-12 ATS after playing a home game
Charlotte: 2-10 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread

Toronto at Detroit, 7:35 PM ET
Toronto: 23-12 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Detroit: 5-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Cleveland at Boston, 8:05 PM ET
Cleveland: 1-9 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days
Boston: 24-15 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3

Denver at Houston, 8:05 PM ET
Denver: 6-22 ATS off a road win
Houston: 18-8 ATS after allowing 115 points or more

Oklahoma City at Memphis, 8:05 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 8-14 ATS as a road underdog
Memphis: 44-23 ATS off a road loss

LA Lakers at San Antonio, 8:35 PM ET
Los Angeles: 11-24 ATS after playing a home game
San Antonio: 25-13 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5

Golden State at Phoenix, 10:05 PM ET
Golden State: 18-8 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
Phoenix: 2-11 ATS off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog

Dallas at LA Clippers, 10:35 PM ET
Dallas: 31-18 ATS off a road loss
Los Angeles: 5-14 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8