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Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/14

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  • Tuesday's NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/14

    Trends and Indexes

    Tuesday, March 14

    Good Luck on day #73 of 2017!

    NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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    NASCAR Schedule

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • #2
    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

    — Nick Foles signed a 2-year, $11M deal to go back to the Eagles as a backup QB.

    — Since December 1st, Washington Wizards have the best record in the NBA.

    — There were 15,307 pitching changes in 2,430 games in the major leagues LY. Reduce that number by two per game, and games would already be ten minutes shorter.

    — Once again this year, I have to look up what channel TruTV is on my DirecTV; LOL Turns out it is channel 246 and as I type this, Impractical Jokers is on. I watch truTV four days a year.

    — Reading articles about baseball metrics, the amount of data involved now is simply mind-numbing. I love numbers, but some of this stuff goes beyond numbers.

    — World Baseball tournament had sone chaos late Sunday night; the tie-breaker rules were not clearly stated and things got confused- Venezuela advanced instead of Mexico. Not everyone was happy about this.

    **********

    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NCAA tournament trends (mostly)…….

    13) Call me an old guy yelling at kids to get off his lawn, but NBA players making 8-figure salaries taking nights off to “rest” is complete BS. They fly around on private jets, never, ever carry their own luggage, but can’t play on consecutive nights? They’re soft.

    Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t missed a game in his two years in the NBA; nothing soft about him, but he is becoming the exception instead of the rule. Karl Malone played in 80+ games in 17 consecutive non-strike seasons— you don’t think he ever got tired?!?!?!

    12) When Tampa Bay Bucs’ WR Mike Evans was playing at Galveston Ball HS in Texas, the WR on the other side of the field was Phillies OF prospect Nick Williams, who is in AAA with the Phils now, and is their #4 overall prospect, according to Baseball America.

    Now, on to some NCAA tournament trends……..

    11) Over last four years, 16-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in first round games; over last 24 years, the #1 seed in East Region is just 7-16-1 vs spread in the first round.

    10) As I type this, Rhode Island (97%), St Mary’s (96%), UCLA (94%) are getting highest percentage of money wagered on them in their first round games. Most evenly divided action is Princeton (52%)-Notre Dame game. These numbers are at William Hill sports books in Nevada.

    9) Last three years, 14-seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round, with four SU upsets. All four 3-seeds are favored by 12+ points this week, first time since 2009 that all four 3-seeds were a double digit favorite in the first round.

    8) Over last five years, Atlantic 14 teams are 13-8 vs spread in first round games.

    7) This is mostly random but still interesting; you look at 4-13 first round games- the favorite is 16-7 vs spread in the East region, 9-2 in Southeast, 3-6 in Midwest and 3-14 in the West.

    6) Last two years, Big X teams are 3-11 against the spread in the first round;

    5) Last 23 years, the 12-seed in the Midwest is 18-5 vs spread in first round, 15-8 SU; last 10 years, the 12-seed in the West is 8-2 vs spread, winning three of last four SU. Favorites are 10-5 vs spread in 5-12 games in Southeast, 8-4 in East the last 12 years.

    4) Since 2008, Mountain West teams other than San Diego State are 5-22 vs spread in the NCAA tournament, 4-16 in the first round.

    3) 10-seed Wichita State is favored by 6 points over 10-seed Dayton; since 1987, 10-seeds that are favored over a 7-seed are 10-16-1 vs spread. In the last 30 years, this is the most points a 10-seed has been favored by in the first round.

    2) If you look at the eventual national champ the last 11 years, they went 10-1 vs spread in their first round game, exception being Kentucky in 2012, which beat Western Kentucky by 15 in first round, laying 26.5. WKU’s coach then was Ray Harper, who now has Jacksonville State of OVC in the tournament, this year against Louisville in first round.

    OVC teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in first round the last eight years.

    1— Illinois State coach Dan Muller put out a message on Twitter Monday, asking any “Big 5” conference coach to play a home/home series with the Redbirds next season. Muller won’t get any calls, since the Big 5 conference teams don’t have the onions to play true road games. You think Jim Boeheim is getting on a plane and flying to Normal, IL for a game in December?

    Comment


    • #3
      NCAAB
      Long Sheet

      Tuesday, March 14


      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      MOUNT ST MARYS (19 - 15) vs. NEW ORLEANS (20 - 11) - 3/14/2017, 6:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NEW ORLEANS is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
      NEW ORLEANS is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
      NEW ORLEANS is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.


      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      KANSAS ST (20 - 13) vs. WAKE FOREST (19 - 13) - 3/14/2017, 9:10 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      WAKE FOREST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
      WAKE FOREST is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 74-112 ATS (-49.2 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 107-143 ATS (-50.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
      WAKE FOREST is 118-152 ATS (-49.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      UNC-GREENSBORO (25 - 9) at SYRACUSE (18 - 14) - 3/14/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      OLE MISS (20 - 13) at MONMOUTH (27 - 6) - 3/14/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      INDIANA (18 - 15) at GEORGIA TECH (17 - 15) - 3/14/2017, 9:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      VALPARAISO (24 - 8) at ILLINOIS (18 - 14) - 3/14/2017, 7:15 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      CS-BAKERSFIELD (22 - 9) at CALIFORNIA (21 - 12) - 3/14/2017, 11:15 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      CS-BAKERSFIELD is 1-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
      CS-BAKERSFIELD is 1-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      COLL OF CHARLESTON (25 - 9) at COLORADO ST (23 - 11) - 3/14/2017, 9:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      RICHMOND (20 - 12) at ALABAMA (19 - 14) - 3/14/2017, 9:15 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      OAKLAND (24 - 8) at CLEMSON (17 - 15) - 3/14/2017, 8:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
      CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BOISE ST (19 - 11) at UTAH (20 - 11) - 3/14/2017, 10:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      ST FRANCIS-PA (16 - 16) at JACKSONVILLE (17 - 15) - 3/14/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      HOUSTN BAPTIST (17 - 13) at CAMPBELL (17 - 17) - 3/14/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      CANISIUS (18 - 15) at SAMFORD (19 - 15) - 3/14/2017, 7:30 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Wednesday, March 15

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      NC CENTRAL (25 - 8) vs. CAL DAVIS (22 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 6:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      CAL DAVIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons.
      NC CENTRAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
      NC CENTRAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      USC (24 - 9) vs. PROVIDENCE (20 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 9:10 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      PROVIDENCE is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
      PROVIDENCE is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      USC is 1-0 against the spread versus PROVIDENCE over the last 3 seasons
      PROVIDENCE is 1-0 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BELMONT (22 - 6) at GEORGIA (19 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      GEORGIA is 1-0 against the spread versus BELMONT over the last 3 seasons
      GEORGIA is 1-0 straight up against BELMONT over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      TX-ARLINGTON (25 - 8) at BYU (22 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 9:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      AKRON (26 - 8) at HOUSTON (22 - 10) - 3/15/2017, 7:30 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      S DAKOTA (22 - 11) at IOWA (18 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      FRESNO ST (20 - 12) at TCU (19 - 15) - 3/15/2017, 8:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      UC-IRVINE (21 - 14) at ILLINOIS ST (27 - 6) - 3/15/2017, 9:30 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      COLORADO (19 - 14) at UCF (21 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      LOYOLA-MD (15 - 16) at GEORGE MASON (20 - 13) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      HAMPTON (14 - 16) at COASTAL CAROLINA (16 - 17) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      TOLEDO (17 - 16) at GEORGE WASHINGTON (19 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      E WASHINGTON (22 - 11) at WYOMING (18 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 9:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      WI-GREEN BAY (18 - 13) at MISSOURI-KC (17 - 16) - 3/15/2017, 8:05 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      WI-GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI-KC over the last 3 seasons
      WI-GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI-KC over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      SAN FRANCISCO (20 - 12) at RICE (22 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 8:05 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
      SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      UTAH VALLEY ST (15 - 16) at GA SOUTHERN (18 - 14) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BALL ST (21 - 12) at IUPU-FT WAYNE (19 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      FAIRFIELD (16 - 14) at MD-BALT COUNTY (18 - 12) - 3/15/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      GEORGIA ST (20 - 12) at TEXAS A&M CC (20 - 11) - 3/15/2017, 8:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      SF AUSTIN ST (18 - 14) at IDAHO (18 - 13) - 3/15/2017, 11:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Thursday, March 16

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      VIRGINIA TECH (22 - 10) vs. WISCONSIN (25 - 9) - 3/16/2017, 9:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
      VIRGINIA TECH is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      PRINCETON (23 - 6) vs. NOTRE DAME (25 - 9) - 3/16/2017, 12:15 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      PRINCETON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
      PRINCETON is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BUCKNELL (26 - 8) vs. W VIRGINIA (26 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 2:45 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      W VIRGINIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
      BUCKNELL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
      BUCKNELL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
      W VIRGINIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      UNC-WILMINGTON (29 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA (22 - 10) - 3/16/2017, 12:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      UNC-WILMINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
      UNC-WILMINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
      UNC-WILMINGTON is 42-20 ATS (+20.0 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
      UNC-WILMINGTON is 163-126 ATS (+24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
      UNC-WILMINGTON is 100-68 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
      VIRGINIA is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      E TENN ST (27 - 7) vs. FLORIDA (24 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 3:10 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
      FLORIDA is 124-93 ATS (+21.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
      FLORIDA is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
      E TENN ST is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
      E TENN ST is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
      E TENN ST is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
      E TENN ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      FLA GULF COAST (26 - 7) vs. FLORIDA ST (25 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 9:20 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      FLA GULF COAST is 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
      FLA GULF COAST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
      FLORIDA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      XAVIER (21 - 13) vs. MARYLAND (24 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 6:50 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      XAVIER is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
      XAVIER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
      XAVIER is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
      XAVIER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
      XAVIER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
      XAVIER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
      XAVIER is 223-176 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      NEVADA (28 - 6) vs. IOWA ST (23 - 10) - 3/16/2017, 9:55 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      IOWA ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
      IOWA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
      IOWA ST is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      IOWA ST is 153-117 ATS (+24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
      NEVADA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.
      NEVADA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
      NEVADA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
      NEVADA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
      NEVADA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
      NEVADA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      NEVADA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      VERMONT (29 - 5) vs. PURDUE (25 - 7) - 3/16/2017, 7:25 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      PURDUE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      PURDUE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      PURDUE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
      PURDUE is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
      PURDUE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      PURDUE is 1-0 straight up against VERMONT over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      MIDDLE TENN ST (30 - 4) vs. MINNESOTA (24 - 9) - 3/16/2017, 4:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MIDDLE TENN ST is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
      MIDDLE TENN ST is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
      MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
      MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
      MIDDLE TENN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      MINNESOTA is 87-116 ATS (-40.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      WINTHROP (26 - 6) vs. BUTLER (23 - 8) - 3/16/2017, 1:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      BUTLER is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
      BUTLER is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      BUTLER is 70-34 ATS (+32.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
      BUTLER is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
      BUTLER is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
      BUTLER is 70-34 ATS (+32.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
      BUTLER is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
      BUTLER is 79-54 ATS (+19.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
      BUTLER is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
      BUTLER is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
      BUTLER is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
      BUTLER is 210-163 ATS (+30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      S DAKOTA ST (18 - 16) vs. GONZAGA (32 - 1) - 3/16/2017, 2:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      S DAKOTA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
      GONZAGA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games this season.
      GONZAGA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
      GONZAGA is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
      GONZAGA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
      GONZAGA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
      GONZAGA is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
      GONZAGA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      GONZAGA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
      GONZAGA is 34-12 ATS (+20.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.
      S DAKOTA ST is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
      S DAKOTA ST is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      VANDERBILT (19 - 15) vs. NORTHWESTERN (23 - 11) - 3/16/2017, 4:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NORTHWESTERN is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
      NORTHWESTERN is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
      NORTHWESTERN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
      NORTHWESTERN is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      VANDERBILT is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
      VANDERBILT is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
      VANDERBILT is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
      VANDERBILT is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      VANDERBILT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      N DAKOTA (22 - 9) vs. ARIZONA (30 - 4) - 3/16/2017, 9:50 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
      ARIZONA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
      N DAKOTA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
      N DAKOTA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
      N DAKOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
      N DAKOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
      N DAKOTA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
      N DAKOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
      ARIZONA is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 8) vs. ST MARYS-CA (28 - 4) - 3/16/2017, 7:20 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      ST MARYS-CA is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
      ST MARYS-CA is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      ST MARYS-CA is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
      ST MARYS-CA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
      VA COMMONWEALTH is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
      VA COMMONWEALTH is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
      ST MARYS-CA is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      ST PETERS (19 - 13) at ALBANY (21 - 13) - 3/16/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      FURMAN (21 - 11) at USC UPSTATE (17 - 15) - 3/16/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      UNC-ASHEVILLE (23 - 9) at TENN-MARTIN (21 - 12) - 3/16/2017, 8:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      LAMAR (19 - 14) at TEXAS ST (20 - 13) - 3/16/2017, 7:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      TEXAS ST is 1-0 straight up against LAMAR over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      WEBER ST (18 - 13) at CS-FULLERTON (17 - 14) - 3/16/2017, 10:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      STONY BROOK (18 - 13) at IL-CHICAGO (15 - 18) - 3/16/2017, 8:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      IL-CHICAGO is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
      IL-CHICAGO is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
      IL-CHICAGO is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Friday, March 17

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      TROY (22 - 14) vs. DUKE (27 - 8) - 3/17/2017, 7:20 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      TROY is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
      TROY is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
      TROY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
      TROY is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
      TROY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
      TROY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
      TROY is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      DUKE is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) in March games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      MARQUETTE (19 - 12) vs. S CAROLINA (22 - 10) - 3/17/2017, 9:50 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MARQUETTE is 138-95 ATS (+33.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
      S CAROLINA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
      S CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      TEXAS SOUTHERN (22 - 11) vs. N CAROLINA (27 - 7) - 3/17/2017, 4:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      N CAROLINA is 291-239 ATS (+28.1 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
      N CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      SETON HALL (21 - 11) vs. ARKANSAS (25 - 9) - 3/17/2017, 1:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      SETON HALL is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
      SETON HALL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
      SETON HALL is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
      SETON HALL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
      SETON HALL is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
      SETON HALL is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
      ARKANSAS is 76-118 ATS (-53.8 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
      ARKANSAS is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
      ARKANSAS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
      ARKANSAS is 89-134 ATS (-58.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
      ARKANSAS is 60-90 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      JACKSONVILLE ST (20 - 14) vs. LOUISVILLE (24 - 8) - 3/17/2017, 2:45 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      LOUISVILLE is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
      LOUISVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
      JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
      JACKSONVILLE ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
      JACKSONVILLE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
      LOUISVILLE is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      LOUISVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE ST over the last 3 seasons
      LOUISVILLE is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE ST over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      OKLAHOMA ST (20 - 12) vs. MICHIGAN (24 - 11) - 3/17/2017, 12:15 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
      MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
      MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
      OKLAHOMA ST is 114-79 ATS (+27.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      N KENTUCKY (24 - 10) vs. KENTUCKY (29 - 5) - 3/17/2017, 9:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      KENTUCKY is 85-58 ATS (+21.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
      N KENTUCKY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
      N KENTUCKY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      WICHITA ST (30 - 4) vs. DAYTON (24 - 7) - 3/17/2017, 7:10 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      DAYTON is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
      DAYTON is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
      DAYTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) on Friday nights this season.
      WICHITA ST is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
      WICHITA ST is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
      WICHITA ST is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
      WICHITA ST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
      WICHITA ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
      WICHITA ST is 81-54 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      NEW MEXICO ST (28 - 5) vs. BAYLOR (25 - 7) - 3/17/2017, 12:40 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NEW MEXICO ST is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in March games since 1997.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
      BAYLOR is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      MICHIGAN ST (19 - 14) vs. MIAMI (21 - 11) - 3/17/2017, 9:20 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
      MIAMI is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
      MIAMI is 137-104 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
      MICHIGAN ST is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      MICHIGAN ST is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      MICHIGAN ST is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
      MICHIGAN ST is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
      MICHIGAN ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
      MICHIGAN ST is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
      MIAMI is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
      MIAMI is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
      MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
      MIAMI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      IONA (22 - 12) vs. OREGON (29 - 5) - 3/17/2017, 2:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      IONA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
      OREGON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      OREGON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      OREGON is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
      OREGON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
      OREGON is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
      OREGON is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
      OREGON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
      OREGON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
      OREGON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
      IONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      RHODE ISLAND (24 - 9) vs. CREIGHTON (25 - 9) - 3/17/2017, 4:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      CREIGHTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      CREIGHTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      CREIGHTON is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
      RHODE ISLAND is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      KENT ST (22 - 13) vs. UCLA (29 - 4) - 3/17/2017, 9:55 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      KENT ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
      UCLA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
      KENT ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
      KENT ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      KENT ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
      UCLA is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
      UCLA is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
      UCLA is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
      UCLA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Comment


      • #4
        NCAAB
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Tuesday, March 14


        Play-in games, Dayton
        Tuesday

        Mt St Mary’s went 17-4 in a bad NEC, was 2-12 out of conference; they’re 1-10 vs teams in top 200; they haven’t played one since Dec 19. Mountaineers lost this game 71-64 to Albany three years ago. NEC teams are 3-2 overall in play-in games. New Orleans didn’t even have a hoop team six years ago; Privateers won eight of last ten games, are #5 experience team- they start two juniors, three seniors, but they turn ball over 23.9% of time, 3rd-worst in country. Teams from Southland are 1-1 in play-in games.

        Kansas State went 11-1 in its pre-conference schedule then was 9-11 in Big X games; Wildcats won three of last four games; they start three sophs, two seniors. K-State beat Boston College of the ACC 72-54 in November. Wake Forest beat BC three times, by 13-5-14 points. Deacons won four of last five games; they’re 9-3 out of conference. Wake starts three sophs, is #275 experience team. K-State starts two sophs, three seniors, is #218 team in experience. Last six years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in the “varsity (11-seed)” play-in games.

        Wednesday
        North Carolina Central won at Northern Kentucky and Missouri, lost by 6 at Ohio State; they’re 20-3 vs teams outside the top 200. Eagles are most experienced team in country, starting five seniors- they lost by 18 to Iowa State in NCAA’s three years ago. MEAC teams are 3-3 in play-in games, winning last two. Cal-Davis is in NCAA’s for first time; they start two senior guards, are 5-6 vs teams in top 200. Three years ago, Cal Poly of Big West won their play-in game by 12. Last six years, favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread in the “JV (16-seed) ” play-in game.

        Providence beat USC 70-69 in an 8-9 first round game LY, scoring on an OB under play as the game ended, a game Trojans led by 5 with 2:21 left. Friars are in NCAA’s for 4th year in row (1-3 last three years, with USC with only win); they won six of last seven games, are #278 experience team, starting four juniors. Southern Cal is 3-5 in its last eight games; they went 13-0 vs #251 pre-conference schedule. USC is #326 experience team; they start a freshman, three sophs; this is much longer trip for them than for Friars. Trojans are 2-6 vs teams in the top 60.

        Thursday’s NCAA games
        Day games

        Notre Dame lost in regional finals the last two years; they’re 2-7 vs spread in last nine first round games, winning last two years by 4-7 points. Princeton won its last 19 games; their last loss was 96-90 to Monmouth Dec 19. Tigers are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 9-11-11-6 points and a 72-70 win at Bucknell- they’re in NCAA’s for first time since 2011, when they lost 59-57 (+13) as a 13-seed vs Kentucky; Ivy League teams are 5-2 vs spread in first round last seven years (4-3 SU). Princeton played Sunday, now has early game Thursday; not best scenario.

        Virginia went 9-7 down stretch after starting season 16-3; they won four of last five games, with all four wins by 10+ points. Cavaliers play slowest-tempo games in country, are #16 team in country at protecting ball. NC-Wilmington won its last seven games; they’re 11-2 outside CAA, with one of losses by 14 at Clemson of ACC. Seahawks are #57 experience team, starting three seniors, two sophomores; they force turnovers 20.4% of time. Virginia won their last three first round games, by 11-12-36 points. Since ’09, CAA teams are 8-2 vs spread in first round games. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 first round games.

        Winthrop is in NCAA’s for first time since 2010; they’re #31 experience team, starting three seniors and a junior. Eagles lost by 14 at Florida St, 16 at Dayton- they won at Illinois in their games vs “bigtime” teams. Winthrop makes 38% of its 3-pointers, accounting for 36.7% of their points. Butler lost its last two games, split their last ten games; they’re 5-1 vs teams outside top 100, with three wins by 16+ points. Bulldogs won first round games the last two years, by 8-10 points. Since ’08, Big South teams are 2-5 vs spread in first round games.

        Gonzaga hammered South Dakota 102-65 Dec 21; Coyotes finished four games ahead of rival South Dakota State in Summit standings- does that make Zags overconfident here? Over last seven years, Gonzaga is 5-2 vs spread in first round games; last time they were a 1-seed (’13) they won their first round game 64-58. Jackrabbits lost first six D-I games this season; they lost by 29 at Cal, 12 to East Tennessee St, 28 at Northern Iowa, 22 to Wichita State in non-league games vs good teams. Since ’03, Summit League teams are 4-8-2 vs spread in first round, 4-4 last eight years.

        Bucknell won 18 of its last 21 games, winning last six; they lost by 20 at Wake Forest, by 26 at Butler, but also won at Vanderbilt. Patriot League teams are 0-4 vs spread in this round the last four years, losing by 12-40-41-39 points; Bucknell is in tourney for first time since 68-56 (+3) loss to Butler four years ago. West Virginia lost in first round LY to SF Austin; Mountaineers force turnovers 28.1% of time, #1 in country- they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight first round games. Last three years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 first round games.

        Florida lost three of last four games, all to Vandy/Kentucky; Gators are 19-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 50- this is coach White’s first NCAA tourney in his sixth year as a head coach. East Tennessee State won 13 of its last 15 games; they’re #7 experience team in country, starting a junior, four seniors. Buccaneers played two SEC teams this year, losing to Tennessee by 4 at home, winning by 2 at Miss State- ETSU coach Forbes was an assistant at Tennessee for six years. Last three years, dogs are 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 first round games.

        5-seed Minnesota is a 1-point favorite over 12-seed Middle Tennessee? Gophers are in NCAA tourney for first time since ’13; they’ve won nine of last 11 games, but lost senior G Springs over weekend- they played only six guys in last game (three played 39:00+). Blue Raiders beat Michigan St in first round LY; they’re 20-1 in last 21 games, 5-1 vs top 100 teams, with wins over UNCW, Ole Miss, Vandy, Belmont. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 8-14 vs spread (12-8 SU) in first round games. Last six years, C-USA teams are 4-2 vs spread in this round.

        Northwestern is in NCAA’s for first time, despite going 5-7 in its last 12 games; Wildcats are 4-6 vs top 40 teams this season, with best win at Wisconsin- they start two juniors, two seniors, are healthier now with Lindsey (mono) back in lineup. Vanderbilt won seven of its last nine games; they were only 6-6 in pre-conference games, going 0-5 vs top 50 teams- they’re 6-9 overall vs top 50 teams this season. Drew was in NCAA’s twice as Valpo’s coach, losing first round games by 3-11 points. Commodores are 1-5 in last six NCAA tournament games.

        Night games
        Maryland is #317 experience team, playing three frosh around star PG Trimble; Terps are 4-6 in their last ten games after a 20-2 start when they won eight games by 6 or less points- they beat Georgetown by point in only game vs Big East foe. Xavier lost seven of last ten games; two of three wins were over doormat DePaul; Musketeers are 6-7 since Somner got hurt, but Bluiett is back, playing 38:00+ in seven games since he returned. Xavier played three starters 38:00+ in last game, a 4th kid 34:00- they’re 9-3 in last 12 first round games. Underdogs are 5-3 SU in 6-11 games the last two years.

        VCU split its last six games after a 23-5 start; Rams are 4-2 in last six first round games- they’re #40 experience team, forcing turnovers 21% of time (#36)- they start four seniors. St Mary’s is in NCAA’s for first time since ’13; 2-3 vs top 60 teams, with three losses to Gonzaga, wins over Dayton, Nevada back in November (VCU split pair with Dayton). Gaels are #84 experience team, playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country; they start three juniors, two seniors- they’ve got #4 eFG% in country. Last six years, underdogs are 14-9-1 vs spread in 7-10 games.

        Purdue lost in first round LY as a 5-seed; their last tourney win was in ’12. Boilers won eight of last ten games with both losses to Michigan- they’re #23 experience team- no seniors start. Vermont won its last 21 games, is in its first NCAA since 2012; Catamounts lost to Providence by 22, Butler by 12, So Carolina by 18; their best win was over #111 Harvard. Vermont is #93 experience team, but start only one senior. America East teams are 6-6 vs spread in last 12 tourney games, but Albany was 5-1, rest of league is 1-5 vs spread. Last three years, underdog is 7-5 vs spread in 4-13 games— since ’13, single digit underdogs are 5-4 in 4-13 games.

        Florida State is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012; they split last four first round games (1-3 vs spread). Seminoles split their last eight games- they’re #306 experience team, starting frosh and two sophs- their bench plays #23 minutes in country. FSU is 11-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with ten wins by 14+ points- the only loss was to Temple. Florida Gulf Coast won 19 of last 21 games; they’re 0-3 vs top 50 teams, losing by 21 to Florida, 1 at Michigan St, 9 at Baylor- they lost by 16 to UNC in this round LY. Last four years, double digit favorites are 4-3 vs spread in 4-13 games.

        Virginia Tech is in NCAA’s for first time since ’07; Hokies are 2-0 vs Big 14 teams, winning by 3 at Michigan, by 13 over Nebraska on neutral floor. Tech starts two juniors, two seniors; they’re #103 experience team- they make 40.3% of their 3’s (#9 in country). Wisconsin beat Syracuse by 17, lost by 15 to UNC; Badgers are 4-6 in last 10 games (3-1 in last four)- they start four seniors, but are #306 at defending arc (37.7%). Last three years, favorites are 6-4 vs spread in 8-9 games; last five years, favorites of 4+ points are 6-2 vs spread in 8-9 games.

        Arizona won five of its last six first round games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight first round games, 4-6 in last 10 first round games when laying double digits. When Wildcats won Pac-12 tourney two years ago, they won first round game by 21. Arizona is #323 experience team, with two frosh and a soph starting. North Dakota is here for first time; Hawks went 2-5 vs D-I teams in pre-conference. UND plays #34 tempo in country. Big Sky teams lost last ten NCAA 1st round games (2-8 vs spread); last SU winner was Montana in ’06.

        Since ’08, Mountain West teams other than San Diego State are 5-22 vs spread in NCAA tournament, 4-16 in the first round. Nevada is in NCAA’s for first time since ’07; they’ve got a former NBA coach, start three sophs- their bench plays 2nd-least minutes in country. Since ’94, underdogs in 5-12 game in this region are 18-5 vs spread, 15-8 SU. Over last four years, dogs are 11-5 vs spread in 5-12 games. Iowa State is #6 experience team in country, starting four seniors; they’re 4-1 in last five first round games, with all four wins by 13+ points.

        Comment


        • #5
          NCAAB

          Tuesday, March 14


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Trend Report
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          7:00 PM
          UNC GREENSBORO vs. SYRACUSE
          The total has gone OVER in 8 of UNC Greensboro's last 9 games on the road
          UNC Greensboro is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          Syracuse is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
          Syracuse is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

          7:00 PM
          MISSISSIPPI vs. MONMOUTH
          Mississippi is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
          Mississippi is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Monmouth's last 5 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Monmouth's last 6 games at home

          7:15 PM
          VALPARAISO vs. ILLINOIS
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Valparaiso's last 5 games on the road
          Valparaiso is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois's last 7 games at home
          Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

          7:30 PM
          CANISIUS vs. SAMFORD
          No trends available
          Samford is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
          The total has gone OVER in 14 of Samford's last 20 games

          8:00 PM
          OAKLAND vs. CLEMSON
          Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 10 of Clemson's last 13 games at home
          Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

          9:00 PM
          GEORGIA TECH vs. INDIANA
          Georgia Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 5 games on the road
          Indiana is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games

          9:00 PM
          COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON vs. COLORADO STATE
          College of Charleston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
          Colorado State is 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado State's last 5 games

          9:10 PM
          WAKE FOREST vs. KANSAS STATE
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas State's last 7 games

          9:15 PM
          RICHMOND vs. ALABAMA
          No trends available
          Alabama is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Alabama's last 7 games

          10:00 PM
          BOISE STATE vs. UTAH
          Boise State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games at home
          Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

          11:15 PM
          CS BAKERSFIELD vs. CALIFORNIA
          CS Bakersfield is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          California is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
          California is 8-13-2 ATS in its last 23 games at home


          Wednesday, March 15

          7:00 PM
          UTAH VALLEY vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
          Utah Valley is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia Southern's last 10 games at home
          Georgia Southern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

          7:00 PM
          BALL STATE vs. IUPU FORT WAYNE
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ball State's last 6 games on the road
          No trends available

          7:00 PM
          FAIRFIELD vs. UMBC
          Fairfield is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
          No trends available

          7:00 PM
          BELMONT vs. GEORGIA
          Belmont is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Belmont's last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games at home
          Georgia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

          7:00 PM
          COLORADO vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
          The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado's last 9 games on the road
          Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 6 games at home
          Central Florida is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home

          7:00 PM
          LOYOLA vs. GEORGE MASON
          No trends available
          George Mason is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
          George Mason is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

          7:00 PM
          SOUTH DAKOTA vs. IOWA
          No trends available
          Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
          The total has gone OVER in 6 of Iowa's last 8 games at home

          7:00 PM
          TOLEDO vs. GEORGE WASHINGTON
          The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toledo's last 12 games on the road
          Toledo is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
          George Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of George Washington's last 7 games

          7:30 PM
          AKRON vs. HOUSTON
          Akron is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Akron's last 7 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games at home
          Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

          8:00 PM
          FRESNO STATE vs. TCU
          Fresno State is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games on the road
          TCU is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games

          8:00 PM
          SAN FRANCISCO vs. RICE
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
          Rice is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rice's last 5 games at home

          8:00 PM
          GEORGIA STATE vs. TEXAS A&M C.C.
          Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
          Georgia State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
          No trends available

          8:05 PM
          WISC-GREEN BAY vs. UMKC
          No trends available
          UMKC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
          UMKC is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

          9:00 PM
          TEXAS-ARLINGTON vs. BYU
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas-Arlington's last 6 games on the road
          Texas-Arlington is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
          BYU is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games
          BYU is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home

          9:00 PM
          EASTERN WASHINGTON vs. WYOMING
          Eastern Washington is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Eastern Washington's last 12 games on the road
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wyoming's last 8 games at home
          Wyoming is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home

          9:10 PM
          USC vs. PROVIDENCE
          No trends available
          Providence is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

          9:30 PM
          UC IRVINE vs. ILLINOIS STATE
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UC Irvine's last 5 games on the road
          UC Irvine is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
          Illinois State is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois State's last 6 games

          11:00 PM
          STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. IDAHO
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho's last 5 games at home
          Idaho is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


          Thursday, March 16

          12:15 PM
          PRINCETON vs. NOTRE DAME
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Notre Dame's last 7 games
          Notre Dame is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

          12:40 PM
          UNC WILMINGTON vs. VIRGINIA
          No trends available
          Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia's last 8 games

          1:30 PM
          WINTHROP vs. BUTLER
          No trends available
          Butler is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

          2:00 PM
          SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. GONZAGA
          No trends available
          Gonzaga is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
          Gonzaga is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games

          2:45 PM
          BUCKNELL vs. WEST VIRGINIA
          No trends available
          West Virginia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
          West Virginia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

          3:10 PM
          EAST TENNESSEE STATE vs. FLORIDA
          No trends available
          Florida is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games

          TBA
          LAMAR vs. TEXAS STATE
          No trends available
          Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Lamar
          Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

          4:00 PM
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MINNESOTA
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games
          Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

          4:30 PM
          VANDERBILT vs. NORTHWESTERN
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games

          6:50 PM
          XAVIER vs. MARYLAND
          No trends available
          Maryland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
          Maryland is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games

          7:00 PM
          SAINT PETER'S vs. ALBANY
          Saint Peter's is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          No trends available

          7:00 PM
          FURMAN vs. USC UPSTATE
          Furman is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Furman's last 6 games on the road
          No trends available

          7:20 PM
          VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs. ST. MARY'S
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 6 games
          St. Mary's is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

          7:27 PM
          VERMONT vs. PURDUE
          No trends available
          Purdue is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
          Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

          8:00 PM
          STONY BROOK vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 6 games
          Illinois-Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

          8:00 PM
          UNC ASHEVILLE vs. TENNESSEE-MARTIN
          No trends available
          Tennessee-Martin is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
          Tennessee-Martin is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

          9:20 PM
          FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. FLORIDA STATE
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games
          Florida State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

          9:40 PM
          VIRGINIA TECH vs. WISCONSIN
          No trends available
          Wisconsin is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
          Wisconsin is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

          9:50 PM
          NORTH DAKOTA vs. ARIZONA
          No trends available
          Arizona is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

          9:57 PM
          NEVADA vs. IOWA STATE
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa State's last 5 games
          Iowa State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

          10:00 PM
          WEBER STATE vs. CS FULLERTON
          Weber State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Weber State's last 5 games on the road
          CS Fullerton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
          CS Fullerton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


          Friday, March 17

          12:15 PM
          PRINCETON vs. NOTRE DAME
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Notre Dame's last 7 games
          Notre Dame is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

          12:40 PM
          UNC WILMINGTON vs. VIRGINIA
          No trends available
          Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia's last 8 games

          1:30 PM
          WINTHROP vs. BUTLER
          No trends available
          Butler is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

          2:00 PM
          SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. GONZAGA
          No trends available
          Gonzaga is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
          Gonzaga is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games

          2:45 PM
          BUCKNELL vs. WEST VIRGINIA
          No trends available
          West Virginia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
          West Virginia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

          3:10 PM
          EAST TENNESSEE STATE vs. FLORIDA
          No trends available
          Florida is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
          The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games

          TBA
          LAMAR vs. TEXAS STATE
          No trends available
          Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Lamar
          Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

          4:00 PM
          MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. MINNESOTA
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games
          Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

          4:30 PM
          VANDERBILT vs. NORTHWESTERN
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games

          6:50 PM
          XAVIER vs. MARYLAND
          No trends available
          Maryland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
          Maryland is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games

          7:00 PM
          SAINT PETER'S vs. ALBANY
          Saint Peter's is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
          No trends available

          7:00 PM
          FURMAN vs. USC UPSTATE
          Furman is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Furman's last 6 games on the road
          No trends available

          7:20 PM
          VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs. ST. MARY'S
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 6 games
          St. Mary's is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

          7:27 PM
          VERMONT vs. PURDUE
          No trends available
          Purdue is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
          Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

          8:00 PM
          STONY BROOK vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 6 games
          Illinois-Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

          8:00 PM
          UNC ASHEVILLE vs. TENNESSEE-MARTIN
          No trends available
          Tennessee-Martin is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
          Tennessee-Martin is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

          9:20 PM
          FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. FLORIDA STATE
          No trends available
          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games
          Florida State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

          9:40 PM
          VIRGINIA TECH vs. WISCONSIN
          No trends available
          Wisconsin is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
          Wisconsin is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

          9:50 PM
          NORTH DAKOTA vs. ARIZONA
          No trends available
          Arizona is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

          9:57 PM
          NEVADA vs. IOWA STATE
          No trends available
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Iowa State's last 5 games
          Iowa State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

          10:00 PM
          WEBER STATE vs. CS FULLERTON
          Weber State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Weber State's last 5 games on the road
          CS Fullerton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
          CS Fullerton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 01:51 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            NCAAB
            Dunkel

            Tuesday, March 14



            Canisius @ Samford

            Game 581-582
            March 14, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Canisius
            52.952
            Samford
            53.695
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Samford
            by 1
            169
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Samford
            by 4
            164
            Dunkel Pick:
            Canisius
            (+4); Over

            Houston Baptist @ Campbell


            Game 579-580
            March 14, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Houston Baptist
            48.892
            Campbell
            51.420
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Campbell
            by 2 1/2
            157
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Houston Baptist
            by 1
            152
            Dunkel Pick:
            Campbell
            (+1); Over

            St. Francis-PA @ Jacksonville


            Game 577-578
            March 14, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            St. Francis-PA
            48.029
            Jacksonville
            54.485
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Jacksonville
            by 6 1/2
            164
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Jacksonville
            by 2
            157
            Dunkel Pick:
            Jacksonville
            (-2); Over

            Boise State @ Utah


            Game 561-562
            March 14, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Boise State
            56.878
            Utah
            70.415
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Utah
            by 13 1/2
            161
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Utah
            by 10 1/2
            155 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Utah
            (-10 1/2); Over

            Oakland @ Clemson


            Game 559-560
            March 14, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Oakland
            57.030
            Clemson
            71.001
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Clemson
            by 14
            160
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Clemson
            by 10 1/2
            155 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Clemson
            (-10 1/2); Over

            Richmond @ Alabama


            Game 557-558
            March 14, 2017 @ 9:15 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Richmond
            58.990
            Alabama
            68.606
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Alabama
            by 9 1/2
            142
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Alabama
            by 7 1/2
            137 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Alabama
            (-7 1/2); Over

            Coll of Charleston @ Colorado State


            Game 555-556
            March 14, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Coll of Charlesto
            59.337
            Colorado State
            65.987
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Colorado State
            by 6 1/2
            126
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Colorado State
            by 3 1/2
            135
            Dunkel Pick:
            Colorado State
            (-3 1/2); Under

            CS-Bakersfield @ California


            Game 553-554
            March 14, 2017 @ 11:15 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            CS-Bakersfield
            54.816
            California
            67.667
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            California
            by 13
            118
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            California
            by 10 1/2
            123
            Dunkel Pick:
            California
            (-10 1/2); Under

            Valparaiso @ Illinois


            Game 551-552
            March 14, 2017 @ 7:15 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Valparaiso
            64.679
            Illinois
            69.132
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Illinois
            by 4 1/2
            144
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Illinois
            by 8 1/2
            138
            Dunkel Pick:
            Valparaiso
            (+8 1/2); Over

            Indiana @ Georgia Tech


            Game 549-550
            March 14, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Indiana
            66.799
            Georgia Tech
            66.580
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Georgia Tech
            Even
            147
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Indiana
            by 3
            142 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Georgia Tech
            (+3); Over

            Ole Miss @ Monmouth


            Game 547-548
            March 14, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Ole Miss
            64.842
            Monmouth
            63.704
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Ole Miss
            by 1
            167
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Monmouth
            by 3
            161
            Dunkel Pick:
            Ole Miss
            (+3); Over

            NC-Greensboro @ Syracuse


            Game 545-546
            March 14, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            NC-Greensboro
            58.695
            Syracuse
            66.171
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Syracuse
            by 7 1/2
            156
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Syracuse
            by 13
            145
            Dunkel Pick:
            NC-Greensboro
            (+13); Over

            Kansas State @ Wake Forest


            Game 543-544
            March 14, 2017 @ 9:10 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Kansas State
            67.381
            Wake Forest
            72.261
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Wake Forest
            by 5
            146
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Wake Forest
            Pick
            152 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Wake Forest
            Under

            Mt St Mary's @ New Orleans


            Game 541-542
            March 14, 2017 @ 6:40 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Mt St Mary's
            48.357
            New Orleans
            52.154
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            New Orleans
            by 4
            124
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            New Orleans
            by 1 1/2
            131 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            New Orleans
            (-1 1/2); Under
            Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 01:52 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              These five March Madness games drawing plenty of early betting action

              “Historically, the public loves betting on Notre Dame in any sport, so you might be getting some value in a 7-point Princeton ‘dog.”

              A day after the NCAA Tournament bracket was unveiled, there were several games drawing bettors’ interest and forcing line moves. Patrick Everson checks in on where the action is with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and with the lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets.eu.

              No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers – Open: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5

              When it comes to final scores, there’s certainly no hotter team than Vermont in the NCAA Tournament. The Catamounts, seeded 13th in the Midwest Region, have won 21 consecutive games, although only eight of those were lined contests, including three in the America East tournament. Vermont (29-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) edged Albany 56-53 as a 10.5-point favorite in Saturday’s conference final.

              Fourth-seeded Purdue won the Big Ten regular-season title, but bowed out in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, losing 74-70 in overtime as a 2.5-point fave against Michigan. Prior to that, the Boilermakers (25-7 SU, 17-10-2 ATS) had an 8-1 SU run (5-2-2 ATS) to cap the regular season.

              “This is the region where we’ve taken the most action on games,” Stoneback said of the Midwest. “Vermont opened as a 9.5-point ‘dog, and they’re getting 8.5 points now against Purdue.”

              Vermont and Purdue tip off at 7:27 p.m. ET Thursday.


              No. 11 Southern California Trojans vs. No. 11 Providence Friars – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -3

              These two teams hope to play their way into the field of 64. Providence (20-12 SU and ATS) won its last six regular-season games (5-1 ATS) to land a spot in the NCAA Tournament, despite losing its Big East tournament opener 70-58 as a 2-point underdog to Creighton.

              Southern Cal (24-9 SU, 16-16 ATS) had a four-game skid late in the regular season that had some analysts thinking the Trojans wouldn’t get into the Big Dance. But the Men of Troy bounced back with three straight wins, then played UCLA very tough in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals, losing 76-74 as a 10-point pup.

              “Everyone jumped on USC pretty quickly, pushing the line from pick to Trojans -1,” GTBets’ lines manager said Monday morning. “But that hasn’t deterred the action from remaining at 65 percent on USC.”

              In fact, the Trojans moved up to -3 by Monday afternoon and were the only tournament team really catching the attention of professional bettors.

              “We’ve seen nothing sharp yet, except on USC,” Stoneback said. “We opened USC -1, and now it’s 2.5.”

              The winner of this contest, at 9:10 p.m. ET Wednesday, moves into the East Regional to face No. 6 seed Southern Methodist.


              No. 15 Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. No. 2 Louisville Cardinals – Open: -21; Move: -20

              As a 15 seed, Jacksonville State is rightly a huge underdog in this 2:45 p.m. ET Friday game in the Midwest Region. The Gamecocks (20-14 SU, 17-12 ATS) won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever. In the OVC final, fourth-seeded Jacksonville State beat No. 2 seed Tennessee-Martin 66-55 as a 2.5-point chalk.

              Louisville (24-8 SU, 17-12-1 ATS) has been a little up-and-down of late, alternating wins and losses over its last six games while going 1-5 ATS. The Cardinals were seeded fourth in the ACC tourney, losing 81-77 to Duke as a 2-point favorite in the quarterfinals.

              Stoneback said the public was on Jacksonville State early at +21, drawing that number down a point to +20.


              No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: -1

              It’s another play-in game, this one at 9:10 p.m. ET Tuesday night, for the right to play No. 6 seed Cincinnati in the South Region. Wake Forest had a four-game run through the first round of the ACC tournament, including regular-season wins at home over Louisville and on the road against Virginia Tech. But in the second round of the ACC, the Demon Deacons (19-13 SU, 16-14 ATS) fell to VaTech 99-90 laying 3 points.

              Kansas State (20-13 SU, 15-12-2 ATS) nearly made it to the Big 12 tournament championship game from the No. 6 seed. The Wildcats upended No. 3 seed Baylor in the quarterfinals, then gave West Virginia all it could handle in a 51-50 loss as a 6-point pup in the semis.

              “The public is on Wake, with 3/1 parlays on the Demon Deacons and 60 percent of the side bets,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “But the sharp action has yet to come in.”


              No. 12 Princeton Tigers vs. No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -7

              Notre Dame has been stout over the past month-plus, winning six in a row as part of an 8-1 SU spree (7-2 ATS) that put it in the ACC championship game. The Fighting Irish (25-9 SU, 18-9-1 ATS) then fell to Duke 75-69 getting 4.5 points.

              Princeton (23-6 SU, 12-10-1 ATS) won the Ivy League tournament, dropping Yale 71-59 as a 7-point chalk in the championship game to stretch its winning streak to 19 games. The league title gave the Tigers a spot in one of the NCAA Tournament’s first games Thursday, a 12:15 p.m. ET tipoff in the West Region.

              “The Irish opened as a 7.5 point favorite, and after some back and forth, the line has settled at 7,” GTBets’ lines manager said, adding Notre Dame had a 2/1 margin in bets. “Historically, the public loves betting on Notre Dame in any sport, so you might be getting some value in a 7-point Princeton ‘dog.”
              Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 01:54 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                68 need-to-know betting notes for 68 NCAA Tournament teams

                Don't dare place a bet on the NCAA tournament or fill out a bracket without first going over Joe Fortenbaugh's 68 need-to-know notes for every single team in the Big Dance.

                As Joe Fortenbaugh does each and every year within this column, he begins with the basics: A 16-seed has never defeated a 1-seed, only eight 15-seeds have found success against 2-seeds (Middle Tennessee upset No. 2 Michigan State last year), no team seeded 13th or lower has ever advanced to the Elite Eight and only three teams seeded 11th or lower have ever reached the Final Four.

                Additionally, no team seeded ninth or lower has ever won the NCAA tournament, with eighth-seeded Villanova (1985) still standing as the biggest shocker in college basketball history to win the Dance.

                Now that you’ve officially completed March Madness 101, it’s time to commence your 200-level courses.

                1 SEEDS

                Villanova Wildcats (31-3 SU, 18-15 ATS, 11-22 O/U): Since the commencement of the 2015-2016 regular season, the UNDER is 43-26-1 (.623) in all lined games featuring Villanova. Additionally, the Wildcats enter March Madness having watched the UNDER cash in 16 of their last 22 contests (.727).

                Kansas Jayhawks (28-4 SU, 11-18-1 ATS, 14-16 O/U): Lasted all of 40 minutes in the Big 12 tournament before falling 85-82 vs. TCU as a 9-point favorite. Take note that over the last six years, the UNDER is 5-1 in first-round March Madness games played by the Jayhawks.

                North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7 SU, 16-14-2 ATS, 12-19-1 O/U): This is the seventh time the Tar Heels have earned a No. 1 seed under head coach Roy Williams. Of the previous six instances, two resulted in National Championship victories, one resulted in a National Championship defeat, one resulted in a Final Four appearance and the remaining two resulted in trips to the Elite Eight. In addition, be advised that the UNDER is 9-3-1 in UNC’s last 13 outings.

                Gonzaga Bulldogs (32-1 SU, 22-7-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Over the last seven years, the Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS during the first round of March Madness (UNDER is 4-3 during that stretch).


                2 SEEDS

                Kentucky Wildcats (29-5 SU, 18-16 ATS, 17-17 O/U): Head coach John Calipari has his Wildcats peaking at just the right time, as Kentucky enters March Madness riding an 11-game winning streak (6-5 ATS). From a totals perspective, be advised that the UNDER has cashed in eight of the Wildcats’ last ten outings.

                Arizona Wildcats (30-4 SU, 18-14-2 ATS, 16-17-1 O/U): Sean Miller’s Wildcats storm into the tournament having won nine of their last ten outings, which includes four straight point spread covers and three straight OVERS. Additionally, this program should be plenty motivated to deliver a first-round knockout after falling 65-55 to Wichita State as a 6-seed in last year’s opening round.

                Duke Blue Devils (27-8 SU, 15-18-1 ATS, 16-17-1 O/U): Forget everything you thought you knew about this squad prior to last week because Mike Krzyzewski’s program just became the first team in ACC history to win the conference tournament with four victories in four days. The Blue Devils are finally healthy, playing fundamentally sound basketball and enter the Madness having covered the number in four straight matchups. Watch out.

                Louisville Cardinals (24-8 SU, 17-12-1 ATS, 14-15-1 O/U): The UNDER is 7-1 in the Cardinals’ last eight opening-round matchups of the NCAA tournament.


                3 SEEDS


                Oregon Ducks (29-5 SU, 19-14 ATS, 15-18 O/U): Forward Chris Boucher (11.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.5 blocks) is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL in Friday night’s win over California. Oregon has covered the number just twice in its last six outings, but has seen the OVER cash in four of its last five contests.

                Florida State Seminoles (25-8 SU, 17-12-2 ATS, 15-15-1 O/U): This is Florida State’s first trip to the Dance since 2012, so motivation and excitement shouldn’t be an issue. However, the Seminoles are just 1-5 ATS over the school’s last six tournament matchups, with the UNDER cashing at the highly profitable record of 5-1 during that same stretch.

                UCLA Bruins (29-4 SU, 16-17 ATS, 15-16-2 O/U): Squeaked by USC in the Pac-12 tournament 76-74 despite closing as a 10-point favorite before getting rocked by Arizona 86-75 as a 2.5-point favorite. However, if this team gets hot from deep, look out (40.5% 3-point percentage, eighth in NCAA). Take note that the UNDER has cashed in eight of UCLA’s last ten contests.

                Baylor Bears (25-7 SU, 14-13 ATS, 10-16-1 O/U): One-and-done in the Big 12 tournament thanks to a 70-64 loss vs. Kansas State as a 4.5-point favorite, one-and-done in the NCAA tournament last season (79-75 loss vs. Yale as 5.5-point favorite) as well as two years ago (57-56 loss vs. Georgia State as 9.5-point favorite). Exercise extreme caution here.


                4 SEEDS

                Butler Bulldogs (23-8 SU, 17-12 ATS, 14-13-2 O/U): The Bulldogs have appeared in a minimum of two March Madness games in each of the program’s last five trips to the Dance. And during those five aforementioned trips, Butler has gone an astounding 14-2-2 ATS.

                Florida Gators (24-8 SU, 17-13 ATS, 14-16 O/U): A nine-game winning streak from January 25 to February 21 quickly turned into three losses in four outings culminating with a one-and-done conference tournament appearance for the Gators. However, since this is Florida’s first trip to the Dance in three years, expect the Gators to show at least a semblance of pop in the opening rounds.

                West Virginia Mountaineers (26-8 SU, 13-15-1 ATS, 16-12-1 O/U): The Mountaineers enter the tournament having covered the point spread just once over the team’s last eight games. Additionally, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in West Virginia’s last four March Madness showdowns.

                Purdue Boilermakers (25-7 SU, 17-10-2 ATS, 16-12-1 O/U): Had won eight of nine games entering the Big Ten tournament, but bowed out immediately courtesy of a 74-70 overtime loss vs. Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite. The Boilermakers haven’t won a Madness matchup since March of 2012 (72-69 vs. Saint Mary’s), going 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS since that victory.


                5 SEEDS

                Note: A 12-seed has defeated a 5-seed in every tournament from 2001-2016, with the exception of 2007.

                Virginia Cavaliers (22-10 SU, 18-12 ATS, 10-19-1 O/U): When you think Virginia, you think UNDER. That’s because the Cavaliers execute one of the slowest tempos in the country, as evidenced by the fact that the program ranked just 296th in total field goal attempts this season. As for those UNDERS, note that the UNDER hit in six straight Virginia games to conclude the regular season, with just two OVERS cashing over the team’s final 14 contests.

                Minnesota Golden Gophers (24-9 SU, 19-12 ATS, 18-13 O/U): The Gophers covered the number in eight of their final 11 contests entering the NCAA tournament and have seen the OVER cash in 11 of the program’s last 14 outings.

                Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25-9 SU, 18-9-1 ATS, 14-13-1 O/U): How’s this for a disciplined, focused program: Notre Dame finished the 2016-2017 regular season ranked first in the country in turnovers per game (9.4) and fifth in personal fouls per game (14.9). Not only that, but no team in all the land is more effective from the free throw line than Notre Dame (79.9%, first in NCAA). Additionally, the Irish transformed a four-game losing streak in late January into an 8-2 SU mark over the school’s final ten games entering the Madness.

                Iowa State Cyclones (23-10 SU, 18-12 ATS, 18-12 O/U): Claimed the Big 12 tournament title for the third time in four years with an 80-74 win and cover over West Virginia. Speaking of covers, the Cyclones have covered the number in eight of their last ten outings and enter the tournament having witnessed the OVER cashing in nine straight contests.


                6 SEEDS

                SMU Mustangs (30-4 SU, 22-6-1 ATS, 16-12-1 O/U): The Mustangs have failed to cover the number in only four of the school’s last 23 contests. Additionally, the OVER has cashed in seven of SMU’s last eight matchups, with that lone dissenter being ruled a push in the AAC championship game against Cincinnati.

                Cincinnati Bearcats (29-5 SU, 16-14-1 ATS, 15-16 O/U): Had emerged victorious in 22 of 24 matchups prior to Sunday’s 71-56 defeat in the AAC title game suffered at the hands of SMU. One-and-done in three of their last four trips to the Dance, with no Sweet 16 appearances since the 2011-2012 campaign.

                Maryland Terrapins (24-8 SU, 15-12-3 ATS, 14-15-1 O/U): Maryland is just 1-5 ATS over its last six NCAA tournament games and 4-11 ATS over its last 15 showdowns with Big East opposition (vs. Xavier in first round).

                Creighton Bluejays (25-9 SU, 19-13 ATS, 13-19 O/U): The Bluejays are an abysmal 1-8-1 ATS over their last ten NCAA tournament showdowns, but have seen the UNDER cash in six of the school’s last seven outings.


                7 SEEDS

                Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-4 SU, 16-11-2 ATS, 12-17 O/U): The Gaels are a rock-solid 13-4-1 ATS over their last 18 out-of-conference matchups and 5-1-1 ATS over the program’s last seven games overall. In addition, take note that the UNDER is 5-0 in the Gaels’ previous five NCAA tournament games and 4-1 in the program’s last five non-conference showdowns.

                South Carolina Gamecocks (22-10 SU, 11-16-2 ATS, 11-17-1 O/U): The Gamecocks failed to cover the spread in nine of the team’s final ten games entering the NCAA tournament. However, be advised that this is South Carolina’s first trip to the Dance since March of 2004 (59-43 loss vs. Memphis), so motivation and focus should not be an issue.

                Michigan Wolverines (24-11 SU, 16-16 ATS, 19-12-1 O/U): Without question the most fascinating story entering the Madness, as the Wolverines went from having their team plane skid off the runway in Ypsilanti, Michigan during an aborted takeoff last Wednesday to winning the school’s first Big Ten tournament championship (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) as the lowest seed (No. 8) to win the postseason tournament in conference history. But can the Wolverines keep the magic flowing for another week?

                Dayton Flyers (24-7 SU, 19-10 ATS, 17-12 O/U): The Flyers enter the tournament having covered the point spread in 14 of the school’s last 20 games overall. Additionally, the OVER has cashed in 11 of Dayton’s last 12 contests overall.


                8 SEEDS

                Wisconsin Badgers (25-9 SU, 15-16 ATS, 12-16-3 O/U): Covered the number only four times over their final 12 games of the season and enter the tournament having dropped six of their last ten matchups overall. Not exactly the form you’re looking for come Dance time.

                Miami Hurricanes (21-11 SU, 11-19 ATS, 9-20-1 O/U): The Hurricanes roll into the Dance having dropped three of their last four games and are an alarming 1-4 ATS over their last five tourney showdowns. However, be advised that the UNDER has cashed in six straight Miami matchups and is 5-0-1 in the Hurricanes’ last six neutral site contests.

                Arkansas Razorbacks (25-9 SU, 17-15 ATS, 16-16 O/U): Arkansas is dancing for just the second time since the 2008-2009 campaign and enters the tournament having won eight of its previous ten outings. Be advised that the UNDER has cashed in five of the Razorbacks’ last six contests. One-and-done is likely the upside for this squad, as a second-round matchup with top-seeded North Carolina is likely on the horizon.

                Northwestern Wildcats (23-11 SU, 19-12 ATS, 11-18-2 O/U): FINALLY! For the first time in school history, Northwestern is dancing! And not only that, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS over their last six non-conference showdowns. Also note that the UNDER is 10-4 in the Wildcats’ last 14 neutral site matchups. However, be advised that Northwestern’s first-round opponent is a Vanderbilt squad that has covered the number in eight of its last nine games.


                9 SEEDS

                Vanderbilt Commodores (19-15 SU, 20-12 ATS, 13-18-1 O/U): The UNDER has cashed in each of Vanderbilt’s last three outings as well as in seven of the Commodores’ last eight games overall. Vandy enters the tourney streaking having covered the number in eight of its last nine matchups, but be advised that this squad is 1-5 ATS over its last six March Madness games and 1-6 ATS over its last seven encounters with Big Ten opposition.

                Seton Hall Pirates (21-11 SU, 14-16-1 ATS, 14-17 O/U): Get this: Seton Hall is a highly profitable 19-7 ATS over its last 26 games as an underdog and 40-19 ATS over its last 59 outings as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. The Pirates opened up offshore as 1-point underdogs for their opening round matchup against Arkansas.

                Michigan State Spartans (19-14 SU, 17-15 ATS, 15-17 O/U): Sparty is just 3-8 ATS over its last 11 neutral site games and enters the tournament having dropped three of its last four outings. However, it’s worth noting that the OVER is 21-7 in the last 28 games in which Michigan State has been listed as an underdog. It’s always a risk to discount or discredit Spartans head coach Tom Izzo, who has guided Michigan State to at least two tournament wins in four of the last five seasons.

                Virginia Tech Hokies (22-10 SU, 16-11-1 ATS, 14-14 O/U): Virginia Tech enters March Madness having gone 8-1-1 ATS over its last ten matchups and 6-1 ATS over the program’s last seven neutral site games. Additionally, pay close attention to the total in this showdown (vs. Wisconsin), as the UNDER is 5-1 in the Hokies’ last six non-conference outings and 9-1-1 in the Badgers’ last 11 neutral site games.


                10 SEEDS

                Oklahoma State Cowboys (20-12 SU, 16-10-1 ATS, 15-11-1 O/U): The Cowboys had the unfortunate pleasure of drawing white-hot Michigan in the opening round, which isn’t exactly a cause for celebration for a program that enters the NCAA tournament having lost three straight games. Additionally, note that Okie State is 0-4 ATS over its last four tourney games and 1-4-1 ATS over its last six showdowns with Big Ten opposition.

                Wichita State Shockers (30-4 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 17-14 O/U): Snubbed! How on Earth does a 30-win Wichita State team find itself as a No. 10 seed in this tournament? The Shockers enter March Madness on a 15-game winning streak in which the program has covered the number in seven of its last eight outings. No surprises here, however, as 10-seed Wichita State opens as a 6.5-point favorite over 7-seed Dayton.

                Marquette Golden Eagles (19-12 SU, 16-15 ATS, 16-15 O/U): The Golden Eagles have covered the number just once over their last five NCAA tournament outings, but have seen the OVER cash in seven of the program’s last eight neutral site games.

                VCU Rams (26-8 SU, 12-17-1 ATS, 17-13 O/U): VCU enters the tourney having covered the number just twice over its last seven outings, but take note, Rams fans, that this squad is a ridiculous 13-2 ATS over its last 15 NCAA tournament games when listed as an underdog. On Sunday evening VCU opened as a 4.5-point underdog vs. Saint Mary’s.


                11 SEEDS

                Xavier Musketeers (21-13 SU, 15-18 ATS, 15-18 O/U): From February 8 until March 1, Xavier found a way to go 0-7 against the spread. But since that 11-point loss vs. Marquette at the beginning of the month, the Musketeers have covered the number in four straight outings with the UNDER cashing every time as well. Take note that Xavier is 13-3 ATS over its last 16 outings against Big Ten opposition.

                Rhode Island Rams (24-9 SU, 18-14 ATS, 16-16 O/U): The Rams enter the tournament on a white-hot tear having won eight straight matchups while covering the spread in six of their last seven outings. However, be advised that Rhode Island is just 4-17-2 ATS over its last 23 games as an underdog. The upside here is that the Rams’ first-round opponent, Creighton, has covered the spread in just one of its last ten NCAA tournament outings.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                Providence Friars (20-12 SU, 20-12 ATS, 14-16-2 O/U): Concluded the regular season having covered the spread in 11 of their final 13 matchups, but quickly bowed-out of the Big East tournament with a 70-58 loss to Creighton as a 2-point underdog. Take note that the Friars are 13-3 ATS as an underdog over their last 16 neutral site matchups.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                USC Trojans (24-9 SU, 16-16 ATS, 15-16-1 O/U): The UNDER has cashed in four straight USC games, but be advised that the Trojans are an alarming 2-9 ATS over their last 11 showdowns against teams that feature a winning percentage of .600 or higher.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                Kansas State Wildcats (20-13 SU, 15-12-2 ATS, 13-16 O/U): The Wildcats have covered the number in four straight outings and have seen the UNDER go 46-22-1 over the program’s last 69 non-conference games. However, be advised that Kansas State has covered the spread just once over its last five NCAA tournament matchups.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-13 SU, 16-14 ATS, 21-8-1 O/U): The OVER has cashed in 15 of the Demon Deacons’ last 17 matchups. Additionally, Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS over its last five games against Big 12 opposition.


                12 SEEDS

                Nevada Wolf Pack (28-6 SU, 23-10-1 ATS, 18-14-2 O/U): A big round of applause for head coach Eric Musselman, who transformed Nevada from a 9-22 doormat in 2014-2015 to a 24-win club in his first year on the job to tournament-bound for the first time since 2007 thanks to a 28-6 mark during the 2016-2017 campaign. Not only that, but the Wolf Pack enter the Dance absolutely on fire thanks to nine straight wins and covers that featured six OVERS in the team’s last seven outings.

                Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (30-4 SU, 23-10 ATS, 13-20 O/U): Do not, REPEAT, do not overlook these guys. Despite earning a 12-seed with an opening-round date against 5-seed Minnesota, the early money came gushing on the Blue Raiders, with the line moving from Golden Gophers -1.5 all the way to Middle Tennessee -1 in just a matter of hours. And for good reason, too, as the Blue Raiders enter the tournament having won 20 of their last 21 outings with eight ATS covers over the program’s last ten contests.

                UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (29-5 SU, 14-15-1 ATS, 16-14 O/U): The Seahawks went from 2006-2015 without earning a berth in the NCAA tournament, but broke through last season and earned a hard-fought, first-round cover against Duke (+10) in the form of a 93-85 defeat. Be advised that the OVER is a perfect 10-0 over UNCW’s last ten games played in the month of March.

                Princeton Tigers (23-6 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 9-13-1 O/U): The Tigers roll into the Dance riding a 19-game winning streak that dates back to December 22 and at one point featured a stretch of 11 UNDERS in 12 games. That’s important to note as Princeton loves to slow the pace and rarely turns the ball over. There’s a reason a smidgeon of early money has come in backing the Tigers over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This program has the discipline and the goods from deep to engineer a first-round shocker.


                13 SEEDS

                Bucknell Bison (26-8 SU, 7-1 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U): Winners of six straight contests entering March Madness, the Bison return to the Dance for the first time since a one-and-done effort vs. Butler back in March of 2013. And while there is certainly upset potential with a team that shot an astounding 54.6% from two-point range this season, be advised that first-round opponent West Virginia is an impressive 19-7 ATS over its last 26 tournament matchups.

                East Tennessee State Buccaneers (27-7 SU, 17-13-1 ATS, 15-15-1 O/U): Combine a highly aggressive and opportunistic defense (think blocks, steals) with an overall squad that has won nine of its last 10 games and you get an East Tennessee program that is 5-1 ATS over its last six neutral site matchups. Additionally, note that the Buccaneers are an impressive 28-12 ATS over their last 40 contests played in the month of March.

                Vermont Catamounts (29-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U): They’re riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 straight victories, which dates back to a December 21 loss at Butler. Take note that the UNDER is a perfect 6-0 in Vermont’s last six NCAA tournament outings.

                Winthrop Eagles (26-6 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 6-2 O/U): The Eagles held the opposition to under 47% effective shooting this past season and has seen the UNDER cash 26 times in the school’s last 32 games played on a neutral court.


                14 SEEDS

                New Mexico State Aggies (28-5 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U): The good news here is that the Aggies have found their way into the Dance for the seventh time since the 2006-2007 campaign. The bad news is that New Mexico State is 0-6 straight-up and 2-4 ATS in those six matchups. The interesting news, however, is that the UNDER is a highly profitable 5-1 in those aforementioned six showdowns.

                Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (26-7 SU, 4-0 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Dunk City is back! The team that captivated a nation in March of 2013 is dancing once again, which is good news for backers, as Florida Gulf Coast is 5-0 ATS over its last five tournament outings, with the OVER cashing in four of those contests.

                Kent State Golden Flashes (22-13 SU, 16-13-2 ATS, 14-17 O/U): There are two streaks you need to pay attention to when it comes to Kent State: First, the Golden Flashes have covered the number in four straight outings as well as eight of their last nine games overall. Second, the UNDER has cashed in eight of Kent State’s last nine matchups.

                Iona Gaels (22-12 SU, 14-16-2 ATS, 19-13 O/U): The OVER has hit in nine of Iona’s last 12 games thanks to a combination of up-tempo offense and defensive indifference. Be advised that Iona has hung 70 or more points on the scoreboard in 11 straight outings.


                15 SEEDS

                Northern Kentucky Norse (24-10 SU, 20-9-1 ATS, 13-17 O/U): They’re 10-5 ATS over their last 15 games against teams with a winning record, but in all likelihood it’s a one-and-done for the first team set to face the Kentucky Wildcats. However, take note that the OVER has cashed in six of Northern Kentucky’s last seven matchups.

                Troy Trojans (22-14 SU, 20-12 ATS, 19-13 O/U): The Trojans have covered the number in four straight outings while watching the UNDER cash in seven of the program’s last nine games. In addition, motivation will be at an all-time high considering this is the school’s first tourney appearance this millennium. Also worth noting is the fact that Troy’s first-round opponent, Duke, is just 1-4 ATS over the last five years in the first round of March Madness.

                Jacksonville State Gamecocks (20-14 SU, 17-12 ATS, 9-20 O/U): The UNDER has cashed in 16 of Jacksonville State’s last 18 games.

                North Dakota Fighting Hawks (22-9 SU, 17-9-2 ATS, 15-12-1 O/U): The Fighting Hawks are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games when listed as an underdog. Additionally, North Dakota’s first-round opponent, Arizona, is 0-3 ATS over the last three years during the first round of March Madness.


                16 SEEDS

                Texas Southern Tigers (23-11 SU, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 O/U): This is Texas Southern’s third trip to the Dance since 2014, but be advised that the Tigers went 0-3 ATS during Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament play prior to landing a 16-seed. In addition, take note that the Tigers are 4-12 ATS over the program’s last 16 games when coming off a win over a conference rival.

                South Dakota State Jackrabbits (18-16 SU, 14-16-1 ATS, 19-12 O/U): South Dakota State heads to the Dance having covered the number in six of its last seven outings. However, pay particular attention to the total in this game, as the OVER is 22-8 in the Jackrabbits’ last 30 games when listed as an underdog and 18-7 in South Dakota State’s last 25 non-conference matchups.


                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                UC Davis Aggies (22-12 SU, 17-12-1 ATS, 12-17-1 O/U): UC Davis is in the tournament for the first time in school history, so emotions should be running high for this one, even if it is a play-in game. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS over their last nine games played on a Wednesday, while the UNDER is 6-1 in UC Davis’ last seven Wednesday outings.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                North Carolina Central Eagles (25-8 SU, 6-0 ATS, 1-5 O/U): The Eagles are 8-2 ATS over their last ten non-conference matchups while the UNDER is 8-1 in NC Central’s last nine contests played on a neutral court.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                New Orleans Privateers (20-11 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-1-1 O/U): The Privateers are 29-13 ATS over their last 42 games played on a neutral court, while the OVER is 12-3 in the school’s last 15 outings played in the month of March.

                [PLAY-IN TEAM]
                Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (19-15 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Opened the season 1-11, closed the season 17-4. That’s nonconference life as a low-major program. Be advised that the UNDER is 5-1 in the Mountaineers’ last six games when listed as an underdog and 11-2 in the school’s last 13 outings when lined between 130 and 139.5.
                Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 01:57 PM.

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                • #9
                  NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book I - Momentum, Skeds, and Travel

                  Filling out a bracket or making some bets during the NCAA tournament? Make sure you know how close to home teams are playing in their opening games.

                  March Madness is spreading like a damn zombie apocalypse and seems to infect more and more people every year.

                  The NCAA tournament is one of three rare (and hypocritical) times of the year when the mainstream media embraces sports betting and all its sexy angles - with the others being Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby. That means tens of millions of people who never filled out a bracket (yes, that’s a form of gambling) or placed a wager on a game before will be breaking the betting seal this March.

                  Whether you’re one of those new faces on the sports betting scene (in that case, welcome. Nice to see you) or you’re a veteran of many a Madness, our NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible will come in handy over the next three weeks.

                  BOOK I: Momentum, Skeds, and Travel

                  Momentum

                  If you’re filling out your office pool bracket or capping the Round of 64 matchups, the first thing you need to consider before looking at anything is current form. Ask any oddsmaker and they’ll tell you that how a team is playing right now makes up the majority of a spread.

                  Teams that finished the season strong could have finally figured out their rotation or fixed issues that plagued their games all year. And some coaches, like North Carolina’s Roy Williams or Kansas’ Bill Self, are all about getting his team to peak at the right time – just before the postseason – so any losses taken earlier in the year should be weighed a little lighter.

                  Conference tournaments also offer bettors a chance to cash in on red-hot runs. A perfect example was the 2011 UConn Huskies program that played its way into the NCAA tournament with an improbable run to the Big East title, building steam for a Cinderella run to the Final Four and national title. Sometimes the light switch just gets clicked at the right time.

                  On the other hand, teams that stumbled into the postseason – be it the conference tournament or into the NCAA after taking a bad loss in the league postseason – should be viewed with caution. Bettors need to dissect those defeats and see what was behind those losses.

                  Often times, an off-night for a superstar or key injury could have played into those games, putting the team in a spot it’s not normally in. Or maybe those losses came by close margins on the road in tough venues.

                  Sometimes, however, a team simply runs out of gas at the end of a long schedule and doesn’t have enough in the tank to push through the postseason. Looking into things like shooting percentage and turnovers per game in those home stretches can be telltale signs of a tired team.


                  Non-conference schedule/Weak conference

                  One of the favorite measuring sticks for the NCAA selection committee is strength of schedule.

                  For mid-major programs serious about making the tournament cut, who won’t get much attention once league play starts, lining up a solid tune-up slate is key. Finding out which teams have that giant killer potential is a great way to avoid being burned by a Cinderella run and finding hidden value in the tournament spreads.

                  In the 2014 NCAA tournament, No. 12 North Dakota State out of the Summit League stunned No. 5 Oklahoma in the Round of 64. That would seem like a sizable upset, except for the fact NDSU was just a 3.5-point underdog because bookmakers knew the Bison’s wouldn’t back down from OU. North Dakota State boasted the 15th toughest non-conference schedule in the country, taking on teams like St. Mary’s, Notre Dame and Ohio State before the New Year.

                  But battling a slew of challenges to start the season isn’t reserved to teams from small leagues. Major conference programs trying to separate from the pack have been going through a gauntlet of tough non-conference foes in order to prepare for the rigors of league play.

                  It’s no surprise to see elite programs like Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and Gonzaga take on all challengers early in the calendar. And especially in major conferences suffering through down years, like the Big Ten, getting a read on how a team performs against programs outside of its usual schedule is key for capping later round matchups.

                  In that same vein, bettors and bracketeers should know which conferences were the most competitive and which ones lacked true depth. This can go for mid-majors and the big boy leagues as well. A one-loss conference record for a team from a shallow talent pool may not hold up against a team that went 10-6 in league action but played tough opponents night in and night out.

                  Heading into this year’s tournament, basketball fans have to question top-heavy leagues like the SEC while conferences such as the ACC provided more consistent competition for its elite teams.


                  Travel

                  Depending on where they seed in the NCAA pecking order, and the selection committee’s dedication to competitive balance among their bracket principles, teams can either find itself just miles from campus or on the other side of the country for the first two games of the tournament.

                  Factoring in any home-court edge is a great way to milk the most out of pointspreads and can be a solid decider if you’re on the fence about who to advance in your bracket pool.

                  Last year, teams like Providence (played in Philadelphia) and Butler (played in Chicago) enjoyed short trips and friendly crowds in their opening games while schools like VCU (played in California) and Southern Cal (played in Philadelphia) were forced to hop long plane rides on short notice to play in a faraway venues – both failing to make it out of the weekend.

                  Getting a grip on which teams can play on the road is also an important task when making your next move. Some programs thrive on a serious home-court edge but flounder away from home. The Florida State Seminoles were a tough team to beat at home but look like a different team when they hit the highway.

                  Going over home/away splits, accounting for wins/losses, ATS road records, shooting percentage and points allowed should give you an idea of which teams are road tested and which ones will be home sick during the NCAA tournament.
                  Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 01:58 PM.

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                  • #10
                    NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book II - Droughts, Experience, and Coaching

                    Capping college basketball coaches is just as important as knowing the starting five when the NCAA tournament rolls around.

                    BOOK II: Droughts, Experience, and Coaching

                    Tournament droughts/Bubble teams


                    For most programs, making the NCAA field of 68 is a big deal, especially when you find smaller programs who have never been to the Big Dance before or major conference members snapping an extended tournament drought. These team offer letdown value in their opening game of the NCAA.

                    For mid-major teams, that perhaps stunned their conference favorite in their respective league tournament, a trip to the NCAA wasn’t in the cards until that conference championship upset. And many times, these mid-major Cinderellas fall flat in their first game with a sense of accomplishment for just making to the Final 68.

                    The same fate can easily be in store for major conference programs who have to blow the dust of their dancing shoes following a long hiatus from NCAA play. Despite being a recognizable name, the players can sometimes get caught up in “just being there” and lay an egg when it comes time to perform, not realizing the level of intensity needed to advance in the tournament.

                    Another group to watch out for are those teams usually shown on CBS Selection Sunday, gathered in the locker room or athletics center to see if they made the NCAA cut or not. Bubble teams that squeaked into the national tournament, either by a late-season run or a few impressive wins in the conference tourney, can also get caught in a letdown after escaping the ax.


                    Experience vs. Talent

                    This is one the biggest debates basketball fans – bettors or not – can get into during tournament time. What is worth more: experience or talent? Factor in their worth to the spread and you can quickly get sucked down this worm hole, created by the NBA’s draft rules.

                    Since players can’t jump to the pros straight from high school any more – needing to be 19 years old and out of high school for a year before declaring for the draft – the freshman class is often the most talented class in college. First-year players good enough for the pros leave school for the NBA – the “one and done” crew – with the leftover, less-talented group forming the sophomore class.

                    And if those second-year student athletes aren’t good enough to get drafted or play pro ball overseas or in the NBADL, they stick around the college ranks joining a watered-down junior and senior group of players.

                    Heavyweight programs like Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas get the most exposure, which is an easy sell to a high school kid looking to juice his draft stock in one year of NCAA ball. That’s why you usually see the five-star studs keep landing in the same spots. These are hands down the most talented teams.

                    Kentucky proved that talent can trump experience with their dominant run to the national title in 2012, fueled by a stellar crop of freshman, headlined by Anthony Davis. But, on the flip side of that argument, the Butler Bulldogs – out of the Horizon League - made runs to the national title game in 2010 and 2011 with a roster loaded with experience (three seniors, five juniors/five seniors, three juniors).

                    Perhaps the best way to gauge a freshman-heavy team is the supporting cast. If you have a starting lineup with three of four freshman, find out who is the upperclassmen rounding out the lineup or who is the sixth man off the bench? Does this player bring enough experience to steady the young kids and step up when needed?

                    This year's Kentucky team is among the youngest in the country – with eight freshmen and an average age of 19.7 years - but those talented youngsters are surrounded by four sophomores and three seniors, most of which come off the bench in a supporting role that gives UK stability when the “diaper dandies” need a break.

                    And for a program with a surplus of seniors and juniors, bettors and bracketologist should check into just how weathered those players really are. A group that has lost steadily for two or three years, only to finally make the NCAA, may not know what it takes to get the job done and have only experience losing – not winning.

                    North Carolina is one of the more experienced teams in the country with five seniors and four juniors on the roster, with those players having gone all the way to the national title game last season and the Sweet 16 the year before. Roy Williams is hoping that postseason experience intersects with his team’s surplus of top talent this March, avenging a crushing last-second loss in last year’s championship.

                    Some may think that an experienced team is used to the long and trying college basketball season, where a younger side may see its players hit the feared “freshman wall”. While this theory used to hold water, the key role of AAU competition (Amateur Athletic Union) in helping high school players get noticed by NCAA scouts has made high-level basketball a year-round season for college-bound players.

                    So, not only are the top freshmen in the country breaking through the “wall” with ease but at this point in the schedule – if they’re lucky enough to be among the field of 68 – they really can’t be considered wet behind the ears.


                    Coaching

                    College sports are often more dictated by who’s on the sidelines than the players on the floor or field. Unlike in the pros, college head coaches have full control over which players they bring in and design a program around the system they want to run. Handicapping a coach is just as important as breaking down a team’s starting five at this point in the season.

                    Banking on a veteran coach, with plenty of NCAA games under their belts, is a smart move later in the tournament, when the pressure is higher and adjustments are premium with the quick turnaround between games. A first-time tournament coach may not know how to react to the intensity of an opening round game or be clear-minded enough to make key calls need to win.

                    There’s a reason teams like Villanova with Jay Wright, Arizona with Sean Miller, Kansas with Bill Self and Duke with Mike Krzyzewski always seem to be among the names escaping the first weekend of the tournament each March.

                    For those capping some lesser-known NCAA contenders, take a look at the head coach’s resume and examine their coaching tree. While they may not have taken this current school to the Big Dance they could have been an assistant with a big-name program, getting on-the-job training when it comes to sealing the deal come tournament time.
                    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 02:02 PM.

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                    • #11
                      NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book III - Telltale signs of a Cinderella

                      Cinderella NCAA tournament teams all have their tells, from strong non-conference skeds, to little-known supertars, to unique playbooks.

                      Everyone loves fairy tales, which is why more and more people love March Madness. The promise of the Cinderella team has captured the nation’s hearts ever since Jimmy Valvano and the upstart North Carolina State Wolfpack shocked their way to the national championship in 1983.

                      For basketball bettors, whether you’re wagering on NCAA games or filling out a tournament bracket for your annual March Madness pool, spotting the Cinderella before the clock strikes midnight is the road to riches. While the majority of March Madness aficionados pick their jaws up off the ground, those skilled enough to spot the tournament sleeper are counting their cash and touting a bracket free of red ink.

                      In the first two books of Betting Bible, we explored some overall handicapping tools that will help you get through the tournament. Now, in Book III, we look at key attributes bettors and bracketeers should look for when searching for Cinderella this March.


                      BOOK III: TELLTALE SIGNS OF A CINDERELLA

                      Non-conference schedule


                      Most tournament stunners hinted at their upset potential early into the college hoops season. The only problem is 99.9 percent of March Madness bettors don’t pay attention to the NCAA ranks until Selection Sunday. From the early tipoff tournaments to the conference championships, it’s a wiseguys’ game.

                      Before automatically penciling a recognizable program past a lower-seeded mid-major you should take a trip back in time, before the New Year, and see just who these small schools sharpened their teeth against this season, and even the year before.

                      Looking at previous Cinderella teams like Davidson in 2008 or Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, you’ll find a bevy of big-name programs on their non-conference schedules. The Wildcats, led by Stephen Curry, clashed with fellow Carolina rivals Duke and UNC on the regular and also took on UCLA and North Carolina that season. And the Eagles’ 2012-13 calendar was packed with notable names like Duke, St. John’s, Iowa State, and VCU.

                      Potential Cinderellas don’t necessarily have to knock off those Goliaths during non-conference competition, with the experience of playing at that high level preparing them for tournament time. Mid-majors with plenty of major conference foes on the docket are less likely to be overwhelmed by their opponents in the opening rounds of March Madness.

                      How those underdogs did against the spread versus serious non-conference competition is also, at the very least, a solid indicator of a sleeper bet early in the tournament. That 2007-08 Davidson team was 0-4 SU versus UNC, Duke, UCLA and NC State but covered the spread in each of those non-conference games. The Wildcats would go on to run through Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin in the tournament before losing to eventual-champ Kansas by two points in the Elite Eight – going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance.


                      Playmakers/Game breakers

                      The top talents in the NCAA making the jump to the pros each year come from the same NBA-factory programs like Kentucky, Kansas and North Carolina. However, there are always one or two mid-major guys, playing under the radar all year, that sneak into the first round of the draft. And often times, an impressive display on the national stage is what got those players from smaller schools recognized.

                      There are a handful of current and former NBA players that sparked a Cinderella upset during their college days, like Curry at Davidson, Courtney Lee at Western Kentucky, Eric Maynor at VCU, Gordon Hayward at Butler, and Adam Morrison at Gonzaga. Having the best player on the floor can sometimes be enough. A go-to guy keeps opponents honest on defense and makes the big shot, which is key for Cinderellas.

                      It's the reason "Ali Farokhmanesh" is a household name among March Madness fans.


                      3-point shooting/rebounding/defense

                      When breaking down Cinderellas from a statistical approach, some of the more common numbers that pop up are terrific 3-point shooting, the ability to rebound and keep opponents off the boards, and a defense that can hold up against talent-stuffed favorites.

                      The ability to knock down the 3-ball is very important for underdog teams, allowing them to keep pace with a bigger stronger opponent who may be able to bully their way to the basket for easy looks. A perfect example is Northern Iowa’s upset over Kansas (hinted at above) in the second round of the 2010 NCAA tournament. The Panthers sunk nine 3-pointers in that game and left a towering KU frontcourt powerless.

                      In Norfolk State’s Round of 64 upset of Missouri in 2012 – a No. 15 over No. 2 seed – the Spartans dominated the glass, pulling down 35 boards with 14 on the offensive end (including a game-winning tip-in) while holding the Tigers to just 23 totals rebounds and only six offensive boards. Norfolk State scored 16 second-chance points on those offensive putbacks, and free points can turn any mid-major team into a potential giant killer - or at least a spread coverer.

                      On the defensive side of the ball, a mid-major program that prides itself on defense can often turn those stops and turnovers into easy buckets. George Mason nearly rode its hard-nosed defense all the way to the national title game in 2006. The Patriots, who ranked 21st in defense (60.1 points against per game), shut down super powers Michigan State, and North Carolina in the first two games of the tournament and held Wichita State to 55 points before winning an overtime shootout with UConn in the Elite Eight.


                      Different styles/matchups

                      Half of the success of Cinderella schools is that they found favorable matchups in their opening round opponents, going against teams that have never faced an offense or defense like that presented or get stuck in a bad mismatch of pace, which can shake a team out of its game plan. This goes back to Paul Westhead’s up-tempo offense with Loyola Marymount in the late 1980’s.

                      A perfect example of this are the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, who used a run-and-gun style of play against the Georgetown Hoyas’ methodical Princeton offense in the Round of 64 in the 2013 NCAA tournament. The Eagles put the Hoyas on their heels, forced them out of their tempo and capitalized on 14 turnovers with fastbreak finishes.

                      The VCU Rams burst on to the national scene with a run in the 2011 NCAA tournament, backed behind head coach Shaka Smart’s havoc defense. The Rams went with all-out 55, full-court pressure defense, making it tough for opponents to inbound the ball, advance over half, and get into an offensive set with enough time left on the shot clock to get the look they wanted. Virginia Commonwealth forced a total of 69 turnovers in its first five NCAA games (including the play-in) for an average of 13.8 takeaways before losing to Butler in the Final Four.

                      When trying Cinderella’s slipper on this year’s tiny dancers, get to know the team philosophy and what sets them apart from the pack. Then measure that approach – either on offense or defense – against what their opening-round matchup brings to the table and the types of playbooks and defensive schemes they’ve dealt with during conference play (Do they milk each possession? How have they gone against a lot of zone or pressure-heavy teams?).

                      Teams playing on Thursday and Friday don’t have a lot of time for film study between Selection Sunday and the opening tip, especially coordinating a small army of players, coaches, assistants and training staff to travel on short notice. Perhaps Cinderella's greatest weapon is the element of surprise.
                      Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 02:03 PM.

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                      • #12
                        NCAAB
                        Short Sheet

                        Tuesday, March 14


                        Mount St. Marys vs New Orleans, 6:40 PM ET
                        Mt St Marys: 12-3 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better
                        New Orleans: 12-28 ATS in all tournament games

                        Kansas State at Wake Forest, 9:10 PM ET
                        Kansas State: 18-7 OVER in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread
                        Wake Forest: 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite

                        UNC Greensboro at Syracuse, 7:00 PM ET
                        UNC Greensboro: 24-43 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4
                        Syracuse: 8-1 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

                        Indiana at Georgia Tech, 9:00 PM ET
                        Indiana: 3-11 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread
                        Georgia Tech: 8-1 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less

                        Valparaiso at Illinois, 7:15 PM ET
                        Valparaiso: 4-13 ATS in first round tournament games
                        Illinois: 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points

                        CS Bakersfield at California, 11:15 PM ET
                        CS Bakersfield: 8-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more point
                        California: 8-18 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games

                        Richmond at Alabama, 9:15 PM ET
                        Richmond: 7-0 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread
                        Alabama: 16-30 ATS after a game where they covered the spread
                        Last edited by StarDust Bum; 03-14-2017, 02:04 PM.

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