Announcement

**Udog** · 01-19-2017, 08:22 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— South Carolina 57, Florida 53— Gators were 0-17 behind the arc.

— Upsets of the Night: Oklahoma (+17) 89, West Virginia 87 OT……and Fordham (+11.5) 69, VCU 67.

— Auburn 78, LSU 74— Bruce Pearl gets his 500th coaching win.

— Pacers 106, Kings 100— Sacramento’s Rudy Gay tore his achilles tendon.

— Florida State 83, Notre Dame 80— First ACC loss for the Irish.

— Washington 85, Colorado 83 OT— Fun game to watch, but some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen played. Seriously, just terrible defense by both teams. Buffs led by 17 in second half.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Did you know that Anheuser-Busch has the option to buy the first ad of the Super Bowl, and they’ve declined two of the past three years? Their research shows them that commercials later in the game get more attention that those early on. By doing that, they’re gambling the game isn’t a blowout and people stop paying attention.

Advertising is also a big money game. Over the last 35 Super Bowls, Anheuser Busch has spent over $520M in advertising.

12) Three Oregon football players went to the hospital after off-season workouts, and so the new strength coach of the Ducks has been suspended for a month, replaced by the old strength coach, who must be laughing up his sleeve.

The new strength coach came from South Florida with coach Willie Taggart; supposedly he does not have the college degree a person in his position usually has.

Signing Day is 13 days away; stuff like that can hurt your recruiting.

11) Back in 1960, the first year of the AFL, the Los Angeles Chargers had a damn good coaching staff. Sid Gillman was head coach; two of his assistants were Al Davis and Chuck Noll. Not bad.

10) Tony Romo has a steel rod in the collarbone that has been broken three times.

I mention this because the last couple of times I flew, the security person asked me if I had any steel rods in my body. Maybe I look like an NFL quarterback or maybe I just look old, you make the call but my preference is to think I look like a former signal caller.

9) Tennis player Nick Kyrgios was trailing 6-5 in the third set late Tuesday night in Australia when he actually hit a return shot between his legs, like it was nothing. Seriously, I’d be in traction if I tried to do what he did, even without any steel rods in my body.

I don’t know much about tennis, but this guy looks like a little like Giancarlo Stanton, resembles a Greek Adonis, but John McEnroe ripped Kyrgios after he lost his second round match, saying “…..he has about the #200 mental game.” Alrighty then.

8) Congrats to Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Pudge Rodriguez on getting into the Hall of Fame. Will be lot of people coming down from Montreal to Cooperstown in July, I’m pretty sure.

One other HOF note: if David Ortiz gets put in the Hall of Fame someday and that seems likely, then they need to put Edgar Martinez in also. His career on-base %age was .418. Four-Freakin’-eighteen.

Just because he played on the west coast shouldn’t mean he gets excluded.

7) Since 2010, your major league leader in home runs? Jose Bautista, with 249.

6) If I ever get involved in coaching basketball again, I’d be a strong advocate for spending eight minutes of EVERY practice with kids practicing all different kinds of layups. It really helps.

This is something from the Princeton school of coaching; I’m no fan of the Princeton offense itself, but if you’re lucky enough to have players who get the ball close to the basket, it is a big help to have guys who can finish plays. Watch Belmont in the OVC; they’re crafty around the basket and it helps them neutralize more athletic opponents.

I see it all season watching college hoop for 5-6 hours a night; some teams have kids who are uncomfortable when they have the ball around the basket, unless they can dunk it.

5) Surprising fact: Atlanta Falcons have four rookie starters on defense.

4) Over last two years, Clippers are 5-12 in games that Chris Paul missed; he is now out 6-8 weeks with a torn ligament in his thumb.

3) Baylor’s Johnathan Motley had 32 points, 20 rebounds against Texas Monday night; it is really hard to go 30-20 in a basketball game, you have to be totally dominant. Baylor got zero votes in the preseason college hoop poll, but now they’re a top 10 team.

2) Washington Huskies QB Jake Browning had shoulder surgery this week; they did a nice job of hiding his injury thru the season.

1— The following numbers are presented as facts, not as any sort of political statement, but they are facts, and they are interesting.

President Obama commuted 1,385 prison sentences in his eight years in office, 504 of which were life sentences. He also pardoned 212 people. This is more than the last 12 presidents did combined.

I don’t have an opinion on these stats, other than when you do something more than the 12 people who had your job before you (combined), it is an interesting statistic.

**Udog** · 01-19-2017, 08:42 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, January 19

Cavaliers won last four games with Phoenix but Suns covered six of last eight series games. Phoenix lost by 10-22 points in last two visits here. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. Suns lost three of last four games, covered five of last six; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as a road underdog- their last four games went over total. Cleveland lost three of last four games (under 3-1); they’re 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite.

Miami won nine of last ten games with Dallas, covered four of last five; Mavericks lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Last four series games stayed under. Dallas won its last three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a road underdog. Heat lost four of last five games, is 2-5 in last seven home games, 3-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Washington won nine of its last ten games with the Knicks (7-2-1 vs spread); Wizards won last five visits to Manhattan, with 3 of 5 wins by 3 or less points. Three of last four series games went over total. Washington won six of its last seven games, but they lost four of last five road games. Knicks lost five of last seven games but covered three of last four; they’re 1-5 in last six home games. Three of their last four home games stayed under.

Spurs won nine of last ten games with Denver (7-3 vs spread); Nuggets lost last four visits to Alamo (2-2 vs spread). Six of last eight series games went over total. Denver won/covered its last three games; they’re 9-6 as road underdogs. Last eight Nugget games went over the total. Spurs won nine of last 12 games, are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite. Over is 9-2 in San Antonio’s last 11 games.

Clippers are 7-12 without Paul the last two years. Clippers won nine of last ten games with Minnesota but are 3-3-1 in last seven series games; Timberwolves lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Minnesota lost six of last nine games; they’re 7-7 as a road underdog. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Clippers won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread) but are missing Griffin/Paul now. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

NBA

Thursday, January 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. CLEVELAND
Phoenix is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Phoenix's last 23 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix

7:30 PM
DALLAS vs. MIAMI
Dallas is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Dallas
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 20 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. SAN ANTONIO
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Denver's last 22 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
San Antonio is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

10:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. LA CLIPPERS
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-19-2017, 08:49 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, January 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (13 - 28) at CLEVELAND (29 - 11) - 1/19/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games in January games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (14 - 27) at MIAMI (12 - 30) - 1/19/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 364-301 ATS (+32.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 474-395 ATS (+39.5 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 311-259 ATS (+26.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
MIAMI is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (22 - 19) at NEW YORK (19 - 24) - 1/19/2017, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (17 - 23) at SAN ANTONIO (32 - 9) - 1/19/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 73-59 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 70-52 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 498-413 ATS (+43.7 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 300-240 ATS (+36.0 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 90-69 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 41-25 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (14 - 28) at LA CLIPPERS (29 - 14) - 1/19/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 199-244 ATS (-69.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 93-62 ATS (+24.8 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 86-118 ATS (-43.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-19-2017, 12:11 PM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, January 19

Minnesota @ LA Clippers

Game 709-710
January 19, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
118.292
LA Clippers
126.896
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 8 1/2
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 1 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-1 1/2); Under

Denver @ San Antonio

Game 707-708
January 19, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
115.446
San Antonio
132.339
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 17
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 12
222
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-12); Under

Washington @ New York

Game 705-706
January 19, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.037
New York
117.167
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 10
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-2); Under

Dallas @ Miami

Game 703-704
January 19, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
118.610
Miami
115.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
197
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2 1/2); Over

Phoenix @ Cleveland

Game 701-702
January 19, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
117.743
Cleveland
119.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 13
218
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+13); Over

**Udog** · 01-19-2017, 12:46 PM

How to get rich betting NBA back-to-back scenarios

The youthful Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the NBA's top teams in back-to-back situations at 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU).

Ask yourself a simple question before we dive into this week’s column: Have you come across a single NBA analyst, former player, friend or even twitter troll who has predicted anything but a Golden State-Cleveland showdown in this season’s NBA Finals?

While I’m virtually certain that Planet Earth contains at least one human being who believes that, perhaps, the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs or Houston Rockets will prevent us from the championship trilogy we appear destined to enjoy, the fact remains that the Warriors and Cavaliers boast such ridiculously impressive resumes that very few would be willing to bet against either team making it back to the NBA Finals.

Entering Wednesday night’s slate of action, Golden State and Cleveland ranked in the top five in the NBA in scoring, three-point percentage and a bevy of other statistical categories. But interestingly enough, there is one wagering category in which both the top seed in the Western Conference and the top seed in the Eastern Conference rank in the bottom five of the Association.

Boys and girls, if you plan to bet against the Warriors or Cavaliers, do it when either team is on the second half of a back-to-back stretch.

As of the close of business on Tuesday, January 16, LeBron James and the Cavaliers are just 2-6 against the spread this season when playing the second half of a back-to-back. As for Kevin Durant and the Warriors, Golden State is an abysmal 1-6 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back situation this season. Only Indiana (1-6 ATS) comes close to matching Golden State’s ATS futility as it pertains to this particular scenario.

A litany of reasons exist as to why certain teams struggle while others thrive when playing the second half of a back-to-back. Resting starters or established veterans, long travel, late nights and a lack of sleep are just a few of the possible reasons when it comes to the “why.” But now that we’re officially halfway through the 2016-2017 NBA season, it’s time to take a good, long look as to which teams excel and which clubs falter in this situation so we can better position ourselves to gain a potential edge over the bookmakers.

Entering Wednesday night, there were exactly 248 instances in which an NBA team played the second half of a back-to-back scenario this season:

Overall record straight-up: 101-147 (.407)
Overall record against the spread: 116-128-4 (.475)

At first glance, there really isn’t much to get excited about here. If we had bet against every single team every time they were playing in the second half of a back-to-back, we would barely have broken even up until this point.

But what if we were betting ON the top five clubs and AGAINST the bottom five franchises?

Top five teams in second half of a back-to-back: 33-10 ATS (.767)
Bottom five teams in second half of a back-to-back: 8-30 ATS (.210)

Granted, there was no way to know at the beginning of the season which teams would rank in the top five and which squads would rank in the bottom five at the midway point of the 2016-2017 NBA campaign. However, this should serve as useful information moving forward, as betting ON the top five and AGAINST the bottom five in the second half of a back-to-back has produced a combined record of 63-18 ATS this season (.777).

NBA teams in the second half of a back-to-back this season

*All records updated as of Wednesday, January 18.

Miami Heat: 7-1 ATS (2-6 SU)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU)
San Antonio Spurs: 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU)
Houston Rockets: 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU)
Memphis Grizzlies: 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU)
Atlanta Hawks: 6-3 ATS (6-3 SU)
Orlando Magic: 6-3 ATS (3-6 SU)
Toronto Raptors: 4-2-1 ATS (3-4 SU)
Los Angeles Clippers: 5-3 ATS (5-3 SU)
Phoenix Suns: 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU)
Boston Celtics: 5-4 ATS (6-3 SU)
Chicago Bulls: 5-5 ATS (4-6 SU)
New York Knicks: 4-5 ATS (1-8 SU)
Utah Jazz: 4-5-1 ATS (6-4 SU)
Sacramento Kings: 3-4-1 ATS (2-6 SU)
Los Angeles Lakers: 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU)
Brooklyn Nets: 2-3-1 ATS (0-6 SU)
Charlotte Hornets: 3-5 ATS (3-5 SU)
Denver Nuggets: 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU)
Philadelphia 76ers: 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU)
Washington Wizards: 3-5 ATS (1-7 SU)
Portland Trail Blazers: 3-6 ATS (3-6 SU)
New Orleans Pelicans: 3-6 ATS (3-6 SU)
Dallas Mavericks: 2-5 ATS (0-7 SU)
Cleveland Cavaliers: 2-6 ATS (3-5 SU)
Detroit Pistons: 2-6 ATS (2-6 SU)
Milwaukee Bucks: 2-6 ATS (2-6 SU)
Golden State Warriors: 1-6 ATS (6-1 SU)
Indiana Pacers: 1-6 ATS (1-6 SU)

Here’s your rundown of back-to-back scenarios to monitor as we head into the weekend:

THURSDAY

Wizards at Knicks (8:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

FRIDAY

None

SATURDAY

Trail Blazers at Celtics (5:00pm ET): Portland is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Blazers are 3-6 ATS.

Nets at Hornets (7:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

76ers at Hawks (7:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Bucks at Heat (7:30pm ET): Milwaukee is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Bucks are just 2-6 ATS.

Rockets at Grizzlies (8:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Pacers at Jazz (9:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

Kings at Bulls (9:00pm ET): Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup.

SUNDAY

Suns at Raptors (6:00pm ET): Phoenix is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Suns are 4-3 ATS.

Nuggets at Timberwolves (7:00pm ET): Denver is on the second half of a back-to-back. In those situations this season, the Nuggets are just 3-5 ATS.

**Udog** · 01-19-2017, 01:34 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, January 19

Phoenix at Cleveland, 7:05 PM ET
Phoenix: 12-27 ATS in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more
Cleveland: 27-12 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days

Dallas at Miami, 7:35 PM ET
Dallas: 83-57 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog
Miami: 40-59 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

Washington at New York, 8:05 PM ET
Washington: 5-16 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less
New York: 20-7 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games

Denver at San Antonio, 8:35 PM ET
Denver: 3-17 ATS off a road win
San Antonio: 19-9 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200

Minnesota at LA Clippers, 10:35 PM ET
Minnesota: 8-26 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread
Los Angeles: 9-1 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread

Announcement

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/19

Thursday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/19

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment