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**Udog** · 03-21-2017, 07:18 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds on who will get the most saves this season (William Hill Sports):

4-1— Kenley Jansen

9-2— Zach Britton

7-1— Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman

8-1— Edwin Diaz

10-1— Jeurys Familia

12-1— Craig Kimbrel, Wade Davis

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) You don’t read enough uplifting stories these days; saw one on Twitter Sunday night on how former Indiana coach Tom Crean is a terrific guy, doing random acts of kindness around the Bloomington area throughout his seven years coaching the Hoosiers.

Crean was being mentioned for the LSU job (he didn’t get it); he got Marquette to the Final Four when he had Dwyane Wade. The man can coach; am guessing he’ll have a new job soon, but being selfish, would actually be curious to hear him on TV for a season.

12) In 1980, Duke’s basketball coach quit to go to South Carolina, in part because the Duke AD didn’t have the coaches’ parking lot paved, even though the coach requested it after he made the Final Four in ’78. When the coach left, Duke hired a young coach named Krzyzewski to replace him, so Duke fans shouldn’t be too annoyed the Blue Devils lost to Carolina Sunday.

If the Gamecocks hadn’t hired Bill Foster away from Duke 37 years ago, maybe the Coach K era never would’ve happened.

11) Counting all four postseason tournaments, ACC teams are 5-15 against the spread. All this “Which conference is best/worst?” arguments are cyclical, it changes from year to year.

10) Last three times Arkansas made the NCAA tournament, they were eliminated by North Carolina, in 2008, 2015, 2017.

9) Ominous stats for UCLA (South), Oregon (Midwest), who are playing in regional semifinals this week: since ’06, Pac-12 teams are 10-6 in West Region semis/finals, but 1-11 in other region’s semis/finals. Arizona is still playing in the West region.

8) Hey, they found Tom Brady’s Super Bowl jersey; now I can sleep better.

7) Since 2010, Wisconsin/Kentucky (six each) have most Sweet 16 appearances.

6) Greg Maddux faced 20,421 hitters in his career; of those, only 310 times did he have a 3-0 count. Of the 310 3-0 counts, 177 of them were intentional walks.

5) NFL is considering shortening overtime to 10:00 instead of 15:00. They should eliminate it altogether in preseason games.

4) QB Josh McCown gets $6M for one year from the Jets, where he’ll have a chance to start.

3) LIU went 20-12 this season, 13-5 in the NEC, but they fired their coach Monday. Must be an interesting backstory there. Guy went 46-42 in five years in the NEC, making the NCAA’s in his first year. Doesn’t seem like a record that merited a dismissal.

2) Philadelphia 76ers’ studio show is unique; former St Joe’s coach Jim Lynam is an analyst, and so is his daughter Dei Lynam. I’m old enough to remember when St Joe’s won a tournament game way back when and his daughter ran on the court and hugged him- she was a kid back then.

1— Our thoughts/prayers go out to former NFL WR Dwight Clark, who announced he has ALS and is fighting that crippling disease. One thing, though…….

My mother passed away in 2004; she had Alzheimer’s, dementia and arthritis in her knees, but she never played one down of football. Football isn’t responsible for everything.

**Udog** · 03-21-2017, 07:23 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 21

Richmond @ TCU

Game 669-670
March 21, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Richmond
65.115
TCU
70.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 5
145
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 8
150 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Richmond
(+8); Under

Georgia Tech @ Ole Miss

Game 667-668
March 21, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
61.721
Ole Miss
63.820
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ole Miss
by 2
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ole Miss
by 5 1/2
144
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Tech
(+5 1/2); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 21

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GEORGIA TECH (19 - 15) at OLE MISS (22 - 13) - 3/21/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
OLE MISS is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
OLE MISS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
OLE MISS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GEORGIA TECH is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
GEORGIA TECH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
OLE MISS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RICHMOND (22 - 12) at TCU (21 - 15) - 3/21/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICHMOND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 237-285 ATS (-76.5 Units) in all games since 1997.
TCU is 237-285 ATS (-76.5 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
TCU is 99-142 ATS (-57.2 Units) in all home games since 1997.
TCU is 99-142 ATS (-57.2 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
TCU is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
TCU is 162-219 ATS (-78.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
TCU is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 21

ACC teams are 5-15 vs spread this postseason, 1-4 as underdogs; Georgia Tech lost by 23 at Tennessee, by 17 at home to Georgia in its two SEC games. Tech lost its last seven true road games; their last true road win was Jan 15 at NC State. Ole Miss just won road games at Monmouth/Syracuse to get here; Rebels lost by 5 at Va Tech, won by 5 at Syracuse in their two games vs ACC teams. Ole Miss is 10-4 in its last fourteen games overall. SEC teams are 8-5 vs spread this postseason, 3-4 when favored.

TCU won four of its last five games; they won last game in OT at Iowa- that was their first road win since Feb 1 (1-4). Horned Frogs lost three of last four home games; they’re 13-1 outside the Big X this season. Richmond won seven of last eight games; three of those wins were on road. Spiders lost by 7 at home to Big X’s Texas Tech back in December. Big X teams are 9-4 vs spread this postseason, 7-2 when favored. A-14 teams are 4-5 vs spread in postseason, 3-1 as an underdog.

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 21

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
RICHMOND vs. TCU
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Richmond's last 6 games on the road
Richmond is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of TCU's last 7 games at home
TCU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

9:00 PM
GEORGIA TECH vs. MISSISSIPPI
Georgia Tech is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Mississippi's last 11 games
Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 03-21-2017, 01:24 PM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 21

Georgia Tech at Ole Miss, 9:00 PM ET
Georgia Tech: 11-3 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds
Ole Miss: 1-8 ATS in home games after scoring 80 points or more

Richmond at TCU, 7:00 PM ET
Richmond: 9-2 ATS after playing a home game
TCU: 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 80 points or more

**Udog** · 03-21-2017, 01:27 PM

Five NCAA tournament betting trends to follow into the Sweet 16

The Midwest Region of the NCAA tournament bracket has produced an 11-0-1 Over/Under mark so far in the Big Dance, averaging 155 points per game.

The final whistle has blown on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and it’s only a four-day break until the action starts up again. Before looking to the Sweet 16 matchups, here’s a quick recap of the biggest betting storylines from the past weekend:

ACC set to cold

The Atlantic Coast Conference is to college basketball what the Southeastern Conference is to college football. That’s why it surprised no one the tournament committee placed more teams from the ACC (nine) than any other conference in the Big Dance.

Those nine teams went a collective 99-14 straight up and 52-38-1 against the spread in non-conference games this season (some of those games did not have odds). Those same teams went 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS in the opening rounds of the tournament.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the only team from the ACC remaining in the tournament and they needed a 12-0 run in the final four minutes to finish off Arkansas Sunday.

The Heels are co-favorites with Kansas to win the tournament (+450) but will have to beat Butler and the winner of Kentucky-UCLA just to make it to the Final Four.

Over the top

Many books and sports betting reporters detailed how Vegas and online books enjoyed a winning weekend from the betting public. One thing the books would like a do-over on are the totals for the opening rounds.

The Over went 23-9 in the Round of 64 thanks in large part to the results in the Midwest Region. The Over went 11-0-1 in Kansas’ region with an average of 155 points scored per game.

The four teams remaining in the Midwest are shooting a collective 42 percent from 3-point land and 51.8 percent from the field during the tournament. Oddsmakers set the Purdue-Kansas total at 156.5 the highest Over/Under number for the Boilermakers this season.

The Big 12 has also been a boon for Over bettors, with all 10 of the NCAA games involving Big 12 members going Over the total. Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia remain in the Big Dance with totals of 156.5, 137.5, and 148.5 respectively for their regional semifinal games.

Talk the chalk

The opening week of the NCAA tournament is known for some sizable pointspreads when top seeds take on those in the No. 13, No. 14 and No. 15 category. Double-digits favorites stumbled out of the block on the opening Thursday but righted the ship Friday, but the big betting chalk is just 6-9 ATS heading into the Sweet 16. Now that we're down to the tournament elite, bettors won't likely see another double-digit spread the rest of March.

They will, however, see plenty of slim spreads - like the lines bouncing around pick'em for matchups such as Michigan vs. Oregon and UCLA vs. Kentucky. Florida is also a small favorite against Wisconsin, current giving the Badgers two points. Favorites of 2.5 points or less are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS so far in the Big Dance, covering 61.5 percent of the time.

Bad beats

Tom Petty said even the losers get lucky sometimes. Southern Cal and Oklahoma State backers must know what the front man from the Heartbreakers was talking about.

Both teams were on the fortuitous end of late-game garbage points. Oklahoma State trailed Michigan by four points with 3.7 seconds left to play. Oklahoma State guard Jawun Evans brought the ball up and launched a shot from at least four feet behind the 3-point arc.

The ball splashed through the net as time expired. Michigan players raised their arms in triumph while UM backers reached for their handkerchiefs.

Southern Cal was the comeback king in the first two rounds of the tournament and it looked like the Trojans were going to pull off another come-from-behind win against the 5.5-point favored Baylor Bears. The Trojans grabbed their first second-half lead when Chimezie Metu finished at the rim to make the score 65-63 with 6:13 left to play.

Baylor went on a 19-9 run and carried a 6-point lead into the final seconds. De’Anthony Melton missed an off-balance leaner from deep but the ball bounced softly to Metu. The big man used one hand and volleyed in an uncontested put-back. The buzzer-beating changed the score from 82-76 to 82-78, meaning the Bears failed to cover the 5.5-point spread.

But, for every bad beat there’s an amazing win. Let's hope you were on the positive - and profitable - side of these decisions.

Update on Outstanding Player

Duke wasn’t just the pre-tourney favorite to win the national championship. The team also boasted three of the Top 15 players with the shortest odds to win the Most Outstanding Player Award.

Duke’s ousting also means Luke Kennard (+800), Grayson Allen (+1200) and Jayson Tatum (+1600) are all no longer in contention for the honor.

The only other players to drop out who had odds before the tournament are Villanova’s Josh Hart (+1000), Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell (+2200), FSU’s Dwayne Bacon (+4000), Notre Dame’s Bonzi Colson (+6600), SMU’s Semi Ojeyele (+6600), Virginia’s London Perrantes (+6600) and Oklahoma State’s Jawan Evans (+20,000).

Here are the latest MOP prop odds (from Sportsbook.ag):

Frank Mason III (Kansas) +750
Justin Jackson (North Carolina) +750
Allonzo Trier (Arizona) +800
Josh Jackson (Kansas) +800
Lauri Markkanen (Arizona) +1000
Lonzo Ball (UCLA) +1000
Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) +1000
Malik Monk (Kentucky) +1200
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) +1500
Dillon Brooks (Oregon) +1800
DeAaron Fox (Kentucky) +2000
Derrick Walton Jr. (Michigan) +2000
Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga) +2000
Bryce Alford (UCLA) +2500
Caleb Swanigan (Purdue) +2500
Devonte Graham (Kansas) +2500
T.J. Leaf (UCLA) +2500
Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina) +3000
Ethan Happ (Wisconsin) +4000
Jevon Carter (West Virginia) +4000
Johnathan Motley (Baylor) +4000
KeVaughn Allen (Florida) +4000
Tyler Dorsey (Oregon) +4000

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Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/21

Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/21

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