Announcement

**Udog** · 02-27-2017, 09:52 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

— Spurs 119, Lakers 98— San Antonio is a very quiet 45-13.

— Clippers 124, Hornets 121 OT— Blake Griffin had 43 for the Clippers.

— Thunder 118, Pelicans 110— DeMarcus Cousins got his 18th technical, has to sit out the next game.

— Northern Kentucky 82, Valparaiso 78— Valpo’s best player is on crutches.

— Monmouth 79, Iona 73- Hawks’ last loss was January 2 to St Peter’s.

— Washington State 79, Washington 71— Markelle Fultz missed his third game with a bad knee.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

13) Pretty soon the college basketball coaching carousel will start spinning, which begs the question: is it better to be a big fish in a small pond, or a smaller fish in a big pond?

Shaka Smart bolted VCU for Texas and more $$$, but now he is 30-32 in two years, 15-19 in conference games and Longhorn fans are wondering why Rick Barnes got fired.

Guys like Gregg Marshall (Wichita St), Eric Musselman (Nevada) and Archie Miller (Dayton) are winning big in smaller leagues and will surely get offers from schools like NC State, Missouri, Illinois or whatever other jobs open up, but they all make a lot of money now.

Is it worth it to coach in deeper waters for more money, when it is harder to win there?

12) Watching Gonzaga lose at home to BYU late Saturday night, it occurs to you that they haven’t been tested enough by the lame WCC, which was way down this year, other than St Mary’s—even BYU is very young and isn’t as good as usual.

Gonzaga’s guards looked lost in the last few minutes, when the game was tight and a loss seemed possible. Zags hadn’t played a single-digit game since Dec 3, when they won by 7 over Arizona in Los Angeles. 84 days between close games isn’t that healthy for a team.

11) San Antonio Spurs have had 20 consecutive seasons with a winning road record; that is really a great accomplishment.

10) Arizona State 83, USC 82— ASU played starters 199 out of 200 minutes in their loss to UCLA Thursday; I’ve never seen that before. In this game, they played two subs, one 11:00, another 12:00, but they pulled out a win and improved to 7-10 in the Pac-12.

9) Big West Conference is way down this year, but three of their four games Saturday went to overtime, and the fourth game ended 83-80, so solid night of entertainment in that league.

8) Champ Week starts tonight, with four first-round games in the Atlantic Sun tourney at campus sites. Florida Gulf Coast is the #1 seed, Lipscomb the #2 seed.

Ohio Valley tournament will be next, starting on Wednesday.

7) A U of Louisville sophomore thought he won $38,000 at a women’s basketball game Thursday by hitting a layup, foul shot, 3-pointer and half-court shot during a time-out, but he has been told he is ineligible to receive the prize because he played high school ball and the fine print of the contest says no one can collect if they played organized basketball within the last six years. Too bad- the sponsor would win back the $38K in goodwill if they gave the kid the $$$.

6) San Diego State had a great running back this season, Donnel Pumphrey; the school honored the young man during a timeout in the Aztecs’ basketball game Wednesday, but there was one small problem.

Mr Pumphrey showed up wearing a Dodgers’ hat.

People in San Diego don’t like Los Angeles, and since the Chargers just bolted to LA, that feeling has ramped up a little bit, so Mr Pumphrey took some grief on social media for the hat. Took until the second half for someone at the arena to get him a red Aztecs’ cap.

5) I’m a big fan of college basketball adopting the 8-second half-court rule; would encourage teams to press more and also to run the ball up the floor, instead of walking it up.

4) Do you think Jack Nicklaus sits at home and quietly celebrates because Eldrick Woods’ career is in the dumper, which preserves Nicklaus’ record for most majors won?

3) Toughing moment at Michigan State Sunday; senior Eron Harris blew his knee out earlier this year- his career is over, but he suited up for his last home game Sunday and with 0:11 left and the Spartans safely ahead, Harris checked into the game to get one last ovation.

He knelt down, which wasn’t easy with the big knee brace he had on, and kissed the Spartan logo at midcourt. I’m not sure the average fan realizes how much effort these kids put into their playing careers and how much it means to them. It was a pretty cool moment.

2) I was trying to explain to a young person the other day what basketball was like before the shot clock; in short, it wasn’t as fun. Coaches could dominate the game; the game could have almost no flow at all. The shot clock and 3-point shot have made basketball a way better game.

Example: February 22, 1980— While the US Olympic hockey team was beating the Russians in the Miracle on Ice in Lake Placid, my college team was playing in the semifinals of their conference tournament, in Buffalo. People in the corner of the small gym were watching the hockey game on Canadian TV in the corner of the gym.

We lost the game that night in four overtimes; the team that won the tip of all four 5:00 OT’s held the ball for the last shot. I’m not kidding, it was that boring— tense is a better word.

In 1979, a North Carolina-Duke basketball game was 7-0 at halftime. Seriously.

1— Watching college hoop games this weekend, one thing is clear; people are tired. Season is a long one; players, coaches, and maybe most of all the officials are tired. Getting to Champ Week gives everyone a little jolt of energy.

**Udog** · 02-27-2017, 10:11 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, February 27

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TORONTO (35 - 24) at NEW YORK (24 - 35) - 2/27/2017, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (26 - 31) at CLEVELAND (40 - 17) - 2/27/2017, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 8-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (49 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (22 - 36) - 2/27/2017, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (32 - 26) at BOSTON (38 - 21) - 2/27/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 70-50 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-7 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 9-5 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (30 - 29) at HOUSTON (42 - 18) - 2/27/2017, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 315-259 ATS (+30.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (27 - 32) at DALLAS (23 - 35) - 2/27/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 371-306 ATS (+34.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 43-29 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 141-105 ATS (+25.5 Units) in February games since 1996.
MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MIAMI is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MIAMI is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (23 - 36) at SACRAMENTO (25 - 34) - 2/27/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 99-121 ATS (-34.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-69 ATS (-31.9 Units) after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 5-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 02-27-2017, 10:12 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, February 27

Toronto won its last three games, all at home; they’re 1-7 in last eight road games, 4-11 vs spread in last 15 road games. Four of their last five games stayed under. New York lost six of its last eight games; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine home games. Six of their last eight games went over. Knicks lost their last five games with Toronto; six of last nine series games went over the total. Raptors won last two visits to Manhattan by 27-4 points.

Bucks won four of last five games; they’re 2-8 vs spread in last ten road games. Six of their last nine games went over total. Cavaliers won eight of their last ten games; they’re 5-1 vs spread in last six home games. Last three Cavalier games stayed under. Cleveland won five of last six games with Milwaukee; eight of last nine series games went over the total. Bucks lost last three visits to Ohio, by 15-9-11 points.

Golden State won six of its last seven games, is 7-4 vs spread in its last 11 road games. Four of their last six games went over. Sixers covered their last seven games overall, their last 11 home games. Six of their last seven games went over total. Warriors won their last six games with Philly but 76ers covered last three; Golden State won its last three visits here, by 20-5-3 points. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Atlanta lost four of its last five games, is 3-6 vs spread in last nine road games. Hawks’ last four games stayed under the total. Celtics five of their last seven games, are 0-5 vs spread (5-0 SU) in last five home games. Last three Boston games stayed under the total. Hawks won seven of last ten games with Boston; teams split last four meetings played here. Six of last seven series games stayed under.

Pacers lost seven of their last eight games; they’re 0-2-1 vs spread in last three road games. Last four Indiana games stayed under the total. Rockets won six of their last seven games, are 3-1 vs spread in last four home games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Home side won six of last seven Indiana-Houston games; Pacers lost last three visits here, by 26-12-4 points. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Heat won three in row, 16 of its last 18 games; they’re 6-1 vs spread in last seven home games. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Mavericks lost three of last four games, are 8-2 vs spread in last ten home games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Miami won nine of its last ten games with Dallas; they won/covered last four games in this gym. Last five series games stayed under.

Timberwolves are 4-3 in their last seven games, but 1-3 vs spread in last four on road. Three of their last four games stayed under. Sacramento won five of last seven games; they covered four of last five home games. Last five Kings games stayed under the total. Kings won their last two games with Minnesota, by 3-4 points; teams split last four series games played here. Four of last six series games stayed under.

**Udog** · 02-27-2017, 10:15 AM

NBA

Monday, February 27

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. NEW YORK
Toronto is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New York's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto
New York is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home

7:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CLEVELAND
Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Golden State

7:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 17 games at home
Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta

8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. DALLAS
Miami is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

9:30 PM
INDIANA vs. HOUSTON
Indiana is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 21 games when playing at home against Indiana
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana

10:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota's last 13 games
Minnesota is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Sacramento is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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**Udog** · 02-27-2017, 11:48 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, February 27

Minnesota @ Sacramento

Game 513-514
February 27, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
113.300
Sacramento
111.872
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 5
212
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+5); Over

Miami @ Dallas

Game 511-512
February 27, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
111.981
Dallas
116.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2
200
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2); Over

Indiana @ Houston

Game 509-510
February 27, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
118.397
Houston
131.883
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 13 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 10
230
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-10); Under

Atlanta @ Boston

Game 507-508
February 27, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
117.044
Boston
128.178
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 11
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 4 1/2
212
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-4 1/2); Under

Golden State @ Philadelphia

Game 505-506
February 27, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
122.865
Philadelphia
119.002
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 13 1/2
231 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+13 1/2); Under

Milwaukee @ Cleveland

Game 503-504
February 27, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
115.385
Cleveland
120.191
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 4
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 8 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+8 1/2); Over

Toronto @ New York

Game 501-502
February 27, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
121.343
New York
117.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 4
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-2); Over

**Udog** · 02-27-2017, 04:09 PM

NBA betting road map: Miami remains the NBA's hottest bet

Miami was 11-30 through its first 41 games (19-22 ATS) but over their last 18 games the Heat have won and covered 16 - with an average pointspread differential of +9.44.

The NBA's trade deadline is in the rear view mirror, and the only blockbuster trade was an unexpected one. The New Orleans Pelicans acquired DeMarcus Cousins from the Sacramento Kings for a mix of uninspiring players and draft picks. Meanwhile, the one team many expected to make a move, the Boston Celtics, stood pat as GM Danny Ainge was unable to find an offer compelling enough to part with any of his highly-valued draft picks.

The next three days will see some additional player movement as those players who are bought out will be free to sign with another team and be eligible for the playoffs. The clear winners of the trade deadline were the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers, as no team emerged as a bigger threat to supplant either from its perch at the top of their respective conferences.

Let's take a look at the upcoming week in the NBA.

Spread Watch

Has there ever been a turnaround by a more unlikely team than what is happening right now with Miami? (Hint: the answer is 'no.')

Miami was 11-30 through its first 41 games (19-22 ATS), and nobody thought Erik Spoelstra's team was greatly underachieving, but over their last 18 games the Heat have won and covered 16 - with an average pointspread differential of +9.44. When Miami was in the midst of its 13-game SU/ATS win streak, the criticism was that its slate of opponents was not overly difficult (notwithstanding its upset of the best team in history, Golden State). It's true that just three of those 13 opponents had winning records (although eight had better records than the Heat), but check out the three teams Miami has just defeated on its current three-game SU/ATS win streak: Houston, Atlanta and Indiana. All three are above .500, and the Heat covered the spread by double-digits in each of those games - by an average of 17.3 points.

This week the Heat's schedule will be decidedly easier as they kick it off with games against Dallas, Philadelphia and Orlando (all among the worst eight teams in the league) before finishing up with Cleveland. Will Miami's turnaround continue? I wouldn't bet against it - at least not on Monday - as the Heat are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS their last 11 versus Dallas.

Totals Watch

The Memphis Grizzlies, under former coach Dave Joerger, were a defensive-oriented ball-club. One of the reasons for Joerger's hire in Sacramento was that Kings management wanted those principles instilled among their young players.

The results this season are decidedly mixed as Sacramento currently ranks No. 23 in defensive efficiency. But lately, the Kings have been playing very good defense as only two of the Kings' last seven opponents have scored more than 100 points. One of those clubs was Golden State which "only" scored 109 versus Sacramento - nine points below its offensive average.

Not surprisingly, the Kings have gone 'under' the total in six of their last seven games (including the last five in a row). This week, Sacramento will face Minnesota, Brooklyn, Utah and Denver. The game versus the Jazz looks to be the best candidate to go 'under' as Utah has held its last four opponents to 95 points or less (3-1 'under') and the last three meetings between the Jazz and Kings have been relatively low-scoring affairs.

Injury Watch

Chris Paul was back on the court this past Friday versus the Spurs after missing his team's previous 14 games as he recovered from left thumb surgery. The Clippers went 6-8 SU and 8-6 ATS in those 14 games, so his return was seen as the catalyst to pushing the Clips back up in the Western Conference standings.

Unfortunately, Los Angeles lost 105-97 to the Spurs, but did bounce back with a hard-fought three-point overtime win versus Charlotte (although they failed to cover the spread in both games).

For the season, Los Angeles is 28-10 SU and 19-19 ATS with Paul in the lineup, and that .736 win percentage would have placed L.A. in third place in the Western Conference if it had been able to maintain their play in the games without Paul. Their chances of catching the Rockets for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference are growing increasingly slim as Houston is five games up in the loss column.

This week the Clips will have a great opportunity to close that gap as they'll host the Rockets on Wednesday before traveling to the midwest to play road games at Milwaukee and Chicago. The Clippers should rout Houston, as Los Angeles will be playing with revenge from a 140-116 loss at Houston earlier this season and .585 (or better) teams are 79-25 SU and 64-38-2 ATS since 1992 as home favorites in the regular season if they're playing with revenge from a 24-point (or worse) defeat.

Schedule Watch

After a 22-8 start to the season, in which Toronto outscored its opponents by 9.0 points per game, Dwane Casey's men stumbled greatly. Toronto lost 16 of its next 26 games so management decided to make some changes.

The first was a Valentine's Day trade with the Orlando Magic to acquire Serge Ibaka. Then, this past Thursday, GM Masai Ujiri dealt Jared Sullinger and a couple of 2nd round draft picks to Phoenix for P.J. Tucker. The addition of Ibaka and Tucker greatly improves Toronto's defense. Ibaka is a great rim protector while Tucker is a tough-minded, versatile defender.

Since bringing in Ibaka, the Raptors have gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS and have held their opponents to just 96 ppg - more than 10 points below the offensive average of those three teams.

This week, Toronto will travel to Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks on Monday, before a home-and-home series with the Washington Wizards on Wednesday and Friday. The Wizards are currently the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference so these two games are among the biggest games left on Toronto's schedule. The Raptors have won all five of the meetings between these two clubs the past two seasons.

Look for Toronto to extend its win streak vs. the Wizards to six games, as Toronto will have a scheduling advantage on Wednesday. The Wizards will be playing without rest, while the Raptors will be rested. The Raptors are 89-62 SU and 81-65-3 ATS at home when rested against an unrested foe.

Announcement

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/27

Monday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 2/27

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