Announcement

**Udog** · 01-03-2017, 08:26 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

— Florida 30, Iowa 3— Hawkeyes lost their fifth bowl in a row, last three by an average score of 40-16.

— Wisconsin 24, Western Michigan 16— Broncos hung in there, but lost for first time this season.

— Portland State’s basketball team was 4-21 on the foul line in a game over the weekend- they lost 73-59 to Northern Colorado. Kids should be able to shoot 4-21 if they’re drunk.

— Average exit velocity on a major league home run last year was 103.4 mph.

— Out of 2,430 major league baseball games LY, seven ended on a bases-loaded walk.

— A 32-year-old Starbucks barista named Damon won more than $900,000 in the Westgate SuperContest, the most prestigious football handicapping contest in the world. He went 54-28-3 with his weekly picks. Life-changing money; good for him.

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) USC 52, Penn State 49— Tremendous game; Penn State scored TDs on seven straight possessions….and lost!!!! Sam Darnold is Trojans’ freshman QB who will be very wealthy in a couple years. Looks a little like Andy Dalton, plays a little like Drew Brees.

12) Mike Krzyzewski is having a back operation Friday, will take a leave of absence from his job as Duke’s basketball coach. This happened once before, in 1996 and it didn’t go well- Blue Devils went 13-18 that year and Pete Gaudet, the interim coach then, wound up teaching phys ed at an Ohio college.

Jeff Capel will be the interim coach now; he was the best player on that ’96 Duke team. He’s been the head coach at VCU/Oklahoma, so he is capable, but very big shoes to fill.

11) Couple of other Duke-related issues:
a) When does Grayson Allen come back? I said all along he would be back for the Florida State game on January 10; maybe he comes back on Saturday when Capel coaches his first game.

b) Every Duke assistant coach is a former Duke player; this is a bad idea- they need an older guy who Coach K can trust to give him honest input. A former player is less likely to disagree with his boss. Joe Paterno needed someone like that at Penn State, to avoid the situation he wound up in.

10) I met a guy in Las Vegas who owns a home in Laguna Beach, CA, where the chairman of the home planning board is Eve Plumb, better known as Jan from the Brady Bunch. This guy was at odds with Ms Plumb for most of the last year over his house being remodeled. At odds to the point that she accused him of stalking/terrorizing her. Fun times.

I had no idea you needed approval to remodel your home, but still, it must be nice to live near a beach.

9) Lane Kiffin is out as OC at Alabama; he won’t be at the national title game. Nick Saban is a control freak and apparently Kiffin’s act became a bit too dramatic, so he was told to take a hike. Steve Sarkisian will be the Alabama OC. Clemson has to be a live underdog, right?

8) This week I heard a college basketball analyst say, “He isn’t a real high percentage shooter” which is a nice way of saying, “Damn he is a lousy shooter.”

7) There are 40 bowl games that are jammed with Chik-fil-A commercials; least they could do if they show all these commercials is to put a Chik-fil-A in the Albany area, right?

6) There were two twins born in San Diego late Saturday night; one was born at 11:56pm, the other at midnight, meaning there are twin girls who were born in different years. Unusual.

5) Do people still use pencils? I saw a pencil in a movie the other night; had forgotten about them.

4) When I see NBA players taking nights off to “rest” I think of this: John Stockton played all 82 games in 17 of his 19 NBA seasons. Players are becoming more babyfied (is that a word?) these days. Kids in AAU play 2-3 games a day, it isn’t that hard to play 82 games in 162 days.

3) Tyreke Hill has been a huge steal for the KC Chiefs, a 5th-round pick who has been dynamic as hell as a WR/returner. Why did he slip in the draft? He had domestic violence issues while at Oklahoma State, so teams laid off drafting him. Whoops.

You’re going to see kids in Hill’s shoes get drafted higher this April, because teams have to be kicking themselves for passing on Hill.

You lose you get fired and no one gives you bonus points if you passed on drafting a kid because he got into a fight with his girlfriend. It is a cut-throat business where you have to win to keep your job and talented players help you win.

2) Pet Peeve #1 of 2017: Red zone efficiency in football. Instead of TD %age, it is something that needs to be measured by points per possession.

Say Team A has three trips to red zone and kicks three FGs, that is 0%, but nine points.

Team B scores one TD, goes for 2 and makes it; they also lose two fumbles in red zone.

Team B has a 33% TD rate in red zone but only 2.67 pts/possession. Team A has 0% but 3.00 ppp. Points per possession is a more accurate measure of efficiency.

1) Over last three years in NFL Wild Card round, road team is 8-4 SU, 5-1 in games involving the #’s 3-6 seeds.

**Udog** · 01-03-2017, 08:29 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (11 - 23) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 24) - 1/3/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 111-155 ATS (-59.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH (22 - 13) at BOSTON (20 - 14) - 1/3/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 47-34 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 122-159 ATS (-52.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 100-134 ATS (-47.4 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
BOSTON is 99-136 ATS (-50.6 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (17 - 18) at DETROIT (16 - 20) - 1/3/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games this season.
INDIANA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DETROIT is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (23 - 10) at SAN ANTONIO (27 - 7) - 1/3/2017, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 974-846 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 66-49 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 495-411 ATS (+42.9 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 147-102 ATS (+34.8 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 323-267 ATS (+29.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 200-139 ATS (+47.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 296-238 ATS (+34.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 86-66 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 2-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (16 - 17) at DALLAS (10 - 24) - 1/3/2017, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (10 - 25) at PHOENIX (10 - 25) - 1/3/2017, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-0 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-0 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SACRAMENTO (14 - 19) at DENVER (14 - 20) - 1/3/2017, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 5-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 5-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
7 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (22 - 14) at LA LAKERS (12 - 25) - 1/3/2017, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 5-4 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 8-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-03-2017, 08:30 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 3

Timberwolves are 5-10 on road this season, 1-3 as road favorites; three of their last our road games stayed under the total. 76ers lost six of last eight games, are 1-4 in last five games as a home underdog. Three of their last four games went over total. Minnesota is 7-3 in its last ten games with Philly; they lost by 9-10 points in last two visits here. Home side won last four series games. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games.

Jazz won their last four games; they’re 1-6 as a road underdog (favorites are 14-2 vs spread in Utah road games). Under is 7-1 in last eight Jazz games. Boston won seven of last nine games; they’re 2-7 vs spread in last nine home games. Over is 6-0-1 in Celtics’ last seven games. Celtics won eight of last ten games with Utah, winning last five played here (3-0-2 vs spread). Three of last four series games stayed under.

Indiana lost six of last seven road games, is 3-8 as a road underdog. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Detroit lost seven of last nine games, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as a home favorite. Under is 6-2 in their last eight home games. Pacers won six of last seven games with Detroit; winning three of last four visits to Motor City. Over is 3-2 in last five series games played here.

Toronto won five of last seven games; they’re 5-1-1 as a road underdog. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. San Antonio won eight of last ten games; they won last seven home games, covered last six. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Spurs won eight of last ten games with Toronto; home side won last five series games. Raptors lost last four visits here (1-3 vs spread). Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Washington won three of last four games but lost six of last eight on road; they’re 5-9 vs spread on road. Three of their last four games stayed under. Dallas lost three of last four games, is 6-4 vs spread in its last ten home games. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Mavericks won nine of last ten games with Washington, covering six of last seven; Wizards lost four of last five visits to Dallas (3-2 vs spread). Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.

Heat lost its last five games but covered three of last four on road; they’re 9-6 vs spread away from home. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Phoenix lost eight of last ten games, is 4-9 vs spread in its last 13 home games. Suns’ last three games stayed under total. Miami won its last ten games with Phoenix (9-1 vs spread); they won/covered last five visits to the desert. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Sacramento lost last two games by 13-14 to Portland/Memphis; they’re 8-11-1 vs spread on the road this season. Three of Kings’ last four games went over. Nuggets lost four of last six games; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine home games. Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Kings won six of last eight games with Denver, winning four of last five visits here. Last seven series games went over total.

Grizzlies won four of last six games, are 4-1 as road favorites. Four of their last five games went over the total. Lakers lost 14 of their last 17 games, are 6-5 vs spread as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Lakers lost nine of last ten games with Memphis, covering one of last five; Grizzlies won four of last five visits here (1-3-1 vs spread). Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games.

**Udog** · 01-03-2017, 08:32 AM

NBA

Tuesday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Minnesota is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

7:30 PM
UTAH vs. BOSTON
Utah is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Boston
Utah is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Utah

7:30 PM
INDIANA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indiana's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. SAN ANTONIO
Toronto is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home

9:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Sacramento's last 16 games
Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Denver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Sacramento

9:00 PM
MIAMI vs. PHOENIX
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

10:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
LA Lakers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/3

Tuesday's NBA Trends and Indexes - 1/3

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment