Announcement

**Udog** · 03-26-2017, 07:55 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Odds to win this year’s World Series:

19-5— Chicago Cubs

7-1— Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers

8-1— Boston Red Sox

12-1— Houston Astros, New York Mets, Washington Nationals

14-1— San Francisco Giants

30-1— Detroit, Bronx, Seattle, St Louis, Texas, Toronto

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

13) Gonzaga 83, Xavier 59— Would be a fun night to be in Spokane, with Gonzaga making the Final Four for the first time. Clock struck midnight for Xavier, which went further than they should have, considering their point guard last played on January 29. Gonzaga made 12-24 on the arc, and when the favorite makes their 3’s, they often win big.

This is first time since 2002 a double digit seed made regional finals and didn’t cover the spread; they’re now 3-3 SU, 5-1 vs spread in last six tries.

12) Oregon 74, Kansas 60— Wherever Bill Walton watched this game, he had to be gushing; the Ducks were up 11 at the half- they made 11-25 on the arc, Kansas was 5-25. Jordan Bell blocked eight shots, was dominant inside. Jayhawks played only six guys (a 7th guy played 4:00)- this was the fewest points they scored in a game all season.

Must be fun to play for Oregon; tons of free sneakers when your #1 booster is Phil Knight.

11) It bothers me to type this because the guy is one of the best coaches ever, but Bill Self is now 2-7 in Elite 8 games; he’s been a #1-seed in the tournament seven times, and made the Final Four once in those seven years. He’s also won the Big X regular season 13 years in a row, which no other coach has ever done in any league, not even John Wooden.

When you don’t win the national championship there will always be naysayers, and Kansas has won “only” one national title under Self, but for the love of God, Kansas is lucky to have him.

10) Devin Booker scored 70 points Friday night in the Suns’ loss in Boston, their 7th loss in a row and first of the seven losses where they even covered the spread. They’re a very young NBA team that is obviously looking forward to the season ending.

After the game, the team took a pic in the locker room, celebrating Booker’s 70-point night, which is one of the best scoring nights in NBA history, but did all the players have to look so damn happy? Does winning/losing even matter? They’re all young, they’re all rich- I’m just wondering what veteran NBA people think about all that. The pic just didn’t look right. Winning and losing should always matter.

9) I’m curious when NBA scouts are watching a game like Kentucky-UCLA Friday night, and De’Aaron Fox scores 36, how much (if at all) does that one game move the needle as far as their opinion of that player, or the players they were playing against?

8) Indiana hired Dayton’s Archie Miller as its new basketball coach; looks like the AD is trying really hard to distance the Hoosiers from their past, if he didn’t hire Steve Alford, who is beloved in Indiana. Reality is that Alford isn’t as good a coach as Archie Miller.

7) Michael Porter Jr makes the expected move and signs with Missouri, because they hired his father as an assistant coach. My questions are these:

When Michael Jr jumps to the NBA after next season, does Michael Sr get to keep his job?
Why sign with Cuonzo Martin? He had an NBA player in Leon Rabb this year and didn’t make the NCAA’s; he had Rabb and Jaylen Brown last year and lost to Hawai’i in the first round- what makes you think he is the best guy to coach your son?

6) Rough couple of days on the Las Vegas Strip; some genius robbed a jewelry store at Bellagio last night; he actually parked in the parking garage and was nabbed. Then Saturday, there was a shooting on a bus. Get the nonsense out of your system— I’ll be out there soon!!!

5) Minnesota Timberwolves have lost nine games this year that they led by 15+ points, the most in the NBA this season.

4) Apparently TV networks are now in the race to sign Tony Romo, who if he keeps this up much longer might become a candidate for the 2020 Presidential race- everyone seems to want the guy, but not enough to trade a draft pick for him.

3) When ESPN broadcast a Gonzaga game this season, ESPN’s Jay Bilas told Gonzaga big man Przemek Karnowski that he would grow a beard if the Zags made the Final Four, so now he has to grow a beard. Hopefully during next season, not during the summer, when he isn’t on TV.

2) Foul or defend? When your team is up 3 in last 0:15 of a game, this is a genuine gray area of coaching. Some of the best coaches in the country differ on this- there is no right answer.

People say Florida messed up when they didn’t foul Wisconsin when they were up 3 Friday- the Badgers hit a 3-pointer, sent the game to OT, but Florida won, so how did they mess up? Not everyone believes fouling there is the correct play.

What if you foul, and they miss the free throw and get the rebound? It has happened. If you believe in fouling, it has to be practiced. I’ll be very curious to see what Florida does in these situations next season.

There used to be a guy on Twitter, Steve Finamore, a high school coach in Michigan, who tracked as many of these situations as he could. Reaction was mixed on what proper strategy is.

1— One of my favorite parts of Saturday’s regional finals? Mark Few and Dana Altman were the winning coaches; neither one of them played Division I college basketball. Playing and coaching are different things that require different skills. Non-players can be excellent coaches.

**Udog** · 03-26-2017, 08:34 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 26

IPFW @ TX-Corpus Christi

Game 727-728
March 26, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
IPFW
53.377
TX-Corpus Christi
56.705
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TX-Corpus Christi
by 3 1/2
165
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
IPFW
by 1 1/2
161 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
TX-Corpus Christi
(+1 1/2); Over

Liberty @ MD-Baltimore Co

Game 725-726
March 26, 2017 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Liberty
45.678
MD-Baltimore Co
53.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
MD-Baltimore Co
by 7 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
MD-Baltimore Co
by 3
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
MD-Baltimore Co
(-3); Over

Kentucky @ North Carolina

Game 723-724
March 26, 2017 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kentucky
70.574
North Carolina
75.783
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 5
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 2 1/2
159 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(-2 1/2); Under

South Carolina @ Florida

Game 721-722
March 26, 2017 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Carolina
73.667
Florida
74.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 1
130
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 3 1/2
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
South Carolina
(+3 1/2); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 26

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S CAROLINA (25 - 10) vs. FLORIDA (27 - 8) - 3/26/2017, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
FLORIDA is 75-47 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
S CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 2-2 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-2 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (32 - 5) vs. N CAROLINA (30 - 7) - 3/26/2017, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 293-240 ATS (+29.0 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 165-130 ATS (+22.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more this season.
KENTUCKY is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 2-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LIBERTY (21 - 13) at MD-BALT COUNTY (20 - 12) - 3/26/2017, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IUPU-FT WAYNE (20 - 12) at TEXAS A&M CC (22 - 11) - 3/26/2017, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road lined games this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IUPU-FT WAYNE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 26

In last 30 years, there have been four regional finals with 4-seed vs 7-seed- they’ve all come since ’05, with underdogs covering three of four- Michigan State was only favorite to cover, but they needed OT to do it. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in all regional finals. Home side won both South Carolina-Florida games this season; Gamecocks beat Florida 57-53 Jan 18 (Gators were 0-17 on arc), then lost rematch 81-66 Feb 21 (Florida was 9-19 on arc). South Carolina held Baylor to 0.76 pts/possession Friday; their two senior stars were only guys to play more than 29:00. Florida played four starters 32:00+ in its wild win late Friday night.

Malik Monk scored 47 points in Kentucky’s 103-100 win over North Carolina in Las Vegas back in December; Wildcats outscored UNC 8-2 over last 1:37 of game- they made 10-18 on arc for the game. Tar Heels made 9-17 on arc in game they trailed by 12 in first half. Calipari is 4-1 in regional finals at Kentucky, beating Carolina in this round in ’11. Tar Heels won nine of last 11 games, Kentucky won its last 14 games- their last loss was Feb 4. Both teams won fairly easily Friday night; Wildcats played four guys 32:00+. UNC played had a stress-free game vs Butler. Underdogs covered four of last five regional finals that featured a 1-seed and a 2-seed.

Sunday’s extra basketball tournaments
UMBC finished 5th in America East, the #26 league; they’re #159 experience team playing #53 pace. Retrievers are 11-4 out of conference- they scored 88-87 points in first two tourney games; they’ve been off for eight days. UMBC made 25-59 on arc (42.4%) in last two games. Liberty finished 3rd in Big South, the #27 league; Flames are #294 experience team playing pace #342- they won 14 of last 18 games, but lost last two true road games, at Winthrop/NC-Asheville. Liberty’s last game was on Monday.

Fort Wayne upset Indiana in November, was 14-4 at one point, then went 6-8 rest of the way. Mastodons are #94 experience team playing pace #35— they’re 9-3 out of conference, but haven’t played in 11 days, when they beat Ball State at home. A&M-Corpus Christi lost its conference title game in OT; Islanders won 13 of last 15 games after starting season 9-9- they’re 4-4 in D-I games outside Southland. Corpus Christi is 1-3 vs teams in top 150, with only win over Georgia State 11 days ago. Islanders are #127 experience team playing #155 pace.

NCAAB

Sunday, March 26

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Trend Report
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2:20 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 7 games
Florida is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games

5:05 PM
KENTUCKY vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games
North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

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**Udog** · 03-26-2017, 08:40 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 26

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NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: South Carolina vs Florida
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The Gamecocks and Gators split their regualr season meetings, with each team winning and covering on their home court. The rubber match has the Gators -3 with a Final Four spot on the line.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators (-3, 134.5)

Game to be played at Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

The third time really will be the charm for SEC rivals South Carolina and Florida, who split their regular-season series and meet in a rubber match Sunday afternoon in the NCAA Tournament East Region at Madison Square Garden with a spot in the Final Four on the line. To say the teams took different paths from the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight would be an understatement.

Seventh-seeded South Carolina used an 18-0 first half run to back another strong defensive performance, forcing 16 turnovers while holding Baylor to 30.4 percent shooting to grind out a surprisingly lopsided 70-50 upset of the third-seeded Bears on Friday. "We've been doing it all season," senior guard Sindarius Thornwell, the SEC Player of the Year, said after scoring a game-high 24 points and grabbing six rebounds. "Now, y'all gave us the stage to do it, and we're just showcasing what we've been doing all season." Fourth-seeded Florida advanced with a dramatic 84-83 overtime victory over No. 8 seed Wisconsin, winning on junior guard Chris Chiozza's buzzer-beating 3-pointer five minutes after guard Zak Showalter capped a late 12-point Badgers comeback with a dramatic leaping, one-legged 3-pointer of his own to force overtime. "I don't know how it happened, I just know it went in,"Chiozza said. "Now, we have another game to play."

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened up as 3.5-point chalk over the Gamecocks and by Saturday night that number was down half point to an even 3. The total hit the board at 134.5 and has yet to move off that number.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA: Despite garnering SEC Player of the Year honors, the 6-5, 211-pound Thornwell was still somewhat under the radar on a national level before the NCAA Tournament but made the most of the big stage, averaging 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game while also connecting on 10-of-22 3-pointers. "He's had an unbelievable year," Gamecocks coach Frank Martin said adding, "I'm happy he's getting the recognition he deserves." Sophomore guard PJ Dozier (13.7 per game this season), senior guard Duane Notice (10.3) and 6-9 sophomore forward Chris Silva (10.1) join Thornwell (21.4) in averaging double figures for the Gamecocks, who try to advance to the Final Four for the first time.

ABOUT FLORIDA (27-8): Chiozza, who finished with eight points, five assists and four rebounds, will be remembered for his dramatic game-winner but it was the play of sophomore guard KeVaughn Allen that carried the Gators for most of the game. Allen, who leads the team in scoring (14.1), finished with 35 points against Wisconsin, a school record for an NCAA Tournament game. Senior guard Canyon Barry (11.6), son of NBA Hall of Famer Rick Barry, and junior forward Devin Robinson (11.3) also average in double-digits for the Gators, who managed to adjust after losing top rebounder John Egbunu (7.8 points, 6.6 boards) to a torn left ACL in a Feb. 14 victory at Auburn.

TRENDS:

* Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Southeastern.
* Gators are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.
* Under is 10-2 in Gamecocks last 12 neutral site games as an underdog.
* Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of picks of are siding with the underdog Gamecocks, while Under is picking up 54 percent of the totals wagers.

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**Udog** · 03-26-2017, 08:42 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 26

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NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Kentucky vs North Carolina
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Two of the country's most storied programs meet in the South Region final when Kentucky takes on UNC for a spot in the Final Four.

Kentucky Wildcats vs North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 158)

Game to be played at FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

Two of the most successful programs in college basketball history meet Sunday in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight at FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn., and the South Region game between top-seeded North Carolina and No. 2 seed Kentucky also serves as a rematch of one of the best games this season. The Wildcats beat North Carolina 103-100 on Dec. 17 in a one-day showcase in Las Vegas as Malik Monk scored 47 points, a freshman record at Kentucky, hitting the go-ahead 3-pointer with 16.7 seconds left.

Both teams faced challenging roads to this point - especially Kentucky, which beat third-seeded UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen 86-75 on Friday night, getting 39 points from freshman guard De'Aaron Fox and some redemption after the Bruins went to Kentucky and beat the top-ranked Wildcats earlier this season. Kentucky also won games by single digits over Northern Kentucky and Wichita State in the first two rounds of the tournament, so the Wildcats should be prepared for a close battle against North Carolina. The Tar Heels beat fourth-seeded Butler 92-80 in the Sweet Sixteen and their two leading scorers, Justin Jackson and Joel Berry II, came through with big games, scoring 24 and 26 points, respectively. Kentucky is well aware of the duo as Jackson, a 6-8 junior forward, scored a career-high 34 points against the Wildcats in December, and Berry, a 6-foot junior guard, scored 23.

TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The Tar Heels opened as 2.5-point chalk over the Wildcats and that line has held firm in the first few hours. As for the total, it hit the betting board at 158 and like the spread hasn’t moved off the opening number.

ABOUT KENTUCKY: The Tar Heels start four forwards that measure 6-6, 6-8, 6-9 and 6-10, so the Wildcats need to counter that with their superior guard play. Kentucky still needs strong performances in the middle from 6-10 freshman forward Bam Adebayo and 6-9 senior forward Derek Willis, their only two starters down low. They didn't hold up well against UCLA's size, combining for 10 points and 12 rebounds, and the Wildcats didn't receive any help up front off the bench.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA: Like many of the high school All-Americans who sign with North Carolina, Kennedy Meeks wasn't expected to stick around for four years, but the senior forward made the decision to keep coming back and might be the biggest difference-maker in this game. Meeks is not only 6-10, but weighs 260 pounds and should be able muscle his way loose down low against the Wildcats. He played only 20 minutes before fouling out in the earlier meeting against Kentucky, but still scored 12 points and grabbed seven rebounds, numbers that figure to improve if he can stay on the court.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
* Under is 7-0 in Wildcats last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 13-3 in Wildcats last 16 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 6-1 in Tar Heels last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of users are taking the chalk with the Tar Heels and the Over is picking up 70 percent of the totals wagers.

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**Udog** · 03-26-2017, 01:10 PM

Public pounding the Over in Sunday's NCAA Tournament betting action

“This game is a bookmaker’s dream, bets coming in on both sides, with little to no chance of getting sided or middled because we haven't had to move our number.”

The last two spots in the Final Four are up for bids today in NCAA Tournament play, with one clash featuring SEC teams and one with two of college basketball’s royalty. Patrick Everson checks in on where the action is with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 4 Florida Gators – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

South Carolina was in the midst of a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS plunge entering the NCAA Tournament, yet now finds itself on the precipice of the Final Four, in the East Region final at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Gamecocks (25-10 SU, 14-16-2 ATS) have won and cashed all three of their NCAA Tournament games, including a stunning upset of No. 2 seed Duke in the round of 32, followed by a 70-50 wipeout of No. 3 Baylor on Friday as a 3-point underdog in the Sweet 16.

Florida (27-8 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) reached the Elite Eight by surviving one of the tourney’s most entertaining games. The Gators and No. 8 seed Wisconsin punched and counter-punched, ultimately going to overtime Friday before Florida got a 3-pointer at the buzzer for an 84-83 victory as a 1-point chalk.

“We opened Florida a solid 3.5-point favorite over South Carolina, and we saw a decent amount of early money on the ‘dog,” Childs said. “It was enough money and tickets to push our line down to 3. But at -3, we booked very sharp action on Florida, and that pushed our number back to the opening price of -3.5.

“While we respect the sharp action on Florida, the money and betting tickets are mounting on the dog, and I could see us getting back to 3 at some point before this game tips.”

Childs’ expectation proved correct, as the line dipped back to 3 later this morning. The total opened at 135.5 and has seen plenty of activity, too.

“One of our sharper players immediately hit it under, so we went down to 134.5 and dealt that number all day Saturday and up until this morning before going to 135, as the public is pounding the over in this game,” Childs said.

Indeed, Sportsbook.ag later upped the total to 136.

No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels – Open: -2.5; Move: None

It’s a clash of basketball titans in the South Region final, with tipoff at 5:05 p.m. ET. North Carolina (30-7 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) got its sternest test in the round of 32, holding off No. 8 seed Arkansas 72-65 as an 11.5-point favorite. In Friday’s Sweet 16 contest, the Tar Heels led Butler by 16 at halftime and coasted to a 92-80 victory as a 7-point favorite.

Kentucky (32-5 SU, 19-17-1 ATS) reached the Elite Eight by putting a lid on all the Lonzo Ball talk. The Wildcats got 39 points from De’Aaron Fox en route to an 86-75 victory over No. 3 seed UCLA on Friday, covering as a 1.5-point pup.

“What an epic game this should be, with two powerhouse basketball schools. I can’t wait,” Childs said, noting Carolina opened -2.5, at a price of -105, with the underdog Wildcats at +2.5 (-115). “And we haven't moved off that opener. We haven't seen any of our sharps get involved, and the money and ticket count is split down the middle. So we have great, great two-way action on what will be the biggest-bet game of the day, and we haven't had to move our number to generate that two way action.

“This game is a bookmaker’s dream, bets coming in on both sides, with little to no chance of getting sided or middled because we haven't had to move our number.”
The total, however, is a little different story, after starting out at 158.5.

“We’re seeing one-sided action on the total. It’s been all over money,” Childs said, noting the number surged to 160.5 early today and then bumped to 161.5. “I'm fairly certain that our sharps are just waiting to see how high this total will get before they get involved and take the under.”

Announcement

Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/26

Sunday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/26

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