The Bum's Top 25 College Basketball Previews For Saturday 02/11/16 !

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Preview: Ducks (21-4) at Trojans (21-4)
Date: February 11, 2017 10:30 PM EDT

LOS ANGELES -- Oregon's 13-game winning streak over USC matches its longest ever against a Pac-12 opponent.

The fifth-ranked Ducks know it won't be easy to keep that streak alive.

Oregon and USC bring identical 21-4 records into Saturday's game at the Galen Center.

"USC is a good team that plays well at home," Oregon coach Dana Altman said. "We are going to have to play our tails off and our guys know that. USC is talented, so we have to play harder."

Oregon fell out of first place in the conference when it blew a 19-point lead in an 82-79 loss to 10th-ranked UCLA on Thursday to drop to 10-2 in the Pac-12, one game back of Arizona.

"We let this one slip, no doubt about it," said Oregon guard Tyler Dorsey, who scored 19 points against UCLA. "We have to bounce back and finish out this week with a win. We cannot let this linger. "

If Oregon loses to USC, it could fall from first into a three-way tie for second in a three-day span.

"It is not easy because we extended a lot of energy against UCLA," Altman said. "It will be tough to bounce back, but Saturday we will be ready."

Oregon beat the Trojans 84-61 in Eugene in December to match its 13 straight wins against Washington State from 2002-07 for its longest streak against a conference foe. The Ducks have won six straight at USC.

While Oregon has won 40 in a row at home, the Ducks are 3-3 in true road games.

Junior forward Dillon Brooks scored 19 points against UCLA to push his team lead to 14.6 points per game, but Oregon has four other players averaging in double figures.

Dorsey is scoring 12.8 points per game while 6-foot-10 senior center Chris Boucher averages 12.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Guard Dylan Ennis is scoring 10.9 points and Jordan Bell is at 10.8 while leading the team with 7.4 rebounds per game.

USC has won five in a row to move into fifth place in the conference at 8-4 as it prepares for a rematch with the Ducks.

"I don't know if it is revenge, Oregon is a great team," USC coach Andy Enfield said. "They won the league last year and are ranked in the top five. It's an opportunity for us to play well on our home floor and win a game."

Chimezie Metu, a 6-11 sophomore, leads the Trojans with 14.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while junior guard Elijah Stewart is at 13.7.

Bennie Boatwright, a 6-10 sophomore averaging 13.3 points, scored 16 in USC's 92-66 win over Oregon State on Thursday, his third game back since missing 15 due to a sprained knee ligament.

"It's great having him back," said USC sophomore guard Shaqquan Aaron. "He's a great player. Bennie's a great weapon. He can score inside, outside, and it helps everbody around him."

Aaron scored 21 points against Oregon State to boost his average to 9.2 points after sitting out last year following his transfer from Louisville.

"I guess you could say that I'm getting used to the flow of the game because, at the beginning of the season, I hadn't played college basketball for a while," he said. "I'm just letting the game come to me."

Junior point guard Jordan McLaughlin is averaging 13.2 points and a team-high 5.1 assists.

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Saturday's Tip Sheet
February 10, 2017

**Florida State at Notre Dame**

-- Florida State (21-4 straight up, 14-8-1 against the spread) is in a first-place tie with North Carolina atop the ACC standings. Leonard Hamilton’s squad improved to 9-3 in conference action with Wednesday’s 95-71 win over North Carolina State as a 13.5-point home favorite. Jonathan Isaac led way with 21 points and seven rebounds, while Dwayne Bacon contributed 19 points and nine boards. Michael Ojo added 11 points and six rebounds.

-- FSU owns a 2-3 record both SU and ATS on the road.

-- FSU is No. 6 in the RPI Rankings, 14th in the Associated Press’s poll and No. 13 at KenPom.com. The ‘Noles are 5-1 against the RPI Top 25, 9-1 versus the Top 50 and 13-4 against the Top 100. They own home wins over Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, Va. Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville and Clemson. They’ve also won at Virginia and at Miami, in addition to a neutral-court win over Illinois. FSU’s setbacks have come at UNC, at Ga. Tech, at Syracuse and vs. Temple on a neutral floor.

-- Bacon, a sophomore guard, is averaging a team-best 17.6 points per game while making 38.4 percent of his launches from 3-point range. Isaac averages 13.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots per game.

-- FSU is ranked No. 14 in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 84.8 PPG. The ‘Noles are also 14th in field-goal percentage (49.0%).

-- Notre Dame (18-7 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) is in seventh place in the ACC with a 7-5 record in league play. In other words, Mike Brey’s team is a Final Four contender. That’s zero stretch this season when the conference might get 10 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

-- Notre Dame is 13-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in the Joyce Center this year. The Fighting Irish snapped a four-game losing streak by capturing an 88-81 win Wednesday over Wake Forest as a 5.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Bonzie Colson was the catalyst with 27 points, 16 rebounds, five blocked shots, two steals and a pair of assists. V.J. Beachem added 19 points and four blocks, while Steve Vasturia finished with 17 points and seven rebounds. Matt Farrell contributed 16 points and six assists.

-- Notre Dame is No. 27 in the RPI, but it has lost six of seven games against Top-25 opponents. Brey’s team is 5-6 versus the Top 50 and 9-7 against the Top 100. The Irish owns home wins over Louisville, Wake Forest, Iowa, Clemson and Syracuse. It also has a neutral-court scalp of Northwestern, in addition to wins at Va. Tech, at Miami and at Pitt.

-- Colson (16.1 PPG, 10.8 RPG) is averaging a double-double and leads the team with 39 blocked shots. Beachem (15.2 PPG) is hitting 38.0 percent of his 3-pointers, while Farrell (14.1 PPG) is draining 44.4 percent of his 3’s and has dished out a team-best 5.4 APG. Vasturia (14.0 PPG) is making 90.5 percent of his free throws and has an 82/44 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

-- Notre Dame leads the nation in free-throw percentage (80.7%) and ranks 18th in makes from downtown (40.0%).

-- When these teams met in Tallahassee on Jan. 18, FSU captured an 83-80 win but the Irish took the cash as a 5.5-point road underdog. The 163 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 156-point total. Isaac led the ‘Noles with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocked shots. Vasturia scored a team-high 18 points, burying 4-of-6 attempts from long distance. Farrell finished with 17 points and seven assists, making 3-of-4 shots from 3-point range.

-- The ‘over’ is 13-10-1 overall for the ‘Noles, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run for FSU.

-- The ‘over’ is 11-8-1 overall for the Irish, 7-2 in its home outings.

-- As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore book had Notre Dame listed as a 2.5-point favorite.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s**

-- As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore shops had Gonzaga (25-0 SU, 17-4-1 ATS) installed as a three-point road favorite.

-- Gonzaga is the last remaining unbeaten team and is ranked No. 1 in the country for the first time in school history. Mark Few’s team is off of Thursday’s 90-60 win at Loyola-Marymount as a 17-point road ‘chalk.’ Nigel Williams-Goss led the way with 19 points and 11 rebounds. Johnathan Williams finished with 13 points, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. Jordan Mathews, Zach Collins and Killian Tillie were also in double figures with 11 points apiece.

-- Gonzaga owns a 6-1 spread record in its eight road victories.

-- Gonzaga is ranked third in the country in field-goal percentage (51.5%), 12th in scoring (85.6 PPG), second in field-goal percentage defense (37.0%), eighth in scoring defense (61.6 PPG) and eighth at defending the 3-point line (29.5%).

-- Gonzaga is No. 12 in the RPI with three wins over Top-25 foes, six wins versus the Top 50 and seven wins against the Top 100. The Bulldogs have neutral-court wins vs. Florida, Iowa St., Arizona and Tennessee. They have home wins over Akron and Saint Mary’s, in addition to a victory at BYU.

-- Williams-Goss paces Gonzaga in scoring (15.8 PPG), assists (4.7 APG), rebounding (5.9 RPG) and steals (1.7 SPG). Przemek Karnowski is averaging 12.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game while shooting at a 61.0 percent clip from the field. Zach Collins (10.8 PPG) is averaging 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots per game, while Mathews (10.6 PPG) is also averaging double figures.

-- Saint Mary’s (22-2 SU, 11-9-1 ATS) has won 13 of its 14 home games while going 4-6 ATS. The Gaels have won seven in a row after Thursday’s 51-41 non-covering home win over Portland as 24-point home favorites. Jock Landale paced Randy Bennett’s team with 13 points, 10 rebounds and two blocked shots. Emmett Naar added 11 points and Joe Rahon was in double figures with 10 points and five boards.

-- Landale leads the Gaels in scoring (16.7 PPG), rebounding (9.5 RPG) and blocked shots (1.2 BPG). Calvin Hermanson (12.8 PPG) and Naar (10.1 PPG) are also scoring in double figures while making 43.5 percent and 45.2 percent of their 3-pointers, respectively. Rahon (8.8 PPG) has a stellar 139/37 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is hitting 38.5 percent of his 3’s.

-- Saint Mary’s is ranked No. 20 in the AP poll and No. 19 in the RPI. The Gaels are 0-1 against the Top 25, 2-1 versus the Top 50 and 4-2 against the Top 100. They have home wins over Nevada and BYU, in addition to road scalps of Dayton and Stanford. Their defeats have come at Gonzaga and vs. UT-Arlington.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (11-11-1) for the Bulldogs, who have seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their eight road assignments.

-- The ‘under’ is 13-8-1 overall for the Gaels, 6-5 in their home games.

-- When these teams met in Spokane on Jan. 14, Gonzaga rolled to a 79-56 win as a five-point home favorite. The 135 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 136.5-point tally. Williams-Goss led the winners with 19 points and six assists compared to just one turnover. Williams finished with 14 points, five rebounds and five blocked shots, while Mathews scored 16 points. Hermanson scored a team-best 12 points in the losing effort.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a 10-1 clip in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these WCC rivals.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Ohio State guard JaQuan Lyle is ‘out’ Saturday at Maryland for personal reasons. Lyle is averaging 11.4 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game.

-- St. Joseph’s James Demery has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. UMass. Demery, who averages 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, missed Wednesday’s 77-70 loss at Dayton due to an illness. Nevertheless, the Hawks took the cash as 16-point underdogs.

-- Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are tied for first place in the SEC with identical 9-2 records. The Gators are absolutely on fire with five straight wins both SU and ATS. They’ve won those five games by margins of 35 (at LSU), 32 (at Oklahoma), 39 (vs. Missouri), 22 (vs. Kentucky) and 12 (at Georgia). Mike White’s squad was listed as a 14-point home favorite vs. Texas A&M late Friday afternoon. These SEC adversaries will collide Saturday at noon Eastern in Gainesville on ESPN2.

-- John Calipari’s UK team has lost three of its last five games and is mired in an abysmal 1-8 ATS slump. The Wildcats will try to snap out of their slump Saturday at Alabama. They were favored by seven late Friday afternoon for the 1:00 p.m. Eastern tip on CBS. The Crimson Tide has posted a 4-5 spread record with three outright wins in nine games as an underdog. If the total holds (one offshore had it at 148.5 late Friday afternoon), it will be the highest the Tide has seen this season. The ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive ‘Bama games and seven of its last nine.

-- Georgia had covered the number in seven straight games as an underdog until Tuesday’s 72-60 loss to Florida as a 4.5-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs are in the role of puppies again Saturday at Tennessee. The Volunteers, who are 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last six games, opened as five-point home ‘chalk.’ UGA and UT will collide at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

-- Mississippi State owns a 3-0 spread record with two outright wins over Tennessee and South Carolina in a trio of games as a home underdog. Ben Howland’s squad will take that role again Saturday catching five points vs. South Carolina at The Hump. The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

-- Last (televised) call for gamblers Saturday night? Arizona (-8.5) vs. Cal at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

-- That dagger of a step-back 3-ball from about 30 feet out by UCLA’s Lonzo Ball to put Oregon away on Thursday night was a thing of beauty!

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Saturday's Upsets to Watch
February 10, 2017

The month of February is all about rivalry games and resume building for the NCAA Tournament in college basketball and so far the early days of this month have lived up to that billing. This weekend there are plenty of ranked teams in action looking to strengthen their position for either a high tournament seed or a conference crown, but faltering down the stretch of the regular season can be highly detrimental. Let's take a look at some of the teams who are on upset alert on Saturday.

Game #1: #2 Villanova at #25 Xavier

Some may not think Villanova has much to worry about in this game after they beat Xavier by 25 points back in early January, but this is definitely one of those games the second ranked team in the country has to be put on upset alert.

Xavier may have got blown out in that first meeting, but they were actually hanging around at halftime (34-28) before totally collapsing in the second half. Nobody on the Musketeers could get their shots to consistently drop – they shot 29.3% from the field – and their leading scorer ws Edmond Sumner with just 11 points. Conversely, Villanova was hitting everything (53.8% shooting) and had a total team effort with five guys scoring in double-digits.

But with the scenery changing this time around, expect Xavier to shoot the ball much better as they are 12-1 SU at home and a win would put them just a half-game behind Villanova for top spot in the Big East.

There is no doubt that the Musketeers have had this game circled on their calendar since that blowout loss earlier and with Villanova starting to feel the pressure from everyone being the #2 ranked team as evidenced by their 0-6 ATS run, it may only be a matter of time before this team cracks again on the road in conference play.

Both of Villanova's losses this year have come away from home to quality conference rivals in Marquette and Butler and Xavier would love to add their names to that list.

Game #2: #1 Gonzaga at #20 St Mary's

The Gonzaga/St Mary's rivalry is one that doesn't get talked about in the same breath as the UNC/Duke, Kansas/Kansas State or Syracuse/Georgetown's of the world but it's just as intense. These two teams typically find themselves battling one another for the WCC title and this year is no different. The two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings entering Saturday and St Mary's only loss in their last 17 games came at Gonzaga in the middle of January.

Like the first meeting between Villanova and Xavier, St Mary's had the same problem that the Musketeers did in their first meeting; they couldn't get shots to fall and couldn't stop Gonzaga from hitting everything. Gonzaga shot 64.7% from the floor that day as they used a dominant second half run to pull away and never look back. It didn't hurt the Bulldogs cause that St Mary's shot less than 40% from the floor and their top scorer – Calvin Hermanson – had just 12 points.

Those numbers should drastically change for both sides with this game being at St. Mary's as the Gaels are 13-1 SU in this building and that lone defeat was an absolute shocker to Texas-Arlington in early December.

Gonzaga remains the lone undefeated team left in college basketball and many believe this will be their last test of the regular season to keep that mark unblemished. But with the steep history of this rivalry often splitting the two matchups, don't be surprised to see St Mary's end that pipe dream for the Bulldogs and hand Gonzaga its first loss.

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SEC Snapshot
February 9, 2017

The SEC has generally been considered the weakest of the major basketball conferences of late, but over the past 11 years, the conference has produced eight Final Four teams and three national championship teams. Only the Big East can top that with nine Final Four teams in that run, but that conference has gone through more significant changes in that span. Right now, it looks like only four teams are bound for the NCAA Tournament from the SEC, but they are four teams with potential to win multiple games in March. Here is a look at the teams with a shot to make the Big Dance though it looks like only three teams are assured spots.

Favorite – Kentucky (9-2 S/U, 4-7 ATS): With three freshmen that are projected first round NBA draft picks, Kentucky as usual is one of the most talented teams in the nation. This year’s team is still the favorite for the SEC title, but it isn’t clear if this young group could come together for a great NCAA Tournament run or whether another first weekend exit is more likely. Despite being a high caliber team in all of the John Calipari era, Kentucky only has three outright SEC titles in the past 11 years plus last season’s shared title with Texas A&M. Kentucky’s toughest remaining games including a rematch with Florida will be at home to keep the Wildcats in the driver’s seat. While Kentucky rates as the top offensive team in the SEC, the defensive numbers are closer to the middle of the pack and superior defensive teams South Carolina and Florida will be threats to unseat the Wildcats who may be hitting a freshmen wall with a 1-8 overall ATS run since early January.

Contender – Florida (9-2 S/U, 7-4 ATS): Since a surprising home loss to Vanderbilt, Florida has been on a tear with five straight double-digit wins including a 22-point home win over Kentucky to announce that the Gators are back as a national force. Florida lost three out of five games at one point early in the year, but those opponents have all wound up being top-20 caliber squads and if Florida can beat Kentucky again, they will likely take the SEC title. They also still have to play South Carolina again, but this time it will be in Gainesville and the rest of the remaining schedule looks favorable. In his second season with Florida, Michael White’s team is rated second in the SEC in offensive and defensive efficiency and after some inconsistent shooting early in the season, Florida has shot much stronger from 3-point range in recent weeks. Florida has an impressive resume through one of the nation’s toughest schedules and after missing the NCAA Tournament last season, the Gators are poised to be a serious March threat this season.

Overachiever – South Carolina (9-2 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS): The Gamecocks are the #1 defensive efficiency squad in the nation and South Carolina is still in the mix for a SEC championship even following the epic four-overtime loss at home against Alabama. Three non-conference losses against quality teams all came with senior Sindarius Thornwell suspended and while the Gamecocks were blasted at Kentucky with a 16-point defeat, they won’t have to face them again. South Carolina does have a difficult game at Florida remaining, but they should be favored to win every other remaining game in a breakthrough season for Frank Martin in his fifth year in Columbia. In the three-team conference race, South Carolina likely ends up a step behind Kentucky and Florida with the team featuring the worst effective field goal rate in the entire 14-team SEC.

Bubble Team – Tennessee (6-5 S/U, 6-5 ATS): The Volunteers have 10 losses but after a 1-3 start in SEC play, Tennessee is up to 6-5 with a strong run of play the past three weeks that includes a win over Kentucky and an impressive non-conference win over Kansas State. The Volunteers played a tough non-conference schedule though they didn’t win any of the big early season games other than beating Georgia Tech. They’ll still end the season having faced one of the nation’s toughest slates which should help the cause with the selection committee. While the young Volunteers have some current momentum bouncing back from an upset loss with a comeback win hosting Mississippi this week, the remaining schedule is daunting with road games vs. Kentucky and South Carolina. Tennessee has three home losses this season and games with Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Alabama won’t be assured wins for a team that has been inconsistent. Ultimately, Tennessee probably needs to reach a double-digit win mark in SEC play to stay inside the NCAA Tournament picture as there isn’t much margin of error unless the Volunteers score another major upset vs. one of the league’s top three teams.

Sleeper – Alabama (7-4 S/U, 5-6 ATS): Sleeper candidacy for Alabama in the SEC race gained some credibility with this week’s four-overtime win at South Carolina. That was a fourth road win for the Crimson Tide in league play this season and while the ceiling doesn’t look as high for this squad, winning out isn’t impossible with the remaining schedule. The toughest remaining game is this weekend hosting Kentucky, but with the Wildcats clearly out of sync of late that upset looks a bit more plausible than it did a few weeks ago. The remaining road games are at Missouri and Texas A&M before a finale at Tennessee that could be a critical game on both sides. Alabama has a lot of work to do to even reach NCAA Tournament consideration as they aren’t even on the bubble at this point and a win this weekend vs. Kentucky is a required piece of the puzzle. Alabama played close with a number of quality teams in the non-conference campaign and with a SEC schedule that features the top three teams just once each a run to a 14-4 finish is unlikely, but not impossible for a team that has quality defensive numbers and is the best rebounding team in the conference.

Enigma – Arkansas (6-5 S/U, 5-6 ATS): Arkansas started the season 11-1 with a couple of decent wins on the resume, but the Razorbacks have been a puzzling team in league play. Arkansas has three road wins including winning at Tennessee, but they have also lost badly in several games while handing Missouri its only SEC win so far. That bad loss likely ended the NCAA Tournament candidacy for Arkansas, but March Madness hopes are still on life support with remaining opportunities for quality wins though the upcoming games vs. South Carolina and Florida are both on the road. Getting to 10-8 in SEC play likely won’t be enough for Arkansas, but they could make a reasonable bubble case at 12-6 or 11-7 especially if they score one of those big road upsets. Mike Anderson’s squad is very capable offensively and is the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC, but surprisingly hasn’t created turnovers with its pressure defense as usual. Arkansas needs to win almost all of the remaining coin-flip games to stay in the conversation, but this squad has a better postseason chance than most probably would expect given some of the recent outings.

Underachiever – Mississippi (5-6 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS): Wednesday’s loss at Tennessee was emblematic of how much of the season has gone for Ole Miss as the Rebels led the entire second half until inside of three-minutes only to get outscored 15-2 to finish the game, losing and not even holding on for the underdog cover. Ole Miss similarly failed to close out wins vs. Texas A&M and in a big non-conference opportunity vs. Baylor in late January as at 5-6 NCAA Tournament, hopes for the Rebels no longer exist despite a favorable remaining schedule. Four of the final seven SEC games are at home, including the finale with South Carolina as the Rebels drew a very tough path this season with seven games vs. the league’s likely top four teams. Five home losses on the season already is a very disappointing result for Andy Kennedy’s 11th season, but this team could have some upset potential down the stretch or in the SEC Tournament with great free throw shooting and offensive rebounding numbers and one of the better interior defenses in the conference as this looks like a stronger team than the results have shown.

Long Shot – Georgia (4-7 S/U, 7-4 ATS): With a 4-2 SEC start, Georgia looked like a candidate to make a run to the top tier of the SEC as the losses came by six and by four in overtime vs. South Carolina and Florida. The Gators have lost five SEC games in a row since, only mixing in a narrow non-conference win over Texas. The past three losses have come against Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida in succession including an overtime loss at Kentucky and a two-point loss at South Carolina as the Bulldogs haven’t missed by much in what could have been a stronger season. They still have to play Kentucky again at home next week, facing the three contenders twice each for possibly the toughest SEC slate any team has drawn. Non-conference losses to Clemson, Kansas, and Marquette give Georgia a great strength of schedule rating and should the Bulldogs rally to finish 10-8 in SEC play and perhaps win a few SEC tournament games the case for NCAA Tournament inclusion would be possible. Beating Kentucky in the toughest remaining home game will be required, but with home games vs. Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn remaining, there is a good chance Georgia closes February with much better results than the month has started with.

Cash Collector – Vanderbilt (5-6 S/U, 7-4 ATS): The Commodores have won four of the past six games including three road wins with a big upset at Florida while also impressively beating Iowa State in non-conference action. Six non-conference losses and five home losses on the season dooms any hopes for Bryce Drew to get this team into the NCAA Tournament, but Vanderbilt could continue its run as one of the best ATS teams in the conference. They still get to play all four of the top teams in the SEC which should draw some favorable underdog pricing and Vanderbilt rates third in the SEC in offensive efficiency. The Commodores can have rebounding issues, but they are one of the best outside shooting teams in the conference while also leading the SEC in free throw percentage. Vanderbilt won without Matthew Fisher-Davis on Tuesday at Arkansas and with mostly veteran contributors this is a squad that should continue to play at a high level even if a difficult remaining schedule might mean more close losses for a team that has 10 losses by 12 or fewer points this season.

Cash Burner – Texas A&M (5-6 S/U, 3-8 ATS): In the non-conference season, Texas A&M looked like a tough-luck loser with narrow defeats against USC, UCLA, and Arizona, but the Aggies started SEC play 1-5. Texas A&M has rallied to reach 5-6 in league play, but three of the five wins are vs. LSU and Missouri, the clear bottom two teams in the conference as the Aggies have played the SEC’s weakest schedule so far. Games with Florida and Kentucky remain with four of the final seven on the road and it seems unlikely that the losing ATS fortune will change for this squad given that the three of five SEC wins have come by four or fewer points. The Aggies have the worst turnover rate in the SEC while getting to the free throw line on offense at the third lowest rate in the conference while on defense allowing foes to shoot 38 percent from 3-point range. Texas A&M doesn’t have a top 50 win on the season while possessing only three top 100 wins all season by a combined total of eight points and six of the seven remaining games are vs. top 100 squads.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Snapshot
February 7, 2017

Since Kansas won the NCAA Tournament in April 2008, the Big XII has only sent two teams to the Final Four in the eight tournaments since. This year, the Big XII looks loaded with eight of the conference’s ten teams in the mix to make the Big Dance and three teams possibly in the mix for #1 or #2 seeds. After upsets filled the weekend schedule in Big XII play, here is a look at the remaining contenders for tournament bids.

Favorite – Kansas (9-2 S/U, 2-8-1 ATS): The Jayhawks have won 12 consecutive Big XII titles to have a firm hold on the favorite status in the league, but note that four of the championships in that run were shared titles and that result is a real possibility this season. Kansas has turned in high profile non-conference wins over Duke and Kentucky as the Jayhawks are on a #1 seed track should they stay on top of the Big XII standings. Josh Jackson is one of the most impressive freshmen in the country and while senior guard Frank Mason is a player of the year candidate incredibly shooting 52 percent from 3-point range. Kansas has just a +4.4 scoring differential in Big XII play and with losses in two of the past four conference games with the wins coming by five and three points extending the title streak is not a given. In defensive efficiency, this is the worst Kansas team Bill Self has featured in now 14 seasons while also being one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation as the opportunity is there for the other contenders to reach the top.

Contender – Baylor (7-3 S/U, 4-6 ATS): The Bears delivered an incredibly impressive non-conference season picking up wins over Oregon, VCU, Michigan State, Louisville, and Xavier as they are a #1 seed contender even if they wind up a runner-up in the Big XII race. Back-to-back losses have soured a 7-1 start in league play, but they have already faced West Virginia and Kansas on the road and the toughest remaining games will be at home. Baylor is the Big XII’s top defensive team but the offense can have inconsistency with a high turnover rate and marginal outside shooting. Each of the last six Big XII wins have come by 10 or fewer points as the losing ATS mark in league play could continue for the Bears, but if they win the remaining home games and avoid upset risk games at Oklahoma State or at Iowa State, Baylor could find its way into the top spot in the conference standings.

Overachiever – West Virginia (6-4 S/U, 4-6 ATS): Most power ratings still call West Virginia a top-10 caliber team with the big victory at Virginia in non-conference play carrying a lot of weight. The Mountaineers have lost two overtime games in Big XII play, but it is hard to envision the team winning out to claim the conference title. Road games vs. Kansas and Baylor remain on the schedule and West Virginia has lost twice at home in conference play including falling against an Oklahoma squad at the bottom of the standings. With its propensity to create turnovers, West Virginia is capable of delivering high end performances, but poor free throw shooting and a torrid pace of play makes the Mountaineers more at risk for upsets as well. West Virginia’s overall schedule is rated as the second-weakest among Big XII teams and it seems more likely that the Mountaineers fall back to the pack than rise up to the top of the Big XII in the remaining weeks.

Sleeper – Iowa State (6-4 S/U, 6-4 ATS): Iowa State just handed Kansas its first Big XII home loss in more than four years and while the Cyclones remain a only a bit ahead of the NCAA Tournament bubble due to an unimpressive non-conference season, they could become a realistic player in the Big XII race. They have both Kansas games out of the way and will play Baylor again at home, while the road game at West Virginia is in the final conference game of the season that may not be critically important for the Mountaineers. While winning out looks unlikely, the remaining schedule is reasonable and a strong run to finish 12-6 or 11-5 isn’t unrealistic for this squad. As one of the most experienced teams in the nation, Iowa State has one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation and the Cyclones have had their outside shooting heat up in recent games, hitting nearly 40 percent in Big XII play. Iowa State has been a little lucky with two overtime wins in conference play, but if there is a long shot candidate to possibly take home a share of the conference title, the Cyclones fit the bill.

Enigma – Oklahoma State (4-6 S/U, 6-4 ATS): After starting Big XII play 0-6, Oklahoma State has won the past four games in conference play plus a non-conference win over Arkansas. Despite the 5-6 record, Oklahoma State has outscored its opponents by 20 points over the last 11 games and last weekend’s win at West Virginia legitimized the return to relevancy in the conference picture for the Cowboys. The toughest remaining games are at home with this week’s game vs. Baylor and the finale vs. Kansas and Oklahoma State won’t be more than a slight underdog in the six games in between as getting back to .500 or higher in league play is a possibility. Oklahoma State lives by the 3-point shot with its up-tempo pace and in conference play, the Cowboys have hit over 42 percent from beyond the arc. This is the least efficient defense in the Big XII and the offense can struggle with turnovers at times despite the great backcourt. This is a still rather young team, but a team on the rise that has learned from a number of tight losses vs. quality teams to emerge as a threat in any remaining matchup though a few puzzling losses down the stretch won’t be a surprise either.

Long Shot – Kansas State (5-6 S/U, 5-4-2 ATS): The 11-2 non-conference mark featured zero top 100 wins for Kansas State as they are certainly just barely ahead of the cut line for the NCAA Tournament right now. Kansas State looks the part on the court and while there are not a lot of high quality wins the past three Big XII wins came at Oklahoma State, at home vs. West Virginia, and at Baylor for a trio of very high caliber quality wins. Narrow non-conference losses to Maryland and Tennessee don’t look too damaging and every Big XII loss has come by nine or fewer points including three losses by three or fewer points plus another overtime result. After the upcoming trip to Morgantown, the toughest road games are out of the way as this looks like a team that could close the year with some momentum to finish with a winning record to sit in the upper half of the Big XII. Along with West Virginia, Kansas State is the only other team in the top five of the Big XII in offensive and defensive efficiency and while a lot would have to go right for the Wildcats to climb back into Big XII contention, they are likely a play-on team coming out of the current 1-4 run the past five games.

Bubble Team – TCU (5-5 S/U, 6-4 ATS): In his first season in Fort Worth, Jamie Dixon has the Horned Frogs already by last season’s win count and in contention for the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 1998. TCU is on fragile ground as the non-conference resume is providing little help and three of the five Big XII wins have come against the bottom two teams in the standings. The remaining schedule is very difficult with road games in Waco, Ames, and Lawrence as well as home games vs. West Virginia and two other potential Big XII bubble teams in Texas Tech and Kansas State. A .500 finish in a highly regarded Big XII would probably be enough to get serious consideration, but the Frogs could really use a major win vs. one of the top teams. They’ll have plenty of upcoming chances, but a team that for the most part looks middle-of-the-pack or worse in most conference measures is also in danger of suffering a rocky run to close out February that could sink a promising season.

Sinker – Texas Tech (4-6 S/U, 4-6 ATS): Texas Tech made the NCAA Tournament last season, but Tubby Smith left to take over at Memphis. Chris Beard was hired after just one successful season at Arkansas-Little Rock and the Red Raiders have held their own so far. They have faced the weakest schedule of any Big XII team as the 12-1 non-conference record features a loss to the only top 100 team they faced while all the heavyweights are coming up on the late February Big XII schedule. Texas Tech’s four conference wins have come by 1, 1, 6, and 8 points with the Red Raiders 0-5 on the road. In conference play, the Red Raiders rate in the bottom four in both offensive and defensive efficiency and despite great experience, coming up with enough quality wins to keep the Red Raiders in the NCAA Tournament mix looks unlikely. With losses to Oklahoma and Texas already included in the 4-6 league mark, things look likely to only get worse for this team.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends to Watch - Saturday
February 11, 2017

Irish Times

Notre Dame welcomes Florida State to South Bend in a key Atlantic Coast Conference battle between two contender at 6:00 p.m. ET. The Seminoles have won four of the past five in this series, including an 83-80 win in Tallahassee on Jan. 18. If FSU is going to win again they'll need to contain Irish junior Bonzie Colson. He has managed 15 double-doubles to lead the ACC. Meanwhile, the Irish are second in the country with a 1.71 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Irish put the brakes on a four-game losing skid with an 88-81 win against Wake Forest on Tuesday, earning their second cover in a row. Notre Dame has posted a 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven games after covering in their previous outing. They're 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, and the Irish are 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 league games. In addition, Notre Dame is 15-7 ATS in their past 22 games at home.

For the Seminoles, they have been flying against the top teams. FSU is just 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, but they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine against teams with a winning overall record. After losing a pair of road games at Georgia Tech and Syracuse Jan. 25-28, the 'Noles have pieced together a 3-0 SU/ATS streak, winning by an average of 30.0 points. The 'over' is 7-3 in FSU's past 10 games overall, although the 'under' has hit in five of their past seven on the road. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six home games against ACC foes.

Un-bear-able

Baylor has struggled lately, winning just once in their past three games. However, after a two-game skid against the two Kansas schools, the Bears picked up a much-needed victory at Oklahoma State last time out. After opening the season 7-1 ATS over their first eight games with a spread, the Bears are just 4-7 ATS over their past 11 outings.

The Bears will host Texas Christian, a team not exactly lighting it up against the number lately, either. The Horned Frogs are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six tries against teams with an overall winning mark. TCU is also 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Waco, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series. The road team has cashed in eight of the past 11, though, so that at least bodes well for the Horned Frogs.

As far as the total is concerned, these teams have been going in totally different directions. The 'over' is 4-1 in TCU's past five games on the road, and the over is 5-2 in their past seven games as an underdog. The over is also 7-2 in their past nine against teams with a winning overall record. For Baylor, the 'under' is 5-1 in the past six outings overall, and 4-1 in their past five at home. The under is also 6-2 in their past eight as a favorite. In this series, the 'over' has cashed in seven of the past nine.

Must-see ACC

Duke looks to build on its Battle of the Blues win against North Carolina, welcoming Clemson to Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and 0-5 ATS in their past five as an underdog. The Blue Devils have had trouble of their own, going 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 4-12 ATS in their past 16 league games. The 'under' is 8-3 in the past 11 in this serie, including 5-1 in the past six at Cameron.

Louisville hosts Miami-Florida, and the Cardinals are 10 1/2-point favorites as of Saturday morning. The Hurricanes have struggled, going 2-7 ATS in their past nine on the road, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 league outings. The Cards are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 17-5-1 ATS in their past 23 as a favorite.

Big 12 Battles

West Virginia hosts Kansas State, and they're favored to win by 10 points. The Mountaineers have had difficulty stringing together wins and covers lately, as they're just 4-3 SU over their past seven games. They have also failed to cover back-to-back games since Dec. 23-30, going 4-7 ATS over the past 11 outings. K-State is 5-1 ATS in their past six as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their past eight on the road. However, they're just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five overall.

Kansas travels to Lubbock to battle Texas Tech, and they're just five-point favorites. The line might be way down since the Jayhawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six overall, 0-3-1 ATS in their past four as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five league outings. However, Rock Chalk is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in Lubbock, and is 5-2 in the past seven overall in this series.

Pac It Up, Pac It In

Arizona looks to get well against California. The Wildcats are 16-1 SU, and they topped Cal 67-62 as 2 1/2-point underdogs in Berkeley in the first meeting Dec. 30. Arizona has had trouble against the number lately, though, going just 1-4 ATS in the past five games. The Wildcats are 0-4-2 ATS in their past six home games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five league outings. Cal is just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, however.

Oregon hits the road for Southern California, looking for a bounce back after falling at UCLA on Thursday in excruciating fashion. It was the second loss in four games for the Ducks after a 17-game winning streak from Nov. 22-Jan. 26. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 overall, 9-1 in their past 10 against a team with a winning overall record and 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road. The Trojans have covered four stragiht, but they're 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at home and 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The Ducks have covered four in a row in the series, and five of the past six trips to USC.