Announcement

**Udog** · 03-14-2017, 08:33 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

— Nick Foles signed a 2-year, $11M deal to go back to the Eagles as a backup QB.

— Since December 1st, Washington Wizards have the best record in the NBA.

— There were 15,307 pitching changes in 2,430 games in the major leagues LY. Reduce that number by two per game, and games would already be ten minutes shorter.

— Once again this year, I have to look up what channel TruTV is on my DirecTV; LOL Turns out it is channel 246 and as I type this, Impractical Jokers is on. I watch truTV four days a year.

— Reading articles about baseball metrics, the amount of data involved now is simply mind-numbing. I love numbers, but some of this stuff goes beyond numbers.

— World Baseball tournament had sone chaos late Sunday night; the tie-breaker rules were not clearly stated and things got confused- Venezuela advanced instead of Mexico. Not everyone was happy about this.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NCAA tournament trends (mostly)…….

13) Call me an old guy yelling at kids to get off his lawn, but NBA players making 8-figure salaries taking nights off to “rest” is complete BS. They fly around on private jets, never, ever carry their own luggage, but can’t play on consecutive nights? They’re soft.

Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t missed a game in his two years in the NBA; nothing soft about him, but he is becoming the exception instead of the rule. Karl Malone played in 80+ games in 17 consecutive non-strike seasons— you don’t think he ever got tired?!?!?!

12) When Tampa Bay Bucs’ WR Mike Evans was playing at Galveston Ball HS in Texas, the WR on the other side of the field was Phillies OF prospect Nick Williams, who is in AAA with the Phils now, and is their #4 overall prospect, according to Baseball America.

Now, on to some NCAA tournament trends……..

11) Over last four years, 16-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in first round games; over last 24 years, the #1 seed in East Region is just 7-16-1 vs spread in the first round.

10) As I type this, Rhode Island (97%), St Mary’s (96%), UCLA (94%) are getting highest percentage of money wagered on them in their first round games. Most evenly divided action is Princeton (52%)-Notre Dame game. These numbers are at William Hill sports books in Nevada.

9) Last three years, 14-seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round, with four SU upsets. All four 3-seeds are favored by 12+ points this week, first time since 2009 that all four 3-seeds were a double digit favorite in the first round.

8) Over last five years, Atlantic 14 teams are 13-8 vs spread in first round games.

7) This is mostly random but still interesting; you look at 4-13 first round games- the favorite is 16-7 vs spread in the East region, 9-2 in Southeast, 3-6 in Midwest and 3-14 in the West.

6) Last two years, Big X teams are 3-11 against the spread in the first round;

5) Last 23 years, the 12-seed in the Midwest is 18-5 vs spread in first round, 15-8 SU; last 10 years, the 12-seed in the West is 8-2 vs spread, winning three of last four SU. Favorites are 10-5 vs spread in 5-12 games in Southeast, 8-4 in East the last 12 years.

4) Since 2008, Mountain West teams other than San Diego State are 5-22 vs spread in the NCAA tournament, 4-16 in the first round.

3) 10-seed Wichita State is favored by 6 points over 10-seed Dayton; since 1987, 10-seeds that are favored over a 7-seed are 10-16-1 vs spread. In the last 30 years, this is the most points a 10-seed has been favored by in the first round.

2) If you look at the eventual national champ the last 11 years, they went 10-1 vs spread in their first round game, exception being Kentucky in 2012, which beat Western Kentucky by 15 in first round, laying 26.5. WKU’s coach then was Ray Harper, who now has Jacksonville State of OVC in the tournament, this year against Louisville in first round.

OVC teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in first round the last eight years.

1— Illinois State coach Dan Muller put out a message on Twitter Monday, asking any “Big 5” conference coach to play a home/home series with the Redbirds next season. Muller won’t get any calls, since the Big 5 conference teams don’t have the onions to play true road games. You think Jim Boeheim is getting on a plane and flying to Normal, IL for a game in December?

**Udog** · 03-14-2017, 08:55 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 14

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DETROIT (33 - 33) at CLEVELAND (43 - 22) - 3/14/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-44 ATS (-17.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 9-6 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 9-6 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (34 - 32) at NEW YORK (26 - 41) - 3/14/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 8-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (37 - 29) at BROOKLYN (12 - 53) - 3/14/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-47 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
BROOKLYN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 4-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 3-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (29 - 36) at NEW ORLEANS (26 - 40) - 3/14/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 27-38 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (24 - 42) at GOLDEN STATE (52 - 14) - 3/14/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 77-56 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 14

Detroit won four of last five games overall; they’ve lost nine of last 11 road games (3-8 against spread). Three of their last four road games stayed under. Cavaliers lost four of last five games; they’re 0-3 vs spread in last three home games. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Pistons won last two games with Cleveland, after losing previous five; Detroit lost last three games in Ohio, by 5-17-23 points. Five of last six series games stayed under.

Indiana is 5-4 since All-Star break; they’re 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 road games. Under is 10-1 in their last 11 games. New York lost four of last five games; they’re 4-7 vs spread in last eleven home games. Six of their last seven games stayed under total. Knicks lost eight of last ten games with Indiana; Pacers won three of last four visits to Madison Square Garden. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Oklahoma City lost its last seven road games (1-6 vs spread); they just beat Spurs/Jazz at home. Six of their last eight games went over total. Brooklyn lost 21 of last 24 games but covered six of last eight; they covered four of last five home games. Five of their last six games went over. Home side won four of last five Thunder-Net games; OKC lost its last two visits to Brooklyn, by 31-12 points. Six of last nine series games went over total.

Portland won five of last six games; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 road games. Seven of their last eight games went over. Pelicans split their last six games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Five of their last six games stayed under total. Trailblazers won eight of last ten games with New Orleans; teams split last four series games on Bourbon Street. Three of last four series games went over.

Philly lost seven of last nine games, but they covered seven of last eight road tilts. Over is 10-5 in their last 15 games overall. Warriors lost last three games, are 2-5 since Durant got hurt; they are 0-3 vs spread in last three home games. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Golden State won its last seven games with Philly but Sixers covered last four; 76ers lost last four visits to Oakland (1-3 vs spread). under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

NBA

Tuesday, March 14

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Detroit
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
INDIANA vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 9 games

7:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Brooklyn is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games at home

8:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Portland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Portland

10:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. GOLDEN STATE
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games on the road
Golden State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

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**Udog** · 03-14-2017, 09:38 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 14

Philadelphia @ Golden State

Game 539-540
March 14, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
109.740
Golden State
123.163
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 13 1/2
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 17
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+17); Under

Portland @ New Orleans

Game 537-538
March 14, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
119.830
New Orleans
124.385
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Over

Oklahoma City @ Brooklyn

Game 535-536
March 14, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
124.447
Brooklyn
113.311
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 11
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 6
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-6); Over

Indiana @ New York

Game 533-534
March 14, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
126.323
New York
120.405
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 6
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 3
211
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-3); Under

Detroit @ Cleveland

Game 531-532
March 14, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
115.119
Cleveland
125.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 10 1/2
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 8
215
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-8); Under

**Udog** · 03-14-2017, 11:51 AM

NBA betting road map: Big rebound week for the Warriors?

Saturday's blowout loss at San Antonio was the culmination of a stretch of basketball which saw the Warriors lose five of seven outright.

There's now a virtual tie atop the NBA standings, as the Golden State Warriors (52-14) punted their game last week at San Antonio (51-14). That race will likely go down to the season's last week, as will the battles in each conference for the final playoff seeds.

Al McMordie takes a look at the upcoming week in the NBA:

Spread Watch

The Golden State Warriors are officially in a tailspin. It's true that they gave away their last game before it even started when coach Steve Kerr chose to rest his four best healthy players (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala). But Saturday's blowout loss at San Antonio was the culmination of a stretch of basketball which saw the Warriors lose five of seven outright. Even worse, the Warriors are 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games.

There's no doubt that the injury to leading scorer Kevin Durant has played a large role. The Warriors have scored less than 90 points in three of their last six games (after doing that in just seven of their previous 285 games). But it's not just Durant's offense which is sorely missed - his length and versatility on defense are key to Golden State's switching schemes. Without Durant on the court Golden State is really small, and teams can now more easily drive to the hoop and punish the Warriors on the interior.

The good news for the Dubs is that this week's schedule has them back at home against three teams with losing records (Philadelphia, Orlando, Milwaukee). The Warriors have won seven in a row versus both the Sixers and Magic and six of seven versus the Bucks, so they should definitely win each game straight-up. But with respect to the pointspread, the game on Tuesday vs. Philly is the one to circle for Golden State. Since March 23, 2013, the Warriors have gone 36-18 ATS at home when playing with at least 2 days of rest. Also, they're an eye-popping 70-30-1 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a win. With Philly coming into Oakland off a win on Sunday vs. the Lakers, look for Golden State to blow out Brett Brown's crew on Tuesday.

Totals Watch

The Chicago Bulls are a mess right now. They've lost their last five game, both SU and ATS and the primary reason for their woes is their sputtering offense. Chicago has now scored 95 or less points in six straight games, and all six have gone Under the total. Sunday's game at Boston was the Bulls' worst offensive outing in their last 40 games as they converted just 33 of 87 shots (37 percent) and scored a mere 80 points.

This week, the Bulls will face the Hornets, Grizzlies, Wizards and Jazz. Of the four, Saturday's game versus Utah has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Utah's defense gives up the least amount of points in the league (96.4), and 14 of the last 19 meetings between the two clubs have gone Under the total. Take the Bulls and Jazz to go Under.

Injury Watch

The San Antonio Spurs had three starters on the shelf Saturday versus Golden State as Kawhi Leonard (concussion), Tony Parker (back) and LaMarcus Aldridge (heart) missed the game. Of course it mattered very little, as Golden State played without its four best players, so the Spurs romped. It's possible that Leonard will be back on the court Monday versus Atlanta, but Parker and Aldridge will not. Aldridge's condition - a heart arrhythmia caused by Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome - has the potential to be long-lasting, so that's the one which is causing anxiety among Spurs fans.

If there is a silver lining for San Antonio, it's that GM R.C. Buford has constructed a deep and talented roster. David Lee can step in and start for Aldridge while Patty Mills will man the point while Parker heals. However, if Aldridge is forced to miss a significant amount of time then the Spurs will likely not catch the Warriors for the top seed as Golden State has an easier schedule from here on out.

This week, the Spurs will forge on and play games against Atlanta, Portland, Memphis and Sacramento. The game versus Atlanta is a revenge match for San Antonio, as the Hawks won in overtime earlier this season. That doesn't bode well for the Hawks, as they're a poor 72-107 ATS in the regular season as road underdogs vs. revenge-minded foes, including 19-40 ATS if they're playing their third game in four days.

Schedule Watch

The World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers have been world-class chumps this season when playing on the road without rest. After dropping Sunday's game at Houston, the Cavs fell to 0-9 straight-up and 1-8 ATS on the road following a game the day before. They're also 6-20 SU and 6-19-1 ATS in this role since February 6, 2015.

This week, the Cavaliers will play back-to-back road games in Los Angeles against the Clippers and Lakers on Saturday and Sunday, so they'll once again have an opportunity to get a road win in the second of back-to-back games.

Of course, this situation Sunday seems as if it's the perfect time for the Cavs to snap their losing streak. First, they won't have to travel as both games this weekend are at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Second, the Lakers are the worst team in basketball other than Brooklyn. Notwithstanding their woes, the Cavaliers should get the cash Sunday.

**Udog** · 03-14-2017, 02:22 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 14

Detroit at Cleveland, 7:05 PM ET
Detroit: 7-16 ATS as a road underdog
Cleveland: 22-9 ATS in home games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better

Indiana at New York, 7:35 PM ET
Indiana: 5-14 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins
New York: 13-2 ATS in home games after a division game

Oklahoma City at Brooklyn, 7:35 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 25-14 ATS as a favorite
Brooklyn: 29-42 ATS after playing a home game

Portland at New Orleans, 8:05 PM ET
Portland: 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
New Orleans: 17-4 OVER in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread

Philadelphia at Golden State, 10:35 PM ET
Philadelphia: 19-6 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent
Golden State: 12-2 UNDER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/14

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 3/14

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